🏦 Rates Futures Positioning
CFTC weekly report · Report Date: 2026-10-20
SOFR 3-Month Futures
BEARISH2-year weekly history · Speculator, commercial, and small trader positioning
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Flow Signal
BEARISH
Distribution phase — commercials selling SOFR 3-Month into speculator demand.
Spec:
-2,415,267
(+19,123)
·
Comm:
2,414,401
3Y Percentile
12%
Latest Week
Speculator Net
-2,415,267
Commercial Net
2,414,401
Small Trader Net
866
Long/Short Ratio
0.38
Open Interest
12,982,053
Total Traders
861
SOFR 1-Month Futures
BEARISH2-year weekly history · Speculator, commercial, and small trader positioning
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Flow Signal
BEARISH
Distribution phase — commercials selling SOFR 1-Month into speculator demand.
Spec:
-14
(+26,579)
·
Comm:
74
3Y Percentile
87%
Latest Week
Speculator Net
-14
Commercial Net
74
Small Trader Net
-60
Long/Short Ratio
1.0
Open Interest
1,422,267
Total Traders
210
Fed Funds Futures
BEARISH2-year weekly history · Speculator, commercial, and small trader positioning
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Flow Signal
BEARISH
Distribution phase — commercials selling Fed Funds into speculator demand.
Spec:
307,293
(+227,102)
·
Comm:
-314,872
3Y Percentile
99%
Latest Week
Speculator Net
307,293
Commercial Net
-314,872
Small Trader Net
7,579
Long/Short Ratio
1.92
Open Interest
2,766,665
Total Traders
177
2Y Treasury Futures
BEARISH2-year weekly history · Speculator, commercial, and small trader positioning
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Flow Signal
BEARISH
Distribution phase — commercials selling 2Y Treasury into speculator demand.
Spec:
-856,783
(+54,796)
·
Comm:
815,655
3Y Percentile
98%
Latest Week
Speculator Net
-856,783
Commercial Net
815,655
Small Trader Net
41,128
Long/Short Ratio
0.47
Open Interest
4,533,571
Total Traders
494
5Y Treasury Futures
BULLISH2-year weekly history · Speculator, commercial, and small trader positioning
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Flow Signal
BULLISH
Commercials accumulating 5Y Treasury while speculators exit — smart money positioning bullish.
Spec:
-1,074,109
(+6,095)
·
Comm:
1,038,989
3Y Percentile
98%
Latest Week
Speculator Net
-1,074,109
Commercial Net
1,038,989
Small Trader Net
35,120
Long/Short Ratio
0.4
Open Interest
6,715,851
Total Traders
471
10Y Treasury Futures
SQUEEZE2-year weekly history · Speculator, commercial, and small trader positioning
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Flow Signal
SQUEEZE
Short squeeze in 10Y Treasury — specs covering extreme short positions. Commercials accumulating 10Y Treasury while speculators exit — smart money positioning bullish.
Spec:
-964,293
(+23,809)
·
Comm:
930,819
3Y Percentile
6%
Latest Week
Speculator Net
-964,293
Commercial Net
930,819
Small Trader Net
33,474
Long/Short Ratio
0.43
Open Interest
5,868,295
Total Traders
452
Ultra 10Y Treasury Futures
BEARISH2-year weekly history · Speculator, commercial, and small trader positioning
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Flow Signal
BEARISH
Distribution phase — commercials selling Ultra 10Y Treasury into speculator demand.
Spec:
-149,347
(+63,134)
·
Comm:
193,616
3Y Percentile
61%
Latest Week
Speculator Net
-149,347
Commercial Net
193,616
Small Trader Net
-44,269
Long/Short Ratio
0.62
Open Interest
2,665,818
Total Traders
235
30Y Bond Futures
BEARISH2-year weekly history · Speculator, commercial, and small trader positioning
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Flow Signal
BEARISH
Distribution phase — commercials selling 30Y Bond into speculator demand.
Spec:
-68,419
(+58,019)
·
Comm:
20,686
3Y Percentile
46%
Latest Week
Speculator Net
-68,419
Commercial Net
20,686
Small Trader Net
47,733
Long/Short Ratio
0.76
Open Interest
1,785,457
Total Traders
255
Ultra 30Y Bond Futures
BULLISH2-year weekly history · Speculator, commercial, and small trader positioning
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Flow Signal
BULLISH
Commercials accumulating Ultra 30Y Bond while speculators exit — smart money positioning bullish.
Spec:
-375,161
(-53,564)
·
Comm:
366,826
3Y Percentile
5%
Latest Week
Speculator Net
-375,161
Commercial Net
366,826
Small Trader Net
8,335
Long/Short Ratio
0.26
Open Interest
2,364,949
Total Traders
220
How to Read COT Data
Speculators (Non-Commercial)
Hedge funds, CTAs, and momentum traders. They follow trends and amplify moves. When their positioning reaches extremes, it often signals the trend is crowded and vulnerable to reversal.
Commercials (Hedgers)
Producers, refiners, and consumers who use futures to hedge their business. They tend to be contrarian — selling into rallies and buying dips. At extremes, they're historically on the right side.
The Percentile Bar
Shows where current speculator positioning ranks vs. the past 3 years. Above 80% = historically bullish, below 20% = historically bearish. Extremes (top/bottom 10%) are the highest-signal readings.
What To Watch For
The best signals come from extreme positioning + divergence: when speculators are max long but commercials are max short, it often precedes a reversal. The weekly change shows who's adding or liquidating.
Source: U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Commitments of Traders reports. Data is published weekly with a 3-day lag.