— Know what they know.
Not Investment Advice

HEP NYSE

Holly Energy Partners, L.P.
1W: -3.3% 1M: -3.8% 3M: -2.4% 1Y: +20.1% 3Y: +85.1% 5Y: +11.6%
$20.45
Last traded 2023-11-30 — delisted
NYSE · Energy · Oil & Gas Midstream · $2.6B mcap · 66M float · 1.19% daily turnover

Edge Score

Quantitative competitive moat analysis scoring five pillars of durable advantage — cost leadership, brand intangibles, switching costs, network effects, and efficient scale — using industry percentile rankings on a 0–100 scale.

WEAK EDGE
46.7 / 100
NoneWeakNarrowWide
Primary source: Switching Costs  ·  ROIC: 10.1%
Cost Advantage
41
Intangibles
51
Switching Cost
53
Network Effect
43
Scale
40
The Edge Score quantifies a company's competitive moat using five pillars: Cost Advantage (20%, operating margin and SG&A efficiency vs industry peers), Intangible Assets (25%, gross margin premium, R&D intensity, brand pricing power), Switching Costs (25%, revenue stability, earnings consistency, customer retention proxied by operating leverage), Network Effects (15%, revenue growth with expanding margins, market share dominance), and Efficient Scale (15%, market concentration, ROIC sustainability). Each pillar is scored 0–100 using industry percentile rankings, then weighted into a composite. Wide ≥ 70, Narrow ≥ 55, Weak ≥ 40, None < 40. HEP shows a Weak competitive edge (46.7/100) — limited structural advantages that may face competitive pressure. The primary source of advantage is Switching Costs. ROIC of 10.1% suggests modest returns relative to capital deployed.

Analyst Insights

Wall Street analyst consensus based on price targets and buy/sell/hold recommendations from institutional research coverage over the trailing 12 months.

Analyst Price Targets
Analyst Recommendations
Strong Buy: 0Buy: 4Hold: 4Sell: 4Strong Sell: 0
Rating Summary
ConsensusBuy
Avg Target$—
Analysts0
Price Target Change History
DateFirmAnalystOldNewChangeUpside @ CallStock@Call
2022-12-09 Citigroup — Initiated $19 — +1.8% $18.67

InsiderStreet Scorecard

Proprietary multi-factor scorecard rating companies across seven fundamental dimensions — profitability, balance sheet strength, earnings quality, growth, value, momentum, and safety — each scored 0–100.

★ ★ ★ ★ ★ 65 Grade A+
Profitability
83
Balance Sheet
30
Earnings Quality
74
Growth
66
Value
73
Momentum
91
Safety
15
Cash Flow
85
The InsiderStreet Scorecard rates companies across eight dimensions: Profitability (margins, ROA, ROE), Balance Sheet (leverage, liquidity, coverage), Earnings Quality (accruals, cash conversion), Growth (revenue and earnings trajectory), Value (P/E, P/B, earnings yield, Graham criteria), Momentum (revenue and earnings acceleration), Safety (Altman Z-Score risk adjustment), and Cash Flow (operating cash flow quality, FCF conversion, cash coverage). The overall score blends 35% quality, 35% value, and 30% momentum, with a penalty for distress-zone Altman scores. HEP scores highest in Momentum (91/100) and lowest in Safety (15/100). An overall grade of A+ places HEP among the highest-quality companies in its peer group.

Risk & Quality Signals

Academic financial models used by institutional investors to assess bankruptcy risk, earnings manipulation, financial strength, and credit quality.

Altman Z-Score
1.14
Distress Zone
Piotroski F-Score
8/9
✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓
Beneish M-Score
-2.71
Unlikely Manipulator
Ohlson O-Score
-3.86
Bankruptcy prob: 2.1%
Low Risk
Credit Rating
BB-
Score: 36.1/100
Trend: Stable
Earnings Quality
100/100
OCF/NI: 1.47x
Accruals: -4.1%
The Altman Z-Score (1968) combines five ratios — working capital, retained earnings, EBIT, market value of equity, and sales, all relative to total assets or liabilities — into a single bankruptcy predictor. HEP scores 1.14, placing it in the Distress Zone (safe > 2.99, distress < 1.81). Historically, companies in this range face elevated bankruptcy risk. The Piotroski F-Score (2000) is a 9-point binary checklist — four profitability tests (positive ROA, positive cash flow, improving ROA, cash flow exceeding net income), three leverage tests (declining debt ratio, improving current ratio, no share dilution), and two efficiency tests (improving gross margin, improving asset turnover). Each pass scores 1 point. HEP scores 8/9, signaling strong financial health across all three dimensions. The Beneish M-Score (1999) is an 8-variable model that detects earnings manipulation by comparing year-over-year changes in receivables, gross margins, asset quality, sales growth, depreciation, SG&A, leverage, and accruals. Scores above −1.78 statistically resemble past manipulators. HEP's score of -2.71 falls below this threshold, suggesting earnings are unlikely to be manipulated. The Ohlson O-Score (1980) is a 9-variable logistic regression that estimates bankruptcy probability using firm size, leverage, working capital, current ratio, profitability (ROA), cash flow coverage, negative equity flag, consecutive losses flag, and earnings trajectory. The raw score is converted to a probability via logistic transformation. HEP's implied 2.1% bankruptcy probability is well within safe territory. Our Credit Rating model scores companies on five weighted components — solvency (30%), earning power (25%), leverage (20%), liquidity (15%), and cash flow quality (10%) — then blends the absolute score with sector and industry peer rankings. For companies with large buyback programs, equity is adjusted by adding back cumulative 5-year repurchases (capped at 80% of FCF generated) to avoid penalizing shareholder-friendly capital allocation. HEP receives an estimated rating of BB- (score: 36.1/100), with a stable trend. The Earnings Quality score measures how well reported earnings are backed by real cash. It evaluates the operating cash flow to net income ratio (OCF/NI ≥ 1.0 means every dollar of earnings is cash-backed) and the accruals ratio (the gap between earnings and cash flow relative to assets — lower is better). HEP's score of 100/100 is high — cash flows strongly support reported earnings.

Valuation

Key valuation multiples comparing the stock's market price to its earnings, revenue, book value, and cash flows. Lower multiples may indicate relative undervaluation versus peers.

P/E
9.93x
PEG
0.72x
P/S
4.72x
P/B
2.52x
P/FCF
8.50x
P/OCF
7.78x
EV/EBITDA
10.32x
EV/Revenue
7.17x
EV/EBIT
13.99x
EV/FCF
13.03x
Earnings Yield
8.76%
FCF Yield
11.77%
Shareholder Yield
6.56%
Graham Number
$18.02
Equity-based multiples (P/E, P/B, P/FCF) compare the stock price to per-share fundamentals and are affected by capital structure. Enterprise value multiples (EV/EBITDA, EV/Revenue, EV/FCF) strip out debt and cash, making them more useful for cross-company comparisons regardless of how companies are financed. The Graham Number — √(22.5 × EPS × Book Value) — is Benjamin Graham's formula for the maximum price a defensive investor should pay. At 9.9x earnings, HEP trades at a deep value multiple. An earnings yield of 8.8% exceeds typical risk-free rates, suggesting equities are being compensated for risk. Graham's intrinsic value formula yields $18.02 per share, 13% below the current price.

DuPont Decomposition (5-Factor)

The 5-factor DuPont framework breaks Return on Equity into its component drivers — tax efficiency, interest burden, operating profitability, asset utilization, and financial leverage — to reveal what truly drives shareholder returns.

Tax Burden
0.987
NI / EBT
×
Interest Burden
0.809
EBT / EBIT
×
EBIT Margin
0.513
EBIT / Rev
×
Asset Turnover
0.213
Rev / Assets
×
Equity Multiplier
2.928
Assets / Equity
=
ROE
25.6%
The 5-factor DuPont identity decomposes ROE as: Tax Burden × Interest Burden × EBIT Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier = ROE. This reveals whether returns are driven by operating performance, financial leverage, or tax efficiency — three very different sources of profitability. HEP's ROE of 25.6% is driven by a balanced combination of operating margin, asset efficiency, and leverage. A tax burden ratio of 0.99 indicates minimal tax leakage — the company retains over 90% of pre-tax earnings.

Graham-Dodd Adjusted Valuation

Our adaptation of Graham's growth formula (Fair P/E = 8.5 + 2g) from The Intelligent Investor. The classic version relies on analyst growth projections, which can be unreliable. This adjusted model substitutes the company's realized 3-year EPS CAGR — a backward-looking, verifiable measure of actual earnings power — grounding the valuation in demonstrated performance rather than forecasts.

Two adjustments we make, and why. Growth is capped at 15%. Graham defined g as expected growth over the next seven to ten years, not last year's rate. Across US companies since 1994 the median realized 7-year EPS growth is 5–8% regardless of how fast a company grew beforehand, and of 4,457 company-quarters that grew faster than 200%, none sustained it. Uncapped, the formula assigned fair multiples in the hundreds to companies that had never held that rate — and scored worse than simply reading the P/E. Capped, it carries real information. The verdict has three states, not two. Tested over 377,249 stock-months, this ratio only separates outcomes at its extremes: below 0.25 beat the universe by 1.3 points a year, above 3.0 lagged by 2.7, and everything in between sat inside a one-point band. Rather than call two-thirds of the market "undervalued" on a threshold of 1.0, we say Neutral where the model cannot tell — which is most of the time.

Adj. Growth Rate
6.58%
Fair P/E
21.66x
Intrinsic Value
$40.98
Price/Value
0.53x
Margin of Safety
47.29%
Premium
-47.29%
Assessment
Neutral
Graham's classic formula uses analyst-projected growth to estimate a fair P/E (8.5 + 2g). Our adjusted version replaces that projection with HEP's realized 6.6% 3-year EPS CAGR, capped at 15% — demonstrated performance rather than forecasts, held to a rate companies have historically sustained. HEP trades at a -47% premium to its adjusted intrinsic value of $40.98, suggesting the market is pricing in future growth beyond what historical earnings support. The adjusted fair P/E of 21.7x compares to the current market P/E of 9.9x.

Profitability Trends

Historical profitability ratios tracking how efficiently the company converts revenue into returns for shareholders over time.

Leverage & Solvency Trends

Debt and liquidity metrics showing the company's financial leverage and ability to meet short-term and long-term obligations.

Efficiency & Working Capital Trends

Operating efficiency metrics measuring how quickly the company converts inventory to sales, collects receivables, and manages its cash conversion cycle.

Growth Trends (YoY %)

Year-over-year growth rates for key financial metrics, showing the trajectory of revenue, earnings, and cash flow generation.

Earnings Stability

R-squared of linear regression measuring how predictably revenue, earnings, and margins follow a trend over the trailing 5 years. 1.0 = perfectly predictable; lower values indicate erratic or cyclical behavior.

Monte Carlo Price Simulation

Geometric Brownian Motion with 1,000 antithetic paths over 1 year, seeded from 1800 days of historical volatility. Percentile bands show the range of statistically plausible outcomes — this is a statistical model, not a forecast.

Current Price
$20.45
Median 1Y
$19.09
5th Pctile
$10.02
95th Pctile
$36.43
Ann. Volatility
40.3%
25th–75th percentile 5th–95th percentile Median path Historical
All Ratios & Metrics

Complete fundamental data with up to 20 periods of history, sparkline trends, and current values across 13 categories and 130+ financial metrics.

Profitability
Metric Trend Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Q2'23 Q3'23 Current
ROE 43.5% 89.2% 80.9% 1.1% 55.6% 96.4% 1.2% 81.5% 44.8% 1.0% 99.4% — 52.3% 32.6% — 42.9% 33.3% 25.5% 46.1% 25.6% 25.60%
ROA 8.4% 8.6% 8.9% 10.6% 10.5% 9.1% 10.5% 7.6% 7.8% 9.6% 8.6% 10.2% 9.9% 8.1% 8.1% 7.9% 8.8% 8.2% 8.0% 8.7% 8.74%
ROIC 13.6% 13.4% 17.5% 13.9% 13.8% 16.6% 12.9% 13.8% 11.1% 10.0% 13.4% 15.8% 11.3% 8.4% 12.8% 7.8% 8.2% 8.7% 9.0% 10.1% 10.10%
ROCE 12.6% 12.5% 13.0% 14.8% 14.5% 13.2% 14.2% 11.4% 11.4% 13.1% 12.1% 13.6% 13.4% 9.9% 10.2% 10.4% 11.7% 12.5% 12.6% 11.5% 11.51%
Gross Margin 51.7% 54.4% 50.4% 49.2% 51.8% 53.9% 47.9% 48.2% 51.1% 47.8% 46.9% 47.3% 44.1% 46.1% 40.4% 42.5% 45.0% 46.4% 43.4% 47.7% 47.72%
Operating Margin 49.7% 52.4% 48.9% 47.2% 49.6% 51.8% 45.7% 18.4% 49.2% 36.8% 44.6% 44.1% 41.6% 42.5% 37.0% 28.3% 42.1% 43.2% 39.5% 42.7% 42.71%
Net Margin 35.8% 38.1% 34.9% 60.6% 34.7% 19.4% 66.6% 13.9% 40.3% 50.6% 44.2% 40.1% 38.5% 41.2% 41.8% 28.2% 48.1% 40.1% 35.9% 39.8% 39.80%
EBITDA Margin 51.4% 71.9% 69.3% 93.6% 70.1% 53.7% 1.0% 48.0% 71.8% 82.8% 76.7% 70.6% 71.6% 69.7% 58.9% 45.3% 68.2% 77.2% 74.5% 59.5% 59.45%
FCF Margin 49.0% 47.0% 45.6% 50.4% 50.1% 50.5% 47.7% 49.6% 51.5% 49.5% 50.2% 46.1% 41.3% 43.7% 46.4% 47.6% 53.4% 52.0% 54.7% 55.0% 55.03%
OCF Margin 58.3% 55.8% 53.3% 57.3% 55.8% 57.8% 56.2% 58.5% 63.4% 64.3% 67.5% 65.8% 59.5% 58.2% 57.2% 55.7% 60.5% 57.7% 60.3% 60.1% 60.12%
ROA 3Y Avg snapshot only 8.70%
ROIC 3Y Avg snapshot only 11.20%
ROIC Economic snapshot only 10.10%
Cash ROA snapshot only 12.97%
Cash ROIC snapshot only 14.50%
CROIC snapshot only 13.27%
NOPAT Margin snapshot only 41.89%
Pretax Margin snapshot only 41.50%
R&D / Revenue snapshot only 0.00%
SGA / Revenue snapshot only 3.83%
SBC / Revenue snapshot only 0.25%
Valuation
Metric Trend Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Q2'23 Q3'23 Current
P/E Ratio 10.91 10.25 10.38 8.15 7.42 5.47 5.05 6.00 6.99 7.83 10.46 7.39 6.95 8.49 9.00 9.75 9.82 9.24 10.35 11.41 9.927
P/S Ratio 3.85 3.68 3.75 3.46 3.13 2.07 2.27 1.97 2.40 3.31 3.89 3.24 3.02 3.49 3.64 3.61 3.89 3.64 3.93 4.68 4.723
P/B Ratio 4.56 4.57 — 4.57 4.38 — 3.04 — 3.14 4.05 — — 3.37 2.07 — 2.09 2.48 2.21 2.39 2.83 2.516
P/FCF 7.87 7.84 8.23 6.87 6.25 4.09 4.76 3.97 4.65 6.68 7.76 7.03 7.32 7.98 7.85 7.59 7.29 7.00 7.19 8.50 8.499
P/OCF 6.61 6.59 7.04 6.04 5.62 3.58 4.04 3.37 3.78 5.14 5.77 4.92 5.08 5.99 6.36 6.48 6.43 6.31 6.52 7.78 7.779
EV/EBITDA 10.94 10.83 10.09 8.76 7.85 6.99 6.68 7.33 7.83 8.23 9.57 7.95 7.72 9.63 10.16 10.98 11.40 10.16 9.88 10.32 10.316
EV/Revenue 6.65 6.62 6.63 6.28 6.00 5.03 5.30 4.95 5.33 6.21 6.68 6.01 5.83 6.95 6.85 6.63 6.84 6.33 6.52 7.17 7.173
EV/EBIT 13.03 12.79 12.77 10.79 10.30 9.40 8.80 10.39 11.10 11.26 13.35 10.65 10.31 12.70 12.37 12.46 11.97 10.89 11.36 13.99 13.991
EV/FCF 13.58 14.09 14.54 12.45 11.97 9.97 11.10 9.99 10.34 12.54 13.31 13.03 14.13 15.93 14.76 13.92 12.81 12.17 11.92 13.03 13.035
Earnings Yield 9.2% 9.8% 9.6% 12.3% 13.5% 18.3% 19.8% 16.7% 14.3% 12.8% 9.6% 13.5% 14.4% 11.8% 11.1% 10.3% 10.2% 10.8% 9.7% 8.8% 8.76%
FCF Yield 12.7% 12.8% 12.2% 14.6% 16.0% 24.4% 21.0% 25.2% 21.5% 15.0% 12.9% 14.2% 13.7% 12.5% 12.7% 13.2% 13.7% 14.3% 13.9% 11.8% 11.77%
PEG Ratio snapshot only 0.716
Price/Tangible Book snapshot only 4.792
EV/OCF snapshot only 11.930
EV/Gross Profit snapshot only 15.689
Acquirers Multiple snapshot only 17.122
Shareholder Yield snapshot only 6.56%
Graham Number snapshot only $18.02
Leverage & Solvency
Metric Trend Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Q2'23 Q3'23 Current
Current Ratio 1.15 1.49 1.34 1.20 1.30 1.48 1.62 1.41 1.18 1.28 1.21 1.04 1.23 1.11 0.18 0.17 1.20 0.09 0.09 0.11 0.106
Quick Ratio 1.15 1.49 1.34 1.20 1.30 1.48 1.62 1.41 1.18 1.28 1.21 1.04 1.23 1.11 1.18 1.22 1.20 2.51 1.15 2.15 2.153
Debt/Equity 3.32 3.68 — 3.73 4.04 — 4.11 — 3.90 3.60 — — 3.17 2.08 — 1.76 1.90 1.64 1.58 1.52 1.523
Net Debt/Equity 3.31 3.65 — 3.71 4.00 — 4.06 — 3.85 3.55 — — 3.14 2.06 — 1.74 1.88 1.63 1.57 1.51 1.511
Debt/Assets 0.67 0.70 0.71 0.70 0.70 0.72 0.70 0.70 0.68 0.67 0.66 0.65 0.65 0.61 0.58 0.58 0.59 0.56 0.55 0.54 0.542
Debt/EBITDA 4.61 4.84 4.40 3.95 3.79 4.17 3.86 4.47 4.38 3.90 4.04 3.70 3.76 4.84 4.80 5.04 4.95 4.34 3.94 3.62 3.617
Net Debt/EBITDA 4.60 4.81 4.38 3.93 3.75 4.12 3.82 4.42 4.31 3.85 3.99 3.66 3.72 4.80 4.75 4.99 4.92 4.32 3.92 3.59 3.589
Interest Coverage 3.59 3.61 3.63 4.10 4.03 3.73 4.38 3.66 4.02 5.00 4.62 5.22 5.20 4.92 4.54 3.97 3.79 3.49 3.26 2.84 2.842
Equity Multiplier 4.92 5.25 — 5.32 5.77 — 5.84 — 5.71 5.35 — — 4.89 3.38 — 3.06 3.21 2.91 2.86 2.81 2.808
Cash Ratio snapshot only 0.106
Debt Service Coverage snapshot only 3.855
Cash to Debt snapshot only 0.008
FCF to Debt snapshot only 0.219
Defensive Interval snapshot only 1928.4 days
Efficiency & Turnover
Metric Trend Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Q2'23 Q3'23 Current
Asset Turnover 0.24 0.24 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.24 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.20 0.20 0.21 0.22 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.213
Inventory Turnover — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — —
Receivables Turnover 8.20 9.59 9.41 9.76 8.35 10.05 8.10 8.94 7.60 8.50 8.08 8.83 7.53 7.96 7.44 7.41 7.36 7.80 7.32 6.00 6.004
Payables Turnover 9.25 12.03 13.02 14.50 7.93 12.01 12.55 10.50 6.11 7.68 8.39 7.66 6.10 6.34 7.06 7.06 7.48 9.11 8.69 14.32 14.315
DSO 44 38 39 37 44 36 45 41 48 43 45 41 49 46 49 49 50 47 50 61 60.8 days
DIO 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -56 -60 0 -105 -103 -181 -181.3 days
DPO 39 30 28 25 46 30 29 35 60 47 44 48 60 58 52 52 49 40 42 25 25.5 days
Cash Conversion Cycle 5 8 11 12 -2 6 16 6 -12 -5 2 -6 -11 -12 -58 -62 1 -98 -95 -146 -146.0 days
Fixed Asset Turnover snapshot only 0.428
Cash Velocity snapshot only 52.029
Capital Intensity snapshot only 4.637
Growth (YoY)
Metric Trend Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Q2'23 Q3'23 Current
Revenue 11.4% 7.2% 7.5% 6.2% 5.2% 2.8% -2.6% -6.0% -6.6% -5.5% -0.3% 0.3% -0.7% -1.9% -2.3% 4.0% 10.7% 17.0% 15.6% 11.5% 11.55%
Net Income -8.3% -14.7% -11.7% 4.3% 25.7% 8.0% 21.1% -27.3% -24.2% 5.8% -17.5% 33.9% 26.1% -4.7% 6.3% -12.1% 0.9% 12.3% 8.5% 23.4% 23.36%
EPS -22.1% -16.0% -11.7% 4.3% 25.7% 8.0% 21.1% -27.3% -24.2% 5.8% -17.5% 33.9% 26.1% -8.4% -11.4% -26.7% -15.9% -2.6% 8.5% 23.4% 23.36%
FCF 28.0% 6.3% 0.9% 17.0% 7.7% 10.4% 1.9% -7.5% -4.0% -7.3% 4.8% -6.8% -20.4% -13.6% -9.6% 7.4% 43.1% 39.4% 36.3% 28.9% 28.93%
EBITDA 30.3% 14.3% 24.6% 24.1% 32.2% 21.0% 17.6% -11.4% -16.8% -1.0% -12.3% 12.1% 10.4% -6.1% -5.6% -16.9% -12.1% 0.9% 13.2% 28.5% 28.46%
Op. Income 12.1% 8.7% 9.6% 5.2% 5.4% 1.2% -5.8% -21.6% -22.3% -28.5% -23.7% 6.0% 0.8% 13.7% 8.1% -12.3% -1.5% 1.6% 7.1% 26.9% 26.87%
OCF Growth snapshot only 20.31%
Asset Growth snapshot only -2.08%
Equity Growth snapshot only 6.61%
Debt Growth snapshot only -7.86%
Shares Change snapshot only 0.00%
Dividend Growth snapshot only 8.93%
Growth (CAGR)
Metric Trend Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Q2'23 Q3'23 Current
Revenue 3Y 12.1% 11.3% 11.0% 11.3% 9.8% 9.1% 6.7% 4.7% 3.1% 1.3% 1.4% 0.1% -0.8% -1.6% -1.7% -0.7% 0.9% 2.7% 4.0% 5.2% 5.17%
Revenue 5Y 10.7% 10.0% 10.5% 10.6% 9.9% 9.4% 8.2% 7.5% 6.8% 6.0% 5.9% 5.4% 4.2% 3.7% 3.4% 3.6% 3.8% 3.6% 3.4% 3.0% 3.04%
EPS 3Y -10.2% -11.6% -12.3% -6.8% -5.4% -5.5% -0.9% -12.6% -9.4% -1.4% -4.1% 0.5% 6.3% 1.5% -4.0% -10.7% -7.0% -1.9% -7.4% 6.6% 6.58%
EPS 5Y 4.6% 3.7% 3.7% 5.6% 3.5% -0.5% 1.1% -6.1% -7.1% -4.6% -7.6% -4.6% -4.1% -3.9% -6.5% -8.1% -4.7% -3.1% -3.2% -1.7% -1.70%
Net Income 3Y 9.2% 7.5% 6.5% 13.0% 12.5% 12.1% 17.0% 3.1% -4.4% -0.9% -4.1% 0.5% 6.3% 2.9% 2.0% -5.1% -1.2% 4.2% -1.6% 13.2% 13.23%
Net Income 5Y 17.6% 16.6% 16.6% 18.8% 16.3% 11.9% 13.7% 5.6% 4.4% 7.2% 3.8% 7.0% 6.3% 7.3% 7.1% 5.2% 2.1% 0.8% 0.3% 1.9% 1.94%
EBITDA 3Y 9.9% 8.2% 9.9% 13.3% 14.9% 15.3% 19.9% 14.5% 12.7% 11.0% 8.7% 7.2% 6.7% 4.0% -0.9% -6.2% -6.9% -2.1% -2.2% 6.2% 6.19%
EBITDA 5Y 9.4% 8.0% 10.1% 12.4% 13.1% 11.7% 12.4% 7.8% 7.8% 8.7% 6.5% 7.6% 6.9% 7.4% 7.4% 6.9% 6.8% 5.3% 6.5% 5.7% 5.65%
Gross Profit 3Y 10.7% 9.3% 8.7% 8.6% 7.9% 8.0% 6.1% 4.3% 1.8% -1.1% -1.1% -2.9% -4.1% -5.6% -6.9% -6.3% -4.6% -2.7% -0.6% 1.7% 1.72%
Gross Profit 5Y 13.2% 11.5% 12.2% 11.7% 10.6% 10.5% 8.4% 7.2% 5.4% 3.5% 3.0% 2.6% 1.1% 1.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% -0.1% -0.0% 0.1% 0.13%
Op. Income 3Y 11.6% 10.2% 9.5% 9.3% 8.7% 8.7% 6.5% -0.5% -2.8% -7.7% -7.6% -4.4% -6.2% -6.3% -8.1% -10.0% -8.3% -6.2% -4.0% 5.6% 5.64%
Op. Income 5Y 14.2% 12.4% 13.1% 12.4% 11.3% 11.1% 9.0% 4.5% 2.6% -0.7% -1.1% 1.6% 0.1% 0.9% -0.1% -1.7% -1.8% -1.9% -1.8% -0.6% -0.55%
FCF 3Y 14.3% 17.9% 14.3% 17.1% 24.3% 22.7% 17.4% 18.7% 9.8% 2.9% 2.5% 0.3% -6.3% -4.0% -1.2% -2.5% 3.0% 3.8% 8.9% 8.9% 8.88%
FCF 5Y 13.6% 13.9% 14.8% 18.5% 20.1% 14.0% 11.6% 8.8% 9.1% 10.9% 9.8% 6.7% 8.0% 8.2% 8.9% 10.8% 8.6% 5.6% 5.8% 6.9% 6.91%
OCF 3Y 8.2% 9.1% 5.7% 6.7% 7.0% 8.5% 5.8% 7.7% 9.8% 5.1% 6.3% 6.0% -0.1% -0.2% 0.6% -1.6% 3.7% 2.7% 6.5% 6.1% 6.11%
OCF 5Y 10.0% 8.4% 7.6% 9.8% 9.7% 7.8% 7.0% 6.4% 6.3% 7.7% 7.7% 5.6% 3.9% 3.6% 3.3% 4.4% 6.8% 3.6% 3.9% 4.7% 4.75%
Assets 3Y 11.1% 11.2% 9.9% 10.3% 5.3% 5.4% 6.0% 5.0% 0.2% 0.6% 0.9% 0.7% 1.0% 8.7% 8.9% 8.7% 7.7% 7.7% 6.8% 7.8% 7.79%
Assets 5Y 8.7% 9.4% 9.2% 9.2% 9.4% 9.0% 9.3% 8.1% 7.2% 6.7% 6.1% 6.1% 2.8% 8.2% 8.2% 8.2% 5.0% 5.1% 5.0% 5.1% 5.14%
Equity 3Y 14.0% — — — 0.3% — -0.6% — -1.3% — — — 1.2% 25.9% — 30.8% 31.0% — 35.4% — —
Book Value 3Y -6.3% — — — -15.7% — -15.8% — -6.5% — — — 1.2% 24.2% — 23.1% 23.3% — 27.5% — —
Dividend 3Y -14.3% -14.9% -15.7% -16.2% -15.0% -15.3% -18.7% -22.7% -18.4% -19.6% -15.1% -10.2% -5.0% -0.4% -4.1% -3.2% -1.7% -0.1% -1.7% -3.2% -3.15%
Growth Quality
Metric Trend Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Q2'23 Q3'23 Current
Revenue Stability 0.97 0.96 0.98 0.98 0.99 0.97 0.91 0.83 0.79 0.73 0.72 0.57 0.47 0.40 0.44 0.50 0.50 0.40 0.52 0.57 0.571
Earnings Stability 0.91 0.81 0.82 0.93 0.91 0.70 0.80 0.40 0.38 0.58 0.41 0.31 0.28 0.34 0.21 0.08 0.15 0.15 0.00 0.02 0.018
Margin Stability 0.94 0.96 0.95 0.96 0.97 0.97 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.92 0.92 0.92 0.921
Rev. Growth Consistency 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.50 0.50 0.50 1.00 1.000
Earn. Growth Consistency 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.50 0.50 0.00 0.50 0.00 1.00 0.50 1.00 0.50 0.500
FCF Positive Streak 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Earnings Persistence 0.97 0.94 0.95 0.98 0.90 0.97 0.92 0.89 0.90 0.98 0.93 0.86 0.90 0.98 0.97 0.95 1.00 0.95 0.97 0.91 0.907
Earnings Smoothness 0.91 0.84 0.88 0.96 0.77 0.92 0.81 0.68 0.72 0.94 0.81 0.71 0.77 0.95 0.94 0.87 0.99 0.88 0.92 0.79 0.791
ROE Trend -0.04 — — — 0.13 — — — -0.05 — — — -0.03 — — — -0.21 -0.14 — — —
Gross Margin Trend -0.02 -0.00 0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.01 -0.02 -0.02 -0.01 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03 -0.04 -0.04 -0.05 -0.06 -0.05 -0.04 -0.02 0.00 0.000
FCF Margin Trend 0.10 0.06 0.03 0.11 0.04 0.03 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.04 -0.04 -0.10 -0.06 -0.03 -0.00 0.07 0.05 0.06 0.08 0.082
Sustainable Growth Rate -21.0% -41.5% -34.9% -22.6% -12.0% -36.5% -5.6% -20.3% -1.0% 32.4% 22.3% — 15.9% 8.5% — 6.9% 7.2% 5.4% 8.7% 6.6% 6.64%
Internal Growth Rate — — — — — — — — — 3.1% 2.0% 3.4% 3.1% 2.1% 1.9% 1.3% 1.9% 1.8% 1.5% 2.3% 2.32%
Cash Flow Quality
Metric Trend Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Q2'23 Q3'23 Current
OCF/Net Income 1.65 1.55 1.47 1.35 1.32 1.53 1.25 1.78 1.85 1.52 1.81 1.50 1.37 1.42 1.41 1.50 1.53 1.46 1.59 1.47 1.467
FCF/OCF 0.84 0.84 0.86 0.88 0.90 0.87 0.85 0.85 0.81 0.77 0.74 0.70 0.69 0.75 0.81 0.85 0.88 0.90 0.91 0.92 0.915
FCF/Net Income snapshot only 1.343
OCF/EBITDA snapshot only 0.865
CapEx/Revenue 9.3% 8.9% 7.7% 6.9% 5.7% 7.3% 8.4% 8.9% 11.9% 14.8% 17.3% 19.7% 18.2% 14.5% 10.8% 8.1% 7.1% 5.7% 5.6% 5.1% 5.09%
CapEx/Depreciation snapshot only 0.204
Accruals Ratio -0.05 -0.05 -0.04 -0.04 -0.03 -0.05 -0.03 -0.06 -0.07 -0.05 -0.07 -0.05 -0.04 -0.03 -0.03 -0.04 -0.05 -0.04 -0.05 -0.04 -0.041
Sloan Accruals snapshot only -0.060
Cash Flow Adequacy snapshot only 1.696
Earnings Quality Score snapshot only 1.000
Dividends & Buybacks
Metric Trend Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Q2'23 Q3'23 Current
Dividend Yield 13.6% 14.3% 13.8% 14.7% 16.4% 25.2% 20.7% 20.8% 14.6% 8.8% 7.4% 9.2% 10.0% 8.7% 8.6% 8.6% 8.0% 8.5% 7.9% 6.5% 6.85%
Dividend/Share $2.51 $2.56 $2.57 $2.58 $2.59 $2.60 $2.28 $1.95 $1.65 $1.37 $1.39 $1.42 $1.42 $1.35 $1.23 $1.29 $1.34 $1.40 $1.40 $1.40 $1.40
Payout Ratio 1.5% 1.5% 1.4% 1.2% 1.2% 1.4% 1.0% 1.2% 1.0% 68.7% 77.6% 67.7% 69.5% 74.0% 77.3% 83.9% 78.4% 78.9% 81.3% 74.1% 74.08%
FCF Payout Ratio 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 98.5% 82.7% 68.1% 58.6% 57.5% 64.4% 73.2% 69.6% 67.4% 65.3% 58.2% 59.8% 56.4% 55.2% 55.16%
Total Payout Ratio 1.6% 1.6% 1.7% 1.2% 1.2% 1.4% 1.1% 1.3% 1.0% 69.1% 78.1% 68.1% 70.7% 75.3% 78.5% 85.5% 79.5% 79.9% 82.3% 74.8% 74.84%
Div. Increase Streak 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0
Chowder Number 0.27 0.25 0.21 0.19 0.19 0.27 0.09 -0.04 -0.22 -0.39 -0.31 -0.18 -0.04 0.11 0.14 0.18 0.22 0.28 0.22 0.15 0.154
Buyback Yield 1.5% 1.5% 2.6% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.07%
Net Buyback Yield -4.4% -4.0% -6.3% -9.4% -16.1% -71.5% -61.0% -76.6% -58.8% -9.9% -11.6% -11.0% -27.3% -40.9% -59.5% -56.9% -38.0% -21.6% -0.5% -0.4% -0.41%
Total Shareholder Return 9.2% 10.3% 7.5% 5.3% 0.2% -46.3% -40.2% -55.8% -44.2% -1.1% -4.2% -1.8% -17.3% -32.2% -50.9% -48.3% -30.0% -13.0% 7.4% 6.1% 6.08%
DuPont Factors
Metric Trend Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Q2'23 Q3'23 Current
Tax Burden (NI/EBT) 0.96 0.96 0.96 0.97 0.97 0.98 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.99 0.99 1.00 1.00 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.99 0.987
Interest Burden (EBT/EBIT) 0.72 0.72 0.72 0.76 0.74 0.72 0.75 0.70 0.73 0.79 0.77 0.79 0.78 0.75 0.73 0.71 0.71 0.70 0.68 0.81 0.809
EBIT Margin 0.51 0.52 0.52 0.58 0.58 0.54 0.60 0.48 0.48 0.55 0.50 0.56 0.57 0.55 0.55 0.53 0.57 0.58 0.57 0.51 0.513
Asset Turnover 0.24 0.24 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.24 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.20 0.20 0.21 0.22 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.213
Equity Multiplier 5.18 10.43 9.10 10.53 5.32 10.56 11.48 10.67 5.74 10.74 11.54 — 5.27 4.03 — 5.44 3.78 3.13 5.80 2.93 2.928
Per Share
Metric Trend Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Q2'23 Q3'23 Current
EPS (Diluted TTM) $1.70 $1.74 $1.80 $2.15 $2.13 $1.88 $2.18 $1.56 $1.62 $1.99 $1.80 $2.09 $2.04 $1.83 $1.59 $1.53 $1.71 $1.78 $1.73 $1.89 $1.89
Book Value/Share $4.05 $3.91 $0.00 $3.84 $3.61 $0.00 $3.61 $0.00 $3.60 $3.85 $0.00 $0.00 $4.20 $7.49 $0.00 $7.15 $6.78 $7.43 $7.48 $7.63 $0.00
Tangible Book/Share $0.40 $0.28 $-3.59 $0.28 $0.09 $-3.49 $0.15 $-3.09 $0.54 $0.93 $-2.88 $-2.85 $1.39 $4.05 $-3.01 $4.11 $3.60 $4.28 $4.34 $4.51 $4.51
Revenue/Share $4.80 $4.85 $4.97 $5.06 $5.05 $4.99 $4.84 $4.76 $4.72 $4.72 $4.82 $4.77 $4.69 $4.45 $3.93 $4.14 $4.33 $4.51 $4.54 $4.62 $5.19
FCF/Share $2.35 $2.28 $2.27 $2.55 $2.53 $2.52 $2.31 $2.36 $2.43 $2.34 $2.42 $2.20 $1.94 $1.94 $1.82 $1.97 $2.31 $2.35 $2.49 $2.54 $2.77
OCF/Share $2.80 $2.71 $2.65 $2.90 $2.82 $2.88 $2.72 $2.79 $2.99 $3.03 $3.25 $3.14 $2.79 $2.59 $2.25 $2.31 $2.62 $2.60 $2.74 $2.78 $3.14
Cash/Share $0.03 $0.11 $0.07 $0.07 $0.13 $0.18 $0.18 $0.17 $0.21 $0.19 $0.19 $0.12 $0.14 $0.14 $0.12 $0.12 $0.09 $0.06 $0.06 $0.09 $0.10
EBITDA/Share $2.92 $2.97 $3.27 $3.63 $3.86 $3.59 $3.84 $3.22 $3.21 $3.56 $3.37 $3.61 $3.54 $3.21 $2.65 $2.50 $2.60 $2.81 $3.00 $3.21 $3.21
Debt/Share $13.46 $14.38 $14.37 $14.32 $14.60 $14.98 $14.83 $14.38 $14.04 $13.87 $13.62 $13.33 $13.32 $15.55 $12.72 $12.61 $12.86 $12.18 $11.83 $11.61 $11.61
Net Debt/Share $13.43 $14.27 $14.31 $14.25 $14.47 $14.80 $14.65 $14.21 $13.83 $13.68 $13.43 $13.21 $13.18 $15.42 $12.60 $12.48 $12.77 $12.13 $11.77 $11.53 $11.53
Academic Models
Metric Trend Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Q2'23 Q3'23 Current
Altman Z-Score — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — 1.144
Altman Z-Prime snapshot only 1.572
Piotroski F-Score 5 6 6 6 8 6 7 5 5 6 6 7 7 4 4 4 5 7 8 8 8
Beneish M-Score -2.69 -2.78 -2.44 -2.62 -2.39 -2.53 -2.43 -2.56 -2.85 -2.51 -2.85 -2.86 -2.44 -2.46 -2.15 -1.81 -2.37 -2.24 -2.62 -2.71 -2.708
Ohlson O-Score snapshot only -3.864
ROIC (Greenblatt) snapshot only 23.58%
Net-Net WC snapshot only $-21.32
EVA snapshot only $2437766.47
Credit
Metric Trend Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Q2'23 Q3'23 Current
Credit Rating snapshot only BB-
Credit Score 48.17 51.48 46.27 48.11 49.09 40.85 46.91 42.76 41.58 50.00 38.26 43.57 45.82 38.80 31.47 35.48 39.84 36.78 43.38 36.08 36.082
Credit Grade snapshot only 13
Credit Trend snapshot only 0.599
Implied Spread (bps) snapshot only 550.000
Industry Credit Rank snapshot only 34
Sector Credit Rank snapshot only 24

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