CARR NYSE
Carrier Global Corporation
1W: +2.2%
1M: +0.1%
3M: -10.6%
YTD: +5.9%
1Y: -0.8%
3Y: +18.6%
5Y: +11.0%
$57.83
+1.39 (+2.46%)
After Hours: $57.60 (-0.23, -0.40%)
Weekly Expected Move ±2.2%
$54
$55
$56
$57
$59
Credit Risk of going bust: lower than 64% of companies Debt: 21.0% of company value Bonds: $185.4M held by 267 funds, 76 bp over Treasuries → details ▾
Of US companies ranked in the safest four tenths, about 1 in 3,500 filed for bankruptcy within a year (2020-2025).
If the stock fell to about $1.17 (down 98%), Carrier Global Corporation would be worth roughly what it owes.
Total debt $12.39B against a stock market value of $46.52B.
Distance to default 6.67 (Merton model): prices to 2026-10-26, balance sheet 2026-06-30, debt counted $6.79B (short-term plus half of long-term), stock volatility 35.0%; Altman Z 2.39. A ranking and a back-test, not a forecast.
Bond figures are fund-reported marks (SEC N-PORT) as of Jul 2026. How these are computed.
If the stock fell to about $1.17 (down 98%), Carrier Global Corporation would be worth roughly what it owes.
Total debt $12.39B against a stock market value of $46.52B.
Distance to default 6.67 (Merton model): prices to 2026-10-26, balance sheet 2026-06-30, debt counted $6.79B (short-term plus half of long-term), stock volatility 35.0%; Altman Z 2.39. A ranking and a back-test, not a forecast.
Bond figures are fund-reported marks (SEC N-PORT) as of Jul 2026. How these are computed.
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Supply Chain
Oct Typical
☀️
Sunny
+9.3% YTD avg
Midterm Year
⛈️
Stormy
-28.7% YTD avg
2026 Now
☀️
Sunny
Tracking typical
20yr Avg YTD
+9.3%
Day 206 of 252
Midterm Year YTD
-28.7%
Presidential cycle avg
2026 YTD
+8.5%
Below 20yr avg
Typical Vol
33%
Annualized
Monthly Weather Forecast
Jan
20yr
⛅
+1.4%
Midterm
⛈️
-10.4%
50% win
30% vol
Feb
20yr
🌧️
+4.2%
Midterm
⛈️
-14.5%
33% win
30% vol
Mar
20yr
💨
+15.3%
Midterm
⛈️
-12.7%
71% win
50% vol
Apr
20yr
💨
+21.4%
Midterm
⛈️
-26.2%
57% win
63% vol
May
20yr
💨
+27.1%
Midterm
⛈️
-25.6%
71% win
40% vol
Jun
20yr
⛅
+32.1%
Midterm
⛈️
-30.9%
86% win
34% vol
Jul
20yr
💨
+43.4%
Midterm
⛈️
-22.4%
71% win
36% vol
Aug
20yr
☁️
+51.3%
Midterm
⛈️
-24.9%
43% win
25% vol
Sep
20yr
🌧️
+46.4%
Midterm
⛈️
-31.8%
29% win
29% vol
Oct
20yr
⛅
+11.2%
Midterm
⛈️
-23.4%
71% win
33% vol
Now:
+5.4%
Nov
20yr
⛅
+15.2%
Midterm
⛈️
-14.6%
83% win
30% vol
Dec
20yr
🌧️
-1.8%
Midterm
🌧️
-6.5%
33% win
24% vol
Seasonality (20yr)
Updated: 2026-10-27
YTD: +8.5%