— Know what they know.
Not Investment Advice

MRP NYSE

Millrose Properties, Inc.
1W: +8.7% 1M: -9.2% 3M: -16.4% YTD: -17.8% 1Y: -27.1%
$24.32
+0.41 (+1.71%)
After Hours: $24.01 (-0.31, -1.27%)
Weekly Expected Move ±7.1%
$20 $22 $24 $26 $27
NYSE · Real Estate · REIT - Residential · Tech Score Neutral · Power 53 · $3.7B mcap · 120M float · 1.66% daily turnover · Short 56% of daily vol
Credit Risk of going bust: not rated, financial company (lending is its business) Bonds: $228.7M held by 274 funds, 175 bp over Treasuries → details ▾
Not rated: lending and leverage are a financial company's business, which the model misreads.
Bond figures are fund-reported marks (SEC N-PORT) as of Jul 2026. How these are computed.

Edge Score

Quantitative competitive moat analysis scoring five pillars of durable advantage — cost leadership, brand intangibles, switching costs, network effects, and efficient scale — using industry percentile rankings on a 0–100 scale.

NARROW EDGE
58.1 / 100
NoneWeakNarrowWide
Primary source: Switching Costs  ·  ROIC: 7.5%
Cost Advantage
70
Intangibles
55
Switching Cost
78
Network Effect
24
Scale
48
The Edge Score quantifies a company's competitive moat using five pillars: Cost Advantage (20%, operating margin and SG&A efficiency vs industry peers), Intangible Assets (25%, gross margin premium, R&D intensity, brand pricing power), Switching Costs (25%, revenue stability, earnings consistency, customer retention proxied by operating leverage), Network Effects (15%, revenue growth with expanding margins, market share dominance), and Efficient Scale (15%, market concentration, ROIC sustainability). Each pillar is scored 0–100 using industry percentile rankings, then weighted into a composite. Wide ≥ 70, Narrow ≥ 55, Weak ≥ 40, None < 40. MRP has a Narrow competitive edge (58.1/100) — meaningful but not impregnable advantages over competitors. The primary source of advantage is Switching Costs. ROIC of 7.5% suggests modest returns relative to capital deployed.

Analyst Insights

Wall Street analyst consensus based on price targets and buy/sell/hold recommendations from institutional research coverage over the trailing 12 months.

Analyst Price Targets
Analyst Recommendations
Strong Buy: 0Buy: 3Hold: 1Sell: 0Strong Sell: 0
Rating Summary
ConsensusBuy
Avg Target$—
Analysts0

Financial Rating

Composite financial health rating (A+ to F) based on discounted cash flow valuation, return on equity, return on assets, debt-to-equity leverage, and relative P/E and P/B multiples.

A
Oct 27, 2026
DCF
5
ROE
4
ROA
5
D/E
1
P/E
4
P/B
4
The Financial Rating evaluates six fundamental factors — discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation, return on equity (ROE), return on assets (ROA), debt-to-equity leverage (D/E), and relative price-to-earnings (P/E) and price-to-book (P/B) multiples — each scored 1–5. MRP receives an overall rating of A. Strongest factors: DCF (5/5), ROE (4/5), ROA (5/5), P/E (4/5), P/B (4/5). Areas of concern: D/E (1/5).
Rating Change History
DateFromTo
2026-10-27 A+ A
2026-10-22 A A+
2026-10-12 A- A
2026-10-06 A A-
2026-10-01 A+ A
2026-08-06 A- A+
2026-08-04 A+ A-
2026-07-22 A A+
2026-07-20 A+ A
2026-07-10 A A+

InsiderStreet Scorecard

Proprietary multi-factor scorecard rating companies across seven fundamental dimensions — profitability, balance sheet strength, earnings quality, growth, value, momentum, and safety — each scored 0–100.

★ ★ ★ ★ ★ 70 Grade A+
Profitability
72
Balance Sheet
48
Earnings Quality
53
Growth
76
Value
86
Momentum
100
Safety
15
Cash Flow
90
The InsiderStreet Scorecard rates companies across eight dimensions: Profitability (margins, ROA, ROE), Balance Sheet (leverage, liquidity, coverage), Earnings Quality (accruals, cash conversion), Growth (revenue and earnings trajectory), Value (P/E, P/B, earnings yield, Graham criteria), Momentum (revenue and earnings acceleration), Safety (Altman Z-Score risk adjustment), and Cash Flow (operating cash flow quality, FCF conversion, cash coverage). The overall score blends 35% quality, 35% value, and 30% momentum, with a penalty for distress-zone Altman scores. MRP scores highest in Momentum (100/100) and lowest in Safety (15/100). An overall grade of A+ places MRP among the highest-quality companies in its peer group.

Risk & Quality Signals

Academic financial models used by institutional investors to assess bankruptcy risk, earnings manipulation, financial strength, and credit quality.

Altman Z-Score
1.04
Distress Zone
Piotroski F-Score
6/9
✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✗ ✓
Beneish M-Score
225.95
Possible Manipulator
Ohlson O-Score
-10.96
Bankruptcy prob: 0.0%
Low Risk
Credit Rating
A-
Score: 66.0/100
Trend: Deteriorating
Earnings Quality
75/100
OCF/NI: 10.98x
Accruals: -53.7%
The Altman Z-Score (1968) combines five ratios — working capital, retained earnings, EBIT, market value of equity, and sales, all relative to total assets or liabilities — into a single bankruptcy predictor. MRP scores 1.04, placing it in the Distress Zone (safe > 2.99, distress < 1.81). Historically, companies in this range face elevated bankruptcy risk. The Piotroski F-Score (2000) is a 9-point binary checklist — four profitability tests (positive ROA, positive cash flow, improving ROA, cash flow exceeding net income), three leverage tests (declining debt ratio, improving current ratio, no share dilution), and two efficiency tests (improving gross margin, improving asset turnover). Each pass scores 1 point. MRP scores 6/9, indicating moderate financial health — some areas of strength offset by weaknesses in others. The Beneish M-Score (1999) is an 8-variable model that detects earnings manipulation by comparing year-over-year changes in receivables, gross margins, asset quality, sales growth, depreciation, SG&A, leverage, and accruals. Scores above −1.78 statistically resemble past manipulators. MRP's score of 225.95 exceeds the −1.78 red flag threshold — this does not confirm manipulation but indicates the earnings profile resembles past manipulators statistically. The Ohlson O-Score (1980) is a 9-variable logistic regression that estimates bankruptcy probability using firm size, leverage, working capital, current ratio, profitability (ROA), cash flow coverage, negative equity flag, consecutive losses flag, and earnings trajectory. The raw score is converted to a probability via logistic transformation. MRP's implied 0.0% bankruptcy probability is well within safe territory. Our Credit Rating model scores companies on five weighted components — solvency (30%), earning power (25%), leverage (20%), liquidity (15%), and cash flow quality (10%) — then blends the absolute score with sector and industry peer rankings. For companies with large buyback programs, equity is adjusted by adding back cumulative 5-year repurchases (capped at 80% of FCF generated) to avoid penalizing shareholder-friendly capital allocation. MRP receives an estimated rating of A- (score: 66.0/100), with a deteriorating trend. The Earnings Quality score measures how well reported earnings are backed by real cash. It evaluates the operating cash flow to net income ratio (OCF/NI ≥ 1.0 means every dollar of earnings is cash-backed) and the accruals ratio (the gap between earnings and cash flow relative to assets — lower is better). MRP's score of 75/100 is high — cash flows strongly support reported earnings.

Valuation

Key valuation multiples comparing the stock's market price to its earnings, revenue, book value, and cash flows. Lower multiples may indicate relative undervaluation versus peers.

P/E
7.94x
PEG
0.02x
P/S
4.67x
P/B
0.68x
P/FCF
0.93x
P/OCF
0.93x
EV/EBITDA
11.23x
EV/Revenue
9.60x
EV/EBIT
11.22x
EV/FCF
1.40x
Earnings Yield
9.80%
FCF Yield
107.54%
Shareholder Yield
10.01%
Graham Number
$47.69
Equity-based multiples (P/E, P/B, P/FCF) compare the stock price to per-share fundamentals and are affected by capital structure. Enterprise value multiples (EV/EBITDA, EV/Revenue, EV/FCF) strip out debt and cash, making them more useful for cross-company comparisons regardless of how companies are financed. The Graham Number — √(22.5 × EPS × Book Value) — is Benjamin Graham's formula for the maximum price a defensive investor should pay. At 7.9x earnings, MRP trades at a deep value multiple. An earnings yield of 9.8% exceeds typical risk-free rates, suggesting equities are being compensated for risk. Graham's intrinsic value formula yields $47.69 per share, suggesting a potential 99% margin of safety at the current price.

DuPont Decomposition (5-Factor)

The 5-factor DuPont framework breaks Return on Equity into its component drivers — tax efficiency, interest burden, operating profitability, asset utilization, and financial leverage — to reveal what truly drives shareholder returns.

Tax Burden
0.962
NI / EBT
×
Interest Burden
0.761
EBT / EBIT
×
EBIT Margin
0.856
EBIT / Rev
×
Asset Turnover
0.086
Rev / Assets
×
Equity Multiplier
1.508
Assets / Equity
=
ROE
8.1%
The 5-factor DuPont identity decomposes ROE as: Tax Burden × Interest Burden × EBIT Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier = ROE. This reveals whether returns are driven by operating performance, financial leverage, or tax efficiency — three very different sources of profitability. MRP's ROE of 8.1% is driven by EBIT Margin (0.856) as the dominant factor. A tax burden ratio of 0.96 indicates minimal tax leakage — the company retains over 90% of pre-tax earnings.

Graham-Dodd Adjusted Valuation

Our adaptation of Graham's growth formula (Fair P/E = 8.5 + 2g) from The Intelligent Investor. The classic version relies on analyst growth projections, which can be unreliable. This adjusted model substitutes the company's realized 3-year EPS CAGR — a backward-looking, verifiable measure of actual earnings power — grounding the valuation in demonstrated performance rather than forecasts.

Two adjustments we make, and why. Growth is capped at 15%. Graham defined g as expected growth over the next seven to ten years, not last year's rate. Across US companies since 1994 the median realized 7-year EPS growth is 5–8% regardless of how fast a company grew beforehand, and of 4,457 company-quarters that grew faster than 200%, none sustained it. Uncapped, the formula assigned fair multiples in the hundreds to companies that had never held that rate — and scored worse than simply reading the P/E. Capped, it carries real information. The verdict has three states, not two. Tested over 377,249 stock-months, this ratio only separates outcomes at its extremes: below 0.25 beat the universe by 1.3 points a year, above 3.0 lagged by 2.7, and everything in between sat inside a one-point band. Rather than call two-thirds of the market "undervalued" on a threshold of 1.0, we say Neutral where the model cannot tell — which is most of the time.

Adj. Growth Rate
15.00%
Fair P/E
38.50x
Intrinsic Value
$110.40
Price/Value
0.27x
Margin of Safety
73.49%
Premium
-73.49%
Assessment
Neutral
Graham's classic formula uses analyst-projected growth to estimate a fair P/E (8.5 + 2g). Our adjusted version replaces that projection with MRP's realized 15.0% 3-year EPS CAGR, capped at 15% — demonstrated performance rather than forecasts, held to a rate companies have historically sustained. MRP trades at a -73% premium to its adjusted intrinsic value of $110.40, suggesting the market is pricing in future growth beyond what historical earnings support. The adjusted fair P/E of 38.5x compares to the current market P/E of 7.9x.

Profitability Trends

Historical profitability ratios tracking how efficiently the company converts revenue into returns for shareholders over time.

Leverage & Solvency Trends

Debt and liquidity metrics showing the company's financial leverage and ability to meet short-term and long-term obligations.

Efficiency & Working Capital Trends

Operating efficiency metrics measuring how quickly the company converts inventory to sales, collects receivables, and manages its cash conversion cycle.

Growth Trends (YoY %)

Year-over-year growth rates for key financial metrics, showing the trajectory of revenue, earnings, and cash flow generation.

Earnings Stability

R-squared of linear regression measuring how predictably revenue, earnings, and margins follow a trend over the trailing 5 years. 1.0 = perfectly predictable; lower values indicate erratic or cyclical behavior.

Monte Carlo Price Simulation

Geometric Brownian Motion with 1,000 antithetic paths over 1 year, seeded from 433 days of historical volatility. Percentile bands show the range of statistically plausible outcomes — this is a statistical model, not a forecast.

Current Price
$23.90
Median 1Y
$24.52
5th Pctile
$13.75
95th Pctile
$44.03
Ann. Volatility
34.9%
25th–75th percentile 5th–95th percentile Median path Historical

Workforce & Productivity

Workforce efficiency metrics measuring revenue, profit, and R&D spend per employee — key indicators of operational leverage and human capital productivity.

Employees
—
Revenue / Employee
—
Rev: $600,461,000
Profit / Employee
—
NI: $379,864,000
SGA / Employee
—
Avg labor cost proxy

Scaling Efficiency

All Ratios & Metrics

Complete fundamental data with up to 20 periods of history, sparkline trends, and current values across 13 categories and 130+ financial metrics.

Profitability
Metric Trend Q1'25 Q2'25 Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Q2'26 Current
ROE 0.7% 2.6% 4.4% 6.5% 7.9% 8.1% 8.12%
ROA 0.6% 1.9% 2.9% 4.1% 5.5% 5.4% 5.39%
ROIC 0.7% 2.4% 4.0% 5.8% 7.0% 7.5% 7.50%
ROCE 0.7% 2.2% 4.1% 5.3% 6.4% 6.8% 6.84%
Gross Margin 85.4% 85.3% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 84.8% 84.81%
Operating Margin 55.2% 85.1% 85.3% 84.8% 85.2% 85.2% 85.16%
Net Margin 48.1% 75.7% 58.6% 64.5% 63.0% 63.9% 63.95%
EBITDA Margin 56.5% 85.1% 85.3% 86.0% 85.7% 85.2% 85.16%
FCF Margin -10.1% -3.1% -1.5% 4.7% 6.2% 6.9% 6.87%
OCF Margin 25.7% 56.3% 61.7% 6.1% 6.2% 6.9% 6.87%
ROIC Economic snapshot only 7.49%
Cash ROA snapshot only 53.83%
Cash ROIC snapshot only 62.99%
CROIC snapshot only 62.99%
NOPAT Margin snapshot only 81.87%
Pretax Margin snapshot only 65.07%
R&D / Revenue snapshot only 0.00%
SGA / Revenue snapshot only 3.93%
SBC / Revenue snapshot only 0.18%
Valuation
Metric Trend Q1'25 Q2'25 Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Q2'26 Current
P/E Ratio 103.96 29.62 21.18 12.73 9.77 10.21 7.940
P/S Ratio 50.04 19.51 13.28 8.05 6.35 6.39 4.668
P/B Ratio 0.70 0.77 0.93 0.83 0.77 0.83 0.681
P/FCF -4.94 -6.20 -9.01 1.72 1.02 0.93 0.930
P/OCF 194.40 34.66 21.53 1.32 1.02 0.93 0.930
EV/EBITDA 94.15 31.48 22.04 14.12 11.32 11.23 11.227
EV/Revenue 53.19 23.58 17.51 11.51 9.69 9.60 9.604
EV/EBIT 94.15 31.44 22.03 14.12 11.32 11.22 11.224
EV/FCF -5.25 -7.50 -11.88 2.46 1.55 1.40 1.398
Earnings Yield 1.0% 3.4% 4.7% 7.9% 10.2% 9.8% 9.80%
FCF Yield -20.2% -16.1% -11.1% 58.2% 98.3% 1.1% 1.08%
PEG Ratio snapshot only 0.018
Price/Tangible Book snapshot only 0.830
EV/OCF snapshot only 1.398
EV/Gross Profit snapshot only 9.997
Acquirers Multiple snapshot only 11.284
Shareholder Yield snapshot only 10.01%
Graham Number snapshot only $47.69
Leverage & Solvency
Metric Trend Q1'25 Q2'25 Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Q2'26 Current
Current Ratio 9.27 60.42 0.00 — 28.65 0.44 0.436
Quick Ratio 0.18 0.88 0.00 — 28.65 0.44 0.436
Debt/Equity 0.06 0.17 0.34 0.36 0.42 0.42 0.424
Net Debt/Equity 0.04 0.16 0.30 0.35 0.41 0.42 0.418
Debt/Assets 0.05 0.13 0.22 0.23 0.25 0.26 0.255
Debt/EBITDA 7.49 5.83 6.06 4.32 3.99 3.81 3.810
Net Debt/EBITDA 5.58 5.44 5.32 4.24 3.90 3.76 3.758
Interest Coverage 18.42 68.52 7.06 6.01 5.16 4.11 4.114
Equity Multiplier 1.22 1.36 1.54 1.58 1.63 1.66 1.659
Cash Ratio snapshot only 0.178
Debt Service Coverage snapshot only 4.112
Cash to Debt snapshot only 0.014
FCF to Debt snapshot only 2.108
Defensive Interval snapshot only 367.8 days
Efficiency & Turnover
Metric Trend Q1'25 Q2'25 Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Q2'26 Current
Asset Turnover 0.01 0.03 0.05 0.06 0.09 0.09 0.086
Inventory Turnover 0.00 0.00 — — 0.01 0.01 0.008
Receivables Turnover 1.75 4.97 1.03 1.83 3.85 15.77 15.771
Payables Turnover — — — — — — —
DSO 208 73 354 200 95 23 23.1 days
DIO 211055 84062 0 0 58165 47872 47871.6 days
DPO 0 0 0 0 0 0 —
Cash Conversion Cycle 211263 84136 354 200 58260 47895 —
Operating Cycle snapshot only 47893.2 days
Cash Velocity snapshot only 22.257
Capital Intensity snapshot only 12.764
Growth (YoY)
Metric Trend Q1'25 Q2'25 Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Q2'26 Current
Revenue — — — — 7.6% 2.3% 2.28%
Net Income — — — — 10.6% 2.1% 2.12%
EPS — — — — 10.6% 2.1% 2.12%
FCF — — — — 6.3% 8.2% 8.17%
EBITDA — — — — 12.1% 2.7% 2.75%
Op. Income — — — — 12.3% 2.8% 2.75%
OCF Growth snapshot only 39.08%
Asset Growth snapshot only 21.74%
Equity Growth snapshot only -0.38%
Debt Growth snapshot only 1.45%
Shares Change snapshot only -0.00%
Dividend Growth snapshot only 6.71%
Growth Quality
Metric Trend Q1'25 Q2'25 Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Q2'26 Current
Revenue Stability — — — — — — —
Earnings Stability — — — — — — —
Margin Stability — — — — — — —
Rev. Growth Consistency 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.50 0.50 0.500
Earn. Growth Consistency 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.50 0.50 0.500
FCF Positive Streak 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Earnings Persistence — — — — — — —
Earnings Smoothness — — — — 0.00 0.00 0.000
ROE Trend — — — — — — —
Gross Margin Trend — — — — — — —
FCF Margin Trend — — — — — — —
Sustainable Growth Rate 0.7% 1.5% 1.4% 1.4% 0.7% -0.2% -0.18%
Internal Growth Rate 0.6% 1.1% 0.9% 0.9% 0.5% — —
Cash Flow Quality
Metric Trend Q1'25 Q2'25 Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Q2'26 Current
OCF/Net Income 0.53 0.85 0.98 9.67 9.61 10.98 10.977
FCF/OCF -39.35 -5.59 -2.39 0.77 1.00 1.00 1.000
FCF/Net Income snapshot only 10.977
OCF/EBITDA snapshot only 8.033
CapEx/Revenue 10.4% 3.7% 2.1% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.00%
Accruals Ratio 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.36 -0.48 -0.54 -0.537
Sloan Accruals snapshot only -0.898
Cash Flow Adequacy snapshot only 10.744
Earnings Quality Score snapshot only 0.750
Dividends & Buybacks
Metric Trend Q1'25 Q2'25 Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Q2'26 Current
Dividend Yield 0.0% 1.4% 3.3% 6.2% 9.4% 10.0% 12.80%
Dividend/Share $0.00 $0.38 $1.07 $1.80 $2.55 $2.93 $3.07
Payout Ratio 0.0% 41.3% 68.9% 78.7% 91.4% 1.0% 1.02%
FCF Payout Ratio — — — 10.6% 9.5% 9.3% 9.31%
Total Payout Ratio 0.0% 41.3% 68.9% 78.7% 91.4% 1.0% 1.02%
Div. Increase Streak — 0 0 0 0 1 0
Chowder Number — — — — — 6.81 6.811
Buyback Yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.00%
Net Buyback Yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.00%
Total Shareholder Return 0.0% 1.4% 3.3% 6.2% 9.4% 10.0% 10.01%
DuPont Factors
Metric Trend Q1'25 Q2'25 Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Q2'26 Current
Tax Burden (NI/EBT) 0.90 0.94 0.94 0.95 0.96 0.96 0.962
Interest Burden (EBT/EBIT) 0.95 0.93 0.83 0.82 0.79 0.76 0.761
EBIT Margin 0.56 0.75 0.79 0.82 0.86 0.86 0.856
Asset Turnover 0.01 0.03 0.05 0.06 0.09 0.09 0.086
Equity Multiplier 1.22 1.36 1.54 1.58 1.43 1.51 1.508
Per Share
Metric Trend Q1'25 Q2'25 Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Q2'26 Current
EPS (Diluted TTM) $0.24 $0.92 $1.55 $2.29 $2.79 $2.87 $2.87
Book Value/Share $35.40 $35.38 $35.28 $35.27 $35.26 $35.25 $35.24
Tangible Book/Share $35.40 $35.38 $35.28 $35.27 $35.26 $35.25 $35.25
Revenue/Share $0.50 $1.40 $2.48 $3.62 $4.29 $4.58 $4.77
FCF/Share $-5.05 $-4.39 $-3.65 $16.95 $26.80 $31.48 $31.47
OCF/Share $0.13 $0.79 $1.53 $22.12 $26.80 $31.48 $31.47
Cash/Share $0.54 $0.40 $1.46 $0.21 $0.30 $0.21 $0.39
EBITDA/Share $0.28 $1.05 $1.97 $2.95 $3.67 $3.92 $3.92
Debt/Share $2.11 $6.09 $11.92 $12.72 $14.64 $14.93 $14.93
Net Debt/Share $1.57 $5.69 $10.46 $12.51 $14.34 $14.72 $14.72
Academic Models
Metric Trend Q1'25 Q2'25 Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Q2'26 Current
Altman Z-Score — — — — — — 1.042
Altman Z-Prime snapshot only 1.701
Piotroski F-Score 3 3 3 4 7 6 6
Beneish M-Score — — — — 164.57 225.95 225.947
Ohlson O-Score snapshot only -10.960
Net-Net WC snapshot only $-22.72
EVA snapshot only $-207006467.77
Credit
Metric Trend Q1'25 Q2'25 Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Q2'26 Current
Credit Rating snapshot only A-
Credit Score 78.41 78.84 44.93 66.75 69.12 66.03 66.026
Credit Grade snapshot only 7
Credit Trend snapshot only -12.817
Implied Spread (bps) snapshot only 175.000
Industry Credit Rank snapshot only 100
Sector Credit Rank snapshot only 71

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