NGVC NYSE
Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc.
1W: +3.1%
1M: -0.7%
3M: -7.5%
YTD: +24.2%
1Y: -24.3%
3Y: +159.3%
5Y: +203.2%
$30.44
-0.52 (-1.68%)
Weekly Expected Move ±5.1%
$28
$30
$31
$33
$35
Credit Risk of going bust: lower than 93% of companies Debt: 31.4% of company value Bonds: none of note held by US funds details ▾
Of US companies ranked in the safest four tenths, about 1 in 3,500 filed for bankruptcy within a year (2020-2025).
If the stock fell to about $0.01 (down more than 99.9%), Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. would be worth roughly what it owes.
Total debt $321.2M against a stock market value of $701.5M.
Distance to default 16.61 (Merton model): prices to 2026-10-27, balance sheet 2026-06-30, debt counted $755K (short-term plus half of long-term), stock volatility 41.0%; Altman Z'' 2.16. A ranking and a back-test, not a forecast.
US fund filings (SEC N-PORT) show under $25M of this company's bonds, so there is no bond page. Its debt may be bank loans or privately placed. How these are computed.
If the stock fell to about $0.01 (down more than 99.9%), Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. would be worth roughly what it owes.
Total debt $321.2M against a stock market value of $701.5M.
Distance to default 16.61 (Merton model): prices to 2026-10-27, balance sheet 2026-06-30, debt counted $755K (short-term plus half of long-term), stock volatility 41.0%; Altman Z'' 2.16. A ranking and a back-test, not a forecast.
US fund filings (SEC N-PORT) show under $25M of this company's bonds, so there is no bond page. Its debt may be bank loans or privately placed. How these are computed.
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Income Statement
Cash Flow
Balance Sheet
Earnings
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Analysis
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Weather
Peers
ESG
Institutions
ETF Exposure
Dark Pool
Short Interest
Supply Chain
Oct Typical
☀️
Sunny
+5.3% YTD avg
Midterm Year
☀️
Sunny
+7.4% YTD avg
2026 Now
☀️
Sunny
Above typical
20yr Avg YTD
+5.3%
Day 206 of 252
Midterm Year YTD
+7.4%
Presidential cycle avg
2026 YTD
+24.2%
Above 20yr avg
Typical Vol
41%
Annualized
Monthly Weather Forecast
Jan
20yr
💨
+0.2%
Midterm
🌧️
-3.0%
57% win
46% vol
Feb
20yr
🌫️
+3.0%
Midterm
☁️
-0.1%
57% win
52% vol
Mar
20yr
💨
+5.4%
Midterm
☀️
+6.5%
64% win
46% vol
Apr
20yr
🌫️
+4.5%
Midterm
⛅
+4.1%
50% win
49% vol
May
20yr
🌫️
+2.8%
Midterm
⛈️
-5.5%
43% win
83% vol
Jun
20yr
🌫️
+4.5%
Midterm
⛅
+3.3%
50% win
42% vol
Jul
20yr
💨
+10.9%
Midterm
☀️
+7.5%
87% win
50% vol
Aug
20yr
⛈️
+8.8%
Midterm
☀️
+17.5%
47% win
66% vol
Sep
20yr
⛈️
+5.0%
Midterm
⛅
+1.7%
47% win
38% vol
Oct
20yr
⛈️
+4.6%
Midterm
☀️
+6.3%
60% win
41% vol
Now:
+0.1%
Nov
20yr
💨
+25.3%
Midterm
☀️
+22.6%
57% win
74% vol
Dec
20yr
⛅
+1.7%
Midterm
⛈️
-1.0%
50% win
34% vol
Seasonality (20yr)
Updated: 2026-10-27
YTD: +24.2%