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Also trades as: 1378.HK (HKSE) · $vol 119M · CHHQF (OTC) · $vol 0M

CHHQY OTC

China Hongqiao Group Limited
1W: -0.2% 1M: -15.6% 3M: -7.2% YTD: -35.7% 1Y: -13.5% 3Y: +262.2%
$27.02
+0.00 (+0.00%)
 
OTC · Basic Materials · Aluminum · Tech Score Strong Sell · Power 38 · $26.5B mcap · 371M float · 0.0001% daily turnover · Short 68% of daily vol

InsiderStreet Scorecard

Proprietary multi-factor scorecard rating companies across seven fundamental dimensions — profitability, balance sheet strength, earnings quality, growth, value, momentum, and safety — each scored 0–100.

★ ★ ★ ★ ★ — Grade A+
Profitability
81
Balance Sheet
90
Earnings Quality
74
Growth
79
Value
—
Momentum
99
Safety
—
Cash Flow
81

Risk & Quality Signals

Academic financial models used by institutional investors to assess bankruptcy risk, earnings manipulation, financial strength, and credit quality.

Altman Z-Score
—
—
Piotroski F-Score
8/9
✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✗ ✓ ✓
Beneish M-Score
-2.43
Unlikely Manipulator
Ohlson O-Score
-11.90
Bankruptcy prob: 0.0%
Low Risk
Credit Rating
AA-
Score: 80.5/100
Trend: Improving
Earnings Quality
75/100
OCF/NI: 1.55x
Accruals: -11.1%
The Piotroski F-Score (2000) is a 9-point binary checklist — four profitability tests (positive ROA, positive cash flow, improving ROA, cash flow exceeding net income), three leverage tests (declining debt ratio, improving current ratio, no share dilution), and two efficiency tests (improving gross margin, improving asset turnover). Each pass scores 1 point. CHHQY scores 8/9, signaling strong financial health across all three dimensions. The Beneish M-Score (1999) is an 8-variable model that detects earnings manipulation by comparing year-over-year changes in receivables, gross margins, asset quality, sales growth, depreciation, SG&A, leverage, and accruals. Scores above −1.78 statistically resemble past manipulators. CHHQY's score of -2.43 falls below this threshold, suggesting earnings are unlikely to be manipulated. The Ohlson O-Score (1980) is a 9-variable logistic regression that estimates bankruptcy probability using firm size, leverage, working capital, current ratio, profitability (ROA), cash flow coverage, negative equity flag, consecutive losses flag, and earnings trajectory. The raw score is converted to a probability via logistic transformation. CHHQY's implied 0.0% bankruptcy probability is well within safe territory. Our Credit Rating model scores companies on five weighted components — solvency (30%), earning power (25%), leverage (20%), liquidity (15%), and cash flow quality (10%) — then blends the absolute score with sector and industry peer rankings. For companies with large buyback programs, equity is adjusted by adding back cumulative 5-year repurchases (capped at 80% of FCF generated) to avoid penalizing shareholder-friendly capital allocation. CHHQY receives an estimated rating of AA- (score: 80.5/100), with a improving trend. The Earnings Quality score measures how well reported earnings are backed by real cash. It evaluates the operating cash flow to net income ratio (OCF/NI ≥ 1.0 means every dollar of earnings is cash-backed) and the accruals ratio (the gap between earnings and cash flow relative to assets — lower is better). CHHQY's score of 75/100 is high — cash flows strongly support reported earnings.

Valuation

Key valuation multiples comparing the stock's market price to its earnings, revenue, book value, and cash flows. Lower multiples may indicate relative undervaluation versus peers.

P/E
6.45x
PEG
1.74x
P/S
1.05x
P/B
1.35x
P/FCF
—
P/OCF
—
EV/EBITDA
—
EV/Revenue
—
EV/EBIT
—
EV/FCF
—
Earnings Yield
—
FCF Yield
—
Shareholder Yield
—
Graham Number
$361.03
Equity-based multiples (P/E, P/B, P/FCF) compare the stock price to per-share fundamentals and are affected by capital structure. Enterprise value multiples (EV/EBITDA, EV/Revenue, EV/FCF) strip out debt and cash, making them more useful for cross-company comparisons regardless of how companies are financed. The Graham Number — √(22.5 × EPS × Book Value) — is Benjamin Graham's formula for the maximum price a defensive investor should pay. At 6.4x earnings, CHHQY trades at a deep value multiple. Graham's intrinsic value formula yields $361.03 per share, suggesting a potential 1236% margin of safety at the current price.

DuPont Decomposition (5-Factor)

The 5-factor DuPont framework breaks Return on Equity into its component drivers — tax efficiency, interest burden, operating profitability, asset utilization, and financial leverage — to reveal what truly drives shareholder returns.

Tax Burden
0.687
NI / EBT
×
Interest Burden
0.966
EBT / EBIT
×
EBIT Margin
0.241
EBIT / Rev
×
Asset Turnover
1.273
Rev / Assets
×
Equity Multiplier
1.953
Assets / Equity
=
ROE
39.7%
The 5-factor DuPont identity decomposes ROE as: Tax Burden × Interest Burden × EBIT Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier = ROE. This reveals whether returns are driven by operating performance, financial leverage, or tax efficiency — three very different sources of profitability. CHHQY's ROE of 39.7% is driven by Asset Turnover (1.273), indicating efficient use of assets to generate revenue.

Graham-Dodd Adjusted Valuation

Our adaptation of Graham's growth formula (Fair P/E = 8.5 + 2g) from The Intelligent Investor. The classic version relies on analyst growth projections, which can be unreliable. This adjusted model substitutes the company's realized 3-year EPS CAGR — a backward-looking, verifiable measure of actual earnings power — grounding the valuation in demonstrated performance rather than forecasts.

Two adjustments we make, and why. Growth is capped at 15%. Graham defined g as expected growth over the next seven to ten years, not last year's rate. Across US companies since 1994 the median realized 7-year EPS growth is 5–8% regardless of how fast a company grew beforehand, and of 4,457 company-quarters that grew faster than 200%, none sustained it. Uncapped, the formula assigned fair multiples in the hundreds to companies that had never held that rate — and scored worse than simply reading the P/E. Capped, it carries real information. The verdict has three states, not two. Tested over 377,249 stock-months, this ratio only separates outcomes at its extremes: below 0.25 beat the universe by 1.3 points a year, above 3.0 lagged by 2.7, and everything in between sat inside a one-point band. Rather than call two-thirds of the market "undervalued" on a threshold of 1.0, we say Neutral where the model cannot tell — which is most of the time.

Adj. Growth Rate
15.00%
Fair P/E
38.50x
Intrinsic Value
$1727.28
Price/Value
—
Margin of Safety
—
Premium
—
Graham's classic formula uses analyst-projected growth to estimate a fair P/E (8.5 + 2g). Our adjusted version replaces that projection with CHHQY's realized 15.0% 3-year EPS CAGR, capped at 15% — demonstrated performance rather than forecasts, held to a rate companies have historically sustained. CHHQY trades at a premium to its adjusted intrinsic value of $1727.28, suggesting the market is pricing in future growth beyond what historical earnings support. The adjusted fair P/E of 38.5x compares to the current market P/E of 6.4x.

Profitability Trends

Historical profitability ratios tracking how efficiently the company converts revenue into returns for shareholders over time.

Leverage & Solvency Trends

Debt and liquidity metrics showing the company's financial leverage and ability to meet short-term and long-term obligations.

Efficiency & Working Capital Trends

Operating efficiency metrics measuring how quickly the company converts inventory to sales, collects receivables, and manages its cash conversion cycle.

Growth Trends (YoY %)

Year-over-year growth rates for key financial metrics, showing the trajectory of revenue, earnings, and cash flow generation.

Earnings Stability

R-squared of linear regression measuring how predictably revenue, earnings, and margins follow a trend over the trailing 5 years. 1.0 = perfectly predictable; lower values indicate erratic or cyclical behavior.

Monte Carlo Price Simulation

Geometric Brownian Motion with 1,000 antithetic paths over 1 year, seeded from 1165 days of historical volatility. Percentile bands show the range of statistically plausible outcomes — this is a statistical model, not a forecast.

Current Price
$27.02
Median 1Y
$33.58
5th Pctile
$16.93
95th Pctile
$66.61
Ann. Volatility
41.7%
25th–75th percentile 5th–95th percentile Median path Historical
All Ratios & Metrics

Complete fundamental data with up to 20 periods of history, sparkline trends, and current values across 13 categories and 130+ financial metrics.

Profitability
Metric Trend Q4'21 Q2'22 Q4'22 Q2'23 Q4'23 Q2'24 Q4'24 Q2'25 Q4'25 Q2'26 Current
ROE 9.8% 18.4% 19.7% 22.1% 23.2% 18.2% 23.6% 33.0% 29.9% 39.7% 39.73%
ROA 4.2% 8.2% 9.0% 10.1% 10.4% 8.3% 10.9% 15.6% 15.1% 20.3% 20.34%
ROIC 9.0% 17.7% 14.9% 16.1% 16.8% 13.0% 18.6% 26.3% 26.6% 38.8% 38.75%
ROCE 8.9% 18.2% 19.9% 21.9% 21.2% 16.5% 21.8% 32.7% 28.0% 36.9% 36.87%
Gross Margin 23.6% 21.7% 5.2% 8.8% 22.1% 24.1% 29.3% 25.5% 25.5% 30.9% 30.85%
Operating Margin 18.0% 16.8% 0.2% 4.1% 18.3% 19.0% 25.5% 21.8% 21.9% 27.0% 27.02%
Net Margin 12.8% 11.4% 1.4% 3.7% 13.3% 12.4% 16.0% 15.3% 12.6% 19.7% 19.67%
EBITDA Margin 23.3% 21.1% 6.2% 9.4% 23.4% 24.9% 29.3% 26.6% 27.5% 30.9% 30.85%
FCF Margin 16.6% 13.2% 4.7% 5.1% 5.7% 5.4% 12.8% 15.5% 16.1% 18.3% 18.33%
OCF Margin 21.2% 17.4% 10.7% 10.7% 11.3% 11.8% 18.6% 24.1% 23.4% 24.7% 24.71%
ROE 3Y Avg snapshot only 23.35%
ROA 3Y Avg snapshot only 11.75%
ROIC 3Y Avg snapshot only 21.24%
ROIC Economic snapshot only 27.89%
Cash ROA snapshot only 29.67%
Cash ROIC snapshot only 53.59%
CROIC snapshot only 39.76%
NOPAT Margin snapshot only 17.87%
Pretax Margin snapshot only 23.26%
R&D / Revenue snapshot only 0.25%
SGA / Revenue snapshot only 3.38%
SBC / Revenue snapshot only 0.00%
Valuation
Metric Trend Q4'21 Q2'22 Q4'22 Q2'23 Q4'23 Q2'24 Q4'24 Q2'25 Q4'25 Q2'26 Current
P/E Ratio — — — — — — — — — — 6.449
P/S Ratio — — — — — — — — — — 1.050
P/B Ratio — — — — — — — — — — 1.347
P/FCF — — — — — — — — — — —
P/OCF — — — — — — — — — — —
EV/EBITDA — — — — — — — — — — —
EV/Revenue — — — — — — — — — — —
EV/EBIT — — — — — — — — — — —
EV/FCF — — — — — — — — — — —
Earnings Yield — — — — — — — — — — —
FCF Yield — — — — — — — — — — —
PEG Ratio snapshot only 1.741
Graham Number snapshot only $361.03
Leverage & Solvency
Metric Trend Q4'21 Q2'22 Q4'22 Q2'23 Q4'23 Q2'24 Q4'24 Q2'25 Q4'25 Q2'26 Current
Current Ratio 1.64 1.57 1.23 1.20 1.18 1.27 1.43 1.29 2.12 2.13 2.129
Quick Ratio 1.28 1.12 0.70 0.71 0.72 0.81 0.94 0.84 1.44 1.42 1.421
Debt/Equity 0.74 0.71 0.71 0.75 0.69 0.70 0.67 0.69 0.57 0.44 0.437
Net Debt/Equity 0.14 0.13 0.38 0.40 0.35 0.32 0.25 0.25 0.10 0.00 0.003
Debt/Assets 0.32 0.31 0.32 0.34 0.32 0.32 0.31 0.33 0.31 0.24 0.241
Debt/EBITDA 4.18 2.09 1.82 1.65 1.58 1.98 1.66 1.30 1.16 0.70 0.705
Net Debt/EBITDA 0.77 0.39 0.99 0.89 0.79 0.91 0.62 0.47 0.20 0.01 0.005
Interest Coverage — — — — — 52.58 31.59 30.24 14.23 15.74 15.741
Equity Multiplier 2.32 2.25 2.20 2.19 2.17 2.14 2.13 2.06 1.85 1.81 1.812
Cash Ratio snapshot only 1.110
Debt Service Coverage snapshot only 18.657
Cash to Debt snapshot only 0.993
FCF to Debt snapshot only 0.912
Defensive Interval snapshot only 2296.3 days
Efficiency & Turnover
Metric Trend Q4'21 Q2'22 Q4'22 Q2'23 Q4'23 Q2'24 Q4'24 Q2'25 Q4'25 Q2'26 Current
Asset Turnover 0.33 0.68 1.04 1.37 1.37 1.15 1.02 1.09 1.07 1.27 1.273
Inventory Turnover 2.09 3.32 4.32 6.16 7.99 6.14 4.55 4.74 5.01 5.85 5.851
Receivables Turnover 3.18 15.46 18.33 51.12 21.21 20.84 20.81 31.99 32.43 23.94 23.944
Payables Turnover 2.53 5.76 10.79 16.93 14.90 12.93 10.63 13.67 15.50 16.57 16.570
DSO 115 24 20 7 17 18 18 11 11 15 15.2 days
DIO 175 110 85 59 46 59 80 77 73 62 62.4 days
DPO 144 63 34 22 24 28 34 27 24 22 22.0 days
Cash Conversion Cycle 146 70 71 45 38 49 63 62 61 56 55.6 days
Fixed Asset Turnover snapshot only 3.270
Operating Cycle snapshot only 77.6 days
Cash Velocity snapshot only 5.009
Capital Intensity snapshot only 0.833
Growth (YoY)
Metric Trend Q4'21 Q2'22 Q4'22 Q2'23 Q4'23 Q2'24 Q4'24 Q2'25 Q4'25 Q2'26 Current
Revenue — — — — 3.3% 78.5% 9.3% -12.5% -9.9% 24.1% 24.11%
Net Income — — — — 1.5% 7.1% 36.2% 70.5% 66.8% 1.7% 1.74%
EPS — — — — 1.6% 4.3% 34.6% 71.8% 70.1% 1.5% 1.52%
FCF — — — — 47.4% -27.3% 2.0% 1.6% 1.5% 3.2% 3.24%
EBITDA — — — — 1.8% 21.5% 32.0% 50.6% 60.1% 1.4% 1.35%
Op. Income — — — — 1.4% -2.3% 43.1% 86.7% 97.0% 2.1% 2.12%
OCF Growth snapshot only 1.61%
Asset Growth snapshot only 12.89%
Equity Growth snapshot only 33.46%
Debt Growth snapshot only -16.14%
Shares Change snapshot only 8.83%
Dividend Growth snapshot only 98.38%
Growth Quality
Metric Trend Q4'21 Q2'22 Q4'22 Q2'23 Q4'23 Q2'24 Q4'24 Q2'25 Q4'25 Q2'26 Current
Revenue Stability — — — — — — — — 0.64 0.97 0.972
Earnings Stability — — — — — — — — 1.00 0.78 0.777
Margin Stability — — — — — — — — 0.72 0.68 0.682
Rev. Growth Consistency 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.00 0.00 1.00 1.000
Earn. Growth Consistency 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 1.00 1.00 1.000
FCF Positive Streak 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Earnings Persistence — — — — — — — — 0.50 0.50 0.500
Earnings Smoothness — — — — 0.13 0.93 0.69 0.48 0.50 0.07 0.070
ROE Trend — — — — — — — — 0.10 0.17 0.171
Gross Margin Trend — — — — — — — — 0.07 0.09 0.093
FCF Margin Trend — — — — — — — — 0.05 0.09 0.091
Sustainable Growth Rate 5.5% 14.3% 5.9% 8.6% 8.7% 3.3% 12.9% 13.8% 14.8% 14.1% 14.06%
Internal Growth Rate 2.4% 6.8% 2.7% 4.1% 4.1% 1.5% 6.3% 7.0% 8.0% 7.8% 7.76%
Cash Flow Quality
Metric Trend Q4'21 Q2'22 Q4'22 Q2'23 Q4'23 Q2'24 Q4'24 Q2'25 Q4'25 Q2'26 Current
OCF/Net Income 1.66 1.45 1.25 1.46 1.49 1.63 1.74 1.68 1.66 1.55 1.547
FCF/OCF 0.78 0.75 0.44 0.48 0.50 0.46 0.69 0.64 0.69 0.74 0.742
FCF/Net Income snapshot only 1.148
OCF/EBITDA snapshot only 0.866
CapEx/Revenue 4.6% 4.3% 6.0% 5.6% 5.6% 6.4% 5.8% 8.6% 7.3% 6.4% 6.38%
CapEx/Depreciation snapshot only 1.562
Accruals Ratio -0.03 -0.04 -0.02 -0.05 -0.05 -0.05 -0.08 -0.11 -0.10 -0.11 -0.111
Sloan Accruals snapshot only 0.116
Cash Flow Adequacy snapshot only 1.480
Earnings Quality Score snapshot only 0.750
Dividends & Buybacks
Metric Trend Q4'21 Q2'22 Q4'22 Q2'23 Q4'23 Q2'24 Q4'24 Q2'25 Q4'25 Q2'26 Current
Dividend Yield — — — — — — — — — — 7.80%
Dividend/Share $3.35 $3.74 $12.46 $12.32 $12.44 $14.61 $10.86 $20.16 $17.14 $28.98 $14.08
Payout Ratio 43.5% 21.9% 70.2% 61.2% 62.5% 81.9% 45.4% 58.2% 50.6% 64.6% 64.60%
FCF Payout Ratio 33.6% 20.0% 1.3% 87.5% 83.2% 1.1% 38.1% 53.9% 44.2% 56.3% 56.28%
Total Payout Ratio 43.5% 21.9% 70.2% 61.2% 62.5% 81.9% 45.4% 65.7% 65.9% 85.7% 85.72%
Div. Increase Streak 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 1
Chowder Number — — — — — — — — — — —
Buyback Yield — — — — — — — — — — —
Net Buyback Yield — — — — — — — — — — —
Total Shareholder Return — — — — — — — — — — —
DuPont Factors
Metric Trend Q4'21 Q2'22 Q4'22 Q2'23 Q4'23 Q2'24 Q4'24 Q2'25 Q4'25 Q2'26 Current
Tax Burden (NI/EBT) 0.70 0.70 0.70 0.69 0.71 0.70 0.70 0.70 0.68 0.69 0.687
Interest Burden (EBT/EBIT) 1.01 0.99 1.05 1.09 1.07 1.07 0.97 0.95 0.92 0.97 0.966
EBIT Margin 0.18 0.17 0.12 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.16 0.21 0.22 0.24 0.241
Asset Turnover 0.33 0.68 1.04 1.37 1.37 1.15 1.02 1.09 1.07 1.27 1.273
Equity Multiplier 2.32 2.25 2.20 2.19 2.24 2.19 2.16 2.12 1.98 1.95 1.953
Per Share
Metric Trend Q4'21 Q2'22 Q4'22 Q2'23 Q4'23 Q2'24 Q4'24 Q2'25 Q4'25 Q2'26 Current
EPS (Diluted TTM) $7.71 $17.10 $17.75 $20.15 $19.91 $17.83 $23.90 $34.61 $33.86 $44.86 $44.86
Book Value/Share $79.00 $93.11 $90.17 $91.12 $91.10 $105.29 $113.77 $117.69 $133.58 $129.12 $144.59
Tangible Book/Share $73.20 $92.77 $81.72 $90.79 $81.28 $104.96 $103.27 $117.44 $133.32 $128.88 $128.88
Revenue/Share $60.25 $141.69 $206.72 $273.80 $262.02 $246.30 $223.43 $241.38 $240.56 $280.87 $170.11
FCF/Share $9.97 $18.66 $9.65 $14.09 $14.94 $13.22 $28.54 $37.37 $38.79 $51.50 $34.59
OCF/Share $12.76 $24.72 $22.14 $29.38 $29.65 $28.99 $41.57 $58.07 $56.37 $69.41 $39.67
Cash/Share $47.83 $53.34 $29.22 $31.42 $31.33 $39.58 $47.25 $51.83 $62.85 $56.08 $58.24
EBITDA/Share $14.04 $31.37 $35.05 $41.18 $39.98 $37.10 $45.75 $62.47 $65.27 $80.15 $80.15
Debt/Share $58.70 $65.70 $63.75 $68.00 $63.07 $73.30 $75.82 $81.36 $76.01 $56.48 $56.48
Net Debt/Share $10.87 $12.36 $34.53 $36.57 $31.74 $33.72 $28.57 $29.53 $13.16 $0.40 $0.40
Academic Models
Metric Trend Q4'21 Q2'22 Q4'22 Q2'23 Q4'23 Q2'24 Q4'24 Q2'25 Q4'25 Q2'26 Current
Altman Z-Score — — — — — — — — — — —
Piotroski F-Score 4 4 4 4 7 6 7 8 8 8 8
Beneish M-Score — — — — -2.57 -2.26 -1.98 -3.15 -3.08 -2.43 -2.432
Ohlson O-Score snapshot only -11.896
ROIC (Greenblatt) snapshot only 47.31%
Net-Net WC snapshot only $12.82
EVA snapshot only $38402784195.80
Credit
Metric Trend Q4'21 Q2'22 Q4'22 Q2'23 Q4'23 Q2'24 Q4'24 Q2'25 Q4'25 Q2'26 Current
Credit Rating snapshot only AA-
Credit Score 65.30 69.80 66.65 68.15 66.80 70.35 75.00 75.60 76.25 80.50 80.500
Credit Grade snapshot only 4
Credit Trend snapshot only 10.150
Implied Spread (bps) snapshot only 100.000

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