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TSP NASDAQ

TuSimple Holdings Inc.
1W: -9.8% 1M: +69.4% 3M: -45.8% 1Y: -74.9%
$0.25
Last traded 2024-03-05 — delisted
NASDAQ · Industrials · Trucking · $57.5M mcap · 142M float · 2.81% daily turnover

Edge Score

Quantitative competitive moat analysis scoring five pillars of durable advantage — cost leadership, brand intangibles, switching costs, network effects, and efficient scale — using industry percentile rankings on a 0–100 scale.

NO EDGE
38.8 / 100
NoneWeakNarrowWide
Primary source: Intangible Assets  ·  ROIC: -716.6%
Cost Advantage
42
Intangibles
60
Switching Cost
17
Network Effect
39
Scale
35
The Edge Score quantifies a company's competitive moat using five pillars: Cost Advantage (20%, operating margin and SG&A efficiency vs industry peers), Intangible Assets (25%, gross margin premium, R&D intensity, brand pricing power), Switching Costs (25%, revenue stability, earnings consistency, customer retention proxied by operating leverage), Network Effects (15%, revenue growth with expanding margins, market share dominance), and Efficient Scale (15%, market concentration, ROIC sustainability). Each pillar is scored 0–100 using industry percentile rankings, then weighted into a composite. Wide ≥ 70, Narrow ≥ 55, Weak ≥ 40, None < 40. TSP has No discernible competitive edge (38.8/100). The business operates without significant structural advantages. The primary source of advantage is Intangible Assets. Negative ROIC of -716.6% indicates the company is currently destroying value, though this may reflect a growth investment phase.

Analyst Insights

Wall Street analyst consensus based on price targets and buy/sell/hold recommendations from institutional research coverage over the trailing 12 months.

Analyst Price Targets
Analyst Recommendations
Strong Buy: 0Buy: 5Hold: 7Sell: 4Strong Sell: 0
Rating Summary
ConsensusHold
Avg Target$—
Analysts0
Price Target Change History
DateFirmAnalystOldNewChangeUpside @ CallStock@Call
2022-08-15 Robert W. Baird Ben Kallo Initiated $11 — +15.9% $9.49
2022-05-04 RBC Capital — Initiated $14 — +35.4% $10.34
2021-05-10 Oppenheimer Colin Rusch Initiated $55 — +44.5% $38.07
2021-05-09 Piper Sandler Alexander Potter Initiated $50 — +34.8% $37.09

InsiderStreet Scorecard

Proprietary multi-factor scorecard rating companies across seven fundamental dimensions — profitability, balance sheet strength, earnings quality, growth, value, momentum, and safety — each scored 0–100.

★ ★ ★ ★ ★ — Grade A+
Profitability
—
Balance Sheet
3
Earnings Quality
69
Growth
48
Value
50
Momentum
50
Safety
0
Cash Flow
30

Risk & Quality Signals

Academic financial models used by institutional investors to assess bankruptcy risk, earnings manipulation, financial strength, and credit quality.

Altman Z-Score
-0.56
Distress Zone
Piotroski F-Score
3/9
✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✗ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✗
Beneish M-Score
—
—
Ohlson O-Score
-2.43
Bankruptcy prob: 8.1%
Low Risk
Credit Rating
B
Score: 29.3/100
Trend: Deteriorating
Earnings Quality
—
OCF/NI: 0.81x
Accruals: -6.6%
The Altman Z-Score (1968) combines five ratios — working capital, retained earnings, EBIT, market value of equity, and sales, all relative to total assets or liabilities — into a single bankruptcy predictor. TSP scores -0.56, placing it in the Distress Zone (safe > 2.99, distress < 1.81). Historically, companies in this range face elevated bankruptcy risk. The Piotroski F-Score (2000) is a 9-point binary checklist — four profitability tests (positive ROA, positive cash flow, improving ROA, cash flow exceeding net income), three leverage tests (declining debt ratio, improving current ratio, no share dilution), and two efficiency tests (improving gross margin, improving asset turnover). Each pass scores 1 point. TSP scores 3/9, suggesting weak financial fundamentals — the company fails the majority of these accounting tests. The Ohlson O-Score (1980) is a 9-variable logistic regression that estimates bankruptcy probability using firm size, leverage, working capital, current ratio, profitability (ROA), cash flow coverage, negative equity flag, consecutive losses flag, and earnings trajectory. The raw score is converted to a probability via logistic transformation. TSP's implied 8.1% bankruptcy probability is well within safe territory. Our Credit Rating model scores companies on five weighted components — solvency (30%), earning power (25%), leverage (20%), liquidity (15%), and cash flow quality (10%) — then blends the absolute score with sector and industry peer rankings. For companies with large buyback programs, equity is adjusted by adding back cumulative 5-year repurchases (capped at 80% of FCF generated) to avoid penalizing shareholder-friendly capital allocation. TSP receives an estimated rating of B (score: 29.3/100), with a deteriorating trend.

Valuation

Key valuation multiples comparing the stock's market price to its earnings, revenue, book value, and cash flows. Lower multiples may indicate relative undervaluation versus peers.

P/E
-0.12x
PEG
-0.00x
P/S
6.13x
P/B
0.06x
P/FCF
-1.20x
P/OCF
—
EV/EBITDA
1.07x
EV/Revenue
-170.74x
EV/EBIT
1.03x
EV/FCF
1.24x
Earnings Yield
-100.28%
FCF Yield
-83.39%
Shareholder Yield
0.32%
Graham Number
—
Equity-based multiples (P/E, P/B, P/FCF) compare the stock price to per-share fundamentals and are affected by capital structure. Enterprise value multiples (EV/EBITDA, EV/Revenue, EV/FCF) strip out debt and cash, making them more useful for cross-company comparisons regardless of how companies are financed. The Graham Number — √(22.5 × EPS × Book Value) — is Benjamin Graham's formula for the maximum price a defensive investor should pay. TSP currently has negative earnings — the P/E ratio is not meaningful.

DuPont Decomposition (5-Factor)

The 5-factor DuPont framework breaks Return on Equity into its component drivers — tax efficiency, interest burden, operating profitability, asset utilization, and financial leverage — to reveal what truly drives shareholder returns.

Tax Burden
1.000
NI / EBT
×
Interest Burden
0.997
EBT / EBIT
×
EBIT Margin
-166.356
EBIT / Rev
×
Asset Turnover
0.002
Rev / Assets
×
Equity Multiplier
1.103
Assets / Equity
=
ROE
-39.0%
The 5-factor DuPont identity decomposes ROE as: Tax Burden × Interest Burden × EBIT Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier = ROE. This reveals whether returns are driven by operating performance, financial leverage, or tax efficiency — three very different sources of profitability. TSP's ROE of -39.0% is driven by Asset Turnover (0.002), indicating efficient use of assets to generate revenue. A tax burden ratio of 1.00 indicates minimal tax leakage — the company retains over 90% of pre-tax earnings.

Graham-Dodd Adjusted Valuation

Our adaptation of Graham's growth formula (Fair P/E = 8.5 + 2g) from The Intelligent Investor. The classic version relies on analyst growth projections, which can be unreliable. This adjusted model substitutes the company's realized 3-year EPS CAGR — a backward-looking, verifiable measure of actual earnings power — grounding the valuation in demonstrated performance rather than forecasts.

Two adjustments we make, and why. Growth is capped at 15%. Graham defined g as expected growth over the next seven to ten years, not last year's rate. Across US companies since 1994 the median realized 7-year EPS growth is 5–8% regardless of how fast a company grew beforehand, and of 4,457 company-quarters that grew faster than 200%, none sustained it. Uncapped, the formula assigned fair multiples in the hundreds to companies that had never held that rate — and scored worse than simply reading the P/E. Capped, it carries real information. The verdict has three states, not two. Tested over 377,249 stock-months, this ratio only separates outcomes at its extremes: below 0.25 beat the universe by 1.3 points a year, above 3.0 lagged by 2.7, and everything in between sat inside a one-point band. Rather than call two-thirds of the market "undervalued" on a threshold of 1.0, we say Neutral where the model cannot tell — which is most of the time.

Adj. Growth Rate
0.00%
Fair P/E
8.50x
Intrinsic Value
—
Price/Value
—
Margin of Safety
—
Premium
—

Profitability Trends

Historical profitability ratios tracking how efficiently the company converts revenue into returns for shareholders over time.

Leverage & Solvency Trends

Debt and liquidity metrics showing the company's financial leverage and ability to meet short-term and long-term obligations.

Efficiency & Working Capital Trends

Operating efficiency metrics measuring how quickly the company converts inventory to sales, collects receivables, and manages its cash conversion cycle.

Growth Trends (YoY %)

Year-over-year growth rates for key financial metrics, showing the trajectory of revenue, earnings, and cash flow generation.

Earnings Stability

R-squared of linear regression measuring how predictably revenue, earnings, and margins follow a trend over the trailing 5 years. 1.0 = perfectly predictable; lower values indicate erratic or cyclical behavior.

Monte Carlo Price Simulation

Geometric Brownian Motion with 1,000 antithetic paths over 1 year, seeded from 727 days of historical volatility. Percentile bands show the range of statistically plausible outcomes — this is a statistical model, not a forecast.

Current Price
$0.51
Median 1Y
$0.05
5th Pctile
$0.01
95th Pctile
$0.39
Ann. Volatility
123.1%
25th–75th percentile 5th–95th percentile Median path Historical
All Ratios & Metrics

Complete fundamental data with up to 20 periods of history, sparkline trends, and current values across 13 categories and 130+ financial metrics.

Profitability
Metric Trend Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Q2'23 Q3'23 Current
ROE -7.8% -16.5% -26.2% -36.9% -33.8% -77.0% -85.7% -88.7% -92.8% -39.0% -39.03%
ROA -7.6% -15.8% -24.9% -34.4% -32.1% -72.2% -79.2% -81.6% -84.8% -35.4% -35.40%
ROIC -12.2% -72.9% -2872.6% -6.3% -6.4% -6.6% -25.3% -10.3% -9.9% -7.2% -7.17%
ROCE 0.0% -8.2% -17.0% -26.3% -37.2% -40.4% -47.1% -47.1% -47.4% -44.4% -44.39%
Gross Margin -1.0% -95.4% -78.2% -80.6% -1.2% -1.0% -1.4% -1.4% -1.7% — —
Operating Margin -81.5% -65.0% -56.5% -49.6% -42.7% -44.8% -79.3% -421.3% -949.9% — —
Net Margin -78.6% -64.7% -56.3% -49.3% -41.0% -234.2% -74.5% -377.7% -848.2% — —
EBITDA Margin -82.8% -63.6% -53.0% -48.3% -41.6% -43.7% -59.8% -370.3% -929.8% — —
FCF Margin -49.6% -46.2% -42.3% -43.1% -38.3% -35.5% -36.7% -45.1% -66.6% -137.9% -137.92%
OCF Margin -46.3% -42.7% -39.9% -41.3% -36.8% -34.4% -35.2% -43.3% -64.6% -134.8% -134.78%
ROE 3Y Avg snapshot only -50.78%
ROA 3Y Avg snapshot only -46.35%
ROIC 3Y Avg snapshot only -3.20%
ROIC Economic snapshot only -38.20%
Cash ROA snapshot only -34.39%
Cash ROIC snapshot only -6.69%
CROIC snapshot only -6.84%
NOPAT Margin snapshot only -144.48%
Pretax Margin snapshot only -165.85%
R&D / Revenue snapshot only 123.52%
SGA / Revenue snapshot only 57.95%
SBC / Revenue snapshot only 28.39%
Valuation
Metric Trend Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Q2'23 Q3'23 Current
P/E Ratio -111.50 -34.05 -19.70 -5.93 -3.60 -1.79 -0.38 -0.35 -0.41 -1.00 -0.118
P/S Ratio 8767.17 2418.53 1287.43 358.86 186.12 178.65 39.24 45.47 78.55 165.39 6.134
P/B Ratio 8.70 5.60 5.16 2.18 1.39 1.60 0.39 0.37 0.46 0.46 0.059
P/FCF -176.79 -52.38 -30.46 -8.33 -4.86 -5.03 -1.07 -1.01 -1.18 -1.20 -1.199
P/OCF — — — — — — — — — — —
EV/EBITDA -93.76 -27.48 -15.99 -3.38 -1.17 -1.57 1.29 1.26 1.04 1.07 1.071
EV/Revenue 7765.07 1987.72 1037.87 202.35 58.97 72.56 -61.01 -71.41 -84.29 -170.74 -170.735
EV/EBIT — -56.01 -24.28 -4.52 -1.14 -1.53 1.21 1.19 0.99 1.03 1.026
EV/FCF -156.59 -43.05 -24.55 -4.69 -1.54 -2.04 1.66 1.58 1.27 1.24 1.238
Earnings Yield -0.9% -2.9% -5.1% -16.9% -27.8% -55.9% -2.7% -2.8% -2.4% -1.0% -1.00%
FCF Yield -0.6% -1.9% -3.3% -12.0% -20.6% -19.9% -93.5% -99.2% -84.7% -83.4% -83.39%
Price/Tangible Book snapshot only 0.464
Shareholder Yield snapshot only 0.32%
Leverage & Solvency
Metric Trend Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Q2'23 Q3'23 Current
Current Ratio 39.44 30.99 24.20 29.75 24.67 18.34 14.09 18.18 17.71 21.32 21.318
Quick Ratio 39.44 30.99 24.20 29.75 24.67 18.34 14.09 18.18 17.71 21.32 21.318
Debt/Equity 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.062
Net Debt/Equity -0.99 -1.00 -1.00 -0.95 -0.95 -0.95 -0.98 -0.96 -0.96 -0.94 -0.943
Debt/Assets 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.056
Debt/EBITDA -0.04 -0.02 -0.03 -0.11 -0.12 -0.12 -0.12 -0.12 -0.13 -0.14 -0.137
Net Debt/EBITDA 12.10 5.96 3.85 2.61 2.51 2.29 2.11 2.06 2.00 2.11 2.108
Interest Coverage — — -54.97 -82.11 -108.88 -109.58 -58.41 -54.35 -50.20 -44.28 -44.278
Equity Multiplier 1.03 1.04 1.05 1.07 1.08 1.10 1.13 1.11 1.11 1.10 1.100
Cash Ratio snapshot only 20.834
Debt Service Coverage snapshot only -42.438
Cash to Debt snapshot only 16.337
FCF to Debt snapshot only -6.293
Defensive Interval snapshot only 720.2 days
Efficiency & Turnover
Metric Trend Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Q2'23 Q3'23 Current
Asset Turnover 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.002
Inventory Turnover — — — — — — — — — — —
Receivables Turnover 1.16 1.92 3.33 4.24 4.37 4.08 6.30 7.24 3.45 1.45 1.449
Payables Turnover 0.59 1.46 2.23 4.14 3.86 3.42 2.75 3.24 2.23 1.33 1.334
DSO 314 190 110 86 83 90 58 50 106 252 251.9 days
DIO 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 days
DPO 621 249 164 88 95 107 133 113 164 274 273.7 days
Cash Conversion Cycle -307 -59 -54 -2 -11 -17 -75 -62 -58 -22 -21.8 days
Fixed Asset Turnover snapshot only 0.043
Cash Velocity snapshot only 0.003
Capital Intensity snapshot only 391.911
Growth (YoY)
Metric Trend Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Q2'23 Q3'23 Current
Revenue — — — — 4.9% 1.9% 76.2% -3.4% -44.6% -77.4% -77.36%
Net Income — — — — -2.9% -3.1% -1.8% -1.1% -1.0% 62.4% 62.40%
EPS — — — — -2.1% -2.9% -1.4% -1.0% -1.0% 63.2% 63.18%
FCF — — — — -3.5% -1.3% -53.0% -1.0% 3.7% 12.1% 12.15%
EBITDA — — — — -2.6% -87.1% -28.8% 8.8% 10.8% 21.9% 21.92%
Op. Income — — — — -2.8% -93.3% -38.7% -0.5% 2.3% 13.5% 13.48%
OCF Growth snapshot only 11.21%
Asset Growth snapshot only -28.11%
Equity Growth snapshot only -27.83%
Debt Growth snapshot only -13.51%
Shares Change snapshot only 2.13%
Growth Quality
Metric Trend Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Q2'23 Q3'23 Current
Revenue Stability — — — — — — — — 0.21 0.02 0.019
Earnings Stability — — — — — — — — 0.99 0.03 0.027
Margin Stability — — — — — — — — 0.87 0.49 0.491
Rev. Growth Consistency 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000
Earn. Growth Consistency 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.50 0.500
FCF Positive Streak 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Earnings Persistence — — — — — — — — 0.50 0.50 0.500
Earnings Smoothness — — — — — — — — — — —
ROE Trend — — — — — — — — -0.89 0.06 0.064
Gross Margin Trend — — — — — — — — -0.23 -1.23 -1.226
FCF Margin Trend — — — — — — — — -22.61 -97.06 -97.060
Sustainable Growth Rate — — — — — — — — — — —
Internal Growth Rate — — — — — — — — — — —
Cash Flow Quality
Metric Trend Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Q2'23 Q3'23 Current
OCF/Net Income 0.59 0.60 0.61 0.68 0.71 0.34 0.34 0.33 0.34 0.81 0.813
FCF/OCF 1.07 1.08 1.06 1.04 1.04 1.03 1.04 1.04 1.03 1.02 1.023
FCF/Net Income snapshot only 0.832
CapEx/Revenue 3.2% 3.4% 2.3% 1.8% 1.5% 1.2% 1.5% 1.8% 2.0% 3.1% 3.14%
CapEx/Depreciation snapshot only 0.279
Accruals Ratio -0.03 -0.06 -0.10 -0.11 -0.09 -0.47 -0.52 -0.54 -0.56 -0.07 -0.066
Sloan Accruals snapshot only -0.295
Cash Flow Adequacy snapshot only -41.550
Dividends & Buybacks
Metric Trend Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Q2'23 Q3'23 Current
Dividend Yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.00%
Dividend/Share $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Payout Ratio — — — — — — — — — — —
FCF Payout Ratio — — — — — — — — — — —
Total Payout Ratio — — — — — — — — — — —
Div. Increase Streak — — — — — — 0 0 0 0 0
Chowder Number — — — — — — — — — — —
Buyback Yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.26%
Net Buyback Yield 0.0% 0.0% -0.8% -2.0% -3.3% -3.2% 0.3% -0.1% -0.1% 0.2% 0.20%
Total Shareholder Return 0.0% 0.0% -0.8% -2.0% -3.3% -3.2% 0.3% -0.0% -0.0% 0.3% 0.27%
DuPont Factors
Metric Trend Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Q2'23 Q3'23 Current
Tax Burden (NI/EBT) 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 2.13 2.07 2.15 2.24 1.00 1.000
Interest Burden (EBT/EBIT) — 2.00 1.53 1.35 1.00 0.99 1.00 1.00 1.01 1.00 0.997
EBIT Margin 0.00 -35.49 -42.75 -44.78 -51.79 -47.39 -50.38 -60.25 -84.75 -166.36 -166.356
Asset Turnover 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.002
Equity Multiplier 1.03 1.04 1.05 1.07 1.05 1.07 1.08 1.09 1.09 1.10 1.103
Per Share
Metric Trend Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Q2'23 Q3'23 Current
EPS (Diluted TTM) $-0.64 $-1.09 $-1.82 $-2.06 $-2.01 $-4.25 $-4.36 $-4.18 $-4.03 $-1.56 $-1.56
Book Value/Share $8.19 $6.63 $6.95 $5.58 $5.19 $4.76 $4.26 $3.94 $3.60 $3.36 $4.26
Tangible Book/Share $8.19 $6.63 $6.95 $5.58 $5.19 $4.76 $4.26 $3.94 $3.60 $3.36 $3.36
Revenue/Share $0.01 $0.02 $0.03 $0.03 $0.04 $0.04 $0.04 $0.03 $0.02 $0.01 $0.04
FCF/Share $-0.40 $-0.71 $-1.18 $-1.47 $-1.49 $-1.51 $-1.53 $-1.46 $-1.41 $-1.30 $-1.53
OCF/Share $-0.38 $-0.66 $-1.11 $-1.40 $-1.43 $-1.46 $-1.47 $-1.40 $-1.36 $-1.27 $-1.47
Cash/Share $8.17 $6.64 $7.01 $5.55 $5.17 $4.76 $4.43 $4.01 $3.66 $3.38 $4.43
EBITDA/Share $-0.67 $-1.11 $-1.81 $-2.04 $-1.96 $-1.97 $-1.98 $-1.83 $-1.72 $-1.50 $-1.50
Debt/Share $0.03 $0.02 $0.06 $0.23 $0.23 $0.24 $0.24 $0.23 $0.22 $0.21 $0.21
Net Debt/Share $-8.14 $-6.61 $-6.95 $-5.32 $-4.94 $-4.51 $-4.19 $-3.78 $-3.44 $-3.17 $-3.17
Academic Models
Metric Trend Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Q2'23 Q3'23 Current
Altman Z-Score — — — — — — — — — — -0.563
Altman Z-Prime snapshot only 0.835
Piotroski F-Score 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 3 3
Beneish M-Score — — — — -2.16 -4.42 -5.90 -7.82 -12.74 — —
Ohlson O-Score snapshot only -2.434
ROIC (Greenblatt) snapshot only -44.64%
Net-Net WC snapshot only $3.12
EVA snapshot only $-317170930.00
Credit
Metric Trend Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Q2'23 Q3'23 Current
Credit Rating snapshot only B
Credit Score 71.20 69.02 58.79 57.44 58.23 59.40 29.71 29.70 30.03 29.25 29.251
Credit Grade snapshot only 15
Credit Trend snapshot only -30.151
Implied Spread (bps) snapshot only 750.000
Industry Credit Rank snapshot only 11
Sector Credit Rank snapshot only 17

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For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Data sourced from SEC filings. Privacy Terms