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ADGM NASDAQ

Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc.
1W: -21.5% 1M: -71.1% 3M: -75.5% YTD: -85.8% 1Y: -92.3%
$0.15
-0.00 (-1.86%)
 
Weekly Expected Move ±30.6%
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0
NASDAQ · Healthcare · Medical - Devices · Tech Score Strong Sell · Power 26 · $3.4M mcap · 22M float · 29.33% daily turnover · Short 37% of daily vol

Edge Score

Quantitative competitive moat analysis scoring five pillars of durable advantage — cost leadership, brand intangibles, switching costs, network effects, and efficient scale — using industry percentile rankings on a 0–100 scale.

WEAK EDGE
51.8 / 100
NoneWeakNarrowWide
Primary source: Switching Costs  ·  ROIC: -87.8%
Cost Advantage
56
Intangibles
58
Switching Cost
60
Network Effect
39
Scale
35
The Edge Score quantifies a company's competitive moat using five pillars: Cost Advantage (20%, operating margin and SG&A efficiency vs industry peers), Intangible Assets (25%, gross margin premium, R&D intensity, brand pricing power), Switching Costs (25%, revenue stability, earnings consistency, customer retention proxied by operating leverage), Network Effects (15%, revenue growth with expanding margins, market share dominance), and Efficient Scale (15%, market concentration, ROIC sustainability). Each pillar is scored 0–100 using industry percentile rankings, then weighted into a composite. Wide ≥ 70, Narrow ≥ 55, Weak ≥ 40, None < 40. ADGM shows a Weak competitive edge (51.8/100) — limited structural advantages that may face competitive pressure. The primary source of advantage is Switching Costs. Negative ROIC of -87.8% indicates the company is currently destroying value, though this may reflect a growth investment phase.

Analyst Insights

Wall Street analyst consensus based on price targets and buy/sell/hold recommendations from institutional research coverage over the trailing 12 months.

Analyst Price Targets
$0
Low
$3
Avg Target
$3
High
Based on 1 analyst ratings (12 mo)
Analyst Recommendations
Rating Summary
Price Target Change History
DateFirmAnalystOldNewChangeUpside @ CallStock@Call
2026-04-14 Piper Sandler — Initiated $3 — +125.6% $1.33

Financial Rating

Composite financial health rating (A+ to F) based on discounted cash flow valuation, return on equity, return on assets, debt-to-equity leverage, and relative P/E and P/B multiples.

C
Oct 02, 2026
DCF
1
ROE
5
ROA
1
D/E
1
P/E
1
P/B
1
The Financial Rating evaluates six fundamental factors — discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation, return on equity (ROE), return on assets (ROA), debt-to-equity leverage (D/E), and relative price-to-earnings (P/E) and price-to-book (P/B) multiples — each scored 1–5. ADGM receives an overall rating of C. Strongest factors: ROE (5/5). Areas of concern: DCF (1/5), ROA (1/5), D/E (1/5), P/E (1/5), P/B (1/5).
Rating Change History
DateFromTo
2026-08-11 D+ C
2026-05-12 C- D+
2026-03-30 D+ C-
2026-03-27 C D+

InsiderStreet Scorecard

Proprietary multi-factor scorecard rating companies across seven fundamental dimensions — profitability, balance sheet strength, earnings quality, growth, value, momentum, and safety — each scored 0–100.

★ ★ ★ ★ ★ — Grade A+
Profitability
—
Balance Sheet
24
Earnings Quality
30
Growth
48
Value
15
Momentum
50
Safety
0
Cash Flow
—

Risk & Quality Signals

Academic financial models used by institutional investors to assess bankruptcy risk, earnings manipulation, financial strength, and credit quality.

Altman Z-Score
-6.50
Distress Zone
Piotroski F-Score
2/9
✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗
Beneish M-Score
—
—
Ohlson O-Score
-1.23
Bankruptcy prob: 22.6%
Moderate
Credit Rating
B-
Score: 20.0/100
Trend: Deteriorating
Earnings Quality
—
OCF/NI: 0.61x
Accruals: -30.4%
The Altman Z-Score (1968) combines five ratios — working capital, retained earnings, EBIT, market value of equity, and sales, all relative to total assets or liabilities — into a single bankruptcy predictor. ADGM scores -6.50, placing it in the Distress Zone (safe > 2.99, distress < 1.81). Historically, companies in this range face elevated bankruptcy risk. The Piotroski F-Score (2000) is a 9-point binary checklist — four profitability tests (positive ROA, positive cash flow, improving ROA, cash flow exceeding net income), three leverage tests (declining debt ratio, improving current ratio, no share dilution), and two efficiency tests (improving gross margin, improving asset turnover). Each pass scores 1 point. ADGM scores 2/9, suggesting weak financial fundamentals — the company fails the majority of these accounting tests. The Ohlson O-Score (1980) is a 9-variable logistic regression that estimates bankruptcy probability using firm size, leverage, working capital, current ratio, profitability (ROA), cash flow coverage, negative equity flag, consecutive losses flag, and earnings trajectory. The raw score is converted to a probability via logistic transformation. ADGM's implied 22.6% bankruptcy probability is elevated and warrants attention to the balance sheet. Our Credit Rating model scores companies on five weighted components — solvency (30%), earning power (25%), leverage (20%), liquidity (15%), and cash flow quality (10%) — then blends the absolute score with sector and industry peer rankings. For companies with large buyback programs, equity is adjusted by adding back cumulative 5-year repurchases (capped at 80% of FCF generated) to avoid penalizing shareholder-friendly capital allocation. ADGM receives an estimated rating of B- (score: 20.0/100), with a deteriorating trend.

Valuation

Key valuation multiples comparing the stock's market price to its earnings, revenue, book value, and cash flows. Lower multiples may indicate relative undervaluation versus peers.

P/E
-0.11x
PEG
-0.00x
P/S
0.00x
P/B
-8.19x
P/FCF
-0.89x
P/OCF
—
EV/EBITDA
-1.41x
EV/Revenue
—
EV/EBIT
-1.36x
EV/FCF
-2.02x
Earnings Yield
-187.50%
FCF Yield
-111.91%
Shareholder Yield
0.00%
Graham Number
—
Equity-based multiples (P/E, P/B, P/FCF) compare the stock price to per-share fundamentals and are affected by capital structure. Enterprise value multiples (EV/EBITDA, EV/Revenue, EV/FCF) strip out debt and cash, making them more useful for cross-company comparisons regardless of how companies are financed. The Graham Number — √(22.5 × EPS × Book Value) — is Benjamin Graham's formula for the maximum price a defensive investor should pay. ADGM currently has negative earnings — the P/E ratio is not meaningful.

DuPont Decomposition (5-Factor)

The 5-factor DuPont framework breaks Return on Equity into its component drivers — tax efficiency, interest burden, operating profitability, asset utilization, and financial leverage — to reveal what truly drives shareholder returns.

Tax Burden
1.000
NI / EBT
×
Interest Burden
1.129
EBT / EBIT
×
EBIT Margin
—
EBIT / Rev
×
Asset Turnover
0.000
Rev / Assets
×
Equity Multiplier
8.455
Assets / Equity
=
ROE
-657.8%
The 5-factor DuPont identity decomposes ROE as: Tax Burden × Interest Burden × EBIT Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier = ROE. This reveals whether returns are driven by operating performance, financial leverage, or tax efficiency — three very different sources of profitability. ADGM's ROE of -657.8% is driven by A tax burden ratio of 1.00 indicates minimal tax leakage — the company retains over 90% of pre-tax earnings.

Graham-Dodd Adjusted Valuation

Our adaptation of Graham's growth formula (Fair P/E = 8.5 + 2g) from The Intelligent Investor. The classic version relies on analyst growth projections, which can be unreliable. This adjusted model substitutes the company's realized 3-year EPS CAGR — a backward-looking, verifiable measure of actual earnings power — grounding the valuation in demonstrated performance rather than forecasts.

Two adjustments we make, and why. Growth is capped at 15%. Graham defined g as expected growth over the next seven to ten years, not last year's rate. Across US companies since 1994 the median realized 7-year EPS growth is 5–8% regardless of how fast a company grew beforehand, and of 4,457 company-quarters that grew faster than 200%, none sustained it. Uncapped, the formula assigned fair multiples in the hundreds to companies that had never held that rate — and scored worse than simply reading the P/E. Capped, it carries real information. The verdict has three states, not two. Tested over 377,249 stock-months, this ratio only separates outcomes at its extremes: below 0.25 beat the universe by 1.3 points a year, above 3.0 lagged by 2.7, and everything in between sat inside a one-point band. Rather than call two-thirds of the market "undervalued" on a threshold of 1.0, we say Neutral where the model cannot tell — which is most of the time.

Adj. Growth Rate
0.00%
Fair P/E
8.50x
Intrinsic Value
—
Price/Value
—
Margin of Safety
—
Premium
—

Profitability Trends

Historical profitability ratios tracking how efficiently the company converts revenue into returns for shareholders over time.

Leverage & Solvency Trends

Debt and liquidity metrics showing the company's financial leverage and ability to meet short-term and long-term obligations.

Efficiency & Working Capital Trends

Operating efficiency metrics measuring how quickly the company converts inventory to sales, collects receivables, and manages its cash conversion cycle.

Growth Trends (YoY %)

Year-over-year growth rates for key financial metrics, showing the trajectory of revenue, earnings, and cash flow generation.

Earnings Stability

R-squared of linear regression measuring how predictably revenue, earnings, and margins follow a trend over the trailing 5 years. 1.0 = perfectly predictable; lower values indicate erratic or cyclical behavior.

Monte Carlo Price Simulation

Geometric Brownian Motion with 1,000 antithetic paths over 1 year, seeded from 545 days of historical volatility. Percentile bands show the range of statistically plausible outcomes — this is a statistical model, not a forecast.

Current Price
$0.15
Median 1Y
$0.01
5th Pctile
$0.00
95th Pctile
$0.08
Ann. Volatility
149.6%
25th–75th percentile 5th–95th percentile Median path Historical

Executive Compensation

C-suite compensation breakdown including salary, stock awards, options, and incentive pay. The CEO-to-employee pay ratio and Gini coefficient measure pay distribution fairness.

C-Suite Compensation

ExecutiveSalaryStockTotal
Todd Usen
Chief Executive Officer
$500,000 $— $2,500,473
Deborah Kaster Financial
ancial Officer
$251,902 $— $836,037
Hakon Bergheim Operating
ief Operating Officer
$53,937 $— $171,567
John Dahldorf Financial
ief Financial Officer
$104,640 $— $153,677

CEO Pay Ratio

10:1
CEO-to-Employee Pay Ratio
CEO Total Comp: $2,500,473
Avg Employee Cost (SGA/emp): $257,732
Employees: 41

C-Suite Pay Equality (Gini)

CEO Compensation Mix

Workforce & Productivity

Workforce efficiency metrics measuring revenue, profit, and R&D spend per employee — key indicators of operational leverage and human capital productivity.

Employees
41
-42.2% YoY
Revenue / Employee
—
Profit / Employee
$-611,805
NI: $-25,084,000
SGA / Employee
$257,732
Avg labor cost proxy
R&D / Employee
$259,488
Innovation spend

Scaling Efficiency

All Ratios & Metrics

Complete fundamental data with up to 20 periods of history, sparkline trends, and current values across 13 categories and 130+ financial metrics.

Profitability
Metric Trend Q3'24 Q4'24 Q1'25 Q2'25 Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Q2'26 Current
ROE -6.0% -2.9% -5.3% -8.0% -2.0% -1.6% -2.7% -6.6% -6.58%
ROA -4.3% -1.2% -1.6% -1.9% -1.1% -54.7% -60.4% -77.8% -77.80%
ROIC -13.5% -3.1% -3.0% -3.2% -3.4% -1.0% -91.6% -87.8% -87.75%
ROCE -3.9% -1.5% -1.9% -2.3% -3.6% -68.6% -74.3% -91.3% -91.29%
Gross Margin -2.1% 3.1% — — — — — — —
Operating Margin -57.5% 355.1% — — — — — — —
Net Margin -25.0% 369.3% — — — — — — —
EBITDA Margin -19.6% 393.5% — — — — — — —
FCF Margin -50.1% -406.8% -586.5% -697.6% 164.7% — — — —
OCF Margin -46.8% -375.6% -547.3% -658.1% 153.8% — — — —
ROIC Economic snapshot only -61.21%
Cash ROA snapshot only -48.79%
Cash ROIC snapshot only -92.64%
CROIC snapshot only -90.75%
Valuation
Metric Trend Q3'24 Q4'24 Q1'25 Q2'25 Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Q2'26 Current
P/E Ratio -8.10 -0.27 -0.19 -0.29 -0.40 -0.84 -1.05 -0.53 -0.107
P/S Ratio 202.71 371.67 294.66 476.10 -208.67 — — — 0.000
P/B Ratio 0.49 0.78 1.00 2.31 -22.74 1.69 4.46 -34.87 -8.194
P/FCF -4.04 -0.91 -0.50 -0.68 -1.27 -1.10 -1.64 -0.89 -0.894
P/OCF — — — — — — — — —
EV/EBITDA -6.39 -0.19 -0.27 -0.41 -0.61 -1.11 -1.67 -1.41 -1.412
EV/Revenue 125.50 268.79 428.47 704.17 -329.61 — — — —
EV/EBIT -5.97 -0.19 -0.26 -0.41 -0.60 -1.07 -1.61 -1.36 -1.362
EV/FCF -2.50 -0.66 -0.73 -1.01 -2.00 -1.35 -2.35 -2.02 -2.021
Earnings Yield -12.3% -3.7% -5.3% -3.5% -2.5% -1.2% -95.4% -1.9% -1.88%
FCF Yield -24.7% -1.1% -2.0% -1.5% -78.9% -90.8% -61.1% -1.1% -1.12%
Shareholder Yield snapshot only 0.00%
Leverage & Solvency
Metric Trend Q3'24 Q4'24 Q1'25 Q2'25 Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Q2'26 Current
Current Ratio 4.42 3.27 2.89 2.50 0.84 2.44 1.85 1.41 1.414
Quick Ratio 3.90 2.93 2.51 2.13 0.68 2.24 1.66 1.15 1.151
Debt/Equity 0.18 0.82 1.50 2.05 -16.74 1.75 4.21 -62.65 -62.653
Net Debt/Equity -0.19 -0.22 0.45 1.11 — 0.38 1.95 — —
Debt/Assets 0.13 0.34 0.45 0.50 0.70 0.50 0.61 0.77 0.767
Debt/EBITDA -3.85 -0.27 -0.28 -0.25 -0.29 -0.94 -1.10 -1.12 -1.121
Net Debt/EBITDA 3.93 0.07 -0.08 -0.13 -0.22 -0.20 -0.51 -0.79 -0.787
Interest Coverage -5.26 -81.99 -48.53 -34.28 -36.69 -8.26 -7.56 -7.73 -7.734
Equity Multiplier 1.40 2.43 3.33 4.14 -24.04 3.49 6.87 -81.65 -81.648
Cash Ratio snapshot only 1.024
Debt Service Coverage snapshot only -7.464
Cash to Debt snapshot only 0.298
FCF to Debt snapshot only -0.623
Defensive Interval snapshot only 143.2 days
Efficiency & Turnover
Metric Trend Q3'24 Q4'24 Q1'25 Q2'25 Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Q2'26 Current
Asset Turnover 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000
Inventory Turnover 0.14 0.34 0.49 0.80 0.33 0.32 0.22 0.05 0.047
Receivables Turnover 2.06 1.20 42.00 — -3.18 0.00 0.00 — —
Payables Turnover 0.13 0.31 0.42 1.11 0.34 0.35 0.22 0.09 0.088
DSO 178 304 9 0 -115 — — — —
DIO 2646 1077 751 459 1122 1131 1657 7848 7847.5 days
DPO 2825 1191 860 328 1074 1046 1636 4130 4129.8 days
Cash Conversion Cycle -1 189 -101 131 — — — — —
Fixed Asset Turnover snapshot only 0.000
Cash Velocity snapshot only 0.000
Growth (YoY)
Metric Trend Q3'24 Q4'24 Q1'25 Q2'25 Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Q2'26 Current
Revenue — — — — -1.8% -1.0% -1.0% -1.0% -1.00%
Net Income — — — — -15.1% 56.3% 62.6% 60.7% 60.73%
EPS — — — — -14.2% 67.8% 74.1% 72.8% 72.80%
FCF — — — — -1.5% -11.3% 36.7% 44.7% 44.72%
EBITDA — — — — -20.2% 61.5% 67.3% 67.6% 67.56%
Op. Income — — — — -5.5% 64.5% 71.5% 73.0% 73.04%
OCF Growth snapshot only 40.19%
Asset Growth snapshot only -5.55%
Equity Growth snapshot only -1.05%
Debt Growth snapshot only 46.25%
Shares Change snapshot only 44.40%
Growth Quality
Metric Trend Q3'24 Q4'24 Q1'25 Q2'25 Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Q2'26 Current
Revenue Stability — — — — — — — — —
Earnings Stability — — — — — — — — —
Margin Stability — — — — — — — — —
Rev. Growth Consistency 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000
Earn. Growth Consistency 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.500
FCF Positive Streak 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Earnings Persistence — — — — — — — — —
Earnings Smoothness — — — — — — — — —
ROE Trend — — — — — — — — —
Gross Margin Trend — — — — — — — — —
FCF Margin Trend — — — — — — — — —
Sustainable Growth Rate — — — — — — — — —
Internal Growth Rate — — — — — — — — —
Cash Flow Quality
Metric Trend Q3'24 Q4'24 Q1'25 Q2'25 Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Q2'26 Current
OCF/Net Income 1.87 0.27 0.35 0.40 0.29 0.76 0.65 0.61 0.609
FCF/OCF 1.07 1.08 1.07 1.06 1.07 1.00 0.98 0.98 0.980
FCF/Net Income snapshot only 0.597
CapEx/Revenue 3.3% 31.2% 39.2% 39.4% -11.0% — — — —
CapEx/Depreciation snapshot only 0.402
Accruals Ratio 0.04 -0.86 -1.02 -1.16 -0.76 -0.13 -0.21 -0.30 -0.304
Sloan Accruals snapshot only -0.145
Cash Flow Adequacy snapshot only -49.059
Dividends & Buybacks
Metric Trend Q3'24 Q4'24 Q1'25 Q2'25 Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Q2'26 Current
Dividend Yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.00%
Dividend/Share $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Payout Ratio — — — — — — — — —
FCF Payout Ratio — — — — — — — — —
Total Payout Ratio — — — — — — — — —
Div. Increase Streak — — — — — — — — —
Chowder Number — — — — — — — — —
Buyback Yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.00%
Net Buyback Yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -77.0% -63.2% -1.1% -1.11%
Total Shareholder Return 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -77.0% -63.2% -1.1% -1.11%
DuPont Factors
Metric Trend Q3'24 Q4'24 Q1'25 Q2'25 Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Q2'26 Current
Tax Burden (NI/EBT) 1.00 1.09 1.08 1.07 1.07 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000
Interest Burden (EBT/EBIT) 1.19 0.87 0.89 0.89 0.90 1.04 1.07 1.13 1.129
EBIT Margin -21.03 -1442.60 -1618.71 -1731.02 546.73 — — — —
Asset Turnover 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000
Equity Multiplier 1.40 2.43 3.33 4.14 1.84 2.84 4.45 8.45 8.455
Per Share
Metric Trend Q3'24 Q4'24 Q1'25 Q2'25 Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Q2'26 Current
EPS (Diluted TTM) $-0.32 $-3.86 $-4.24 $-4.49 $-4.85 $-1.25 $-1.10 $-1.22 $-1.22
Book Value/Share $5.27 $1.34 $0.81 $0.56 $-0.09 $0.62 $0.26 $-0.02 $-0.02
Tangible Book/Share $0.43 $-0.07 $-0.56 $-0.80 $-1.45 $-0.42 $-0.68 $-0.96 $-0.96
Revenue/Share $0.01 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $-0.01 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
FCF/Share $-0.64 $-1.15 $-1.60 $-1.90 $-1.53 $-0.94 $-0.70 $-0.73 $-0.73
OCF/Share $-0.60 $-1.06 $-1.49 $-1.80 $-1.43 $-0.94 $-0.72 $-0.74 $-0.74
Cash/Share $1.94 $1.38 $0.84 $0.53 $0.30 $0.85 $0.58 $0.35 $0.35
EBITDA/Share $-0.25 $-4.03 $-4.36 $-4.65 $-5.01 $-1.14 $-0.99 $-1.04 $-1.04
Debt/Share $0.96 $1.09 $1.21 $1.16 $1.43 $1.08 $1.08 $1.17 $1.17
Net Debt/Share $-0.98 $-0.29 $0.37 $0.62 $1.12 $0.23 $0.50 $0.82 $0.82
Academic Models
Metric Trend Q3'24 Q4'24 Q1'25 Q2'25 Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Q2'26 Current
Altman Z-Score — — — — — — — — -6.497
Altman Z-Prime snapshot only -14.243
Piotroski F-Score 1 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2
Beneish M-Score — — — — — — — — —
Ohlson O-Score snapshot only -1.233
Net-Net WC snapshot only $-1.06
EVA snapshot only $-17444770.00
Credit
Metric Trend Q3'24 Q4'24 Q1'25 Q2'25 Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Q2'26 Current
Credit Rating snapshot only B-
Credit Score 38.14 30.22 27.96 25.06 16.69 25.48 20.71 20.00 20.000
Credit Grade snapshot only 16
Credit Trend snapshot only -5.058
Implied Spread (bps) snapshot only 900.000
Industry Credit Rank snapshot only 10
Sector Credit Rank snapshot only 10

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