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PTRN NASDAQ

Pattern Group Inc. Series A Common Stock
1W: -10.3% 1M: -3.0% 3M: -29.4% YTD: +41.5% 1Y: -10.0%
$16.27
+0.40 (+2.52%)
 
Weekly Expected Move ±5.8%
$14 $15 $16 $17 $18
NASDAQ · Communication Services · Advertising Agencies · Tech Score Sell · Power 42 · $2.5B mcap · 41M float · 4.42% daily turnover · Short 38% of daily vol
Credit Risk of going bust: lower than 64% of companies Debt: 2.0% of company value Bonds: none of note held by US funds details ▾
Of US companies ranked in the safest four tenths, about 1 in 3,500 filed for bankruptcy within a year (2020-2025).
If the stock fell to about $0.05 (down 99.7%), Pattern Group Inc. Series A Common Stock would be worth roughly what it owes.
Total debt $51.3M against a stock market value of $2.53B.
Distance to default 6.64 (Merton model): prices to 2026-10-27, balance sheet 2026-06-30, debt counted $25.7M (short-term plus half of long-term), stock volatility 67.3%; Altman Z'' 5.08. A ranking and a back-test, not a forecast.
US fund filings (SEC N-PORT) show under $25M of this company's bonds, so there is no bond page. Its debt may be bank loans or privately placed. How these are computed.

Edge Score

Quantitative competitive moat analysis scoring five pillars of durable advantage — cost leadership, brand intangibles, switching costs, network effects, and efficient scale — using industry percentile rankings on a 0–100 scale.

NARROW EDGE
58.6 / 100
NoneWeakNarrowWide
Primary source: Cost Advantage  ·  ROIC: 19.6%
Cost Advantage ★
73
Intangibles
51
Switching Cost
59
Network Effect
40
Scale
70
The Edge Score quantifies a company's competitive moat using five pillars: Cost Advantage (20%, operating margin and SG&A efficiency vs industry peers), Intangible Assets (25%, gross margin premium, R&D intensity, brand pricing power), Switching Costs (25%, revenue stability, earnings consistency, customer retention proxied by operating leverage), Network Effects (15%, revenue growth with expanding margins, market share dominance), and Efficient Scale (15%, market concentration, ROIC sustainability). Each pillar is scored 0–100 using industry percentile rankings, then weighted into a composite. Wide ≥ 70, Narrow ≥ 55, Weak ≥ 40, None < 40. PTRN has a Narrow competitive edge (58.6/100) — meaningful but not impregnable advantages over competitors. The primary source of advantage is Cost Advantage. ROIC of 19.6% confirms the company is generating returns well above its cost of capital — a hallmark of durable competitive advantages.

Analyst Insights

Wall Street analyst consensus based on price targets and buy/sell/hold recommendations from institutional research coverage over the trailing 12 months.

Analyst Price Targets
$26
Low
$29
Avg Target
$31
High
Based on 5 analysts since Aug 5, 2026 earnings
Analyst Recommendations
Strong Buy: 0Buy: 7Hold: 1Sell: 0Strong Sell: 0
Rating Summary
ConsensusBuy
Avg Target$28.83
Analysts6
Price Target Change History
DateFirmAnalystOldNewChangeUpside @ CallStock@Call
2026-08-06 Robert W. Baird — $18 $26 +8 +19.3% $21.80
2026-08-06 Goldman Sachs Eric Sheridan $27 $31 +4 +42.9% $21.70
2026-08-06 Evercore ISI — $23 $29 +6 +31.0% $22.14
2026-08-06 BMO Capital — $19 $28 +9 +18.5% $23.63
2026-08-06 Needham Bernie McTernan $24 $29 +5 +22.7% $23.63
2026-08-03 KeyBanc — $18 $30 +12 +30.3% $23.02
2026-07-14 Jefferies — $20 $30 +10 +5.5% $28.44
2026-06-29 Goldman Sachs Eric Sheridan $17 $27 +10 +17.9% $22.90
2026-05-07 Needham — $22 $24 +2 +68.4% $14.25
2026-03-06 Stifel Nicolaus Mark Kelley $22 $21 -1 +99.9% $10.51
2025-12-11 Jefferies — $18 $20 +2 +56.6% $12.77
2025-11-06 Evercore ISI — $19 $23 +4 +23.8% $18.59
2025-11-06 Stifel Nicolaus — $18 $22 +4 +18.2% $18.62
2025-11-06 Needham — $18 $22 +4 +18.5% $18.56
2025-10-14 Evercore ISI — Initiated $19 — +36.0% $13.97
2025-10-14 Needham Bernie McTernan Initiated $18 — +28.8% $13.97
2025-10-14 BMO Capital — Initiated $19 — +36.0% $13.97
2025-10-14 Stifel Nicolaus Mark Kelley Initiated $18 — +28.8% $13.97
2025-10-14 Robert W. Baird — Initiated $18 — +28.8% $13.97
2025-10-14 KeyBanc — Initiated $18 — +28.8% $13.97
2025-10-14 Jefferies — Initiated $18 — +28.8% $13.97
2025-10-14 Goldman Sachs Eric Sheridan Initiated $17 — +21.7% $13.97

Financial Rating

Composite financial health rating (A+ to F) based on discounted cash flow valuation, return on equity, return on assets, debt-to-equity leverage, and relative P/E and P/B multiples.

C
Oct 27, 2026
DCF
3
ROE
1
ROA
1
D/E
4
P/E
1
P/B
1
The Financial Rating evaluates six fundamental factors — discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation, return on equity (ROE), return on assets (ROA), debt-to-equity leverage (D/E), and relative price-to-earnings (P/E) and price-to-book (P/B) multiples — each scored 1–5. PTRN receives an overall rating of C. Strongest factors: D/E (4/5). Areas of concern: ROE (1/5), ROA (1/5), P/E (1/5), P/B (1/5).
Rating Change History
DateFromTo
2026-09-04 C+ C
2026-08-26 C C+
2026-08-25 C+ C
2026-08-24 C C+
2026-08-10 C+ C
2026-07-28 B- C+
2026-07-27 C+ B-
2026-04-09 B- C+
2026-04-08 C+ B-
2026-04-01 B- C+

InsiderStreet Scorecard

Proprietary multi-factor scorecard rating companies across seven fundamental dimensions — profitability, balance sheet strength, earnings quality, growth, value, momentum, and safety — each scored 0–100.

★ ★ ★ ★ ★ 44 Grade D
Profitability
18
Balance Sheet
94
Earnings Quality
36
Growth
—
Value
32
Momentum
—
Safety
100
Cash Flow
52
The InsiderStreet Scorecard rates companies across eight dimensions: Profitability (margins, ROA, ROE), Balance Sheet (leverage, liquidity, coverage), Earnings Quality (accruals, cash conversion), Growth (revenue and earnings trajectory), Value (P/E, P/B, earnings yield, Graham criteria), Momentum (revenue and earnings acceleration), Safety (Altman Z-Score risk adjustment), and Cash Flow (operating cash flow quality, FCF conversion, cash coverage). The overall score blends 35% quality, 35% value, and 30% momentum, with a penalty for distress-zone Altman scores. PTRN scores highest in Safety (100/100) and lowest in Profitability (18/100). A grade of D flags significant fundamental concerns across multiple dimensions.

Risk & Quality Signals

Academic financial models used by institutional investors to assess bankruptcy risk, earnings manipulation, financial strength, and credit quality.

Altman Z-Score
9.95
Safe Zone
Piotroski F-Score
3/9
✗ ✓ ✗ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✗ ✗
Beneish M-Score
—
—
Ohlson O-Score
-7.79
Bankruptcy prob: 0.0%
Low Risk
Credit Rating
AA+
Score: 92.6/100
Earnings Quality
—
OCF/NI: -0.99x
Accruals: -25.5%
The Altman Z-Score (1968) combines five ratios — working capital, retained earnings, EBIT, market value of equity, and sales, all relative to total assets or liabilities — into a single bankruptcy predictor. PTRN scores 9.95, placing it in the Safe Zone (safe > 2.99, distress < 1.81). Bankruptcy is statistically unlikely within the next two years. The Piotroski F-Score (2000) is a 9-point binary checklist — four profitability tests (positive ROA, positive cash flow, improving ROA, cash flow exceeding net income), three leverage tests (declining debt ratio, improving current ratio, no share dilution), and two efficiency tests (improving gross margin, improving asset turnover). Each pass scores 1 point. PTRN scores 3/9, suggesting weak financial fundamentals — the company fails the majority of these accounting tests. The Ohlson O-Score (1980) is a 9-variable logistic regression that estimates bankruptcy probability using firm size, leverage, working capital, current ratio, profitability (ROA), cash flow coverage, negative equity flag, consecutive losses flag, and earnings trajectory. The raw score is converted to a probability via logistic transformation. PTRN's implied 0.0% bankruptcy probability is well within safe territory. Our Credit Rating model scores companies on five weighted components — solvency (30%), earning power (25%), leverage (20%), liquidity (15%), and cash flow quality (10%) — then blends the absolute score with sector and industry peer rankings. For companies with large buyback programs, equity is adjusted by adding back cumulative 5-year repurchases (capped at 80% of FCF generated) to avoid penalizing shareholder-friendly capital allocation. PTRN receives an estimated rating of AA+ (score: 92.6/100).

Valuation

Key valuation multiples comparing the stock's market price to its earnings, revenue, book value, and cash flows. Lower multiples may indicate relative undervaluation versus peers.

P/E
-20.86x
PEG
0.05x
P/S
0.84x
P/B
4.46x
P/FCF
43.01x
P/OCF
33.50x
EV/EBITDA
127.76x
EV/Revenue
1.42x
EV/EBIT
312.30x
EV/FCF
40.23x
Earnings Yield
-3.01%
FCF Yield
2.33%
Shareholder Yield
0.08%
Graham Number
—
Equity-based multiples (P/E, P/B, P/FCF) compare the stock price to per-share fundamentals and are affected by capital structure. Enterprise value multiples (EV/EBITDA, EV/Revenue, EV/FCF) strip out debt and cash, making them more useful for cross-company comparisons regardless of how companies are financed. The Graham Number — √(22.5 × EPS × Book Value) — is Benjamin Graham's formula for the maximum price a defensive investor should pay. PTRN currently has negative earnings — the P/E ratio is not meaningful.

DuPont Decomposition (5-Factor)

The 5-factor DuPont framework breaks Return on Equity into its component drivers — tax efficiency, interest burden, operating profitability, asset utilization, and financial leverage — to reveal what truly drives shareholder returns.

Tax Burden
-8.776
NI / EBT
×
Interest Burden
1.146
EBT / EBIT
×
EBIT Margin
0.005
EBIT / Rev
×
Asset Turnover
2.809
Rev / Assets
×
Equity Multiplier
1.661
Assets / Equity
=
ROE
-21.3%
The 5-factor DuPont identity decomposes ROE as: Tax Burden × Interest Burden × EBIT Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier = ROE. This reveals whether returns are driven by operating performance, financial leverage, or tax efficiency — three very different sources of profitability. PTRN's ROE of -21.3% is driven by Asset Turnover (2.809), indicating efficient use of assets to generate revenue. A tax burden ratio of -8.78 suggests the company retains less than 60% of pre-tax earnings after taxes.

Graham-Dodd Adjusted Valuation

Our adaptation of Graham's growth formula (Fair P/E = 8.5 + 2g) from The Intelligent Investor. The classic version relies on analyst growth projections, which can be unreliable. This adjusted model substitutes the company's realized 3-year EPS CAGR — a backward-looking, verifiable measure of actual earnings power — grounding the valuation in demonstrated performance rather than forecasts.

Two adjustments we make, and why. Growth is capped at 15%. Graham defined g as expected growth over the next seven to ten years, not last year's rate. Across US companies since 1994 the median realized 7-year EPS growth is 5–8% regardless of how fast a company grew beforehand, and of 4,457 company-quarters that grew faster than 200%, none sustained it. Uncapped, the formula assigned fair multiples in the hundreds to companies that had never held that rate — and scored worse than simply reading the P/E. Capped, it carries real information. The verdict has three states, not two. Tested over 377,249 stock-months, this ratio only separates outcomes at its extremes: below 0.25 beat the universe by 1.3 points a year, above 3.0 lagged by 2.7, and everything in between sat inside a one-point band. Rather than call two-thirds of the market "undervalued" on a threshold of 1.0, we say Neutral where the model cannot tell — which is most of the time.

Adj. Growth Rate
0.00%
Fair P/E
8.50x
Intrinsic Value
—
Price/Value
—
Margin of Safety
—
Premium
—

Profitability Trends

Historical profitability ratios tracking how efficiently the company converts revenue into returns for shareholders over time.

Leverage & Solvency Trends

Debt and liquidity metrics showing the company's financial leverage and ability to meet short-term and long-term obligations.

Efficiency & Working Capital Trends

Operating efficiency metrics measuring how quickly the company converts inventory to sales, collects receivables, and manages its cash conversion cycle.

Growth Trends (YoY %)

Year-over-year growth rates for key financial metrics, showing the trajectory of revenue, earnings, and cash flow generation.

Earnings Stability

R-squared of linear regression measuring how predictably revenue, earnings, and margins follow a trend over the trailing 5 years. 1.0 = perfectly predictable; lower values indicate erratic or cyclical behavior.

Monte Carlo Price Simulation

Geometric Brownian Motion with 1,000 antithetic paths over 1 year, seeded from 278 days of historical volatility. Percentile bands show the range of statistically plausible outcomes — this is a statistical model, not a forecast.

Current Price
$16.27
Median 1Y
$13.33
5th Pctile
$4.35
95th Pctile
$40.77
Ann. Volatility
68.9%
Analyst Target
$28.83
25th–75th percentile 5th–95th percentile Median path Historical Analyst target

Executive Compensation

C-suite compensation breakdown including salary, stock awards, options, and incentive pay. The CEO-to-employee pay ratio and Gini coefficient measure pay distribution fairness.

C-Suite Compensation

ExecutiveSalaryStockTotal
David Wright Co-Founder;
Chairman of the Board; Chief Executive Officer (Principal Executive Officer)
$835,000 $88,705,896 $89,541,384
Jason Beesley Financial
ancial Officer (Principal Financial Officer)
$731,000 $39,303,314 $40,537,239
Melanie Alder Co-Founder;
Chief Strategy Officer
$300,000 $624,000 $936,000

CEO Pay Ratio

206:1
CEO-to-Employee Pay Ratio
CEO Total Comp: $89,541,384
Avg Employee Cost (SGA/emp): $435,629
Employees: 2,300

C-Suite Pay Equality (Gini)

CEO Compensation Mix

Workforce & Productivity

Workforce efficiency metrics measuring revenue, profit, and R&D spend per employee — key indicators of operational leverage and human capital productivity.

Employees
2,300
Revenue / Employee
$1,087,528
Rev: $2,501,315,000
Profit / Employee
$7,063
NI: $16,246,000
SGA / Employee
$435,629
Avg labor cost proxy
R&D / Employee
$20,127
Innovation spend

Scaling Efficiency

All Ratios & Metrics

Complete fundamental data with up to 20 periods of history, sparkline trends, and current values across 13 categories and 130+ financial metrics.

Profitability
Metric Trend Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Q2'26 Current
ROE -41.2% -33.4% -27.1% -21.3% -21.31%
ROA -26.4% -20.5% -17.1% -12.8% -12.82%
ROIC -18.3% -8.4% 1.4% 19.6% 19.64%
ROCE -16.2% -10.4% -3.4% 2.0% 1.97%
Gross Margin 43.7% 42.9% 43.3% 43.8% 43.84%
Operating Margin -9.4% 3.6% 5.1% 4.1% 4.05%
Net Margin -34.9% 4.0% 3.8% 3.1% 3.14%
EBITDA Margin -13.6% 4.4% 6.1% 4.7% 4.72%
FCF Margin 5.6% 2.9% 4.8% 3.5% 3.52%
OCF Margin 6.3% 3.6% 5.7% 4.5% 4.52%
ROIC Economic snapshot only 10.83%
Cash ROA snapshot only 12.70%
Cash ROIC snapshot only 38.80%
CROIC snapshot only 30.23%
NOPAT Margin snapshot only 2.29%
Pretax Margin snapshot only 0.52%
R&D / Revenue snapshot only 1.94%
SGA / Revenue snapshot only 34.65%
SBC / Revenue snapshot only 0.36%
Valuation
Metric Trend Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Q2'26 Current
P/E Ratio -10.82 -10.48 -13.51 -33.18 -20.859
P/S Ratio 3.77 1.49 1.04 1.51 0.841
P/B Ratio 4.46 3.50 3.66 7.07 4.458
P/FCF 67.31 52.12 21.79 43.01 43.006
P/OCF 59.62 41.58 18.35 33.50 33.504
EV/EBITDA -24.49 -32.38 -241.77 127.76 127.764
EV/Revenue 3.33 1.30 0.90 1.42 1.417
EV/EBIT -23.34 -28.03 -87.70 312.30 312.299
EV/FCF 59.45 45.51 18.73 40.23 40.231
Earnings Yield -9.2% -9.5% -7.4% -3.0% -3.01%
FCF Yield 1.5% 1.9% 4.6% 2.3% 2.33%
PEG Ratio snapshot only 0.049
Price/Tangible Book snapshot only 7.685
EV/OCF snapshot only 31.342
EV/Gross Profit snapshot only 3.263
Acquirers Multiple snapshot only 104.201
Shareholder Yield snapshot only 0.08%
Leverage & Solvency
Metric Trend Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Q2'26 Current
Current Ratio 2.57 2.34 2.45 2.35 2.352
Quick Ratio 1.61 1.47 1.54 1.51 1.514
Debt/Equity 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.08 0.079
Net Debt/Equity -0.52 -0.44 -0.51 -0.46 -0.456
Debt/Assets 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.05 0.048
Debt/EBITDA -0.36 -0.56 -3.92 1.54 1.535
Net Debt/EBITDA 3.24 4.70 39.48 -8.81 -8.813
Interest Coverage — — — — —
Equity Multiplier 1.56 1.63 1.59 1.66 1.661
Cash Ratio snapshot only 0.910
Cash to Debt snapshot only 6.740
FCF to Debt snapshot only 2.068
Defensive Interval snapshot only 159.4 days
Efficiency & Turnover
Metric Trend Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Q2'26 Current
Asset Turnover 0.76 1.44 2.21 2.81 2.809
Inventory Turnover 1.34 2.62 4.04 5.36 5.356
Receivables Turnover 6.03 7.69 15.12 14.51 14.506
Payables Turnover 1.66 2.81 4.59 5.68 5.678
DSO 61 47 24 25 25.2 days
DIO 272 139 90 68 68.1 days
DPO 220 130 79 64 64.3 days
Cash Conversion Cycle 113 57 35 29 29.0 days
Fixed Asset Turnover snapshot only 29.355
Operating Cycle snapshot only 93.3 days
Cash Velocity snapshot only 8.713
Capital Intensity snapshot only 0.356
Growth Quality
Metric Trend Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Q2'26 Current
Revenue Stability — — — — —
Earnings Stability — — — — —
Margin Stability — — — — —
Rev. Growth Consistency 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000
Earn. Growth Consistency 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000
FCF Positive Streak 0 0 0 0 0
Earnings Persistence — — — — —
Earnings Smoothness — — — — —
ROE Trend — — — — —
Gross Margin Trend — — — — —
FCF Margin Trend — — — — —
Sustainable Growth Rate — — — — —
Internal Growth Rate — — — — —
Cash Flow Quality
Metric Trend Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Q2'26 Current
OCF/Net Income -0.18 -0.25 -0.74 -0.99 -0.990
FCF/OCF 0.89 0.80 0.84 0.78 0.779
FCF/Net Income snapshot only -0.772
OCF/EBITDA snapshot only 4.076
CapEx/Revenue 0.7% 0.7% 0.9% 1.0% 1.00%
CapEx/Depreciation snapshot only 1.524
Accruals Ratio -0.31 -0.26 -0.30 -0.26 -0.255
Sloan Accruals snapshot only 0.138
Cash Flow Adequacy snapshot only 4.526
Dividends & Buybacks
Metric Trend Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Q2'26 Current
Dividend Yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.00%
Dividend/Share $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Payout Ratio — — — — —
FCF Payout Ratio 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.00%
Total Payout Ratio — — — — —
Div. Increase Streak — — — — —
Chowder Number — — — — —
Buyback Yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.08%
Net Buyback Yield -5.6% -6.6% -5.9% -2.9% -2.88%
Total Shareholder Return -5.6% -6.6% -5.9% -2.9% -2.88%
DuPont Factors
Metric Trend Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Q2'26 Current
Tax Burden (NI/EBT) 2.44 3.06 7.55 -8.78 -8.776
Interest Burden (EBT/EBIT) 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.15 1.146
EBIT Margin -0.14 -0.05 -0.01 0.00 0.005
Asset Turnover 0.76 1.44 2.21 2.81 2.809
Equity Multiplier 1.56 1.63 1.59 1.66 1.661
Per Share
Metric Trend Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Q2'26 Current
EPS (Diluted TTM) $-1.27 $-1.10 $-0.92 $-0.76 $-0.76
Book Value/Share $3.07 $3.29 $3.40 $3.56 $3.65
Tangible Book/Share $2.91 $2.98 $3.10 $3.28 $3.28
Revenue/Share $3.63 $7.73 $11.91 $16.63 $17.03
FCF/Share $0.20 $0.22 $0.57 $0.59 $0.60
OCF/Share $0.23 $0.28 $0.68 $0.75 $0.77
Cash/Share $1.78 $1.64 $1.92 $1.91 $1.95
EBITDA/Share $-0.49 $-0.31 $-0.04 $0.18 $0.18
Debt/Share $0.18 $0.17 $0.17 $0.28 $0.28
Net Debt/Share $-1.60 $-1.46 $-1.74 $-1.63 $-1.63
Academic Models
Metric Trend Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Q2'26 Current
Altman Z-Score — — — — 9.952
Altman Z-Prime snapshot only 14.712
Piotroski F-Score 3 3 3 3 3
Beneish M-Score — — — — —
Ohlson O-Score snapshot only -7.794
ROIC (Greenblatt) snapshot only 2.22%
Net-Net WC snapshot only $2.58
EVA snapshot only $33840056.86
Credit
Metric Trend Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Q2'26 Current
Credit Rating snapshot only AA+
Credit Score 79.98 81.55 94.55 92.61 92.613
Credit Grade snapshot only 2
Implied Spread (bps) snapshot only 65.000
Industry Credit Rank snapshot only 90
Sector Credit Rank snapshot only 89

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For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Data sourced from SEC filings. Privacy Terms