SJM NYSE
The J. M. Smucker Company
1W: +1.2%
1M: +6.3%
3M: +4.5%
YTD: +34.5%
1Y: +26.6%
3Y: +23.2%
5Y: +22.2%
$127.41
-1.23 (-0.96%)
After Hours: $128.14 (+0.73, +0.57%)
Weekly Expected Move ±4.1%
$119
$125
$130
$135
$141
Credit Risk of going bust: lower than 66% of companies Debt: 33.4% of company value Bonds: $122.8M held by 195 funds, 74 bp over Treasuries → details ▾
Of US companies ranked in the safest four tenths, about 1 in 3,500 filed for bankruptcy within a year (2020-2025).
If the stock fell to about $3.72 (down 97%), The J. M. Smucker Company would be worth roughly what it owes.
Total debt $6.90B against a stock market value of $13.74B.
Distance to default 6.92 (Merton model): prices to 2026-10-26, balance sheet 2026-07-31, debt counted $3.54B (short-term plus half of long-term), stock volatility 28.7%; Altman Z 1.50. A ranking and a back-test, not a forecast.
Bond figures are fund-reported marks (SEC N-PORT) as of Jul 2026. How these are computed.
If the stock fell to about $3.72 (down 97%), The J. M. Smucker Company would be worth roughly what it owes.
Total debt $6.90B against a stock market value of $13.74B.
Distance to default 6.92 (Merton model): prices to 2026-10-26, balance sheet 2026-07-31, debt counted $3.54B (short-term plus half of long-term), stock volatility 28.7%; Altman Z 1.50. A ranking and a back-test, not a forecast.
Bond figures are fund-reported marks (SEC N-PORT) as of Jul 2026. How these are computed.
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Supply Chain
Oct Typical
☀️
Sunny
+5.8% YTD avg
Midterm Year
⛅
Partly Cloudy
+2.7% YTD avg
2026 Now
☀️
Sunny
Above typical
20yr Avg YTD
+5.8%
Day 206 of 252
Midterm Year YTD
+2.7%
Presidential cycle avg
2026 YTD
+33.2%
Above 20yr avg
Typical Vol
21%
Annualized
Monthly Weather Forecast
Jan
20yr
⛅
+0.3%
Midterm
☁️
-0.9%
60% win
21% vol
Feb
20yr
☀️
+0.6%
Midterm
🌧️
-3.4%
60% win
26% vol
Mar
20yr
☀️
+4.0%
Midterm
🌧️
-4.3%
75% win
27% vol
Apr
20yr
☁️
+4.4%
Midterm
🌧️
-4.8%
55% win
19% vol
May
20yr
☁️
+5.1%
Midterm
⛈️
-6.8%
50% win
19% vol
Jun
20yr
☁️
+5.0%
Midterm
🌧️
-2.3%
45% win
29% vol
Jul
20yr
☀️
+6.4%
Midterm
🌧️
-2.9%
85% win
20% vol
Aug
20yr
⛅
+6.5%
Midterm
☁️
-0.5%
45% win
27% vol
Sep
20yr
🌧️
+5.5%
Midterm
🌧️
-1.4%
40% win
20% vol
Oct
20yr
⛅
+5.8%
Midterm
⛅
+3.7%
57% win
21% vol
Now:
+7.2%
Nov
20yr
⛅
+7.0%
Midterm
⛅
+3.2%
55% win
29% vol
Dec
20yr
⛅
+0.9%
Midterm
🌧️
-0.9%
55% win
18% vol
Seasonality (20yr)
Updated: 2026-10-27
YTD: +33.2%