AAL NASDAQ
American Airlines Group Inc.
1W: +4.5%
1M: -12.0%
3M: -20.6%
YTD: -21.2%
1Y: -4.5%
3Y: +6.5%
5Y: -38.5%
$12.61
+0.41 (+3.36%)
After Hours: $12.59 (-0.02, -0.20%)
Weekly Expected Move ±5.5%
$11
$11
$12
$13
$13
Credit Risk of going bust: higher than 82% of companies Debt: 81.8% of company value Bonds: $724.6M held by 517 funds, 104 bp over Treasuries → details ▾
Of US companies ranked in the second-riskiest tenth, about 1 in 87 filed for bankruptcy within a year (2020-2025).
If the stock fell to about $2.16 (down 82%), American Airlines Group Inc. would be worth roughly what it owes.
Total debt $36.27B against a stock market value of $8.08B.
Distance to default 2.47 (Merton model): prices to 2026-10-26, balance sheet 2026-09-30, debt counted $16.66B (short-term plus half of long-term), stock volatility 47.5%; Altman Z'' -1.65. A ranking and a back-test, not a forecast.
Bond figures are fund-reported marks (SEC N-PORT) as of Jul 2026. How these are computed.
If the stock fell to about $2.16 (down 82%), American Airlines Group Inc. would be worth roughly what it owes.
Total debt $36.27B against a stock market value of $8.08B.
Distance to default 2.47 (Merton model): prices to 2026-10-26, balance sheet 2026-09-30, debt counted $16.66B (short-term plus half of long-term), stock volatility 47.5%; Altman Z'' -1.65. A ranking and a back-test, not a forecast.
Bond figures are fund-reported marks (SEC N-PORT) as of Jul 2026. How these are computed.
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Cash Flow
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Analysis
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Weather
Peers
ESG
Institutions
ETF Exposure
Dark Pool
Short Interest
Supply Chain
Oct Typical
⛅
Partly Cloudy
+4.0% YTD avg
Midterm Year
☀️
Sunny
+33.0% YTD avg
2026 Now
⛈️
Stormy
Below typical
20yr Avg YTD
+4.0%
Day 206 of 252
Midterm Year YTD
+33.0%
Presidential cycle avg
2026 YTD
-18.5%
Below 20yr avg
Typical Vol
70%
Annualized
Monthly Weather Forecast
Jan
20yr
💨
+6.7%
Midterm
☀️
+5.6%
50% win
60% vol
Feb
20yr
⛈️
+4.8%
Midterm
☀️
+15.0%
40% win
53% vol
Mar
20yr
⛈️
+0.2%
Midterm
☀️
+20.6%
40% win
74% vol
Apr
20yr
🌫️
+0.6%
Midterm
☀️
+20.1%
35% win
68% vol
May
20yr
⛈️
+4.2%
Midterm
☀️
+31.7%
55% win
63% vol
Jun
20yr
⛈️
+1.5%
Midterm
☀️
+26.2%
35% win
71% vol
Jul
20yr
💨
-0.2%
Midterm
☀️
+28.5%
55% win
78% vol
Aug
20yr
💨
-3.8%
Midterm
☀️
+21.1%
35% win
60% vol
Sep
20yr
⛈️
-4.2%
Midterm
☀️
+19.0%
45% win
57% vol
Oct
20yr
💨
+5.1%
Midterm
☀️
+35.9%
67% win
70% vol
Now:
-5.7%
Nov
20yr
💨
+8.3%
Midterm
☀️
+45.8%
65% win
63% vol
Dec
20yr
💨
+3.7%
Midterm
⛈️
-7.4%
70% win
56% vol
Seasonality (20yr)
Updated: 2026-10-27
YTD: -18.5%