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LPNT NASDAQ

LifePoint Health, Inc.
1W: +0.1% 1M: +0.6% 3M: +1.0% 1Y: +48.2% 3Y: -7.0% 5Y: +30.0%
$64.99
Last traded 2018-11-21 — delisted
NASDAQ · Healthcare · Medical - Equipment & Services

Edge Score

Quantitative competitive moat analysis scoring five pillars of durable advantage — cost leadership, brand intangibles, switching costs, network effects, and efficient scale — using industry percentile rankings on a 0–100 scale.

WEAK EDGE
40.2 / 100
NoneWeakNarrowWide
Primary source: Efficient Scale  ·  ROIC: 24.0%  ·  5Y Avg: 7.7%
Cost Advantage
67
Intangibles
14
Switching Cost
12
Network Effect
50
Scale ★
85
The Edge Score quantifies a company's competitive moat using five pillars: Cost Advantage (20%, operating margin and SG&A efficiency vs industry peers), Intangible Assets (25%, gross margin premium, R&D intensity, brand pricing power), Switching Costs (25%, revenue stability, earnings consistency, customer retention proxied by operating leverage), Network Effects (15%, revenue growth with expanding margins, market share dominance), and Efficient Scale (15%, market concentration, ROIC sustainability). Each pillar is scored 0–100 using industry percentile rankings, then weighted into a composite. Wide ≥ 70, Narrow ≥ 55, Weak ≥ 40, None < 40. LPNT shows a Weak competitive edge (40.2/100) — limited structural advantages that may face competitive pressure. The primary source of advantage is Efficient Scale. ROIC of 24.0% confirms the company is generating returns well above its cost of capital — a hallmark of durable competitive advantages.

InsiderStreet Scorecard

Proprietary multi-factor scorecard rating companies across seven fundamental dimensions — profitability, balance sheet strength, earnings quality, growth, value, momentum, and safety — each scored 0–100.

★ ★ ★ ★ ★ 32 Grade C
Profitability
17
Balance Sheet
39
Earnings Quality
71
Growth
11
Value
41
Momentum
48
Safety
50
Cash Flow
40
The InsiderStreet Scorecard rates companies across eight dimensions: Profitability (margins, ROA, ROE), Balance Sheet (leverage, liquidity, coverage), Earnings Quality (accruals, cash conversion), Growth (revenue and earnings trajectory), Value (P/E, P/B, earnings yield, Graham criteria), Momentum (revenue and earnings acceleration), Safety (Altman Z-Score risk adjustment), and Cash Flow (operating cash flow quality, FCF conversion, cash coverage). The overall score blends 35% quality, 35% value, and 30% momentum, with a penalty for distress-zone Altman scores. LPNT scores highest in Earnings Quality (71/100) and lowest in Growth (11/100). A grade of C represents mixed fundamentals — strengths in some areas offset by weaknesses.

Risk & Quality Signals

Academic financial models used by institutional investors to assess bankruptcy risk, earnings manipulation, financial strength, and credit quality.

Altman Z-Score
2.13
Grey Zone
Piotroski F-Score
5/9
✓ ✓ ✗ ✓ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✗ ✗
Beneish M-Score
-2.85
Unlikely Manipulator
Ohlson O-Score
-6.78
Bankruptcy prob: 0.1%
Low Risk
Credit Rating
BB-
Score: 36.2/100
Trend: Deteriorating
Earnings Quality
75/100
OCF/NI: 13.60x
Accruals: -8.4%
The Altman Z-Score (1968) combines five ratios — working capital, retained earnings, EBIT, market value of equity, and sales, all relative to total assets or liabilities — into a single bankruptcy predictor. LPNT scores 2.13, placing it in the Grey Zone (safe > 2.99, distress < 1.81). Financial distress is possible and warrants monitoring. The Piotroski F-Score (2000) is a 9-point binary checklist — four profitability tests (positive ROA, positive cash flow, improving ROA, cash flow exceeding net income), three leverage tests (declining debt ratio, improving current ratio, no share dilution), and two efficiency tests (improving gross margin, improving asset turnover). Each pass scores 1 point. LPNT scores 5/9, indicating moderate financial health — some areas of strength offset by weaknesses in others. The Beneish M-Score (1999) is an 8-variable model that detects earnings manipulation by comparing year-over-year changes in receivables, gross margins, asset quality, sales growth, depreciation, SG&A, leverage, and accruals. Scores above −1.78 statistically resemble past manipulators. LPNT's score of -2.85 falls below this threshold, suggesting earnings are unlikely to be manipulated. The Ohlson O-Score (1980) is a 9-variable logistic regression that estimates bankruptcy probability using firm size, leverage, working capital, current ratio, profitability (ROA), cash flow coverage, negative equity flag, consecutive losses flag, and earnings trajectory. The raw score is converted to a probability via logistic transformation. LPNT's implied 0.1% bankruptcy probability is well within safe territory. Our Credit Rating model scores companies on five weighted components — solvency (30%), earning power (25%), leverage (20%), liquidity (15%), and cash flow quality (10%) — then blends the absolute score with sector and industry peer rankings. For companies with large buyback programs, equity is adjusted by adding back cumulative 5-year repurchases (capped at 80% of FCF generated) to avoid penalizing shareholder-friendly capital allocation. LPNT receives an estimated rating of BB- (score: 36.2/100), with a deteriorating trend. The Earnings Quality score measures how well reported earnings are backed by real cash. It evaluates the operating cash flow to net income ratio (OCF/NI ≥ 1.0 means every dollar of earnings is cash-backed) and the accruals ratio (the gap between earnings and cash flow relative to assets — lower is better). LPNT's score of 75/100 is high — cash flows strongly support reported earnings.

Valuation

Key valuation multiples comparing the stock's market price to its earnings, revenue, book value, and cash flows. Lower multiples may indicate relative undervaluation versus peers.

P/E
25.29x
PEG
-0.34x
P/S
0.00x
P/B
1.16x
P/FCF
20.51x
P/OCF
4.46x
EV/EBITDA
8.51x
EV/Revenue
0.81x
EV/EBIT
18.13x
EV/FCF
42.27x
Earnings Yield
1.65%
FCF Yield
4.88%
Shareholder Yield
2.24%
Graham Number
$37.08
Equity-based multiples (P/E, P/B, P/FCF) compare the stock price to per-share fundamentals and are affected by capital structure. Enterprise value multiples (EV/EBITDA, EV/Revenue, EV/FCF) strip out debt and cash, making them more useful for cross-company comparisons regardless of how companies are financed. The Graham Number — √(22.5 × EPS × Book Value) — is Benjamin Graham's formula for the maximum price a defensive investor should pay. At 25.3x earnings, LPNT commands a growth premium. Graham's intrinsic value formula yields $37.08 per share, 75% below the current price.

DuPont Decomposition (5-Factor)

The 5-factor DuPont framework breaks Return on Equity into its component drivers — tax efficiency, interest burden, operating profitability, asset utilization, and financial leverage — to reveal what truly drives shareholder returns.

Tax Burden
3.820
NI / EBT
×
Interest Burden
0.038
EBT / EBIT
×
EBIT Margin
0.045
EBIT / Rev
×
Asset Turnover
1.027
Rev / Assets
×
Equity Multiplier
2.768
Assets / Equity
=
ROE
1.9%
The 5-factor DuPont identity decomposes ROE as: Tax Burden × Interest Burden × EBIT Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier = ROE. This reveals whether returns are driven by operating performance, financial leverage, or tax efficiency — three very different sources of profitability. LPNT's ROE of 1.9% is driven by Asset Turnover (1.027), indicating efficient use of assets to generate revenue. A tax burden ratio of 3.82 indicates minimal tax leakage — the company retains over 90% of pre-tax earnings.

Graham-Dodd Adjusted Valuation

Our adaptation of Graham's growth formula (Fair P/E = 8.5 + 2g) from The Intelligent Investor. The classic version relies on analyst growth projections, which can be unreliable. This adjusted model substitutes the company's realized 3-year EPS CAGR — a backward-looking, verifiable measure of actual earnings power — grounding the valuation in demonstrated performance rather than forecasts.

Two adjustments we make, and why. Growth is capped at 15%. Graham defined g as expected growth over the next seven to ten years, not last year's rate. Across US companies since 1994 the median realized 7-year EPS growth is 5–8% regardless of how fast a company grew beforehand, and of 4,457 company-quarters that grew faster than 200%, none sustained it. Uncapped, the formula assigned fair multiples in the hundreds to companies that had never held that rate — and scored worse than simply reading the P/E. Capped, it carries real information. The verdict has three states, not two. Tested over 377,249 stock-months, this ratio only separates outcomes at its extremes: below 0.25 beat the universe by 1.3 points a year, above 3.0 lagged by 2.7, and everything in between sat inside a one-point band. Rather than call two-thirds of the market "undervalued" on a threshold of 1.0, we say Neutral where the model cannot tell — which is most of the time.

Adj. Growth Rate
0.00%
Fair P/E
8.50x
Intrinsic Value
$9.03
Price/Value
7.13x
Margin of Safety
-612.97%
Premium
612.97%
Assessment
Overvalued
Graham's classic formula uses analyst-projected growth to estimate a fair P/E (8.5 + 2g). Our adjusted version replaces that projection with LPNT's realized 0.0% 3-year EPS CAGR, capped at 15% — demonstrated performance rather than forecasts, held to a rate companies have historically sustained. LPNT trades at a 613% premium to its adjusted intrinsic value of $9.03, suggesting the market is pricing in future growth beyond what historical earnings support. The adjusted fair P/E of 8.5x compares to the current market P/E of 25.3x.

Profitability Trends

Historical profitability ratios tracking how efficiently the company converts revenue into returns for shareholders over time.

Leverage & Solvency Trends

Debt and liquidity metrics showing the company's financial leverage and ability to meet short-term and long-term obligations.

Efficiency & Working Capital Trends

Operating efficiency metrics measuring how quickly the company converts inventory to sales, collects receivables, and manages its cash conversion cycle.

Growth Trends (YoY %)

Year-over-year growth rates for key financial metrics, showing the trajectory of revenue, earnings, and cash flow generation.

Earnings Stability

R-squared of linear regression measuring how predictably revenue, earnings, and margins follow a trend over the trailing 5 years. 1.0 = perfectly predictable; lower values indicate erratic or cyclical behavior.

Monte Carlo Price Simulation

Geometric Brownian Motion with 1,000 antithetic paths over 1 year, seeded from 1800 days of historical volatility. Percentile bands show the range of statistically plausible outcomes — this is a statistical model, not a forecast.

Current Price
$64.99
Median 1Y
$67.18
5th Pctile
$39.71
95th Pctile
$113.81
Ann. Volatility
30.3%
25th–75th percentile 5th–95th percentile Median path Historical
All Ratios & Metrics

Complete fundamental data with up to 20 periods of history, sparkline trends, and current values across 13 categories and 130+ financial metrics.

Profitability
Metric Trend Q4'13 Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16 Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Current
ROE 6.0% 6.3% 6.7% 6.4% 5.8% 6.0% 6.2% 6.8% 8.2% 7.4% 6.0% 5.9% 5.5% 7.1% 8.2% 7.7% 4.7% 1.7% 2.1% 1.9% 1.85%
ROA 2.5% 2.6% 2.8% 2.7% 2.3% 2.3% 2.5% 2.7% 3.2% 2.8% 2.3% 2.2% 2.0% 2.5% 2.9% 2.7% 1.6% 0.6% 0.8% 0.7% 0.67%
ROIC 4.9% 5.0% 5.7% 5.8% 7.0% 7.4% 7.7% 7.6% 6.0% 5.3% 5.0% 5.0% 4.9% 5.0% 5.1% 4.8% 4.1% 4.4% 5.1% 24.0% 24.00%
ROCE 6.8% 7.0% 7.2% 7.2% 7.9% 8.3% 8.3% 8.6% 7.9% 7.2% 6.8% 6.9% 6.8% 7.3% 7.5% 7.3% 5.7% 5.6% 5.6% 5.3% 5.25%
Gross Margin 48.5% 46.6% 47.8% 46.7% 45.3% 44.3% 45.5% 45.4% 44.5% 42.9% 43.3% 44.2% 43.4% 42.9% 43.7% 44.0% 43.0% 35.8% 36.5% 34.8% 34.76%
Operating Margin 7.7% 7.2% 7.8% 7.1% 10.8% 8.1% 7.2% 6.9% 7.1% 4.2% 5.0% 5.6% 6.0% 4.4% 5.7% 4.9% 1.0% 6.3% 6.4% 4.8% 4.76%
Net Margin 3.1% 3.1% 3.1% 2.0% 1.5% 2.7% 3.2% 2.9% 3.4% 1.2% 0.9% 2.2% 2.4% 3.2% 2.3% 1.5% -1.5% -0.3% 3.3% 1.4% 1.43%
EBITDA Margin 12.8% 12.3% 12.7% 12.1% 14.8% 12.8% 11.9% 11.5% 11.7% 9.0% 9.7% 10.3% 10.7% 9.1% 10.5% 9.8% 5.9% 11.3% 11.5% 10.0% 9.96%
FCF Margin 3.8% 4.5% 4.7% 4.8% 3.9% 4.6% 6.1% 6.4% 5.9% 3.9% 1.7% 1.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.7% -0.6% -0.0% 0.3% 0.7% 1.9% 1.93%
OCF Margin 8.0% 8.2% 8.1% 8.2% 7.8% 8.7% 10.4% 10.9% 10.4% 8.4% 6.2% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.6% 5.4% 6.5% 6.9% 7.5% 8.9% 8.87%
ROE 3Y Avg snapshot only 5.14%
ROE 5Y Avg snapshot only 5.71%
ROA 3Y Avg snapshot only 1.82%
ROIC 3Y Avg snapshot only 17.53%
ROIC Economic snapshot only 23.86%
Cash ROA snapshot only 9.18%
Cash ROIC snapshot only 11.48%
CROIC snapshot only 2.50%
NOPAT Margin snapshot only 18.54%
Pretax Margin snapshot only 0.17%
R&D / Revenue snapshot only 0.00%
SGA / Revenue snapshot only 8.05%
SBC / Revenue snapshot only 0.76%
Valuation
Metric Trend Q4'13 Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16 Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Current
P/E Ratio 19.66 19.62 19.97 23.20 26.52 26.47 29.84 21.70 18.40 18.72 21.44 19.49 19.15 16.85 14.93 13.63 19.02 48.62 40.50 60.60 25.288
P/S Ratio 0.57 0.58 0.62 0.65 0.63 0.61 0.70 0.55 0.56 0.48 0.43 0.36 0.32 0.37 0.38 0.32 0.27 0.26 0.29 0.40 0.000
P/B Ratio 1.14 1.23 1.34 1.48 1.55 1.56 1.80 1.47 1.48 1.35 1.28 1.16 1.07 1.20 1.22 1.04 0.87 0.83 0.86 1.12 1.156
P/FCF 14.93 12.96 13.22 13.40 16.30 13.14 11.33 8.71 9.50 12.33 26.14 36.52 65.39 118.36 57.66 -54.44 -752.75 98.55 38.09 20.51 20.507
P/OCF 7.12 7.04 7.57 7.91 8.11 7.01 6.68 5.08 5.34 5.75 6.99 6.11 5.36 6.16 5.75 5.98 4.15 3.81 3.82 4.46 4.457
EV/EBITDA 7.95 8.26 8.11 8.36 7.76 7.27 7.79 6.86 7.97 8.09 7.94 7.35 7.13 7.51 7.43 6.95 7.39 7.04 7.32 8.51 8.507
EV/Revenue 0.96 0.99 1.02 1.04 1.01 0.95 1.01 0.87 0.95 0.89 0.83 0.75 0.71 0.75 0.76 0.70 0.65 0.66 0.70 0.81 0.815
EV/EBIT 13.79 14.29 13.65 14.47 14.00 13.14 14.10 12.07 13.43 14.22 14.54 13.74 13.66 13.39 13.14 12.48 14.93 14.85 15.36 18.13 18.132
EV/FCF 25.23 22.15 21.80 21.53 26.17 20.65 16.35 13.73 16.27 22.54 49.97 74.72 144.33 240.45 115.32 -117.39 -1824.94 247.85 93.13 42.27 42.270
Earnings Yield 5.1% 5.1% 5.0% 4.3% 3.8% 3.8% 3.4% 4.6% 5.4% 5.3% 4.7% 5.1% 5.2% 5.9% 6.7% 7.3% 5.3% 2.1% 2.5% 1.7% 1.65%
FCF Yield 6.7% 7.7% 7.6% 7.5% 6.1% 7.6% 8.8% 11.5% 10.5% 8.1% 3.8% 2.7% 1.5% 0.8% 1.7% -1.8% -0.1% 1.0% 2.6% 4.9% 4.88%
Price/Tangible Book snapshot only 5.324
EV/OCF snapshot only 9.187
EV/Gross Profit snapshot only 2.161
Acquirers Multiple snapshot only 18.132
Shareholder Yield snapshot only 2.24%
Graham Number snapshot only $37.08
Leverage & Solvency
Metric Trend Q4'13 Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16 Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Current
Current Ratio 1.51 1.40 2.78 2.36 2.22 2.30 2.42 2.08 2.05 1.72 1.94 1.80 1.67 1.74 1.82 1.84 1.70 1.76 1.85 1.85 1.846
Quick Ratio 1.41 1.30 2.56 2.17 2.02 2.11 2.22 1.89 1.84 1.53 1.74 1.61 1.47 1.54 1.60 1.65 1.49 1.55 1.63 1.63 1.630
Debt/Equity 1.08 1.12 1.03 1.02 1.03 1.02 0.99 0.99 1.18 1.20 1.29 1.32 1.34 1.29 1.27 1.27 1.29 1.32 1.30 1.26 1.258
Net Debt/Equity 0.79 0.87 0.87 0.90 0.94 0.89 0.80 0.85 1.05 1.12 1.17 1.21 1.29 1.24 1.22 1.20 1.24 1.26 1.24 1.19 1.189
Debt/Assets 0.43 0.43 0.41 0.40 0.41 0.40 0.40 0.39 0.45 0.43 0.46 0.46 0.46 0.46 0.46 0.45 0.46 0.47 0.47 0.46 0.460
Debt/EBITDA 4.44 4.41 3.77 3.58 3.21 3.03 2.96 2.92 3.71 3.93 4.18 4.10 4.03 3.99 3.89 3.95 4.51 4.46 4.55 4.64 4.637
Net Debt/EBITDA 3.25 3.43 3.19 3.16 2.93 2.64 2.39 2.51 3.31 3.67 3.79 3.76 3.90 3.81 3.71 3.73 4.34 4.24 4.33 4.38 4.380
Interest Coverage 3.14 2.87 2.98 2.95 3.12 3.45 3.61 3.76 3.73 3.21 2.44 2.31 2.20 2.39 2.94 2.84 2.20 2.16 2.08 1.98 1.983
Equity Multiplier 2.53 2.62 2.50 2.54 2.53 2.52 2.48 2.50 2.65 2.77 2.81 2.87 2.90 2.82 2.77 2.80 2.80 2.83 2.77 2.74 2.736
Cash Ratio snapshot only 0.224
Debt Service Coverage snapshot only 4.227
Cash to Debt snapshot only 0.055
FCF to Debt snapshot only 0.043
Defensive Interval snapshot only 163.0 days
Efficiency & Turnover
Metric Trend Q4'13 Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16 Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Current
Asset Turnover 0.86 0.87 0.92 0.95 0.96 1.01 1.06 1.06 1.05 1.08 1.13 1.18 1.18 1.16 1.16 1.15 1.15 1.11 1.08 1.03 1.027
Inventory Turnover 23.28 23.43 24.05 24.78 26.09 27.47 28.10 27.28 27.27 26.70 28.01 28.48 29.18 27.18 27.10 27.03 26.76 26.60 26.24 26.38 26.379
Receivables Turnover 7.99 7.41 7.81 7.60 7.86 7.94 8.45 7.96 8.04 7.56 8.14 8.52 8.78 7.93 8.08 8.17 8.37 8.03 7.97 7.65 7.653
Payables Turnover 18.46 18.31 19.04 19.50 19.25 19.91 20.86 19.63 20.52 18.99 20.53 20.18 19.34 18.69 18.77 19.33 17.44 19.64 19.41 19.82 19.823
DSO 46 49 47 48 46 46 43 46 45 48 45 43 42 46 45 45 44 45 46 48 47.7 days
DIO 16 16 15 15 14 13 13 13 13 14 13 13 13 13 13 14 14 14 14 14 13.8 days
DPO 20 20 19 19 19 18 17 19 18 19 18 18 19 20 19 19 21 19 19 18 18.4 days
Cash Conversion Cycle 42 45 43 44 41 41 39 41 41 43 40 38 35 40 39 39 36 41 41 43 43.1 days
Fixed Asset Turnover snapshot only 2.162
Operating Cycle snapshot only 61.5 days
Cash Velocity snapshot only 40.615
Capital Intensity snapshot only 0.965
Growth (YoY)
Metric Trend Q4'13 Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16 Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Current
Revenue 53.7% 25.4% 22.5% 21.7% 19.7% 23.5% 23.7% 19.1% 13.5% 14.3% 15.8% 18.2% 20.9% 15.3% 9.4% 4.5% -0.1% -4.6% -8.1% -11.2% -11.24%
Net Income -16.4% -10.2% 21.2% 24.6% -1.6% -3.8% -6.5% 8.6% 44.3% 28.7% -0.1% -13.4% -33.0% -2.7% 37.5% 32.7% -15.6% -76.5% -74.4% -75.6% -75.60%
EPS -14.4% -11.3% 24.3% 27.5% 0.9% -0.2% -6.3% 9.6% 47.1% 33.3% 4.7% -7.0% -25.6% 5.1% 47.5% 39.8% -11.7% -75.1% -73.2% -75.0% -74.99%
FCF 39.4% 27.4% 32.1% 32.5% 21.6% 28.0% 63.0% 56.3% 71.7% -3.0% -68.9% -81.5% -89.9% -90.9% -56.6% -1.6% -1.1% -18.4% 5.2% 3.9% 3.88%
EBITDA 0.0% -0.5% 19.1% 26.7% 29.1% 35.5% 27.3% 21.6% 4.0% -4.7% -6.8% -5.9% 0.5% 4.7% 7.1% 3.4% -11.1% -10.3% -13.8% -15.3% -15.26%
Op. Income -3.4% -4.1% 36.7% 39.6% 43.5% 54.8% 38.3% 31.5% -0.2% -15.7% -20.3% -21.8% -14.1% -4.0% 3.1% 0.5% -22.9% -19.1% -22.6% -23.8% -23.77%
OCF Growth snapshot only 45.62%
Asset Growth snapshot only -1.75%
Equity Growth snapshot only 0.54%
Debt Growth snapshot only -0.59%
Shares Change snapshot only -2.44%
Growth (CAGR)
Metric Trend Q4'13 Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16 Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Current
Revenue 3Y 12.0% 11.4% 11.6% 13.0% 14.9% 22.6% 24.7% 26.4% 27.8% 20.9% 20.6% 19.7% 18.0% 17.6% 16.2% 13.8% 11.1% 7.9% 5.2% 3.1% 3.13%
Revenue 5Y 10.3% 10.6% 11.1% 12.0% 12.9% 13.5% 14.0% 14.1% 13.8% 14.3% 14.8% 15.2% 15.8% 19.4% 19.7% 20.0% 20.3% 14.2% 12.0% 9.7% 9.72%
EPS 3Y -3.2% -2.6% 0.4% -1.1% -5.4% -6.3% -6.6% -2.9% 8.3% 5.7% 6.8% 9.1% 3.3% 11.8% 13.1% 12.5% -1.2% -29.6% -25.5% -31.2% -31.23%
EPS 5Y 4.4% 5.2% 8.2% 8.4% 2.9% 2.4% 2.8% 3.5% 6.1% 4.2% -0.2% -0.3% -1.5% 2.9% 4.7% 3.5% -3.6% -21.0% -13.6% -14.6% -14.60%
Net Income 3Y -6.6% -5.1% -3.1% -4.8% -7.9% -7.7% -7.9% -4.4% 5.9% 3.6% 4.2% 5.4% -1.7% 6.4% 8.7% 7.7% -6.6% -33.4% -29.4% -34.6% -34.56%
Net Income 5Y 2.3% 3.0% 5.4% 5.4% -0.1% -0.9% -0.5% 0.2% 2.9% 1.1% -3.2% -4.1% -5.5% -0.3% 1.4% 0.1% -7.7% -23.9% -16.8% -17.6% -17.63%
EBITDA 3Y 11.4% 16.0% 17.8% 13.4% 12.4% 10.4% 10.4% 10.5% 10.3% 8.7% 12.3% 13.2% 10.5% 10.6% 8.3% 5.8% -2.4% -3.6% -4.9% -6.2% -6.22%
EBITDA 5Y 4.6% 4.6% 6.1% 7.5% 8.7% 9.2% 9.4% 11.6% 13.2% 15.1% 14.2% 10.8% 8.2% 6.1% 6.1% 5.6% 3.7% 3.8% 5.5% 4.9% 4.90%
Gross Profit 3Y 12.6% 11.6% 11.6% 12.4% 13.4% 29.0% 21.2% 15.0% 10.1% 2.4% 6.7% 10.8% 14.2% 14.0% 12.6% 10.5% 8.5% 4.6% 0.9% -2.9% -2.88%
Gross Profit 5Y 10.9% 11.1% 11.6% 12.3% 12.8% 13.1% 13.3% 13.2% 12.7% 12.8% 12.9% 13.0% 13.3% 21.7% 16.7% 12.6% 9.3% 2.1% 2.2% 1.7% 1.70%
Op. Income 3Y -4.1% 23.9% 27.2% 28.1% 34.9% 8.6% 7.7% 10.9% 11.4% 7.8% 14.6% 12.8% 7.1% 7.8% 4.3% 1.1% -12.9% -13.2% -14.0% -15.7% -15.72%
Op. Income 5Y -0.3% -0.5% 1.8% 3.3% 6.8% 7.8% 7.8% 7.2% 4.7% 19.9% 17.8% 16.7% 16.0% 0.7% 0.5% 1.4% -1.7% -0.6% 3.8% 1.9% 1.90%
FCF 3Y -9.8% -0.7% 0.3% 3.8% -1.0% 12.4% 38.6% 37.6% 42.8% 16.6% -12.5% -27.3% -40.4% -51.6% -39.6% — — -58.4% -47.8% -30.7% -30.73%
FCF 5Y -0.4% 2.7% 6.9% 9.9% 6.4% 7.0% 14.0% 12.8% 8.9% 4.0% -12.5% -20.2% -29.9% -34.0% -18.5% — — -34.8% -21.1% -7.2% -7.18%
OCF 3Y -4.0% -0.3% -2.1% -0.5% 0.0% 6.4% 19.0% 20.4% 22.1% 14.9% 7.0% 7.3% 7.1% 5.8% 8.1% -1.0% 4.6% -0.2% -5.8% -3.8% -3.76%
OCF 5Y 1.0% 2.1% 3.4% 5.2% 5.5% 6.7% 12.0% 12.4% 9.4% 7.5% 0.4% 0.1% 1.1% 1.8% 6.1% 1.3% 6.5% 6.3% 8.4% 11.3% 11.29%
Assets 3Y 10.8% 10.2% 8.0% 9.0% 8.3% 7.9% 7.5% 7.6% 8.6% 9.4% 9.6% 8.9% 4.2% 4.5% 5.7% 4.8% 4.8% 4.4% 3.8% 3.9% 3.88%
Assets 5Y 8.9% 8.6% 7.4% 8.0% 7.5% 7.2% 7.1% 7.2% 7.9% 8.8% 8.4% 8.1% 8.0% 7.8% 7.2% 7.3% 6.1% 5.3% 5.2% 5.1% 5.09%
Equity 3Y 5.3% 4.0% 3.2% 3.2% 3.7% 3.8% 3.7% 2.8% 2.6% 2.7% 1.8% 0.7% -0.4% 1.9% 2.0% 1.5% 1.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.9% 0.87%
Book Value 3Y 9.2% 6.7% 6.8% 7.1% 6.5% 5.4% 5.1% 4.4% 5.0% 4.8% 4.3% 4.2% 4.6% 7.1% 6.1% 6.1% 7.2% 6.3% 5.6% 6.0% 6.00%
Dividend 3Y — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — —
Growth Quality
Metric Trend Q4'13 Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16 Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Current
Revenue Stability 0.52 0.76 0.74 0.71 0.68 0.81 0.82 0.82 0.81 0.91 0.92 0.94 0.96 1.00 1.00 0.98 0.95 0.91 0.83 0.71 0.713
Earnings Stability 0.18 0.18 0.08 0.01 0.10 0.19 0.10 0.09 0.00 0.07 0.33 0.21 0.06 0.01 0.05 0.03 0.17 0.24 0.08 0.10 0.096
Margin Stability 0.81 0.74 0.86 0.89 0.80 0.74 0.85 0.88 0.79 0.77 0.84 0.91 0.96 0.93 0.94 0.86 0.77 0.73 0.80 0.86 0.860
Rev. Growth Consistency 0.50 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000
Earn. Growth Consistency 0.00 0.00 0.50 0.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.50 0.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.50 0.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000
FCF Positive Streak 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0
Earnings Persistence 0.93 0.96 0.92 0.90 0.99 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.82 0.89 1.00 0.95 0.87 0.99 0.85 0.87 0.94 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.500
Earnings Smoothness 0.82 0.89 0.81 0.78 0.98 0.96 0.93 0.92 0.64 0.75 1.00 0.86 0.61 0.97 0.68 0.72 0.83 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000
ROE Trend -0.02 -0.01 -0.00 -0.00 -0.01 -0.01 -0.00 0.01 0.02 0.01 -0.00 -0.01 -0.01 0.01 0.02 0.01 -0.02 -0.05 -0.05 -0.05 -0.049
Gross Margin Trend -0.11 -0.09 -0.09 -0.10 -0.13 -0.15 -0.10 -0.06 -0.02 -0.02 -0.03 -0.03 -0.02 -0.02 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.02 -0.04 -0.06 -0.059
FCF Margin Trend -0.01 -0.01 0.00 0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.02 -0.01 -0.04 -0.05 -0.04 -0.04 -0.03 -0.04 -0.03 -0.02 -0.00 0.02 0.017
Sustainable Growth Rate 6.0% 6.3% 6.7% 6.4% 5.8% 6.0% 6.2% 6.8% 8.2% 7.4% 6.0% 5.9% 5.5% 7.1% 8.2% 7.7% 4.7% 1.7% 2.1% 1.9% 1.85%
Internal Growth Rate 2.6% 2.6% 2.9% 2.7% 2.3% 2.4% 2.5% 2.8% 3.3% 2.9% 2.3% 2.2% 2.0% 2.6% 3.0% 2.8% 1.7% 0.6% 0.8% 0.7% 0.67%
Cash Flow Quality
Metric Trend Q4'13 Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16 Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Current
OCF/Net Income 2.76 2.79 2.64 2.93 3.27 3.78 4.47 4.27 3.45 3.26 3.07 3.19 3.57 2.74 2.60 2.28 4.58 12.75 10.60 13.60 13.597
FCF/OCF 0.48 0.54 0.57 0.59 0.50 0.53 0.59 0.58 0.56 0.47 0.27 0.17 0.08 0.05 0.10 -0.11 -0.01 0.04 0.10 0.22 0.217
FCF/Net Income snapshot only 2.955
OCF/EBITDA snapshot only 0.926
CapEx/Revenue 4.2% 3.8% 3.5% 3.4% 3.9% 4.1% 4.3% 4.6% 4.6% 4.5% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% 5.7% 5.9% 6.0% 6.5% 6.6% 6.7% 6.9% 6.94%
CapEx/Depreciation snapshot only 1.365
Accruals Ratio -0.04 -0.05 -0.05 -0.05 -0.05 -0.06 -0.09 -0.09 -0.08 -0.06 -0.05 -0.05 -0.05 -0.04 -0.05 -0.03 -0.06 -0.07 -0.07 -0.08 -0.084
Sloan Accruals snapshot only -0.060
Cash Flow Adequacy snapshot only 1.278
Earnings Quality Score snapshot only 0.750
Dividends & Buybacks
Metric Trend Q4'13 Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16 Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Current
Dividend Yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.00%
Dividend/Share $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Payout Ratio 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.00%
FCF Payout Ratio 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% — — 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.00%
Total Payout Ratio 30.5% 1.3% 1.4% 1.2% 1.8% 94.1% 62.3% 1.0% 73.9% 65.7% 1.2% 1.5% 1.9% 1.4% 1.1% 78.0% 74.0% 2.7% 1.9% 1.4% 1.36%
Div. Increase Streak — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — —
Chowder Number — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — —
Buyback Yield 1.6% 6.4% 7.1% 5.4% 6.6% 3.6% 2.1% 4.6% 4.0% 3.5% 5.5% 7.5% 10.0% 8.6% 7.3% 5.7% 3.9% 5.6% 4.8% 2.2% 2.24%
Net Buyback Yield 1.6% 6.4% 7.1% 5.4% 6.6% 3.6% 2.1% 4.6% 4.0% 3.5% 5.5% 7.5% 10.0% 8.6% 7.3% 5.7% 3.9% 5.6% 4.8% 2.2% 2.24%
Total Shareholder Return 1.6% 6.4% 7.1% 5.4% 6.6% 3.6% 2.1% 4.6% 4.0% 3.5% 5.5% 7.5% 10.0% 8.6% 7.3% 5.7% 3.9% 5.6% 4.8% 2.2% 2.24%
DuPont Factors
Metric Trend Q4'13 Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16 Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Current
Tax Burden (NI/EBT) 0.61 0.64 0.62 0.62 0.62 0.59 0.59 0.59 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.61 0.61 0.59 0.64 0.62 0.76 3.82 3.820
Interest Burden (EBT/EBIT) 0.68 0.67 0.66 0.63 0.53 0.54 0.56 0.60 0.71 0.69 0.59 0.57 0.54 0.65 0.72 0.72 0.50 0.20 0.20 0.04 0.038
EBIT Margin 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.06 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.04 0.045
Asset Turnover 0.86 0.87 0.92 0.95 0.96 1.01 1.06 1.06 1.05 1.08 1.13 1.18 1.18 1.16 1.16 1.15 1.15 1.11 1.08 1.03 1.027
Equity Multiplier 2.39 2.46 2.37 2.41 2.53 2.57 2.49 2.52 2.59 2.65 2.65 2.69 2.77 2.80 2.79 2.83 2.85 2.83 2.77 2.77 2.768
Per Share
Metric Trend Q4'13 Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16 Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Current
EPS (Diluted TTM) $2.69 $2.78 $3.11 $2.98 $2.71 $2.77 $2.91 $3.27 $3.99 $3.70 $3.05 $3.04 $2.97 $3.89 $4.50 $4.25 $2.62 $0.97 $1.21 $1.06 $1.06
Book Value/Share $46.33 $44.42 $46.20 $46.73 $46.34 $47.18 $48.26 $48.29 $49.65 $51.34 $51.04 $51.16 $53.05 $54.58 $55.25 $55.79 $57.06 $56.68 $56.89 $57.50 $57.29
Tangible Book/Share $10.20 $8.72 $9.61 $10.19 $9.66 $10.20 $11.54 $10.71 $11.53 $11.11 $10.66 $9.68 $7.84 $9.67 $10.56 $11.49 $10.90 $10.24 $11.02 $12.10 $12.10
Revenue/Share $92.84 $94.38 $100.68 $106.58 $114.00 $120.82 $124.86 $128.02 $131.89 $143.00 $151.47 $162.62 $176.97 $178.07 $177.78 $179.11 $184.81 $179.54 $170.88 $162.97 $182.03
FCF/Share $3.54 $4.21 $4.70 $5.16 $4.41 $5.59 $7.67 $8.14 $7.73 $5.62 $2.50 $1.62 $0.87 $0.55 $1.16 $-1.06 $-0.07 $0.48 $1.28 $3.14 $-0.07
OCF/Share $7.42 $7.75 $8.20 $8.75 $8.87 $10.48 $13.01 $13.97 $13.75 $12.05 $9.35 $9.69 $10.59 $10.64 $11.68 $9.68 $12.00 $12.32 $12.78 $14.45 $11.82
Cash/Share $13.37 $11.14 $7.35 $5.63 $4.12 $6.11 $9.11 $6.76 $6.23 $4.20 $6.19 $5.59 $2.34 $3.05 $3.17 $4.05 $2.85 $3.59 $3.64 $4.01 $2.81
EBITDA/Share $11.23 $11.29 $12.63 $13.30 $14.88 $15.87 $16.12 $16.30 $15.78 $15.66 $15.74 $16.48 $17.59 $17.72 $18.08 $17.96 $16.35 $16.78 $16.29 $15.60 $15.60
Debt/Share $49.83 $49.83 $47.64 $47.58 $47.71 $48.04 $47.65 $47.65 $58.53 $61.60 $65.81 $67.53 $70.91 $70.62 $70.32 $71.00 $73.78 $74.80 $74.14 $72.36 $72.36
Net Debt/Share $36.45 $38.69 $40.29 $41.95 $43.59 $41.93 $38.54 $40.89 $52.30 $57.40 $59.62 $61.94 $68.57 $67.57 $67.15 $66.95 $70.93 $71.21 $70.50 $68.34 $68.34
Academic Models
Metric Trend Q4'13 Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16 Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Current
Altman Z-Score — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — 2.130
Altman Z-Prime snapshot only 2.640
Piotroski F-Score 5 5 8 7 7 7 6 7 6 6 5 5 5 6 7 8 6 5 5 5 5
Beneish M-Score -1.93 -2.54 -2.53 -2.36 -2.40 -2.58 -2.72 -2.91 -2.78 -2.58 -2.44 -2.51 -2.56 -2.66 -2.71 -2.63 -2.84 -2.81 -2.83 -2.85 -2.847
Ohlson O-Score snapshot only -6.781
ROIC (Greenblatt) snapshot only 8.09%
Net-Net WC snapshot only $-65.66
EVA snapshot only $703111441.44
Credit
Metric Trend Q4'13 Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16 Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Current
Credit Rating snapshot only BB-
Credit Score 44.73 42.19 47.27 50.95 54.88 55.22 61.46 57.85 54.62 53.27 43.73 46.23 40.92 46.91 46.20 44.89 39.61 43.93 41.49 36.24 36.241
Credit Grade snapshot only 13
Credit Trend snapshot only -8.650
Implied Spread (bps) snapshot only 550.000
Industry Credit Rank snapshot only 0
Sector Credit Rank snapshot only 27

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