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GPGI NYSE

GPGI, Inc.
1W: -3.8% 1M: -26.2% 3M: -47.8% YTD: -36.0%
$12.42
+0.46 (+3.85%)
 
Weekly Expected Move ±15.5%
$8 $10 $12 $14 $16
NYSE · Industrials · Manufacturing - Metal Fabrication · Alpha Radar Strong Sell · Power 31 · $3.6B mcap · 99M float · 4.59% daily turnover · Short 82% of daily vol

Edge Score

Quantitative competitive moat analysis scoring five pillars of durable advantage — cost leadership, brand intangibles, switching costs, network effects, and efficient scale — using industry percentile rankings on a 0–100 scale.

NARROW EDGE
55.6 / 100
NoneWeakNarrowWide
Primary source: Efficient Scale  ·  ROIC: -34.2%
Cost Advantage
53
Intangibles
51
Switching Cost
60
Network Effect
40
Scale ★
75
The Edge Score quantifies a company's competitive moat using five pillars: Cost Advantage (20%, operating margin and SG&A efficiency vs industry peers), Intangible Assets (25%, gross margin premium, R&D intensity, brand pricing power), Switching Costs (25%, revenue stability, earnings consistency, customer retention proxied by operating leverage), Network Effects (15%, revenue growth with expanding margins, market share dominance), and Efficient Scale (15%, market concentration, ROIC sustainability). Each pillar is scored 0–100 using industry percentile rankings, then weighted into a composite. Wide ≥ 70, Narrow ≥ 55, Weak ≥ 40, None < 40. GPGI has a Narrow competitive edge (55.6/100) — meaningful but not impregnable advantages over competitors. The primary source of advantage is Efficient Scale. Negative ROIC of -34.2% indicates the company is currently destroying value, though this may reflect a growth investment phase.

Analyst Insights

Wall Street analyst consensus based on price targets and buy/sell/hold recommendations from institutional research coverage over the trailing 12 months.

Analyst Price Targets
Analyst Recommendations
Strong Buy: 0Buy: 5Hold: 1Sell: 0Strong Sell: 0
Rating Summary
ConsensusBuy
Avg Target$—
Analysts0
Consensus Change History
DateFieldFromTo
2026-01-25 _new_coverage None ADDED

Financial Rating

Composite financial health rating (A+ to F) based on discounted cash flow valuation, return on equity, return on assets, debt-to-equity leverage, and relative P/E and P/B multiples.

C+
May 22, 2026
DCF
3
ROE
1
ROA
1
D/E
1
P/E
1
P/B
5
The Financial Rating evaluates six fundamental factors — discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation, return on equity (ROE), return on assets (ROA), debt-to-equity leverage (D/E), and relative price-to-earnings (P/E) and price-to-book (P/B) multiples — each scored 1–5. GPGI receives an overall rating of C+. Strongest factors: P/B (5/5). Areas of concern: ROE (1/5), ROA (1/5), D/E (1/5), P/E (1/5).
Rating Change History
DateFromTo
2026-05-20 C C+
2026-05-18 C+ C
2026-05-14 C C+
2026-05-13 C- C
2026-05-12 C C-
2026-05-08 D+ C
2026-03-13 C D+
2026-01-26 None ADDED

InsiderStreet Scorecard

Proprietary multi-factor scorecard rating companies across seven fundamental dimensions — profitability, balance sheet strength, earnings quality, growth, value, momentum, and safety — each scored 0–100.

Grade A+
Profitability
Balance Sheet
83
Earnings Quality
30
Growth
Value
40
Momentum
Safety
100
Cash Flow

Risk & Quality Signals

Academic financial models used by institutional investors to assess bankruptcy risk, earnings manipulation, financial strength, and credit quality.

Altman Z-Score
9.50
Safe Zone
Piotroski F-Score
2/9
Beneish M-Score
Ohlson O-Score
-4.61
Bankruptcy prob: 1.0%
Low Risk
Credit Rating
AA
Score: 89.0/100
Earnings Quality
OCF/NI: 0.22x
Accruals: -35.3%
The Altman Z-Score (1968) combines five ratios — working capital, retained earnings, EBIT, market value of equity, and sales, all relative to total assets or liabilities — into a single bankruptcy predictor. GPGI scores 9.50, placing it in the Safe Zone (safe > 2.99, distress < 1.81). Bankruptcy is statistically unlikely within the next two years. The Piotroski F-Score (2000) is a 9-point binary checklist — four profitability tests (positive ROA, positive cash flow, improving ROA, cash flow exceeding net income), three leverage tests (declining debt ratio, improving current ratio, no share dilution), and two efficiency tests (improving gross margin, improving asset turnover). Each pass scores 1 point. GPGI scores 2/9, suggesting weak financial fundamentals — the company fails the majority of these accounting tests. The Ohlson O-Score (1980) is a 9-variable logistic regression that estimates bankruptcy probability using firm size, leverage, working capital, current ratio, profitability (ROA), cash flow coverage, negative equity flag, consecutive losses flag, and earnings trajectory. The raw score is converted to a probability via logistic transformation. GPGI's implied 1.0% bankruptcy probability is well within safe territory. Our Credit Rating model scores companies on five weighted components — solvency (30%), earning power (25%), leverage (20%), liquidity (15%), and cash flow quality (10%) — then blends the absolute score with sector and industry peer rankings. For companies with large buyback programs, equity is adjusted by adding back cumulative 5-year repurchases (capped at 80% of FCF generated) to avoid penalizing shareholder-friendly capital allocation. GPGI receives an estimated rating of AA (score: 89.0/100).

Valuation

Key valuation multiples comparing the stock's market price to its earnings, revenue, book value, and cash flows. Lower multiples may indicate relative undervaluation versus peers.

P/E
-3.98x
PEG
0.03x
P/S
0.00x
P/B
0.50x
P/FCF
-94.17x
P/OCF
EV/EBITDA
-87.02x
EV/Revenue
EV/EBIT
-87.02x
EV/FCF
-91.99x
Earnings Yield
-4.74%
FCF Yield
-1.06%
Shareholder Yield
0.01%
Graham Number
Equity-based multiples (P/E, P/B, P/FCF) compare the stock price to per-share fundamentals and are affected by capital structure. Enterprise value multiples (EV/EBITDA, EV/Revenue, EV/FCF) strip out debt and cash, making them more useful for cross-company comparisons regardless of how companies are financed. The Graham Number — √(22.5 × EPS × Book Value) — is Benjamin Graham's formula for the maximum price a defensive investor should pay. GPGI currently has negative earnings — the P/E ratio is not meaningful.

DuPont Decomposition (5-Factor)

The 5-factor DuPont framework breaks Return on Equity into its component drivers — tax efficiency, interest burden, operating profitability, asset utilization, and financial leverage — to reveal what truly drives shareholder returns.

Tax Burden
1.016
NI / EBT
×
Interest Burden
4.162
EBT / EBIT
×
EBIT Margin
EBIT / Rev
×
Asset Turnover
0.000
Rev / Assets
×
Equity Multiplier
2.127
Assets / Equity
=
ROE
-96.7%
The 5-factor DuPont identity decomposes ROE as: Tax Burden × Interest Burden × EBIT Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier = ROE. This reveals whether returns are driven by operating performance, financial leverage, or tax efficiency — three very different sources of profitability. GPGI's ROE of -96.7% is driven by A tax burden ratio of 1.02 indicates minimal tax leakage — the company retains over 90% of pre-tax earnings.

Graham-Dodd Adjusted Valuation

Our adaptation of Graham's growth formula (Fair P/E = 8.5 + 2g) from The Intelligent Investor. The classic version relies on analyst growth projections, which can be unreliable. This adjusted model substitutes the company's realized 3-year EPS CAGR — a backward-looking, verifiable measure of actual earnings power — grounding the valuation in demonstrated performance rather than forecasts.

Adj. Growth Rate
0.00%
Fair P/E
8.50x
Intrinsic Value
Price/Value
Margin of Safety
Premium
Assessment
Overvalued

Profitability Trends

Historical profitability ratios tracking how efficiently the company converts revenue into returns for shareholders over time.

Leverage & Solvency Trends

Debt and liquidity metrics showing the company's financial leverage and ability to meet short-term and long-term obligations.

Efficiency & Working Capital Trends

Operating efficiency metrics measuring how quickly the company converts inventory to sales, collects receivables, and manages its cash conversion cycle.

Growth Trends (YoY %)

Year-over-year growth rates for key financial metrics, showing the trajectory of revenue, earnings, and cash flow generation.

Earnings Stability

R-squared of linear regression measuring how predictably revenue, earnings, and margins follow a trend over the trailing 5 years. 1.0 = perfectly predictable; lower values indicate erratic or cyclical behavior.

Monte Carlo Price Simulation

Geometric Brownian Motion with 1,000 antithetic paths over 1 year, seeded from 98 days of historical volatility. Percentile bands show the range of statistically plausible outcomes — this is a statistical model, not a forecast.

Current Price
$12.43
Median 1Y
$3.16
5th Pctile
$0.87
95th Pctile
$11.45
Ann. Volatility
79.1%
25th–75th percentile 5th–95th percentile Median path Historical
All Ratios & Metrics

Complete fundamental data with up to 20 periods of history, sparkline trends, and current values across 13 categories and 130+ financial metrics.

Profitability
Metric Trend Q1'26 Current
ROE -96.7% -96.65%
ROA -45.4% -45.43%
ROIC -34.2% -34.18%
ROCE -11.2% -11.16%
Gross Margin
Operating Margin
Net Margin
EBITDA Margin
FCF Margin
OCF Margin
ROIC Economic snapshot only -18.07%
Cash ROA snapshot only -10.17%
Cash ROIC snapshot only -40.93%
CROIC snapshot only -40.93%
Valuation
Metric Trend Q1'26 Current
P/E Ratio -21.08 -3.981
P/S Ratio 0.000
P/B Ratio 20.37 0.501
P/FCF -94.17 -94.167
P/OCF
EV/EBITDA -87.02 -87.024
EV/Revenue
EV/EBIT -87.02 -87.024
EV/FCF -91.99 -91.987
Earnings Yield -4.7% -4.74%
FCF Yield -1.1% -1.06%
PEG Ratio snapshot only 0.034
Price/Tangible Book snapshot only 20.372
Shareholder Yield snapshot only 0.01%
Leverage & Solvency
Metric Trend Q1'26 Current
Current Ratio 6.33 6.332
Quick Ratio 6.33 6.332
Debt/Equity 0.00 0.000
Net Debt/Equity -0.47 -0.472
Debt/Assets 0.00 0.000
Debt/EBITDA -0.00 -0.000
Net Debt/EBITDA 2.06 2.062
Interest Coverage
Equity Multiplier 2.13 2.127
Cash Ratio snapshot only 6.045
Defensive Interval snapshot only 752.6 days
Efficiency & Turnover
Metric Trend Q1'26 Current
Asset Turnover 0.00 0.000
Inventory Turnover
Receivables Turnover
Payables Turnover 0.00
DSO
DIO
DPO
Cash Conversion Cycle
Cash Velocity snapshot only 0.000
Growth Quality
Metric Trend Q1'26 Current
Revenue Stability
Earnings Stability
Margin Stability
Rev. Growth Consistency 0.00 0.000
Earn. Growth Consistency 0.00 0.000
FCF Positive Streak 0 0
Earnings Persistence
Earnings Smoothness
ROE Trend
Gross Margin Trend
FCF Margin Trend
Sustainable Growth Rate
Internal Growth Rate
Cash Flow Quality
Metric Trend Q1'26 Current
OCF/Net Income 0.22 0.224
FCF/OCF 1.00 1.000
FCF/Net Income snapshot only 0.224
CapEx/Revenue
Accruals Ratio -0.35 -0.353
Sloan Accruals snapshot only -0.026
Cash Flow Adequacy snapshot only -75.143
Dividends & Buybacks
Metric Trend Q1'26 Current
Dividend Yield 0.0% 0.05%
Dividend/Share $0.00 $0.01
Payout Ratio
FCF Payout Ratio
Total Payout Ratio
Div. Increase Streak 0 0
Chowder Number
Buyback Yield 0.0% 0.00%
Net Buyback Yield -39.6% -39.61%
Total Shareholder Return -39.6% -39.60%
DuPont Factors
Metric Trend Q1'26 Current
Tax Burden (NI/EBT) 1.02 1.016
Interest Burden (EBT/EBIT) 4.16 4.162
EBIT Margin
Asset Turnover 0.00 0.000
Equity Multiplier 2.13 2.127
Per Share
Metric Trend Q1'26 Current
EPS (Diluted TTM) $-0.81 $-0.81
Book Value/Share $0.84 $24.54
Tangible Book/Share $0.84 $0.84
Revenue/Share $0.00 $0.00
FCF/Share $-0.18 $-0.62
OCF/Share $-0.18 $-0.62
Cash/Share $0.40 $0.05
EBITDA/Share $-0.19 $-0.19
Debt/Share $0.00 $0.00
Net Debt/Share $-0.40 $-0.40
Academic Models
Metric Trend Q1'26 Current
Altman Z-Score 9.500
Altman Z-Prime snapshot only 16.690
Piotroski F-Score 2 2
Beneish M-Score
Ohlson O-Score snapshot only -4.609
ROIC (Greenblatt) snapshot only -54.98%
Net-Net WC snapshot only $-0.53
EVA snapshot only $-56773900.00
Credit
Metric Trend Q1'26 Current
Credit Rating snapshot only AA
Credit Score 89.00 89.000
Credit Grade snapshot only 3
Implied Spread (bps) snapshot only 80.000
Industry Credit Rank snapshot only 83
Sector Credit Rank snapshot only 87

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For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Data sourced from SEC filings. Privacy Terms