APLD NASDAQ
Applied Digital Corp.
1W: +0.9%
1M: -20.5%
3M: -16.0%
YTD: -30.6%
1Y: -41.6%
3Y: +316.0%
$19.51
+1.68 (+9.42%)
Weekly Expected Move ±12.0%
$14
$16
$18
$20
$23
Credit Risk of going bust: higher than 93% of companies Debt: 52.4% of company value Bonds: $363.9M held by 331 funds, 312 bp over Treasuries → details ▾
Of US companies ranked in the riskiest tenth, about 1 in 20 filed for bankruptcy within a year (2020-2025).
If the stock fell to about $3.06 (down 84%), Applied Digital Corp. would be worth roughly what it owes.
Total debt $6.48B against a stock market value of $5.90B.
Distance to default 1.18 (Merton model): prices to 2026-10-27, balance sheet 2026-08-31, debt counted $3.24B (short-term plus half of long-term), stock volatility 101.0%; Altman Z'' 1.26. A ranking and a back-test, not a forecast.
Bond figures are fund-reported marks (SEC N-PORT) as of Jul 2026. How these are computed.
If the stock fell to about $3.06 (down 84%), Applied Digital Corp. would be worth roughly what it owes.
Total debt $6.48B against a stock market value of $5.90B.
Distance to default 1.18 (Merton model): prices to 2026-10-27, balance sheet 2026-08-31, debt counted $3.24B (short-term plus half of long-term), stock volatility 101.0%; Altman Z'' 1.26. A ranking and a back-test, not a forecast.
Bond figures are fund-reported marks (SEC N-PORT) as of Jul 2026. How these are computed.
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Supply Chain
Oct Typical
☀️
Sunny
+172.2% YTD avg
2026 Now
⛈️
Stormy
Below typical
20yr Avg YTD
+172.2%
Day 206 of 252
2026 YTD
-30.6%
Below 20yr avg
Typical Vol
87%
Annualized
Monthly Weather Forecast
Jan
20yr
💨
-4.1%
Midterm
⛈️
-62.9%
50% win
122% vol
Feb
20yr
⛈️
-13.1%
Midterm
⛈️
-43.5%
25% win
102% vol
Mar
20yr
⛈️
-30.3%
Midterm
⛈️
-81.9%
25% win
98% vol
Apr
20yr
🌫️
-19.1%
Midterm
⛈️
-55.7%
40% win
118% vol
May
20yr
💨
+85.0%
Midterm
⛈️
-52.2%
100% win
182% vol
Jun
20yr
🌫️
+100.2%
Midterm
⛈️
-65.4%
60% win
171% vol
Jul
20yr
💨
+86.3%
Midterm
⛈️
-59.4%
60% win
201% vol
Aug
20yr
⛈️
+50.1%
Midterm
⛈️
-67.2%
40% win
85% vol
Sep
20yr
💨
+163.7%
Midterm
⛈️
-28.3%
60% win
153% vol
Oct
20yr
💨
+174.2%
Midterm
💨
+32.4%
40% win
87% vol
Now:
-19.9%
Nov
20yr
💨
+150.7%
Midterm
⛈️
-13.3%
25% win
103% vol
Dec
20yr
💨
+1.2%
Midterm
⛈️
-5.6%
25% win
101% vol
Seasonality (20yr)
Updated: 2026-10-27
YTD: -30.6%