— Know what they know.
Not Investment Advice

EXCE OTC

EXCO Resources, Inc.
1W: -5.7% 1M: -4.6% 3M: +7.9% YTD: +40.1% 1Y: +80.9% 3Y: +238.0% 5Y: +402.0%
$25.35
+0.05 (+0.20%)
 
Weekly Expected Move ±4.5%
$23 $24 $25 $26 $28
OTC · Energy · Oil & Gas Exploration & Production · Tech Score Neutral · Power 50 · $547.2M mcap · 22M float · 0.031% daily turnover · Short 67% of daily vol

InsiderStreet Scorecard

Proprietary multi-factor scorecard rating companies across seven fundamental dimensions — profitability, balance sheet strength, earnings quality, growth, value, momentum, and safety — each scored 0–100.

★ ★ ★ ★ ★ 24 Grade D
Profitability
48
Balance Sheet
16
Earnings Quality
18
Growth
52
Value
15
Momentum
50
Safety
0
Cash Flow
22
The InsiderStreet Scorecard rates companies across eight dimensions: Profitability (margins, ROA, ROE), Balance Sheet (leverage, liquidity, coverage), Earnings Quality (accruals, cash conversion), Growth (revenue and earnings trajectory), Value (P/E, P/B, earnings yield, Graham criteria), Momentum (revenue and earnings acceleration), Safety (Altman Z-Score risk adjustment), and Cash Flow (operating cash flow quality, FCF conversion, cash coverage). The overall score blends 35% quality, 35% value, and 30% momentum, with a penalty for distress-zone Altman scores. EXCE scores highest in Growth (52/100) and lowest in Safety (0/100). A grade of D flags significant fundamental concerns across multiple dimensions.

Risk & Quality Signals

Academic financial models used by institutional investors to assess bankruptcy risk, earnings manipulation, financial strength, and credit quality.

Altman Z-Score
-6.66
Distress Zone
Piotroski F-Score
6/9
✗ ✓ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✗ ✓ ✓
Beneish M-Score
-3.78
Unlikely Manipulator
Ohlson O-Score
2.20
Bankruptcy prob: 90.1%
High Risk
Credit Rating
CCC
Score: 16.2/100
Trend: Improving
Earnings Quality
—
OCF/NI: -0.73x
Accruals: -33.8%
The Altman Z-Score (1968) combines five ratios — working capital, retained earnings, EBIT, market value of equity, and sales, all relative to total assets or liabilities — into a single bankruptcy predictor. EXCE scores -6.66, placing it in the Distress Zone (safe > 2.99, distress < 1.81). Historically, companies in this range face elevated bankruptcy risk. The Piotroski F-Score (2000) is a 9-point binary checklist — four profitability tests (positive ROA, positive cash flow, improving ROA, cash flow exceeding net income), three leverage tests (declining debt ratio, improving current ratio, no share dilution), and two efficiency tests (improving gross margin, improving asset turnover). Each pass scores 1 point. EXCE scores 6/9, indicating moderate financial health — some areas of strength offset by weaknesses in others. The Beneish M-Score (1999) is an 8-variable model that detects earnings manipulation by comparing year-over-year changes in receivables, gross margins, asset quality, sales growth, depreciation, SG&A, leverage, and accruals. Scores above −1.78 statistically resemble past manipulators. EXCE's score of -3.78 falls below this threshold, suggesting earnings are unlikely to be manipulated. The Ohlson O-Score (1980) is a 9-variable logistic regression that estimates bankruptcy probability using firm size, leverage, working capital, current ratio, profitability (ROA), cash flow coverage, negative equity flag, consecutive losses flag, and earnings trajectory. The raw score is converted to a probability via logistic transformation. EXCE's implied 90.1% bankruptcy probability signals significant financial distress. Our Credit Rating model scores companies on five weighted components — solvency (30%), earning power (25%), leverage (20%), liquidity (15%), and cash flow quality (10%) — then blends the absolute score with sector and industry peer rankings. For companies with large buyback programs, equity is adjusted by adding back cumulative 5-year repurchases (capped at 80% of FCF generated) to avoid penalizing shareholder-friendly capital allocation. EXCE receives an estimated rating of CCC (score: 16.2/100), with a improving trend.

Valuation

Key valuation multiples comparing the stock's market price to its earnings, revenue, book value, and cash flows. Lower multiples may indicate relative undervaluation versus peers.

P/E
-3.01x
PEG
0.01x
P/S
1.39x
P/B
-0.54x
P/FCF
-0.54x
P/OCF
0.07x
EV/EBITDA
-6.14x
EV/Revenue
1.11x
EV/EBIT
-3.72x
EV/FCF
-25.40x
Earnings Yield
-1962.39%
FCF Yield
-184.44%
Shareholder Yield
0.00%
Graham Number
—
Equity-based multiples (P/E, P/B, P/FCF) compare the stock price to per-share fundamentals and are affected by capital structure. Enterprise value multiples (EV/EBITDA, EV/Revenue, EV/FCF) strip out debt and cash, making them more useful for cross-company comparisons regardless of how companies are financed. The Graham Number — √(22.5 × EPS × Book Value) — is Benjamin Graham's formula for the maximum price a defensive investor should pay. EXCE currently has negative earnings — the P/E ratio is not meaningful.

DuPont Decomposition (5-Factor)

The 5-factor DuPont framework breaks Return on Equity into its component drivers — tax efficiency, interest burden, operating profitability, asset utilization, and financial leverage — to reveal what truly drives shareholder returns.

Tax Burden
0.976
NI / EBT
×
Interest Burden
1.599
EBT / EBIT
×
EBIT Margin
-0.297
EBIT / Rev
×
Asset Turnover
0.421
Rev / Assets
×
Equity Multiplier
-1.000
Assets / Equity
=
ROE
19.5%
The 5-factor DuPont identity decomposes ROE as: Tax Burden × Interest Burden × EBIT Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier = ROE. This reveals whether returns are driven by operating performance, financial leverage, or tax efficiency — three very different sources of profitability. EXCE's ROE of 19.5% is driven by Asset Turnover (0.421), indicating efficient use of assets to generate revenue. A tax burden ratio of 0.98 indicates minimal tax leakage — the company retains over 90% of pre-tax earnings.

Graham-Dodd Adjusted Valuation

Our adaptation of Graham's growth formula (Fair P/E = 8.5 + 2g) from The Intelligent Investor. The classic version relies on analyst growth projections, which can be unreliable. This adjusted model substitutes the company's realized 3-year EPS CAGR — a backward-looking, verifiable measure of actual earnings power — grounding the valuation in demonstrated performance rather than forecasts.

Two adjustments we make, and why. Growth is capped at 15%. Graham defined g as expected growth over the next seven to ten years, not last year's rate. Across US companies since 1994 the median realized 7-year EPS growth is 5–8% regardless of how fast a company grew beforehand, and of 4,457 company-quarters that grew faster than 200%, none sustained it. Uncapped, the formula assigned fair multiples in the hundreds to companies that had never held that rate — and scored worse than simply reading the P/E. Capped, it carries real information. The verdict has three states, not two. Tested over 377,249 stock-months, this ratio only separates outcomes at its extremes: below 0.25 beat the universe by 1.3 points a year, above 3.0 lagged by 2.7, and everything in between sat inside a one-point band. Rather than call two-thirds of the market "undervalued" on a threshold of 1.0, we say Neutral where the model cannot tell — which is most of the time.

Adj. Growth Rate
0.00%
Fair P/E
8.50x
Intrinsic Value
—
Price/Value
—
Margin of Safety
—
Premium
—

Profitability Trends

Historical profitability ratios tracking how efficiently the company converts revenue into returns for shareholders over time.

Leverage & Solvency Trends

Debt and liquidity metrics showing the company's financial leverage and ability to meet short-term and long-term obligations.

Efficiency & Working Capital Trends

Operating efficiency metrics measuring how quickly the company converts inventory to sales, collects receivables, and manages its cash conversion cycle.

Growth Trends (YoY %)

Year-over-year growth rates for key financial metrics, showing the trajectory of revenue, earnings, and cash flow generation.

Earnings Stability

R-squared of linear regression measuring how predictably revenue, earnings, and margins follow a trend over the trailing 5 years. 1.0 = perfectly predictable; lower values indicate erratic or cyclical behavior.

Monte Carlo Price Simulation

Geometric Brownian Motion with 1,000 antithetic paths over 1 year, seeded from 1800 days of historical volatility. Percentile bands show the range of statistically plausible outcomes — this is a statistical model, not a forecast.

Current Price
$25.35
Median 1Y
$0.00
5th Pctile
$0.00
95th Pctile
$2.70
Ann. Volatility
429.2%
25th–75th percentile 5th–95th percentile Median path Historical
All Ratios & Metrics

Complete fundamental data with up to 20 periods of history, sparkline trends, and current values across 13 categories and 130+ financial metrics.

Profitability
Metric Trend Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16 Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Current
ROE -39.9% -57.6% -23.7% 36.7% -64.4% -9.3% 12.1% 15.7% 3.4% 1.2% 35.6% 29.4% 10.5% -17.8% -9.4% -2.8% 20.3% 34.4% 31.6% 19.5% 19.51%
ROA -6.6% -10.3% -3.2% 5.1% -8.7% -32.6% -57.0% -72.0% -69.6% -56.5% -26.2% -27.9% -11.7% 20.5% 9.9% 3.2% -22.9% -35.4% -30.4% -19.5% -19.51%
ROIC 1.2% 1.6% 1.8% 6.6% -11.6% -45.5% -93.7% -1.5% -1.8% -1.6% -80.6% -40.8% -11.4% 10.0% 6.8% -8.4% -11.3% -13.5% -17.8% -33.5% -33.52%
ROCE -1.9% -5.6% 0.9% 10.8% -5.3% -41.6% -95.7% -1.5% -1.6% -1.3% -39.4% -37.7% -2.7% 49.8% -24.2% -16.1% -22.1% -46.2% -46.2% -26.5% -26.53%
Gross Margin 74.3% 36.3% 25.3% 14.0% 47.3% -13.3% -13.0% -27.8% -35.0% -7.7% 18.3% 29.4% 40.2% 36.5% 30.5% 34.0% 60.2% 36.8% 38.2% 50.3% 50.28%
Operating Margin 28.9% 23.7% 15.1% 2.6% -3.6% -4.5% -4.4% -3.7% -3.2% -1.3% 5.4% 16.0% 17.8% 21.4% -7.7% -92.6% 1.6% 31.0% 31.6% 43.3% 43.26%
Net Margin -2.3% 1.3% 27.5% 63.7% -3.7% -4.8% -4.2% -1.0% -2.5% -2.1% 66.0% -44.0% 10.7% 1.7% -28.2% -1.2% -2.3% 7.9% 3.7% 15.8% 15.84%
EBITDA Margin 64.8% 52.2% 86.4% 1.3% -2.6% -3.9% -3.3% -1.7% -1.6% -1.3% 1.1% -6.6% 53.4% 2.2% 15.6% -58.2% -2.1% 38.8% 34.3% 42.0% 41.99%
FCF Margin -1.1% -1.2% 9.2% -6.1% -38.5% -46.8% -61.0% -58.2% -42.1% -37.9% -46.4% -30.9% -28.9% -28.7% -24.3% -41.2% -43.2% -35.5% -16.3% -4.4% -4.36%
OCF Margin 73.1% 61.5% 68.1% 54.8% 39.8% 44.1% 33.4% 40.8% 35.9% 28.2% 1.4% -0.2% -8.1% -4.2% 18.6% 19.2% 32.8% 27.8% 31.6% 34.0% 34.01%
ROA 3Y Avg snapshot only -16.28%
ROIC Economic snapshot only -35.84%
Cash ROA snapshot only 12.98%
NOPAT Margin snapshot only 51.02%
Pretax Margin snapshot only -47.51%
R&D / Revenue snapshot only 0.00%
SGA / Revenue snapshot only 7.07%
SBC / Revenue snapshot only 0.52%
Valuation
Metric Trend Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16 Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Current
P/E Ratio -10.19 -7.06 -10.87 4.87 -2.58 -0.49 -0.20 -0.29 -0.27 -0.55 -1.17 -1.09 -2.01 0.36 0.41 0.19 -0.05 -0.03 -0.03 -0.05 -3.011
P/S Ratio 2.06 2.17 1.27 0.89 0.91 0.70 0.52 1.05 0.94 1.43 1.21 0.93 0.61 0.17 0.11 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.02 1.389
P/B Ratio 3.54 3.99 2.13 1.15 2.56 -1.24 -0.34 -0.52 -0.35 -0.41 -0.36 -0.28 -0.20 -0.07 -0.04 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.536
P/FCF -1.82 -1.79 13.85 -14.53 -2.36 -1.49 -0.86 -1.80 -2.23 -3.77 -2.62 -3.03 -2.10 -0.60 -0.44 -0.04 -0.07 -0.08 -0.16 -0.54 -0.542
P/OCF 2.82 3.53 1.87 1.62 2.28 1.58 1.57 2.57 2.61 5.05 87.71 — — — 0.57 0.08 0.10 0.10 0.08 0.07 0.069
EV/EBITDA 9.07 9.74 6.99 3.81 11.86 -6.09 -2.46 -1.96 -2.21 -3.85 -22.72 -20.66 27.79 4.46 6.45 7.95 -6.76 -2.38 -2.66 -6.14 -6.142
EV/Revenue 4.08 4.19 3.38 3.01 3.58 3.94 4.42 5.19 5.45 6.53 6.47 5.89 4.65 4.07 4.45 4.68 1.40 1.32 1.17 1.11 1.107
EV/EBIT -74.73 -27.60 139.18 9.25 -21.52 -3.30 -1.84 -1.57 -1.76 -2.91 -9.17 -10.16 -111.69 5.49 7.65 9.99 -4.06 -1.97 -1.90 -3.72 -3.725
EV/FCF -3.61 -3.46 36.73 -49.13 -9.31 -8.41 -7.25 -8.91 -12.93 -17.25 -13.95 -19.10 -16.09 -14.18 -18.31 -11.37 -3.24 -3.71 -7.17 -25.40 -25.399
Earnings Yield -9.8% -14.2% -9.2% 20.5% -38.8% -2.0% -5.1% -3.5% -3.6% -1.8% -85.1% -92.0% -49.8% 2.8% 2.4% 5.4% -20.7% -33.1% -30.7% -19.6% -19.62%
FCF Yield -54.8% -55.8% 7.2% -6.9% -42.5% -67.0% -1.2% -55.5% -44.9% -26.5% -38.2% -33.0% -47.6% -1.7% -2.3% -25.7% -13.7% -12.4% -6.2% -1.8% -1.84%
PEG Ratio snapshot only 0.010
EV/OCF snapshot only 3.255
EV/Gross Profit snapshot only 2.397
Acquirers Multiple snapshot only 1.714
Shareholder Yield snapshot only 0.00%
Leverage & Solvency
Metric Trend Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16 Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Current
Current Ratio 0.75 0.65 0.67 0.91 0.81 0.77 0.72 0.59 0.63 0.33 0.46 0.43 0.51 0.44 0.12 0.10 0.36 0.34 0.34 0.29 0.288
Quick Ratio 0.73 0.62 0.65 0.89 0.78 0.74 0.69 0.56 0.60 0.31 0.43 0.40 0.48 0.40 0.11 0.09 0.34 0.32 0.33 0.26 0.261
Debt/Equity 3.70 3.81 3.63 2.84 7.67 -5.97 -2.57 -2.07 -1.74 -1.49 -1.56 -1.50 -1.38 -1.61 -1.78 -1.61 -0.45 -0.45 -0.45 -0.46 -0.461
Net Debt/Equity 3.47 3.70 3.52 2.75 7.54 — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — —
Debt/Assets 0.63 0.64 0.64 0.61 0.72 0.95 1.22 1.44 1.67 1.84 1.90 1.98 1.78 1.71 1.63 1.62 0.46 0.45 0.45 0.46 0.458
Debt/EBITDA 4.80 4.83 4.49 2.77 9.01 -5.18 -2.20 -1.57 -1.89 -3.08 -18.51 -17.51 24.83 4.30 6.70 8.16 -7.68 -2.64 -3.03 -6.67 -6.666
Net Debt/EBITDA 4.49 4.69 4.35 2.68 8.86 -5.01 -2.17 -1.56 -1.83 -3.01 -18.46 -17.39 24.16 4.27 6.30 7.92 -6.61 -2.33 -2.60 -6.01 -6.011
Interest Coverage -0.38 -0.99 0.18 2.33 -0.94 -5.67 -9.36 -10.70 -9.26 -6.33 -2.20 -2.16 -0.17 2.97 1.86 1.23 -1.05 -2.62 -3.71 -3.45 -3.452
Equity Multiplier 5.88 5.94 5.63 4.62 10.63 -6.30 -2.11 -1.44 -1.04 -0.81 -0.82 -0.76 -0.77 -0.94 -1.09 -0.99 -0.98 -0.99 -1.00 -1.01 -1.006
Cash Ratio snapshot only 0.079
Debt Service Coverage snapshot only -2.094
Cash to Debt snapshot only 0.098
FCF to Debt snapshot only -0.036
Defensive Interval snapshot only 1114.1 days
Efficiency & Turnover
Metric Trend Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16 Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Current
Asset Turnover 0.33 0.34 0.27 0.28 0.25 0.23 0.21 0.20 0.20 0.22 0.25 0.32 0.38 0.43 0.39 0.38 0.35 0.37 0.38 0.42 0.421
Inventory Turnover 66.46 50.77 80.10 76.23 47.17 37.62 50.04 41.72 41.73 40.46 35.88 29.73 28.88 24.65 16.39 14.98 20.42 18.32 17.84 13.06 13.062
Receivables Turnover 5.08 8.04 6.99 4.86 6.23 5.45 6.19 4.97 12.63 7.23 4.31 3.80 10.52 7.30 4.30 3.44 3.64 3.93 4.35 4.37 4.371
Payables Turnover 4.42 4.53 2.61 3.56 3.14 3.73 3.23 3.32 3.57 3.27 3.50 3.46 3.66 2.73 3.40 2.97 3.54 3.44 3.58 3.18 3.184
DSO 72 45 52 75 59 67 59 73 29 50 85 96 35 50 85 106 100 93 84 84 83.5 days
DIO 5 7 5 5 8 10 7 9 9 9 10 12 13 15 22 24 18 20 20 28 27.9 days
DPO 83 81 140 103 116 98 113 110 102 111 104 106 100 133 107 123 103 106 102 115 114.6 days
Cash Conversion Cycle -5 -28 -83 -23 -50 -21 -47 -28 -65 -52 -9 3 -52 -69 -0 8 15 7 2 -3 -3.2 days
Fixed Asset Turnover snapshot only 0.567
Operating Cycle snapshot only 111.5 days
Cash Velocity snapshot only 8.466
Capital Intensity snapshot only 2.621
Growth (YoY)
Metric Trend Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16 Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Current
Revenue 26.3% 24.9% 17.6% 4.1% -21.1% -36.9% -45.1% -50.3% -46.4% -44.6% -36.7% -20.2% -2.3% 19.5% 18.3% 8.3% 3.7% 6.9% 21.6% 38.9% 38.91%
Net Income 85.3% 39.7% 32.6% 4.4% -37.2% -1.9% -11.5% -10.9% -4.2% -1.9% 75.5% 81.1% 91.3% 1.2% 1.3% 1.1% -1.2% -3.1% -4.8% -8.5% -8.50%
EPS 87.7% 52.0% 46.1% 3.3% -31.8% -1.9% -11.4% -10.6% -4.1% 0.8% 76.2% 81.3% 91.4% 1.2% 1.2% 1.1% -91.9% -3.0% -5.1% -8.5% -8.48%
FCF -12.3% -77.1% 1.1% 95.7% 73.1% 75.6% -4.6% -3.7% 41.4% 55.2% 51.8% 57.7% 32.9% 9.4% 38.0% -44.4% -55.1% -32.2% 18.6% 85.3% 85.29%
EBITDA 1.5% 3.3% 58.0% 29.3% -47.1% -1.9% -3.0% -2.7% -5.4% -45.0% 89.9% 91.4% 1.1% 1.6% 3.9% 3.2% -2.3% -1.6% -1.8% -1.4% -1.43%
Op. Income 1.0% 1.1% 1.9% -29.2% -9.9% -20.2% -25.8% -11.6% -3.9% -18.8% 56.7% 83.5% 96.4% 1.1% 1.1% 81.6% 3.2% 1.4% 3.0% 7.3% 7.27%
OCF Growth snapshot only 1.46%
Asset Growth snapshot only 22.89%
Debt Growth snapshot only -65.26%
Shares Change snapshot only 0.26%
Dividend Growth snapshot only -1.00%
Growth (CAGR)
Metric Trend Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16 Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Current
Revenue 3Y 8.4% 4.7% 0.1% -4.3% -9.0% -10.4% -11.9% -15.6% -18.9% -24.1% -25.8% -25.5% -25.5% -25.3% -25.6% -24.5% -18.4% -10.9% -3.1% 6.3% 6.27%
Revenue 5Y -12.4% -7.1% -1.1% 2.4% 0.8% -1.2% -4.3% -8.6% -11.6% -16.7% -19.0% -19.1% -17.0% -13.8% -12.6% -12.3% -11.6% -11.0% -10.1% -9.1% -9.08%
EPS 3Y — — — 62.2% — — — — — — — — — — — -44.7% — — — — —
EPS 5Y — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — —
Net Income 3Y — — — 74.8% — — — — — — — — — — — -41.3% — — — — —
Net Income 5Y — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — —
EBITDA 3Y -28.5% -8.5% -10.6% 5.4% -0.2% — — — — — — — -46.4% -4.0% -16.3% -31.6% — — — — —
EBITDA 5Y — — — — -30.2% — — — — — — — -22.0% — — — — — — — —
Gross Profit 3Y -7.6% -13.4% -17.2% -21.5% -31.9% -41.6% -53.8% — — — — -58.1% -40.2% -32.2% -30.5% -28.0% -8.7% 16.8% 62.4% — —
Gross Profit 5Y -21.5% -16.2% -8.7% -5.3% -13.3% -23.0% -36.0% — — — — -51.5% -34.2% -26.0% -22.5% -18.7% -13.6% -12.1% -5.8% -2.3% -2.32%
Op. Income 3Y -63.2% 12.8% 27.8% — — — — — — — — — — 7.2% -6.4% — — — — — —
Op. Income 5Y — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — 7.3% 7.26%
FCF 3Y — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — —
FCF 5Y — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — —
OCF 3Y 15.7% 5.0% 5.0% -5.5% -23.9% -25.1% -35.6% -36.1% -36.5% -43.9% -78.0% — — — -51.8% -46.8% -23.6% -23.6% -4.8% -0.0% -0.01%
OCF 5Y -10.4% -8.3% -1.1% -3.5% -12.3% -12.2% -18.3% -17.0% -20.3% -28.6% -61.8% — — — -35.5% -36.2% -25.1% -25.9% -19.0% -17.5% -17.50%
Assets 3Y -10.2% -13.6% -14.7% -14.7% -16.1% -18.0% -21.2% -25.7% -24.3% -28.6% -37.6% -35.0% -34.5% -33.4% -29.8% -29.1% -20.7% -13.7% -6.3% 2.7% 2.67%
Assets 5Y -8.3% -8.5% -1.8% -0.0% -3.5% -10.0% -15.3% -22.8% -24.2% -27.7% -29.2% -29.5% -28.2% -25.0% -20.4% -18.4% -11.4% -12.0% -18.0% -15.6% -15.58%
Equity 3Y -36.3% -37.8% -37.2% -31.1% -46.5% — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — —
Book Value 3Y -39.8% -42.0% -41.6% -36.0% -50.4% — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — —
Dividend 3Y 2.1% 0.8% 0.5% -8.8% -21.8% -38.8% -80.0% -85.4% -83.8% -79.8% -46.6% -24.7% -17.3% -17.8% -11.5% -61.9% -62.1% -61.9% -61.8% — —
Growth Quality
Metric Trend Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16 Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Current
Revenue Stability 0.54 0.50 0.20 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.06 0.22 0.49 0.69 0.82 0.85 0.68 0.59 0.60 0.73 0.71 0.60 0.45 0.452
Earnings Stability 0.08 0.05 0.05 0.00 0.41 0.50 0.38 0.25 0.39 0.21 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.30 0.26 0.16 0.15 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.001
Margin Stability 0.76 0.75 0.70 0.69 0.68 0.58 0.45 0.34 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.15 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.16 0.161
Rev. Growth Consistency 0.50 0.50 1.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000
Earn. Growth Consistency 0.50 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 1.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000
FCF Positive Streak 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Earnings Persistence 0.50 0.84 0.87 0.50 0.85 0.50 0.50 0.20 0.50 0.99 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.50 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.200
Earnings Smoothness — — — 0.00 — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — —
ROE Trend 1.35 0.48 1.55 4.82 0.77 — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — —
Gross Margin Trend -0.16 -0.14 -0.06 -0.01 -0.15 -0.24 -0.29 -0.37 -0.57 -0.50 -0.36 -0.15 0.17 0.32 0.35 0.33 0.41 0.36 0.31 0.26 0.256
FCF Margin Trend -0.59 -0.93 1.06 0.71 0.23 0.13 0.16 0.19 0.34 0.46 -0.20 0.01 0.11 0.14 0.29 0.03 -0.08 -0.02 0.19 0.32 0.317
Sustainable Growth Rate — — — 24.2% — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — —
Internal Growth Rate — — — 3.5% — — — — — — — — — 25.8% 11.0% 3.4% — — — — —
Cash Flow Quality
Metric Trend Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16 Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Current
OCF/Net Income -3.61 -2.00 -5.81 3.00 -1.13 -0.31 -0.12 -0.11 -0.11 -0.11 -0.01 0.00 0.27 -0.09 0.72 2.23 -0.50 -0.29 -0.40 -0.73 -0.733
FCF/OCF -1.55 -1.97 0.14 -0.11 -0.97 -1.06 -1.83 -1.43 -1.17 -1.34 -33.49 195.26 3.58 6.84 -1.31 -2.15 -1.32 -1.28 -0.51 -0.13 -0.128
FCF/Net Income snapshot only 0.094
CapEx/Revenue 1.9% 1.8% 58.9% 61.0% 78.3% 90.9% 94.3% 99.0% 78.0% 66.1% 47.8% 30.7% 20.8% 24.5% 42.9% 60.3% 76.0% 63.3% 47.9% 38.4% 38.36%
CapEx/Depreciation snapshot only 1.883
Accruals Ratio -0.30 -0.31 -0.22 -0.10 -0.18 -0.43 -0.64 -0.80 -0.77 -0.63 -0.27 -0.28 -0.09 0.22 0.03 -0.04 -0.34 -0.46 -0.42 -0.34 -0.338
Sloan Accruals snapshot only 1.065
Cash Flow Adequacy snapshot only 0.886
Dividends & Buybacks
Metric Trend Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16 Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Current
Dividend Yield 3.2% 3.1% 5.7% 7.0% 5.5% 4.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.00%
Dividend/Share $2.65 $2.70 $2.84 $2.27 $1.52 $0.77 $0.03 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Payout Ratio — — — 34.0% — — — — — — — — — 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% — — — — —
FCF Payout Ratio — — 78.6% — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — —
Total Payout Ratio — — — 34.0% — — — — — — — — — 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% — — — — —
Div. Increase Streak 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 — —
Chowder Number 0.29 0.29 0.32 0.02 -0.35 -0.67 -0.99 -1.00 -0.99 -0.99 -0.80 -0.44 -0.39 -0.39 -0.10 -0.93 -0.93 -0.93 -0.93 — —
Buyback Yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.00%
Net Buyback Yield -19.1% -17.3% -29.9% -46.2% -0.1% -0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.00%
Total Shareholder Return -15.9% -14.2% -24.2% -39.2% 5.5% 4.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.00%
DuPont Factors
Metric Trend Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16 Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Current
Tax Burden (NI/EBT) 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.01 1.01 1.05 0.97 0.96 0.99 0.97 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.976
Interest Burden (EBT/EBIT) 3.70 2.03 -4.83 0.56 2.11 1.18 1.11 1.10 1.11 1.16 1.45 1.46 6.95 0.66 0.46 0.19 1.95 1.45 1.34 1.60 1.599
EBIT Margin -0.05 -0.15 0.02 0.33 -0.17 -1.19 -2.40 -3.31 -3.09 -2.25 -0.71 -0.58 -0.04 0.74 0.58 0.47 -0.35 -0.67 -0.61 -0.30 -0.297
Asset Turnover 0.33 0.34 0.27 0.28 0.25 0.23 0.21 0.20 0.20 0.22 0.25 0.32 0.38 0.43 0.39 0.38 0.35 0.37 0.38 0.42 0.421
Equity Multiplier 6.06 5.58 7.40 7.24 7.42 28.59 -21.16 -21.74 -4.86 -2.04 -1.36 -1.05 -0.90 -0.87 -0.95 -0.87 -0.89 -0.97 -1.04 -1.00 -1.000
Per Share
Metric Trend Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16 Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Current
EPS (Diluted TTM) $-8.08 $-12.38 $-4.61 $6.68 $-10.65 $-35.87 $-57.36 $-64.34 $-54.13 $-35.58 $-13.66 $-12.06 $-4.64 $7.30 $3.23 $1.13 $-8.90 $-14.24 $-13.20 $-8.44 $-8.44
Book Value/Share $23.29 $21.93 $23.54 $28.22 $10.74 $-14.22 $-32.95 $-35.74 $-42.46 $-47.87 $-44.67 $-46.69 $-46.16 $-37.27 $-32.61 $-39.18 $-48.24 $-48.50 $-48.30 $-47.41 $-47.33
Tangible Book/Share $13.91 $12.91 $14.55 $19.19 $1.73 $-23.23 $-41.90 $-44.54 $-51.26 $-56.64 $-53.38 $-55.43 $-54.86 $-45.47 $-39.60 $-46.74 $-55.69 $-56.05 $-55.85 $-54.95 $-54.95
Revenue/Share $39.96 $40.22 $39.31 $36.54 $30.28 $25.35 $21.48 $17.72 $15.82 $13.67 $13.22 $14.03 $15.30 $15.27 $12.57 $13.13 $13.59 $15.02 $16.49 $18.20 $18.17
FCF/Share $-45.17 $-48.76 $3.62 $-2.24 $-11.65 $-11.87 $-13.09 $-10.32 $-6.67 $-5.17 $-6.13 $-4.33 $-4.43 $-4.38 $-3.05 $-5.41 $-5.88 $-5.33 $-2.68 $-0.79 $-0.79
OCF/Share $29.21 $24.75 $26.77 $20.04 $12.06 $11.17 $7.17 $7.23 $5.68 $3.86 $0.18 $-0.02 $-1.24 $-0.64 $2.33 $2.52 $4.45 $4.18 $5.22 $6.19 $6.18
Cash/Share $5.44 $2.54 $2.64 $2.56 $1.42 $2.76 $1.13 $0.66 $2.49 $1.48 $0.19 $0.49 $1.71 $0.47 $3.54 $1.83 $3.01 $2.54 $3.10 $2.15 $2.15
EBITDA/Share $17.99 $17.29 $19.02 $28.90 $9.15 $-16.40 $-38.53 $-46.99 $-39.05 $-23.15 $-3.76 $-4.00 $2.56 $13.93 $8.67 $7.74 $-2.82 $-8.31 $-7.23 $-3.28 $-3.28
Debt/Share $86.30 $83.60 $85.43 $80.05 $82.42 $84.91 $84.79 $73.94 $73.83 $71.22 $69.66 $70.07 $63.62 $59.94 $58.12 $63.09 $21.61 $21.90 $21.90 $21.86 $21.86
Net Debt/Share $80.86 $81.06 $82.78 $77.49 $81.00 $82.16 $83.66 $73.28 $71.34 $69.74 $69.47 $69.58 $61.91 $59.47 $54.59 $61.26 $18.61 $19.36 $18.80 $19.71 $19.71
Academic Models
Metric Trend Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16 Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Current
Altman Z-Score — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — -6.662
Altman Z-Prime snapshot only -17.830
Piotroski F-Score 6 5 7 7 3 3 3 2 2 3 4 3 4 6 6 6 4 4 7 6 6
Beneish M-Score -4.08 -3.35 -4.11 -3.18 -3.85 -7.47 -8.59 -9.87 -11.32 -7.75 -5.01 -4.86 0.90 -0.86 -2.71 -2.83 -3.37 -3.04 -3.88 -3.78 -3.778
Ohlson O-Score snapshot only 2.204
Net-Net WC snapshot only $-87.25
Credit
Metric Trend Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16 Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Current
Credit Rating snapshot only CCC
Credit Score 8.93 9.01 11.72 25.16 6.16 16.33 16.49 15.93 16.05 14.67 14.83 13.23 6.18 17.85 14.67 10.40 16.19 15.56 15.64 16.20 16.204
Credit Grade snapshot only 17
Credit Trend snapshot only 5.808
Implied Spread (bps) snapshot only 1200.000
Industry Credit Rank snapshot only 6
Sector Credit Rank snapshot only 7

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