EBAY NASDAQ
eBay Inc.
1W: -2.8%
1M: +9.8%
3M: +2.5%
YTD: +36.6%
1Y: +22.8%
3Y: +203.8%
5Y: +72.2%
$117.83
-0.79 (-0.67%)
Weekly Expected Move ±3.9%
$112
$117
$121
$126
$131
Credit Risk of going bust: lower than 70% of companies Debt: 12.0% of company value Bonds: $159.5M held by 177 funds, 71 bp over Treasuries → details ▾
Of US companies ranked in the safest four tenths, about 1 in 3,500 filed for bankruptcy within a year (2020-2025).
If the stock fell to about $1.44 (down 99%), eBay Inc. would be worth roughly what it owes.
Total debt $7.13B against a stock market value of $52.43B.
Distance to default 7.63 (Merton model): prices to 2026-10-27, balance sheet 2026-06-30, debt counted $4.16B (short-term plus half of long-term), stock volatility 36.5%; Altman Z'' 8.72. A ranking and a back-test, not a forecast.
Bond figures are fund-reported marks (SEC N-PORT) as of Jul 2026. How these are computed.
If the stock fell to about $1.44 (down 99%), eBay Inc. would be worth roughly what it owes.
Total debt $7.13B against a stock market value of $52.43B.
Distance to default 7.63 (Merton model): prices to 2026-10-27, balance sheet 2026-06-30, debt counted $4.16B (short-term plus half of long-term), stock volatility 36.5%; Altman Z'' 8.72. A ranking and a back-test, not a forecast.
Bond figures are fund-reported marks (SEC N-PORT) as of Jul 2026. How these are computed.
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Supply Chain
Oct Typical
☀️
Sunny
+14.4% YTD avg
Midterm Year
⛈️
Stormy
-16.2% YTD avg
2026 Now
☀️
Sunny
Above typical
20yr Avg YTD
+14.4%
Day 206 of 252
Midterm Year YTD
-16.2%
Presidential cycle avg
2026 YTD
+36.6%
Above 20yr avg
Typical Vol
42%
Annualized
Monthly Weather Forecast
Jan
20yr
💨
+1.7%
Midterm
🌧️
-2.3%
55% win
38% vol
Feb
20yr
⛅
+2.9%
Midterm
🌧️
-1.9%
60% win
34% vol
Mar
20yr
⛅
+4.8%
Midterm
🌧️
-1.6%
55% win
32% vol
Apr
20yr
⛅
+6.0%
Midterm
⛈️
-9.3%
60% win
34% vol
May
20yr
☁️
+6.2%
Midterm
⛈️
-14.6%
50% win
28% vol
Jun
20yr
☁️
+7.0%
Midterm
⛈️
-19.6%
45% win
27% vol
Jul
20yr
💨
+12.9%
Midterm
⛈️
-19.6%
75% win
36% vol
Aug
20yr
⛅
+15.2%
Midterm
⛈️
-15.4%
55% win
30% vol
Sep
20yr
🌫️
+15.3%
Midterm
⛈️
-17.3%
55% win
32% vol
Oct
20yr
⛈️
+13.4%
Midterm
⛈️
-15.3%
33% win
42% vol
Now:
+11.1%
Nov
20yr
⛅
+12.8%
Midterm
⛈️
-11.2%
60% win
34% vol
Dec
20yr
☁️
+0.2%
Midterm
🌧️
-4.8%
45% win
26% vol
Seasonality (20yr)
Updated: 2026-10-27
YTD: +36.6%