— Know what they know.
Not Investment Advice

STAY NASDAQ

Extended Stay America, Inc.
1W: +1.1% 1M: +4.2% 3M: +6.0% 1Y: +79.2% 3Y: -3.5% 5Y: +35.7%
$20.46
Last traded 2021-06-15 — delisted
NASDAQ · Consumer Cyclical · Travel Lodging

Edge Score

Quantitative competitive moat analysis scoring five pillars of durable advantage — cost leadership, brand intangibles, switching costs, network effects, and efficient scale — using industry percentile rankings on a 0–100 scale.

WEAK EDGE
40.0 / 100
NoneWeakNarrowWide
Primary source: Efficient Scale  ·  ROIC: 0.1%  ·  5Y Avg: 2.0%
Cost Advantage
47
Intangibles
39
Switching Cost
36
Network Effect
19
Scale ★
60
The Edge Score quantifies a company's competitive moat using five pillars: Cost Advantage (20%, operating margin and SG&A efficiency vs industry peers), Intangible Assets (25%, gross margin premium, R&D intensity, brand pricing power), Switching Costs (25%, revenue stability, earnings consistency, customer retention proxied by operating leverage), Network Effects (15%, revenue growth with expanding margins, market share dominance), and Efficient Scale (15%, market concentration, ROIC sustainability). Each pillar is scored 0–100 using industry percentile rankings, then weighted into a composite. Wide ≥ 70, Narrow ≥ 55, Weak ≥ 40, None < 40. STAY shows a Weak competitive edge (40.0/100) — limited structural advantages that may face competitive pressure. The primary source of advantage is Efficient Scale. ROIC of 0.1% suggests modest returns relative to capital deployed.

Analyst Insights

Wall Street analyst consensus based on price targets and buy/sell/hold recommendations from institutional research coverage over the trailing 12 months.

Analyst Price Targets
Analyst Recommendations
Strong Buy: 0Buy: 8Hold: 9Sell: 0Strong Sell: 0
Rating Summary
ConsensusHold
Avg Target$—
Analysts0

InsiderStreet Scorecard

Proprietary multi-factor scorecard rating companies across seven fundamental dimensions — profitability, balance sheet strength, earnings quality, growth, value, momentum, and safety — each scored 0–100.

★ ★ ★ ★ ★ 12 Grade D
Profitability
37
Balance Sheet
29
Earnings Quality
59
Growth
45
Value
33
Momentum
36
Safety
15
Cash Flow
9
The InsiderStreet Scorecard rates companies across eight dimensions: Profitability (margins, ROA, ROE), Balance Sheet (leverage, liquidity, coverage), Earnings Quality (accruals, cash conversion), Growth (revenue and earnings trajectory), Value (P/E, P/B, earnings yield, Graham criteria), Momentum (revenue and earnings acceleration), Safety (Altman Z-Score risk adjustment), and Cash Flow (operating cash flow quality, FCF conversion, cash coverage). The overall score blends 35% quality, 35% value, and 30% momentum, with a penalty for distress-zone Altman scores. STAY scores highest in Earnings Quality (59/100) and lowest in Cash Flow (9/100). A grade of D flags significant fundamental concerns across multiple dimensions.

Risk & Quality Signals

Academic financial models used by institutional investors to assess bankruptcy risk, earnings manipulation, financial strength, and credit quality.

Altman Z-Score
1.18
Distress Zone
Piotroski F-Score
3/9
✓ ✗ ✓ ✗ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗
Beneish M-Score
-2.27
Unlikely Manipulator
Ohlson O-Score
-6.20
Bankruptcy prob: 0.2%
Low Risk
Credit Rating
B+
Score: 33.1/100
Trend: Deteriorating
Earnings Quality
25/100
OCF/NI: -0.01x
Accruals: 2.2%
The Altman Z-Score (1968) combines five ratios — working capital, retained earnings, EBIT, market value of equity, and sales, all relative to total assets or liabilities — into a single bankruptcy predictor. STAY scores 1.18, placing it in the Distress Zone (safe > 2.99, distress < 1.81). Historically, companies in this range face elevated bankruptcy risk. The Piotroski F-Score (2000) is a 9-point binary checklist — four profitability tests (positive ROA, positive cash flow, improving ROA, cash flow exceeding net income), three leverage tests (declining debt ratio, improving current ratio, no share dilution), and two efficiency tests (improving gross margin, improving asset turnover). Each pass scores 1 point. STAY scores 3/9, suggesting weak financial fundamentals — the company fails the majority of these accounting tests. The Beneish M-Score (1999) is an 8-variable model that detects earnings manipulation by comparing year-over-year changes in receivables, gross margins, asset quality, sales growth, depreciation, SG&A, leverage, and accruals. Scores above −1.78 statistically resemble past manipulators. STAY's score of -2.27 falls below this threshold, suggesting earnings are unlikely to be manipulated. The Ohlson O-Score (1980) is a 9-variable logistic regression that estimates bankruptcy probability using firm size, leverage, working capital, current ratio, profitability (ROA), cash flow coverage, negative equity flag, consecutive losses flag, and earnings trajectory. The raw score is converted to a probability via logistic transformation. STAY's implied 0.2% bankruptcy probability is well within safe territory. Our Credit Rating model scores companies on five weighted components — solvency (30%), earning power (25%), leverage (20%), liquidity (15%), and cash flow quality (10%) — then blends the absolute score with sector and industry peer rankings. For companies with large buyback programs, equity is adjusted by adding back cumulative 5-year repurchases (capped at 80% of FCF generated) to avoid penalizing shareholder-friendly capital allocation. STAY receives an estimated rating of B+ (score: 33.1/100), with a deteriorating trend. The Earnings Quality score measures how well reported earnings are backed by real cash. It evaluates the operating cash flow to net income ratio (OCF/NI ≥ 1.0 means every dollar of earnings is cash-backed) and the accruals ratio (the gap between earnings and cash flow relative to assets — lower is better). STAY's score of 25/100 is low — reported earnings may not be fully supported by cash flows.

Valuation

Key valuation multiples comparing the stock's market price to its earnings, revenue, book value, and cash flows. Lower multiples may indicate relative undervaluation versus peers.

P/E
37.89x
PEG
-0.33x
P/S
0.00x
P/B
5.34x
P/FCF
151.97x
P/OCF
—
EV/EBITDA
14.50x
EV/Revenue
5.61x
EV/EBIT
29.66x
EV/FCF
250.49x
Earnings Yield
2.65%
FCF Yield
0.66%
Shareholder Yield
0.88%
Graham Number
$6.73
Equity-based multiples (P/E, P/B, P/FCF) compare the stock price to per-share fundamentals and are affected by capital structure. Enterprise value multiples (EV/EBITDA, EV/Revenue, EV/FCF) strip out debt and cash, making them more useful for cross-company comparisons regardless of how companies are financed. The Graham Number — √(22.5 × EPS × Book Value) — is Benjamin Graham's formula for the maximum price a defensive investor should pay. At 37.9x earnings, STAY commands a growth premium. Graham's intrinsic value formula yields $6.73 per share, 204% below the current price.

DuPont Decomposition (5-Factor)

The 5-factor DuPont framework breaks Return on Equity into its component drivers — tax efficiency, interest burden, operating profitability, asset utilization, and financial leverage — to reveal what truly drives shareholder returns.

Tax Burden
1.439
NI / EBT
×
Interest Burden
0.332
EBT / EBIT
×
EBIT Margin
0.189
EBIT / Rev
×
Asset Turnover
0.246
Rev / Assets
×
Equity Multiplier
6.250
Assets / Equity
=
ROE
13.9%
The 5-factor DuPont identity decomposes ROE as: Tax Burden × Interest Burden × EBIT Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier = ROE. This reveals whether returns are driven by operating performance, financial leverage, or tax efficiency — three very different sources of profitability. STAY's ROE of 13.9% is driven by financial leverage (equity multiplier: 6.25x). Note: high leverage means ROE is amplified by debt rather than operational performance. A tax burden ratio of 1.44 indicates minimal tax leakage — the company retains over 90% of pre-tax earnings.

Graham-Dodd Adjusted Valuation

Our adaptation of Graham's growth formula (Fair P/E = 8.5 + 2g) from The Intelligent Investor. The classic version relies on analyst growth projections, which can be unreliable. This adjusted model substitutes the company's realized 3-year EPS CAGR — a backward-looking, verifiable measure of actual earnings power — grounding the valuation in demonstrated performance rather than forecasts.

Two adjustments we make, and why. Growth is capped at 15%. Graham defined g as expected growth over the next seven to ten years, not last year's rate. Across US companies since 1994 the median realized 7-year EPS growth is 5–8% regardless of how fast a company grew beforehand, and of 4,457 company-quarters that grew faster than 200%, none sustained it. Uncapped, the formula assigned fair multiples in the hundreds to companies that had never held that rate — and scored worse than simply reading the P/E. Capped, it carries real information. The verdict has three states, not two. Tested over 377,249 stock-months, this ratio only separates outcomes at its extremes: below 0.25 beat the universe by 1.3 points a year, above 3.0 lagged by 2.7, and everything in between sat inside a one-point band. Rather than call two-thirds of the market "undervalued" on a threshold of 1.0, we say Neutral where the model cannot tell — which is most of the time.

Adj. Growth Rate
12.67%
Fair P/E
33.84x
Intrinsic Value
$17.74
Price/Value
1.11x
Margin of Safety
-11.31%
Premium
11.31%
Assessment
Neutral
Graham's classic formula uses analyst-projected growth to estimate a fair P/E (8.5 + 2g). Our adjusted version replaces that projection with STAY's realized 12.7% 3-year EPS CAGR, capped at 15% — demonstrated performance rather than forecasts, held to a rate companies have historically sustained. STAY trades at a 11% premium to its adjusted intrinsic value of $17.74, suggesting the market is pricing in future growth beyond what historical earnings support. The adjusted fair P/E of 33.8x compares to the current market P/E of 37.9x.

Profitability Trends

Historical profitability ratios tracking how efficiently the company converts revenue into returns for shareholders over time.

Leverage & Solvency Trends

Debt and liquidity metrics showing the company's financial leverage and ability to meet short-term and long-term obligations.

Efficiency & Working Capital Trends

Operating efficiency metrics measuring how quickly the company converts inventory to sales, collects receivables, and manages its cash conversion cycle.

Growth Trends (YoY %)

Year-over-year growth rates for key financial metrics, showing the trajectory of revenue, earnings, and cash flow generation.

Earnings Stability

R-squared of linear regression measuring how predictably revenue, earnings, and margins follow a trend over the trailing 5 years. 1.0 = perfectly predictable; lower values indicate erratic or cyclical behavior.

Monte Carlo Price Simulation

Geometric Brownian Motion with 1,000 antithetic paths over 1 year, seeded from 1800 days of historical volatility. Percentile bands show the range of statistically plausible outcomes — this is a statistical model, not a forecast.

Current Price
$20.46
Median 1Y
$19.15
5th Pctile
$10.95
95th Pctile
$33.83
Ann. Volatility
33.5%
25th–75th percentile 5th–95th percentile Median path Historical
All Ratios & Metrics

Complete fundamental data with up to 20 periods of history, sparkline trends, and current values across 13 categories and 130+ financial metrics.

Profitability
Metric Trend Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16 Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Current
ROE 12.6% 13.2% 8.4% 9.1% 7.8% 8.3% 10.0% 9.1% 10.5% 12.0% 14.4% 15.4% 13.4% 9.3% 9.4% 7.2% -1.8% -4.1% 14.0% 13.9% 13.91%
ROA 2.5% 2.7% 1.6% 1.8% 1.6% 1.8% 1.9% 1.7% 2.1% 2.5% 2.8% 3.0% 2.7% 1.9% 1.8% 1.3% -0.3% -0.7% 2.5% 2.2% 2.23%
ROIC 8.3% 8.9% 9.3% 9.2% 8.8% 8.7% 8.7% 9.6% 9.8% 10.5% 10.9% 10.6% 10.2% 9.7% 8.3% 7.5% -1.8% 4.7% -0.0% 0.1% 0.08%
ROCE 11.4% 12.1% 9.1% 8.9% 8.9% 8.8% 9.0% 9.6% 9.9% 9.9% 10.0% 9.9% 9.6% 8.5% 8.2% 7.0% 5.0% 4.5% 9.4% 5.2% 5.18%
Gross Margin 55.2% 57.7% 53.9% 51.3% 56.0% 56.6% 52.8% 51.5% 56.4% 54.7% 49.6% 48.9% 53.1% 52.6% 47.3% 43.9% 40.4% 46.3% -69.9% 42.7% 42.68%
Operating Margin 31.5% 35.0% 26.4% 22.5% 32.0% 33.6% 28.0% 24.9% 33.4% 33.6% 25.7% 23.0% 31.0% 31.0% 20.1% 15.9% 8.3% 19.9% -45.7% 17.1% 17.14%
Net Margin 18.2% 13.1% -18.4% 7.9% 15.3% 15.4% -16.5% 5.0% 19.3% 20.5% -13.4% 7.9% 16.5% 12.3% -16.5% 1.7% -5.4% 8.5% 30.8% 0.7% 0.74%
EBITDA Margin 47.8% 47.1% 14.8% 40.8% 46.5% 46.5% 15.5% 34.8% 48.2% 47.9% 16.1% 40.3% 45.9% 42.7% 37.3% 34.2% 29.5% 37.4% 51.7% 35.4% 35.42%
FCF Margin 12.2% 13.3% 15.2% 17.9% 18.8% 20.4% 25.5% 41.9% 40.9% 53.7% 55.1% 37.9% 37.5% 21.5% 11.4% 10.7% 4.7% 4.7% 0.0% 2.2% 2.24%
OCF Margin 31.0% 31.4% 32.9% 34.9% 35.1% 35.4% 34.6% 35.2% 35.1% 35.5% 35.3% 34.5% 34.2% 33.1% 32.8% 32.3% 27.5% 26.1% 0.0% -0.1% -0.09%
ROE 3Y Avg snapshot only 12.22%
ROE 5Y Avg snapshot only 11.11%
ROA 3Y Avg snapshot only 2.19%
ROIC 3Y Avg snapshot only 2.15%
ROIC Economic snapshot only 0.07%
Cash ROA snapshot only -0.02%
Cash ROIC snapshot only -0.03%
CROIC snapshot only 0.78%
NOPAT Margin snapshot only 0.24%
Pretax Margin snapshot only 6.28%
R&D / Revenue snapshot only 0.00%
SGA / Revenue snapshot only 21.61%
SBC / Revenue snapshot only 0.00%
Valuation
Metric Trend Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16 Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Current
P/E Ratio 27.10 23.71 45.49 40.99 56.01 52.00 46.34 53.93 49.00 37.57 25.86 28.22 29.42 35.30 38.83 24.91 -146.39 -70.00 27.42 37.67 37.889
P/S Ratio 2.36 2.24 2.50 2.44 2.93 3.03 2.85 2.95 3.19 2.97 2.29 2.70 2.57 2.24 2.22 1.08 1.78 2.00 2.53 3.41 0.000
P/B Ratio 3.33 3.07 4.00 3.93 4.60 4.53 4.68 5.02 5.22 4.53 3.71 4.26 3.83 3.36 3.89 1.97 3.05 3.15 3.87 5.15 5.340
P/FCF 19.42 16.80 16.48 13.68 15.61 14.87 11.16 7.04 7.79 5.53 4.15 7.12 6.84 10.43 19.51 10.05 37.85 42.42 — 151.97 151.971
P/OCF 7.62 7.13 7.60 7.01 8.36 8.56 8.23 8.39 9.09 8.36 6.49 7.81 7.50 6.75 6.76 3.34 6.49 7.65 — — —
EV/EBITDA 10.47 9.43 11.59 11.51 12.80 13.01 12.50 12.93 13.45 12.34 10.46 11.24 11.14 10.86 9.81 7.44 10.69 11.91 9.63 14.50 14.498
EV/Revenue 4.40 4.14 4.47 4.41 4.87 4.93 4.74 4.72 4.97 4.60 3.94 4.38 4.27 3.99 4.10 3.01 3.91 4.15 3.70 5.61 5.613
EV/EBIT 11.71 10.81 15.69 15.99 18.10 18.43 17.35 16.83 17.13 15.80 13.58 14.95 14.80 14.77 16.03 12.56 21.12 26.31 19.86 29.66 29.655
EV/FCF 36.24 31.05 29.43 24.69 25.93 24.17 18.56 11.26 12.14 8.57 7.15 11.56 11.37 18.60 36.02 28.00 82.99 88.27 — 250.49 250.492
Earnings Yield 3.7% 4.2% 2.2% 2.4% 1.8% 1.9% 2.2% 1.9% 2.0% 2.7% 3.9% 3.5% 3.4% 2.8% 2.6% 4.0% -0.7% -1.4% 3.6% 2.7% 2.65%
FCF Yield 5.1% 6.0% 6.1% 7.3% 6.4% 6.7% 9.0% 14.2% 12.8% 18.1% 24.1% 14.0% 14.6% 9.6% 5.1% 10.0% 2.6% 2.4% 0.0% 0.7% 0.66%
Price/Tangible Book snapshot only 5.828
EV/Gross Profit snapshot only 37.440
Acquirers Multiple snapshot only 2807.930
Shareholder Yield snapshot only 0.88%
Graham Number snapshot only $6.73
Leverage & Solvency
Metric Trend Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16 Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Current
Current Ratio 1.76 0.90 0.65 0.75 0.51 0.75 0.92 1.30 1.20 1.75 1.53 1.47 1.46 2.14 1.78 3.10 3.34 1.38 0.02 1.61 1.610
Quick Ratio 1.76 0.90 0.65 0.75 0.51 0.75 0.92 1.30 1.20 1.75 1.53 1.47 1.46 2.14 1.78 3.10 3.34 1.38 0.02 1.61 1.610
Debt/Equity 3.03 2.76 3.25 3.25 3.11 2.97 3.25 3.26 3.14 2.93 3.05 3.02 2.88 3.23 3.79 4.59 4.67 3.97 1.80 3.86 3.860
Net Debt/Equity 2.88 2.60 3.15 3.16 3.04 2.83 3.10 3.01 2.91 2.49 2.68 2.65 2.54 2.63 3.29 3.52 3.64 3.40 1.78 3.34 3.337
Debt/Assets 0.62 0.60 0.62 0.62 0.62 0.62 0.62 0.62 0.62 0.61 0.61 0.61 0.61 0.63 0.65 0.69 0.70 0.66 0.35 0.66 0.658
Debt/EBITDA 5.11 4.60 5.27 5.27 5.21 5.25 5.21 5.25 5.20 5.14 4.98 4.90 5.04 5.86 5.18 6.22 7.45 7.21 3.07 6.59 6.595
Net Debt/EBITDA 4.86 4.33 5.10 5.13 5.09 5.01 4.98 4.85 4.81 4.37 4.39 4.31 4.44 4.77 4.50 4.77 5.82 6.19 3.03 5.70 5.702
Interest Coverage 3.12 2.91 2.20 2.33 2.34 2.62 2.96 3.18 3.36 3.45 3.18 3.17 3.09 2.87 2.66 2.41 1.68 1.35 1.59 1.63 1.632
Equity Multiplier 4.87 4.59 5.26 5.20 4.99 4.81 5.22 5.26 5.06 4.77 4.99 4.94 4.74 5.10 5.79 6.64 6.69 6.02 5.20 5.87 5.869
Cash Ratio snapshot only 1.497
Debt Service Coverage snapshot only 3.339
Cash to Debt snapshot only 0.135
FCF to Debt snapshot only 0.009
Defensive Interval snapshot only 606.5 days
Efficiency & Turnover
Metric Trend Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16 Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Current
Asset Turnover 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.31 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.31 0.30 0.31 0.29 0.27 0.26 0.27 0.25 0.246
Inventory Turnover — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — —
Receivables Turnover 41.19 47.42 65.16 63.85 51.05 46.61 60.48 61.50 53.19 49.92 61.68 58.48 52.92 53.08 72.11 65.62 60.83 58.51 75.18 70.31 70.307
Payables Turnover 2.94 2.76 2.66 2.76 2.87 2.63 3.07 2.91 2.85 5.40 6.33 5.70 5.71 — — — — — 6.96 — —
DSO 9 8 6 6 7 8 6 6 7 7 6 6 7 7 5 6 6 6 5 5 5.2 days
DIO 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 days
DPO 124 132 137 132 127 139 119 125 128 68 58 64 64 0 0 0 0 0 52 0 —
Cash Conversion Cycle -115 -125 -132 -127 -120 -131 -113 -120 -121 -60 -52 -58 -57 7 5 6 6 6 -48 5 —
Fixed Asset Turnover snapshot only 0.303
Cash Velocity snapshot only 2.894
Capital Intensity snapshot only 3.882
Growth (YoY)
Metric Trend Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16 Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Current
Revenue 2.2% 0.0% -1.1% -0.8% 0.2% 0.4% 1.0% 1.2% 0.6% 0.9% -0.6% -2.7% -3.5% -5.0% -4.5% -3.8% -10.3% -12.8% -14.4% -14.2% -14.19%
Net Income 70.9% 1.0% -38.1% -30.0% -39.8% -38.1% 12.7% -7.1% 25.1% 37.1% 43.1% 69.9% 29.2% -23.9% -38.3% -56.4% -1.1% -1.4% 38.2% 79.1% 79.05%
EPS 73.4% 1.1% -35.7% -26.8% -37.4% -35.8% 15.5% -5.7% 27.6% 40.0% 46.2% 73.5% 30.2% -23.0% -36.2% -53.9% -1.1% -1.4% 41.1% 78.7% 78.67%
FCF -36.7% -30.4% -13.9% 25.4% 54.9% 53.3% 69.5% 1.4% 1.2% 1.7% 1.1% -12.1% -11.6% -62.0% -80.3% -72.7% -88.7% -80.9% -1.0% -82.1% -82.10%
EBITDA 30.4% 24.5% -7.7% -9.6% -9.4% -13.5% -0.8% -3.7% -2.3% -0.5% -1.1% 3.9% -0.0% -6.5% 5.9% -0.2% -14.3% -17.2% -21.4% -17.8% -17.85%
Op. Income -3.1% -6.3% -2.0% 0.0% 4.5% 3.0% 1.6% 3.5% 3.7% 5.4% 0.7% -4.3% -8.4% -12.2% -14.4% -17.9% -37.9% -48.7% -1.0% -99.3% -99.32%
OCF Growth snapshot only -1.00%
Asset Growth snapshot only -8.48%
Equity Growth snapshot only 3.61%
Debt Growth snapshot only -12.93%
Shares Change snapshot only 0.21%
Growth (CAGR)
Metric Trend Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16 Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Current
Revenue 3Y — — 67.8% 33.2% 14.1% 2.1% 1.9% 1.6% 1.0% 0.4% -0.3% -0.8% -0.9% -1.3% -1.4% -1.8% -4.5% -5.8% -6.7% -7.0% -7.05%
Revenue 5Y — — — — — — — — — — 36.5% 18.4% 7.6% 0.4% 0.1% -0.4% -2.3% -3.4% -4.1% -4.2% -4.22%
EPS 3Y — — — — 17.9% -3.3% 28.4% 14.2% 11.5% 23.2% 2.8% 6.2% 1.3% -11.5% 2.5% -9.0% — — 9.6% 12.7% 12.67%
EPS 5Y — — — — — — — — — — — — 22.2% -0.5% 14.6% 3.6% — — -0.5% -0.3% -0.25%
Net Income 3Y — — — — 15.9% -5.1% 25.8% 11.9% 8.8% 20.1% -0.1% 3.4% -0.9% -13.6% -0.1% -11.7% — — 6.9% 9.9% 9.87%
Net Income 5Y — — — — — — — — — — — — 20.3% -2.3% 12.0% 0.8% — — -3.2% -2.9% -2.91%
EBITDA 3Y — — 99.6% 45.3% 16.2% 4.8% 7.8% 5.5% 4.9% 2.3% -3.3% -3.3% -4.0% -7.0% 1.3% -0.1% -5.8% -8.3% -6.3% -5.2% -5.22%
EBITDA 5Y — — — — — — — — — — 50.8% 25.1% 8.9% 1.4% 5.6% 4.0% -0.2% -3.7% -5.5% -5.8% -5.80%
Gross Profit 3Y — — 71.7% 38.1% 17.0% 4.0% 3.9% 3.3% 2.3% 0.9% -0.1% -0.9% -1.4% -2.4% -3.6% -5.0% -9.6% -11.9% -38.6% -39.5% -39.51%
Gross Profit 5Y — — — — — — — — — — 37.9% 20.1% 7.9% 0.2% -0.1% -1.2% -4.5% -6.8% -25.0% -25.6% -25.58%
Op. Income 3Y — — 90.8% 48.5% 19.6% 3.6% 2.4% 2.3% 1.6% 0.6% 0.1% -0.3% -0.3% -1.6% -4.3% -6.6% -16.1% -22.0% — -82.5% -82.48%
Op. Income 5Y — — — — — — — — — — 48.0% 26.6% 10.2% 0.6% -1.5% -3.4% -9.8% -14.5% — -64.6% -64.59%
FCF 3Y — — — — 54.2% 22.4% 18.4% 30.6% 29.1% 41.6% 46.4% 37.8% 44.3% 15.7% -10.4% -17.1% -39.8% -42.2% — -65.0% -64.99%
FCF 5Y — — — — — — — — — — — — 48.0% 13.1% -6.8% -11.8% -26.5% -27.1% — -33.7% -33.73%
OCF 3Y — — 1.3% 60.3% 26.4% 10.1% 6.2% 4.2% 3.6% 1.9% 1.6% 1.9% 2.4% 0.5% -1.5% -4.3% -12.0% -14.9% — — —
OCF 5Y — — — — — — — — — — 66.3% 32.1% 13.8% 3.7% 1.5% -0.5% -5.5% -8.4% — — —
Assets 3Y — — -2.1% -3.0% -3.3% -3.0% -3.1% -4.0% -4.2% -4.0% -4.7% -4.0% -3.7% -0.8% -1.2% 2.1% 2.2% -0.3% -4.5% 0.2% 0.24%
Assets 5Y — — — — — — — — — — -2.5% -2.8% -2.6% -1.6% -2.1% -0.5% -0.9% -2.3% -4.7% -1.9% -1.93%
Equity 3Y — — 2.2% 1.5% 0.5% 0.2% -0.4% -2.2% -3.1% -2.0% -3.7% -3.1% -2.8% -4.2% -4.3% -5.9% -7.3% -7.5% -4.4% -3.3% -3.33%
Book Value 3Y — — 3.5% 3.1% 2.3% 2.1% 1.7% -0.2% -0.7% 0.5% -1.0% -0.5% -0.6% -2.0% -1.8% -2.9% -4.5% -4.9% -1.9% -0.9% -0.86%
Dividend 3Y — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — —
Growth Quality
Metric Trend Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16 Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Current
Revenue Stability 0.80 0.75 0.64 0.65 0.66 0.65 0.56 0.64 0.82 0.81 0.66 0.64 0.60 0.16 0.04 0.03 0.36 0.52 0.60 0.65 0.648
Earnings Stability 0.96 0.29 0.61 0.65 0.28 0.01 0.51 0.43 0.27 0.09 0.61 0.61 0.46 0.01 0.09 0.01 0.20 0.31 0.02 0.04 0.042
Margin Stability 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.95 0.97 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.98 0.99 0.97 0.96 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.94 0.92 0.63 0.63 0.626
Rev. Growth Consistency 1.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 1.00 0.50 0.50 1.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000
Earn. Growth Consistency 1.00 0.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.50 0.00 0.50 0.50 1.00 0.50 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.50 0.50 0.500
FCF Positive Streak 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1
Earnings Persistence 0.50 0.50 0.85 0.88 0.84 0.85 0.95 0.97 0.90 0.85 0.83 0.50 0.88 0.90 0.85 0.50 0.20 0.20 0.85 0.50 0.500
Earnings Smoothness 0.48 0.32 0.53 0.65 0.50 0.53 0.88 0.93 0.78 0.69 0.65 0.48 0.75 0.73 0.53 0.21 — — 0.68 0.43 0.433
ROE Trend 0.06 0.05 -0.00 0.00 -0.02 -0.01 -0.01 -0.02 0.00 0.01 0.05 0.06 0.04 -0.01 -0.02 -0.04 -0.14 -0.15 0.02 0.02 0.022
Gross Margin Trend 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03 -0.04 -0.06 -0.08 -0.36 -0.36 -0.361
FCF Margin Trend -0.01 -0.02 -0.02 0.01 0.03 0.04 0.09 0.26 0.25 0.37 0.35 0.08 0.08 -0.16 -0.29 -0.29 -0.35 -0.33 -0.33 -0.22 -0.221
Sustainable Growth Rate 12.6% 13.2% 8.4% 9.1% 7.8% 8.3% 10.0% 9.1% 10.5% 12.0% 14.4% 15.4% 13.4% 9.3% 9.4% 7.2% — — 14.0% 13.9% 13.91%
Internal Growth Rate 2.6% 2.8% 1.6% 1.8% 1.6% 1.8% 1.9% 1.8% 2.1% 2.6% 2.9% 3.1% 2.8% 1.9% 1.8% 1.3% — — 2.6% 2.3% 2.28%
Cash Flow Quality
Metric Trend Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16 Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Current
OCF/Net Income 3.56 3.33 5.98 5.85 6.70 6.08 5.63 6.43 5.39 4.49 3.99 3.61 3.92 5.23 5.74 7.46 -22.56 -9.15 0.00 -0.01 -0.010
FCF/OCF 0.39 0.42 0.46 0.51 0.54 0.58 0.74 1.19 1.17 1.51 1.56 1.10 1.10 0.65 0.35 0.33 0.17 0.18 — -24.71 -24.711
FCF/Net Income snapshot only 0.248
OCF/EBITDA snapshot only -0.002
CapEx/Revenue 18.8% 18.1% 17.7% 17.0% 16.3% 15.0% 9.1% 6.7% 5.8% 18.2% 19.8% 3.4% 3.3% 11.7% 21.4% 21.6% 22.8% 21.4% 0.0% 2.3% 2.33%
CapEx/Depreciation snapshot only 0.118
Accruals Ratio -0.06 -0.06 -0.08 -0.09 -0.09 -0.09 -0.09 -0.09 -0.09 -0.09 -0.08 -0.08 -0.08 -0.08 -0.08 -0.08 -0.08 -0.08 0.03 0.02 0.022
Sloan Accruals snapshot only -0.133
Cash Flow Adequacy snapshot only -0.039
Earnings Quality Score snapshot only 0.250
Dividends & Buybacks
Metric Trend Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16 Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Current
Dividend Yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.05%
Dividend/Share $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.01
Payout Ratio 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% — — 0.0% 0.0% 0.00%
FCF Payout Ratio 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% — 0.0% 0.00%
Total Payout Ratio 54.2% 57.9% 2.0% 1.8% 2.2% 1.9% 96.9% 1.3% 91.0% 81.7% 75.7% 41.9% 16.1% 81.5% 1.9% 3.1% — — 0.0% 33.2% 33.21%
Div. Increase Streak — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — —
Chowder Number — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — —
Buyback Yield 2.0% 2.4% 4.4% 4.3% 3.9% 3.7% 2.1% 2.3% 1.9% 2.2% 2.9% 1.5% 0.5% 2.3% 4.8% 12.4% 8.5% 5.2% 0.0% 0.9% 0.88%
Net Buyback Yield 2.0% 2.4% 4.4% 4.3% 3.9% 3.7% 2.1% 2.3% 1.9% 2.2% 2.9% 1.5% 0.5% 2.3% 4.8% 12.4% 8.5% 5.2% -26.9% -19.2% -19.24%
Total Shareholder Return 2.0% 2.4% 4.4% 4.3% 3.9% 3.7% 2.1% 2.3% 1.9% 2.2% 2.9% 1.5% 0.5% 2.3% 4.8% 12.4% 8.5% 5.2% -26.9% -19.2% -19.24%
DuPont Factors
Metric Trend Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16 Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Current
Tax Burden (NI/EBT) 0.34 0.38 0.35 0.38 0.34 0.35 0.34 0.28 0.32 0.38 0.44 0.48 0.45 0.36 0.56 0.55 -2.41 0.74 1.67 1.44 1.439
Interest Burden (EBT/EBIT) 0.68 0.66 0.55 0.57 0.57 0.62 0.66 0.69 0.70 0.71 0.69 0.68 0.68 0.65 0.40 0.33 0.03 -0.24 0.30 0.33 0.332
EBIT Margin 0.38 0.38 0.29 0.28 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.28 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.27 0.26 0.24 0.19 0.16 0.19 0.19 0.189
Asset Turnover 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.31 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.31 0.30 0.31 0.29 0.27 0.26 0.27 0.25 0.246
Equity Multiplier 5.05 4.83 5.20 5.13 4.92 4.69 5.24 5.23 5.02 4.79 5.11 5.10 4.89 4.93 5.37 5.71 5.59 5.51 5.50 6.25 6.250
Per Share
Metric Trend Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16 Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Current
EPS (Diluted TTM) $0.55 $0.60 $0.36 $0.39 $0.35 $0.38 $0.41 $0.37 $0.44 $0.54 $0.60 $0.64 $0.57 $0.41 $0.38 $0.29 $-0.08 $-0.17 $0.54 $0.52 $0.52
Book Value/Share $4.49 $4.63 $4.04 $4.06 $4.21 $4.42 $4.06 $3.94 $4.14 $4.46 $4.17 $4.22 $4.40 $4.36 $3.82 $3.71 $3.66 $3.80 $3.83 $3.84 $3.37
Tangible Book/Share $4.08 $4.22 $3.62 $3.66 $3.81 $4.02 $3.66 $3.54 $3.74 $4.08 $3.78 $3.82 $4.00 $3.94 $3.39 $3.27 $3.22 $3.36 $3.39 $3.39 $3.39
Revenue/Share $6.33 $6.33 $6.45 $6.52 $6.60 $6.60 $6.67 $6.70 $6.77 $6.80 $6.77 $6.65 $6.58 $6.54 $6.69 $6.77 $6.27 $5.99 $5.85 $5.80 $5.85
FCF/Share $0.77 $0.85 $0.98 $1.17 $1.24 $1.35 $1.70 $2.81 $2.77 $3.65 $3.73 $2.52 $2.47 $1.40 $0.76 $0.73 $0.30 $0.28 $0.00 $0.13 $-0.71
OCF/Share $1.96 $1.99 $2.12 $2.28 $2.32 $2.34 $2.31 $2.36 $2.38 $2.42 $2.39 $2.30 $2.25 $2.17 $2.20 $2.19 $1.72 $1.56 $0.00 $-0.01 $0.00
Cash/Share $0.68 $0.75 $0.43 $0.33 $0.29 $0.60 $0.59 $0.99 $0.96 $1.96 $1.53 $1.53 $1.52 $2.62 $1.91 $3.99 $3.76 $2.14 $0.07 $2.00 $0.07
EBITDA/Share $2.67 $2.78 $2.49 $2.50 $2.51 $2.50 $2.53 $2.45 $2.50 $2.54 $2.55 $2.59 $2.52 $2.40 $2.80 $2.74 $2.29 $2.09 $2.25 $2.25 $2.25
Debt/Share $13.62 $12.79 $13.13 $13.17 $13.08 $13.12 $13.18 $12.85 $13.00 $13.06 $12.72 $12.72 $12.69 $14.09 $14.48 $17.04 $17.10 $15.06 $6.89 $14.81 $14.81
Net Debt/Share $12.94 $12.04 $12.70 $12.84 $12.79 $12.51 $12.59 $11.86 $12.04 $11.10 $11.20 $11.19 $11.18 $11.48 $12.57 $13.06 $13.34 $12.92 $6.81 $12.80 $12.80
Academic Models
Metric Trend Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16 Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Current
Altman Z-Score — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — 1.180
Altman Z-Prime snapshot only 1.814
Piotroski F-Score 8 8 6 6 7 5 7 8 9 8 8 7 7 5 5 5 4 3 4 3 3
Beneish M-Score -3.16 -2.85 -2.74 -2.87 -2.89 -2.86 -2.83 -2.83 -2.95 -2.97 -2.92 -2.85 -2.83 -2.90 -3.10 -3.02 -3.15 -3.08 -3.30 -2.27 -2.266
Ohlson O-Score snapshot only -6.200
ROIC (Greenblatt) snapshot only 5.50%
Net-Net WC snapshot only $-14.01
EVA snapshot only $-294643546.05
Credit
Metric Trend Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16 Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Current
Credit Rating snapshot only B+
Credit Score 41.08 31.67 28.39 28.25 29.67 29.93 32.09 42.24 41.50 46.42 44.42 44.33 42.37 43.39 34.93 38.86 37.62 28.72 28.70 33.08 33.085
Credit Grade snapshot only 14
Credit Trend snapshot only -5.774
Implied Spread (bps) snapshot only 650.000
Industry Credit Rank snapshot only 47
Sector Credit Rank snapshot only 18

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For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Data sourced from SEC filings. Privacy Terms