Also trades as: HFC (NYSE) · $vol 91M
DINO NYSE
HF Sinclair Corporation
1W: -9.0%
1M: +7.4%
3M: +27.5%
YTD: +149.2%
1Y: +116.0%
3Y: +129.2%
5Y: +260.8%
$114.21
-11.04 (-8.81%)
Weekly Expected Move ±4.5%
$111
$116
$122
$127
$133
Credit Risk of going bust: lower than 67% of companies Debt: 12.4% of company value Bonds: $101.1M held by 182 funds, 91 bp over Treasuries → details ▾
Of US companies ranked in the safest four tenths, about 1 in 3,500 filed for bankruptcy within a year (2020-2025).
If the stock fell to about $1.39 (down 99%), HF Sinclair Corporation would be worth roughly what it owes.
Total debt $2.86B against a stock market value of $20.30B.
Distance to default 7.08 (Merton model): prices to 2026-10-27, balance sheet 2026-06-30, debt counted $1.48B (short-term plus half of long-term), stock volatility 40.2%; Altman Z'' 4.62. A ranking and a back-test, not a forecast.
Bond figures are fund-reported marks (SEC N-PORT) as of Jul 2026. How these are computed.
If the stock fell to about $1.39 (down 99%), HF Sinclair Corporation would be worth roughly what it owes.
Total debt $2.86B against a stock market value of $20.30B.
Distance to default 7.08 (Merton model): prices to 2026-10-27, balance sheet 2026-06-30, debt counted $1.48B (short-term plus half of long-term), stock volatility 40.2%; Altman Z'' 4.62. A ranking and a back-test, not a forecast.
Bond figures are fund-reported marks (SEC N-PORT) as of Jul 2026. How these are computed.
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Short Interest
Supply Chain
Oct Typical
☀️
Sunny
+17.7% YTD avg
Midterm Year
☀️
Sunny
+35.8% YTD avg
2026 Now
☀️
Sunny
Above typical
20yr Avg YTD
+17.7%
Day 206 of 252
Midterm Year YTD
+35.8%
Presidential cycle avg
2026 YTD
+149.2%
Above 20yr avg
Typical Vol
51%
Annualized
Monthly Weather Forecast
Jan
20yr
💨
+4.7%
Midterm
⛅
+3.2%
65% win
43% vol
Feb
20yr
💨
+4.9%
Midterm
⛈️
-6.4%
40% win
46% vol
Mar
20yr
💨
+6.0%
Midterm
☀️
+7.3%
50% win
53% vol
Apr
20yr
💨
+6.2%
Midterm
☀️
+14.2%
30% win
46% vol
May
20yr
💨
+9.7%
Midterm
☀️
+27.6%
55% win
45% vol
Jun
20yr
🌫️
+10.4%
Midterm
☀️
+22.9%
50% win
44% vol
Jul
20yr
💨
+14.0%
Midterm
☀️
+32.2%
75% win
37% vol
Aug
20yr
💨
+16.5%
Midterm
☀️
+30.5%
60% win
43% vol
Sep
20yr
⛈️
+14.5%
Midterm
☀️
+28.0%
55% win
44% vol
Oct
20yr
💨
+17.9%
Midterm
☀️
+35.6%
62% win
51% vol
Now:
+6.3%
Nov
20yr
💨
+18.0%
Midterm
☀️
+41.6%
50% win
57% vol
Dec
20yr
⛈️
-0.8%
Midterm
⛈️
-6.6%
60% win
38% vol
Seasonality (20yr)
Updated: 2026-10-27
YTD: +149.2%