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ANTA NASDAQ

Antalpha Platform Holding Company
1W: -18.3% 1M: -38.0% 3M: -55.9% YTD: -74.6% 1Y: -80.3%
$2.32
-0.24 (-9.38%)
 
Weekly Expected Move ±14.1%
$2 $2 $2 $3 $3
NASDAQ · Financial Services · Financial - Credit Services · Tech Score Sell · Power 34 · $55.7M mcap · 3M float · 0.246% daily turnover · Short 35% of daily vol

Edge Score

Quantitative competitive moat analysis scoring five pillars of durable advantage — cost leadership, brand intangibles, switching costs, network effects, and efficient scale — using industry percentile rankings on a 0–100 scale.

WEAK EDGE
44.7 / 100
NoneWeakNarrowWide
Primary source: Switching Costs  ·  ROIC: -0.7%
Cost Advantage
44
Intangibles
39
Switching Cost
69
Network Effect
19
Scale
40
The Edge Score quantifies a company's competitive moat using five pillars: Cost Advantage (20%, operating margin and SG&A efficiency vs industry peers), Intangible Assets (25%, gross margin premium, R&D intensity, brand pricing power), Switching Costs (25%, revenue stability, earnings consistency, customer retention proxied by operating leverage), Network Effects (15%, revenue growth with expanding margins, market share dominance), and Efficient Scale (15%, market concentration, ROIC sustainability). Each pillar is scored 0–100 using industry percentile rankings, then weighted into a composite. Wide ≥ 70, Narrow ≥ 55, Weak ≥ 40, None < 40. ANTA shows a Weak competitive edge (44.7/100) — limited structural advantages that may face competitive pressure. The primary source of advantage is Switching Costs. Negative ROIC of -0.7% indicates the company is currently destroying value, though this may reflect a growth investment phase.

Analyst Insights

Wall Street analyst consensus based on price targets and buy/sell/hold recommendations from institutional research coverage over the trailing 12 months.

Analyst Price Targets
$8
Low
$8
Avg Target
$8
High
Based on 1 analyst since Aug 19, 2026 earnings
Analyst Recommendations
Strong Buy: 0Buy: 1Hold: 0Sell: 0Strong Sell: 0
Rating Summary
ConsensusBuy
Avg Target$7.50
Analysts1
Consensus Change History
DateFieldFromTo
2026-03-05 _new_coverage None ADDED
Price Target Change History
DateFirmAnalystOldNewChangeUpside @ CallStock@Call
2026-08-20 B.Riley Financial Hal Goetsch Initiated $8 — +85.2% $4.05

Financial Rating

Composite financial health rating (A+ to F) based on discounted cash flow valuation, return on equity, return on assets, debt-to-equity leverage, and relative P/E and P/B multiples.

C+
Oct 02, 2026
DCF
1
ROE
2
ROA
4
D/E
1
P/E
1
P/B
3
The Financial Rating evaluates six fundamental factors — discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation, return on equity (ROE), return on assets (ROA), debt-to-equity leverage (D/E), and relative price-to-earnings (P/E) and price-to-book (P/B) multiples — each scored 1–5. ANTA receives an overall rating of C+. Strongest factors: ROA (4/5). Areas of concern: DCF (1/5), ROE (2/5), D/E (1/5), P/E (1/5).
Rating Change History
DateFromTo
2026-10-01 C C+
2026-08-20 C+ C
2026-08-03 B- C+
2026-05-20 C+ B-
2026-04-21 B- C+
2026-04-01 C B-
2026-03-05 C- C

InsiderStreet Scorecard

Proprietary multi-factor scorecard rating companies across seven fundamental dimensions — profitability, balance sheet strength, earnings quality, growth, value, momentum, and safety — each scored 0–100.

★ ★ ★ ★ ★ 9 Grade D
Profitability
16
Balance Sheet
41
Earnings Quality
45
Growth
70
Value
37
Momentum
0
Safety
30
Cash Flow
18
The InsiderStreet Scorecard rates companies across eight dimensions: Profitability (margins, ROA, ROE), Balance Sheet (leverage, liquidity, coverage), Earnings Quality (accruals, cash conversion), Growth (revenue and earnings trajectory), Value (P/E, P/B, earnings yield, Graham criteria), Momentum (revenue and earnings acceleration), Safety (Altman Z-Score risk adjustment), and Cash Flow (operating cash flow quality, FCF conversion, cash coverage). The overall score blends 35% quality, 35% value, and 30% momentum, with a penalty for distress-zone Altman scores. ANTA scores highest in Growth (70/100) and lowest in Momentum (0/100). A grade of D flags significant fundamental concerns across multiple dimensions.

Risk & Quality Signals

Academic financial models used by institutional investors to assess bankruptcy risk, earnings manipulation, financial strength, and credit quality.

Altman-B Score
1.36
Distress Zone
Piotroski F-Score
6/9
✓ ✗ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
Beneish M-Score
-1.66
Possible Manipulator
Ohlson O-Score
-4.94
Bankruptcy prob: 0.7%
Low Risk
Credit Rating
B
Score: 28.6/100
Trend: Improving
Earnings Quality
25/100
OCF/NI: -14.80x
Accruals: 0.9%
The Altman-B Score replaces the traditional Z-Score for banks and financial institutions. It weights equity-to-assets, return on assets, retained earnings, market value coverage, and cash reserves — metrics that better capture bank solvency than manufacturing-oriented ratios. ANTA scores 1.36, placing it in the Distress Zone (safe > 3.0, distress < 1.5). Historically, companies in this range face elevated bankruptcy risk. The Piotroski F-Score (2000) is a 9-point binary checklist — four profitability tests (positive ROA, positive cash flow, improving ROA, cash flow exceeding net income), three leverage tests (declining debt ratio, improving current ratio, no share dilution), and two efficiency tests (improving gross margin, improving asset turnover). Each pass scores 1 point. ANTA scores 6/9, indicating moderate financial health — some areas of strength offset by weaknesses in others. The Beneish M-Score (1999) is an 8-variable model that detects earnings manipulation by comparing year-over-year changes in receivables, gross margins, asset quality, sales growth, depreciation, SG&A, leverage, and accruals. Scores above −1.78 statistically resemble past manipulators. ANTA's score of -1.66 exceeds the −1.78 red flag threshold — this does not confirm manipulation but indicates the earnings profile resembles past manipulators statistically. The Ohlson O-Score (1980) is a 9-variable logistic regression that estimates bankruptcy probability using firm size, leverage, working capital, current ratio, profitability (ROA), cash flow coverage, negative equity flag, consecutive losses flag, and earnings trajectory. The raw score is converted to a probability via logistic transformation. ANTA's implied 0.7% bankruptcy probability is well within safe territory. Our Credit Rating model scores companies on five weighted components — solvency (30%), earning power (25%), leverage (20%), liquidity (15%), and cash flow quality (10%) — then blends the absolute score with sector and industry peer rankings. For companies with large buyback programs, equity is adjusted by adding back cumulative 5-year repurchases (capped at 80% of FCF generated) to avoid penalizing shareholder-friendly capital allocation. ANTA receives an estimated rating of B (score: 28.6/100), with a improving trend. The Earnings Quality score measures how well reported earnings are backed by real cash. It evaluates the operating cash flow to net income ratio (OCF/NI ≥ 1.0 means every dollar of earnings is cash-backed) and the accruals ratio (the gap between earnings and cash flow relative to assets — lower is better). ANTA's score of 25/100 is low — reported earnings may not be fully supported by cash flows.

Valuation

Key valuation multiples comparing the stock's market price to its earnings, revenue, book value, and cash flows. Lower multiples may indicate relative undervaluation versus peers.

P/E
38.67x
PEG
-0.60x
P/S
0.75x
P/B
0.50x
P/FCF
-10.13x
P/OCF
—
EV/EBITDA
-153.26x
EV/Revenue
7.20x
EV/EBIT
-127.38x
EV/FCF
-44.94x
Earnings Yield
0.66%
FCF Yield
-9.87%
Shareholder Yield
0.00%
Graham Number
$1.86
Equity-based multiples (P/E, P/B, P/FCF) compare the stock price to per-share fundamentals and are affected by capital structure. Enterprise value multiples (EV/EBITDA, EV/Revenue, EV/FCF) strip out debt and cash, making them more useful for cross-company comparisons regardless of how companies are financed. The Graham Number — √(22.5 × EPS × Book Value) — is Benjamin Graham's formula for the maximum price a defensive investor should pay. At 38.7x earnings, ANTA commands a growth premium. Graham's intrinsic value formula yields $1.86 per share, 25% below the current price.

DuPont Decomposition (5-Factor)

The 5-factor DuPont framework breaks Return on Equity into its component drivers — tax efficiency, interest burden, operating profitability, asset utilization, and financial leverage — to reveal what truly drives shareholder returns.

Tax Burden
-0.210
NI / EBT
×
Interest Burden
0.901
EBT / EBIT
×
EBIT Margin
-0.057
EBIT / Rev
×
Asset Turnover
0.051
Rev / Assets
×
Equity Multiplier
13.651
Assets / Equity
=
ROE
0.7%
The 5-factor DuPont identity decomposes ROE as: Tax Burden × Interest Burden × EBIT Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier = ROE. This reveals whether returns are driven by operating performance, financial leverage, or tax efficiency — three very different sources of profitability. ANTA's ROE of 0.7% is driven by financial leverage (equity multiplier: 13.65x). Note: high leverage means ROE is amplified by debt rather than operational performance. A tax burden ratio of -0.21 suggests the company retains less than 60% of pre-tax earnings after taxes.

Graham-Dodd Adjusted Valuation

Our adaptation of Graham's growth formula (Fair P/E = 8.5 + 2g) from The Intelligent Investor. The classic version relies on analyst growth projections, which can be unreliable. This adjusted model substitutes the company's realized 3-year EPS CAGR — a backward-looking, verifiable measure of actual earnings power — grounding the valuation in demonstrated performance rather than forecasts.

Two adjustments we make, and why. Growth is capped at 15%. Graham defined g as expected growth over the next seven to ten years, not last year's rate. Across US companies since 1994 the median realized 7-year EPS growth is 5–8% regardless of how fast a company grew beforehand, and of 4,457 company-quarters that grew faster than 200%, none sustained it. Uncapped, the formula assigned fair multiples in the hundreds to companies that had never held that rate — and scored worse than simply reading the P/E. Capped, it carries real information. The verdict has three states, not two. Tested over 377,249 stock-months, this ratio only separates outcomes at its extremes: below 0.25 beat the universe by 1.3 points a year, above 3.0 lagged by 2.7, and everything in between sat inside a one-point band. Rather than call two-thirds of the market "undervalued" on a threshold of 1.0, we say Neutral where the model cannot tell — which is most of the time.

Adj. Growth Rate
15.00%
Fair P/E
38.50x
Intrinsic Value
$1.27
Price/Value
3.95x
Margin of Safety
-294.67%
Premium
294.67%
Assessment
Overvalued
Graham's classic formula uses analyst-projected growth to estimate a fair P/E (8.5 + 2g). Our adjusted version replaces that projection with ANTA's realized 15.0% 3-year EPS CAGR, capped at 15% — demonstrated performance rather than forecasts, held to a rate companies have historically sustained. ANTA trades at a 295% premium to its adjusted intrinsic value of $1.27, suggesting the market is pricing in future growth beyond what historical earnings support. The adjusted fair P/E of 38.5x compares to the current market P/E of 38.7x.

Profitability Trends

Historical profitability ratios tracking how efficiently the company converts revenue into returns for shareholders over time.

Leverage & Solvency Trends

Debt and liquidity metrics showing the company's financial leverage and ability to meet short-term and long-term obligations.

Efficiency & Working Capital Trends

Operating efficiency metrics measuring how quickly the company converts inventory to sales, collects receivables, and manages its cash conversion cycle.

Growth Trends (YoY %)

Year-over-year growth rates for key financial metrics, showing the trajectory of revenue, earnings, and cash flow generation.

Earnings Stability

R-squared of linear regression measuring how predictably revenue, earnings, and margins follow a trend over the trailing 5 years. 1.0 = perfectly predictable; lower values indicate erratic or cyclical behavior.

Monte Carlo Price Simulation

Geometric Brownian Motion with 1,000 antithetic paths over 1 year, seeded from 349 days of historical volatility. Percentile bands show the range of statistically plausible outcomes — this is a statistical model, not a forecast.

Current Price
$2.32
Median 1Y
$0.40
5th Pctile
$0.11
95th Pctile
$1.45
Ann. Volatility
84.2%
Analyst Target
$7.50
25th–75th percentile 5th–95th percentile Median path Historical Analyst target

Workforce & Productivity

Workforce efficiency metrics measuring revenue, profit, and R&D spend per employee — key indicators of operational leverage and human capital productivity.

Employees
113
Revenue / Employee
$705,122
Rev: $79,678,739
Profit / Employee
$163,629
NI: $18,490,072
SGA / Employee
—
Avg labor cost proxy

Scaling Efficiency

All Ratios & Metrics

Complete fundamental data with up to 20 periods of history, sparkline trends, and current values across 13 categories and 130+ financial metrics.

Profitability
Metric Trend Q2'25 Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Q2'26 Current
ROE 0.7% 1.8% 9.5% 11.3% 0.7% 0.74%
ROA 0.0% 0.1% 0.5% 1.2% 0.1% 0.05%
ROIC -0.0% 0.1% 1.7% 19.2% -0.7% -0.70%
ROCE -0.2% 0.1% 0.8% 3.1% -0.7% -0.65%
Gross Margin 40.9% 49.9% 44.7% 46.3% 49.9% 49.93%
Operating Margin -2.7% 9.3% 45.0% 32.0% -2.1% -2.05%
Net Margin 4.0% 10.0% 33.3% 13.0% -1.0% -1.03%
EBITDA Margin -2.7% 9.3% 58.9% 39.3% -2.4% -2.40%
FCF Margin -17.4% -19.7% -15.3% -15.0% -16.0% -16.03%
OCF Margin -17.2% -19.5% -15.1% -14.8% -15.8% -15.81%
ROIC Economic snapshot only -0.69%
Cash ROA snapshot only -1.22%
Cash ROIC snapshot only -2.23%
CROIC snapshot only -2.26%
NOPAT Margin snapshot only -4.93%
Pretax Margin snapshot only -5.09%
R&D / Revenue snapshot only 0.00%
SGA / Revenue snapshot only 4.97%
SBC / Revenue snapshot only 0.18%
Valuation
Metric Trend Q2'25 Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Q2'26 Current
P/E Ratio 413.81 118.93 18.15 14.33 151.95 38.667
P/S Ratio 16.41 7.82 3.54 2.55 1.62 0.753
P/B Ratio 2.75 2.16 1.72 1.63 1.07 0.497
P/FCF -94.19 -39.62 -23.10 -16.94 -10.13 -10.128
P/OCF — — — — — —
EV/EBITDA -2029.40 1456.73 45.56 6.93 -153.26 -153.261
EV/Revenue 55.56 35.89 13.52 2.23 7.20 7.202
EV/EBIT -2029.40 1456.73 46.00 7.04 -127.38 -127.379
EV/FCF -318.90 -181.85 -88.28 -14.83 -44.94 -44.942
Earnings Yield 0.2% 0.8% 5.5% 7.0% 0.7% 0.66%
FCF Yield -1.1% -2.5% -4.3% -5.9% -9.9% -9.87%
Price/Tangible Book snapshot only 1.328
EV/Gross Profit snapshot only 15.344
Shareholder Yield snapshot only 0.00%
Graham Number snapshot only $1.86
Leverage & Solvency
Metric Trend Q2'25 Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Q2'26 Current
Current Ratio 1.05 1.09 4.76 2.38 1.25 1.252
Quick Ratio 1.05 1.09 4.76 2.38 1.25 1.252
Debt/Equity 6.90 7.80 8.60 4.06 3.72 3.721
Net Debt/Equity 6.56 7.74 4.84 -0.20 3.68 3.682
Debt/Assets 0.36 0.37 0.43 0.41 0.43 0.434
Debt/EBITDA -1504.18 1148.27 59.78 19.75 -119.96 -119.963
Net Debt/EBITDA -1429.99 1139.33 33.64 -0.99 -118.72 -118.723
Interest Coverage — — — — — —
Equity Multiplier 19.26 21.26 20.11 9.80 8.58 8.578
Cash Ratio snapshot only 0.013
Cash to Debt snapshot only 0.010
FCF to Debt snapshot only -0.028
Defensive Interval snapshot only 162.7 days
Efficiency & Turnover
Metric Trend Q2'25 Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Q2'26 Current
Asset Turnover 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.07 0.05 0.051
Inventory Turnover — — — — — —
Receivables Turnover 2.51 3.31 0.06 7.21 7.39 7.391
Payables Turnover — — — 0.11 — —
DSO 146 110 6382 51 49 49.4 days
DIO 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 days
DPO 0 0 0 3364 0 —
Cash Conversion Cycle 146 110 6382 -3314 49 —
Cash Velocity snapshot only 17.162
Capital Intensity snapshot only 12.998
Growth (YoY)
Metric Trend Q2'25 Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Q2'26 Current
Revenue — — — — 3.3% 3.35%
Net Income — — — — 17.1% 17.13%
EPS — — — — 18.1% 18.10%
FCF — — — — -3.0% -3.00%
EBITDA — — — — -6.5% -6.46%
Op. Income — — — — -8.9% -8.92%
OCF Growth snapshot only -3.00%
Asset Growth snapshot only -50.78%
Equity Growth snapshot only 10.48%
Debt Growth snapshot only -40.47%
Shares Change snapshot only -0.82%
Growth Quality
Metric Trend Q2'25 Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Q2'26 Current
Revenue Stability — — — — — —
Earnings Stability — — — — — —
Margin Stability — — — — — —
Rev. Growth Consistency 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.50 0.500
Earn. Growth Consistency 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.50 0.500
FCF Positive Streak 0 0 0 0 0 0
Earnings Persistence — — — — — —
Earnings Smoothness — — — — 0.84 0.842
ROE Trend — — — — — —
Gross Margin Trend — — — — — —
FCF Margin Trend — — — — — —
Sustainable Growth Rate 0.7% 1.8% 9.5% 11.3% 0.7% 0.74%
Internal Growth Rate 0.0% 0.1% 0.5% 1.2% 0.1% 0.05%
Cash Flow Quality
Metric Trend Q2'25 Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Q2'26 Current
OCF/Net Income -4.33 -2.96 -0.78 -0.83 -14.80 -14.801
FCF/OCF 1.01 1.01 1.01 1.01 1.01 1.014
FCF/Net Income snapshot only -15.003
CapEx/Revenue 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.22%
CapEx/Depreciation snapshot only 0.227
Accruals Ratio 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.009
Sloan Accruals snapshot only -0.002
Cash Flow Adequacy snapshot only -73.058
Earnings Quality Score snapshot only 0.250
Dividends & Buybacks
Metric Trend Q2'25 Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Q2'26 Current
Dividend Yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.00%
Dividend/Share $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Payout Ratio 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.00%
FCF Payout Ratio — — — — — —
Total Payout Ratio 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.00%
Div. Increase Streak — — — — — —
Chowder Number — — — — — —
Buyback Yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.00%
Net Buyback Yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.00%
Total Shareholder Return 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.00%
DuPont Factors
Metric Trend Q2'25 Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Q2'26 Current
Tax Burden (NI/EBT) 0.72 0.77 0.60 0.52 -0.21 -0.210
Interest Burden (EBT/EBIT) -2.01 3.45 1.11 1.07 0.90 0.901
EBIT Margin -0.03 0.02 0.29 0.32 -0.06 -0.057
Asset Turnover 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.07 0.05 0.051
Equity Multiplier 19.26 21.26 20.11 9.80 13.65 13.651
Per Share
Metric Trend Q2'25 Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Q2'26 Current
EPS (Diluted TTM) $0.03 $0.10 $0.49 $0.53 $0.03 $0.03
Book Value/Share $4.19 $5.66 $5.18 $4.66 $4.67 $7.65
Tangible Book/Share $4.19 $5.66 $4.24 $3.84 $3.77 $3.77
Revenue/Share $0.70 $1.56 $2.51 $2.97 $3.08 $3.08
FCF/Share $-0.12 $-0.31 $-0.38 $-0.45 $-0.49 $0.00
OCF/Share $-0.12 $-0.30 $-0.38 $-0.44 $-0.49 $0.00
Cash/Share $1.43 $0.34 $19.50 $19.84 $0.18 $0.18
EBITDA/Share $-0.02 $0.04 $0.75 $0.96 $-0.14 $-0.14
Debt/Share $28.93 $44.14 $44.58 $18.90 $17.37 $17.37
Net Debt/Share $27.51 $43.79 $25.09 $-0.94 $17.19 $17.19
Academic Models
Metric Trend Q2'25 Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Q2'26 Current
Altman-B Score — — — — — 1.359
Altman Z-Prime snapshot only 0.689
Piotroski F-Score 2 2 2 2 6 6
Beneish M-Score — — — — -1.66 -1.662
Ohlson O-Score snapshot only -4.937
ROIC (Greenblatt) snapshot only -5.13%
Net-Net WC snapshot only $-15.55
EVA snapshot only $-56125383.94
Credit
Metric Trend Q2'25 Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Q2'26 Current
Credit Rating snapshot only B
Credit Score 19.42 17.78 34.91 67.50 28.61 28.607
Credit Grade snapshot only 15
Credit Trend snapshot only 9.183
Implied Spread (bps) snapshot only 750.000
Industry Credit Rank snapshot only 11
Sector Credit Rank snapshot only 12

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