🏦 Rates Futures Positioning
CFTC weekly report · Report Date: 2026-05-12
SOFR 3-Month Futures
BULLISH2-year weekly history · Speculator, commercial, and small trader positioning
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Flow Signal
BULLISH
Commercials accumulating SOFR 3-Month while speculators exit — smart money positioning bullish. Open interest surging — unusual volume.
Spec:
-1,143,587
(-43,132)
·
Comm:
1,140,626
3Y Percentile
0%
Latest Week
Speculator Net
-1,143,587
Commercial Net
1,140,626
Small Trader Net
2,961
Long/Short Ratio
0.61
Open Interest
13,320,834
Total Traders
892
SOFR 1-Month Futures
BULLISH2-year weekly history · Speculator, commercial, and small trader positioning
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Flow Signal
BULLISH
Commercials accumulating SOFR 1-Month while speculators exit — smart money positioning bullish.
Spec:
-150,631
(+7,564)
·
Comm:
150,634
3Y Percentile
26%
Latest Week
Speculator Net
-150,631
Commercial Net
150,634
Small Trader Net
-3
Long/Short Ratio
0.61
Open Interest
1,325,406
Total Traders
194
Fed Funds Futures
BULLISH2-year weekly history · Speculator, commercial, and small trader positioning
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Flow Signal
BULLISH
Commercials accumulating Fed Funds while speculators exit — smart money positioning bullish.
Spec:
-42,000
(-72,815)
·
Comm:
31,882
3Y Percentile
72%
Latest Week
Speculator Net
-42,000
Commercial Net
31,882
Small Trader Net
10,118
Long/Short Ratio
0.83
Open Interest
1,779,352
Total Traders
138
2Y Treasury Futures
SQUEEZE2-year weekly history · Speculator, commercial, and small trader positioning
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Flow Signal
SQUEEZE
Short squeeze in 2Y Treasury — specs covering extreme short positions. Distribution phase — commercials selling 2Y Treasury into speculator demand.
Spec:
-1,602,612
(+70,717)
·
Comm:
1,520,759
3Y Percentile
5%
Latest Week
Speculator Net
-1,602,612
Commercial Net
1,520,759
Small Trader Net
81,853
Long/Short Ratio
0.24
Open Interest
4,796,510
Total Traders
500
5Y Treasury Futures
BEARISH2-year weekly history · Speculator, commercial, and small trader positioning
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Flow Signal
BEARISH
Distribution phase — commercials selling 5Y Treasury into speculator demand.
Spec:
-1,362,145
(+59,154)
·
Comm:
1,298,718
3Y Percentile
70%
Latest Week
Speculator Net
-1,362,145
Commercial Net
1,298,718
Small Trader Net
63,427
Long/Short Ratio
0.35
Open Interest
6,769,315
Total Traders
447
10Y Treasury Futures
BEARISH2-year weekly history · Speculator, commercial, and small trader positioning
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Flow Signal
BEARISH
Distribution phase — commercials selling 10Y Treasury into speculator demand. Open interest surging — unusual volume.
Spec:
-781,167
(+34,102)
·
Comm:
733,743
3Y Percentile
44%
Latest Week
Speculator Net
-781,167
Commercial Net
733,743
Small Trader Net
47,424
Long/Short Ratio
0.45
Open Interest
5,866,357
Total Traders
431
Ultra 10Y Treasury Futures
BEARISH2-year weekly history · Speculator, commercial, and small trader positioning
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Flow Signal
BEARISH
Distribution phase — commercials selling Ultra 10Y Treasury into speculator demand.
Spec:
-89,901
(+15,259)
·
Comm:
221,305
3Y Percentile
89%
Latest Week
Speculator Net
-89,901
Commercial Net
221,305
Small Trader Net
-131,404
Long/Short Ratio
0.74
Open Interest
2,487,175
Total Traders
236
30Y Bond Futures
SQUEEZE2-year weekly history · Speculator, commercial, and small trader positioning
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Flow Signal
SQUEEZE
Short squeeze in 30Y Bond — specs covering extreme short positions. Commercials accumulating 30Y Bond while speculators exit — smart money positioning bullish.
Spec:
-172,854
(+88)
·
Comm:
86,884
3Y Percentile
8%
Latest Week
Speculator Net
-172,854
Commercial Net
86,884
Small Trader Net
85,970
Long/Short Ratio
0.51
Open Interest
1,837,021
Total Traders
245
Ultra 30Y Bond Futures
BEARISH2-year weekly history · Speculator, commercial, and small trader positioning
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Flow Signal
BEARISH
Distribution phase — commercials selling Ultra 30Y Bond into speculator demand.
Spec:
-238,994
(+20,441)
·
Comm:
253,374
3Y Percentile
82%
Latest Week
Speculator Net
-238,994
Commercial Net
253,374
Small Trader Net
-14,380
Long/Short Ratio
0.36
Open Interest
2,354,986
Total Traders
216
How to Read COT Data
Speculators (Non-Commercial)
Hedge funds, CTAs, and momentum traders. They follow trends and amplify moves. When their positioning reaches extremes, it often signals the trend is crowded and vulnerable to reversal.
Commercials (Hedgers)
Producers, refiners, and consumers who use futures to hedge their business. They tend to be contrarian — selling into rallies and buying dips. At extremes, they're historically on the right side.
The Percentile Bar
Shows where current speculator positioning ranks vs. the past 3 years. Above 80% = historically bullish, below 20% = historically bearish. Extremes (top/bottom 10%) are the highest-signal readings.
What To Watch For
The best signals come from extreme positioning + divergence: when speculators are max long but commercials are max short, it often precedes a reversal. The weekly change shows who's adding or liquidating.
Source: U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Commitments of Traders reports. Data is published weekly with a 3-day lag.