FPH NYSE
Five Point Holdings, LLC
1W: -7.9%
1M: -14.3%
3M: -23.6%
YTD: -24.8%
1Y: -33.5%
3Y: +64.3%
5Y: -47.2%
$4.08
-0.08 (-1.92%)
Weekly Expected Move ±6.4%
$4
$4
$4
$4
$5
Credit Risk of going bust: higher than 51% of companies Debt: 60.7% of company value Bonds: $64.3M held by 127 funds, 288 bp over Treasuries → details ▾
Of US companies ranked in the middle of the pack, about 1 in 580 filed for bankruptcy within a year (2020-2025).
If the stock fell to about $0.28 (down 93%), Five Point Holdings, LLC would be worth roughly what it owes.
Total debt $452.3M against a stock market value of $292.9M.
Distance to default 5.05 (Merton model): prices to 2026-10-27, balance sheet 2026-09-30, debt counted $222.2M (short-term plus half of long-term), stock volatility 29.1%; Altman Z'' 7.23. A ranking and a back-test, not a forecast.
Bond figures are fund-reported marks (SEC N-PORT) as of Jul 2026. How these are computed.
If the stock fell to about $0.28 (down 93%), Five Point Holdings, LLC would be worth roughly what it owes.
Total debt $452.3M against a stock market value of $292.9M.
Distance to default 5.05 (Merton model): prices to 2026-10-27, balance sheet 2026-09-30, debt counted $222.2M (short-term plus half of long-term), stock volatility 29.1%; Altman Z'' 7.23. A ranking and a back-test, not a forecast.
Bond figures are fund-reported marks (SEC N-PORT) as of Jul 2026. How these are computed.
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Institutions
ETF Exposure
Dark Pool
Short Interest
Supply Chain
Oct Typical
🌧️
Rainy
-3.2% YTD avg
Midterm Year
⛈️
Stormy
-55.8% YTD avg
2026 Now
⛈️
Stormy
Below typical
20yr Avg YTD
-3.2%
Day 206 of 252
Midterm Year YTD
-55.8%
Presidential cycle avg
2026 YTD
-24.8%
Below 20yr avg
Typical Vol
39%
Annualized
Monthly Weather Forecast
Jan
20yr
💨
+14.4%
Midterm
⛈️
-7.6%
67% win
68% vol
Feb
20yr
⛈️
+8.9%
Midterm
⛈️
-6.4%
44% win
39% vol
Mar
20yr
⛈️
+7.1%
Midterm
🌧️
-3.3%
44% win
72% vol
Apr
20yr
💨
+5.9%
Midterm
⛈️
-7.1%
44% win
45% vol
May
20yr
⛈️
+4.9%
Midterm
⛈️
-23.7%
50% win
44% vol
Jun
20yr
⛈️
+3.5%
Midterm
⛈️
-30.0%
50% win
40% vol
Jul
20yr
💨
+8.7%
Midterm
⛈️
-30.4%
70% win
40% vol
Aug
20yr
🌧️
+5.6%
Midterm
⛈️
-33.3%
20% win
32% vol
Sep
20yr
⛈️
+5.6%
Midterm
⛈️
-46.9%
30% win
36% vol
Oct
20yr
⛈️
-3.3%
Midterm
⛈️
-55.5%
10% win
39% vol
Now:
-12.6%
Nov
20yr
💨
-3.4%
Midterm
⛈️
-55.8%
78% win
54% vol
Dec
20yr
💨
+2.2%
Midterm
⛈️
-0.8%
44% win
42% vol
Seasonality (20yr)
Updated: 2026-10-27
YTD: -24.8%