— Know what they know.
Not Investment Advice

COL NYSE

Rockwell Collins, Inc.
1W: +6.5% 1M: +9.4% 3M: +3.2% 1Y: +7.4% 3Y: +55.7% 5Y: +106.6%
$141.04
Last traded 2018-11-26 — delisted
NYSE · Industrials · Aerospace & Defense

Edge Score

Quantitative competitive moat analysis scoring five pillars of durable advantage — cost leadership, brand intangibles, switching costs, network effects, and efficient scale — using industry percentile rankings on a 0–100 scale.

WEAK EDGE
50.3 / 100
NoneWeakNarrowWide
Primary source: Cost Advantage  ·  ROIC: 9.4%  ·  5Y Avg: 21.3%
Cost Advantage ★
55
Intangibles
39
Switching Cost
54
Network Effect
52
Scale
55
The Edge Score quantifies a company's competitive moat using five pillars: Cost Advantage (20%, operating margin and SG&A efficiency vs industry peers), Intangible Assets (25%, gross margin premium, R&D intensity, brand pricing power), Switching Costs (25%, revenue stability, earnings consistency, customer retention proxied by operating leverage), Network Effects (15%, revenue growth with expanding margins, market share dominance), and Efficient Scale (15%, market concentration, ROIC sustainability). Each pillar is scored 0–100 using industry percentile rankings, then weighted into a composite. Wide ≥ 70, Narrow ≥ 55, Weak ≥ 40, None < 40. COL shows a Weak competitive edge (50.3/100) — limited structural advantages that may face competitive pressure. The primary source of advantage is Cost Advantage. ROIC of 9.4% suggests modest returns relative to capital deployed.

InsiderStreet Scorecard

Proprietary multi-factor scorecard rating companies across seven fundamental dimensions — profitability, balance sheet strength, earnings quality, growth, value, momentum, and safety — each scored 0–100.

★ ★ ★ ★ ★ 35 Grade D
Profitability
44
Balance Sheet
43
Earnings Quality
26
Growth
77
Value
44
Momentum
50
Safety
50
Cash Flow
8
The InsiderStreet Scorecard rates companies across eight dimensions: Profitability (margins, ROA, ROE), Balance Sheet (leverage, liquidity, coverage), Earnings Quality (accruals, cash conversion), Growth (revenue and earnings trajectory), Value (P/E, P/B, earnings yield, Graham criteria), Momentum (revenue and earnings acceleration), Safety (Altman Z-Score risk adjustment), and Cash Flow (operating cash flow quality, FCF conversion, cash coverage). The overall score blends 35% quality, 35% value, and 30% momentum, with a penalty for distress-zone Altman scores. COL scores highest in Growth (77/100) and lowest in Cash Flow (8/100). A grade of D flags significant fundamental concerns across multiple dimensions.

Risk & Quality Signals

Academic financial models used by institutional investors to assess bankruptcy risk, earnings manipulation, financial strength, and credit quality.

Altman Z-Score
2.27
Grey Zone
Piotroski F-Score
3/9
✓ ✗ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✓
Beneish M-Score
-1.67
Possible Manipulator
Ohlson O-Score
-7.38
Bankruptcy prob: 0.1%
Low Risk
Credit Rating
BB+
Score: 48.1/100
Trend: Deteriorating
Earnings Quality
25/100
OCF/NI: -0.30x
Accruals: 7.2%
The Altman Z-Score (1968) combines five ratios — working capital, retained earnings, EBIT, market value of equity, and sales, all relative to total assets or liabilities — into a single bankruptcy predictor. COL scores 2.27, placing it in the Grey Zone (safe > 2.99, distress < 1.81). Financial distress is possible and warrants monitoring. The Piotroski F-Score (2000) is a 9-point binary checklist — four profitability tests (positive ROA, positive cash flow, improving ROA, cash flow exceeding net income), three leverage tests (declining debt ratio, improving current ratio, no share dilution), and two efficiency tests (improving gross margin, improving asset turnover). Each pass scores 1 point. COL scores 3/9, suggesting weak financial fundamentals — the company fails the majority of these accounting tests. The Beneish M-Score (1999) is an 8-variable model that detects earnings manipulation by comparing year-over-year changes in receivables, gross margins, asset quality, sales growth, depreciation, SG&A, leverage, and accruals. Scores above −1.78 statistically resemble past manipulators. COL's score of -1.67 exceeds the −1.78 red flag threshold — this does not confirm manipulation but indicates the earnings profile resembles past manipulators statistically. The Ohlson O-Score (1980) is a 9-variable logistic regression that estimates bankruptcy probability using firm size, leverage, working capital, current ratio, profitability (ROA), cash flow coverage, negative equity flag, consecutive losses flag, and earnings trajectory. The raw score is converted to a probability via logistic transformation. COL's implied 0.1% bankruptcy probability is well within safe territory. Our Credit Rating model scores companies on five weighted components — solvency (30%), earning power (25%), leverage (20%), liquidity (15%), and cash flow quality (10%) — then blends the absolute score with sector and industry peer rankings. For companies with large buyback programs, equity is adjusted by adding back cumulative 5-year repurchases (capped at 80% of FCF generated) to avoid penalizing shareholder-friendly capital allocation. COL receives an estimated rating of BB+ (score: 48.1/100), with a deteriorating trend. The Earnings Quality score measures how well reported earnings are backed by real cash. It evaluates the operating cash flow to net income ratio (OCF/NI ≥ 1.0 means every dollar of earnings is cash-backed) and the accruals ratio (the gap between earnings and cash flow relative to assets — lower is better). COL's score of 25/100 is low — reported earnings may not be fully supported by cash flows.

Valuation

Key valuation multiples comparing the stock's market price to its earnings, revenue, book value, and cash flows. Lower multiples may indicate relative undervaluation versus peers.

P/E
22.68x
PEG
0.76x
P/S
0.00x
P/B
3.29x
P/FCF
-40.97x
P/OCF
—
EV/EBITDA
15.23x
EV/Revenue
3.51x
EV/EBIT
22.26x
EV/FCF
-53.66x
Earnings Yield
4.44%
FCF Yield
-2.44%
Shareholder Yield
0.10%
Graham Number
$77.48
Equity-based multiples (P/E, P/B, P/FCF) compare the stock price to per-share fundamentals and are affected by capital structure. Enterprise value multiples (EV/EBITDA, EV/Revenue, EV/FCF) strip out debt and cash, making them more useful for cross-company comparisons regardless of how companies are financed. The Graham Number — √(22.5 × EPS × Book Value) — is Benjamin Graham's formula for the maximum price a defensive investor should pay. At 22.7x earnings, COL commands a growth premium. Graham's intrinsic value formula yields $77.48 per share, 82% below the current price.

DuPont Decomposition (5-Factor)

The 5-factor DuPont framework breaks Return on Equity into its component drivers — tax efficiency, interest burden, operating profitability, asset utilization, and financial leverage — to reveal what truly drives shareholder returns.

Tax Burden
0.928
NI / EBT
×
Interest Burden
0.813
EBT / EBIT
×
EBIT Margin
0.158
EBIT / Rev
×
Asset Turnover
0.468
Rev / Assets
×
Equity Multiplier
2.815
Assets / Equity
=
ROE
15.7%
The 5-factor DuPont identity decomposes ROE as: Tax Burden × Interest Burden × EBIT Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier = ROE. This reveals whether returns are driven by operating performance, financial leverage, or tax efficiency — three very different sources of profitability. COL's ROE of 15.7% is driven by Asset Turnover (0.468), indicating efficient use of assets to generate revenue. A tax burden ratio of 0.93 indicates minimal tax leakage — the company retains over 90% of pre-tax earnings.

Graham-Dodd Adjusted Valuation

Our adaptation of Graham's growth formula (Fair P/E = 8.5 + 2g) from The Intelligent Investor. The classic version relies on analyst growth projections, which can be unreliable. This adjusted model substitutes the company's realized 3-year EPS CAGR — a backward-looking, verifiable measure of actual earnings power — grounding the valuation in demonstrated performance rather than forecasts.

Two adjustments we make, and why. Growth is capped at 15%. Graham defined g as expected growth over the next seven to ten years, not last year's rate. Across US companies since 1994 the median realized 7-year EPS growth is 5–8% regardless of how fast a company grew beforehand, and of 4,457 company-quarters that grew faster than 200%, none sustained it. Uncapped, the formula assigned fair multiples in the hundreds to companies that had never held that rate — and scored worse than simply reading the P/E. Capped, it carries real information. The verdict has three states, not two. Tested over 377,249 stock-months, this ratio only separates outcomes at its extremes: below 0.25 beat the universe by 1.3 points a year, above 3.0 lagged by 2.7, and everything in between sat inside a one-point band. Rather than call two-thirds of the market "undervalued" on a threshold of 1.0, we say Neutral where the model cannot tell — which is most of the time.

Adj. Growth Rate
6.52%
Fair P/E
21.54x
Intrinsic Value
$134.05
Price/Value
1.05x
Margin of Safety
-4.52%
Premium
4.52%
Assessment
Neutral
Graham's classic formula uses analyst-projected growth to estimate a fair P/E (8.5 + 2g). Our adjusted version replaces that projection with COL's realized 6.5% 3-year EPS CAGR, capped at 15% — demonstrated performance rather than forecasts, held to a rate companies have historically sustained. COL trades at a 5% premium to its adjusted intrinsic value of $134.05, suggesting the market is pricing in future growth beyond what historical earnings support. The adjusted fair P/E of 21.5x compares to the current market P/E of 22.7x.

Profitability Trends

Historical profitability ratios tracking how efficiently the company converts revenue into returns for shareholders over time.

Leverage & Solvency Trends

Debt and liquidity metrics showing the company's financial leverage and ability to meet short-term and long-term obligations.

Efficiency & Working Capital Trends

Operating efficiency metrics measuring how quickly the company converts inventory to sales, collects receivables, and manages its cash conversion cycle.

Growth Trends (YoY %)

Year-over-year growth rates for key financial metrics, showing the trajectory of revenue, earnings, and cash flow generation.

Earnings Stability

R-squared of linear regression measuring how predictably revenue, earnings, and margins follow a trend over the trailing 5 years. 1.0 = perfectly predictable; lower values indicate erratic or cyclical behavior.

Monte Carlo Price Simulation

Geometric Brownian Motion with 1,000 antithetic paths over 1 year, seeded from 1800 days of historical volatility. Percentile bands show the range of statistically plausible outcomes — this is a statistical model, not a forecast.

Current Price
$141.04
Median 1Y
$162.51
5th Pctile
$121.27
95th Pctile
$218.13
Ann. Volatility
18.1%
25th–75th percentile 5th–95th percentile Median path Historical
All Ratios & Metrics

Complete fundamental data with up to 20 periods of history, sparkline trends, and current values across 13 categories and 130+ financial metrics.

Profitability
Metric Trend Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16 Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Current
ROE 42.3% 41.7% 38.9% 34.5% 35.7% 34.2% 33.5% 36.5% 34.8% 34.0% 33.9% 36.8% 36.0% 33.6% 18.2% 17.4% 19.6% 20.1% 16.2% 15.7% 15.70%
ROA 10.2% 9.9% 9.7% 9.7% 9.0% 9.1% 9.2% 9.5% 9.0% 9.1% 9.4% 9.6% 9.7% 9.6% 5.4% 5.5% 6.5% 7.0% 5.5% 5.6% 5.57%
ROIC 16.2% 15.5% 16.2% 16.4% 16.1% 16.2% 15.2% 18.4% 16.2% 15.9% 16.3% 59.5% 61.2% 59.0% 20.5% 7.8% 7.8% 8.7% 9.7% 9.4% 9.44%
ROCE 19.9% 19.1% 19.1% 19.0% 19.6% 20.2% 20.5% 19.3% 20.9% 19.4% 18.9% 18.1% 18.6% 19.0% 6.8% 7.3% 7.5% 8.0% 8.8% 9.5% 9.53%
Gross Margin 29.4% 29.7% 30.6% 30.5% 30.1% 30.1% 31.3% 31.5% 28.5% 30.8% 31.4% 31.9% 31.6% 30.7% 27.2% 27.1% 27.3% 26.7% 26.4% 25.2% 25.15%
Operating Margin 17.9% 18.1% 19.3% 14.8% 19.0% 19.1% 14.3% 20.4% 14.7% 19.2% 14.8% 1.2% 18.7% 18.9% 14.0% 15.5% 15.8% 18.7% 16.5% 16.2% 16.20%
Net Margin 12.2% 11.6% 12.5% 11.9% 13.6% 11.7% 13.8% 13.3% 11.5% 13.0% 16.0% 14.4% 12.2% 12.5% 8.5% 9.7% 13.9% 10.9% 12.5% 10.6% 10.59%
EBITDA Margin 28.4% 18.6% 22.9% 19.2% 24.1% 22.0% 24.4% 24.9% 29.5% 17.5% 19.7% 26.0% 31.4% 21.1% 15.4% 19.3% 24.6% 21.4% 23.4% 22.9% 22.95%
FCF Margin 8.6% 7.8% 8.1% 9.6% 8.4% 9.6% 10.1% 10.0% 9.8% 9.0% 8.5% 10.1% 9.8% 9.2% 11.4% 15.0% 11.0% 10.7% 9.1% -6.5% -6.54%
OCF Margin 11.2% 10.5% 11.2% 12.9% 12.0% 13.4% 13.9% 14.0% 13.6% 12.8% 12.1% 13.7% 13.5% 12.8% 15.1% 18.5% 14.5% 14.0% 12.2% -3.6% -3.58%
ROE 3Y Avg snapshot only 20.41%
ROE 5Y Avg snapshot only 25.97%
ROA 3Y Avg snapshot only 6.26%
ROIC 3Y Avg snapshot only 14.53%
ROIC Economic snapshot only 9.09%
Cash ROA snapshot only -1.63%
Cash ROIC snapshot only -2.17%
CROIC snapshot only -3.97%
NOPAT Margin snapshot only 15.58%
Pretax Margin snapshot only 12.83%
R&D / Revenue snapshot only 0.00%
SGA / Revenue snapshot only 9.43%
SBC / Revenue snapshot only 0.00%
Valuation
Metric Trend Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16 Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Current
P/E Ratio 14.97 16.61 16.47 16.75 16.86 18.95 17.63 15.25 18.05 17.66 15.44 14.85 16.22 17.19 23.65 30.16 26.44 24.42 22.12 22.51 22.675
P/S Ratio 2.05 2.16 2.07 2.02 2.09 2.35 2.24 1.99 2.28 2.29 2.09 2.06 2.27 2.38 2.73 3.12 2.91 2.62 2.59 2.68 0.000
P/B Ratio 5.48 5.56 5.18 5.37 5.79 6.32 5.76 5.58 6.22 5.95 5.16 5.20 5.44 5.27 2.95 3.52 3.50 3.35 3.27 3.27 3.290
P/FCF 23.80 27.66 25.59 21.08 24.92 24.50 22.21 19.93 23.20 25.49 24.53 20.39 23.20 25.83 23.95 20.76 26.32 24.44 28.54 -40.97 -40.973
P/OCF 18.31 20.48 18.50 15.71 17.38 17.60 16.07 14.23 16.75 17.82 17.22 14.95 16.79 18.60 18.07 16.82 20.08 18.71 21.30 — —
EV/EBITDA 10.54 11.40 10.71 10.88 11.91 12.61 11.84 9.86 10.72 11.33 11.04 10.38 11.21 11.23 17.52 19.74 19.04 16.92 15.15 15.23 15.227
EV/Revenue 2.51 2.60 2.50 2.39 2.51 2.77 2.64 2.35 2.69 2.72 2.51 2.39 2.64 2.74 3.91 4.06 3.80 3.41 3.35 3.51 3.511
EV/EBIT 12.61 13.84 13.22 12.97 13.88 14.84 13.89 12.22 13.63 14.56 13.63 12.99 13.95 13.87 22.49 25.40 25.94 23.76 21.65 22.26 22.255
EV/FCF 29.18 33.36 30.84 24.92 29.97 28.84 26.20 23.50 27.40 30.24 29.48 23.76 27.01 29.78 34.38 27.07 34.36 31.82 36.96 -53.66 -53.656
Earnings Yield 6.7% 6.0% 6.1% 6.0% 5.9% 5.3% 5.7% 6.6% 5.5% 5.7% 6.5% 6.7% 6.2% 5.8% 4.2% 3.3% 3.8% 4.1% 4.5% 4.4% 4.44%
FCF Yield 4.2% 3.6% 3.9% 4.7% 4.0% 4.1% 4.5% 5.0% 4.3% 3.9% 4.1% 4.9% 4.3% 3.9% 4.2% 4.8% 3.8% 4.1% 3.5% -2.4% -2.44%
PEG Ratio snapshot only 0.761
EV/Gross Profit snapshot only 13.326
Acquirers Multiple snapshot only 20.909
Shareholder Yield snapshot only 0.10%
Graham Number snapshot only $77.48
Leverage & Solvency
Metric Trend Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16 Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Current
Current Ratio 1.38 1.42 1.44 1.46 1.39 1.41 1.44 1.51 1.34 1.36 1.38 1.49 1.49 1.59 1.70 1.55 1.56 1.61 1.65 1.23 1.233
Quick Ratio 0.74 0.73 0.74 0.68 0.64 0.64 0.65 0.66 0.59 0.59 0.63 0.66 0.63 0.70 0.83 0.75 0.73 0.79 0.84 0.67 0.668
Debt/Equity 1.49 1.37 1.29 1.15 1.34 1.27 1.18 1.13 1.30 1.26 1.19 1.02 1.03 0.92 1.39 1.18 1.16 1.11 1.06 1.12 1.116
Net Debt/Equity 1.24 1.14 1.06 0.98 1.17 1.12 1.03 1.00 1.13 1.11 1.04 0.86 0.89 0.80 1.29 1.07 1.07 1.01 0.97 1.01 1.012
Debt/Assets 0.36 0.36 0.35 0.31 0.35 0.34 0.33 0.29 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.28 0.30 0.28 0.42 0.40 0.41 0.40 0.39 0.42 0.417
Debt/EBITDA 2.34 2.32 2.22 1.97 2.29 2.15 2.05 1.70 1.90 2.03 2.11 1.75 1.83 1.70 5.74 5.10 4.84 4.31 3.78 3.97 3.968
Net Debt/EBITDA 1.94 1.95 1.82 1.68 2.01 1.90 1.80 1.50 1.65 1.78 1.85 1.47 1.58 1.49 5.31 4.60 4.46 3.92 3.45 3.60 3.599
Interest Coverage 27.03 21.29 18.38 15.63 15.08 16.00 16.43 16.56 16.77 15.27 14.97 15.14 14.48 13.64 7.65 5.83 4.84 4.47 5.10 5.22 5.218
Equity Multiplier 4.11 3.83 3.73 3.75 3.83 3.68 3.53 3.94 3.93 3.80 3.64 3.71 3.50 3.25 3.28 2.98 2.84 2.76 2.70 2.68 2.677
Cash Ratio snapshot only 0.157
Debt Service Coverage snapshot only 7.626
Cash to Debt snapshot only 0.093
FCF to Debt snapshot only -0.072
Defensive Interval snapshot only 1271.9 days
Efficiency & Turnover
Metric Trend Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16 Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Current
Asset Turnover 0.74 0.77 0.77 0.80 0.73 0.73 0.73 0.73 0.71 0.70 0.70 0.70 0.70 0.69 0.47 0.53 0.59 0.65 0.47 0.47 0.468
Inventory Turnover 2.20 2.13 2.12 2.17 2.13 2.10 2.06 2.05 1.94 1.90 1.89 1.94 1.83 1.83 1.90 2.22 2.41 2.66 2.44 2.50 2.503
Receivables Turnover 4.55 5.64 8.13 4.79 4.94 6.17 6.10 5.06 5.01 8.60 4.53 4.93 5.12 8.56 5.18 6.63 7.46 9.87 7.65 6.99 6.994
Payables Turnover 6.89 8.09 7.92 7.02 7.22 8.07 7.80 7.10 7.06 7.92 7.74 7.18 7.14 8.06 8.99 6.70 7.59 10.14 9.78 7.30 7.302
DSO 80 65 45 76 74 59 60 72 73 42 81 74 71 43 70 55 49 37 48 52 52.2 days
DIO 166 171 173 168 171 174 177 178 188 192 193 189 199 199 192 165 151 137 149 146 145.8 days
DPO 53 45 46 52 51 45 47 51 52 46 47 51 51 45 41 55 48 36 37 50 50.0 days
Cash Conversion Cycle 193 191 171 192 195 188 190 198 209 188 227 212 219 197 222 165 152 138 160 148 148.0 days
Fixed Asset Turnover snapshot only 6.064
Operating Cycle snapshot only 198.0 days
Cash Velocity snapshot only 11.741
Capital Intensity snapshot only 2.196
Growth (YoY)
Metric Trend Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16 Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Current
Revenue -2.3% -0.1% 1.9% 4.1% 11.8% 9.9% 8.3% 4.7% 0.4% -1.5% -1.2% 0.3% 1.9% 3.0% 16.9% 29.7% 44.6% 59.5% 41.5% 27.0% 27.02%
Net Income 3.6% -3.4% -4.8% -7.4% 1.4% 5.0% 9.3% 13.6% 2.2% 2.9% 5.2% 6.1% 12.8% 10.0% -0.6% -3.2% 13.8% 23.7% 43.6% 46.4% 46.38%
EPS 9.0% -3.0% -4.6% -7.0% 3.1% 7.8% 12.0% 16.1% 3.5% 4.0% 6.9% 7.5% 13.6% 9.9% -18.2% -22.7% -9.2% -1.2% 38.4% 45.4% 45.41%
FCF 1.3% -37.5% -36.1% -38.2% 9.1% 35.3% 34.8% 9.4% 17.6% -7.8% -16.6% 1.0% 1.4% 5.6% 56.0% 93.2% 63.6% 85.7% 12.7% -1.6% -1.55%
EBITDA 3.9% 1.4% 7.5% 1.3% -0.8% 5.7% 3.6% 13.8% 19.4% 7.7% 0.7% -3.0% -4.5% 4.9% 14.6% 15.7% 22.5% 31.7% 40.2% 42.3% 42.31%
Op. Income -68.6% -67.8% -51.3% -54.6% 7.5% 7.4% -4.4% 9.5% -2.1% -5.2% 2.6% 1.5% 1.7% 1.7% 1.8% -53.4% -50.5% -44.2% -43.5% 31.2% 31.20%
OCF Growth snapshot only -1.25%
Asset Growth snapshot only 5.72%
Equity Growth snapshot only 17.61%
Debt Growth snapshot only 10.82%
Shares Change snapshot only 0.67%
Growth (CAGR)
Metric Trend Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16 Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Current
Revenue 3Y -0.3% 0.1% 8.1% 9.4% 10.4% 11.0% 3.5% 3.3% 3.2% 2.7% 2.9% 3.0% 4.6% 3.7% 7.7% 10.8% 13.9% 17.4% 17.8% 18.2% 18.22%
Revenue 5Y -0.6% 0.2% 0.8% 1.9% 2.9% 3.3% 3.4% 2.8% 2.1% 1.7% 6.2% 6.6% 6.6% 6.8% 5.1% 7.5% 10.1% 12.2% 12.5% 12.5% 12.47%
EPS 3Y 9.0% 6.3% 5.7% 4.3% 4.3% 6.2% 5.8% 5.7% 5.2% 2.8% 4.5% 5.1% 6.6% 7.2% -0.7% -1.2% 2.2% 4.1% 6.6% 6.5% 6.52%
EPS 5Y 1.6% 1.2% 1.2% 2.0% 5.0% 6.5% 7.8% 8.6% 6.7% 6.1% 7.2% 7.2% 5.9% 6.5% 0.7% -0.4% 3.7% 3.4% 5.3% 5.5% 5.47%
Net Income 3Y 4.0% 1.5% 1.1% -0.3% 0.3% 1.9% 2.3% 2.8% 2.4% 1.4% 3.1% 3.7% 5.4% 5.9% 4.6% 5.3% 9.5% 11.9% 14.5% 14.6% 14.58%
Net Income 5Y -1.4% -1.7% -1.8% -1.2% 1.5% 2.8% 4.1% 4.7% 3.1% 2.5% 3.5% 3.6% 3.1% 3.7% 2.3% 2.2% 6.6% 7.3% 9.3% 9.6% 9.62%
EBITDA 3Y 4.2% 3.5% 4.2% 2.4% 1.7% 3.3% 4.2% 6.2% 7.1% 4.9% 3.9% 3.8% 4.2% 6.1% 6.1% 8.5% 11.8% 14.1% 17.4% 16.9% 16.89%
EBITDA 5Y -0.1% -0.1% 0.6% 0.4% 1.2% 2.9% 4.3% 5.8% 6.0% 4.8% 3.4% 3.4% 3.7% 4.5% 5.5% 6.1% 7.6% 9.8% 12.5% 13.0% 12.99%
Gross Profit 3Y -13.9% -21.6% -20.7% -9.9% -8.9% 10.6% 7.8% 7.9% 6.7% 3.8% 3.7% 3.8% 6.1% 5.0% 7.7% 9.0% 10.8% 13.1% 12.8% 12.3% 12.25%
Gross Profit 5Y -0.6% 0.3% 0.4% 1.7% 3.4% 4.3% 5.2% -5.5% -6.2% -12.0% -11.4% -4.8% -4.3% 7.3% 7.2% 8.7% 10.3% 10.2% 10.1% 9.6% 9.56%
Op. Income 3Y — — — — 1.5% 3.2% -18.9% -16.7% -30.8% -31.0% -21.9% 7.3% 41.9% 40.6% 39.9% 8.3% 9.6% 13.0% 17.4% 15.0% 15.03%
Op. Income 5Y -2.2% -1.4% -0.6% -19.9% -27.6% -27.1% -32.8% -27.3% — — — — 22.7% 23.3% 8.9% -7.7% -15.0% -13.0% -5.5% -5.4% -5.43%
FCF 3Y -12.6% -12.9% -3.3% 7.9% -4.7% 10.9% 8.4% 5.3% 9.1% -8.0% -10.5% -12.0% 9.1% 9.6% 20.6% 28.7% 24.9% 21.8% 13.6% — —
FCF 5Y -2.1% -2.9% -2.8% -1.4% -2.0% -2.2% -3.5% -1.5% -3.1% -3.8% 0.3% 6.8% 0.6% 5.9% 10.6% 17.9% 16.6% 8.9% 4.8% — —
OCF 3Y -10.1% -9.9% -0.8% 7.6% -1.9% 9.3% 8.5% 6.8% 9.7% -2.5% -5.0% -6.9% 11.4% 10.7% 18.9% 25.2% 21.2% 19.3% 12.5% — —
OCF 5Y -3.6% -3.8% -2.8% -1.4% -0.4% 0.1% -1.1% 1.2% -0.2% -0.7% 2.5% 6.9% 1.6% 4.8% 9.8% 16.0% 15.7% 10.7% 7.3% — —
Assets 3Y 11.9% 13.0% 13.1% 11.4% 9.8% 11.5% 11.6% 12.8% 12.0% 12.1% 12.5% 12.6% 2.8% 3.2% 36.3% 36.6% 36.2% 36.6% 36.4% 37.1% 37.06%
Assets 5Y 11.3% 11.1% 11.7% 10.1% 9.0% 9.1% 9.2% 9.3% 8.1% 9.0% 8.9% 8.6% 7.4% 8.5% 28.7% 28.4% 27.7% 27.9% 27.7% 28.6% 28.64%
Equity 3Y 5.1% 7.7% 7.3% 4.2% 6.8% 15.5% 15.5% 13.8% 14.7% 21.0% 20.6% 8.7% 8.5% 9.1% 42.2% 47.5% 50.5% 50.5% 49.1% 55.9% 55.92%
Book Value 3Y 10.2% 12.8% 12.2% 9.0% 11.1% 20.4% 19.4% 17.0% 17.8% 22.6% 22.3% 10.1% 9.8% 10.4% 35.1% 38.4% 40.5% 40.1% 38.7% 44.9% 44.94%
Dividend 3Y — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — —
Growth Quality
Metric Trend Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16 Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Current
Revenue Stability 0.03 0.00 0.15 0.30 0.37 0.45 0.88 0.93 0.62 0.63 0.90 0.90 0.90 0.87 0.75 0.65 0.58 0.53 0.67 0.75 0.750
Earnings Stability 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.54 0.82 0.76 0.63 0.67 0.82 0.76 0.63 0.62 0.75 0.73 0.59 0.82 0.71 0.62 0.62 0.623
Margin Stability 0.69 0.60 0.46 0.68 0.68 0.98 0.95 0.76 0.77 0.60 0.48 0.70 0.70 0.99 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.95 0.94 0.936
Rev. Growth Consistency 0.00 0.00 1.00 1.00 0.50 0.50 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 1.00 0.50 0.50 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000
Earn. Growth Consistency 0.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.50 0.50 0.50 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 1.00 0.50 0.50 0.500
FCF Positive Streak 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0
Earnings Persistence 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.97 0.99 0.98 0.96 0.95 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.95 0.96 1.00 0.99 0.94 0.91 0.83 0.81 0.814
Earnings Smoothness 0.96 0.97 0.95 0.92 0.99 0.95 0.91 0.87 0.98 0.97 0.95 0.94 0.88 0.90 0.99 0.97 0.87 0.79 0.64 0.62 0.623
ROE Trend -0.08 -0.19 -0.19 -0.13 -0.08 -0.12 -0.10 0.00 -0.01 0.00 0.01 0.01 -0.01 -0.03 -0.21 -0.24 -0.21 -0.18 -0.08 -0.09 -0.088
Gross Margin Trend -0.11 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 -0.01 -0.02 -0.03 -0.04 -0.03 -0.03 -0.033
FCF Margin Trend -0.02 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03 -0.00 -0.01 -0.00 -0.03 0.01 0.00 -0.01 0.00 0.01 -0.00 0.02 0.05 0.01 0.02 -0.01 -0.19 -0.191
Sustainable Growth Rate 42.3% 41.7% 38.9% 34.5% 35.7% 34.2% 33.5% 36.5% 34.8% 34.0% 33.9% 36.8% 36.0% 33.6% 18.2% 17.4% 19.6% 20.1% 16.2% 15.7% 15.70%
Internal Growth Rate 11.3% 11.0% 10.7% 10.7% 9.9% 10.0% 10.2% 10.5% 9.8% 10.0% 10.4% 10.7% 10.8% 10.6% 5.7% 5.8% 7.0% 7.5% 5.8% 5.9% 5.90%
Cash Flow Quality
Metric Trend Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16 Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Current
OCF/Net Income 0.82 0.81 0.89 1.07 0.97 1.08 1.10 1.07 1.08 0.99 0.90 0.99 0.97 0.92 1.31 1.79 1.32 1.30 1.04 -0.30 -0.300
FCF/OCF 0.77 0.74 0.72 0.75 0.70 0.72 0.72 0.71 0.72 0.70 0.70 0.73 0.72 0.72 0.75 0.81 0.76 0.77 0.75 1.83 1.829
FCF/Net Income snapshot only -0.549
OCF/EBITDA snapshot only -0.155
CapEx/Revenue 2.6% 2.7% 3.1% 3.3% 3.6% 3.8% 3.9% 4.0% 3.8% 3.9% 3.6% 3.7% 3.7% 3.6% 3.7% 3.5% 3.4% 3.3% 3.1% 3.0% 2.97%
CapEx/Depreciation snapshot only 0.414
Accruals Ratio 0.02 0.02 0.01 -0.01 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 -0.02 -0.04 -0.02 -0.02 -0.00 0.07 0.072
Sloan Accruals snapshot only -0.066
Cash Flow Adequacy snapshot only -1.206
Earnings Quality Score snapshot only 0.250
Dividends & Buybacks
Metric Trend Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16 Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Current
Dividend Yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.94%
Dividend/Share $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $1.32
Payout Ratio 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.00%
FCF Payout Ratio 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% — —
Total Payout Ratio 56.1% 44.5% 34.8% 29.1% 33.0% 55.8% 58.6% 62.7% 65.1% 52.2% 52.8% 49.0% 36.0% 23.8% 17.7% 13.0% 11.7% 11.4% 6.3% 2.2% 2.23%
Div. Increase Streak — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — —
Chowder Number — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — —
Buyback Yield 3.7% 2.7% 2.1% 1.7% 2.0% 2.9% 3.3% 4.1% 3.6% 3.0% 3.4% 3.3% 2.2% 1.4% 0.7% 0.4% 0.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.10%
Net Buyback Yield 3.7% 2.7% 2.1% 1.7% 2.0% 2.9% 3.3% 4.1% 3.6% 3.0% 3.4% 3.3% -1.9% -2.5% -36.7% -28.7% -27.2% -27.2% -1.7% -5.2% -5.21%
Total Shareholder Return 3.7% 2.7% 2.1% 1.7% 2.0% 2.9% 3.3% 4.1% 3.6% 3.0% 3.4% 3.3% -1.9% -2.5% -36.7% -28.7% -27.2% -27.2% -1.7% -5.2% -5.21%
DuPont Factors
Metric Trend Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16 Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Current
Tax Burden (NI/EBT) 0.73 0.70 0.70 0.69 0.70 0.69 0.70 0.71 0.73 0.75 0.78 0.78 0.75 0.75 0.73 0.76 0.85 0.86 0.91 0.93 0.928
Interest Burden (EBT/EBIT) 0.94 0.98 0.95 0.95 0.98 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.88 0.93 0.94 0.96 0.98 0.93 0.90 0.85 0.88 0.87 0.83 0.81 0.813
EBIT Margin 0.20 0.19 0.19 0.18 0.18 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.20 0.19 0.18 0.18 0.19 0.20 0.17 0.16 0.15 0.14 0.15 0.16 0.158
Asset Turnover 0.74 0.77 0.77 0.80 0.73 0.73 0.73 0.73 0.71 0.70 0.70 0.70 0.70 0.69 0.47 0.53 0.59 0.65 0.47 0.47 0.468
Equity Multiplier 4.16 4.19 4.02 3.56 3.97 3.76 3.62 3.84 3.88 3.74 3.59 3.82 3.70 3.50 3.38 3.17 3.01 2.89 2.96 2.82 2.815
Per Share
Metric Trend Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16 Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Current
EPS (Diluted TTM) $4.62 $4.50 $4.47 $4.43 $4.76 $4.85 $5.01 $5.15 $4.92 $5.05 $5.35 $5.54 $5.60 $5.55 $4.38 $4.28 $5.08 $5.48 $6.06 $6.22 $6.22
Book Value/Share $12.62 $13.46 $14.22 $13.83 $13.86 $14.56 $15.34 $14.08 $14.30 $14.99 $16.03 $15.80 $16.69 $18.10 $35.04 $36.69 $38.42 $40.01 $40.93 $42.86 $42.91
Tangible Book/Share $-5.69 $-5.12 $-4.43 $-4.90 $-5.03 $-4.50 $-3.68 $-5.50 $-5.25 $-4.76 $-3.71 $-3.86 $-3.08 $-1.54 $-37.50 $-31.84 $-29.71 $-27.47 $-25.46 $-25.28 $-25.28
Revenue/Share $33.79 $34.69 $35.49 $36.78 $38.39 $39.14 $39.39 $39.37 $39.06 $38.98 $39.53 $39.99 $40.05 $40.14 $37.99 $41.42 $46.19 $51.13 $51.79 $52.26 $52.26
FCF/Share $2.90 $2.70 $2.88 $3.52 $3.22 $3.75 $3.97 $3.94 $3.83 $3.50 $3.37 $4.03 $3.91 $3.69 $4.32 $6.22 $5.10 $5.48 $4.70 $-3.42 $-3.42
OCF/Share $3.77 $3.65 $3.98 $4.73 $4.62 $5.23 $5.49 $5.52 $5.31 $5.00 $4.80 $5.50 $5.41 $5.13 $5.73 $7.67 $6.69 $7.15 $6.29 $-1.87 $-1.87
Cash/Share $3.21 $2.99 $3.29 $2.37 $2.34 $2.12 $2.20 $1.89 $2.52 $2.27 $2.33 $2.59 $2.34 $2.12 $3.61 $4.27 $3.52 $4.03 $3.74 $4.45 $4.45
EBITDA/Share $8.04 $7.92 $8.28 $8.07 $8.10 $8.59 $8.79 $9.39 $9.80 $9.34 $9.00 $9.22 $9.42 $9.79 $8.48 $8.52 $9.21 $10.30 $11.46 $12.05 $12.05
Debt/Share $18.84 $18.40 $18.39 $15.91 $18.59 $18.42 $18.05 $15.98 $18.64 $18.92 $19.00 $16.14 $17.26 $16.68 $48.65 $43.44 $44.59 $44.41 $43.29 $47.82 $47.82
Net Debt/Share $15.63 $15.41 $15.11 $13.54 $16.25 $16.30 $15.85 $14.08 $16.12 $16.65 $16.67 $13.55 $14.92 $14.56 $45.03 $39.17 $41.06 $40.39 $39.54 $43.37 $43.37
Academic Models
Metric Trend Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16 Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Current
Altman Z-Score — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — 2.274
Altman Z-Prime snapshot only 3.705
Piotroski F-Score 4 4 3 5 8 8 8 9 5 6 6 6 8 6 4 4 4 4 6 3 3
Beneish M-Score -2.12 -2.11 -2.08 -2.29 -2.45 -2.55 -2.54 -2.49 -2.51 -2.45 -2.36 -2.43 -2.50 -2.39 -1.57 -1.76 -1.50 -1.55 -2.48 -1.67 -1.673
Ohlson O-Score snapshot only -7.378
Net-Net WC snapshot only $-37.00
EVA snapshot only $-79476258.99
Credit
Metric Trend Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16 Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Current
Credit Rating snapshot only BB+
Credit Score 72.43 72.23 71.67 74.05 71.79 77.11 76.80 76.31 78.45 72.22 70.23 75.41 73.66 75.43 46.49 50.38 47.24 47.47 55.69 48.08 48.079
Credit Grade snapshot only 11
Credit Trend snapshot only -2.302
Implied Spread (bps) snapshot only 400.000
Industry Credit Rank snapshot only 41
Sector Credit Rank snapshot only 34

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