🏦 Rates Futures Positioning
CFTC weekly report · Report Date: 2026-07-21
SOFR 3-Month Futures
SQUEEZE2-year weekly history · Speculator, commercial, and small trader positioning
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Flow Signal
SQUEEZE
Short squeeze in SOFR 3-Month — specs covering extreme short positions. Distribution phase — commercials selling SOFR 3-Month into speculator demand.
Spec:
-2,665,085
(+26,996)
·
Comm:
2,662,698
3Y Percentile
3%
Latest Week
Speculator Net
-2,665,085
Commercial Net
2,662,698
Small Trader Net
2,387
Long/Short Ratio
0.37
Open Interest
13,083,893
Total Traders
891
SOFR 1-Month Futures
BULLISH2-year weekly history · Speculator, commercial, and small trader positioning
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Flow Signal
BULLISH
Commercials accumulating SOFR 1-Month while speculators exit — smart money positioning bullish.
Spec:
-218,920
(-339)
·
Comm:
220,317
3Y Percentile
10%
Latest Week
Speculator Net
-218,920
Commercial Net
220,317
Small Trader Net
-1,397
Long/Short Ratio
0.49
Open Interest
1,535,514
Total Traders
201
Fed Funds Futures
SQUEEZE2-year weekly history · Speculator, commercial, and small trader positioning
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Flow Signal
SQUEEZE
Short squeeze in Fed Funds — specs covering extreme short positions. Commercials accumulating Fed Funds while speculators exit — smart money positioning bullish.
Spec:
-392,302
(+15,277)
·
Comm:
375,562
3Y Percentile
1%
Latest Week
Speculator Net
-392,302
Commercial Net
375,562
Small Trader Net
16,740
Long/Short Ratio
0.44
Open Interest
2,406,137
Total Traders
183
2Y Treasury Futures
BEARISH2-year weekly history · Speculator, commercial, and small trader positioning
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Flow Signal
BEARISH
Distribution phase — commercials selling 2Y Treasury into speculator demand.
Spec:
-1,154,597
(+2,880)
·
Comm:
1,087,806
3Y Percentile
79%
Latest Week
Speculator Net
-1,154,597
Commercial Net
1,087,806
Small Trader Net
66,791
Long/Short Ratio
0.3
Open Interest
4,335,075
Total Traders
499
5Y Treasury Futures
CAUTION2-year weekly history · Speculator, commercial, and small trader positioning
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Flow Signal
CAUTION
Both commercials and speculators adding 5Y Treasury — crowded, late-cycle caution.
Spec:
-1,273,329
(+20,954)
·
Comm:
1,268,494
3Y Percentile
82%
Latest Week
Speculator Net
-1,273,329
Commercial Net
1,268,494
Small Trader Net
4,835
Long/Short Ratio
0.29
Open Interest
6,153,513
Total Traders
452
10Y Treasury Futures
BULLISH2-year weekly history · Speculator, commercial, and small trader positioning
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Flow Signal
BULLISH
Commercials accumulating 10Y Treasury while speculators exit — smart money positioning bullish.
Spec:
-879,706
(-48,031)
·
Comm:
890,118
3Y Percentile
18%
Latest Week
Speculator Net
-879,706
Commercial Net
890,118
Small Trader Net
-10,412
Long/Short Ratio
0.37
Open Interest
5,272,703
Total Traders
432
Ultra 10Y Treasury Futures
WASHOUT2-year weekly history · Speculator, commercial, and small trader positioning
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Flow Signal
WASHOUT
Washout in Ultra 10Y Treasury — both sides reducing exposure, potential bottoming.
Spec:
-137,632
(+8,004)
·
Comm:
220,725
3Y Percentile
71%
Latest Week
Speculator Net
-137,632
Commercial Net
220,725
Small Trader Net
-83,093
Long/Short Ratio
0.6
Open Interest
2,418,834
Total Traders
228
30Y Bond Futures
BULLISH2-year weekly history · Speculator, commercial, and small trader positioning
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Flow Signal
BULLISH
Commercials accumulating 30Y Bond while speculators exit — smart money positioning bullish.
Spec:
-186,790
(-7,734)
·
Comm:
92,427
3Y Percentile
6%
Latest Week
Speculator Net
-186,790
Commercial Net
92,427
Small Trader Net
94,363
Long/Short Ratio
0.52
Open Interest
1,842,498
Total Traders
237
Ultra 30Y Bond Futures
WASHOUT2-year weekly history · Speculator, commercial, and small trader positioning
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Flow Signal
WASHOUT
Washout in Ultra 30Y Bond — both sides reducing exposure, potential bottoming.
Spec:
-321,350
(+3,057)
·
Comm:
293,470
3Y Percentile
27%
Latest Week
Speculator Net
-321,350
Commercial Net
293,470
Small Trader Net
27,880
Long/Short Ratio
0.29
Open Interest
2,446,567
Total Traders
209
How to Read COT Data
Speculators (Non-Commercial)
Hedge funds, CTAs, and momentum traders. They follow trends and amplify moves. When their positioning reaches extremes, it often signals the trend is crowded and vulnerable to reversal.
Commercials (Hedgers)
Producers, refiners, and consumers who use futures to hedge their business. They tend to be contrarian — selling into rallies and buying dips. At extremes, they're historically on the right side.
The Percentile Bar
Shows where current speculator positioning ranks vs. the past 3 years. Above 80% = historically bullish, below 20% = historically bearish. Extremes (top/bottom 10%) are the highest-signal readings.
What To Watch For
The best signals come from extreme positioning + divergence: when speculators are max long but commercials are max short, it often precedes a reversal. The weekly change shows who's adding or liquidating.
Source: U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Commitments of Traders reports. Data is published weekly with a 3-day lag.