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Not Investment Advice

MGP NYSE

MGM Growth Properties LLC
1W: +1.3% 1M: +4.9% 3M: +11.0% 1Y: +15.9% 3Y: +29.1% 5Y: +45.7%
$41.64
Last traded 2022-04-28 — delisted
NYSE · Real Estate · REIT - Diversified

Edge Score

Quantitative competitive moat analysis scoring five pillars of durable advantage — cost leadership, brand intangibles, switching costs, network effects, and efficient scale — using industry percentile rankings on a 0–100 scale.

WEAK EDGE
47.5 / 100
NoneWeakNarrowWide
Primary source: Intangible Assets  ·  ROIC: 6.4%  ·  5Y Avg: 2.3%
Cost Advantage
53
Intangibles
59
Switching Cost
34
Network Effect
35
Scale
56
The Edge Score quantifies a company's competitive moat using five pillars: Cost Advantage (20%, operating margin and SG&A efficiency vs industry peers), Intangible Assets (25%, gross margin premium, R&D intensity, brand pricing power), Switching Costs (25%, revenue stability, earnings consistency, customer retention proxied by operating leverage), Network Effects (15%, revenue growth with expanding margins, market share dominance), and Efficient Scale (15%, market concentration, ROIC sustainability). Each pillar is scored 0–100 using industry percentile rankings, then weighted into a composite. Wide ≥ 70, Narrow ≥ 55, Weak ≥ 40, None < 40. MGP shows a Weak competitive edge (47.5/100) — limited structural advantages that may face competitive pressure. The primary source of advantage is Intangible Assets. ROIC of 6.4% suggests modest returns relative to capital deployed.

Analyst Insights

Wall Street analyst consensus based on price targets and buy/sell/hold recommendations from institutional research coverage over the trailing 12 months.

Analyst Price Targets
Analyst Recommendations
Strong Buy: 0Buy: 14Hold: 6Sell: 0Strong Sell: 0
Rating Summary
ConsensusBuy
Avg Target$—
Analysts0
Price Target Change History
DateFirmAnalystOldNewChangeUpside @ CallStock@Call
2021-05-03 Bank of America Securities Shaun Kelley Initiated $38 — +14.3% $33.25
2021-05-03 Morgan Stanley Thomas Allen Initiated $38 — +14.3% $33.25
2021-04-26 Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. John Massocca Initiated $39 — +16.4% $33.50

InsiderStreet Scorecard

Proprietary multi-factor scorecard rating companies across seven fundamental dimensions — profitability, balance sheet strength, earnings quality, growth, value, momentum, and safety — each scored 0–100.

★ ★ ★ ★ ★ 57 Grade A
Profitability
71
Balance Sheet
26
Earnings Quality
92
Growth
57
Value
56
Momentum
86
Safety
15
Cash Flow
77
The InsiderStreet Scorecard rates companies across eight dimensions: Profitability (margins, ROA, ROE), Balance Sheet (leverage, liquidity, coverage), Earnings Quality (accruals, cash conversion), Growth (revenue and earnings trajectory), Value (P/E, P/B, earnings yield, Graham criteria), Momentum (revenue and earnings acceleration), Safety (Altman Z-Score risk adjustment), and Cash Flow (operating cash flow quality, FCF conversion, cash coverage). The overall score blends 35% quality, 35% value, and 30% momentum, with a penalty for distress-zone Altman scores. MGP scores highest in Earnings Quality (92/100) and lowest in Safety (15/100). An overall grade of A places MGP among the highest-quality companies in its peer group.

Risk & Quality Signals

Academic financial models used by institutional investors to assess bankruptcy risk, earnings manipulation, financial strength, and credit quality.

Altman Z-Score
0.91
Distress Zone
Piotroski F-Score
7/9
✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓
Beneish M-Score
-2.60
Unlikely Manipulator
Ohlson O-Score
-7.71
Bankruptcy prob: 0.0%
Low Risk
Credit Rating
B+
Score: 30.8/100
Trend: Stable
Earnings Quality
100/100
OCF/NI: 2.36x
Accruals: -4.0%
The Altman Z-Score (1968) combines five ratios — working capital, retained earnings, EBIT, market value of equity, and sales, all relative to total assets or liabilities — into a single bankruptcy predictor. MGP scores 0.91, placing it in the Distress Zone (safe > 2.99, distress < 1.81). Historically, companies in this range face elevated bankruptcy risk. The Piotroski F-Score (2000) is a 9-point binary checklist — four profitability tests (positive ROA, positive cash flow, improving ROA, cash flow exceeding net income), three leverage tests (declining debt ratio, improving current ratio, no share dilution), and two efficiency tests (improving gross margin, improving asset turnover). Each pass scores 1 point. MGP scores 7/9, signaling strong financial health across all three dimensions. The Beneish M-Score (1999) is an 8-variable model that detects earnings manipulation by comparing year-over-year changes in receivables, gross margins, asset quality, sales growth, depreciation, SG&A, leverage, and accruals. Scores above −1.78 statistically resemble past manipulators. MGP's score of -2.60 falls below this threshold, suggesting earnings are unlikely to be manipulated. The Ohlson O-Score (1980) is a 9-variable logistic regression that estimates bankruptcy probability using firm size, leverage, working capital, current ratio, profitability (ROA), cash flow coverage, negative equity flag, consecutive losses flag, and earnings trajectory. The raw score is converted to a probability via logistic transformation. MGP's implied 0.0% bankruptcy probability is well within safe territory. Our Credit Rating model scores companies on five weighted components — solvency (30%), earning power (25%), leverage (20%), liquidity (15%), and cash flow quality (10%) — then blends the absolute score with sector and industry peer rankings. For companies with large buyback programs, equity is adjusted by adding back cumulative 5-year repurchases (capped at 80% of FCF generated) to avoid penalizing shareholder-friendly capital allocation. MGP receives an estimated rating of B+ (score: 30.8/100), with a stable trend. The Earnings Quality score measures how well reported earnings are backed by real cash. It evaluates the operating cash flow to net income ratio (OCF/NI ≥ 1.0 means every dollar of earnings is cash-backed) and the accruals ratio (the gap between earnings and cash flow relative to assets — lower is better). MGP's score of 100/100 is high — cash flows strongly support reported earnings.

Valuation

Key valuation multiples comparing the stock's market price to its earnings, revenue, book value, and cash flows. Lower multiples may indicate relative undervaluation versus peers.

P/E
17.50x
PEG
0.50x
P/S
0.00x
P/B
1.99x
P/FCF
8.66x
P/OCF
8.66x
EV/EBITDA
12.14x
EV/Revenue
13.39x
EV/EBIT
16.77x
EV/FCF
15.08x
Earnings Yield
4.89%
FCF Yield
11.54%
Shareholder Yield
9.04%
Graham Number
$29.32
Equity-based multiples (P/E, P/B, P/FCF) compare the stock price to per-share fundamentals and are affected by capital structure. Enterprise value multiples (EV/EBITDA, EV/Revenue, EV/FCF) strip out debt and cash, making them more useful for cross-company comparisons regardless of how companies are financed. The Graham Number — √(22.5 × EPS × Book Value) — is Benjamin Graham's formula for the maximum price a defensive investor should pay. At 17.5x earnings, MGP trades at a reasonable valuation. Graham's intrinsic value formula yields $29.32 per share, 42% below the current price.

DuPont Decomposition (5-Factor)

The 5-factor DuPont framework breaks Return on Equity into its component drivers — tax efficiency, interest burden, operating profitability, asset utilization, and financial leverage — to reveal what truly drives shareholder returns.

Tax Burden
0.971
NI / EBT
×
Interest Burden
0.486
EBT / EBIT
×
EBIT Margin
0.798
EBIT / Rev
×
Asset Turnover
0.077
Rev / Assets
×
Equity Multiplier
3.330
Assets / Equity
=
ROE
9.7%
The 5-factor DuPont identity decomposes ROE as: Tax Burden × Interest Burden × EBIT Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier = ROE. This reveals whether returns are driven by operating performance, financial leverage, or tax efficiency — three very different sources of profitability. MGP's ROE of 9.7% is driven by financial leverage (equity multiplier: 3.33x). Note: high leverage means ROE is amplified by debt rather than operational performance. A tax burden ratio of 0.97 indicates minimal tax leakage — the company retains over 90% of pre-tax earnings.

Graham-Dodd Adjusted Valuation

Our adaptation of Graham's growth formula (Fair P/E = 8.5 + 2g) from The Intelligent Investor. The classic version relies on analyst growth projections, which can be unreliable. This adjusted model substitutes the company's realized 3-year EPS CAGR — a backward-looking, verifiable measure of actual earnings power — grounding the valuation in demonstrated performance rather than forecasts.

Two adjustments we make, and why. Growth is capped at 15%. Graham defined g as expected growth over the next seven to ten years, not last year's rate. Across US companies since 1994 the median realized 7-year EPS growth is 5–8% regardless of how fast a company grew beforehand, and of 4,457 company-quarters that grew faster than 200%, none sustained it. Uncapped, the formula assigned fair multiples in the hundreds to companies that had never held that rate — and scored worse than simply reading the P/E. Capped, it carries real information. The verdict has three states, not two. Tested over 377,249 stock-months, this ratio only separates outcomes at its extremes: below 0.25 beat the universe by 1.3 points a year, above 3.0 lagged by 2.7, and everything in between sat inside a one-point band. Rather than call two-thirds of the market "undervalued" on a threshold of 1.0, we say Neutral where the model cannot tell — which is most of the time.

Adj. Growth Rate
15.00%
Fair P/E
38.50x
Intrinsic Value
$72.93
Price/Value
0.53x
Margin of Safety
46.94%
Premium
-46.94%
Assessment
Neutral
Graham's classic formula uses analyst-projected growth to estimate a fair P/E (8.5 + 2g). Our adjusted version replaces that projection with MGP's realized 15.0% 3-year EPS CAGR, capped at 15% — demonstrated performance rather than forecasts, held to a rate companies have historically sustained. MGP actually compounded EPS at 30.9% over three years; the model uses 15%, the highest rate it will extrapolate — of 4,457 company-quarters that grew faster than 200%, none sustained it over the following seven years. MGP trades at a -47% premium to its adjusted intrinsic value of $72.93, suggesting the market is pricing in future growth beyond what historical earnings support. The adjusted fair P/E of 38.5x compares to the current market P/E of 17.5x.

Profitability Trends

Historical profitability ratios tracking how efficiently the company converts revenue into returns for shareholders over time.

Leverage & Solvency Trends

Debt and liquidity metrics showing the company's financial leverage and ability to meet short-term and long-term obligations.

Efficiency & Working Capital Trends

Operating efficiency metrics measuring how quickly the company converts inventory to sales, collects receivables, and manages its cash conversion cycle.

Growth Trends (YoY %)

Year-over-year growth rates for key financial metrics, showing the trajectory of revenue, earnings, and cash flow generation.

Earnings Stability

R-squared of linear regression measuring how predictably revenue, earnings, and margins follow a trend over the trailing 5 years. 1.0 = perfectly predictable; lower values indicate erratic or cyclical behavior.

Monte Carlo Price Simulation

Geometric Brownian Motion with 1,000 antithetic paths over 1 year, seeded from 1518 days of historical volatility. Percentile bands show the range of statistically plausible outcomes — this is a statistical model, not a forecast.

Current Price
$41.64
Median 1Y
$43.96
5th Pctile
$25.48
95th Pctile
$75.83
Ann. Volatility
32.4%
25th–75th percentile 5th–95th percentile Median path Historical
All Ratios & Metrics

Complete fundamental data with up to 20 periods of history, sparkline trends, and current values across 13 categories and 130+ financial metrics.

Profitability
Metric Trend Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Current
ROE 3.8% 3.4% 2.8% 3.1% 3.3% 3.6% 4.2% 3.9% 4.4% 4.5% 4.4% 0.8% 1.7% 2.7% 3.0% 6.5% 6.8% 7.1% 8.3% 9.7% 9.70%
ROA 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.6% 0.6% 0.7% 0.7% 0.8% 0.2% 0.3% 0.5% 0.7% 1.7% 1.8% 1.9% 2.3% 2.9% 2.91%
ROIC 7.8% 8.1% 6.5% 6.9% 7.1% 6.6% 7.4% 6.6% 7.1% 7.3% 7.6% 9.7% 8.8% 8.2% 7.0% 6.5% 6.6% 6.7% -44.6% 6.4% 6.43%
ROCE 3.9% 3.7% 3.5% 3.7% 3.8% 3.9% 4.4% 4.1% 4.6% 4.6% 4.6% 2.8% 3.3% 3.6% 3.9% 6.7% 6.6% 6.5% 6.2% 6.2% 6.20%
Gross Margin 88.8% 89.6% 86.9% 86.9% 85.1% 74.3% 74.0% 81.3% 97.4% 97.4% 97.4% 97.2% 97.0% 97.0% 97.0% 97.0% 97.0% 97.0% 97.0% 97.1% 97.12%
Operating Margin 48.9% 48.9% 37.9% 50.9% 45.6% 47.8% 46.0% 48.4% 60.5% 63.6% 63.8% 65.2% 65.0% 65.2% 65.0% 65.3% 65.0% 65.3% 59.8% 67.1% 67.08%
Net Margin 5.8% 6.0% 4.1% 7.3% 6.0% 6.9% 6.6% 7.4% 9.7% 10.0% 11.5% -23.7% 21.1% 23.0% 21.3% 30.7% 22.6% 25.7% 43.7% 57.7% 57.69%
EBITDA Margin 63.4% 69.3% 60.0% 62.7% 59.5% 53.2% 52.8% 76.7% 93.8% 90.9% 90.9% -6.2% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.3% 1.0% 1.1% 1.1% 1.2% 1.21%
FCF Margin 64.3% 65.2% 63.0% 63.7% 64.3% 59.1% 57.7% -0.6% 6.2% 7.7% 12.3% 89.0% 88.9% 94.5% 96.1% 89.5% 88.0% 85.6% 86.8% 88.8% 88.81%
OCF Margin 64.3% 65.2% 63.0% 63.8% 64.3% 59.1% 57.9% -0.4% 6.3% 7.8% 12.3% 82.5% 82.1% 87.4% 88.8% 89.5% 88.0% 85.6% 86.8% 88.8% 88.81%
ROE 3Y Avg snapshot only 5.47%
ROE 5Y Avg snapshot only 4.55%
ROA 3Y Avg snapshot only 1.63%
ROIC 3Y Avg snapshot only 3.06%
ROIC Economic snapshot only 6.43%
Cash ROA snapshot only 6.77%
Cash ROIC snapshot only 9.15%
CROIC snapshot only 9.15%
NOPAT Margin snapshot only 62.44%
Pretax Margin snapshot only 38.77%
R&D / Revenue snapshot only 0.00%
SGA / Revenue snapshot only 2.27%
SBC / Revenue snapshot only 0.57%
Valuation
Metric Trend Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Current
P/E Ratio 33.49 36.09 49.63 40.81 44.50 36.72 28.04 38.19 34.99 33.81 35.73 141.92 90.19 59.62 53.32 23.75 29.85 30.84 26.67 20.43 17.496
P/S Ratio 2.33 2.50 2.71 2.37 2.60 2.25 1.88 2.57 2.63 2.78 3.40 3.29 4.19 4.47 5.20 5.70 7.28 7.73 8.20 7.69 0.000
P/B Ratio 1.29 1.13 1.28 1.17 1.36 1.33 1.20 1.33 1.37 1.35 1.28 1.04 1.40 1.46 1.56 1.49 1.87 2.00 2.03 1.92 1.994
P/FCF 3.62 3.83 4.30 3.71 4.05 3.81 3.25 -455.94 42.31 36.23 27.73 3.69 4.71 4.73 5.41 6.37 8.28 9.03 9.45 8.66 8.663
P/OCF 3.62 3.83 4.30 3.71 4.04 3.81 3.24 — 41.43 35.86 27.73 3.99 5.10 5.12 5.86 6.37 8.28 9.03 9.45 8.66 8.663
EV/EBITDA 10.47 9.51 11.70 10.90 11.12 12.35 11.45 12.39 11.02 10.10 9.23 8.97 11.14 11.04 12.60 9.84 11.19 11.71 2.50 12.14 12.144
EV/Revenue 6.78 6.31 7.51 6.94 6.96 7.22 6.47 7.49 7.46 7.78 8.08 6.16 7.96 8.36 10.10 11.31 12.69 13.12 2.79 13.39 13.391
EV/EBIT 13.46 12.55 16.19 14.91 15.27 15.92 13.77 15.99 14.89 14.72 14.31 16.67 19.62 18.43 20.08 13.31 15.18 15.95 3.43 16.77 16.775
EV/FCF 10.54 9.68 11.91 10.88 10.82 12.22 11.21 -1328.17 120.03 101.22 65.94 6.92 8.95 8.85 10.51 12.64 14.43 15.32 3.21 15.08 15.078
Earnings Yield 3.0% 2.8% 2.0% 2.5% 2.2% 2.7% 3.6% 2.6% 2.9% 3.0% 2.8% 0.7% 1.1% 1.7% 1.9% 4.2% 3.3% 3.2% 3.7% 4.9% 4.89%
FCF Yield 27.6% 26.1% 23.3% 26.9% 24.7% 26.2% 30.8% -0.2% 2.4% 2.8% 3.6% 27.1% 21.2% 21.1% 18.5% 15.7% 12.1% 11.1% 10.6% 11.5% 11.54%
PEG Ratio snapshot only 0.503
Price/Tangible Book snapshot only 1.918
EV/OCF snapshot only 15.078
EV/Gross Profit snapshot only 13.803
Acquirers Multiple snapshot only 20.830
Shareholder Yield snapshot only 9.04%
Graham Number snapshot only $29.32
Leverage & Solvency
Metric Trend Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Current
Current Ratio 3.18 8.16 1.96 2.15 2.31 0.63 0.58 0.53 0.35 0.77 1.02 5.31 2.22 2.01 2.11 0.63 1.17 1.30 0.12 0.15 0.146
Quick Ratio 3.18 8.16 1.96 2.15 2.31 0.63 0.58 0.53 0.35 0.77 1.02 5.31 2.22 2.01 2.11 0.63 1.17 1.30 0.12 0.15 0.146
Debt/Equity 2.74 2.43 2.42 2.43 2.45 2.96 2.98 2.59 2.55 2.50 1.85 1.53 1.55 1.53 1.71 1.52 1.49 1.50 1.44 1.42 1.423
Net Debt/Equity 2.46 1.73 2.26 2.26 2.27 2.93 2.94 2.55 2.53 2.42 1.77 0.91 1.26 1.27 1.47 1.47 1.39 1.39 -1.34 1.42 1.421
Debt/Assets 0.38 0.39 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.42 0.43 0.43 0.44 0.43 0.39 0.36 0.37 0.36 0.43 0.45 0.44 0.45 0.44 0.43 0.435
Debt/EBITDA 7.67 8.09 8.01 7.73 7.52 8.59 8.24 8.25 7.21 6.69 5.59 7.07 6.47 6.18 7.09 5.04 5.11 5.17 5.23 5.18 5.175
Net Debt/EBITDA 6.87 5.75 7.48 7.18 6.96 8.50 8.13 8.14 7.13 6.49 5.35 4.18 5.28 5.13 6.11 4.88 4.77 4.81 -4.87 5.17 5.167
Interest Coverage 2.07 2.06 1.93 1.97 1.97 2.05 2.19 2.15 2.17 2.14 2.14 1.39 1.53 1.67 1.74 2.66 2.49 2.41 2.39 2.41 2.413
Equity Multiplier 7.15 6.23 6.37 6.38 6.42 6.96 6.99 6.05 5.86 5.75 4.74 4.23 4.24 4.25 4.01 3.39 3.35 3.36 3.30 3.27 3.272
Cash Ratio snapshot only 0.039
Debt Service Coverage snapshot only 3.333
Cash to Debt snapshot only 0.002
FCF to Debt snapshot only 0.156
Defensive Interval snapshot only 11.5 days
Efficiency & Turnover
Metric Trend Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Current
Asset Turnover 0.08 0.07 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.08 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.08 0.077
Inventory Turnover — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — —
Receivables Turnover 171.82 125.07 96.39 229.57 199.35 100.59 93.80 173.29 494.18 156.01 122.00 179.75 16147.32 3560.00 2800.70 — — — — 3203.48 3203.477
Payables Turnover 10.59 7.89 8.52 20.40 11.66 6.24 6.94 8.63 7.80 2.74 1.58 0.25 0.25 0.24 0.29 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.26 0.60 0.597
DSO 2 3 4 2 2 4 4 2 1 2 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.1 days
DIO 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 days
DPO 34 46 43 18 31 58 53 42 47 133 231 1451 1438 1538 1245 1657 1694 1627 1402 612 611.9 days
Cash Conversion Cycle -32 -43 -39 -16 -29 -55 -49 -40 -46 -131 -228 -1449 -1438 -1538 -1245 -1657 -1694 -1627 -1402 -612 -611.8 days
Fixed Asset Turnover snapshot only 2.839
Cash Velocity snapshot only 103.711
Capital Intensity snapshot only 13.121
Growth (YoY)
Metric Trend Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Current
Revenue 5.5% 1.6% 63.8% 22.4% 15.0% 26.9% 30.9% 32.6% 27.6% 7.9% -5.3% -16.1% -19.5% -18.2% -16.5% -12.4% -9.2% -5.7% -1.3% 1.6% 1.58%
Net Income 6.3% 1.9% 18.2% -0.9% -3.4% 12.4% 60.5% 53.9% 64.0% 45.0% 34.6% -71.1% -50.3% -25.5% -14.3% 8.1% 3.8% 2.2% 2.1% 59.3% 59.28%
EPS 6.3% 1.8% -4.0% -19.5% -21.5% -4.1% 60.3% 29.9% 28.0% 10.7% -8.0% -80.3% -65.6% -47.2% -32.3% 7.2% 3.1% 1.6% 1.6% 37.9% 37.92%
FCF 8.3% 1.8% 68.9% 25.6% 15.0% 15.0% 19.9% -1.0% -87.7% -86.0% -79.9% 133.5% 10.5% 9.1% 5.6% -11.9% -10.1% -14.5% -10.9% 0.8% 0.78%
EBITDA 4.2% 1.5% 52.1% 14.9% 11.2% 11.9% 15.3% 25.9% 37.9% 42.2% 46.6% -4.6% -15.1% -19.5% -23.5% 46.5% 44.3% 39.6% 36.8% -2.5% -2.52%
Op. Income 8.3% 1.9% 59.1% 18.1% 4.4% 16.1% 34.9% 34.2% 40.0% 27.2% 16.8% 12.8% 3.3% -1.5% -7.1% -9.8% -8.1% -5.1% -3.3% 0.3% 0.31%
OCF Growth snapshot only 0.78%
Asset Growth snapshot only 2.97%
Equity Growth snapshot only 6.74%
Debt Growth snapshot only 0.08%
Shares Change snapshot only 15.49%
Dividend Growth snapshot only -19.52%
Growth (CAGR)
Metric Trend Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Current
Revenue 3Y — — — — — — — — 1.1% 52.6% 26.6% 10.8% 5.7% 3.9% 1.2% -0.9% -2.3% -5.9% -7.9% -9.3% -9.29%
Revenue 5Y — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — 47.6% 22.4% 10.8% 3.9% 3.92%
EPS 3Y — — — — — — — — 94.0% 43.9% 12.3% -40.9% -29.8% -17.5% -0.0% 28.3% 21.5% 15.6% 17.6% 30.9% 30.90%
EPS 5Y — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — 59.2% 33.0% 20.1% 18.6% 18.58%
Net Income 3Y — — — — — — — — 1.3% 67.8% 36.7% -23.9% -7.6% 6.7% 22.8% 59.2% 57.3% 50.5% 53.1% 61.1% 61.05%
Net Income 5Y — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — 93.7% 61.9% 46.7% 44.8% 44.82%
EBITDA 3Y — — — — — — — — 1.0% 57.6% 37.0% 11.3% 9.2% 8.6% 9.0% 20.7% 19.1% 16.9% 15.4% 10.9% 10.86%
EBITDA 5Y — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — 58.0% 34.5% 21.9% 14.5% 14.53%
Gross Profit 3Y — — — — — — — — 1.1% 51.1% 28.4% 14.2% 8.8% 7.0% 4.3% 2.4% 1.3% -0.8% -1.6% -2.5% -2.55%
Gross Profit 5Y — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — 50.5% 24.5% 12.8% 5.8% 5.76%
Op. Income 3Y — — — — — — — — 1.4% 62.7% 35.8% 21.4% 14.7% 13.3% 13.5% 11.0% 9.9% 5.9% 1.6% 0.7% 0.69%
Op. Income 5Y — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — 66.8% 32.1% 17.6% 10.1% 10.10%
FCF 3Y — — — — — — — — 9.6% -23.1% -25.9% 25.0% 17.7% 17.6% 16.4% 11.0% 8.5% 6.5% 5.5% — —
FCF 5Y — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — 68.6% 31.3% 18.9% 11.6% 11.62%
OCF 3Y — — — — — — — — -4.7% -26.6% -28.1% 19.1% 14.7% 14.6% 13.4% 11.0% 8.4% 6.5% 5.4% — —
OCF 5Y — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — 54.4% 27.4% 16.7% 10.1% 10.15%
Assets 3Y — — — — — — — — 13.3% 7.8% 7.8% 8.1% 4.8% 1.9% 0.8% -0.8% -0.4% -2.8% -1.6% -5.6% -5.63%
Assets 5Y — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — 4.4% 1.2% 1.9% 1.9% 1.86%
Equity 3Y — — — — — — — — 15.3% 15.6% 23.5% 28.6% 24.9% 15.8% 17.6% 22.5% 23.7% 23.8% 26.3% 15.8% 15.84%
Book Value 3Y — — — — — — — — -0.9% -0.9% 1.5% -0.1% -5.1% -10.5% -4.3% -1.3% -4.5% -4.9% -2.9% -5.8% -5.85%
Dividend 3Y — — — — — — — — -9.6% -9.8% -13.3% -17.0% -19.5% -18.8% -15.3% -18.1% -23.6% -24.9% -25.7% -20.7% -20.68%
Growth Quality
Metric Trend Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Current
Revenue Stability — — — — 0.86 0.95 1.00 0.97 0.89 0.88 0.81 0.54 0.32 0.14 0.00 0.05 0.50 0.39 0.22 0.02 0.023
Earnings Stability — — — — 0.72 0.87 0.89 0.74 0.87 0.94 0.95 0.11 0.33 0.65 0.81 0.38 0.59 0.68 0.67 0.64 0.644
Margin Stability — — — — 0.99 0.96 0.94 0.93 0.96 0.97 0.93 0.91 0.92 0.93 0.92 0.90 0.92 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.909
Rev. Growth Consistency 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.50 0.500
Earn. Growth Consistency 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.00 0.00 1.00 1.00 0.50 0.50 1.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 1.00 1.000
FCF Positive Streak 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Earnings Persistence — — — — 0.99 0.95 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.82 0.86 0.50 0.50 0.90 0.94 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.500
Earnings Smoothness 0.00 0.03 0.83 0.99 0.97 0.88 0.54 0.58 0.52 0.63 0.71 0.00 0.33 0.71 0.85 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.54 0.543
ROE Trend — — — — 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 -0.02 -0.02 -0.01 -0.01 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.04 0.06 0.059
Gross Margin Trend — — — — -0.02 -0.06 -0.09 -0.10 -0.07 0.01 0.09 0.14 0.13 0.13 0.11 0.09 0.08 0.05 0.02 -0.00 -0.001
FCF Margin Trend — — — — 0.10 -0.04 -0.04 -0.64 -0.58 -0.54 -0.48 0.57 0.54 0.61 0.61 0.45 0.40 0.35 0.33 -0.00 -0.005
Sustainable Growth Rate -17.6% -22.1% -23.2% -24.3% -25.5% -23.8% -24.3% -21.4% -22.5% -23.4% -21.7% -22.3% -23.6% -23.1% -20.3% -14.0% -13.4% -13.0% -10.5% -8.2% -8.21%
Internal Growth Rate — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — —
Cash Flow Quality
Metric Trend Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Current
OCF/Net Income 9.25 9.42 11.55 11.00 11.00 9.65 8.65 -0.06 0.84 0.94 1.29 35.60 17.69 11.66 9.10 3.73 3.61 3.41 2.82 2.36 2.358
FCF/OCF 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.31 0.98 0.99 1.00 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000
FCF/Net Income snapshot only 2.358
OCF/EBITDA snapshot only 0.805
CapEx/Revenue 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 6.5% 6.8% 7.0% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.00%
CapEx/Depreciation snapshot only 0.000
Accruals Ratio -0.05 -0.04 -0.04 -0.05 -0.05 -0.05 -0.05 0.01 0.00 0.00 -0.00 -0.06 -0.06 -0.06 -0.06 -0.05 -0.05 -0.05 -0.04 -0.04 -0.040
Sloan Accruals snapshot only -0.030
Cash Flow Adequacy snapshot only 1.277
Earnings Quality Score snapshot only 1.000
Dividends & Buybacks
Metric Trend Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Current
Dividend Yield 16.7% 20.6% 18.6% 21.4% 19.4% 20.9% 24.2% 17.0% 17.5% 18.2% 16.5% 19.3% 16.2% 16.1% 14.6% 13.3% 10.0% 9.2% 8.5% 9.0% 5.02%
Dividend/Share $4.88 $6.23 $5.42 $5.67 $5.91 $6.17 $6.38 $5.48 $5.36 $5.48 $5.13 $4.56 $4.42 $4.50 $4.57 $4.35 $3.65 $3.53 $3.47 $3.50 $2.09
Payout Ratio 5.6% 7.4% 9.2% 8.7% 8.6% 7.7% 6.8% 6.5% 6.1% 6.2% 5.9% 27.3% 14.6% 9.6% 7.8% 3.2% 3.0% 2.8% 2.3% 1.8% 1.85%
FCF Payout Ratio 60.6% 78.9% 79.9% 79.3% 78.5% 79.7% 78.5% — 7.4% 6.6% 4.6% 71.2% 76.4% 76.1% 79.0% 84.9% 82.4% 83.1% 80.2% 78.3% 78.31%
Total Payout Ratio 5.6% 7.4% 9.2% 8.7% 8.6% 7.7% 6.8% 6.5% 6.1% 19.7% 18.3% 81.7% 42.8% 9.6% 16.8% 13.2% 12.9% 12.5% 7.2% 1.8% 1.85%
Div. Increase Streak 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0
Chowder Number — — 3.28 1.35 0.68 0.37 0.42 0.31 0.34 0.35 0.34 0.41 0.35 0.32 0.27 0.18 0.07 0.03 -0.01 0.02 0.020
Buyback Yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 39.9% 34.7% 38.3% 31.2% 0.0% 17.0% 42.4% 33.2% 31.3% 18.4% 0.0% 0.00%
Net Buyback Yield 0.0% -22.0% -19.5% -21.4% -18.7% 0.0% 0.0% -21.0% -21.9% 14.9% -4.1% -2.9% -1.2% -29.2% 4.3% 27.2% 19.2% 18.1% 6.1% -1.9% -1.92%
Total Shareholder Return 16.7% -1.4% -0.9% -0.1% 0.7% 20.9% 24.2% -4.1% -4.4% 33.2% 12.5% 16.4% 15.0% -13.1% 18.8% 40.5% 29.2% 27.3% 14.6% 7.1% 7.12%
DuPont Factors
Metric Trend Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Current
Tax Burden (NI/EBT) 0.27 0.27 0.24 0.25 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.27 0.28 0.29 0.38 0.17 0.43 0.88 0.89 0.94 0.95 0.95 0.96 0.97 0.971
Interest Burden (EBT/EBIT) 0.52 0.52 0.48 0.49 0.49 0.51 0.54 0.54 0.54 0.53 0.45 0.37 0.27 0.19 0.22 0.30 0.31 0.32 0.39 0.49 0.486
EBIT Margin 0.50 0.50 0.46 0.47 0.46 0.45 0.47 0.47 0.50 0.53 0.56 0.37 0.41 0.45 0.50 0.85 0.84 0.82 0.81 0.80 0.798
Asset Turnover 0.08 0.07 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.08 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.08 0.077
Equity Multiplier 6.67 6.62 6.71 6.73 6.75 6.59 6.68 6.20 6.11 6.27 5.60 5.00 4.96 4.93 4.37 3.80 3.76 3.77 3.63 3.33 3.330
Per Share
Metric Trend Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Current
EPS (Diluted TTM) $0.87 $0.84 $0.59 $0.65 $0.68 $0.80 $0.94 $0.84 $0.88 $0.89 $0.87 $0.17 $0.30 $0.47 $0.59 $1.37 $1.23 $1.24 $1.53 $1.89 $1.89
Book Value/Share $22.69 $26.71 $22.84 $22.71 $22.48 $22.25 $21.99 $24.17 $22.29 $22.23 $24.15 $22.85 $19.41 $19.12 $20.04 $21.83 $19.58 $19.15 $20.11 $20.17 $35.45
Tangible Book/Share $22.69 $26.71 $22.84 $22.71 $22.48 $18.46 $18.21 $20.99 $22.29 $22.23 $24.15 $22.85 $19.41 $19.12 $20.04 $21.83 $19.58 $19.15 $20.11 $20.17 $20.17
Revenue/Share $12.53 $12.10 $10.77 $11.21 $11.71 $13.10 $14.08 $12.55 $11.66 $10.79 $9.11 $7.20 $6.50 $6.26 $6.01 $5.72 $5.03 $4.95 $4.98 $5.03 $5.17
FCF/Share $8.06 $7.89 $6.79 $7.15 $7.53 $7.74 $8.13 $-0.07 $0.72 $0.83 $1.12 $6.41 $5.78 $5.91 $5.78 $5.12 $4.42 $4.24 $4.32 $4.47 $4.49
OCF/Share $8.06 $7.89 $6.79 $7.15 $7.53 $7.75 $8.15 $-0.05 $0.74 $0.84 $1.12 $5.94 $5.34 $5.47 $5.34 $5.12 $4.42 $4.24 $4.32 $4.47 $4.49
Cash/Share $6.51 $18.74 $3.65 $3.94 $4.07 $0.70 $0.84 $0.88 $0.59 $1.65 $1.94 $14.30 $5.51 $4.97 $4.75 $1.05 $1.93 $2.04 $55.98 $0.05 $58.13
EBITDA/Share $8.11 $8.02 $6.91 $7.14 $7.33 $7.66 $7.95 $7.58 $7.89 $8.31 $7.98 $4.95 $4.64 $4.74 $4.82 $6.57 $5.71 $5.55 $5.54 $5.55 $5.55
Debt/Share $62.25 $64.86 $55.32 $55.18 $55.11 $65.79 $65.54 $62.57 $56.89 $55.55 $44.61 $34.99 $30.05 $29.28 $34.22 $33.12 $29.15 $28.70 $29.01 $28.70 $28.70
Net Debt/Share $55.73 $46.12 $51.67 $51.24 $51.04 $65.10 $64.70 $61.70 $56.30 $53.90 $42.67 $20.69 $24.53 $24.31 $29.47 $32.07 $27.22 $26.66 $-26.97 $28.66 $28.66
Academic Models
Metric Trend Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Current
Altman Z-Score — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — 0.914
Altman Z-Prime snapshot only 1.409
Piotroski F-Score 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 3 5 6 7 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 7 7
Beneish M-Score -2.38 -2.65 -2.87 -3.01 -2.61 -1.70 -1.57 0.04 -3.40 -3.68 -3.68 -4.03 -3.71 -3.71 -3.70 -2.62 -2.74 -2.72 -2.72 -2.60 -2.602
Ohlson O-Score snapshot only -7.709
ROIC (Greenblatt) snapshot only 5.74%
Net-Net WC snapshot only $-31.56
EVA snapshot only $-273485241.32
Credit
Metric Trend Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Current
Credit Rating snapshot only B+
Credit Score 37.37 37.14 28.75 34.19 33.10 22.10 21.65 17.52 18.20 23.36 29.89 38.27 40.64 44.39 40.81 30.25 38.30 41.35 27.92 30.78 30.781
Credit Grade snapshot only 14
Credit Trend snapshot only 0.529
Implied Spread (bps) snapshot only 650.000
Industry Credit Rank snapshot only 28
Sector Credit Rank snapshot only 25

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