FOUR NYSE
Shift4 Payments, Inc.
1W: -7.0%
1M: -3.9%
3M: -32.6%
YTD: -41.0%
1Y: -51.4%
3Y: -29.3%
5Y: -50.8%
$37.72
+0.73 (+1.97%)
After Hours: $37.40 (-0.32, -0.85%)
Weekly Expected Move ±5.1%
$35
$37
$39
$41
$43
Credit Risk of going bust: higher than 84% of companies Debt: 54.3% of company value Bonds: $369.6M held by 296 funds, 220 bp over Treasuries → details ▾
Of US companies ranked in the second-riskiest tenth, about 1 in 87 filed for bankruptcy within a year (2020-2025).
If the stock fell to about $4.03 (down 89%), Shift4 Payments, Inc. would be worth roughly what it owes.
Total debt $4.57B against a stock market value of $3.84B.
Distance to default 2.21 (Merton model): prices to 2026-10-26, balance sheet 2026-06-30, debt counted $2.26B (short-term plus half of long-term), stock volatility 65.6%; Altman Z'' 0.57. A ranking and a back-test, not a forecast.
Bond figures are fund-reported marks (SEC N-PORT) as of Jul 2026. How these are computed.
If the stock fell to about $4.03 (down 89%), Shift4 Payments, Inc. would be worth roughly what it owes.
Total debt $4.57B against a stock market value of $3.84B.
Distance to default 2.21 (Merton model): prices to 2026-10-26, balance sheet 2026-06-30, debt counted $2.26B (short-term plus half of long-term), stock volatility 65.6%; Altman Z'' 0.57. A ranking and a back-test, not a forecast.
Bond figures are fund-reported marks (SEC N-PORT) as of Jul 2026. How these are computed.
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Institutions
ETF Exposure
Dark Pool
Short Interest
Supply Chain
Oct Typical
⛈️
Stormy
-7.3% YTD avg
Midterm Year
⛈️
Stormy
-27.9% YTD avg
2026 Now
⛈️
Stormy
Below typical
20yr Avg YTD
-7.3%
Day 206 of 252
Midterm Year YTD
-27.9%
Presidential cycle avg
2026 YTD
-39.7%
Below 20yr avg
Typical Vol
49%
Annualized
Monthly Weather Forecast
Jan
20yr
🌫️
+6.4%
Midterm
⛈️
-11.5%
33% win
50% vol
Feb
20yr
⛈️
+5.0%
Midterm
⛈️
-18.1%
50% win
70% vol
Mar
20yr
💨
+14.9%
Midterm
⛅
+3.8%
50% win
73% vol
Apr
20yr
⛈️
+9.8%
Midterm
⛈️
-8.3%
50% win
59% vol
May
20yr
💨
+9.3%
Midterm
⛈️
-25.3%
50% win
61% vol
Jun
20yr
💨
+14.7%
Midterm
⛈️
-41.5%
86% win
61% vol
Jul
20yr
💨
+20.2%
Midterm
⛈️
-35.4%
71% win
49% vol
Aug
20yr
💨
-0.5%
Midterm
⛈️
-24.1%
43% win
60% vol
Sep
20yr
⛈️
-3.9%
Midterm
⛈️
-25.2%
14% win
44% vol
Oct
20yr
⛈️
-12.5%
Midterm
⛈️
-23.0%
57% win
49% vol
Now:
+4.5%
Nov
20yr
💨
-0.4%
Midterm
⛈️
-22.4%
83% win
70% vol
Dec
20yr
💨
+7.3%
Midterm
💨
+20.7%
67% win
50% vol
Seasonality (20yr)
Updated: 2026-10-27
YTD: -39.7%