— Know what they know.
Not Investment Advice
Also trades as: 0M58.L (LSE) · $vol 0M

HOLI NASDAQ

Hollysys Automation Technologies Ltd.
1W: +0.8% 1M: +22.1% 3M: +7.8% 1Y: +51.2% 3Y: +69.1% 5Y: +54.9%
$26.42
Last traded 2024-07-25 — delisted
NASDAQ · Industrials · Electrical Equipment & Parts · $1.6B mcap · 43M float · 1.36% daily turnover

Edge Score

Quantitative competitive moat analysis scoring five pillars of durable advantage — cost leadership, brand intangibles, switching costs, network effects, and efficient scale — using industry percentile rankings on a 0–100 scale.

WEAK EDGE
48.4 / 100
NoneWeakNarrowWide
Primary source: Efficient Scale  ·  ROIC: 10.6%  ·  5Y Avg: 20.5%
Cost Advantage
52
Intangibles
52
Switching Cost
47
Network Effect
28
Scale ★
60
The Edge Score quantifies a company's competitive moat using five pillars: Cost Advantage (20%, operating margin and SG&A efficiency vs industry peers), Intangible Assets (25%, gross margin premium, R&D intensity, brand pricing power), Switching Costs (25%, revenue stability, earnings consistency, customer retention proxied by operating leverage), Network Effects (15%, revenue growth with expanding margins, market share dominance), and Efficient Scale (15%, market concentration, ROIC sustainability). Each pillar is scored 0–100 using industry percentile rankings, then weighted into a composite. Wide ≥ 70, Narrow ≥ 55, Weak ≥ 40, None < 40. HOLI shows a Weak competitive edge (48.4/100) — limited structural advantages that may face competitive pressure. The primary source of advantage is Efficient Scale. ROIC of 10.6% suggests modest returns relative to capital deployed.

Analyst Insights

Wall Street analyst consensus based on price targets and buy/sell/hold recommendations from institutional research coverage over the trailing 12 months.

Analyst Price Targets
Analyst Recommendations
Strong Buy: 0Buy: 10Hold: 0Sell: 1Strong Sell: 0
Rating Summary
ConsensusBuy
Avg Target$—
Analysts0

InsiderStreet Scorecard

Proprietary multi-factor scorecard rating companies across seven fundamental dimensions — profitability, balance sheet strength, earnings quality, growth, value, momentum, and safety — each scored 0–100.

★ ★ ★ ★ ★ 45 Grade C
Profitability
22
Balance Sheet
98
Earnings Quality
66
Growth
26
Value
65
Momentum
49
Safety
90
Cash Flow
46
The InsiderStreet Scorecard rates companies across eight dimensions: Profitability (margins, ROA, ROE), Balance Sheet (leverage, liquidity, coverage), Earnings Quality (accruals, cash conversion), Growth (revenue and earnings trajectory), Value (P/E, P/B, earnings yield, Graham criteria), Momentum (revenue and earnings acceleration), Safety (Altman Z-Score risk adjustment), and Cash Flow (operating cash flow quality, FCF conversion, cash coverage). The overall score blends 35% quality, 35% value, and 30% momentum, with a penalty for distress-zone Altman scores. HOLI scores highest in Balance Sheet (98/100) and lowest in Profitability (22/100). A grade of C represents mixed fundamentals — strengths in some areas offset by weaknesses.

Risk & Quality Signals

Academic financial models used by institutional investors to assess bankruptcy risk, earnings manipulation, financial strength, and credit quality.

Altman Z-Score
3.76
Safe Zone
Piotroski F-Score
4/9
✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓
Beneish M-Score
-2.60
Unlikely Manipulator
Ohlson O-Score
-9.11
Bankruptcy prob: 0.0%
Low Risk
Credit Rating
AA+
Score: 91.2/100
Trend: Improving
Earnings Quality
75/100
OCF/NI: 0.94x
Accruals: 0.2%
The Altman Z-Score (1968) combines five ratios — working capital, retained earnings, EBIT, market value of equity, and sales, all relative to total assets or liabilities — into a single bankruptcy predictor. HOLI scores 3.76, placing it in the Safe Zone (safe > 2.99, distress < 1.81). Bankruptcy is statistically unlikely within the next two years. The Piotroski F-Score (2000) is a 9-point binary checklist — four profitability tests (positive ROA, positive cash flow, improving ROA, cash flow exceeding net income), three leverage tests (declining debt ratio, improving current ratio, no share dilution), and two efficiency tests (improving gross margin, improving asset turnover). Each pass scores 1 point. HOLI scores 4/9, indicating moderate financial health — some areas of strength offset by weaknesses in others. The Beneish M-Score (1999) is an 8-variable model that detects earnings manipulation by comparing year-over-year changes in receivables, gross margins, asset quality, sales growth, depreciation, SG&A, leverage, and accruals. Scores above −1.78 statistically resemble past manipulators. HOLI's score of -2.60 falls below this threshold, suggesting earnings are unlikely to be manipulated. The Ohlson O-Score (1980) is a 9-variable logistic regression that estimates bankruptcy probability using firm size, leverage, working capital, current ratio, profitability (ROA), cash flow coverage, negative equity flag, consecutive losses flag, and earnings trajectory. The raw score is converted to a probability via logistic transformation. HOLI's implied 0.0% bankruptcy probability is well within safe territory. Our Credit Rating model scores companies on five weighted components — solvency (30%), earning power (25%), leverage (20%), liquidity (15%), and cash flow quality (10%) — then blends the absolute score with sector and industry peer rankings. For companies with large buyback programs, equity is adjusted by adding back cumulative 5-year repurchases (capped at 80% of FCF generated) to avoid penalizing shareholder-friendly capital allocation. HOLI receives an estimated rating of AA+ (score: 91.2/100), with a improving trend. The Earnings Quality score measures how well reported earnings are backed by real cash. It evaluates the operating cash flow to net income ratio (OCF/NI ≥ 1.0 means every dollar of earnings is cash-backed) and the accruals ratio (the gap between earnings and cash flow relative to assets — lower is better). HOLI's score of 75/100 is high — cash flows strongly support reported earnings.

Valuation

Key valuation multiples comparing the stock's market price to its earnings, revenue, book value, and cash flows. Lower multiples may indicate relative undervaluation versus peers.

P/E
15.18x
PEG
-0.53x
P/S
2.11x
P/B
1.38x
P/FCF
38.62x
P/OCF
22.48x
EV/EBITDA
8.93x
EV/Revenue
1.14x
EV/EBIT
9.99x
EV/FCF
22.57x
Earnings Yield
4.72%
FCF Yield
2.59%
Shareholder Yield
0.00%
Graham Number
$23.14
Equity-based multiples (P/E, P/B, P/FCF) compare the stock price to per-share fundamentals and are affected by capital structure. Enterprise value multiples (EV/EBITDA, EV/Revenue, EV/FCF) strip out debt and cash, making them more useful for cross-company comparisons regardless of how companies are financed. The Graham Number — √(22.5 × EPS × Book Value) — is Benjamin Graham's formula for the maximum price a defensive investor should pay. At 15.2x earnings, HOLI trades at a reasonable valuation. Graham's intrinsic value formula yields $23.14 per share, 14% below the current price.

DuPont Decomposition (5-Factor)

The 5-factor DuPont framework breaks Return on Equity into its component drivers — tax efficiency, interest burden, operating profitability, asset utilization, and financial leverage — to reveal what truly drives shareholder returns.

Tax Burden
0.881
NI / EBT
×
Interest Burden
0.916
EBT / EBIT
×
EBIT Margin
0.114
EBIT / Rev
×
Asset Turnover
0.463
Rev / Assets
×
Equity Multiplier
1.439
Assets / Equity
=
ROE
6.2%
The 5-factor DuPont identity decomposes ROE as: Tax Burden × Interest Burden × EBIT Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier = ROE. This reveals whether returns are driven by operating performance, financial leverage, or tax efficiency — three very different sources of profitability. HOLI's ROE of 6.2% is driven by Asset Turnover (0.463), indicating efficient use of assets to generate revenue.

Graham-Dodd Adjusted Valuation

Our adaptation of Graham's growth formula (Fair P/E = 8.5 + 2g) from The Intelligent Investor. The classic version relies on analyst growth projections, which can be unreliable. This adjusted model substitutes the company's realized 3-year EPS CAGR — a backward-looking, verifiable measure of actual earnings power — grounding the valuation in demonstrated performance rather than forecasts.

Two adjustments we make, and why. Growth is capped at 15%. Graham defined g as expected growth over the next seven to ten years, not last year's rate. Across US companies since 1994 the median realized 7-year EPS growth is 5–8% regardless of how fast a company grew beforehand, and of 4,457 company-quarters that grew faster than 200%, none sustained it. Uncapped, the formula assigned fair multiples in the hundreds to companies that had never held that rate — and scored worse than simply reading the P/E. Capped, it carries real information. The verdict has three states, not two. Tested over 377,249 stock-months, this ratio only separates outcomes at its extremes: below 0.25 beat the universe by 1.3 points a year, above 3.0 lagged by 2.7, and everything in between sat inside a one-point band. Rather than call two-thirds of the market "undervalued" on a threshold of 1.0, we say Neutral where the model cannot tell — which is most of the time.

Adj. Growth Rate
1.68%
Fair P/E
11.87x
Intrinsic Value
$14.33
Price/Value
1.78x
Margin of Safety
-78.46%
Premium
78.46%
Assessment
Neutral
Graham's classic formula uses analyst-projected growth to estimate a fair P/E (8.5 + 2g). Our adjusted version replaces that projection with HOLI's realized 1.7% 3-year EPS CAGR, capped at 15% — demonstrated performance rather than forecasts, held to a rate companies have historically sustained. HOLI trades at a 78% premium to its adjusted intrinsic value of $14.33, suggesting the market is pricing in future growth beyond what historical earnings support. The adjusted fair P/E of 11.9x compares to the current market P/E of 15.2x.

Profitability Trends

Historical profitability ratios tracking how efficiently the company converts revenue into returns for shareholders over time.

Leverage & Solvency Trends

Debt and liquidity metrics showing the company's financial leverage and ability to meet short-term and long-term obligations.

Efficiency & Working Capital Trends

Operating efficiency metrics measuring how quickly the company converts inventory to sales, collects receivables, and manages its cash conversion cycle.

Growth Trends (YoY %)

Year-over-year growth rates for key financial metrics, showing the trajectory of revenue, earnings, and cash flow generation.

Earnings Stability

R-squared of linear regression measuring how predictably revenue, earnings, and margins follow a trend over the trailing 5 years. 1.0 = perfectly predictable; lower values indicate erratic or cyclical behavior.

Monte Carlo Price Simulation

Geometric Brownian Motion with 1,000 antithetic paths over 1 year, seeded from 1800 days of historical volatility. Percentile bands show the range of statistically plausible outcomes — this is a statistical model, not a forecast.

Current Price
$26.42
Median 1Y
$26.09
5th Pctile
$13.29
95th Pctile
$51.28
Ann. Volatility
43.1%
25th–75th percentile 5th–95th percentile Median path Historical
All Ratios & Metrics

Complete fundamental data with up to 20 periods of history, sparkline trends, and current values across 13 categories and 130+ financial metrics.

Profitability
Metric Trend Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Q2'23 Q3'23 Q4'23 Q1'24 Q2'24 Q3'24 Current
ROE 14.0% 14.3% 12.4% 10.7% 8.2% 7.2% 6.5% 6.7% 8.5% 7.6% 7.2% 7.1% 7.2% 8.0% 9.1% 8.5% 9.1% 10.1% 6.8% 6.2% 6.16%
ROA 9.9% 10.2% 9.0% 7.8% 5.9% 5.1% 4.6% 4.8% 6.1% 5.3% 4.9% 5.0% 5.1% 5.5% 6.2% 6.0% 6.4% 6.9% 4.7% 4.3% 4.28%
ROIC 22.0% 22.1% 21.1% 17.6% 14.4% 13.5% 13.2% 12.2% 15.9% 15.6% 12.3% 10.8% 12.6% 13.1% 16.2% 14.8% 15.7% 18.0% 13.7% 10.6% 10.64%
ROCE 14.9% 15.3% 13.4% 11.9% 6.0% 4.8% 4.2% 4.4% 9.4% 8.7% 8.1% 8.1% 8.5% 9.3% 10.2% 9.8% 10.8% 11.2% 8.2% 7.2% 7.19%
Gross Margin 33.9% 37.6% 36.3% 30.7% 44.6% 33.6% 37.7% 37.4% 37.8% 34.2% 36.1% 30.6% 33.7% 31.1% 39.6% 26.8% 31.2% 34.6% 33.9% 32.8% 32.82%
Operating Margin 13.9% 18.7% 19.5% 14.2% 1.3% 16.0% 17.1% 15.8% 9.9% 9.6% 11.0% 10.9% 10.5% 9.7% 19.6% 9.7% 9.0% 17.1% 5.8% 1.5% 1.48%
Net Margin 16.1% 24.1% 20.0% 17.1% 1.4% 15.9% 16.1% 14.4% 13.8% 9.3% 13.9% 10.2% 12.6% 12.6% 19.7% 6.9% 13.2% 15.8% 5.9% 2.1% 2.13%
EBITDA Margin 26.0% 31.3% 25.3% 23.6% -22.9% 21.7% 20.3% 20.2% 19.7% 12.2% 12.9% 12.8% 14.8% 11.3% 22.3% 8.1% 18.1% 19.9% 8.1% 5.5% 5.54%
FCF Margin 15.8% 16.7% 23.7% 22.8% 33.2% 28.8% 20.4% 16.3% 10.3% 9.4% 7.7% 2.5% 3.5% 0.1% -2.6% -0.3% -2.3% 0.3% 7.2% 5.1% 5.06%
OCF Margin 17.6% 18.5% 25.8% 24.7% 34.8% 31.0% 22.6% 18.8% 13.4% 12.6% 11.5% 6.5% 7.4% 4.7% 2.6% 5.5% 3.0% 6.2% 11.9% 8.7% 8.70%
ROE 3Y Avg snapshot only 7.12%
ROE 5Y Avg snapshot only 7.64%
ROA 3Y Avg snapshot only 4.99%
ROIC 3Y Avg snapshot only 14.05%
ROIC Economic snapshot only 4.70%
Cash ROA snapshot only 3.94%
Cash ROIC snapshot only 12.55%
CROIC snapshot only 7.30%
NOPAT Margin snapshot only 7.37%
Pretax Margin snapshot only 10.47%
R&D / Revenue snapshot only 10.12%
SGA / Revenue snapshot only 16.10%
SBC / Revenue snapshot only 0.10%
Valuation
Metric Trend Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Q2'23 Q3'23 Q4'23 Q1'24 Q2'24 Q3'24 Current
P/E Ratio 8.83 6.87 8.19 7.32 9.77 9.18 12.99 10.68 9.85 14.97 10.36 11.75 10.99 11.73 9.39 10.33 10.22 10.53 19.76 21.18 15.184
P/S Ratio 1.94 1.57 1.66 1.42 1.54 1.27 1.64 1.32 1.49 2.02 1.33 1.41 1.29 1.46 1.35 1.41 1.41 1.53 2.05 1.95 2.114
P/B Ratio 1.17 0.94 0.98 0.77 0.79 0.62 0.81 0.68 0.78 1.08 0.71 0.79 0.78 0.95 0.86 0.88 0.93 1.03 1.32 1.30 1.383
P/FCF 12.27 9.43 7.03 6.22 4.64 4.39 8.03 8.06 14.45 21.46 17.34 57.01 36.79 2641.34 -51.33 -521.39 -61.61 451.03 28.32 38.62 38.625
P/OCF 11.00 8.49 6.45 5.73 4.43 4.09 7.27 6.99 11.15 16.12 11.59 21.73 17.40 31.44 51.30 25.61 47.15 24.47 17.26 22.48 22.476
EV/EBITDA 3.96 2.42 2.63 1.49 2.58 0.25 3.54 2.08 1.59 4.62 1.22 2.77 2.59 4.61 3.11 3.93 3.94 4.30 8.60 8.93 8.927
EV/Revenue 1.14 0.73 0.72 0.40 0.36 0.03 0.38 0.22 0.32 0.84 0.19 0.40 0.34 0.60 0.50 0.59 0.62 0.76 1.16 1.14 1.142
EV/EBIT 4.52 2.76 3.03 1.76 2.96 0.29 4.23 2.46 1.74 5.00 1.21 2.67 2.41 4.03 3.01 3.59 3.69 4.31 8.68 9.99 9.987
EV/FCF 7.23 4.37 3.04 1.75 1.10 0.10 1.86 1.36 3.15 8.88 2.48 16.01 9.74 1081.00 -18.93 -217.32 -27.23 224.85 16.00 22.57 22.569
Earnings Yield 11.3% 14.6% 12.2% 13.7% 10.2% 10.9% 7.7% 9.4% 10.2% 6.7% 9.6% 8.5% 9.1% 8.5% 10.6% 9.7% 9.8% 9.5% 5.1% 4.7% 4.72%
FCF Yield 8.2% 10.6% 14.2% 16.1% 21.5% 22.8% 12.5% 12.4% 6.9% 4.7% 5.8% 1.8% 2.7% 0.0% -1.9% -0.2% -1.6% 0.2% 3.5% 2.6% 2.59%
Price/Tangible Book snapshot only 1.340
EV/OCF snapshot only 13.133
EV/Gross Profit snapshot only 3.443
Acquirers Multiple snapshot only 13.654
Shareholder Yield snapshot only 0.00%
Graham Number snapshot only $23.14
Leverage & Solvency
Metric Trend Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Q2'23 Q3'23 Q4'23 Q1'24 Q2'24 Q3'24 Current
Current Ratio 3.27 3.39 3.44 3.61 3.59 3.35 3.12 3.23 3.28 2.96 2.89 3.13 3.02 3.02 3.06 3.28 3.03 3.01 2.90 3.02 3.022
Quick Ratio 3.14 3.25 3.34 3.45 3.44 3.20 3.04 3.11 3.17 2.76 2.76 2.94 2.83 2.79 2.83 3.01 2.79 2.78 2.65 2.74 2.742
Debt/Equity 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.055
Net Debt/Equity -0.48 -0.50 -0.55 -0.55 -0.60 -0.61 -0.62 -0.56 -0.61 -0.63 -0.61 -0.57 -0.58 -0.56 -0.54 -0.51 -0.52 -0.52 -0.57 -0.54 -0.540
Debt/Assets 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.038
Debt/EBITDA 0.14 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.31 0.37 0.41 0.37 0.18 0.19 0.21 0.20 0.21 0.20 0.19 0.31 0.29 0.45 0.62 0.65 0.653
Net Debt/EBITDA -2.76 -2.80 -3.44 -3.82 -8.31 -10.38 -11.77 -10.22 -5.70 -6.55 -7.30 -7.10 -7.19 -6.65 -5.33 -5.50 -4.97 -4.32 -6.62 -6.35 -6.351
Interest Coverage 251.39 252.70 362.97 354.64 202.75 155.68 103.45 85.20 199.72 136.07 156.96 141.84 137.29 202.81 170.47 164.47 149.32 135.74 86.20 55.22 55.218
Equity Multiplier 1.38 1.38 1.38 1.35 1.38 1.41 1.44 1.41 1.40 1.45 1.46 1.41 1.43 1.45 1.44 1.41 1.43 1.47 1.49 1.46 1.464
Cash Ratio snapshot only 1.459
Debt Service Coverage snapshot only 61.774
Cash to Debt snapshot only 10.726
FCF to Debt snapshot only 0.606
Defensive Interval snapshot only 2476.2 days
Efficiency & Turnover
Metric Trend Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Q2'23 Q3'23 Q4'23 Q1'24 Q2'24 Q3'24 Current
Asset Turnover 0.45 0.45 0.44 0.41 0.38 0.37 0.37 0.39 0.40 0.40 0.38 0.42 0.43 0.44 0.43 0.44 0.46 0.48 0.45 0.46 0.463
Inventory Turnover 7.11 8.41 10.25 7.27 6.86 6.24 9.38 7.16 7.81 5.12 7.86 6.52 6.73 4.84 5.59 4.92 5.14 4.94 4.41 4.24 4.239
Receivables Turnover 1.08 1.10 1.08 1.02 0.97 1.00 0.96 1.06 1.11 1.13 1.04 1.13 1.19 1.25 1.20 1.21 1.27 1.31 1.27 1.29 1.292
Payables Turnover 2.99 3.02 3.15 2.99 2.75 2.70 2.63 2.80 2.91 2.72 2.54 2.87 2.98 3.10 2.81 2.96 3.03 3.26 3.09 3.21 3.206
DSO 339 330 339 357 377 366 381 344 328 323 351 324 306 293 304 301 287 279 288 282 282.5 days
DIO 51 43 36 50 53 58 39 51 47 71 46 56 54 75 65 74 71 74 83 86 86.1 days
DPO 122 121 116 122 133 135 139 130 125 134 144 127 122 118 130 123 120 112 118 114 113.8 days
Cash Conversion Cycle 269 253 258 285 297 289 281 265 249 260 254 252 238 251 240 251 238 240 253 255 254.7 days
Fixed Asset Turnover snapshot only 4.945
Operating Cycle snapshot only 368.6 days
Cash Velocity snapshot only 1.116
Capital Intensity snapshot only 2.205
Growth (YoY)
Metric Trend Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Q2'23 Q3'23 Q4'23 Q1'24 Q2'24 Q3'24 Current
Revenue 5.5% -1.6% 3.5% -5.3% -11.7% -8.2% -7.1% 6.2% 17.9% 21.2% 19.4% 21.3% 19.2% 17.3% 17.9% 11.8% 9.9% 11.5% 6.4% 6.9% 6.86%
Net Income 16.9% 11.7% -3.8% -19.5% -36.6% -44.7% -42.2% -32.3% 13.0% 18.7% 21.6% 18.0% -7.3% 8.3% 32.1% 27.0% 28.6% 29.7% -23.4% -27.7% -27.65%
EPS 16.9% 13.2% -2.7% -18.5% -35.8% -44.8% -42.6% -32.4% 12.9% 16.7% 20.1% 15.9% -9.2% 7.6% 31.4% 26.0% 27.8% 29.2% -23.8% -28.0% -28.00%
FCF -24.9% -23.0% 25.1% -3.3% 85.2% 58.7% -19.8% -23.9% -63.4% -60.4% -55.1% -81.6% -59.3% -99.3% -1.4% -1.1% -1.7% 5.8% 3.9% 21.0% 21.02%
EBITDA 27.2% 19.7% 4.8% -11.1% -56.7% -63.7% -63.7% -57.3% 70.2% 84.3% 74.5% 61.9% -22.8% -15.9% 20.7% 16.8% 31.1% 52.2% -10.6% -8.5% -8.49%
Op. Income 2.8% -8.5% -15.9% -33.0% -43.8% -42.5% -37.7% -18.2% 25.7% 20.9% 6.1% -3.0% -14.6% -5.9% 40.6% 40.4% 31.8% 51.9% -18.5% -31.5% -31.52%
OCF Growth snapshot only 69.01%
Asset Growth snapshot only 4.48%
Equity Growth snapshot only 0.88%
Debt Growth snapshot only 90.35%
Shares Change snapshot only 0.48%
Dividend Growth snapshot only -1.00%
Growth (CAGR)
Metric Trend Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Q2'23 Q3'23 Q4'23 Q1'24 Q2'24 Q3'24 Current
Revenue 3Y 1.6% 2.0% 7.0% 6.3% 5.2% 4.7% 2.1% 2.0% 3.1% 3.1% 4.7% 6.9% 7.4% 9.3% 9.4% 12.9% 15.6% 16.6% 14.4% 13.2% 13.15%
Revenue 5Y 1.8% 0.2% 1.8% -0.6% -1.1% -0.2% -0.1% 0.9% 1.7% 3.4% 6.4% 9.1% 10.4% 10.3% 8.4% 7.5% 7.5% 7.4% 7.6% 7.8% 7.82%
EPS 3Y 1.5% 5.3% 10.6% 8.8% 5.3% 1.2% -10.5% -11.4% -5.4% -10.0% -12.5% -13.9% -13.0% -11.5% -3.2% -0.4% 9.4% 17.5% 6.3% 1.7% 1.68%
EPS 5Y 11.6% 10.0% 8.0% 0.2% -3.8% -6.7% -10.0% -7.7% -5.4% -5.5% -1.4% 0.2% 3.7% 5.4% 2.5% 0.3% -0.3% 0.3% -7.6% -10.3% -10.34%
Net Income 3Y 1.9% 5.0% 10.4% 8.4% 4.8% 0.8% -10.7% -11.7% -5.8% -9.8% -12.3% -13.7% -12.8% -10.8% -2.5% 0.4% 10.4% 18.6% 7.1% 2.7% 2.72%
Net Income 5Y 12.4% 10.6% 8.5% 0.7% -3.8% -6.8% -9.9% -7.7% -5.4% -5.4% -1.1% 0.3% 3.8% 5.6% 2.7% 0.6% -0.0% 0.6% -7.3% -10.0% -10.00%
EBITDA 3Y 8.8% 13.8% 23.7% 21.3% -3.1% -10.9% -20.9% -21.7% -2.1% -7.1% -12.8% -15.0% -17.1% -17.5% -8.5% -6.9% 19.9% 33.1% 23.5% 20.1% 20.06%
EBITDA 5Y 8.3% 6.5% 5.7% 0.5% -13.3% -15.1% -18.1% -15.2% -1.0% -0.3% 3.7% 4.3% 3.6% 1.8% 0.8% -1.9% -1.1% 0.5% -6.4% -8.1% -8.07%
Gross Profit 3Y 0.9% 3.2% 10.8% 8.5% 10.7% 7.3% 2.4% 2.3% 2.0% 1.8% 3.2% 3.3% 4.3% 5.2% 7.1% 11.2% 10.3% 13.1% 8.6% 7.9% 7.87%
Gross Profit 5Y 3.8% 1.7% 2.1% -2.4% -2.3% -2.2% -2.1% 1.0% 1.2% 3.9% 8.4% 10.3% 11.2% 9.5% 6.9% 4.9% 4.4% 4.8% 4.0% 4.6% 4.65%
Op. Income 3Y 0.8% 3.0% 12.0% 6.9% 4.8% 0.3% -11.5% -12.0% -10.1% -14.0% -17.8% -19.0% -15.5% -13.2% -2.4% 3.7% 12.3% 20.0% 6.7% -2.3% -2.30%
Op. Income 5Y 4.9% 1.2% 0.8% -6.1% -11.8% -11.7% -14.2% -10.6% -6.3% -5.4% -1.5% -0.6% 4.3% 2.8% 0.7% -1.5% -4.0% -1.9% -8.6% -12.6% -12.57%
FCF 3Y 32.4% 21.6% 47.9% 35.9% 37.3% 21.0% 9.8% -2.6% -20.1% -21.5% -23.3% -48.7% -34.9% -83.7% — — — -73.5% -19.0% -23.4% -23.45%
FCF 5Y 4.0% 7.5% 15.4% 22.9% 17.7% 12.7% 1.2% -2.7% 9.5% 2.5% 3.1% -18.9% -17.4% -65.6% — — — -53.1% -11.9% -19.9% -19.88%
OCF 3Y 29.1% 21.3% 46.6% 36.8% 39.0% 23.6% 13.1% 1.7% -13.5% -14.2% -13.0% -30.4% -19.4% -31.1% -48.9% -31.6% -49.0% -31.6% -7.6% -12.6% -12.56%
OCF 5Y 4.1% 7.4% 15.7% 22.2% 17.1% 12.6% 1.9% -1.3% 11.2% 6.1% 9.3% -2.9% -4.2% -16.6% -25.0% -16.1% -28.3% -16.3% -3.2% -11.6% -11.63%
Assets 3Y 9.2% 8.1% 11.1% 9.9% 8.7% 9.4% 10.0% 7.5% 9.6% 11.3% 11.8% 10.0% 8.5% 8.2% 8.2% 9.3% 7.4% 6.7% 5.6% 5.1% 5.11%
Assets 5Y 7.2% 5.2% 7.0% 6.4% 6.7% 8.7% 10.0% 9.5% 9.7% 10.5% 12.4% 11.7% 9.5% 7.9% 7.7% 6.7% 6.8% 7.8% 7.9% 6.7% 6.71%
Equity 3Y 11.9% 10.8% 13.7% 12.3% 10.8% 11.1% 10.4% 8.6% 10.6% 10.7% 10.3% 9.2% 7.2% 6.4% 6.5% 7.6% 6.1% 5.1% 4.6% 3.8% 3.81%
Book Value 3Y 11.6% 11.1% 13.9% 12.7% 11.3% 11.5% 10.6% 9.0% 11.0% 10.5% 10.0% 9.0% 6.9% 5.5% 5.7% 6.7% 5.1% 4.2% 3.8% 2.8% 2.76%
Dividend 3Y — — — — — — -1.4% -1.2% -0.8% 6.1% -36.2% -36.2% 22.8% 8.2% 82.9% 82.8% — — — — —
Growth Quality
Metric Trend Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Q2'23 Q3'23 Q4'23 Q1'24 Q2'24 Q3'24 Current
Revenue Stability 0.05 0.01 0.33 0.03 0.03 0.08 0.11 0.21 0.07 0.26 0.72 0.81 0.79 0.83 0.76 0.76 0.74 0.71 0.80 0.87 0.870
Earnings Stability 0.33 0.36 0.46 0.15 0.00 0.01 0.08 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.08 0.08 0.00 0.01 0.06 0.17 0.13 0.04 0.24 0.36 0.357
Margin Stability 0.93 0.95 0.95 0.93 0.92 0.94 0.95 0.96 0.98 0.98 0.95 0.93 0.94 0.95 0.97 0.94 0.93 0.94 0.93 0.93 0.928
Rev. Growth Consistency 1.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000
Earn. Growth Consistency 1.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.50 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.000
FCF Positive Streak 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
Earnings Persistence 0.93 0.95 0.98 0.92 0.85 0.82 0.83 0.87 0.95 0.93 0.91 0.93 0.97 0.97 0.87 0.89 0.89 0.88 0.91 0.89 0.889
Earnings Smoothness 0.84 0.89 0.96 0.78 0.55 0.42 0.46 0.61 0.88 0.83 0.81 0.83 0.92 0.92 0.72 0.76 0.75 0.74 0.73 0.68 0.679
ROE Trend 0.02 0.02 -0.01 -0.02 -0.05 -0.07 -0.07 -0.06 -0.03 -0.03 -0.02 -0.02 -0.01 0.01 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 -0.01 -0.01 -0.015
Gross Margin Trend 0.02 0.01 -0.01 -0.03 0.00 -0.01 0.00 0.01 -0.01 -0.00 -0.01 -0.02 -0.03 -0.04 -0.02 -0.03 -0.02 -0.01 -0.03 -0.01 -0.010
FCF Margin Trend -0.03 -0.03 0.06 0.02 0.14 0.10 -0.01 -0.06 -0.14 -0.13 -0.14 -0.17 -0.18 -0.19 -0.17 -0.10 -0.09 -0.04 0.05 0.04 0.040
Sustainable Growth Rate 14.0% 14.3% 11.1% 9.4% 6.9% 5.9% 5.4% 5.5% 7.3% 6.2% 6.9% 6.8% 5.2% 6.2% 7.4% 6.9% 9.1% 10.1% 6.8% 6.2% 6.16%
Internal Growth Rate 11.0% 11.3% 8.7% 7.4% 5.3% 4.4% 3.9% 4.2% 5.5% 4.6% 5.0% 5.0% 3.8% 4.5% 5.4% 5.1% 6.8% 7.4% 4.9% 4.5% 4.47%
Cash Flow Quality
Metric Trend Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Q2'23 Q3'23 Q4'23 Q1'24 Q2'24 Q3'24 Current
OCF/Net Income 0.80 0.81 1.27 1.28 2.21 2.25 1.79 1.53 0.88 0.93 0.89 0.54 0.63 0.37 0.18 0.40 0.22 0.43 1.15 0.94 0.942
FCF/OCF 0.90 0.90 0.92 0.92 0.95 0.93 0.91 0.87 0.77 0.75 0.67 0.38 0.47 0.01 -1.00 -0.05 -0.77 0.05 0.61 0.58 0.582
FCF/Net Income snapshot only 0.548
OCF/EBITDA snapshot only 0.680
CapEx/Revenue 1.8% 1.9% 2.1% 1.9% 1.6% 2.2% 2.1% 2.5% 3.1% 3.1% 3.8% 4.0% 3.9% 4.6% 5.3% 5.8% 5.3% 5.9% 4.6% 3.6% 3.64%
CapEx/Depreciation snapshot only 2.689
Accruals Ratio 0.02 0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.07 -0.06 -0.04 -0.03 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.05 0.04 0.05 0.04 -0.01 0.00 0.002
Sloan Accruals snapshot only -0.006
Cash Flow Adequacy snapshot only 2.392
Earnings Quality Score snapshot only 0.750
Dividends & Buybacks
Metric Trend Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Q2'23 Q3'23 Q4'23 Q1'24 Q2'24 Q3'24 Current
Dividend Yield 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% 1.7% 1.6% 2.0% 1.4% 1.6% 1.4% 1.2% 0.4% 0.3% 2.5% 1.9% 1.9% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.00%
Dividend/Share $0.00 $0.00 $0.21 $0.21 $0.21 $0.21 $0.20 $0.20 $0.20 $0.25 $0.05 $0.05 $0.37 $0.32 $0.32 $0.32 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Payout Ratio 0.0% 0.0% 10.9% 12.4% 16.0% 18.1% 17.9% 17.4% 13.6% 18.3% 3.9% 3.9% 27.5% 22.0% 18.3% 19.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.00%
FCF Payout Ratio 0.0% 0.0% 9.3% 10.5% 7.6% 8.7% 11.1% 13.1% 20.0% 26.2% 6.4% 18.7% 91.9% 49.4% — — — 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.00%
Total Payout Ratio 0.0% 0.0% 10.9% 12.4% 16.0% 18.1% 17.9% 17.4% 13.6% 18.3% 3.9% 3.9% 27.5% 22.0% 18.3% 19.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.00%
Div. Increase Streak — — 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 — — — — —
Chowder Number — — — — — — -0.03 -0.03 -0.02 0.21 -0.73 -0.74 0.89 0.32 5.29 5.28 — — — — —
Buyback Yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.00%
Net Buyback Yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.0% -0.0% -0.0% -0.0% -0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.00%
Total Shareholder Return 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% 1.7% 1.6% 2.0% 1.4% 1.6% 1.4% 1.2% 0.4% 0.3% 2.5% 1.9% 1.9% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.00%
DuPont Factors
Metric Trend Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Q2'23 Q3'23 Q4'23 Q1'24 Q2'24 Q3'24 Current
Tax Burden (NI/EBT) 0.87 0.87 0.86 0.86 0.81 0.81 0.81 0.80 0.81 0.81 0.82 0.81 0.83 0.84 0.88 0.88 0.90 0.90 0.88 0.88 0.881
Interest Burden (EBT/EBIT) 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.57 1.69 1.74 1.69 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.95 0.90 0.91 0.88 0.92 0.916
EBIT Margin 0.25 0.26 0.24 0.23 0.12 0.10 0.09 0.09 0.19 0.17 0.16 0.15 0.14 0.15 0.17 0.16 0.17 0.18 0.13 0.11 0.114
Asset Turnover 0.45 0.45 0.44 0.41 0.38 0.37 0.37 0.39 0.40 0.40 0.38 0.42 0.43 0.44 0.43 0.44 0.46 0.48 0.45 0.46 0.463
Equity Multiplier 1.41 1.40 1.39 1.37 1.38 1.39 1.41 1.38 1.39 1.43 1.45 1.41 1.42 1.45 1.45 1.41 1.43 1.46 1.47 1.44 1.439
Per Share
Metric Trend Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Q2'23 Q3'23 Q4'23 Q1'24 Q2'24 Q3'24 Current
EPS (Diluted TTM) $2.04 $2.10 $1.93 $1.70 $1.31 $1.16 $1.11 $1.15 $1.48 $1.35 $1.33 $1.33 $1.35 $1.46 $1.75 $1.68 $1.72 $1.88 $1.33 $1.21 $1.21
Book Value/Share $15.43 $15.35 $16.22 $16.14 $16.28 $17.05 $17.83 $18.16 $18.80 $18.75 $19.53 $19.92 $18.86 $18.04 $19.14 $19.63 $18.91 $19.29 $19.94 $19.70 $19.12
Tangible Book/Share $14.53 $14.46 $15.31 $15.27 $15.97 $16.73 $17.50 $17.83 $18.47 $18.40 $18.68 $19.17 $18.15 $17.38 $18.47 $18.96 $18.29 $18.67 $19.31 $19.08 $19.08
Revenue/Share $9.31 $9.17 $9.50 $8.77 $8.32 $8.42 $8.78 $9.31 $9.81 $10.02 $10.35 $11.10 $11.45 $11.69 $12.14 $12.31 $12.51 $12.98 $12.86 $13.09 $12.64
FCF/Share $1.47 $1.53 $2.25 $2.00 $2.76 $2.42 $1.79 $1.52 $1.01 $0.94 $0.80 $0.27 $0.40 $0.01 $-0.32 $-0.03 $-0.29 $0.04 $0.93 $0.66 $-0.29
OCF/Share $1.64 $1.70 $2.45 $2.17 $2.90 $2.61 $1.98 $1.76 $1.31 $1.26 $1.19 $0.72 $0.85 $0.54 $0.32 $0.68 $0.37 $0.81 $1.53 $1.14 $0.38
Cash/Share $7.79 $7.87 $9.09 $9.04 $10.15 $10.77 $11.45 $10.56 $11.78 $12.24 $12.16 $11.58 $11.20 $10.41 $10.74 $10.68 $10.38 $10.97 $12.54 $11.73 $10.48
EBITDA/Share $2.68 $2.76 $2.61 $2.34 $1.18 $1.00 $0.94 $1.00 $2.00 $1.82 $1.62 $1.59 $1.51 $1.52 $1.95 $1.84 $1.97 $2.30 $1.73 $1.67 $1.67
Debt/Share $0.38 $0.13 $0.12 $0.10 $0.36 $0.37 $0.38 $0.37 $0.36 $0.35 $0.34 $0.32 $0.32 $0.31 $0.37 $0.58 $0.56 $1.02 $1.08 $1.09 $1.09
Net Debt/Share $-7.42 $-7.74 $-8.97 $-8.94 $-9.78 $-10.40 $-11.07 $-10.19 $-11.42 $-11.89 $-11.83 $-11.26 $-10.88 $-10.10 $-10.37 $-10.11 $-9.81 $-9.95 $-11.46 $-10.63 $-10.63
Academic Models
Metric Trend Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Q2'23 Q3'23 Q4'23 Q1'24 Q2'24 Q3'24 Current
Altman Z-Score — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — 3.760
Altman Z-Prime snapshot only 8.798
Piotroski F-Score 6 7 7 6 7 3 4 4 5 6 5 5 4 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4
Beneish M-Score -2.21 -2.41 -2.62 -2.51 -3.11 -2.73 -2.56 -2.39 -2.36 -2.30 -2.42 -2.16 -2.24 -2.35 -2.33 -2.24 -2.12 -2.14 -2.36 -2.60 -2.601
Ohlson O-Score snapshot only -9.108
ROIC (Greenblatt) snapshot only 7.92%
Net-Net WC snapshot only $15.14
EVA snapshot only $3615587.19
Credit
Metric Trend Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Q2'23 Q3'23 Q4'23 Q1'24 Q2'24 Q3'24 Current
Credit Rating snapshot only AA+
Credit Score 97.07 92.48 91.85 92.33 88.63 83.04 82.48 82.28 87.85 87.59 82.82 88.20 88.71 86.10 85.95 84.64 84.87 85.41 91.39 91.22 91.224
Credit Grade snapshot only 2
Credit Trend snapshot only 6.581
Implied Spread (bps) snapshot only 65.000
Industry Credit Rank snapshot only 81
Sector Credit Rank snapshot only 86

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