2-year weekly history · Speculator, commercial, and small trader positioning
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Flow SignalBEARISH
Distribution phase — commercials selling MSCI EM Index into speculator demand.
Spec:
36,186
(+13,663)
·
Comm:
-53,838
3Y Percentile35%
Latest Week
Speculator Net
36,186
Commercial Net
-53,838
Small Trader Net
17,652
Long/Short Ratio
1.37
Open Interest
1,068,186
Total Traders
394
MSCI EAFE Futures
BEARISH
2-year weekly history · Speculator, commercial, and small trader positioning
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Flow SignalBEARISH
Distribution phase — commercials selling MSCI EAFE into speculator demand.
Spec:
23,847
(+4,637)
·
Comm:
-31,282
3Y Percentile97%
Latest Week
Speculator Net
23,847
Commercial Net
-31,282
Small Trader Net
7,435
Long/Short Ratio
1.59
Open Interest
467,918
Total Traders
196
Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures
BEARISH
2-year weekly history · Speculator, commercial, and small trader positioning
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Flow SignalBEARISH
Distribution phase — commercials selling Bloomberg Commodity Index into speculator demand.
Spec:
-15,127
(+15,052)
·
Comm:
14,635
3Y Percentile22%
Latest Week
Speculator Net
-15,127
Commercial Net
14,635
Small Trader Net
492
Long/Short Ratio
0.89
Open Interest
204,058
Total Traders
79
How to Read COT Data
Speculators (Non-Commercial)
Hedge funds, CTAs, and momentum traders. They follow trends and amplify moves. When their positioning reaches extremes, it often signals the trend is crowded and vulnerable to reversal.
Commercials (Hedgers)
Producers, refiners, and consumers who use futures to hedge their business. They tend to be contrarian — selling into rallies and buying dips. At extremes, they're historically on the right side.
The Percentile Bar
Shows where current speculator positioning ranks vs. the past 3 years. Above 80% = historically bullish, below 20% = historically bearish. Extremes (top/bottom 10%) are the highest-signal readings.
What To Watch For
The best signals come from extreme positioning + divergence: when speculators are max long but commercials are max short, it often precedes a reversal. The weekly change shows who's adding or liquidating.
Source: U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Commitments of Traders reports. Data is published weekly with a 3-day lag.