NSC NYSE
Norfolk Southern Corporation
1W: +3.2%
1M: +6.7%
3M: -1.1%
YTD: +16.6%
1Y: +18.2%
3Y: +75.6%
5Y: +32.8%
$339.74
+5.75 (+1.72%)
After Hours: $337.19 (-2.56, -0.75%)
Weekly Expected Move ±2.7%
$312
$321
$330
$339
$348
Credit Risk of going bust: lower than 87% of companies Debt: 18.1% of company value Bonds: $155.1M held by 272 funds, 80 bp over Treasuries → details ▾
Of US companies ranked in the safest four tenths, about 1 in 3,500 filed for bankruptcy within a year (2020-2025).
If the stock fell to about $3.70 (down 99%), Norfolk Southern Corporation would be worth roughly what it owes.
Total debt $16.61B against a stock market value of $75.02B.
Distance to default 12.16 (Merton model): prices to 2026-10-26, balance sheet 2026-09-30, debt counted $8.63B (short-term plus half of long-term), stock volatility 20.9%; Altman Z'' 2.17. A ranking and a back-test, not a forecast.
Bond figures are fund-reported marks (SEC N-PORT) as of Jul 2026. How these are computed.
If the stock fell to about $3.70 (down 99%), Norfolk Southern Corporation would be worth roughly what it owes.
Total debt $16.61B against a stock market value of $75.02B.
Distance to default 12.16 (Merton model): prices to 2026-10-26, balance sheet 2026-09-30, debt counted $8.63B (short-term plus half of long-term), stock volatility 20.9%; Altman Z'' 2.17. A ranking and a back-test, not a forecast.
Bond figures are fund-reported marks (SEC N-PORT) as of Jul 2026. How these are computed.
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Supply Chain
Oct Typical
☀️
Sunny
+9.4% YTD avg
Midterm Year
☀️
Sunny
+11.0% YTD avg
2026 Now
☀️
Sunny
Above typical
20yr Avg YTD
+9.4%
Day 206 of 252
Midterm Year YTD
+11.0%
Presidential cycle avg
2026 YTD
+18.6%
Above 20yr avg
Typical Vol
33%
Annualized
Monthly Weather Forecast
Jan
20yr
🌫️
+1.6%
Midterm
⛅
+1.1%
40% win
31% vol
Feb
20yr
☁️
+1.6%
Midterm
⛅
+1.5%
50% win
27% vol
Mar
20yr
💨
+2.9%
Midterm
☀️
+6.2%
60% win
40% vol
Apr
20yr
⛅
+5.9%
Midterm
☀️
+6.9%
70% win
32% vol
May
20yr
⛅
+6.8%
Midterm
☀️
+6.2%
50% win
27% vol
Jun
20yr
🌧️
+5.7%
Midterm
⛅
+4.2%
45% win
27% vol
Jul
20yr
☀️
+8.4%
Midterm
⛅
+4.6%
75% win
28% vol
Aug
20yr
☁️
+8.1%
Midterm
☀️
+5.2%
50% win
25% vol
Sep
20yr
🌧️
+7.7%
Midterm
☀️
+7.9%
50% win
27% vol
Oct
20yr
⛅
+10.4%
Midterm
☀️
+11.3%
52% win
33% vol
Now:
+9.9%
Nov
20yr
⛅
+14.2%
Midterm
☀️
+12.4%
70% win
30% vol
Dec
20yr
🌧️
-0.6%
Midterm
🌧️
-2.3%
55% win
25% vol
Seasonality (20yr)
Updated: 2026-10-27
YTD: +18.6%