COGT NASDAQ
Cogent Biosciences, Inc.
1W: +2.5%
1M: +0.5%
3M: -19.1%
YTD: -7.9%
1Y: +111.6%
3Y: +262.5%
5Y: +262.5%
$32.01
+1.10 (+3.56%)
Weekly Expected Move ±5.4%
$28
$30
$31
$33
$35
Credit Risk of going bust: higher than 63% of companies Debt: 4.2% of company value Bonds: $38.2M held by 24 funds → details ▾
Of US companies ranked in the middle of the pack, about 1 in 580 filed for bankruptcy within a year (2020-2025).
If the stock fell to about $0.23 (down 99.3%), Cogent Biosciences, Inc. would be worth roughly what it owes.
Total debt $244.3M against a stock market value of $5.55B.
Distance to default 4.01 (Merton model): prices to 2026-10-27, balance sheet 2026-06-30, debt counted $113.2M (short-term plus half of long-term), stock volatility 90.6%; Altman Z'' -0.72. A ranking and a back-test, not a forecast.
Bond figures are fund-reported marks (SEC N-PORT) as of Jul 2026. How these are computed.
If the stock fell to about $0.23 (down 99.3%), Cogent Biosciences, Inc. would be worth roughly what it owes.
Total debt $244.3M against a stock market value of $5.55B.
Distance to default 4.01 (Merton model): prices to 2026-10-27, balance sheet 2026-06-30, debt counted $113.2M (short-term plus half of long-term), stock volatility 90.6%; Altman Z'' -0.72. A ranking and a back-test, not a forecast.
Bond figures are fund-reported marks (SEC N-PORT) as of Jul 2026. How these are computed.
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Analysis
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Weather
Peers
ESG
Institutions
ETF Exposure
Dark Pool
Short Interest
Supply Chain
Oct Typical
☀️
Sunny
+59.1% YTD avg
Midterm Year
☀️
Sunny
+53.6% YTD avg
2026 Now
⛈️
Stormy
Below typical
20yr Avg YTD
+59.1%
Day 206 of 252
Midterm Year YTD
+53.6%
Presidential cycle avg
2026 YTD
-7.9%
Below 20yr avg
Typical Vol
70%
Annualized
Monthly Weather Forecast
Jan
20yr
⛈️
-1.2%
Midterm
🌧️
-3.2%
50% win
77% vol
Feb
20yr
⛈️
-8.3%
Midterm
⛈️
-13.4%
25% win
100% vol
Mar
20yr
⛈️
-9.5%
Midterm
☀️
+6.5%
38% win
87% vol
Apr
20yr
⛈️
-13.5%
Midterm
☀️
+5.2%
22% win
64% vol
May
20yr
💨
-12.2%
Midterm
⛈️
-8.5%
56% win
72% vol
Jun
20yr
💨
-6.2%
Midterm
☀️
+9.5%
67% win
103% vol
Jul
20yr
💨
+34.1%
Midterm
🌧️
-2.8%
78% win
457% vol
Aug
20yr
💨
+50.7%
Midterm
☀️
+27.9%
56% win
72% vol
Sep
20yr
⛈️
+33.5%
Midterm
⛅
+4.0%
33% win
65% vol
Oct
20yr
⛈️
+62.6%
Midterm
☀️
+56.9%
44% win
70% vol
Now:
-0.0%
Nov
20yr
💨
+84.0%
Midterm
☀️
+44.6%
12% win
170% vol
Dec
20yr
⛈️
-9.6%
Midterm
⛈️
-22.2%
25% win
105% vol
Seasonality (20yr)
Updated: 2026-10-27
YTD: -7.9%