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HZNP NASDAQ

Horizon Therapeutics Public Limited Company
1W: +0.3% 1M: +0.8% 3M: +12.9% 1Y: +71.3% 3Y: +45.2% 5Y: +513.7%
$116.30
Last traded 2023-10-09 — delisted
NASDAQ · Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - General · $26.6B mcap

Edge Score

Quantitative competitive moat analysis scoring five pillars of durable advantage — cost leadership, brand intangibles, switching costs, network effects, and efficient scale — using industry percentile rankings on a 0–100 scale.

WEAK EDGE
52.0 / 100
NoneWeakNarrowWide
Primary source: Switching Costs  ·  ROIC: 9.4%  ·  5Y Avg: 15.3%
Cost Advantage
24
Intangibles
63
Switching Cost
68
Network Effect
39
Scale
57
The Edge Score quantifies a company's competitive moat using five pillars: Cost Advantage (20%, operating margin and SG&A efficiency vs industry peers), Intangible Assets (25%, gross margin premium, R&D intensity, brand pricing power), Switching Costs (25%, revenue stability, earnings consistency, customer retention proxied by operating leverage), Network Effects (15%, revenue growth with expanding margins, market share dominance), and Efficient Scale (15%, market concentration, ROIC sustainability). Each pillar is scored 0–100 using industry percentile rankings, then weighted into a composite. Wide ≥ 70, Narrow ≥ 55, Weak ≥ 40, None < 40. HZNP shows a Weak competitive edge (52.0/100) — limited structural advantages that may face competitive pressure. The primary source of advantage is Switching Costs. ROIC of 9.4% suggests modest returns relative to capital deployed.

Analyst Insights

Wall Street analyst consensus based on price targets and buy/sell/hold recommendations from institutional research coverage over the trailing 12 months.

Analyst Price Targets
Analyst Recommendations
Strong Buy: 0Buy: 15Hold: 10Sell: 0Strong Sell: 0
Rating Summary
ConsensusBuy
Avg Target$—
Analysts0
Price Target Change History
DateFirmAnalystOldNewChangeUpside @ CallStock@Call
2022-12-13 Guggenheim — Initiated $116 — +3.7% $112.36
2022-12-13 Leerink Partners — Initiated $116 — +3.7% $112.36
2022-12-13 Wells Fargo — Initiated $116 — +3.7% $112.36
2022-12-07 Piper Sandler — Initiated $110 — +13.6% $96.85
2022-08-03 Stifel Nicolaus Annabel Samimy Initiated $138 — +112.5% $64.95
2022-07-05 UBS Ashwani Verma $139 $137 -2 +69.5% $80.84
2022-06-13 UBS Ashwani Verma Initiated $139 — +70.3% $81.60
2022-03-16 Oppenheimer Leland Gershell Initiated $140 — +31.6% $106.39
2021-10-25 Bank of America Securities Jason Gerberry Initiated $144 — +24.1% $116.01
2021-10-05 Jefferies Akash Tewari Initiated $132 — +16.7% $113.11
2021-08-04 Citigroup Navann Ty Initiated $121 — +13.8% $106.37

InsiderStreet Scorecard

Proprietary multi-factor scorecard rating companies across seven fundamental dimensions — profitability, balance sheet strength, earnings quality, growth, value, momentum, and safety — each scored 0–100.

★ ★ ★ ★ ★ 51 Grade A
Profitability
51
Balance Sheet
83
Earnings Quality
67
Growth
18
Value
36
Momentum
52
Safety
100
Cash Flow
62
The InsiderStreet Scorecard rates companies across eight dimensions: Profitability (margins, ROA, ROE), Balance Sheet (leverage, liquidity, coverage), Earnings Quality (accruals, cash conversion), Growth (revenue and earnings trajectory), Value (P/E, P/B, earnings yield, Graham criteria), Momentum (revenue and earnings acceleration), Safety (Altman Z-Score risk adjustment), and Cash Flow (operating cash flow quality, FCF conversion, cash coverage). The overall score blends 35% quality, 35% value, and 30% momentum, with a penalty for distress-zone Altman scores. HZNP scores highest in Safety (100/100) and lowest in Growth (18/100). An overall grade of A places HZNP among the highest-quality companies in its peer group.

Risk & Quality Signals

Academic financial models used by institutional investors to assess bankruptcy risk, earnings manipulation, financial strength, and credit quality.

Altman Z-Score
4.70
Safe Zone
Piotroski F-Score
7/9
✓ ✓ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✗
Beneish M-Score
-2.77
Unlikely Manipulator
Ohlson O-Score
-8.97
Bankruptcy prob: 0.0%
Low Risk
Credit Rating
AA-
Score: 84.5/100
Trend: Deteriorating
Earnings Quality
75/100
OCF/NI: 2.38x
Accruals: -6.6%
The Altman Z-Score (1968) combines five ratios — working capital, retained earnings, EBIT, market value of equity, and sales, all relative to total assets or liabilities — into a single bankruptcy predictor. HZNP scores 4.70, placing it in the Safe Zone (safe > 2.99, distress < 1.81). Bankruptcy is statistically unlikely within the next two years. The Piotroski F-Score (2000) is a 9-point binary checklist — four profitability tests (positive ROA, positive cash flow, improving ROA, cash flow exceeding net income), three leverage tests (declining debt ratio, improving current ratio, no share dilution), and two efficiency tests (improving gross margin, improving asset turnover). Each pass scores 1 point. HZNP scores 7/9, signaling strong financial health across all three dimensions. The Beneish M-Score (1999) is an 8-variable model that detects earnings manipulation by comparing year-over-year changes in receivables, gross margins, asset quality, sales growth, depreciation, SG&A, leverage, and accruals. Scores above −1.78 statistically resemble past manipulators. HZNP's score of -2.77 falls below this threshold, suggesting earnings are unlikely to be manipulated. The Ohlson O-Score (1980) is a 9-variable logistic regression that estimates bankruptcy probability using firm size, leverage, working capital, current ratio, profitability (ROA), cash flow coverage, negative equity flag, consecutive losses flag, and earnings trajectory. The raw score is converted to a probability via logistic transformation. HZNP's implied 0.0% bankruptcy probability is well within safe territory. Our Credit Rating model scores companies on five weighted components — solvency (30%), earning power (25%), leverage (20%), liquidity (15%), and cash flow quality (10%) — then blends the absolute score with sector and industry peer rankings. For companies with large buyback programs, equity is adjusted by adding back cumulative 5-year repurchases (capped at 80% of FCF generated) to avoid penalizing shareholder-friendly capital allocation. HZNP receives an estimated rating of AA- (score: 84.5/100), with a deteriorating trend. The Earnings Quality score measures how well reported earnings are backed by real cash. It evaluates the operating cash flow to net income ratio (OCF/NI ≥ 1.0 means every dollar of earnings is cash-backed) and the accruals ratio (the gap between earnings and cash flow relative to assets — lower is better). HZNP's score of 75/100 is high — cash flows strongly support reported earnings.

Valuation

Key valuation multiples comparing the stock's market price to its earnings, revenue, book value, and cash flows. Lower multiples may indicate relative undervaluation versus peers.

P/E
51.01x
PEG
-1.20x
P/S
7.33x
P/B
5.25x
P/FCF
26.55x
P/OCF
23.12x
EV/EBITDA
25.21x
EV/Revenue
6.63x
EV/EBIT
47.12x
EV/FCF
26.66x
Earnings Yield
1.82%
FCF Yield
3.77%
Shareholder Yield
1.04%
Graham Number
$30.93
Equity-based multiples (P/E, P/B, P/FCF) compare the stock price to per-share fundamentals and are affected by capital structure. Enterprise value multiples (EV/EBITDA, EV/Revenue, EV/FCF) strip out debt and cash, making them more useful for cross-company comparisons regardless of how companies are financed. The Graham Number — √(22.5 × EPS × Book Value) — is Benjamin Graham's formula for the maximum price a defensive investor should pay. At 51.0x earnings, HZNP is priced for high growth expectations. Graham's intrinsic value formula yields $30.93 per share, 276% below the current price.

DuPont Decomposition (5-Factor)

The 5-factor DuPont framework breaks Return on Equity into its component drivers — tax efficiency, interest burden, operating profitability, asset utilization, and financial leverage — to reveal what truly drives shareholder returns.

Tax Burden
0.987
NI / EBT
×
Interest Burden
0.866
EBT / EBIT
×
EBIT Margin
0.141
EBIT / Rev
×
Asset Turnover
0.402
Rev / Assets
×
Equity Multiplier
1.770
Assets / Equity
=
ROE
8.5%
The 5-factor DuPont identity decomposes ROE as: Tax Burden × Interest Burden × EBIT Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier = ROE. This reveals whether returns are driven by operating performance, financial leverage, or tax efficiency — three very different sources of profitability. HZNP's ROE of 8.5% is driven by Asset Turnover (0.402), indicating efficient use of assets to generate revenue. A tax burden ratio of 0.99 indicates minimal tax leakage — the company retains over 90% of pre-tax earnings.

Graham-Dodd Adjusted Valuation

Our adaptation of Graham's growth formula (Fair P/E = 8.5 + 2g) from The Intelligent Investor. The classic version relies on analyst growth projections, which can be unreliable. This adjusted model substitutes the company's realized 3-year EPS CAGR — a backward-looking, verifiable measure of actual earnings power — grounding the valuation in demonstrated performance rather than forecasts.

Two adjustments we make, and why. Growth is capped at 15%. Graham defined g as expected growth over the next seven to ten years, not last year's rate. Across US companies since 1994 the median realized 7-year EPS growth is 5–8% regardless of how fast a company grew beforehand, and of 4,457 company-quarters that grew faster than 200%, none sustained it. Uncapped, the formula assigned fair multiples in the hundreds to companies that had never held that rate — and scored worse than simply reading the P/E. Capped, it carries real information. The verdict has three states, not two. Tested over 377,249 stock-months, this ratio only separates outcomes at its extremes: below 0.25 beat the universe by 1.3 points a year, above 3.0 lagged by 2.7, and everything in between sat inside a one-point band. Rather than call two-thirds of the market "undervalued" on a threshold of 1.0, we say Neutral where the model cannot tell — which is most of the time.

Adj. Growth Rate
0.00%
Fair P/E
8.50x
Intrinsic Value
$15.91
Price/Value
6.46x
Margin of Safety
-546.26%
Premium
546.26%
Assessment
Overvalued
Graham's classic formula uses analyst-projected growth to estimate a fair P/E (8.5 + 2g). Our adjusted version replaces that projection with HZNP's realized 0.0% 3-year EPS CAGR, capped at 15% — demonstrated performance rather than forecasts, held to a rate companies have historically sustained. HZNP trades at a 546% premium to its adjusted intrinsic value of $15.91, suggesting the market is pricing in future growth beyond what historical earnings support. The adjusted fair P/E of 8.5x compares to the current market P/E of 51.0x.

Profitability Trends

Historical profitability ratios tracking how efficiently the company converts revenue into returns for shareholders over time.

Leverage & Solvency Trends

Debt and liquidity metrics showing the company's financial leverage and ability to meet short-term and long-term obligations.

Efficiency & Working Capital Trends

Operating efficiency metrics measuring how quickly the company converts inventory to sales, collects receivables, and manages its cash conversion cycle.

Growth Trends (YoY %)

Year-over-year growth rates for key financial metrics, showing the trajectory of revenue, earnings, and cash flow generation.

Earnings Stability

R-squared of linear regression measuring how predictably revenue, earnings, and margins follow a trend over the trailing 5 years. 1.0 = perfectly predictable; lower values indicate erratic or cyclical behavior.

Monte Carlo Price Simulation

Geometric Brownian Motion with 1,000 antithetic paths over 1 year, seeded from 1800 days of historical volatility. Percentile bands show the range of statistically plausible outcomes — this is a statistical model, not a forecast.

Current Price
$116.30
Median 1Y
$130.78
5th Pctile
$59.05
95th Pctile
$290.90
Ann. Volatility
46.7%
25th–75th percentile 5th–95th percentile Median path Historical
All Ratios & Metrics

Complete fundamental data with up to 20 periods of history, sparkline trends, and current values across 13 categories and 130+ financial metrics.

Profitability
Metric Trend Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Q2'23 Current
ROE -22.0% -7.5% 4.0% 6.4% 5.5% 35.4% 32.1% 26.7% 29.6% 12.6% 9.3% 16.1% 13.4% 12.3% 19.9% 17.0% 12.1% 10.7% 7.5% 8.5% 8.54%
ROA -5.1% -1.8% 1.2% 2.0% 1.8% 13.4% 14.4% 12.5% 16.7% 7.4% 4.6% 8.1% 7.7% 7.2% 10.4% 9.0% 6.5% 5.9% 4.2% 4.8% 4.83%
ROIC -5.8% 0.0% 2.1% 27.6% 5.6% 4.1% 3.2% 3.5% 37.6% 16.1% 6.6% 10.6% 10.6% 11.1% 16.8% 16.2% 13.1% 12.6% 9.6% 9.4% 9.37%
ROCE -3.5% 0.9% 4.0% 4.2% 2.7% 1.8% 1.6% 1.9% 5.5% 8.9% 4.7% 6.1% 7.3% 7.2% 11.3% 11.1% 8.9% 8.1% 6.2% 6.1% 6.12%
Gross Margin 69.6% 69.2% 68.6% 72.2% 73.2% 73.9% 72.6% 73.7% 76.2% 78.2% 70.7% 75.9% 75.7% 76.2% 75.7% 73.7% 74.7% 74.4% 74.9% 76.7% 76.72%
Operating Margin 16.7% 20.0% -0.6% 7.8% 14.5% 15.0% -4.6% 8.2% 35.9% 32.2% -46.7% 16.6% 32.0% 23.0% 22.0% 16.2% 17.4% 18.5% 4.3% 15.1% 15.12%
Net Margin 8.0% 24.6% -11.7% -1.6% 5.4% 1.6% -3.8% -17.3% 46.0% 25.6% -36.0% 19.0% 31.5% 17.1% 23.1% 7.0% 14.7% 12.8% 6.6% 13.4% 13.45%
EBITDA Margin 34.8% 33.8% 18.4% 22.2% 20.1% 31.3% 14.2% 20.6% 44.7% 41.7% -21.5% 27.6% 41.0% 32.5% 32.6% 27.1% 29.9% 32.9% 15.4% 25.8% 25.78%
FCF Margin 19.2% 14.7% 24.2% 25.8% 25.4% 31.4% 12.5% 12.2% 10.8% 16.2% 23.6% 19.3% 24.8% 28.2% 29.4% 33.3% 34.3% 31.2% 28.0% 24.9% 24.86%
OCF Margin 20.3% 16.1% 24.6% 26.6% 26.6% 32.8% 22.4% 20.8% 18.5% 25.3% 28.1% 23.6% 30.7% 32.1% 33.3% 37.1% 37.0% 34.7% 31.6% 28.6% 28.55%
ROE 3Y Avg snapshot only 12.14%
ROE 5Y Avg snapshot only 12.66%
ROA 3Y Avg snapshot only 6.55%
ROIC 3Y Avg snapshot only 12.99%
ROIC Economic snapshot only 6.50%
Cash ROA snapshot only 11.19%
Cash ROIC snapshot only 19.26%
CROIC snapshot only 16.77%
NOPAT Margin snapshot only 13.90%
Pretax Margin snapshot only 12.18%
R&D / Revenue snapshot only 14.15%
SGA / Revenue snapshot only 45.48%
SBC / Revenue snapshot only 5.71%
Valuation
Metric Trend Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Q2'23 Current
P/E Ratio -16.04 -42.50 95.36 58.98 77.97 12.62 9.51 20.70 21.94 44.14 73.60 42.50 46.88 47.77 28.80 24.62 25.37 50.85 68.61 54.93 51.009
P/S Ratio 3.00 2.70 3.61 3.48 4.09 5.56 4.09 7.06 9.56 7.82 9.42 8.61 8.75 7.91 6.59 4.94 3.94 7.31 7.14 6.60 7.331
P/B Ratio 3.68 3.09 3.04 2.93 3.40 3.31 2.57 4.53 4.58 4.27 5.35 5.41 5.81 5.46 5.15 3.81 2.89 5.23 5.01 4.53 5.253
P/FCF 15.65 18.31 14.95 13.51 16.10 17.70 32.63 57.92 88.08 48.35 39.99 44.74 35.26 28.09 22.41 14.82 11.46 23.43 25.46 26.55 26.553
P/OCF 14.74 16.73 14.66 13.08 15.39 16.96 18.30 33.90 51.54 30.96 33.54 36.44 28.54 24.66 19.78 13.32 10.63 21.08 22.61 23.12 23.121
EV/EBITDA 28.07 14.77 14.42 13.89 18.49 24.69 20.55 34.13 30.63 21.77 36.25 31.62 30.68 29.12 20.20 15.24 13.26 24.03 27.04 25.21 25.209
EV/Revenue 3.95 3.47 4.06 3.86 4.44 5.77 4.52 7.35 9.16 7.33 10.22 9.29 9.26 8.22 6.82 5.12 4.05 7.36 7.20 6.63 6.627
EV/EBIT -38.47 136.97 42.71 38.06 68.82 112.25 105.72 163.24 60.76 34.97 67.26 52.92 48.43 47.59 28.72 21.74 20.70 40.23 50.94 47.12 47.124
EV/FCF 20.62 23.58 16.79 14.99 17.47 18.37 36.05 60.31 84.42 45.33 43.38 48.28 37.31 29.18 23.22 15.35 11.81 23.62 25.68 26.66 26.655
Earnings Yield -6.2% -2.4% 1.0% 1.7% 1.3% 7.9% 10.5% 4.8% 4.6% 2.3% 1.4% 2.4% 2.1% 2.1% 3.5% 4.1% 3.9% 2.0% 1.5% 1.8% 1.82%
FCF Yield 6.4% 5.5% 6.7% 7.4% 6.2% 5.7% 3.1% 1.7% 1.1% 2.1% 2.5% 2.2% 2.8% 3.6% 4.5% 6.7% 8.7% 4.3% 3.9% 3.8% 3.77%
Price/Tangible Book snapshot only 23.968
EV/OCF snapshot only 23.210
EV/Gross Profit snapshot only 8.812
Acquirers Multiple snapshot only 47.048
Shareholder Yield snapshot only 1.04%
Graham Number snapshot only $30.93
Leverage & Solvency
Metric Trend Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Q2'23 Current
Current Ratio 1.94 2.03 1.74 2.20 2.33 2.33 2.39 1.51 3.49 3.51 2.37 2.55 2.83 3.16 3.57 4.05 3.96 3.85 4.07 4.27 4.274
Quick Ratio 1.85 1.97 1.68 2.12 2.23 2.26 2.27 1.45 3.39 3.42 2.06 2.25 2.55 2.90 3.30 3.79 3.74 3.67 3.89 4.09 4.088
Debt/Equity 2.06 1.80 1.07 0.90 0.87 0.62 0.62 0.50 0.26 0.25 0.67 0.63 0.58 0.55 0.53 0.52 0.51 0.51 0.50 0.48 0.482
Net Debt/Equity 1.17 0.89 0.38 0.32 0.29 0.13 0.27 0.19 -0.19 -0.27 0.45 0.43 0.34 0.21 0.19 0.14 0.09 0.04 0.04 0.02 0.017
Debt/Assets 0.47 0.46 0.41 0.37 0.36 0.30 0.31 0.26 0.17 0.17 0.33 0.31 0.30 0.30 0.29 0.29 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.275
Debt/EBITDA 11.92 6.68 4.52 3.84 4.34 4.45 4.49 3.60 1.84 1.35 4.18 3.43 2.88 2.82 2.02 2.00 2.27 2.30 2.69 2.67 2.669
Net Debt/EBITDA 6.78 3.30 1.59 1.37 1.46 0.91 1.95 1.36 -1.33 -1.45 2.83 2.32 1.69 1.09 0.70 0.53 0.38 0.19 0.23 0.10 0.097
Interest Coverage -0.94 0.25 1.01 1.18 0.84 0.77 0.77 0.93 4.21 7.74 5.96 7.52 8.01 6.88 10.08 10.23 8.31 7.94 6.48 7.46 7.463
Equity Multiplier 4.38 3.93 2.62 2.44 2.39 2.03 1.97 1.92 1.52 1.51 2.04 2.01 1.93 1.86 1.81 1.79 1.79 1.80 1.76 1.75 1.751
Cash Ratio snapshot only 2.686
Debt Service Coverage snapshot only 13.950
Cash to Debt snapshot only 0.964
FCF to Debt snapshot only 0.354
Defensive Interval snapshot only 534.4 days
Efficiency & Turnover
Metric Trend Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Q2'23 Current
Asset Turnover 0.28 0.29 0.32 0.33 0.33 0.30 0.33 0.37 0.38 0.42 0.36 0.40 0.41 0.44 0.45 0.45 0.42 0.41 0.40 0.40 0.402
Inventory Turnover 5.87 7.56 7.17 6.89 6.26 6.93 6.08 6.72 6.73 8.25 3.50 3.79 4.55 5.28 3.91 4.06 4.31 4.66 4.67 4.83 4.831
Receivables Turnover 2.88 2.90 3.13 3.21 3.28 2.98 3.32 3.23 3.30 4.12 5.04 4.00 3.99 4.99 6.68 5.41 5.21 5.54 5.44 5.24 5.241
Payables Turnover 9.56 13.07 10.21 10.46 8.22 13.98 8.58 5.43 14.13 17.99 11.51 7.79 15.95 23.42 16.53 26.63 22.23 9.90 12.72 17.36 17.360
DSO 127 126 117 114 111 123 110 113 111 89 72 91 91 73 55 67 70 66 67 70 69.6 days
DIO 62 48 51 53 58 53 60 54 54 44 104 96 80 69 93 90 85 78 78 76 75.6 days
DPO 38 28 36 35 44 26 43 67 26 20 32 47 23 16 22 14 16 37 29 21 21.0 days
Cash Conversion Cycle 151 146 132 132 125 149 128 100 139 113 145 141 149 127 126 144 138 107 117 124 124.2 days
Fixed Asset Turnover snapshot only 10.058
Operating Cycle snapshot only 145.2 days
Cash Velocity snapshot only 1.479
Capital Intensity snapshot only 2.552
Growth (YoY)
Metric Trend Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Q2'23 Current
Revenue 3.1% 14.3% 19.3% 19.5% 14.7% 7.7% 8.8% 18.4% 40.8% 69.3% 59.0% 68.5% 62.6% 46.6% 72.4% 49.1% 25.2% 12.5% -5.1% -4.4% -4.42%
Net Income 57.4% 81.3% 1.1% 1.3% 1.3% 8.5% 11.4% 5.8% 10.7% -32.0% -52.7% 0.1% -30.3% 37.1% 2.1% 47.6% 4.1% -2.4% -56.9% -42.7% -42.74%
EPS 59.7% 81.6% 1.1% 1.2% 1.3% 7.2% 10.2% 5.6% 9.1% -42.2% -59.9% -17.9% -34.0% 36.1% 1.9% 47.0% 4.4% -0.8% -56.5% -42.2% -42.20%
FCF -20.4% -35.6% 66.9% 66.7% 52.2% 1.3% -43.5% -44.0% -39.9% -12.9% 2.0% 1.7% 2.7% 1.6% 1.1% 1.6% 73.2% 24.5% -9.5% -28.7% -28.73%
EBITDA 2.6% 3.6% 4.8% 3.0% 95.8% 7.1% -14.9% -8.3% 75.2% 1.4% 1.0% 1.3% 64.1% 23.0% 1.1% 70.4% 26.8% 22.1% -25.2% -25.2% -25.18%
Op. Income 67.1% 1.0% 1.3% 1.7% 2.0% 63304.5% -10.8% -16.2% 1.1% 2.9% 2.1% 2.6% 80.6% 10.8% 1.6% 1.0% 32.8% 23.6% -42.9% -43.0% -43.04%
OCF Growth snapshot only -26.43%
Asset Growth snapshot only 5.03%
Equity Growth snapshot only 7.39%
Debt Growth snapshot only -0.37%
Shares Change snapshot only -0.94%
Growth (CAGR)
Metric Trend Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Q2'23 Current
Revenue 3Y 22.3% 16.8% 14.2% 11.2% 12.2% 9.8% 11.3% 13.8% 18.5% 27.7% 27.3% 33.6% 38.0% 38.8% 43.9% 43.8% 42.0% 40.8% 37.5% 33.9% 33.91%
Revenue 5Y 83.3% 74.8% 61.0% 49.7% 42.6% 34.4% 30.9% 26.7% 24.2% 23.8% 20.8% 22.3% 26.4% 26.9% 30.5% 29.9% 27.6% 28.0% 27.5% 27.7% 27.71%
EPS 3Y — — 48.0% — — — — — — — — — — — 1.4% 99.5% 91.2% -8.0% -20.1% -11.3% -11.32%
EPS 5Y — — — — — — — — — 46.6% 71.0% — — — — — — — — — —
Net Income 3Y — — 51.8% — — — — — — — — — — — 1.6% 1.2% 1.0% -3.1% -14.4% -5.4% -5.40%
Net Income 5Y — — — — — — — — — 58.0% 82.9% — — — — — — — — — —
EBITDA 3Y 33.6% 25.7% 30.1% 8.6% 11.1% 27.3% 49.8% — — — — 1.0% 77.9% 47.5% 53.0% 53.2% 53.9% 54.1% 46.5% 43.1% 43.12%
EBITDA 5Y — — — — — — — — 52.2% 39.0% 30.7% 22.0% 31.6% 44.0% 69.8% — — — — 60.5% 60.48%
Gross Profit 3Y 15.2% 13.4% 14.3% 11.5% 14.8% 16.8% 22.8% 28.5% 35.2% 48.4% 45.5% 49.6% 50.4% 45.9% 48.8% 47.5% 44.8% 42.4% 38.4% 35.0% 35.01%
Gross Profit 5Y 77.5% 67.5% 54.4% 46.8% 39.7% 33.9% 31.2% 27.7% 25.7% 25.4% 23.2% 24.6% 30.0% 32.8% 39.5% 40.5% 38.4% 39.7% 37.8% 36.5% 36.45%
Op. Income 3Y — -96.7% 75.0% 19.1% 89.7% — — — — — — — — 63.8% 92.7% 82.3% 72.1% 74.4% 66.1% 60.3% 60.29%
Op. Income 5Y — — — — — — — — 63.2% 54.7% 71.4% 38.4% 92.2% — — — — — — — —
FCF 3Y 50.7% -1.7% -0.0% 2.4% -1.9% 4.9% -19.1% -17.6% -10.0% 8.9% 41.2% 35.5% 50.4% 72.3% 53.6% 56.7% 57.0% 40.4% 79.7% 69.8% 69.85%
FCF 5Y — — — — 1.4% 76.2% — — 25.6% 13.7% 11.0% 9.9% 16.1% 20.8% 27.7% 30.9% 36.2% 32.6% 40.5% 35.5% 35.54%
OCF 3Y 49.0% 0.1% -0.8% 1.6% -2.0% 4.9% -2.9% -2.1% 6.9% 25.6% 45.7% 41.7% 58.2% 74.6% 59.1% 60.7% 58.6% 43.4% 54.2% 48.8% 48.79%
OCF 5Y — — — — 1.2% 73.0% — — 37.2% 23.4% 14.0% 13.2% 19.9% 22.9% 30.2% 33.3% 37.8% 35.0% 41.5% 37.4% 37.40%
Assets 3Y 10.3% 10.6% 7.1% 4.7% 3.6% 1.1% -0.5% 2.9% 11.4% 13.4% 25.2% 27.2% 28.9% 27.9% 30.5% 33.7% 34.4% 27.1% 27.7% 27.0% 27.01%
Assets 5Y 91.0% 75.0% 67.4% 62.4% 27.0% 31.3% 23.1% 9.1% 14.0% 14.6% 19.6% 20.5% 20.8% 15.1% 14.8% 16.3% 16.7% 17.0% 17.6% 18.4% 18.44%
Equity 3Y -10.0% -7.1% 5.2% 4.4% 4.5% 20.0% 22.0% 31.9% 56.0% 59.5% 64.8% 67.9% 69.3% 64.3% 47.4% 48.2% 47.9% 32.4% 32.5% 31.0% 31.01%
Book Value 3Y -11.0% -8.0% 2.5% 0.2% -1.8% 11.8% 15.6% 24.7% 40.5% 41.5% 48.7% 49.4% 52.5% 46.1% 32.9% 36.7% 38.7% 25.8% 23.7% 22.8% 22.81%
Dividend 3Y — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — —
Growth Quality
Metric Trend Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Q2'23 Current
Revenue Stability 0.95 0.93 0.92 0.89 0.91 0.91 0.94 0.97 0.91 0.78 0.79 0.73 0.76 0.77 0.73 0.79 0.85 0.90 0.84 0.88 0.884
Earnings Stability 0.10 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.05 0.31 0.23 0.24 0.32 0.40 0.38 0.61 0.60 0.72 0.77 0.95 0.78 0.69 0.54 0.65 0.647
Margin Stability 0.87 0.82 0.79 0.83 0.83 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.85 0.88 0.90 0.90 0.87 0.85 0.84 0.83 0.84 0.87 0.867
Rev. Growth Consistency 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.000
Earn. Growth Consistency 0.50 0.50 0.50 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.50 0.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000
FCF Positive Streak 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Earnings Persistence 0.50 0.50 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 1.00 0.88 0.85 0.50 0.81 0.98 0.99 0.50 0.83 0.829
Earnings Smoothness — — — — — — 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.62 0.28 1.00 0.64 0.69 0.00 0.62 0.96 0.98 0.21 0.46 0.456
ROE Trend 0.02 0.20 0.40 0.44 0.41 0.51 0.53 0.37 0.30 0.00 -0.08 -0.01 -0.00 -0.07 0.01 -0.02 -0.05 -0.00 -0.05 -0.06 -0.058
Gross Margin Trend 0.00 0.11 0.16 0.17 0.16 0.16 0.13 0.11 0.10 0.07 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 -0.00 -0.005
FCF Margin Trend -0.12 -0.16 -0.01 0.00 0.03 0.11 -0.08 -0.10 -0.11 -0.07 0.05 0.00 0.07 0.04 0.11 0.18 0.17 0.09 0.02 -0.01 -0.014
Sustainable Growth Rate — — 4.0% 6.4% 5.5% 35.4% 32.1% 26.7% 29.6% 12.6% 9.3% 16.1% 13.4% 12.3% 19.9% 17.0% 12.1% 10.7% 7.5% 8.5% 8.54%
Internal Growth Rate — — 1.2% 2.0% 1.8% 15.4% 16.8% 14.3% 20.0% 8.0% 4.8% 8.9% 8.3% 7.8% 11.6% 9.9% 7.0% 6.2% 4.4% 5.1% 5.07%
Cash Flow Quality
Metric Trend Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Q2'23 Current
OCF/Net Income -1.09 -2.54 6.51 4.51 5.07 0.74 0.52 0.61 0.43 1.43 2.19 1.17 1.64 1.94 1.46 1.85 2.39 2.41 3.03 2.38 2.376
FCF/OCF 0.94 0.91 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.56 0.59 0.59 0.64 0.84 0.81 0.81 0.88 0.88 0.90 0.93 0.90 0.89 0.87 0.871
FCF/Net Income snapshot only 2.069
OCF/EBITDA snapshot only 1.086
CapEx/Revenue 1.2% 1.4% 0.5% 0.8% 1.2% 1.4% 9.8% 8.6% 7.7% 9.1% 4.5% 4.4% 5.8% 3.9% 3.9% 3.8% 2.7% 3.5% 3.5% 3.7% 3.69%
CapEx/Depreciation snapshot only 0.305
Accruals Ratio -0.11 -0.07 -0.07 -0.07 -0.07 0.03 0.07 0.05 0.10 -0.03 -0.06 -0.01 -0.05 -0.07 -0.05 -0.08 -0.09 -0.08 -0.09 -0.07 -0.066
Sloan Accruals snapshot only 0.017
Cash Flow Adequacy snapshot only 7.736
Earnings Quality Score snapshot only 0.750
Dividends & Buybacks
Metric Trend Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Q2'23 Current
Dividend Yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.00%
Dividend/Share $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Payout Ratio — — 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.00%
FCF Payout Ratio 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.00%
Total Payout Ratio — — 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.4% 48.0% 67.2% 57.1% 57.10%
Div. Increase Streak — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — —
Chowder Number — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — —
Buyback Yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.9% 1.0% 1.0% 1.04%
Net Buyback Yield 0.0% 0.0% -7.2% -7.3% -6.2% -4.5% -0.0% 0.0% -5.3% -5.3% -4.5% -4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.1% 0.5% 0.8% 0.8% 0.9% 0.89%
Total Shareholder Return 0.0% 0.0% -7.2% -7.3% -6.2% -4.5% -0.0% 0.0% -5.3% -5.3% -4.5% -4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.1% 0.5% 0.8% 0.8% 0.9% 0.89%
DuPont Factors
Metric Trend Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Q2'23 Current
Tax Burden (NI/EBT) 0.78 0.63 34.80 3.73 -4.14 -28.33 -32.80 -101.27 3.79 0.97 1.06 1.38 1.15 1.15 1.07 1.01 0.98 0.99 1.00 0.99 0.987
Interest Burden (EBT/EBIT) 2.33 -3.97 0.01 0.16 -0.20 -0.30 -0.31 -0.07 0.76 0.87 0.79 0.84 0.85 0.83 0.90 0.84 0.81 0.79 0.74 0.87 0.866
EBIT Margin -0.10 0.03 0.10 0.10 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.05 0.15 0.21 0.15 0.18 0.19 0.17 0.24 0.24 0.20 0.18 0.14 0.14 0.141
Asset Turnover 0.28 0.29 0.32 0.33 0.33 0.30 0.33 0.37 0.38 0.42 0.36 0.40 0.41 0.44 0.45 0.45 0.42 0.41 0.40 0.40 0.402
Equity Multiplier 4.27 4.06 3.36 3.23 3.13 2.65 2.23 2.12 1.77 1.69 2.01 1.98 1.74 1.70 1.91 1.89 1.86 1.83 1.79 1.77 1.770
Per Share
Metric Trend Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Q2'23 Current
EPS (Diluted TTM) $-1.22 $-0.46 $0.28 $0.41 $0.35 $2.87 $3.12 $2.68 $3.54 $1.66 $1.25 $2.20 $2.34 $2.26 $3.65 $3.24 $2.44 $2.24 $1.59 $1.87 $1.87
Book Value/Share $5.32 $6.33 $8.70 $8.21 $8.01 $10.94 $11.51 $12.26 $16.97 $17.11 $17.21 $17.32 $18.84 $19.72 $20.42 $20.94 $21.38 $21.77 $21.80 $22.70 $22.14
Tangible Book/Share $-9.97 $-8.99 $-4.64 $-3.84 $-3.19 $0.35 $0.13 $0.30 $6.86 $7.78 $-5.86 $-4.23 $-2.33 $-0.99 $-0.00 $1.16 $1.93 $2.52 $2.99 $4.29 $4.29
Revenue/Share $6.53 $7.25 $7.32 $6.92 $6.65 $6.51 $7.24 $7.88 $8.13 $9.36 $9.77 $10.87 $12.52 $13.62 $15.97 $16.15 $15.73 $15.57 $15.30 $15.58 $15.84
FCF/Share $1.25 $1.07 $1.77 $1.78 $1.69 $2.05 $0.91 $0.96 $0.88 $1.51 $2.30 $2.09 $3.11 $3.84 $4.69 $5.38 $5.40 $4.86 $4.29 $3.87 $4.94
OCF/Share $1.33 $1.17 $1.80 $1.84 $1.77 $2.13 $1.62 $1.64 $1.51 $2.36 $2.74 $2.57 $3.84 $4.37 $5.32 $5.99 $5.82 $5.40 $4.83 $4.45 $5.49
Cash/Share $4.73 $5.76 $6.04 $4.74 $4.61 $5.39 $4.04 $3.80 $7.71 $8.84 $3.72 $3.56 $4.52 $6.67 $7.08 $8.01 $9.05 $10.10 $10.01 $10.54 $10.27
EBITDA/Share $0.92 $1.70 $2.06 $1.92 $1.60 $1.52 $1.59 $1.70 $2.43 $3.15 $2.75 $3.20 $3.78 $3.84 $5.40 $5.42 $4.81 $4.77 $4.07 $4.10 $4.10
Debt/Share $10.96 $11.39 $9.31 $7.37 $6.94 $6.77 $7.15 $6.11 $4.48 $4.27 $11.52 $10.95 $10.90 $10.85 $10.89 $10.87 $10.90 $11.00 $10.95 $10.93 $10.93
Net Debt/Share $6.23 $5.63 $3.27 $2.64 $2.33 $1.38 $3.11 $2.30 $-3.23 $-4.58 $7.79 $7.40 $6.37 $4.18 $3.80 $2.86 $1.85 $0.90 $0.94 $0.40 $0.40
Academic Models
Metric Trend Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Q2'23 Current
Altman Z-Score — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — 4.698
Altman Z-Prime snapshot only 9.096
Piotroski F-Score 6 6 8 8 8 7 7 6 7 7 4 6 4 5 8 7 8 7 6 7 7
Beneish M-Score -3.11 -2.74 -2.94 -2.92 -2.91 -2.46 -2.08 -1.84 -1.29 -1.86 -2.48 -1.85 -2.14 -2.44 -1.61 -2.93 -3.13 -2.81 -3.03 -2.77 -2.774
Ohlson O-Score snapshot only -8.968
ROIC (Greenblatt) snapshot only 15.22%
Net-Net WC snapshot only $-0.28
EVA snapshot only $-33786387.85
Credit
Metric Trend Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Q2'23 Current
Credit Rating snapshot only AA-
Credit Score 18.70 24.09 33.30 39.33 35.81 42.66 40.94 49.69 77.21 84.64 68.97 73.19 80.01 78.61 85.29 85.62 76.17 83.66 82.10 84.48 84.478
Credit Grade snapshot only 4
Credit Trend snapshot only -1.142
Implied Spread (bps) snapshot only 100.000
Industry Credit Rank snapshot only 67
Sector Credit Rank snapshot only 82

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