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ARX NYSE

Accelerant Holdings
1W: -0.1% 1M: +0.3% 3M: +34.6% YTD: +27.0% 1Y: +59.8%
$19.81
-0.01 (-0.05%)
After Hours: $19.86 (+0.05, +0.23%)
Weekly Expected Move ±0.3%
$20 $20 $20 $20 $20
NYSE · Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty · Tech Score Buy · Power 64 · $4.3B mcap · 57M float · 5.57% daily turnover · Short 22% of daily vol
Credit Risk of going bust: not rated, financial company (lending is its business) Bonds: none of note held by US funds details ▾
Not rated: lending and leverage are a financial company's business, which the model misreads.
US fund filings (SEC N-PORT) show under $25M of this company's bonds, so there is no bond page. Its debt may be bank loans or privately placed. How these are computed.

Edge Score

Quantitative competitive moat analysis scoring five pillars of durable advantage — cost leadership, brand intangibles, switching costs, network effects, and efficient scale — using industry percentile rankings on a 0–100 scale.

WEAK EDGE
45.6 / 100
NoneWeakNarrowWide
Primary source: Switching Costs  ·  ROIC: -12.0%
Cost Advantage
41
Intangibles
43
Switching Cost
67
Network Effect
38
Scale
28
The Edge Score quantifies a company's competitive moat using five pillars: Cost Advantage (20%, operating margin and SG&A efficiency vs industry peers), Intangible Assets (25%, gross margin premium, R&D intensity, brand pricing power), Switching Costs (25%, revenue stability, earnings consistency, customer retention proxied by operating leverage), Network Effects (15%, revenue growth with expanding margins, market share dominance), and Efficient Scale (15%, market concentration, ROIC sustainability). Each pillar is scored 0–100 using industry percentile rankings, then weighted into a composite. Wide ≥ 70, Narrow ≥ 55, Weak ≥ 40, None < 40. ARX shows a Weak competitive edge (45.6/100) — limited structural advantages that may face competitive pressure. The primary source of advantage is Switching Costs. Negative ROIC of -12.0% indicates the company is currently destroying value, though this may reflect a growth investment phase.

Analyst Insights

Wall Street analyst consensus based on price targets and buy/sell/hold recommendations from institutional research coverage over the trailing 12 months.

Analyst Price Targets
$20
Low
$20
Avg Target
$20
High
Based on 2 analysts since Aug 13, 2026 earnings
Analyst Recommendations
Strong Buy: 0Buy: 5Hold: 4Sell: 1Strong Sell: 0
Rating Summary
ConsensusBuy
Avg Target$20.25
Analysts2
Price Target Change History
DateFirmAnalystOldNewChangeUpside @ CallStock@Call
2026-08-14 RBC Capital — $18 $20 +2 +3.5% $19.57
2026-08-13 Piper Sandler Paul Newsome $19 $20 +1 +4.0% $19.46
2026-07-06 Morgan Stanley — $17 $14 -3 +1.7% $13.77
2026-06-16 BMO Capital — $22 $17 -6 +30.8% $13.00
2026-06-01 Raymond James — $13 $19 +6 +19.1% $15.95
2026-05-26 Piper Sandler — $13 $19 +6 +10.1% $17.25
2026-05-21 UBS — Initiated $16 — -4.1% $16.69
2026-02-23 Piper Sandler Paul Newsome $18 $13 -5 +26.7% $10.26
2026-02-17 Raymond James Gregory Peters Initiated $13 — +21.8% $10.67
2026-01-07 Goldman Sachs Robert Cox $20 $20 +0 +28.1% $15.61
2025-12-03 JMP Securities — Initiated $20 — +41.3% $14.15
2025-11-17 Morgan Stanley — $18 $17 -1 +26.9% $13.40
2025-10-31 RBC Capital — $29 $18 -11 +54.6% $11.64
2025-10-07 Morgan Stanley — Initiated $18 — +22.3% $14.72
2025-10-06 Piper Sandler — $35 $18 -17 +20.8% $14.90
2025-10-06 Goldman Sachs Robert Cox $30 $20 -10 +30.9% $14.90
2025-09-10 BMO Capital — $34 $22 -12 +14.5% $19.65
2025-08-29 RBC Capital Rowland Mayor Initiated $29 — +51.3% $19.17
2025-08-29 Wells Fargo — $28 $23 -5 +6.6% $21.57
2025-08-18 Wells Fargo Elyse Greenspan Initiated $28 — -1.2% $28.33
2025-08-18 Piper Sandler Paul Newsome Initiated $35 — +23.5% $28.33
2025-08-18 Goldman Sachs Robert Cox Initiated $30 — +5.9% $28.33
2025-08-18 BMO Capital Michael Zaremski Initiated $34 — +20.0% $28.33

Financial Rating

Composite financial health rating (A+ to F) based on discounted cash flow valuation, return on equity, return on assets, debt-to-equity leverage, and relative P/E and P/B multiples.

C+
Oct 27, 2026
DCF
4
ROE
1
ROA
1
D/E
4
P/E
1
P/B
1
The Financial Rating evaluates six fundamental factors — discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation, return on equity (ROE), return on assets (ROA), debt-to-equity leverage (D/E), and relative price-to-earnings (P/E) and price-to-book (P/B) multiples — each scored 1–5. ARX receives an overall rating of C+. Strongest factors: DCF (4/5), D/E (4/5). Areas of concern: ROE (1/5), ROA (1/5), P/E (1/5), P/B (1/5).
Rating Change History
DateFromTo
2026-10-12 C C+
2026-08-17 C+ C
2026-08-14 C C+
2026-08-13 C+ C
2026-08-12 C C+
2026-08-06 C+ C
2026-08-03 C C+
2026-07-25 C+ C
2026-07-01 C C+
2026-05-18 C- C

InsiderStreet Scorecard

Proprietary multi-factor scorecard rating companies across seven fundamental dimensions — profitability, balance sheet strength, earnings quality, growth, value, momentum, and safety — each scored 0–100.

★ ★ ★ ★ ★ 31 Grade D
Profitability
48
Balance Sheet
61
Earnings Quality
26
Growth
—
Value
37
Momentum
—
Safety
0
Cash Flow
45
The InsiderStreet Scorecard rates companies across eight dimensions: Profitability (margins, ROA, ROE), Balance Sheet (leverage, liquidity, coverage), Earnings Quality (accruals, cash conversion), Growth (revenue and earnings trajectory), Value (P/E, P/B, earnings yield, Graham criteria), Momentum (revenue and earnings acceleration), Safety (Altman Z-Score risk adjustment), and Cash Flow (operating cash flow quality, FCF conversion, cash coverage). The overall score blends 35% quality, 35% value, and 30% momentum, with a penalty for distress-zone Altman scores. ARX scores highest in Balance Sheet (61/100) and lowest in Safety (0/100). A grade of D flags significant fundamental concerns across multiple dimensions.

Risk & Quality Signals

Academic financial models used by institutional investors to assess bankruptcy risk, earnings manipulation, financial strength, and credit quality.

Altman-I Score
-10.67
Distress Zone
Piotroski F-Score
3/9
✗ ✓ ✗ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✗ ✗
Beneish M-Score
—
—
Ohlson O-Score
-4.89
Bankruptcy prob: 0.7%
Low Risk
Credit Rating
BB-
Score: 35.4/100
Earnings Quality
—
OCF/NI: -0.03x
Accruals: -15.8%
The Altman-I Score is adapted for insurance companies, emphasizing return on equity, tangible net worth, and cash reserves alongside the standard equity and earnings components. ARX scores -10.67, placing it in the Distress Zone (safe > 3.0, distress < 1.5). Historically, companies in this range face elevated bankruptcy risk. The Piotroski F-Score (2000) is a 9-point binary checklist — four profitability tests (positive ROA, positive cash flow, improving ROA, cash flow exceeding net income), three leverage tests (declining debt ratio, improving current ratio, no share dilution), and two efficiency tests (improving gross margin, improving asset turnover). Each pass scores 1 point. ARX scores 3/9, suggesting weak financial fundamentals — the company fails the majority of these accounting tests. The Ohlson O-Score (1980) is a 9-variable logistic regression that estimates bankruptcy probability using firm size, leverage, working capital, current ratio, profitability (ROA), cash flow coverage, negative equity flag, consecutive losses flag, and earnings trajectory. The raw score is converted to a probability via logistic transformation. ARX's implied 0.7% bankruptcy probability is well within safe territory. Our Credit Rating model scores companies on five weighted components — solvency (30%), earning power (25%), leverage (20%), liquidity (15%), and cash flow quality (10%) — then blends the absolute score with sector and industry peer rankings. For companies with large buyback programs, equity is adjusted by adding back cumulative 5-year repurchases (capped at 80% of FCF generated) to avoid penalizing shareholder-friendly capital allocation. ARX receives an estimated rating of BB- (score: 35.4/100).

Valuation

Key valuation multiples comparing the stock's market price to its earnings, revenue, book value, and cash flows. Lower multiples may indicate relative undervaluation versus peers.

P/E
-2.97x
PEG
0.00x
P/S
4.14x
P/B
6.08x
P/FCF
50.32x
P/OCF
56.58x
EV/EBITDA
6.24x
EV/Revenue
0.94x
EV/EBIT
8.40x
EV/FCF
18.81x
Earnings Yield
-52.75%
FCF Yield
1.99%
Shareholder Yield
3.19%
Graham Number
—
Equity-based multiples (P/E, P/B, P/FCF) compare the stock price to per-share fundamentals and are affected by capital structure. Enterprise value multiples (EV/EBITDA, EV/Revenue, EV/FCF) strip out debt and cash, making them more useful for cross-company comparisons regardless of how companies are financed. The Graham Number — √(22.5 × EPS × Book Value) — is Benjamin Graham's formula for the maximum price a defensive investor should pay. ARX currently has negative earnings — the P/E ratio is not meaningful.

DuPont Decomposition (5-Factor)

The 5-factor DuPont framework breaks Return on Equity into its component drivers — tax efficiency, interest burden, operating profitability, asset utilization, and financial leverage — to reveal what truly drives shareholder returns.

Tax Burden
1.019
NI / EBT
×
Interest Burden
-11.632
EBT / EBIT
×
EBIT Margin
0.112
EBIT / Rev
×
Asset Turnover
0.115
Rev / Assets
×
Equity Multiplier
12.466
Assets / Equity
=
ROE
-190.5%
The 5-factor DuPont identity decomposes ROE as: Tax Burden × Interest Burden × EBIT Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier = ROE. This reveals whether returns are driven by operating performance, financial leverage, or tax efficiency — three very different sources of profitability. ARX's ROE of -190.5% is driven by financial leverage (equity multiplier: 12.47x). Note: high leverage means ROE is amplified by debt rather than operational performance. A tax burden ratio of 1.02 indicates minimal tax leakage — the company retains over 90% of pre-tax earnings.

Graham-Dodd Adjusted Valuation

Our adaptation of Graham's growth formula (Fair P/E = 8.5 + 2g) from The Intelligent Investor. The classic version relies on analyst growth projections, which can be unreliable. This adjusted model substitutes the company's realized 3-year EPS CAGR — a backward-looking, verifiable measure of actual earnings power — grounding the valuation in demonstrated performance rather than forecasts.

Two adjustments we make, and why. Growth is capped at 15%. Graham defined g as expected growth over the next seven to ten years, not last year's rate. Across US companies since 1994 the median realized 7-year EPS growth is 5–8% regardless of how fast a company grew beforehand, and of 4,457 company-quarters that grew faster than 200%, none sustained it. Uncapped, the formula assigned fair multiples in the hundreds to companies that had never held that rate — and scored worse than simply reading the P/E. Capped, it carries real information. The verdict has three states, not two. Tested over 377,249 stock-months, this ratio only separates outcomes at its extremes: below 0.25 beat the universe by 1.3 points a year, above 3.0 lagged by 2.7, and everything in between sat inside a one-point band. Rather than call two-thirds of the market "undervalued" on a threshold of 1.0, we say Neutral where the model cannot tell — which is most of the time.

Adj. Growth Rate
0.00%
Fair P/E
8.50x
Intrinsic Value
—
Price/Value
—
Margin of Safety
—
Premium
—

Profitability Trends

Historical profitability ratios tracking how efficiently the company converts revenue into returns for shareholders over time.

Leverage & Solvency Trends

Debt and liquidity metrics showing the company's financial leverage and ability to meet short-term and long-term obligations.

Efficiency & Working Capital Trends

Operating efficiency metrics measuring how quickly the company converts inventory to sales, collects receivables, and manages its cash conversion cycle.

Growth Trends (YoY %)

Year-over-year growth rates for key financial metrics, showing the trajectory of revenue, earnings, and cash flow generation.

Earnings Stability

R-squared of linear regression measuring how predictably revenue, earnings, and margins follow a trend over the trailing 5 years. 1.0 = perfectly predictable; lower values indicate erratic or cyclical behavior.

Monte Carlo Price Simulation

Geometric Brownian Motion with 1,000 antithetic paths over 1 year, seeded from 318 days of historical volatility. Percentile bands show the range of statistically plausible outcomes — this is a statistical model, not a forecast.

Current Price
$19.82
Median 1Y
$12.28
5th Pctile
$4.17
95th Pctile
$36.16
Ann. Volatility
70.6%
Analyst Target
$20.25
25th–75th percentile 5th–95th percentile Median path Historical Analyst target

Executive Compensation

C-suite compensation breakdown including salary, stock awards, options, and incentive pay. The CEO-to-employee pay ratio and Gini coefficient measure pay distribution fairness.

C-Suite Compensation

ExecutiveSalaryStockTotal
Jeff Radke
Chief Executive Officer
$1,146,323 $— $81,383,137
Jay Green Financial
ancial Officer
$531,700 $30,551,871 $31,612,141
Christopher Lee-Smith Head
of Distribution
$965,812 $— $27,928,231

CEO Pay Ratio

11:1
CEO-to-Employee Pay Ratio
CEO Total Comp: $81,383,137
Avg Employee Cost (SGA/emp): $7,120,400
Employees: 250

C-Suite Pay Equality (Gini)

CEO Compensation Mix

Workforce & Productivity

Workforce efficiency metrics measuring revenue, profit, and R&D spend per employee — key indicators of operational leverage and human capital productivity.

Employees
250
Revenue / Employee
$2,066,800
Rev: $516,699,999
Profit / Employee
$-5,416,400
NI: $-1,354,100,000
SGA / Employee
$7,120,400
Avg labor cost proxy

Scaling Efficiency

All Ratios & Metrics

Complete fundamental data with up to 20 periods of history, sparkline trends, and current values across 13 categories and 130+ financial metrics.

Profitability
Metric Trend Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Q2'26 Current
ROE -2.1% -2.1% -2.1% -1.9% -1.91%
ROA -18.3% -17.4% -16.8% -15.3% -15.28%
ROIC -6.5% -3.6% -3.8% -12.0% -11.97%
ROCE 0.3% 0.6% 5.4% 1.4% 1.38%
Gross Margin 72.5% 62.3% 57.6% 70.2% 70.16%
Operating Margin 29.2% -1.1% 1.0% 16.6% 16.62%
Net Margin -5.4% -0.3% -2.7% 22.1% 22.05%
EBITDA Margin 12.1% 18.2% 7.5% 19.6% 19.64%
FCF Margin 34.1% 29.7% 16.9% 5.0% 5.02%
OCF Margin 27.6% 28.5% 17.1% 4.5% 4.46%
ROIC Economic snapshot only 13.26%
Cash ROA snapshot only 0.51%
NOPAT Margin snapshot only 10.55%
Pretax Margin snapshot only -1.31%
R&D / Revenue snapshot only 0.00%
SGA / Revenue snapshot only 51.64%
SBC / Revenue snapshot only 8.71%
Valuation
Metric Trend Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Q2'26 Current
P/E Ratio -2.13 -2.52 -2.05 -1.90 -2.973
P/S Ratio 11.47 7.61 4.43 2.52 4.139
P/B Ratio 4.54 5.20 4.28 3.61 6.082
P/FCF 33.64 25.63 26.15 50.32 50.315
P/OCF 41.52 26.71 25.92 56.58 56.577
EV/EBITDA 44.74 18.11 7.75 6.24 6.241
EV/Revenue 5.42 2.68 0.99 0.94 0.944
EV/EBIT 64.71 25.02 11.87 8.40 8.401
EV/FCF 15.89 9.03 5.82 18.81 18.809
Earnings Yield -46.9% -39.7% -48.7% -52.7% -52.75%
FCF Yield 3.0% 3.9% 3.8% 2.0% 1.99%
PEG Ratio snapshot only 0.001
Price/Tangible Book snapshot only 5.177
EV/OCF snapshot only 21.149
EV/Gross Profit snapshot only 1.413
Acquirers Multiple snapshot only 7.065
Shareholder Yield snapshot only 3.19%
Leverage & Solvency
Metric Trend Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Q2'26 Current
Current Ratio 24.19 — 1.06 7.79 7.792
Quick Ratio 24.19 — 1.06 7.78 7.782
Debt/Equity 0.18 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.167
Net Debt/Equity -2.39 -3.37 -3.33 -2.26 -2.262
Debt/Assets 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.013
Debt/EBITDA 3.76 1.72 1.42 0.77 0.774
Net Debt/EBITDA -49.96 -33.26 -27.10 -10.45 -10.455
Interest Coverage 0.02 0.04 0.04 0.08 0.081
Equity Multiplier 11.62 11.84 12.42 12.47 12.466
Cash Ratio snapshot only 2.888
Debt Service Coverage snapshot only 0.109
Cash to Debt snapshot only 14.510
FCF to Debt snapshot only 0.429
Defensive Interval snapshot only 1929.2 days
Efficiency & Turnover
Metric Trend Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Q2'26 Current
Asset Turnover 0.03 0.06 0.08 0.11 0.115
Inventory Turnover — — — 56.80 56.800
Receivables Turnover (trade) 0.05 0.28 0.22 0.89 0.887
Payables Turnover 0.27 — 0.14 — —
DSO (trade) 6648 1315 1658 411 411.4 days
DIO 0 0 0 6 6.4 days
DPO 1355 0 2561 0 —
Cash Conversion Cycle (trade) 5292 1315 -903 418 —
Fixed Asset Turnover snapshot only 0.335
Operating Cycle snapshot only 417.8 days
Cash Velocity snapshot only 0.589
Capital Intensity snapshot only 8.712
Growth Quality
Metric Trend Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Q2'26 Current
Revenue Stability — — — — —
Earnings Stability — — — — —
Margin Stability — — — — —
Rev. Growth Consistency 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000
Earn. Growth Consistency 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000
FCF Positive Streak 0 0 0 0 0
Earnings Persistence — — — — —
Earnings Smoothness — — — — —
ROE Trend — — — — —
Gross Margin Trend — — — — —
FCF Margin Trend — — — — —
Sustainable Growth Rate — — — — —
Internal Growth Rate — — — — —
Cash Flow Quality
Metric Trend Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Q2'26 Current
OCF/Net Income -0.05 -0.09 -0.08 -0.03 -0.034
FCF/OCF 1.23 1.04 0.99 1.12 1.124
FCF/Net Income snapshot only -0.038
OCF/EBITDA snapshot only 0.295
CapEx/Revenue 6.5% 1.2% 0.1% 0.6% 0.56%
CapEx/Depreciation snapshot only 0.143
Accruals Ratio -0.19 -0.19 -0.18 -0.16 -0.158
Sloan Accruals snapshot only 0.259
Cash Flow Adequacy snapshot only 8.035
Dividends & Buybacks
Metric Trend Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Q2'26 Current
Dividend Yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.00%
Dividend/Share $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Payout Ratio — — — — —
FCF Payout Ratio 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.00%
Total Payout Ratio — — — — —
Div. Increase Streak — — — — —
Chowder Number — — — — —
Buyback Yield 5.7% 0.0% 0.4% 3.2% 3.19%
Net Buyback Yield 5.7% 0.0% 0.4% 3.2% 3.19%
Total Shareholder Return 5.7% 0.0% 0.4% 3.2% 3.19%
DuPont Factors
Metric Trend Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Q2'26 Current
Tax Burden (NI/EBT) 1.01 1.01 1.01 1.02 1.019
Interest Burden (EBT/EBIT) -63.77 -28.00 -25.69 -11.63 -11.632
EBIT Margin 0.08 0.11 0.08 0.11 0.112
Asset Turnover 0.03 0.06 0.08 0.11 0.115
Equity Multiplier 11.62 11.84 12.42 12.47 12.466
Per Share
Metric Trend Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Q2'26 Current
EPS (Diluted TTM) $-6.99 $-6.49 $-6.51 $-6.18 $-6.18
Book Value/Share $3.28 $3.15 $3.12 $3.24 $3.38
Tangible Book/Share $2.25 $2.17 $1.77 $2.26 $2.26
Revenue/Share $1.30 $2.15 $3.02 $4.64 $4.72
FCF/Share $0.44 $0.64 $0.51 $0.23 $0.23
OCF/Share $0.36 $0.61 $0.52 $0.21 $0.21
Cash/Share $8.45 $11.13 $10.93 $7.88 $7.91
EBITDA/Share $0.16 $0.32 $0.38 $0.70 $0.70
Debt/Share $0.59 $0.55 $0.54 $0.54 $0.54
Net Debt/Share $-7.86 $-10.59 $-10.39 $-7.34 $-7.34
Academic Models
Metric Trend Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Q2'26 Current
Altman-I Score — — — — -10.675
Altman Z-Prime snapshot only 2.891
Piotroski F-Score 3 3 3 3 3
Beneish M-Score — — — — —
Ohlson O-Score snapshot only -4.890
ROIC (Greenblatt) snapshot only 1.61%
Net-Net WC snapshot only $-15.82
Credit
Metric Trend Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Q2'26 Current
Credit Rating snapshot only BB-
Credit Score 31.46 34.15 33.82 35.43 35.430
Credit Grade snapshot only 13
Implied Spread (bps) snapshot only 550.000
Industry Credit Rank snapshot only 6
Sector Credit Rank snapshot only 22

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For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Data sourced from SEC filings. Privacy Terms