— Know what they know.
Not Investment Advice

MMP NYSE

Magellan Midstream Partners, L.P.
1W: +1.5% 1M: +4.8% 3M: +17.9% 1Y: +49.2% 3Y: +141.5% 5Y: +50.1%
$69.00
Last traded 2023-09-22 — delisted
NYSE · Energy · Oil & Gas Midstream · $13.9B mcap · 201M float · 0.932% daily turnover

Edge Score

Quantitative competitive moat analysis scoring five pillars of durable advantage — cost leadership, brand intangibles, switching costs, network effects, and efficient scale — using industry percentile rankings on a 0–100 scale.

WEAK EDGE
41.4 / 100
NoneWeakNarrowWide
Primary source: Cost Advantage  ·  ROIC: 23.5%
Cost Advantage ★
49
Intangibles
39
Switching Cost
44
Network Effect
32
Scale
40
The Edge Score quantifies a company's competitive moat using five pillars: Cost Advantage (20%, operating margin and SG&A efficiency vs industry peers), Intangible Assets (25%, gross margin premium, R&D intensity, brand pricing power), Switching Costs (25%, revenue stability, earnings consistency, customer retention proxied by operating leverage), Network Effects (15%, revenue growth with expanding margins, market share dominance), and Efficient Scale (15%, market concentration, ROIC sustainability). Each pillar is scored 0–100 using industry percentile rankings, then weighted into a composite. Wide ≥ 70, Narrow ≥ 55, Weak ≥ 40, None < 40. MMP shows a Weak competitive edge (41.4/100) — limited structural advantages that may face competitive pressure. The primary source of advantage is Cost Advantage. ROIC of 23.5% confirms the company is generating returns well above its cost of capital — a hallmark of durable competitive advantages.

Analyst Insights

Wall Street analyst consensus based on price targets and buy/sell/hold recommendations from institutional research coverage over the trailing 12 months.

Analyst Price Targets
Analyst Recommendations
Strong Buy: 0Buy: 13Hold: 14Sell: 5Strong Sell: 0
Rating Summary
ConsensusHold
Avg Target$—
Analysts0
Price Target Change History
DateFirmAnalystOldNewChangeUpside @ CallStock@Call
2023-05-17 RBC Capital Elvira Scotto Initiated $66 — +6.4% $62.02
2023-02-07 Citigroup — $56 $57 +1 +7.7% $52.95
2023-02-07 Wells Fargo — $56 $58 +2 +10.0% $52.71
2023-02-03 Raymond James — $51 $58 +7 +6.3% $54.56
2023-01-09 Morgan Stanley — $54 $56 +2 +8.3% $51.71
2022-12-09 Citigroup — $51 $56 +5 +12.6% $49.75
2022-05-31 Wells Fargo Michael Blum Initiated $56 — +7.7% $51.98
2022-04-26 Morgan Stanley — Initiated $54 — +7.1% $50.44
2021-11-02 Citigroup Timm Schneider Initiated $51 — +4.7% $48.73
2021-10-17 Raymond James Justin Jenkins Initiated $51 — +6.4% $47.91
2021-07-05 TD Securities Linda Ezergailis Initiated $50 — +9.0% $45.88
2021-06-10 Wolfe Research Steve Fleishman Initiated $50 — +0.2% $49.88
2021-05-26 Neuberger Berman Mirek Zak Initiated $56 — +21.4% $46.11
2021-04-29 Truist Financial Tristan Richardson Initiated $49 — +14.1% $42.96

InsiderStreet Scorecard

Proprietary multi-factor scorecard rating companies across seven fundamental dimensions — profitability, balance sheet strength, earnings quality, growth, value, momentum, and safety — each scored 0–100.

★ ★ ★ ★ ★ 82 Grade A+
Profitability
91
Balance Sheet
32
Earnings Quality
82
Growth
95
Value
65
Momentum
96
Safety
50
Cash Flow
86
The InsiderStreet Scorecard rates companies across eight dimensions: Profitability (margins, ROA, ROE), Balance Sheet (leverage, liquidity, coverage), Earnings Quality (accruals, cash conversion), Growth (revenue and earnings trajectory), Value (P/E, P/B, earnings yield, Graham criteria), Momentum (revenue and earnings acceleration), Safety (Altman Z-Score risk adjustment), and Cash Flow (operating cash flow quality, FCF conversion, cash coverage). The overall score blends 35% quality, 35% value, and 30% momentum, with a penalty for distress-zone Altman scores. MMP scores highest in Momentum (96/100) and lowest in Balance Sheet (32/100). An overall grade of A+ places MMP among the highest-quality companies in its peer group.

Risk & Quality Signals

Academic financial models used by institutional investors to assess bankruptcy risk, earnings manipulation, financial strength, and credit quality.

Altman Z-Score
2.33
Grey Zone
Piotroski F-Score
8/9
✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
Beneish M-Score
-2.75
Unlikely Manipulator
Ohlson O-Score
-6.69
Bankruptcy prob: 0.1%
Low Risk
Credit Rating
BBB-
Score: 53.1/100
Trend: Improving
Earnings Quality
75/100
OCF/NI: 1.46x
Accruals: -6.1%
The Altman Z-Score (1968) combines five ratios — working capital, retained earnings, EBIT, market value of equity, and sales, all relative to total assets or liabilities — into a single bankruptcy predictor. MMP scores 2.33, placing it in the Grey Zone (safe > 2.99, distress < 1.81). Financial distress is possible and warrants monitoring. The Piotroski F-Score (2000) is a 9-point binary checklist — four profitability tests (positive ROA, positive cash flow, improving ROA, cash flow exceeding net income), three leverage tests (declining debt ratio, improving current ratio, no share dilution), and two efficiency tests (improving gross margin, improving asset turnover). Each pass scores 1 point. MMP scores 8/9, signaling strong financial health across all three dimensions. The Beneish M-Score (1999) is an 8-variable model that detects earnings manipulation by comparing year-over-year changes in receivables, gross margins, asset quality, sales growth, depreciation, SG&A, leverage, and accruals. Scores above −1.78 statistically resemble past manipulators. MMP's score of -2.75 falls below this threshold, suggesting earnings are unlikely to be manipulated. The Ohlson O-Score (1980) is a 9-variable logistic regression that estimates bankruptcy probability using firm size, leverage, working capital, current ratio, profitability (ROA), cash flow coverage, negative equity flag, consecutive losses flag, and earnings trajectory. The raw score is converted to a probability via logistic transformation. MMP's implied 0.1% bankruptcy probability is well within safe territory. Our Credit Rating model scores companies on five weighted components — solvency (30%), earning power (25%), leverage (20%), liquidity (15%), and cash flow quality (10%) — then blends the absolute score with sector and industry peer rankings. For companies with large buyback programs, equity is adjusted by adding back cumulative 5-year repurchases (capped at 80% of FCF generated) to avoid penalizing shareholder-friendly capital allocation. MMP receives an estimated rating of BBB- (score: 53.1/100), with a improving trend. The Earnings Quality score measures how well reported earnings are backed by real cash. It evaluates the operating cash flow to net income ratio (OCF/NI ≥ 1.0 means every dollar of earnings is cash-backed) and the accruals ratio (the gap between earnings and cash flow relative to assets — lower is better). MMP's score of 75/100 is high — cash flows strongly support reported earnings.

Valuation

Key valuation multiples comparing the stock's market price to its earnings, revenue, book value, and cash flows. Lower multiples may indicate relative undervaluation versus peers.

P/E
13.94x
PEG
0.46x
P/S
4.36x
P/B
-153.87x
P/FCF
9.47x
P/OCF
8.30x
EV/EBITDA
12.77x
EV/Revenue
5.00x
EV/EBIT
12.57x
EV/FCF
13.23x
Earnings Yield
8.27%
FCF Yield
10.56%
Shareholder Yield
9.41%
Graham Number
—
Equity-based multiples (P/E, P/B, P/FCF) compare the stock price to per-share fundamentals and are affected by capital structure. Enterprise value multiples (EV/EBITDA, EV/Revenue, EV/FCF) strip out debt and cash, making them more useful for cross-company comparisons regardless of how companies are financed. The Graham Number — √(22.5 × EPS × Book Value) — is Benjamin Graham's formula for the maximum price a defensive investor should pay. At 13.9x earnings, MMP trades at a reasonable valuation. An earnings yield of 8.3% exceeds typical risk-free rates, suggesting equities are being compensated for risk.

DuPont Decomposition (5-Factor)

The 5-factor DuPont framework breaks Return on Equity into its component drivers — tax efficiency, interest burden, operating profitability, asset utilization, and financial leverage — to reveal what truly drives shareholder returns.

Tax Burden
0.998
NI / EBT
×
Interest Burden
0.745
EBT / EBIT
×
EBIT Margin
0.398
EBIT / Rev
×
Asset Turnover
0.452
Rev / Assets
×
Equity Multiplier
46.775
Assets / Equity
=
ROE
624.6%
The 5-factor DuPont identity decomposes ROE as: Tax Burden × Interest Burden × EBIT Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier = ROE. This reveals whether returns are driven by operating performance, financial leverage, or tax efficiency — three very different sources of profitability. MMP's ROE of 624.6% is driven by financial leverage (equity multiplier: 46.77x). Note: high leverage means ROE is amplified by debt rather than operational performance. A tax burden ratio of 1.00 indicates minimal tax leakage — the company retains over 90% of pre-tax earnings.

Graham-Dodd Adjusted Valuation

Our adaptation of Graham's growth formula (Fair P/E = 8.5 + 2g) from The Intelligent Investor. The classic version relies on analyst growth projections, which can be unreliable. This adjusted model substitutes the company's realized 3-year EPS CAGR — a backward-looking, verifiable measure of actual earnings power — grounding the valuation in demonstrated performance rather than forecasts.

Two adjustments we make, and why. Growth is capped at 15%. Graham defined g as expected growth over the next seven to ten years, not last year's rate. Across US companies since 1994 the median realized 7-year EPS growth is 5–8% regardless of how fast a company grew beforehand, and of 4,457 company-quarters that grew faster than 200%, none sustained it. Uncapped, the formula assigned fair multiples in the hundreds to companies that had never held that rate — and scored worse than simply reading the P/E. Capped, it carries real information. The verdict has three states, not two. Tested over 377,249 stock-months, this ratio only separates outcomes at its extremes: below 0.25 beat the universe by 1.3 points a year, above 3.0 lagged by 2.7, and everything in between sat inside a one-point band. Rather than call two-thirds of the market "undervalued" on a threshold of 1.0, we say Neutral where the model cannot tell — which is most of the time.

Adj. Growth Rate
5.21%
Fair P/E
18.92x
Intrinsic Value
$95.94
Price/Value
0.64x
Margin of Safety
36.08%
Premium
-36.08%
Assessment
Neutral
Graham's classic formula uses analyst-projected growth to estimate a fair P/E (8.5 + 2g). Our adjusted version replaces that projection with MMP's realized 5.2% 3-year EPS CAGR, capped at 15% — demonstrated performance rather than forecasts, held to a rate companies have historically sustained. MMP trades at a -36% premium to its adjusted intrinsic value of $95.94, suggesting the market is pricing in future growth beyond what historical earnings support. The adjusted fair P/E of 18.9x compares to the current market P/E of 13.9x.

Profitability Trends

Historical profitability ratios tracking how efficiently the company converts revenue into returns for shareholders over time.

Leverage & Solvency Trends

Debt and liquidity metrics showing the company's financial leverage and ability to meet short-term and long-term obligations.

Efficiency & Working Capital Trends

Operating efficiency metrics measuring how quickly the company converts inventory to sales, collects receivables, and manages its cash conversion cycle.

Growth Trends (YoY %)

Year-over-year growth rates for key financial metrics, showing the trajectory of revenue, earnings, and cash flow generation.

Earnings Stability

R-squared of linear regression measuring how predictably revenue, earnings, and margins follow a trend over the trailing 5 years. 1.0 = perfectly predictable; lower values indicate erratic or cyclical behavior.

Monte Carlo Price Simulation

Geometric Brownian Motion with 1,000 antithetic paths over 1 year, seeded from 1800 days of historical volatility. Percentile bands show the range of statistically plausible outcomes — this is a statistical model, not a forecast.

Current Price
$69.00
Median 1Y
$70.80
5th Pctile
$45.83
95th Pctile
$109.24
Ann. Volatility
27.7%
25th–75th percentile 5th–95th percentile Median path Historical
All Ratios & Metrics

Complete fundamental data with up to 20 periods of history, sparkline trends, and current values across 13 categories and 130+ financial metrics.

Profitability
Metric Trend Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Q2'23 Current
ROE -11.8% 1.1% -10.4% -10.4% -7.9% 82.3% -7.5% -6.5% -5.9% -4.7% -4.3% -5.4% -5.7% -5.8% -5.6% 6.4% -6.1% -6.9% 1.1% 6.2% 6.25%
ROA 17.1% 17.6% 17.5% 17.6% 13.1% 12.6% 13.7% 12.2% 11.1% 9.8% 9.1% 10.9% 11.4% 12.1% 11.3% 10.3% 11.6% 11.0% 12.4% 13.4% 13.35%
ROIC 28.4% 17.8% 27.0% 27.1% 26.8% 25.8% 28.2% 24.8% 23.2% 20.8% 19.6% 22.1% 20.8% 21.8% 19.8% 18.4% 22.8% 19.3% 15.6% 23.5% 23.54%
ROCE 21.7% 21.1% 20.7% 20.7% 15.6% 17.0% 19.8% 17.1% 16.3% 14.1% 13.2% 14.9% 15.6% 15.7% 14.7% 14.3% 15.8% 17.4% 19.1% 19.9% 19.94%
Gross Margin 72.3% 61.4% 63.3% 69.3% 74.8% 65.8% 60.0% 76.3% 71.9% 68.9% 63.2% 65.7% 67.6% 56.6% 55.4% 56.7% 62.7% 48.5% 56.8% 59.8% 59.76%
Operating Margin 46.3% 41.7% 38.8% 42.9% 48.8% 45.7% 41.7% 43.6% 44.6% 40.9% 42.3% 40.8% 43.4% 35.9% 32.6% 30.4% 45.2% 14.6% 38.1% 33.6% 33.63%
Net Margin 93.2% 36.3% 33.0% 36.2% 41.6% 38.7% 36.7% 29.1% 35.4% 31.4% 33.5% 42.9% 37.0% 30.1% 24.5% 23.1% 37.7% 21.7% 31.5% 27.2% 27.21%
EBITDA Margin 55.0% 41.5% 52.1% 51.8% 57.5% 67.3% 51.5% 56.0% 56.4% 57.3% 50.9% 56.7% 53.2% 35.6% 41.1% 37.8% 49.5% 28.3% 38.2% 40.3% 40.33%
FCF Margin 25.2% 28.3% 22.4% 19.0% 18.1% 13.8% 20.4% 21.4% 24.9% 27.5% 28.9% 36.9% 38.2% 37.9% 32.2% 28.6% 29.7% 30.2% 35.9% 37.8% 37.76%
OCF Margin 44.7% 47.9% 46.2% 48.0% 49.5% 48.4% 52.0% 49.8% 48.0% 45.6% 41.8% 45.5% 45.1% 43.3% 38.0% 34.4% 35.1% 35.7% 41.0% 43.1% 43.05%
ROA 3Y Avg snapshot only 11.65%
ROIC 3Y Avg snapshot only 19.73%
ROIC Economic snapshot only 23.26%
Cash ROA snapshot only 19.66%
Cash ROIC snapshot only 30.87%
CROIC snapshot only 27.07%
NOPAT Margin snapshot only 32.83%
Pretax Margin snapshot only 29.62%
R&D / Revenue snapshot only 0.00%
SGA / Revenue snapshot only 7.35%
SBC / Revenue snapshot only 0.86%
Valuation
Metric Trend Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Q2'23 Current
P/E Ratio 8.24 6.66 7.20 7.51 10.32 10.24 5.57 7.50 6.50 9.29 10.57 10.16 9.24 8.83 10.05 11.11 9.94 11.34 10.99 12.10 13.939
P/S Ratio 3.93 3.14 3.45 3.63 3.79 3.83 2.13 2.79 2.32 3.12 3.44 3.65 3.36 3.14 3.35 3.16 2.91 3.06 3.15 3.57 4.357
P/B Ratio -87.63 3.36 -77.95 -75.50 -73.15 -64.53 -36.11 -44.44 -36.62 -41.41 -43.93 -54.87 -52.43 -55.95 -60.89 21.71 -64.82 -104.34 5.78 -132.63 -153.872
P/FCF 15.62 11.10 15.40 19.09 21.01 27.73 10.41 13.02 9.31 11.36 11.91 9.88 8.77 8.28 10.43 11.04 9.80 10.14 8.77 9.47 9.467
P/OCF 8.79 6.57 7.48 7.57 7.67 7.92 4.09 5.60 4.83 6.85 8.24 8.02 7.44 7.25 8.81 9.19 8.28 8.58 7.67 8.30 8.303
EV/EBITDA 11.29 9.62 10.33 10.61 10.89 9.75 6.61 8.01 7.36 9.53 10.35 10.16 9.97 10.43 11.59 11.92 11.03 11.94 12.08 12.77 12.766
EV/Revenue 5.47 4.58 5.05 5.24 5.45 5.60 3.77 4.66 4.27 5.24 5.69 5.61 5.43 5.04 5.33 4.93 4.54 4.67 4.65 5.00 4.996
EV/EBIT 10.28 8.67 9.38 9.72 12.94 11.56 7.79 9.52 8.91 11.83 12.93 12.34 11.99 12.07 13.50 14.17 12.77 12.30 11.90 12.57 12.566
EV/FCF 21.73 16.16 22.53 27.58 30.18 40.50 18.44 21.78 17.16 19.04 19.70 15.21 14.20 13.30 16.57 17.23 15.32 15.49 12.98 13.23 13.233
Earnings Yield 12.1% 15.0% 13.9% 13.3% 9.7% 9.8% 18.0% 13.3% 15.4% 10.8% 9.5% 9.8% 10.8% 11.3% 9.9% 9.0% 10.1% 8.8% 9.1% 8.3% 8.27%
FCF Yield 6.4% 9.0% 6.5% 5.2% 4.8% 3.6% 9.6% 7.7% 10.7% 8.8% 8.4% 10.1% 11.4% 12.1% 9.6% 9.1% 10.2% 9.9% 11.4% 10.6% 10.56%
PEG Ratio snapshot only 0.464
EV/OCF snapshot only 11.605
EV/Gross Profit snapshot only 8.769
Acquirers Multiple snapshot only 15.158
Shareholder Yield snapshot only 9.41%
Leverage & Solvency
Metric Trend Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Q2'23 Current
Current Ratio 0.60 0.96 0.70 0.66 0.83 0.69 0.37 0.61 0.64 0.73 0.85 1.59 1.22 1.24 1.50 0.97 1.00 0.98 0.97 1.08 1.083
Quick Ratio 0.44 0.68 0.39 0.38 0.53 0.41 0.31 0.39 0.40 0.43 0.47 1.25 0.88 0.83 1.01 0.49 0.51 0.49 0.44 0.60 0.598
Debt/Equity -36.14 1.62 -36.21 -33.59 -32.88 -30.09 -28.70 -29.91 -30.92 -28.08 -28.74 -31.12 -32.48 -33.95 -35.88 12.20 -36.57 -54.98 2.77 -54.12 -54.122
Net Debt/Equity — 1.53 — — — — — — — — — — — — — 12.18 — — 2.77 — —
Debt/Assets 0.56 0.55 0.57 0.57 0.58 0.58 0.60 0.61 0.62 0.63 0.63 0.62 0.66 0.66 0.68 0.66 0.66 0.67 0.68 0.67 0.666
Debt/EBITDA 3.35 3.17 3.28 3.27 3.41 3.11 2.97 3.22 3.37 3.86 4.09 3.74 3.82 3.94 4.30 4.29 3.98 4.12 3.92 3.73 3.727
Net Debt/EBITDA 3.17 3.01 3.27 3.27 3.31 3.07 2.88 3.22 3.37 3.85 4.09 3.56 3.81 3.94 4.30 4.29 3.97 4.12 3.91 3.63 3.633
Interest Coverage 6.79 7.33 7.18 7.52 6.03 6.55 7.11 6.02 5.63 4.83 4.44 5.17 5.14 5.10 4.83 4.45 4.92 5.33 5.82 6.10 6.103
Equity Multiplier -64.26 2.93 -63.81 -58.75 -56.73 -52.06 -48.21 -48.94 -49.85 -44.75 -45.66 -49.91 -49.49 -51.81 -53.05 18.40 -55.34 -82.08 4.09 -81.25 -81.248
Cash Ratio snapshot only 0.189
Debt Service Coverage snapshot only 6.007
Cash to Debt snapshot only 0.025
FCF to Debt snapshot only 0.259
Defensive Interval snapshot only 144.9 days
Efficiency & Turnover
Metric Trend Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Q2'23 Current
Asset Turnover 0.36 0.37 0.36 0.36 0.36 0.34 0.36 0.33 0.31 0.29 0.28 0.30 0.31 0.34 0.34 0.36 0.40 0.41 0.43 0.45 0.452
Inventory Turnover 5.06 5.27 4.85 5.37 4.91 4.68 7.12 5.81 5.04 4.39 4.95 4.91 4.87 4.57 4.16 4.40 4.62 4.43 4.68 4.55 4.548
Receivables Turnover 17.34 20.01 18.76 19.31 18.07 19.59 20.50 19.09 17.75 16.43 15.72 17.55 16.67 17.49 16.19 16.50 16.09 14.74 18.83 18.14 18.141
Payables Turnover 6.83 7.96 5.89 6.28 5.52 5.97 5.56 5.62 5.11 6.15 5.62 6.75 6.76 9.79 10.82 9.18 10.02 12.97 13.22 10.84 10.842
DSO 21 18 19 19 20 19 18 19 21 22 23 21 22 21 23 22 23 25 19 20 20.1 days
DIO 72 69 75 68 74 78 51 63 72 83 74 74 75 80 88 83 79 82 78 80 80.2 days
DPO 53 46 62 58 66 61 66 65 71 59 65 54 54 37 34 40 36 28 28 34 33.7 days
Cash Conversion Cycle 40 42 33 29 28 36 3 17 22 46 32 41 43 63 77 65 65 79 70 67 66.7 days
Fixed Asset Turnover snapshot only 0.588
Operating Cycle snapshot only 100.4 days
Cash Velocity snapshot only 27.134
Capital Intensity snapshot only 2.190
Growth (YoY)
Metric Trend Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Q2'23 Current
Revenue 7.5% 12.7% 9.1% 10.3% 8.3% -3.5% 3.8% -6.8% -9.5% -11.0% -20.0% -5.3% -1.6% 13.8% 20.4% 16.5% 24.0% 15.8% 22.3% 19.7% 19.66%
Net Income 48.9% 53.4% 55.1% 59.0% -16.6% -23.5% -17.3% -28.4% -12.3% -20.0% -31.8% -8.5% 0.3% 20.2% 23.4% -7.8% -0.1% -12.0% 5.0% 24.4% 24.41%
EPS 48.7% 53.2% 55.0% 58.8% -16.7% -23.5% -16.9% -27.3% -10.9% -18.1% -30.6% -7.5% 3.3% 25.7% 29.6% -2.9% 5.2% -8.6% 9.6% 29.7% 29.68%
FCF 21.7% 45.6% 2.9% -10.7% -22.3% -52.9% -5.4% 4.9% 24.6% 77.0% 13.1% 63.1% 51.3% 56.9% 34.0% -9.7% -3.8% -7.8% 36.4% 57.9% 57.88%
EBITDA 9.6% 12.5% 13.7% 16.2% 11.8% 16.5% 21.0% 9.7% 4.8% -14.9% -22.8% -10.2% -7.5% 0.1% 0.7% -12.8% -6.2% -6.2% 2.5% 13.3% 13.25%
Op. Income 10.0% 13.5% 10.8% 13.6% 9.1% 0.8% 10.3% -1.3% -7.7% -14.1% -23.3% -11.2% -6.0% 7.8% 7.0% -2.3% 7.8% -11.9% 3.6% 11.7% 11.65%
OCF Growth snapshot only 49.92%
Asset Growth snapshot only -2.09%
Equity Growth snapshot only -1.22%
Debt Growth snapshot only -1.62%
Shares Change snapshot only -4.06%
Dividend Growth snapshot only 0.30%
Growth (CAGR)
Metric Trend Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Q2'23 Current
Revenue 3Y 5.3% 9.4% 8.8% 9.0% 9.7% 7.3% 7.4% 2.8% 1.8% -1.1% -3.2% -0.9% -1.2% -0.8% -0.0% 0.9% 3.3% 5.5% 5.6% 9.7% 9.68%
Revenue 5Y 7.6% 8.3% 5.9% 5.8% 5.2% 3.4% 5.5% 3.7% 2.8% 2.4% 1.3% 2.7% 3.3% 4.6% 3.6% 3.7% 5.2% 5.0% 5.9% 6.3% 6.28%
EPS 3Y 13.2% 17.5% 16.3% 17.0% 9.5% 8.2% 10.5% 5.7% 3.3% -1.4% -3.7% 2.2% -8.5% -7.6% -9.3% -13.3% -1.1% -2.0% -0.5% 5.2% 5.21%
EPS 5Y 18.0% 17.9% 13.2% 14.1% 6.1% 3.9% 7.1% 4.1% 1.5% 0.4% -1.9% 1.5% 3.8% 5.5% 3.9% 1.2% 3.7% 2.0% 4.9% 6.1% 6.09%
Net Income 3Y 13.3% 17.7% 16.5% 17.1% 9.6% 8.3% 10.4% 5.3% 2.9% -2.1% -4.3% 1.4% -9.8% -9.7% -11.4% -15.5% -4.2% -5.4% -4.0% 1.6% 1.63%
Net Income 5Y 18.2% 18.0% 13.3% 14.2% 6.2% 4.0% 7.1% 3.9% 1.3% -0.1% -2.3% 1.0% 3.0% 4.1% 2.5% -0.3% 1.7% -0.1% 2.5% 3.6% 3.62%
EBITDA 3Y 4.1% 7.3% 6.7% 7.2% 9.4% 12.3% 13.1% 9.5% 8.7% 3.7% 2.0% 4.6% 2.7% -0.2% -2.0% -4.9% -3.1% -7.2% -7.3% -3.9% -3.91%
EBITDA 5Y 12.9% 12.8% 8.4% 8.1% 6.9% 7.6% 9.7% 7.6% 5.8% 4.2% 2.6% 4.0% 4.9% 3.8% 2.4% 0.6% 2.2% 0.9% 1.8% 2.5% 2.49%
Gross Profit 3Y 3.6% 6.3% 5.3% 5.7% 7.7% 6.7% 6.7% 3.2% 1.7% -0.4% -1.6% -0.2% -1.4% -2.2% -2.5% -3.0% -1.4% -1.3% -0.5% 3.3% 3.32%
Gross Profit 5Y 9.6% 9.5% 6.7% 6.5% 5.3% 3.8% 5.1% 3.4% 2.0% 1.4% 0.5% 1.1% 2.0% 2.5% 1.2% 0.9% 2.0% 1.3% 2.6% 3.2% 3.23%
Op. Income 3Y 3.5% 7.4% 6.7% 7.1% 9.9% 8.8% 9.1% 5.0% 3.5% -0.6% -2.2% -0.2% -1.8% -2.3% -3.3% -5.0% -2.2% -6.6% -5.3% -1.1% -1.08%
Op. Income 5Y 11.1% 11.1% 6.9% 7.6% 6.3% 4.3% 7.0% 4.6% 2.3% 1.4% 0.6% 1.5% 2.9% 3.6% 1.3% 0.1% 2.4% -1.4% 0.8% 1.7% 1.65%
FCF 3Y 5.9% 21.3% 10.9% 9.9% 23.0% 9.2% 19.7% 5.3% 5.6% 6.7% 3.3% 15.2% 13.6% 9.4% 12.8% 15.6% 21.9% 36.8% 27.4% 32.5% 32.51%
FCF 5Y 14.3% 15.5% 4.1% -0.6% -4.0% -12.6% -0.5% 0.5% 2.9% 8.3% 7.9% 17.8% 28.5% 29.3% 21.0% 11.5% 11.4% 11.9% 15.0% 16.9% 16.86%
OCF 3Y 1.8% 8.1% 5.6% 8.6% 12.8% 11.1% 13.7% 5.2% 3.4% -0.0% -4.9% 1.1% -0.9% -4.0% -6.2% -9.7% -7.8% -4.8% -2.4% 4.5% 4.52%
OCF 5Y 9.3% 11.9% 8.0% 8.4% 7.9% 3.6% 7.8% 4.7% 2.1% 0.7% -2.4% 1.4% 3.1% 4.4% 0.7% -2.4% -0.2% 0.6% 4.4% 6.4% 6.39%
Assets 3Y 8.4% 8.6% 7.1% 7.5% 6.6% 7.6% 6.2% 5.4% 4.6% 3.5% 3.8% 3.2% 1.9% 1.2% 1.1% -0.9% -2.4% -3.0% -2.6% -2.0% -2.00%
Assets 5Y 10.8% 10.0% 8.8% 9.3% 9.6% 8.9% 7.9% 7.2% 6.4% 6.3% 5.2% 5.2% 3.1% 3.5% 3.5% 2.4% 1.9% 0.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.24%
Equity 3Y — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — —
Book Value 3Y — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — —
Dividend 3Y 2.4% 2.4% 2.5% 2.5% 2.3% 2.0% 1.8% 1.6% 1.1% 0.9% 0.5% 0.4% 0.9% 1.5% 1.5% 1.4% 1.8% 2.2% 2.3% 2.2% 2.21%
Growth Quality
Metric Trend Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Q2'23 Current
Revenue Stability 0.92 0.92 0.89 0.89 0.81 0.67 0.94 0.79 0.63 0.31 0.18 0.33 0.32 0.29 0.11 0.29 0.38 0.50 0.34 0.58 0.578
Earnings Stability 0.73 0.69 0.63 0.63 0.55 0.43 0.59 0.37 0.20 0.08 0.04 0.09 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.07 0.13 0.07 0.05 0.055
Margin Stability 0.94 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.97 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.92 0.92 0.92 0.919
Rev. Growth Consistency 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000
Earn. Growth Consistency 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.50 0.500
FCF Positive Streak 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Earnings Persistence 0.80 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.93 0.91 0.93 0.89 0.95 0.92 0.87 0.97 1.00 0.92 0.91 0.97 1.00 0.95 0.98 0.90 0.902
Earnings Smoothness 0.61 0.58 0.57 0.54 0.82 0.73 0.81 0.67 0.87 0.78 0.62 0.91 1.00 0.82 0.79 0.92 1.00 0.87 0.95 0.78 0.782
ROE Trend — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — —
Gross Margin Trend -0.02 -0.02 -0.01 -0.00 -0.00 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.00 -0.01 -0.05 -0.07 -0.09 -0.09 -0.10 -0.09 -0.06 -0.061
FCF Margin Trend 0.08 0.11 0.03 -0.03 -0.06 -0.11 -0.03 0.00 0.03 0.06 0.07 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.07 -0.01 -0.02 -0.03 0.05 0.05 0.050
Sustainable Growth Rate — 37.4% — — — 8.0% — — — — — — — — — -47.0% — — 13.0% 1.1% 1.06%
Internal Growth Rate 5.9% 6.6% 6.2% 6.5% 1.7% 1.2% 2.2% 0.6% — — — — 0.1% 0.9% 0.4% — 0.6% — 1.4% 2.3% 2.32%
Cash Flow Quality
Metric Trend Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Q2'23 Current
OCF/Net Income 0.94 1.01 0.96 0.99 1.35 1.29 1.36 1.34 1.35 1.36 1.28 1.27 1.24 1.22 1.14 1.21 1.20 1.32 1.43 1.46 1.457
FCF/OCF 0.56 0.59 0.49 0.40 0.36 0.29 0.39 0.43 0.52 0.60 0.69 0.81 0.85 0.88 0.85 0.83 0.84 0.85 0.87 0.88 0.877
FCF/Net Income snapshot only 1.278
OCF/EBITDA snapshot only 1.100
CapEx/Revenue 19.5% 19.5% 23.7% 28.9% 31.4% 34.6% 31.6% 28.3% 23.1% 18.1% 12.9% 8.6% 6.9% 5.4% 5.9% 5.7% 5.5% 5.5% 5.1% 5.3% 5.30%
CapEx/Depreciation snapshot only 0.826
Accruals Ratio 0.01 -0.00 0.01 0.00 -0.05 -0.04 -0.05 -0.04 -0.04 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.04 -0.05 -0.06 -0.061
Sloan Accruals snapshot only -0.019
Cash Flow Adequacy snapshot only 1.444
Earnings Quality Score snapshot only 0.750
Dividends & Buybacks
Metric Trend Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Q2'23 Current
Dividend Yield 8.2% 9.7% 9.2% 8.7% 8.4% 8.8% 15.1% 12.6% 15.6% 12.2% 11.6% 10.1% 10.7% 10.5% 9.6% 9.7% 9.6% 8.9% 8.1% 6.9% 6.43%
Dividend/Share $3.72 $3.78 $3.86 $3.93 $3.99 $4.02 $4.08 $4.13 $4.13 $4.14 $4.12 $4.13 $4.18 $4.24 $4.22 $4.20 $4.22 $4.22 $4.23 $4.21 $4.44
Payout Ratio 67.5% 64.9% 66.4% 65.6% 87.0% 90.3% 84.4% 94.8% 1.0% 1.1% 1.2% 1.0% 99.2% 92.3% 96.9% 1.1% 95.2% 1.0% 88.7% 83.0% 83.00%
FCF Payout Ratio 1.3% 1.1% 1.4% 1.7% 1.8% 2.4% 1.6% 1.6% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 99.7% 94.2% 86.5% 1.0% 1.1% 93.8% 90.1% 70.8% 65.0% 64.96%
Total Payout Ratio 67.5% 64.9% 66.4% 65.6% 87.0% 90.3% 1.0% 1.2% 1.3% 1.5% 1.3% 1.2% 1.5% 1.5% 1.6% 1.9% 1.4% 1.5% 1.4% 1.1% 1.14%
Div. Increase Streak 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Chowder Number 0.16 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.16 0.15 0.20 0.16 0.18 0.13 0.11 0.09 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.031
Buyback Yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.3% 2.7% 4.2% 3.7% 0.9% 1.7% 5.8% 6.0% 6.2% 7.2% 4.5% 4.7% 4.3% 2.5% 2.55%
Net Buyback Yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.3% 2.7% 4.2% 2.6% -0.1% 0.8% 4.9% 6.0% 6.2% 7.2% 4.5% 4.7% 4.3% 2.5% 2.55%
Total Shareholder Return 8.2% 9.7% 9.2% 8.7% 8.4% 8.8% 18.4% 15.4% 19.8% 14.8% 11.5% 10.9% 15.6% 16.5% 15.8% 16.8% 14.1% 13.6% 12.4% 9.4% 9.41%
DuPont Factors
Metric Trend Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Q2'23 Current
Tax Burden (NI/EBT) 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.01 1.03 1.04 1.05 1.03 1.01 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.998
Interest Burden (EBT/EBIT) 0.90 0.89 0.89 0.90 0.87 0.77 0.79 0.76 0.74 0.76 0.74 0.78 0.78 0.82 0.81 0.79 0.81 0.71 0.73 0.75 0.745
EBIT Margin 0.53 0.53 0.54 0.54 0.42 0.48 0.48 0.49 0.48 0.44 0.44 0.46 0.45 0.42 0.39 0.35 0.36 0.38 0.39 0.40 0.398
Asset Turnover 0.36 0.37 0.36 0.36 0.36 0.34 0.36 0.33 0.31 0.29 0.28 0.30 0.31 0.34 0.34 0.36 0.40 0.41 0.43 0.45 0.452
Equity Multiplier -69.24 6.04 -59.63 -58.92 -60.07 6.52 -54.76 -53.36 -53.12 -48.18 -46.90 -49.42 -49.67 -47.98 -49.04 62.48 -52.21 -63.23 9.24 46.77 46.775
Per Share
Metric Trend Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Q2'23 Current
EPS (Diluted TTM) $5.51 $5.82 $5.82 $5.99 $4.58 $4.45 $4.84 $4.35 $4.08 $3.65 $3.36 $4.03 $4.22 $4.59 $4.35 $3.91 $4.44 $4.19 $4.77 $5.07 $5.07
Book Value/Share $-0.52 $11.54 $-0.54 $-0.60 $-0.65 $-0.71 $-0.75 $-0.73 $-0.73 $-0.82 $-0.81 $-0.75 $-0.74 $-0.72 $-0.72 $2.00 $-0.68 $-0.46 $9.07 $-0.46 $8.05
Tangible Book/Share $-0.98 $11.08 $-0.99 $-1.04 $-1.09 $-1.15 $-1.19 $-1.18 $-1.16 $-1.25 $-1.24 $-1.17 $-1.17 $-1.16 $-1.15 $1.56 $-1.12 $-0.90 $8.63 $-0.91 $-0.91
Revenue/Share $11.53 $12.34 $12.15 $12.39 $12.47 $11.90 $12.66 $11.72 $11.46 $10.84 $10.31 $11.21 $11.61 $12.91 $13.04 $13.75 $15.17 $15.53 $16.64 $17.15 $15.28
FCF/Share $2.90 $3.50 $2.72 $2.36 $2.25 $1.65 $2.59 $2.51 $2.85 $2.98 $2.98 $4.14 $4.44 $4.90 $4.19 $3.94 $4.50 $4.69 $5.97 $6.48 $4.61
OCF/Share $5.16 $5.91 $5.61 $5.94 $6.17 $5.76 $6.59 $5.83 $5.50 $4.95 $4.31 $5.10 $5.24 $5.59 $4.96 $4.73 $5.33 $5.54 $6.83 $7.39 $5.45
Cash/Share $0.95 $0.95 $0.06 $0.01 $0.59 $0.25 $0.61 $0.01 $0.04 $0.06 $0.02 $1.16 $0.06 $0.01 $0.02 $0.02 $0.04 $0.01 $0.04 $0.63 $0.01
EBITDA/Share $5.59 $5.87 $5.94 $6.12 $6.24 $6.84 $7.22 $6.82 $6.64 $5.96 $5.67 $6.19 $6.32 $6.24 $5.99 $5.69 $6.25 $6.08 $6.41 $6.71 $6.71
Debt/Share $18.70 $18.65 $19.48 $20.01 $21.27 $21.28 $21.41 $21.98 $22.42 $22.98 $23.22 $23.19 $24.14 $24.59 $25.77 $24.40 $24.87 $25.05 $25.13 $25.02 $25.02
Net Debt/Share $17.75 $17.69 $19.42 $20.00 $20.67 $21.02 $20.80 $21.97 $22.38 $22.92 $23.20 $22.04 $24.08 $24.58 $25.75 $24.38 $24.83 $25.04 $25.10 $24.39 $24.39
Academic Models
Metric Trend Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Q2'23 Current
Altman Z-Score — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — 2.328
Altman Z-Prime snapshot only 3.479
Piotroski F-Score 7 7 7 7 6 4 5 5 4 6 6 5 6 7 7 5 6 5 7 8 8
Beneish M-Score -2.36 -2.48 -2.17 -2.26 -2.69 -2.49 -2.80 -3.03 -2.72 -2.73 -2.08 -2.12 -2.47 -2.33 -2.68 -2.43 -2.25 -2.11 -2.56 -2.75 -2.749
Ohlson O-Score snapshot only -6.688
Net-Net WC snapshot only $-25.49
EVA snapshot only $657858000.19
Credit
Metric Trend Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Q2'23 Current
Credit Rating snapshot only BBB-
Credit Score 20.00 58.77 20.00 20.00 20.00 20.00 49.86 44.52 45.57 39.50 38.24 53.55 51.14 49.68 43.79 46.74 42.45 48.14 52.79 53.11 53.114
Credit Grade snapshot only 10
Credit Trend snapshot only 6.377
Implied Spread (bps) snapshot only 350.000
Industry Credit Rank snapshot only 55
Sector Credit Rank snapshot only 40

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