🏦 Rates Futures Positioning
CFTC weekly report · Report Date: 2026-09-01
SOFR 3-Month Futures
BULLISH2-year weekly history · Speculator, commercial, and small trader positioning
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Flow Signal
BULLISH
Commercials accumulating SOFR 3-Month while speculators exit — smart money positioning bullish.
Spec:
-2,938,633
(-204,400)
·
Comm:
2,937,899
3Y Percentile
0%
Latest Week
Speculator Net
-2,938,633
Commercial Net
2,937,899
Small Trader Net
734
Long/Short Ratio
0.31
Open Interest
13,075,689
Total Traders
872
SOFR 1-Month Futures
BEARISH2-year weekly history · Speculator, commercial, and small trader positioning
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Flow Signal
BEARISH
Distribution phase — commercials selling SOFR 1-Month into speculator demand.
Spec:
-193,182
(-35,991)
·
Comm:
180,437
3Y Percentile
18%
Latest Week
Speculator Net
-193,182
Commercial Net
180,437
Small Trader Net
12,745
Long/Short Ratio
0.58
Open Interest
1,654,938
Total Traders
208
Fed Funds Futures
SQUEEZE2-year weekly history · Speculator, commercial, and small trader positioning
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Flow Signal
SQUEEZE
Short squeeze in Fed Funds — specs covering extreme short positions. Washout in Fed Funds — both sides reducing exposure, potential bottoming.
Spec:
-303,784
(+37,478)
·
Comm:
233,262
3Y Percentile
6%
Latest Week
Speculator Net
-303,784
Commercial Net
233,262
Small Trader Net
70,522
Long/Short Ratio
0.59
Open Interest
2,857,486
Total Traders
206
2Y Treasury Futures
SQUEEZE2-year weekly history · Speculator, commercial, and small trader positioning
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Flow Signal
SQUEEZE
Long squeeze risk in 2Y Treasury — specs unwinding from 3-year extreme. Distribution phase — commercials selling 2Y Treasury into speculator demand. Open interest collapsing — unusual volume.
Spec:
-882,518
(-21,222)
·
Comm:
834,100
3Y Percentile
99%
Latest Week
Speculator Net
-882,518
Commercial Net
834,100
Small Trader Net
48,418
Long/Short Ratio
0.41
Open Interest
4,348,838
Total Traders
482
5Y Treasury Futures
BULLISH2-year weekly history · Speculator, commercial, and small trader positioning
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Flow Signal
BULLISH
Commercials accumulating 5Y Treasury while speculators exit — smart money positioning bullish. Open interest collapsing — unusual volume.
Spec:
-1,380,513
(-121,452)
·
Comm:
1,313,000
3Y Percentile
69%
Latest Week
Speculator Net
-1,380,513
Commercial Net
1,313,000
Small Trader Net
67,513
Long/Short Ratio
0.27
Open Interest
6,339,584
Total Traders
451
10Y Treasury Futures
BEARISH2-year weekly history · Speculator, commercial, and small trader positioning
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Flow Signal
BEARISH
Distribution phase — commercials selling 10Y Treasury into speculator demand. Open interest collapsing — unusual volume.
Spec:
-909,275
(-70,300)
·
Comm:
885,381
3Y Percentile
14%
Latest Week
Speculator Net
-909,275
Commercial Net
885,381
Small Trader Net
23,894
Long/Short Ratio
0.38
Open Interest
5,276,634
Total Traders
431
Ultra 10Y Treasury Futures
BULLISH2-year weekly history · Speculator, commercial, and small trader positioning
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Flow Signal
BULLISH
Commercials accumulating Ultra 10Y Treasury while speculators exit — smart money positioning bullish. Open interest collapsing — unusual volume.
Spec:
-195,222
(-54,397)
·
Comm:
289,480
3Y Percentile
43%
Latest Week
Speculator Net
-195,222
Commercial Net
289,480
Small Trader Net
-94,258
Long/Short Ratio
0.53
Open Interest
2,541,606
Total Traders
235
30Y Bond Futures
BULLISH2-year weekly history · Speculator, commercial, and small trader positioning
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Flow Signal
BULLISH
Commercials accumulating 30Y Bond while speculators exit — smart money positioning bullish. Open interest collapsing — unusual volume.
Spec:
-199,501
(-12,258)
·
Comm:
112,308
3Y Percentile
4%
Latest Week
Speculator Net
-199,501
Commercial Net
112,308
Small Trader Net
87,193
Long/Short Ratio
0.46
Open Interest
1,811,513
Total Traders
239
Ultra 30Y Bond Futures
SQUEEZE2-year weekly history · Speculator, commercial, and small trader positioning
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Flow Signal
SQUEEZE
Short squeeze in Ultra 30Y Bond — specs covering extreme short positions. Commercials accumulating Ultra 30Y Bond while speculators exit — smart money positioning bullish. Open interest collapsing — unusual volume.
Spec:
-369,311
(+36,734)
·
Comm:
317,768
3Y Percentile
6%
Latest Week
Speculator Net
-369,311
Commercial Net
317,768
Small Trader Net
51,543
Long/Short Ratio
0.28
Open Interest
2,398,572
Total Traders
220
How to Read COT Data
Speculators (Non-Commercial)
Hedge funds, CTAs, and momentum traders. They follow trends and amplify moves. When their positioning reaches extremes, it often signals the trend is crowded and vulnerable to reversal.
Commercials (Hedgers)
Producers, refiners, and consumers who use futures to hedge their business. They tend to be contrarian — selling into rallies and buying dips. At extremes, they're historically on the right side.
The Percentile Bar
Shows where current speculator positioning ranks vs. the past 3 years. Above 80% = historically bullish, below 20% = historically bearish. Extremes (top/bottom 10%) are the highest-signal readings.
What To Watch For
The best signals come from extreme positioning + divergence: when speculators are max long but commercials are max short, it often precedes a reversal. The weekly change shows who's adding or liquidating.
Source: U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Commitments of Traders reports. Data is published weekly with a 3-day lag.