🏦 Rates Futures Positioning
CFTC weekly report · Report Date: 2026-03-17
SOFR 3-Month Futures
BEARISH2-year weekly history · Speculator, commercial, and small trader positioning
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Flow Signal
BEARISH
Distribution phase — commercials selling SOFR 3-Month into speculator demand.
Spec:
-559,925
(-43,231)
·
Comm:
562,105
3Y Percentile
24%
Latest Week
Speculator Net
-559,925
Commercial Net
562,105
Small Trader Net
-2,180
Long/Short Ratio
0.78
Open Interest
13,387,148
Total Traders
892
SOFR 1-Month Futures
BULLISH2-year weekly history · Speculator, commercial, and small trader positioning
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Flow Signal
BULLISH
Commercials accumulating SOFR 1-Month while speculators exit — smart money positioning bullish.
Spec:
-189,237
(-10,417)
·
Comm:
189,122
3Y Percentile
15%
Latest Week
Speculator Net
-189,237
Commercial Net
189,122
Small Trader Net
115
Long/Short Ratio
0.6
Open Interest
1,467,622
Total Traders
201
Fed Funds Futures
BEARISH2-year weekly history · Speculator, commercial, and small trader positioning
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Flow Signal
BEARISH
Distribution phase — commercials selling Fed Funds into speculator demand.
Spec:
-23,399
(+53,383)
·
Comm:
4,515
3Y Percentile
79%
Latest Week
Speculator Net
-23,399
Commercial Net
4,515
Small Trader Net
18,884
Long/Short Ratio
0.93
Open Interest
2,153,736
Total Traders
155
2Y Treasury Futures
BULLISH2-year weekly history · Speculator, commercial, and small trader positioning
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Flow Signal
BULLISH
Commercials accumulating 2Y Treasury while speculators exit — smart money positioning bullish.
Spec:
-1,482,667
(-144,431)
·
Comm:
1,382,374
3Y Percentile
1%
Latest Week
Speculator Net
-1,482,667
Commercial Net
1,382,374
Small Trader Net
100,293
Long/Short Ratio
0.28
Open Interest
4,737,969
Total Traders
495
5Y Treasury Futures
BEARISH2-year weekly history · Speculator, commercial, and small trader positioning
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Flow Signal
BEARISH
Distribution phase — commercials selling 5Y Treasury into speculator demand.
Spec:
-1,773,452
(+144,212)
·
Comm:
1,675,099
3Y Percentile
42%
Latest Week
Speculator Net
-1,773,452
Commercial Net
1,675,099
Small Trader Net
98,353
Long/Short Ratio
0.27
Open Interest
6,692,876
Total Traders
447
10Y Treasury Futures
BEARISH2-year weekly history · Speculator, commercial, and small trader positioning
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Flow Signal
BEARISH
Distribution phase — commercials selling 10Y Treasury into speculator demand.
Spec:
-597,878
(-62,995)
·
Comm:
550,787
3Y Percentile
84%
Latest Week
Speculator Net
-597,878
Commercial Net
550,787
Small Trader Net
47,091
Long/Short Ratio
0.56
Open Interest
5,279,072
Total Traders
421
Ultra 10Y Treasury Futures
BULLISH2-year weekly history · Speculator, commercial, and small trader positioning
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Flow Signal
BULLISH
Commercials accumulating Ultra 10Y Treasury while speculators exit — smart money positioning bullish.
Spec:
-205,794
(-8,167)
·
Comm:
295,838
3Y Percentile
42%
Latest Week
Speculator Net
-205,794
Commercial Net
295,838
Small Trader Net
-90,044
Long/Short Ratio
0.5
Open Interest
2,378,373
Total Traders
234
30Y Bond Futures
SQUEEZE2-year weekly history · Speculator, commercial, and small trader positioning
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Flow Signal
SQUEEZE
Long squeeze risk in 30Y Bond — specs unwinding from 3-year extreme. Both commercials and speculators adding 30Y Bond — crowded, late-cycle caution.
Spec:
8,764
(-33,273)
·
Comm:
-117,383
3Y Percentile
94%
Latest Week
Speculator Net
8,764
Commercial Net
-117,383
Small Trader Net
108,619
Long/Short Ratio
1.04
Open Interest
1,791,160
Total Traders
253
Ultra 30Y Bond Futures
CAUTION2-year weekly history · Speculator, commercial, and small trader positioning
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Flow Signal
CAUTION
Both commercials and speculators adding Ultra 30Y Bond — crowded, late-cycle caution.
Spec:
-271,137
(+18,965)
·
Comm:
269,361
3Y Percentile
59%
Latest Week
Speculator Net
-271,137
Commercial Net
269,361
Small Trader Net
1,776
Long/Short Ratio
0.35
Open Interest
2,232,309
Total Traders
214
How to Read COT Data
Speculators (Non-Commercial)
Hedge funds, CTAs, and momentum traders. They follow trends and amplify moves. When their positioning reaches extremes, it often signals the trend is crowded and vulnerable to reversal.
Commercials (Hedgers)
Producers, refiners, and consumers who use futures to hedge their business. They tend to be contrarian — selling into rallies and buying dips. At extremes, they're historically on the right side.
The Percentile Bar
Shows where current speculator positioning ranks vs. the past 3 years. Above 80% = historically bullish, below 20% = historically bearish. Extremes (top/bottom 10%) are the highest-signal readings.
What To Watch For
The best signals come from extreme positioning + divergence: when speculators are max long but commercials are max short, it often precedes a reversal. The weekly change shows who's adding or liquidating.
Source: U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Commitments of Traders reports. Data is published weekly with a 3-day lag.