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DEL NYSE

Deltic Timber Corporation
1W: +2.3% 1M: -0.3% 3M: -1.8% 1Y: +21.9% 3Y: +45.0% 5Y: +31.6%
$93.28
Last traded 2018-02-20 — delisted
NYSE · Basic Materials · Paper, Lumber & Forest Products

Edge Score

Quantitative competitive moat analysis scoring five pillars of durable advantage — cost leadership, brand intangibles, switching costs, network effects, and efficient scale — using industry percentile rankings on a 0–100 scale.

WEAK EDGE
47.7 / 100
NoneWeakNarrowWide
Primary source: Intangible Assets  ·  ROIC: 2.7%  ·  5Y Avg: 4.0%
Cost Advantage
16
Intangibles
84
Switching Cost
44
Network Effect
28
Scale
55
The Edge Score quantifies a company's competitive moat using five pillars: Cost Advantage (20%, operating margin and SG&A efficiency vs industry peers), Intangible Assets (25%, gross margin premium, R&D intensity, brand pricing power), Switching Costs (25%, revenue stability, earnings consistency, customer retention proxied by operating leverage), Network Effects (15%, revenue growth with expanding margins, market share dominance), and Efficient Scale (15%, market concentration, ROIC sustainability). Each pillar is scored 0–100 using industry percentile rankings, then weighted into a composite. Wide ≥ 70, Narrow ≥ 55, Weak ≥ 40, None < 40. DEL shows a Weak competitive edge (47.7/100) — limited structural advantages that may face competitive pressure. The primary source of advantage is Intangible Assets. ROIC of 2.7% suggests modest returns relative to capital deployed.

InsiderStreet Scorecard

Proprietary multi-factor scorecard rating companies across seven fundamental dimensions — profitability, balance sheet strength, earnings quality, growth, value, momentum, and safety — each scored 0–100.

★ ★ ★ ★ ★ 49 Grade B
Profitability
16
Balance Sheet
43
Earnings Quality
82
Growth
29
Value
40
Momentum
61
Safety
80
Cash Flow
61
The InsiderStreet Scorecard rates companies across eight dimensions: Profitability (margins, ROA, ROE), Balance Sheet (leverage, liquidity, coverage), Earnings Quality (accruals, cash conversion), Growth (revenue and earnings trajectory), Value (P/E, P/B, earnings yield, Graham criteria), Momentum (revenue and earnings acceleration), Safety (Altman Z-Score risk adjustment), and Cash Flow (operating cash flow quality, FCF conversion, cash coverage). The overall score blends 35% quality, 35% value, and 30% momentum, with a penalty for distress-zone Altman scores. DEL scores highest in Earnings Quality (82/100) and lowest in Profitability (16/100). A grade of B indicates above-average fundamentals with room for improvement in select areas.

Risk & Quality Signals

Academic financial models used by institutional investors to assess bankruptcy risk, earnings manipulation, financial strength, and credit quality.

Altman Z-Score
3.28
Safe Zone
Piotroski F-Score
7/9
✓ ✓ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✗ ✓ ✓
Beneish M-Score
-2.80
Unlikely Manipulator
Ohlson O-Score
-6.42
Bankruptcy prob: 0.2%
Low Risk
Credit Rating
BBB
Score: 58.5/100
Trend: Improving
Earnings Quality
75/100
OCF/NI: 6.74x
Accruals: -6.7%
The Altman Z-Score (1968) combines five ratios — working capital, retained earnings, EBIT, market value of equity, and sales, all relative to total assets or liabilities — into a single bankruptcy predictor. DEL scores 3.28, placing it in the Safe Zone (safe > 2.99, distress < 1.81). Bankruptcy is statistically unlikely within the next two years. The Piotroski F-Score (2000) is a 9-point binary checklist — four profitability tests (positive ROA, positive cash flow, improving ROA, cash flow exceeding net income), three leverage tests (declining debt ratio, improving current ratio, no share dilution), and two efficiency tests (improving gross margin, improving asset turnover). Each pass scores 1 point. DEL scores 7/9, signaling strong financial health across all three dimensions. The Beneish M-Score (1999) is an 8-variable model that detects earnings manipulation by comparing year-over-year changes in receivables, gross margins, asset quality, sales growth, depreciation, SG&A, leverage, and accruals. Scores above −1.78 statistically resemble past manipulators. DEL's score of -2.80 falls below this threshold, suggesting earnings are unlikely to be manipulated. The Ohlson O-Score (1980) is a 9-variable logistic regression that estimates bankruptcy probability using firm size, leverage, working capital, current ratio, profitability (ROA), cash flow coverage, negative equity flag, consecutive losses flag, and earnings trajectory. The raw score is converted to a probability via logistic transformation. DEL's implied 0.2% bankruptcy probability is well within safe territory. Our Credit Rating model scores companies on five weighted components — solvency (30%), earning power (25%), leverage (20%), liquidity (15%), and cash flow quality (10%) — then blends the absolute score with sector and industry peer rankings. For companies with large buyback programs, equity is adjusted by adding back cumulative 5-year repurchases (capped at 80% of FCF generated) to avoid penalizing shareholder-friendly capital allocation. DEL receives an estimated rating of BBB (score: 58.5/100), with a improving trend. The Earnings Quality score measures how well reported earnings are backed by real cash. It evaluates the operating cash flow to net income ratio (OCF/NI ≥ 1.0 means every dollar of earnings is cash-backed) and the accruals ratio (the gap between earnings and cash flow relative to assets — lower is better). DEL's score of 75/100 is high — cash flows strongly support reported earnings.

Valuation

Key valuation multiples comparing the stock's market price to its earnings, revenue, book value, and cash flows. Lower multiples may indicate relative undervaluation versus peers.

P/E
176.00x
PEG
-6.08x
P/S
0.00x
P/B
4.44x
P/FCF
47.70x
P/OCF
25.48x
EV/EBITDA
30.76x
EV/Revenue
5.50x
EV/EBIT
81.02x
EV/FCF
57.07x
Earnings Yield
0.58%
FCF Yield
2.10%
Shareholder Yield
0.69%
Graham Number
$15.81
Equity-based multiples (P/E, P/B, P/FCF) compare the stock price to per-share fundamentals and are affected by capital structure. Enterprise value multiples (EV/EBITDA, EV/Revenue, EV/FCF) strip out debt and cash, making them more useful for cross-company comparisons regardless of how companies are financed. The Graham Number — √(22.5 × EPS × Book Value) — is Benjamin Graham's formula for the maximum price a defensive investor should pay. At 176.0x earnings, DEL is priced for high growth expectations. Graham's intrinsic value formula yields $15.81 per share, 490% below the current price.

DuPont Decomposition (5-Factor)

The 5-factor DuPont framework breaks Return on Equity into its component drivers — tax efficiency, interest burden, operating profitability, asset utilization, and financial leverage — to reveal what truly drives shareholder returns.

Tax Burden
0.771
NI / EBT
×
Interest Burden
0.512
EBT / EBIT
×
EBIT Margin
0.068
EBIT / Rev
×
Asset Turnover
0.436
Rev / Assets
×
Equity Multiplier
2.205
Assets / Equity
=
ROE
2.6%
The 5-factor DuPont identity decomposes ROE as: Tax Burden × Interest Burden × EBIT Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier = ROE. This reveals whether returns are driven by operating performance, financial leverage, or tax efficiency — three very different sources of profitability. DEL's ROE of 2.6% is driven by Asset Turnover (0.436), indicating efficient use of assets to generate revenue.

Graham-Dodd Adjusted Valuation

Our adaptation of Graham's growth formula (Fair P/E = 8.5 + 2g) from The Intelligent Investor. The classic version relies on analyst growth projections, which can be unreliable. This adjusted model substitutes the company's realized 3-year EPS CAGR — a backward-looking, verifiable measure of actual earnings power — grounding the valuation in demonstrated performance rather than forecasts.

Two adjustments we make, and why. Growth is capped at 15%. Graham defined g as expected growth over the next seven to ten years, not last year's rate. Across US companies since 1994 the median realized 7-year EPS growth is 5–8% regardless of how fast a company grew beforehand, and of 4,457 company-quarters that grew faster than 200%, none sustained it. Uncapped, the formula assigned fair multiples in the hundreds to companies that had never held that rate — and scored worse than simply reading the P/E. Capped, it carries real information. The verdict has three states, not two. Tested over 377,249 stock-months, this ratio only separates outcomes at its extremes: below 0.25 beat the universe by 1.3 points a year, above 3.0 lagged by 2.7, and everything in between sat inside a one-point band. Rather than call two-thirds of the market "undervalued" on a threshold of 1.0, we say Neutral where the model cannot tell — which is most of the time.

Adj. Growth Rate
0.00%
Fair P/E
8.50x
Intrinsic Value
$4.53
Price/Value
20.19x
Margin of Safety
-1919.15%
Premium
1919.15%
Assessment
Overvalued
Graham's classic formula uses analyst-projected growth to estimate a fair P/E (8.5 + 2g). Our adjusted version replaces that projection with DEL's realized 0.0% 3-year EPS CAGR, capped at 15% — demonstrated performance rather than forecasts, held to a rate companies have historically sustained. DEL trades at a 1919% premium to its adjusted intrinsic value of $4.53, suggesting the market is pricing in future growth beyond what historical earnings support. The adjusted fair P/E of 8.5x compares to the current market P/E of 176.0x.

Profitability Trends

Historical profitability ratios tracking how efficiently the company converts revenue into returns for shareholders over time.

Leverage & Solvency Trends

Debt and liquidity metrics showing the company's financial leverage and ability to meet short-term and long-term obligations.

Efficiency & Working Capital Trends

Operating efficiency metrics measuring how quickly the company converts inventory to sales, collects receivables, and manages its cash conversion cycle.

Growth Trends (YoY %)

Year-over-year growth rates for key financial metrics, showing the trajectory of revenue, earnings, and cash flow generation.

Earnings Stability

R-squared of linear regression measuring how predictably revenue, earnings, and margins follow a trend over the trailing 5 years. 1.0 = perfectly predictable; lower values indicate erratic or cyclical behavior.

Monte Carlo Price Simulation

Geometric Brownian Motion with 1,000 antithetic paths over 1 year, seeded from 1800 days of historical volatility. Percentile bands show the range of statistically plausible outcomes — this is a statistical model, not a forecast.

Current Price
$93.28
Median 1Y
$95.62
5th Pctile
$58.65
95th Pctile
$156.47
Ann. Volatility
30.3%
25th–75th percentile 5th–95th percentile Median path Historical
All Ratios & Metrics

Complete fundamental data with up to 20 periods of history, sparkline trends, and current values across 13 categories and 130+ financial metrics.

Profitability
Metric Trend Q1'13 Q2'13 Q3'13 Q4'13 Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16 Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Current
ROE 6.8% 9.9% 10.8% 10.5% 9.5% 7.1% 7.1% 7.4% 6.2% 4.5% 2.4% 1.0% 0.4% 1.8% 2.4% 3.7% 4.1% 3.4% 3.8% 2.6% 2.57%
ROA 4.4% 6.2% 6.9% 6.9% 5.4% 3.9% 3.9% 4.2% 3.2% 2.3% 1.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.8% 1.1% 1.7% 1.8% 1.5% 1.7% 1.2% 1.17%
ROIC 6.0% 7.6% 8.5% 8.3% 5.9% 4.6% 4.6% 5.0% 4.4% 3.5% 2.3% 1.7% 1.8% 2.3% 2.6% 3.3% 3.2% 2.8% 3.0% 2.7% 2.69%
ROCE 8.0% 10.1% 11.2% 11.1% 8.1% 6.4% 6.4% 6.8% 5.9% 4.6% 3.3% 2.3% 2.0% 3.1% 3.6% 4.1% 4.2% 3.9% 4.2% 3.1% 3.11%
Gross Margin 43.4% 35.3% 34.0% 26.6% 33.9% 32.6% 32.2% 26.5% 29.7% 27.2% 22.9% 22.3% 27.9% 33.2% 29.9% 34.3% 30.1% 31.6% 29.0% 41.3% 41.28%
Operating Margin 28.0% 32.9% 17.0% 9.6% 16.0% 16.6% 15.5% 12.9% 9.6% 6.4% 4.1% 3.4% 6.5% 14.7% 8.7% 9.7% 7.8% 11.4% 10.3% -0.5% -0.53%
Net Margin 16.3% 21.2% 10.3% 4.8% 8.9% 9.0% 10.2% 6.3% 4.0% 1.8% 0.1% -0.3% 0.8% 7.4% 2.8% 5.4% 2.0% 4.9% 4.1% 0.3% 0.26%
EBITDA Margin 34.3% 40.7% 24.9% 17.7% 24.8% 24.5% 23.6% 20.4% 19.9% 18.0% 15.1% 14.1% 18.1% 24.6% 19.7% 20.0% 20.5% 22.4% 20.7% 10.1% 10.06%
FCF Margin 1.0% -1.6% -0.2% 6.9% -41.5% 10.0% 7.8% 6.8% 56.6% 4.1% 2.9% 0.7% -4.7% 0.8% -1.4% 2.2% 2.8% 2.5% 4.7% 9.6% 9.63%
OCF Margin 20.4% 19.6% 19.7% 21.1% 17.3% 16.8% 15.1% 13.9% 16.8% 15.1% 15.1% 15.3% 11.8% 16.9% 16.3% 19.9% 19.0% 17.4% 16.9% 18.0% 18.04%
ROE 3Y Avg snapshot only 2.43%
ROE 5Y Avg snapshot only 4.89%
ROA 3Y Avg snapshot only 1.11%
ROIC 3Y Avg snapshot only 1.61%
ROIC Economic snapshot only 2.66%
Cash ROA snapshot only 7.84%
Cash ROIC snapshot only 9.26%
CROIC snapshot only 4.95%
NOPAT Margin snapshot only 5.23%
Pretax Margin snapshot only 3.47%
R&D / Revenue snapshot only 0.00%
SGA / Revenue snapshot only 15.81%
SBC / Revenue snapshot only 1.84%
Valuation
Metric Trend Q1'13 Q2'13 Q3'13 Q4'13 Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16 Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Current
P/E Ratio 52.96 30.07 30.55 31.95 33.09 40.63 41.30 42.77 48.98 68.51 117.93 270.54 635.09 177.28 135.57 100.55 95.22 107.16 113.85 171.63 176.000
P/S Ratio 5.55 4.24 4.27 4.19 3.77 3.41 3.47 3.70 3.70 4.03 3.71 3.70 3.68 3.87 3.85 4.24 4.26 4.09 4.70 4.60 0.000
P/B Ratio 3.52 2.86 3.18 3.14 2.97 2.76 2.81 3.14 3.03 3.11 2.85 2.83 3.02 3.32 3.32 3.70 3.77 3.58 4.21 4.40 4.444
P/FCF 566.71 -260.32 -2031.18 60.53 -9.09 34.00 44.17 54.05 6.54 98.93 126.69 562.70 -78.18 487.94 -275.65 190.88 154.26 166.88 100.92 47.70 47.705
P/OCF 27.21 21.62 21.65 19.86 21.86 20.33 23.02 26.67 22.03 26.71 24.52 24.21 31.08 22.86 23.61 21.32 22.44 23.49 27.86 25.48 25.479
EV/EBITDA 23.22 15.63 15.54 15.76 17.21 18.72 19.18 19.63 20.72 24.24 25.85 28.92 30.23 27.63 25.81 25.70 25.25 25.01 27.39 30.76 30.758
EV/Revenue 5.96 4.80 4.74 4.62 4.67 4.33 4.37 4.58 4.60 5.00 4.75 4.83 4.92 5.02 4.98 5.31 5.36 5.16 5.72 5.50 5.499
EV/EBIT 31.66 20.28 20.35 21.26 24.54 28.86 29.93 30.02 33.31 43.87 56.79 83.01 97.19 67.89 58.51 53.15 52.16 54.78 58.14 81.02 81.021
EV/FCF 608.13 -294.80 -2253.97 66.72 -11.26 43.20 55.74 66.92 8.12 122.83 162.47 733.80 -104.54 632.28 -356.93 239.14 193.92 210.50 122.78 57.07 57.074
Earnings Yield 1.9% 3.3% 3.3% 3.1% 3.0% 2.5% 2.4% 2.3% 2.0% 1.5% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.6% 0.7% 1.0% 1.1% 0.9% 0.9% 0.6% 0.58%
FCF Yield 0.2% -0.4% -0.0% 1.7% -11.0% 2.9% 2.3% 1.9% 15.3% 1.0% 0.8% 0.2% -1.3% 0.2% -0.4% 0.5% 0.6% 0.6% 1.0% 2.1% 2.10%
Price/Tangible Book snapshot only 4.396
EV/OCF snapshot only 30.483
EV/Gross Profit snapshot only 16.422
Acquirers Multiple snapshot only 81.021
Shareholder Yield snapshot only 0.69%
Graham Number snapshot only $15.81
Leverage & Solvency
Metric Trend Q1'13 Q2'13 Q3'13 Q4'13 Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16 Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Current
Current Ratio 1.70 1.50 1.44 1.25 1.66 1.75 1.52 1.81 1.77 1.64 1.24 0.53 0.61 0.52 0.49 1.51 1.75 1.48 1.72 1.52 1.521
Quick Ratio 1.38 0.99 0.88 0.68 0.99 1.12 0.90 1.10 1.18 1.16 0.73 0.32 0.41 0.34 0.31 0.90 1.04 0.92 1.18 1.03 1.029
Debt/Equity 0.31 0.40 0.37 0.34 0.74 0.78 0.75 0.76 0.75 0.76 0.81 0.88 1.04 1.00 0.99 0.96 0.98 0.96 0.94 0.90 0.903
Net Debt/Equity 0.26 0.38 0.35 0.32 0.71 0.75 0.74 0.75 0.73 0.75 0.80 0.86 1.02 0.98 0.98 0.94 0.97 0.94 0.91 0.86 0.863
Debt/Assets 0.20 0.24 0.23 0.22 0.38 0.39 0.39 0.39 0.38 0.38 0.39 0.41 0.45 0.44 0.44 0.43 0.44 0.43 0.43 0.41 0.410
Debt/EBITDA 1.93 1.94 1.64 1.54 3.43 4.15 4.07 3.83 4.13 4.77 5.73 6.91 7.76 6.40 5.95 5.31 5.24 5.29 5.00 5.28 5.284
Net Debt/EBITDA 1.58 1.83 1.54 1.46 3.32 3.99 3.98 3.78 4.04 4.72 5.69 6.74 7.62 6.31 5.88 5.19 5.16 5.18 4.88 5.05 5.049
Interest Coverage 6.99 9.15 9.83 9.48 8.61 6.58 6.50 6.39 5.17 3.96 2.45 1.50 1.15 1.68 1.89 2.33 2.74 2.57 2.77 2.05 2.048
Equity Multiplier 1.57 1.67 1.65 1.54 1.93 1.97 1.94 1.97 1.97 1.98 2.06 2.12 2.29 2.27 2.27 2.21 2.22 2.21 2.19 2.20 2.201
Cash Ratio snapshot only 0.343
Debt Service Coverage snapshot only 5.395
Cash to Debt snapshot only 0.044
FCF to Debt snapshot only 0.102
Defensive Interval snapshot only 122.4 days
Efficiency & Turnover
Metric Trend Q1'13 Q2'13 Q3'13 Q4'13 Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16 Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Current
Asset Turnover 0.42 0.44 0.50 0.52 0.47 0.46 0.47 0.48 0.42 0.39 0.37 0.36 0.36 0.38 0.39 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.41 0.44 0.436
Inventory Turnover 18.49 12.63 12.97 15.09 14.43 12.36 11.41 13.05 12.22 13.14 11.34 12.34 13.26 14.44 12.80 12.45 12.86 13.11 14.22 12.03 12.031
Receivables Turnover 21.62 17.52 22.52 31.68 23.00 18.26 20.71 27.70 21.14 19.17 19.59 24.11 17.99 18.39 19.74 28.01 17.84 17.95 18.52 23.78 23.778
Payables Turnover 27.76 24.89 20.12 25.69 24.29 24.82 19.15 20.80 18.62 22.45 14.18 18.46 17.79 18.10 13.14 17.26 18.55 17.40 16.72 12.08 12.080
DSO 17 21 16 12 16 20 18 13 17 19 19 15 20 20 18 13 20 20 20 15 15.4 days
DIO 20 29 28 24 25 30 32 28 30 28 32 30 28 25 29 29 28 28 26 30 30.3 days
DPO 13 15 18 14 15 15 19 18 20 16 26 20 21 20 28 21 20 21 22 30 30.2 days
Cash Conversion Cycle 23 35 26 22 26 35 31 24 28 31 25 25 27 25 19 21 29 27 24 15 15.5 days
Fixed Asset Turnover snapshot only 2.359
Operating Cycle snapshot only 45.7 days
Cash Velocity snapshot only 23.861
Capital Intensity snapshot only 2.301
Growth (YoY)
Metric Trend Q1'13 Q2'13 Q3'13 Q4'13 Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16 Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Current
Revenue 23.3% 31.3% 41.3% 41.7% 40.6% 30.3% 17.4% 13.8% 3.2% -5.2% -9.7% -14.7% -11.0% -0.1% 5.6% 13.2% 13.2% 6.5% 8.6% 10.4% 10.44%
Net Income 5.0% 4.7% 3.0% 1.8% 52.9% -22.4% -29.5% -24.9% -31.5% -33.6% -66.2% -86.5% -93.2% -62.9% -4.6% 2.5% 7.7% 86.2% 58.1% -29.8% -29.82%
EPS 5.0% 4.7% 2.9% 1.8% 52.9% -22.2% -28.8% -24.3% -31.0% -33.2% -66.2% -86.3% -93.0% -61.4% -0.9% 2.5% 7.7% 85.0% 56.3% -30.1% -30.13%
FCF -77.4% -1.4% -1.0% 3.7% -60.6% 9.0% 44.8% 12.5% 2.4% -61.5% -66.3% -91.8% -1.1% -80.5% -1.5% 2.8% 1.7% 2.3% 4.6% 3.8% 3.79%
EBITDA 1.0% 1.4% 1.3% 1.0% 48.9% -1.8% -12.2% -9.4% -15.6% -15.5% -27.2% -38.9% -34.8% -12.1% 10.9% 40.0% 47.5% 21.0% 17.5% -4.4% -4.42%
Op. Income 2.4% 2.6% 2.2% 1.5% 47.1% -15.6% -25.7% -20.1% -25.1% -28.0% -48.3% -67.5% -67.4% -35.3% 7.5% 94.3% 1.3% 35.8% 25.5% -25.0% -24.96%
OCF Growth snapshot only 0.25%
Asset Growth snapshot only 0.51%
Equity Growth snapshot only 0.85%
Debt Growth snapshot only -4.98%
Shares Change snapshot only 0.44%
Dividend Growth snapshot only -0.11%
Growth (CAGR)
Metric Trend Q1'13 Q2'13 Q3'13 Q4'13 Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16 Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Current
Revenue 3Y 7.8% 8.7% 10.6% 12.1% 15.4% 18.2% 20.3% 23.1% 21.4% 17.5% 14.4% 11.2% 8.9% 7.2% 3.8% 3.2% 1.3% 0.3% 1.2% 2.1% 2.14%
Revenue 5Y 5.6% 7.7% 8.5% 8.7% 11.0% 13.1% 14.5% 15.2% 12.7% 9.6% 7.5% 6.5% 7.1% 9.4% 10.7% 12.5% 12.5% 11.5% 11.4% 11.4% 11.45%
EPS 3Y 30.3% 25.6% 20.4% 28.0% 33.1% 39.7% 64.8% 95.2% 84.6% 43.8% -1.7% -33.5% -57.9% -41.5% -38.0% -28.4% -24.9% -21.9% -19.4% -30.3% -30.27%
EPS 5Y 30.8% 42.6% 32.8% 42.5% 46.3% 53.5% — 39.7% 18.5% 0.6% -15.9% -26.3% -35.1% -6.8% 8.4% 29.3% 31.0% 16.2% 8.1% -6.2% -6.18%
Net Income 3Y 30.8% 26.3% 21.0% 28.3% 33.5% 39.9% 64.8% 94.8% 84.3% 43.5% -1.9% -34.0% -58.5% -42.4% -39.0% -29.3% -25.8% -22.9% -20.1% -30.9% -30.90%
Net Income 5Y 31.2% 42.8% 33.0% 43.0% 46.7% 53.9% — 39.8% 18.6% 0.8% -15.8% -26.5% -35.6% -7.5% 7.6% 28.3% 30.1% 15.4% 7.3% -6.8% -6.82%
EBITDA 3Y 15.6% 16.7% 14.4% 18.1% 21.2% 24.0% 31.7% 39.2% 36.0% 25.6% 14.3% 4.0% -6.4% -10.0% -10.8% -8.2% -6.7% -3.5% -1.7% -6.5% -6.52%
EBITDA 5Y 9.1% 16.3% 17.2% 19.4% 20.5% 19.3% 22.0% 20.3% 14.2% 5.7% -0.9% -1.8% -0.4% 7.2% 13.0% 18.2% 19.3% 16.1% 14.3% 8.5% 8.53%
Gross Profit 3Y 14.4% 11.4% 10.6% 12.7% 15.0% 20.2% 23.9% 27.3% 23.9% 16.3% 8.0% 2.2% -4.1% -3.4% -4.0% 0.0% 0.6% -0.2% 0.9% 4.4% 4.44%
Gross Profit 5Y 10.1% 12.1% 12.4% 12.7% 14.1% 17.2% 19.5% 17.3% 12.5% 6.2% 1.1% 0.5% 1.4% 6.6% 10.4% 14.9% 15.1% 12.7% 11.2% 11.9% 11.92%
Op. Income 3Y 37.0% 33.1% 27.1% 34.3% 40.1% 43.2% 58.1% 66.9% 55.8% 30.2% 6.8% -13.0% -28.9% -26.7% -25.5% -20.4% -17.5% -14.1% -11.3% -22.0% -22.03%
Op. Income 5Y 28.1% 40.4% 37.9% 42.1% 44.0% 48.2% 64.4% 42.7% 23.2% 7.5% -4.7% -8.8% -7.7% 6.5% 17.0% 24.1% 23.2% 14.2% 10.4% -0.8% -0.82%
FCF 3Y — — — -6.5% — 24.9% 68.5% 70.7% 1.7% 11.1% -20.1% -24.4% — — — -29.4% — -37.3% -15.0% 14.5% 14.48%
FCF 5Y — — — — — — — — — — 4.0% -40.4% — -31.9% — 9.3% -1.4% -2.6% -1.4% 51.3% 51.26%
OCF 3Y 14.2% 9.0% 5.9% 13.4% 16.5% 16.6% 25.4% 29.1% 27.2% 20.6% 12.4% 7.2% -9.2% 2.2% -2.5% 1.1% 4.6% 1.6% 5.1% 11.5% 11.50%
OCF 5Y 10.9% 11.8% 10.6% 14.2% 12.7% 14.7% 17.2% 13.3% 12.3% 4.2% -0.7% 0.5% -0.1% 8.7% 15.3% 24.4% 18.6% 16.6% 12.7% 12.7% 12.66%
Assets 3Y 2.0% 5.9% 6.0% 6.2% 14.7% 15.7% 15.4% 15.5% 15.4% 15.8% 16.1% 15.1% 13.3% 9.7% 10.2% 10.5% 2.1% 1.5% 1.8% 1.9% 1.88%
Assets 5Y 2.8% 4.6% 4.1% 4.2% 9.4% 9.7% 9.5% 8.4% 8.4% 8.8% 8.9% 9.5% 9.5% 9.8% 10.0% 10.2% 10.1% 10.1% 10.3% 9.6% 9.56%
Equity 3Y 3.1% 3.8% 3.8% 5.0% 5.5% 5.2% 5.4% 5.6% 5.7% 5.3% 3.5% 3.0% -0.1% -1.0% -1.1% -1.9% -2.5% -2.3% -2.1% -1.8% -1.82%
Book Value 3Y 2.8% 3.2% 3.2% 4.7% 5.2% 5.0% 5.4% 5.8% 5.9% 5.4% 3.7% 3.8% 1.2% 0.6% 0.5% -0.6% -1.3% -1.0% -1.2% -0.9% -0.92%
Dividend 3Y — — — — 58.3% 25.7% 9.9% 0.0% -0.1% -0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.9% 0.9% 0.6% 0.2% 0.5% 0.9% 0.8% 1.0% 1.02%
Growth Quality
Metric Trend Q1'13 Q2'13 Q3'13 Q4'13 Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16 Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Current
Revenue Stability 0.60 0.64 0.47 0.41 0.55 0.73 0.82 0.84 0.81 0.77 0.69 0.61 0.65 0.77 0.72 0.65 0.62 0.66 0.70 0.71 0.714
Earnings Stability 0.39 0.44 0.38 0.49 0.63 0.52 0.49 0.55 0.51 0.18 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.08 0.14 0.24 0.242
Margin Stability 0.90 0.91 0.90 0.91 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.91 0.90 0.90 0.88 0.88 0.86 0.88 0.88 0.89 0.90 0.93 0.92 0.90 0.897
Rev. Growth Consistency 0.50 0.50 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 1.00 1.00 1.000
Earn. Growth Consistency 0.50 0.50 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.00 0.000
FCF Positive Streak 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 1
Earnings Persistence 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.91 0.88 0.90 0.87 0.87 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.98 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.88 0.881
Earnings Smoothness 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.58 0.75 0.65 0.72 0.63 0.60 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.08 0.95 0.00 0.00 0.40 0.55 0.65 0.650
ROE Trend 0.04 0.07 0.08 0.07 0.05 0.01 0.00 0.00 -0.02 -0.04 -0.06 -0.08 -0.07 -0.04 -0.02 -0.01 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.002
Gross Margin Trend 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.04 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 -0.02 -0.04 -0.05 -0.07 -0.07 -0.06 -0.04 -0.01 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.050
FCF Margin Trend -0.06 -0.08 -0.06 0.05 -0.45 0.08 0.04 0.02 0.77 -0.00 -0.01 -0.06 -0.12 -0.06 -0.07 -0.02 -0.23 0.00 0.04 0.08 0.082
Sustainable Growth Rate 6.3% 8.8% 9.2% 8.5% 7.5% 5.1% 5.1% 5.5% 4.3% 2.7% 0.5% -0.9% -1.5% -0.2% 0.4% 1.7% 2.1% 1.4% 1.8% 0.6% 0.64%
Internal Growth Rate 4.2% 5.9% 6.3% 5.8% 4.5% 2.9% 2.9% 3.2% 2.3% 1.4% 0.2% — — — 0.2% 0.8% 0.9% 0.6% 0.8% 0.3% 0.29%
Cash Flow Quality
Metric Trend Q1'13 Q2'13 Q3'13 Q4'13 Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16 Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Current
OCF/Net Income 1.95 1.39 1.41 1.61 1.51 2.00 1.79 1.60 2.22 2.57 4.81 11.18 20.43 7.75 5.74 4.72 4.24 4.56 4.09 6.74 6.736
FCF/OCF 0.05 -0.08 -0.01 0.33 -2.40 0.60 0.52 0.49 3.37 0.27 0.19 0.04 -0.40 0.05 -0.09 0.11 0.15 0.14 0.28 0.53 0.534
FCF/Net Income snapshot only 3.598
OCF/EBITDA snapshot only 1.009
CapEx/Revenue 19.4% 21.2% 19.9% 14.2% 58.7% 6.7% 7.2% 7.0% 39.8% 11.0% 12.2% 14.6% 16.5% 16.1% 17.7% 17.7% 16.2% 15.0% 12.2% 8.4% 8.40%
CapEx/Depreciation snapshot only 0.758
Accruals Ratio -0.04 -0.02 -0.03 -0.04 -0.03 -0.04 -0.03 -0.03 -0.04 -0.04 -0.04 -0.05 -0.04 -0.06 -0.05 -0.06 -0.06 -0.05 -0.05 -0.07 -0.067
Sloan Accruals snapshot only -0.039
Cash Flow Adequacy snapshot only 1.732
Earnings Quality Score snapshot only 0.750
Dividends & Buybacks
Metric Trend Q1'13 Q2'13 Q3'13 Q4'13 Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16 Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Current
Dividend Yield 0.2% 0.4% 0.5% 0.6% 0.6% 0.7% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.32%
Dividend/Share $0.10 $0.20 $0.30 $0.40 $0.40 $0.40 $0.41 $0.40 $0.40 $0.40 $0.40 $0.41 $0.41 $0.41 $0.41 $0.40 $0.40 $0.40 $0.40 $0.40 $0.30
Payout Ratio 8.0% 10.7% 14.5% 19.4% 20.9% 27.7% 27.3% 25.7% 30.3% 41.3% 80.5% 1.9% 4.4% 1.1% 81.8% 52.6% 49.0% 57.8% 51.6% 75.1% 75.14%
FCF Payout Ratio 85.4% — — 36.7% — 23.1% 29.3% 32.5% 4.0% 59.7% 86.5% 3.9% — 3.0% — 99.8% 79.3% 89.9% 45.7% 20.9% 20.89%
Total Payout Ratio 8.0% 10.8% 23.0% 27.9% 30.0% 60.4% 69.8% 65.7% 77.5% 74.9% 2.3% 7.6% 31.2% 7.8% 4.3% 2.5% 82.9% 97.8% 87.3% 1.2% 1.19%
Div. Increase Streak 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Chowder Number — — — — 3.01 1.00 0.34 0.00 -0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 -0.02 -0.03 -0.02 -0.01 0.00 0.01 0.008
Buyback Yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.8% 1.0% 0.9% 1.0% 0.5% 1.3% 2.1% 4.2% 3.8% 2.6% 2.0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.25%
Net Buyback Yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.8% 1.0% 0.9% 1.0% 0.5% 1.3% 2.1% 4.2% 3.8% 2.6% 2.0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.25%
Total Shareholder Return 0.2% 0.4% 0.8% 0.9% 0.9% 1.5% 1.7% 1.5% 1.6% 1.1% 2.0% 2.8% 4.9% 4.4% 3.2% 2.5% 0.9% 0.9% 0.8% 0.7% 0.69%
DuPont Factors
Metric Trend Q1'13 Q2'13 Q3'13 Q4'13 Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16 Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Current
Tax Burden (NI/EBT) 0.65 0.67 0.67 0.67 0.68 0.66 0.68 0.67 0.68 0.69 0.64 0.71 0.85 0.73 0.71 0.74 0.69 0.66 0.66 0.77 0.771
Interest Burden (EBT/EBIT) 0.86 0.89 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.85 0.85 0.84 0.81 0.75 0.59 0.33 0.13 0.40 0.47 0.57 0.64 0.61 0.64 0.51 0.512
EBIT Margin 0.19 0.24 0.23 0.22 0.19 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.14 0.11 0.08 0.06 0.05 0.07 0.09 0.10 0.10 0.09 0.10 0.07 0.068
Asset Turnover 0.42 0.44 0.50 0.52 0.47 0.46 0.47 0.48 0.42 0.39 0.37 0.36 0.36 0.38 0.39 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.41 0.44 0.436
Equity Multiplier 1.54 1.58 1.56 1.53 1.76 1.82 1.80 1.76 1.95 1.98 2.00 2.04 2.12 2.12 2.16 2.17 2.26 2.24 2.23 2.20 2.205
Per Share
Metric Trend Q1'13 Q2'13 Q3'13 Q4'13 Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16 Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Current
EPS (Diluted TTM) $1.26 $1.87 $2.08 $2.08 $1.93 $1.46 $1.48 $1.57 $1.33 $0.97 $0.50 $0.22 $0.09 $0.38 $0.50 $0.76 $0.82 $0.70 $0.78 $0.53 $0.53
Book Value/Share $19.00 $19.72 $19.98 $21.13 $21.47 $21.48 $21.78 $21.41 $21.55 $21.48 $20.76 $20.61 $19.72 $20.07 $20.31 $20.74 $20.66 $20.82 $21.01 $20.83 $20.99
Tangible Book/Share $19.00 $19.72 $19.98 $21.13 $21.47 $21.48 $21.78 $21.41 $21.55 $21.48 $20.76 $20.61 $19.72 $20.07 $20.31 $20.74 $20.66 $20.82 $21.01 $20.83 $20.83
Revenue/Share $12.05 $13.30 $14.90 $15.85 $16.94 $17.38 $17.66 $18.19 $17.62 $16.57 $15.95 $15.73 $16.21 $17.21 $17.51 $18.11 $18.28 $18.22 $18.82 $19.92 $20.07
FCF/Share $0.12 $-0.22 $-0.03 $1.10 $-7.03 $1.74 $1.39 $1.24 $9.98 $0.67 $0.47 $0.10 $-0.76 $0.14 $-0.24 $0.40 $0.50 $0.45 $0.88 $1.92 $1.93
OCF/Share $2.46 $2.61 $2.94 $3.34 $2.92 $2.91 $2.66 $2.52 $2.96 $2.50 $2.41 $2.41 $1.92 $2.92 $2.85 $3.60 $3.47 $3.17 $3.17 $3.59 $3.62
Cash/Share $1.06 $0.46 $0.48 $0.35 $0.52 $0.64 $0.37 $0.22 $0.36 $0.17 $0.12 $0.44 $0.37 $0.29 $0.25 $0.48 $0.31 $0.40 $0.49 $0.83 $0.84
EBITDA/Share $3.09 $4.08 $4.54 $4.65 $4.60 $4.02 $4.03 $4.24 $3.91 $3.42 $2.93 $2.63 $2.64 $3.13 $3.38 $3.74 $3.88 $3.76 $3.93 $3.56 $3.56
Debt/Share $5.95 $7.92 $7.45 $7.14 $15.79 $16.68 $16.41 $16.24 $16.15 $16.29 $16.81 $18.16 $20.48 $20.01 $20.11 $19.89 $20.33 $19.89 $19.65 $18.82 $18.82
Net Debt/Share $4.89 $7.46 $6.97 $6.80 $15.27 $16.03 $16.03 $16.02 $15.79 $16.13 $16.69 $17.72 $20.11 $19.72 $19.86 $19.41 $20.03 $19.49 $19.16 $17.98 $17.98
Academic Models
Metric Trend Q1'13 Q2'13 Q3'13 Q4'13 Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16 Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Current
Altman Z-Score — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — 3.284
Altman Z-Prime snapshot only 5.439
Piotroski F-Score 7 7 6 5 5 6 6 5 6 5 4 4 4 5 6 8 8 7 7 7 7
Beneish M-Score -2.63 -1.80 -2.21 -2.19 -1.94 -2.59 -0.58 -2.22 -2.49 -1.96 -2.54 -2.90 -2.63 -2.97 -2.71 -2.87 -2.73 -2.69 -2.58 -2.80 -2.801
Ohlson O-Score snapshot only -6.415
ROIC (Greenblatt) snapshot only 13.92%
Net-Net WC snapshot only $-21.31
EVA snapshot only $-34524778.61
Credit
Metric Trend Q1'13 Q2'13 Q3'13 Q4'13 Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16 Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Current
Credit Rating snapshot only BBB
Credit Score 81.81 77.12 79.80 82.44 71.13 65.76 63.67 70.71 75.01 64.12 49.76 31.11 30.30 32.98 32.76 50.87 51.65 48.87 57.09 58.54 58.542
Credit Grade snapshot only 9
Credit Trend snapshot only 7.669
Implied Spread (bps) snapshot only 275.000
Industry Credit Rank snapshot only 59
Sector Credit Rank snapshot only 41

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