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Not Investment Advice

STJ NYSE

St. Jude Medical, Inc.
1W: +0.8% 1M: +2.3% 3M: +1.2% 1Y: +33.0% 3Y: +32.1% 5Y: +135.6%
$80.82
Last traded 2017-01-04 — delisted
NYSE · Healthcare · Medical - Equipment & Services

Edge Score

Quantitative competitive moat analysis scoring five pillars of durable advantage — cost leadership, brand intangibles, switching costs, network effects, and efficient scale — using industry percentile rankings on a 0–100 scale.

NARROW EDGE
61.5 / 100
NoneWeakNarrowWide
Primary source: Efficient Scale  ·  ROIC: 8.6%  ·  5Y Avg: 10.9%
Cost Advantage
60
Intangibles
78
Switching Cost
30
Network Effect
60
Scale ★
90
The Edge Score quantifies a company's competitive moat using five pillars: Cost Advantage (20%, operating margin and SG&A efficiency vs industry peers), Intangible Assets (25%, gross margin premium, R&D intensity, brand pricing power), Switching Costs (25%, revenue stability, earnings consistency, customer retention proxied by operating leverage), Network Effects (15%, revenue growth with expanding margins, market share dominance), and Efficient Scale (15%, market concentration, ROIC sustainability). Each pillar is scored 0–100 using industry percentile rankings, then weighted into a composite. Wide ≥ 70, Narrow ≥ 55, Weak ≥ 40, None < 40. STJ has a Narrow competitive edge (61.5/100) — meaningful but not impregnable advantages over competitors. The primary source of advantage is Efficient Scale. ROIC of 8.6% suggests modest returns relative to capital deployed.

InsiderStreet Scorecard

Proprietary multi-factor scorecard rating companies across seven fundamental dimensions — profitability, balance sheet strength, earnings quality, growth, value, momentum, and safety — each scored 0–100.

★ ★ ★ ★ ★ 51 Grade B
Profitability
61
Balance Sheet
42
Earnings Quality
71
Growth
28
Value
34
Momentum
60
Safety
80
Cash Flow
52
The InsiderStreet Scorecard rates companies across eight dimensions: Profitability (margins, ROA, ROE), Balance Sheet (leverage, liquidity, coverage), Earnings Quality (accruals, cash conversion), Growth (revenue and earnings trajectory), Value (P/E, P/B, earnings yield, Graham criteria), Momentum (revenue and earnings acceleration), Safety (Altman Z-Score risk adjustment), and Cash Flow (operating cash flow quality, FCF conversion, cash coverage). The overall score blends 35% quality, 35% value, and 30% momentum, with a penalty for distress-zone Altman scores. STJ scores highest in Safety (80/100) and lowest in Growth (28/100). A grade of B indicates above-average fundamentals with room for improvement in select areas.

Risk & Quality Signals

Academic financial models used by institutional investors to assess bankruptcy risk, earnings manipulation, financial strength, and credit quality.

Altman Z-Score
3.05
Safe Zone
Piotroski F-Score
5/9
✓ ✓ ✗ ✓ ✗ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓
Beneish M-Score
-2.31
Unlikely Manipulator
Ohlson O-Score
-7.29
Bankruptcy prob: 0.1%
Low Risk
Credit Rating
BBB+
Score: 61.5/100
Trend: Deteriorating
Earnings Quality
100/100
OCF/NI: 1.66x
Accruals: -3.7%
The Altman Z-Score (1968) combines five ratios — working capital, retained earnings, EBIT, market value of equity, and sales, all relative to total assets or liabilities — into a single bankruptcy predictor. STJ scores 3.05, placing it in the Safe Zone (safe > 2.99, distress < 1.81). Bankruptcy is statistically unlikely within the next two years. The Piotroski F-Score (2000) is a 9-point binary checklist — four profitability tests (positive ROA, positive cash flow, improving ROA, cash flow exceeding net income), three leverage tests (declining debt ratio, improving current ratio, no share dilution), and two efficiency tests (improving gross margin, improving asset turnover). Each pass scores 1 point. STJ scores 5/9, indicating moderate financial health — some areas of strength offset by weaknesses in others. The Beneish M-Score (1999) is an 8-variable model that detects earnings manipulation by comparing year-over-year changes in receivables, gross margins, asset quality, sales growth, depreciation, SG&A, leverage, and accruals. Scores above −1.78 statistically resemble past manipulators. STJ's score of -2.31 falls below this threshold, suggesting earnings are unlikely to be manipulated. The Ohlson O-Score (1980) is a 9-variable logistic regression that estimates bankruptcy probability using firm size, leverage, working capital, current ratio, profitability (ROA), cash flow coverage, negative equity flag, consecutive losses flag, and earnings trajectory. The raw score is converted to a probability via logistic transformation. STJ's implied 0.1% bankruptcy probability is well within safe territory. Our Credit Rating model scores companies on five weighted components — solvency (30%), earning power (25%), leverage (20%), liquidity (15%), and cash flow quality (10%) — then blends the absolute score with sector and industry peer rankings. For companies with large buyback programs, equity is adjusted by adding back cumulative 5-year repurchases (capped at 80% of FCF generated) to avoid penalizing shareholder-friendly capital allocation. STJ receives an estimated rating of BBB+ (score: 61.5/100), with a deteriorating trend. The Earnings Quality score measures how well reported earnings are backed by real cash. It evaluates the operating cash flow to net income ratio (OCF/NI ≥ 1.0 means every dollar of earnings is cash-backed) and the accruals ratio (the gap between earnings and cash flow relative to assets — lower is better). STJ's score of 100/100 is high — cash flows strongly support reported earnings.

Valuation

Key valuation multiples comparing the stock's market price to its earnings, revenue, book value, and cash flows. Lower multiples may indicate relative undervaluation versus peers.

P/E
25.90x
PEG
-0.74x
P/S
0.00x
P/B
5.64x
P/FCF
27.33x
P/OCF
21.05x
EV/EBITDA
21.52x
EV/Revenue
4.76x
EV/EBIT
32.41x
EV/FCF
33.72x
Earnings Yield
2.86%
FCF Yield
3.66%
Shareholder Yield
0.00%
Graham Number
$28.28
Equity-based multiples (P/E, P/B, P/FCF) compare the stock price to per-share fundamentals and are affected by capital structure. Enterprise value multiples (EV/EBITDA, EV/Revenue, EV/FCF) strip out debt and cash, making them more useful for cross-company comparisons regardless of how companies are financed. The Graham Number — √(22.5 × EPS × Book Value) — is Benjamin Graham's formula for the maximum price a defensive investor should pay. At 25.9x earnings, STJ commands a growth premium. Graham's intrinsic value formula yields $28.28 per share, 186% below the current price.

DuPont Decomposition (5-Factor)

The 5-factor DuPont framework breaks Return on Equity into its component drivers — tax efficiency, interest burden, operating profitability, asset utilization, and financial leverage — to reveal what truly drives shareholder returns.

Tax Burden
0.919
NI / EBT
×
Interest Burden
0.818
EBT / EBIT
×
EBIT Margin
0.147
EBIT / Rev
×
Asset Turnover
0.503
Rev / Assets
×
Equity Multiplier
2.790
Assets / Equity
=
ROE
15.5%
The 5-factor DuPont identity decomposes ROE as: Tax Burden × Interest Burden × EBIT Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier = ROE. This reveals whether returns are driven by operating performance, financial leverage, or tax efficiency — three very different sources of profitability. STJ's ROE of 15.5% is driven by Asset Turnover (0.503), indicating efficient use of assets to generate revenue. A tax burden ratio of 0.92 indicates minimal tax leakage — the company retains over 90% of pre-tax earnings.

Graham-Dodd Adjusted Valuation

Our adaptation of Graham's growth formula (Fair P/E = 8.5 + 2g) from The Intelligent Investor. The classic version relies on analyst growth projections, which can be unreliable. This adjusted model substitutes the company's realized 3-year EPS CAGR — a backward-looking, verifiable measure of actual earnings power — grounding the valuation in demonstrated performance rather than forecasts.

Two adjustments we make, and why. Growth is capped at 15%. Graham defined g as expected growth over the next seven to ten years, not last year's rate. Across US companies since 1994 the median realized 7-year EPS growth is 5–8% regardless of how fast a company grew beforehand, and of 4,457 company-quarters that grew faster than 200%, none sustained it. Uncapped, the formula assigned fair multiples in the hundreds to companies that had never held that rate — and scored worse than simply reading the P/E. Capped, it carries real information. The verdict has three states, not two. Tested over 377,249 stock-months, this ratio only separates outcomes at its extremes: below 0.25 beat the universe by 1.3 points a year, above 3.0 lagged by 2.7, and everything in between sat inside a one-point band. Rather than call two-thirds of the market "undervalued" on a threshold of 1.0, we say Neutral where the model cannot tell — which is most of the time.

Adj. Growth Rate
0.00%
Fair P/E
8.50x
Intrinsic Value
$19.41
Price/Value
4.11x
Margin of Safety
-310.99%
Premium
310.99%
Assessment
Overvalued
Graham's classic formula uses analyst-projected growth to estimate a fair P/E (8.5 + 2g). Our adjusted version replaces that projection with STJ's realized 0.0% 3-year EPS CAGR, capped at 15% — demonstrated performance rather than forecasts, held to a rate companies have historically sustained. STJ trades at a 311% premium to its adjusted intrinsic value of $19.41, suggesting the market is pricing in future growth beyond what historical earnings support. The adjusted fair P/E of 8.5x compares to the current market P/E of 25.9x.

Profitability Trends

Historical profitability ratios tracking how efficiently the company converts revenue into returns for shareholders over time.

Leverage & Solvency Trends

Debt and liquidity metrics showing the company's financial leverage and ability to meet short-term and long-term obligations.

Efficiency & Working Capital Trends

Operating efficiency metrics measuring how quickly the company converts inventory to sales, collects receivables, and manages its cash conversion cycle.

Growth Trends (YoY %)

Year-over-year growth rates for key financial metrics, showing the trajectory of revenue, earnings, and cash flow generation.

Earnings Stability

R-squared of linear regression measuring how predictably revenue, earnings, and margins follow a trend over the trailing 5 years. 1.0 = perfectly predictable; lower values indicate erratic or cyclical behavior.

Monte Carlo Price Simulation

Geometric Brownian Motion with 1,000 antithetic paths over 1 year, seeded from 1800 days of historical volatility. Percentile bands show the range of statistically plausible outcomes — this is a statistical model, not a forecast.

Current Price
$80.82
Median 1Y
$87.82
5th Pctile
$55.61
95th Pctile
$138.55
Ann. Volatility
25.8%
25th–75th percentile 5th–95th percentile Median path Historical
All Ratios & Metrics

Complete fundamental data with up to 20 periods of history, sparkline trends, and current values across 13 categories and 130+ financial metrics.

Profitability
Metric Trend Q4'11 Q1'12 Q2'12 Q3'12 Q4'12 Q1'13 Q2'13 Q3'13 Q4'13 Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Current
ROE 1.2% 18.0% 17.2% 16.5% 17.6% 18.7% 15.2% 16.0% 17.4% 19.2% 23.1% 21.1% 23.8% 25.7% 26.5% 25.0% 21.4% 18.0% 16.3% 15.5% 15.51%
ROA 10.4% 8.9% 8.8% 8.4% 8.2% 8.3% 6.7% 7.6% 7.4% 7.7% 9.0% 8.7% 9.8% 10.3% 10.3% 9.5% 7.6% 6.5% 5.9% 5.6% 5.56%
ROIC 14.9% 14.3% 14.6% 13.9% 14.3% 14.5% 13.4% 14.1% 14.2% 15.0% 14.6% 14.1% 16.5% 15.8% 16.4% 16.8% 9.9% 8.9% 8.4% 8.6% 8.61%
ROCE 13.7% 13.2% 13.3% 13.5% 14.4% 14.0% 9.6% 9.7% 8.7% 8.5% 11.2% 9.6% 15.3% 18.2% 14.6% 13.3% 6.8% 5.2% 8.0% 7.9% 7.89%
Gross Margin 71.4% 72.7% 72.8% 73.2% 69.5% 71.8% 72.8% 71.2% 69.8% 71.9% 70.1% 70.0% 70.5% 70.6% 69.9% 68.3% 65.4% 66.4% 68.2% 67.0% 66.98%
Operating Margin 11.2% 21.6% 24.0% 17.7% 16.4% 23.0% 20.1% 23.4% 10.4% 22.9% 20.0% 19.7% 19.5% 24.2% 22.3% 22.0% 6.7% 15.7% 20.0% 19.1% 19.08%
Net Margin 8.9% 15.2% 17.3% 13.3% 8.7% 16.7% 8.2% 19.6% 8.6% 18.3% 18.6% 17.3% 17.0% 19.5% 20.6% 16.1% 7.8% 6.6% 15.2% 14.1% 14.14%
EBITDA Margin 15.7% 26.4% 28.9% 23.2% 21.1% 26.2% 13.8% 30.3% 16.9% 29.2% 26.7% 26.1% 25.5% 30.7% 28.4% 26.9% 16.2% 19.3% 26.6% 26.0% 26.02%
FCF Margin 17.5% 17.3% 18.2% 18.5% 19.2% 18.5% 16.1% 14.7% 13.4% 15.3% 16.7% 17.9% 19.8% 19.4% 18.0% 19.5% 15.4% 13.1% 14.5% 14.1% 14.12%
OCF Margin 22.9% 22.8% 23.1% 23.2% 24.3% 23.6% 21.0% 19.6% 17.5% 19.0% 20.3% 21.3% 23.2% 22.6% 21.2% 22.6% 18.8% 16.9% 18.3% 18.3% 18.33%
ROE 3Y Avg snapshot only 20.49%
ROE 5Y Avg snapshot only 18.86%
ROA 3Y Avg snapshot only 7.65%
ROIC 3Y Avg snapshot only 10.48%
ROIC Economic snapshot only 8.37%
Cash ROA snapshot only 8.71%
Cash ROIC snapshot only 11.08%
CROIC snapshot only 8.53%
NOPAT Margin snapshot only 14.26%
Pretax Margin snapshot only 12.02%
R&D / Revenue snapshot only 12.42%
SGA / Revenue snapshot only 37.71%
SBC / Revenue snapshot only 0.00%
Valuation
Metric Trend Q4'11 Q1'12 Q2'12 Q3'12 Q4'12 Q1'13 Q2'13 Q3'13 Q4'13 Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Current
P/E Ratio 13.59 17.50 15.64 17.61 14.85 15.23 20.66 21.01 25.02 25.02 22.24 20.27 18.78 18.48 20.20 18.05 20.10 22.17 34.01 34.93 25.904
P/S Ratio 2.00 2.50 2.26 2.41 2.03 2.13 2.41 2.77 3.29 3.39 3.61 3.18 3.35 3.35 3.76 3.30 3.19 2.80 3.88 3.86 0.000
P/B Ratio 2.51 3.19 2.79 2.81 2.73 3.11 3.41 3.55 4.28 4.61 5.05 4.36 4.48 4.88 5.44 4.57 4.38 3.86 5.25 5.12 5.643
P/FCF 11.44 14.42 12.38 12.99 10.58 11.53 15.01 18.81 24.48 22.10 21.55 17.77 16.89 17.24 20.87 16.96 20.73 21.33 26.73 27.33 27.333
P/OCF 8.72 10.97 9.77 10.38 8.36 9.06 11.47 14.18 18.82 17.83 17.81 14.94 14.43 14.83 17.70 14.59 17.02 16.55 21.19 21.05 21.050
EV/EBITDA 9.08 11.45 10.27 11.17 9.35 10.17 13.53 13.96 17.01 17.10 15.85 14.73 14.04 14.12 15.42 13.50 16.63 16.91 21.86 21.52 21.516
EV/Revenue 2.28 2.80 2.53 2.63 2.33 2.53 2.84 3.18 3.68 3.83 4.07 3.64 3.77 3.84 4.26 3.76 4.22 3.81 4.86 4.76 4.761
EV/EBIT 11.75 14.71 13.01 14.36 11.90 13.01 19.89 20.02 26.21 27.71 23.57 25.83 18.39 17.77 24.60 18.91 32.64 38.17 32.22 32.41 32.409
EV/FCF 13.05 16.17 13.87 14.20 12.16 13.68 17.70 21.54 27.42 24.97 24.32 20.30 19.04 19.79 23.67 19.30 27.43 29.06 33.48 33.72 33.719
Earnings Yield 7.4% 5.7% 6.4% 5.7% 6.7% 6.6% 4.8% 4.8% 4.0% 4.0% 4.5% 4.9% 5.3% 5.4% 5.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 2.9% 2.9% 2.86%
FCF Yield 8.7% 6.9% 8.1% 7.7% 9.4% 8.7% 6.7% 5.3% 4.1% 4.5% 4.6% 5.6% 5.9% 5.8% 4.8% 5.9% 4.8% 4.7% 3.7% 3.7% 3.66%
EV/OCF snapshot only 25.969
EV/Gross Profit snapshot only 7.130
Acquirers Multiple snapshot only 30.690
Shareholder Yield snapshot only 0.00%
Graham Number snapshot only $28.28
Leverage & Solvency
Metric Trend Q4'11 Q1'12 Q2'12 Q3'12 Q4'12 Q1'13 Q2'13 Q3'13 Q4'13 Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Current
Current Ratio 3.19 3.31 3.59 2.26 2.00 2.09 2.36 3.59 2.83 3.17 2.31 1.93 1.47 1.15 1.14 1.75 1.32 1.72 1.71 1.93 1.933
Quick Ratio 2.61 2.72 2.97 1.84 1.66 1.71 1.95 2.93 2.32 2.54 1.87 1.52 1.17 0.86 0.87 1.45 0.95 1.15 1.18 1.31 1.308
Debt/Equity 0.63 0.68 0.65 0.53 0.75 0.90 0.94 0.81 0.85 0.96 1.06 0.94 0.92 0.91 0.97 1.27 1.58 1.48 1.42 1.29 1.287
Net Debt/Equity 0.35 0.39 0.34 0.26 0.41 0.58 0.61 0.51 0.51 0.60 0.65 0.62 0.57 0.72 0.73 0.63 1.41 1.40 1.33 1.20 1.197
Debt/Assets 0.31 0.33 0.32 0.28 0.33 0.37 0.37 0.35 0.35 0.38 0.40 0.38 0.38 0.37 0.39 0.45 0.49 0.48 0.48 0.46 0.460
Debt/EBITDA 1.99 2.17 2.15 1.93 2.24 2.47 3.16 2.80 3.01 3.16 2.94 2.79 2.56 2.30 2.43 3.29 4.54 4.76 4.73 4.38 4.381
Net Debt/EBITDA 1.12 1.24 1.10 0.95 1.21 1.60 2.06 1.77 1.82 1.96 1.81 1.84 1.59 1.82 1.83 1.63 4.06 4.50 4.41 4.08 4.075
Interest Coverage 15.57 15.24 15.07 13.86 14.77 14.32 10.36 11.09 9.54 9.20 11.46 9.39 13.56 14.26 11.48 12.93 6.96 4.62 6.15 5.50 5.503
Equity Multiplier 2.01 2.08 2.03 1.90 2.26 2.45 2.52 2.34 2.42 2.53 2.62 2.50 2.43 2.45 2.51 2.78 3.23 3.06 2.96 2.80 2.796
Cash Ratio snapshot only 0.277
Debt Service Coverage snapshot only 8.289
Cash to Debt snapshot only 0.070
FCF to Debt snapshot only 0.146
Defensive Interval snapshot only 206.9 days
Efficiency & Turnover
Metric Trend Q4'11 Q1'12 Q2'12 Q3'12 Q4'12 Q1'13 Q2'13 Q3'13 Q4'13 Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Current
Asset Turnover 0.70 0.63 0.61 0.61 0.60 0.59 0.58 0.57 0.56 0.57 0.55 0.55 0.55 0.57 0.55 0.52 0.48 0.51 0.52 0.50 0.503
Inventory Turnover 2.38 2.34 2.33 2.33 2.49 2.50 2.43 2.34 2.39 2.28 2.26 2.21 2.22 2.10 2.05 2.02 2.06 2.11 2.22 2.26 2.260
Receivables Turnover 4.33 4.02 4.01 4.03 4.05 3.98 3.99 3.97 3.97 4.13 3.96 4.10 4.26 4.39 4.16 4.40 4.52 4.60 4.51 4.82 4.823
Payables Turnover 8.68 6.83 10.21 9.10 6.74 8.12 8.49 9.22 6.28 8.04 7.88 8.82 8.31 8.32 9.02 8.74 9.91 7.41 9.07 9.42 9.424
DSO 84 91 91 91 90 92 92 92 92 88 92 89 86 83 88 83 81 79 81 76 75.7 days
DIO 153 156 157 157 146 146 150 156 153 160 162 165 165 174 178 181 177 173 165 161 161.5 days
DPO 42 53 36 40 54 45 43 40 58 45 46 41 44 44 40 42 37 49 40 39 38.7 days
Cash Conversion Cycle 196 193 212 207 182 193 199 208 187 203 208 213 206 213 226 222 221 203 205 198 198.4 days
Fixed Asset Turnover snapshot only 4.458
Operating Cycle snapshot only 237.2 days
Cash Velocity snapshot only 14.779
Capital Intensity snapshot only 2.106
Growth (YoY)
Metric Trend Q4'11 Q1'12 Q2'12 Q3'12 Q4'12 Q1'13 Q2'13 Q3'13 Q4'13 Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Current
Revenue -12.7% -13.9% 3.4% -0.3% -1.9% -3.3% -2.8% -1.6% -0.0% 1.5% 2.4% 2.8% 2.2% 1.4% -0.1% -1.3% -1.4% 0.7% 4.1% 7.6% 7.65%
Net Income -9.0% -10.9% -9.2% -16.6% -8.9% -5.1% -21.5% -4.9% -3.9% -1.8% 42.6% 22.2% 38.6% 35.5% 14.5% 15.0% -12.2% -29.8% -36.1% -35.0% -34.98%
EPS -8.1% -7.7% -5.1% -13.1% -5.4% 4.9% -13.5% 4.2% 4.2% -2.5% 41.6% 21.9% 39.0% 36.6% 15.6% 16.2% -11.1% -29.6% -36.4% -35.4% -35.41%
FCF 1.1% -4.5% -2.0% -7.5% 7.6% 3.3% -14.4% -21.7% -30.0% -15.9% 6.9% 24.9% 50.7% 28.3% 7.4% 7.3% -23.4% -31.9% -16.1% -21.9% -21.91%
EBITDA -17.0% -19.5% -18.1% -14.4% -2.5% -1.6% -17.1% -4.9% -13.3% -8.7% 25.4% 11.6% 26.8% 23.2% 7.4% 11.3% -6.8% -16.5% -16.3% -14.4% -14.42%
Op. Income -12.8% -19.6% -8.8% -15.7% -1.3% 1.1% -5.2% 9.3% -4.5% -4.6% 1.1% -9.7% 9.5% 10.3% 12.0% 19.0% -10.5% -19.8% -21.6% -23.8% -23.83%
OCF Growth snapshot only -12.78%
Asset Growth snapshot only 12.73%
Equity Growth snapshot only 12.23%
Debt Growth snapshot only 14.11%
Shares Change snapshot only 0.66%
Growth (CAGR)
Metric Trend Q4'11 Q1'12 Q2'12 Q3'12 Q4'12 Q1'13 Q2'13 Q3'13 Q4'13 Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Current
Revenue 3Y 8.4% 7.6% 7.0% 6.0% 5.2% 3.9% -4.5% -4.9% -5.1% -5.5% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% -0.2% -0.2% -0.0% 0.2% 1.2% 2.1% 3.0% 3.00%
Revenue 5Y 43.8% 25.6% 15.3% 8.5% 7.7% 6.8% 5.7% 5.0% 4.6% 4.1% 4.0% 3.8% 3.5% 2.9% -2.3% -2.7% -2.9% -2.9% 1.4% 1.4% 1.40%
EPS 3Y -2.9% -3.3% -3.6% -5.4% -15.5% -14.7% -20.4% -17.8% -3.2% -1.9% 5.2% 3.4% 11.1% 11.8% 12.3% 13.9% 8.8% -2.1% 1.4% -2.9% -2.90%
EPS 5Y 11.4% 5.6% 1.8% -3.1% -3.4% -2.1% -6.9% -5.2% -2.0% -1.6% 1.9% 1.5% -2.7% -3.7% -3.7% -4.7% 2.3% -1.9% -3.1% -3.7% -3.68%
Net Income 3Y -5.0% -6.4% -6.8% -8.0% -18.0% -18.4% -23.9% -21.3% -7.3% -6.0% 0.6% -1.0% 6.7% 8.1% 8.6% 10.2% 5.4% -2.2% 1.4% -3.0% -2.96%
Net Income 5Y 8.5% 3.0% -0.5% -5.2% -5.5% -6.0% -10.5% -8.7% -5.6% -5.2% -2.0% -2.0% -6.0% -6.3% -6.3% -7.3% -0.6% -4.6% -5.8% -6.2% -6.22%
EBITDA 3Y -3.9% -5.0% -5.2% -6.0% — — 1.4% 50.3% -11.1% -10.2% -5.2% -3.2% 2.3% 3.4% 3.7% 5.7% 0.8% -2.1% 4.1% 2.1% 2.05%
EBITDA 5Y 13.5% 7.2% 3.1% -1.9% -1.3% -2.4% -7.0% -6.1% -5.6% -5.1% -2.4% -2.5% — — 79.1% 33.4% -3.7% -5.8% -5.2% -2.9% -2.86%
Gross Profit 3Y 46.3% 43.2% 41.8% 39.7% 42.9% 38.9% 11.6% 21.2% -3.4% -3.7% 6.7% -0.6% -0.9% -1.2% -1.2% -1.3% -1.4% -0.9% -0.2% 0.8% 0.76%
Gross Profit 5Y — — 55.7% 29.0% 31.2% 28.3% 25.1% 22.6% 24.7% 23.2% 22.6% 21.8% 23.9% 22.0% 6.8% 12.1% -2.7% -2.9% 3.7% -0.2% -0.22%
Op. Income 3Y -8.5% -9.3% -9.2% -10.2% -15.9% -15.2% -19.1% -18.3% -6.3% -8.1% -4.4% -5.9% 1.1% 2.1% 2.4% 5.5% -2.2% -5.5% -3.9% -6.4% -6.43%
Op. Income 5Y 9.1% 3.5% 0.1% -4.8% -3.9% -4.7% -7.1% -6.4% -6.3% -6.4% -6.4% -6.5% -9.1% -8.5% -9.8% -10.1% -4.2% -7.3% -5.1% -5.5% -5.47%
FCF 3Y 17.7% 23.1% 22.3% 27.9% 62.5% 48.2% 30.2% 17.6% -8.7% -6.0% -3.6% -3.3% 4.4% 3.7% -0.6% 1.6% -6.8% -9.7% -1.2% 1.5% 1.51%
FCF 5Y 42.0% 33.9% 27.5% 18.2% 12.8% 9.1% 4.8% 1.9% 4.2% 10.1% 10.8% 15.4% 35.3% 28.6% 20.4% 16.9% -2.5% -6.2% -4.2% -5.4% -5.39%
OCF 3Y 10.8% 13.2% 11.8% 14.7% 34.6% 28.4% 18.6% 10.7% -9.0% -7.3% -6.1% -5.7% 0.4% -0.5% -3.0% -0.9% -8.0% -9.4% -2.4% 0.8% 0.77%
OCF 5Y 40.0% 29.6% 21.2% 12.1% 9.1% 6.2% 2.9% 0.8% 0.3% 3.5% 4.1% 7.0% 19.0% 15.9% 11.5% 9.8% -4.0% -6.3% -4.9% -5.2% -5.17%
Assets 3Y 16.3% 15.6% 13.0% 18.4% 23.1% 20.8% 11.7% 12.9% 13.9% 5.2% 4.7% 4.0% 4.3% 0.9% 1.6% 7.2% 12.1% 11.1% 9.4% 8.0% 7.97%
Assets 5Y 19.9% 13.3% 12.7% 11.8% 11.7% 10.2% 11.4% 10.9% 12.4% 11.6% 10.4% 13.5% 15.5% 12.6% 6.8% 9.9% 13.5% 7.3% 6.8% 6.6% 6.62%
Equity 3Y 11.4% 8.8% 6.2% 9.8% 7.2% — — — — -3.6% -6.3% -2.6% -2.1% -4.5% -5.3% -5.6% -0.4% 3.1% 3.7% 1.7% 1.73%
Book Value 3Y 13.9% 12.3% 9.9% 12.9% 10.5% — — — — 0.6% -2.0% 1.7% 1.9% -1.3% -2.1% -2.4% 2.8% 3.2% 3.7% 1.8% 1.79%
Dividend 3Y — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — —
Growth Quality
Metric Trend Q4'11 Q1'12 Q2'12 Q3'12 Q4'12 Q1'13 Q2'13 Q3'13 Q4'13 Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Current
Revenue Stability 0.84 0.84 0.70 0.61 0.56 0.48 0.30 0.23 0.18 0.12 0.72 0.67 0.65 0.63 0.62 0.61 0.59 0.50 0.79 0.40 0.396
Earnings Stability 0.09 0.02 0.01 0.08 0.28 0.31 0.45 0.40 0.50 0.47 0.34 0.32 0.30 0.28 0.18 0.23 0.04 0.02 0.00 0.02 0.017
Margin Stability 0.00 0.07 0.50 0.54 0.56 0.58 0.68 0.63 0.70 0.71 0.71 0.72 0.70 0.71 0.82 0.74 0.97 0.97 0.93 0.97 0.970
Rev. Growth Consistency 0.00 0.00 0.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.50 0.50 0.500
Earn. Growth Consistency 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 1.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000
FCF Positive Streak 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Earnings Persistence 0.96 0.96 0.96 0.93 0.96 0.98 0.91 0.98 0.98 0.99 0.83 0.91 0.85 0.86 0.94 0.94 0.95 0.88 0.86 0.86 0.860
Earnings Smoothness 0.91 0.89 0.90 0.82 0.91 0.95 0.76 0.95 0.96 0.98 0.65 0.80 0.68 0.70 0.86 0.86 0.87 0.65 0.56 0.58 0.576
ROE Trend — — — — — 0.01 -0.02 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 0.06 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.07 0.06 0.01 -0.05 -0.09 -0.09 -0.087
Gross Margin Trend 0.24 0.24 0.20 0.19 0.02 0.02 0.06 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.02 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.02 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03 -0.034
FCF Margin Trend 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.03 0.02 -0.03 -0.05 -0.05 -0.03 -0.00 0.01 0.04 0.02 0.02 0.03 -0.01 -0.04 -0.03 -0.05 -0.046
Sustainable Growth Rate 1.2% 18.0% 17.2% 16.5% 17.6% 18.7% 15.2% 16.0% 17.4% 19.2% 23.1% 21.1% 23.8% 25.7% 26.5% 25.0% 21.4% 18.0% 16.3% 15.5% 15.51%
Internal Growth Rate 11.6% 9.8% 9.7% 9.1% 9.0% 9.1% 7.2% 8.2% 8.0% 8.3% 9.9% 9.5% 10.9% 11.5% 11.5% 10.5% 8.2% 6.9% 6.3% 5.9% 5.89%
Cash Flow Quality
Metric Trend Q4'11 Q1'12 Q2'12 Q3'12 Q4'12 Q1'13 Q2'13 Q3'13 Q4'13 Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Current
OCF/Net Income 1.56 1.60 1.60 1.70 1.78 1.68 1.80 1.48 1.33 1.40 1.25 1.36 1.30 1.25 1.14 1.24 1.18 1.34 1.61 1.66 1.660
FCF/OCF 0.76 0.76 0.79 0.80 0.79 0.79 0.76 0.75 0.77 0.81 0.83 0.84 0.85 0.86 0.85 0.86 0.82 0.78 0.79 0.77 0.770
FCF/Net Income snapshot only 1.278
OCF/EBITDA snapshot only 0.829
CapEx/Revenue 5.5% 5.5% 4.9% 4.7% 5.1% 5.0% 4.9% 4.8% 4.0% 3.7% 3.5% 3.4% 3.4% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.4% 3.8% 3.8% 4.2% 4.21%
CapEx/Depreciation snapshot only 0.567
Accruals Ratio -0.06 -0.05 -0.05 -0.06 -0.06 -0.06 -0.05 -0.04 -0.02 -0.03 -0.02 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03 -0.01 -0.02 -0.01 -0.02 -0.04 -0.04 -0.037
Sloan Accruals snapshot only -0.103
Cash Flow Adequacy snapshot only 4.351
Earnings Quality Score snapshot only 1.000
Dividends & Buybacks
Metric Trend Q4'11 Q1'12 Q2'12 Q3'12 Q4'12 Q1'13 Q2'13 Q3'13 Q4'13 Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Current
Dividend Yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.00%
Dividend/Share $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Payout Ratio 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.00%
FCF Payout Ratio 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.00%
Total Payout Ratio 98.0% 99.5% 99.1% 39.6% 1.3% 1.7% 2.1% 1.8% 1.2% 93.5% 77.4% 79.5% 47.5% 49.3% 48.3% 49.4% 56.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.00%
Div. Increase Streak — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — —
Chowder Number — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — —
Buyback Yield 7.2% 5.7% 6.3% 2.3% 8.9% 11.2% 9.9% 8.6% 4.6% 3.7% 3.5% 3.9% 2.5% 2.7% 2.4% 2.7% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.00%
Net Buyback Yield 7.2% 5.7% 6.3% 2.3% 8.9% 11.2% 9.9% 8.6% 4.6% 3.7% 3.5% 3.9% 2.5% 2.7% 2.4% 2.7% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.00%
Total Shareholder Return 7.2% 5.7% 6.3% 2.3% 8.9% 11.2% 9.9% 8.6% 4.6% 3.7% 3.5% 3.9% 2.5% 2.7% 2.4% 2.7% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.00%
DuPont Factors
Metric Trend Q4'11 Q1'12 Q2'12 Q3'12 Q4'12 Q1'13 Q2'13 Q3'13 Q4'13 Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Current
Tax Burden (NI/EBT) 0.81 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.75 0.77 0.90 0.91 1.04 1.10 1.03 1.25 0.94 0.90 0.87 0.76 0.95 0.94 0.90 0.92 0.919
Interest Burden (EBT/EBIT) 0.94 0.93 0.93 0.93 0.93 0.93 0.90 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.91 0.89 0.93 0.93 1.24 1.21 1.29 1.34 0.84 0.82 0.818
EBIT Margin 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.18 0.20 0.19 0.14 0.16 0.14 0.14 0.17 0.14 0.21 0.22 0.17 0.20 0.13 0.10 0.15 0.15 0.147
Asset Turnover 0.70 0.63 0.61 0.61 0.60 0.59 0.58 0.57 0.56 0.57 0.55 0.55 0.55 0.57 0.55 0.52 0.48 0.51 0.52 0.50 0.503
Equity Multiplier 11.70 2.01 1.95 1.97 2.13 2.25 2.25 2.11 2.34 2.49 2.57 2.42 2.43 2.49 2.57 2.64 2.82 2.77 2.74 2.79 2.790
Per Share
Metric Trend Q4'11 Q1'12 Q2'12 Q3'12 Q4'12 Q1'13 Q2'13 Q3'13 Q4'13 Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Current
EPS (Diluted TTM) $2.52 $2.53 $2.55 $2.39 $2.39 $2.65 $2.21 $2.49 $2.49 $2.59 $3.13 $3.04 $3.46 $3.54 $3.62 $3.53 $3.07 $2.49 $2.30 $2.28 $2.28
Book Value/Share $13.68 $13.90 $14.31 $15.00 $13.01 $13.02 $13.36 $14.76 $14.56 $14.05 $13.76 $14.15 $14.49 $13.39 $13.42 $13.96 $14.12 $14.31 $14.90 $15.57 $14.32
Tangible Book/Share $2.04 $1.92 $2.41 $3.16 $1.05 $-0.50 $-0.62 $-0.07 $-0.70 $-1.24 $-1.29 $-1.34 $-0.64 $-1.71 $-1.68 $-1.05 $-13.40 $-13.15 $-12.30 $-11.45 $-11.45
Revenue/Share $17.16 $17.72 $17.68 $17.50 $17.48 $18.95 $18.94 $18.88 $18.93 $19.10 $19.27 $19.37 $19.41 $19.52 $19.44 $19.33 $19.35 $19.71 $20.17 $20.67 $19.64
FCF/Share $3.00 $3.07 $3.22 $3.24 $3.35 $3.51 $3.04 $2.78 $2.54 $2.93 $3.23 $3.47 $3.85 $3.79 $3.50 $3.76 $2.98 $2.59 $2.93 $2.92 $3.02
OCF/Share $3.93 $4.04 $4.08 $4.06 $4.24 $4.46 $3.98 $3.70 $3.31 $3.63 $3.91 $4.13 $4.50 $4.41 $4.13 $4.37 $3.63 $3.33 $3.69 $3.79 $3.68
Cash/Share $3.72 $4.04 $4.56 $4.05 $4.49 $4.12 $4.38 $4.43 $4.85 $5.12 $5.59 $4.57 $5.08 $2.53 $3.26 $8.89 $2.36 $1.17 $1.42 $1.40 $2.40
EBITDA/Share $4.31 $4.34 $4.35 $4.12 $4.36 $4.72 $3.98 $4.30 $4.10 $4.28 $4.95 $4.78 $5.21 $5.31 $5.37 $5.38 $4.91 $4.44 $4.48 $4.57 $4.57
Debt/Share $8.55 $9.40 $9.36 $7.97 $9.78 $11.67 $12.58 $12.02 $12.32 $13.52 $14.55 $13.35 $13.34 $12.20 $13.07 $17.67 $22.33 $21.15 $21.20 $20.03 $20.03
Net Debt/Share $4.83 $5.36 $4.80 $3.92 $5.29 $7.55 $8.21 $7.59 $7.47 $8.40 $8.96 $8.78 $8.26 $9.68 $9.80 $8.78 $19.96 $19.99 $19.78 $18.64 $18.64
Academic Models
Metric Trend Q4'11 Q1'12 Q2'12 Q3'12 Q4'12 Q1'13 Q2'13 Q3'13 Q4'13 Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Current
Altman Z-Score — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — 3.049
Altman Z-Prime snapshot only 5.344
Piotroski F-Score 5 5 7 6 4 4 4 5 6 5 4 5 7 7 7 5 4 5 4 5 5
Beneish M-Score -2.26 -2.70 -2.80 -2.79 -2.74 -2.79 -2.68 -2.55 -2.50 -2.55 -2.51 -2.64 -2.75 -2.70 -2.65 -2.68 -2.32 -2.31 -2.36 -2.31 -2.310
Ohlson O-Score snapshot only -7.288
Net-Net WC snapshot only $-18.18
EVA snapshot only $-136549162.01
Credit
Metric Trend Q4'11 Q1'12 Q2'12 Q3'12 Q4'12 Q1'13 Q2'13 Q3'13 Q4'13 Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Current
Credit Rating snapshot only BBB+
Credit Score 84.69 86.95 83.09 79.52 74.84 77.54 71.94 78.89 73.69 74.66 76.88 73.18 75.92 78.44 76.03 71.49 51.74 52.66 60.46 61.46 61.464
Credit Grade snapshot only 8
Credit Trend snapshot only -10.027
Implied Spread (bps) snapshot only 225.000
Industry Credit Rank snapshot only 43
Sector Credit Rank snapshot only 52

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