— Know what they know.
Not Investment Advice
Also trades as: KIE.L (LSE) · $vol 5M

KIERF OTC

Kier Group plc
1W: -10.1% 1M: +48.7% 3M: +48.7% YTD: +48.7% 1Y: +48.7% 3Y: +170.9% 5Y: +217.1%
$4.08
+0.00 (+0.00%)
 
OTC · Industrials · Engineering & Construction · Tech Score Buy · Power 75 · $1.8B mcap · 410M float · 0.0001% daily turnover · Short 100% of daily vol

Analyst Insights

Wall Street analyst consensus based on price targets and buy/sell/hold recommendations from institutional research coverage over the trailing 12 months.

Analyst Price Targets
Analyst Recommendations
Strong Buy: 0Buy: 1Hold: 0Sell: 0Strong Sell: 0
Rating Summary
ConsensusBuy
Avg Target$—
Analysts0

Financial Rating

Composite financial health rating (A+ to F) based on discounted cash flow valuation, return on equity, return on assets, debt-to-equity leverage, and relative P/E and P/B multiples.

B+
Oct 02, 2026
DCF
4
ROE
4
ROA
4
D/E
1
P/E
3
P/B
3
The Financial Rating evaluates six fundamental factors — discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation, return on equity (ROE), return on assets (ROA), debt-to-equity leverage (D/E), and relative price-to-earnings (P/E) and price-to-book (P/B) multiples — each scored 1–5. KIERF receives an overall rating of B+. Strongest factors: DCF (4/5), ROE (4/5), ROA (4/5). Areas of concern: D/E (1/5).
Rating Change History
DateFromTo
2026-10-03 None ADDED
2026-10-03 EXISTED None
2026-09-29 None ADDED
2026-09-27 EXISTED None
2026-09-16 B+ B
2026-09-15 None ADDED
2026-09-13 EXISTED None
2026-09-09 None ADDED
2026-09-05 EXISTED None
2026-08-31 None ADDED

InsiderStreet Scorecard

Proprietary multi-factor scorecard rating companies across seven fundamental dimensions — profitability, balance sheet strength, earnings quality, growth, value, momentum, and safety — each scored 0–100.

★ ★ ★ ★ ★ — Grade D
Profitability
25
Balance Sheet
49
Earnings Quality
79
Growth
75
Value
—
Momentum
98
Safety
—
Cash Flow
61

Risk & Quality Signals

Academic financial models used by institutional investors to assess bankruptcy risk, earnings manipulation, financial strength, and credit quality.

Altman Z-Score
—
—
Piotroski F-Score
6/9
✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✗
Beneish M-Score
-2.59
Unlikely Manipulator
Ohlson O-Score
-5.31
Bankruptcy prob: 0.5%
Low Risk
Credit Rating
BB
Score: 43.5/100
Trend: Stable
Earnings Quality
75/100
OCF/NI: 3.12x
Accruals: -7.2%
The Piotroski F-Score (2000) is a 9-point binary checklist — four profitability tests (positive ROA, positive cash flow, improving ROA, cash flow exceeding net income), three leverage tests (declining debt ratio, improving current ratio, no share dilution), and two efficiency tests (improving gross margin, improving asset turnover). Each pass scores 1 point. KIERF scores 6/9, indicating moderate financial health — some areas of strength offset by weaknesses in others. The Beneish M-Score (1999) is an 8-variable model that detects earnings manipulation by comparing year-over-year changes in receivables, gross margins, asset quality, sales growth, depreciation, SG&A, leverage, and accruals. Scores above −1.78 statistically resemble past manipulators. KIERF's score of -2.59 falls below this threshold, suggesting earnings are unlikely to be manipulated. The Ohlson O-Score (1980) is a 9-variable logistic regression that estimates bankruptcy probability using firm size, leverage, working capital, current ratio, profitability (ROA), cash flow coverage, negative equity flag, consecutive losses flag, and earnings trajectory. The raw score is converted to a probability via logistic transformation. KIERF's implied 0.5% bankruptcy probability is well within safe territory. Our Credit Rating model scores companies on five weighted components — solvency (30%), earning power (25%), leverage (20%), liquidity (15%), and cash flow quality (10%) — then blends the absolute score with sector and industry peer rankings. For companies with large buyback programs, equity is adjusted by adding back cumulative 5-year repurchases (capped at 80% of FCF generated) to avoid penalizing shareholder-friendly capital allocation. KIERF receives an estimated rating of BB (score: 43.5/100), with a stable trend. The Earnings Quality score measures how well reported earnings are backed by real cash. It evaluates the operating cash flow to net income ratio (OCF/NI ≥ 1.0 means every dollar of earnings is cash-backed) and the accruals ratio (the gap between earnings and cash flow relative to assets — lower is better). KIERF's score of 75/100 is high — cash flows strongly support reported earnings.

Valuation

Key valuation multiples comparing the stock's market price to its earnings, revenue, book value, and cash flows. Lower multiples may indicate relative undervaluation versus peers.

P/E
22.27x
PEG
1.34x
P/S
0.31x
P/B
2.73x
P/FCF
—
P/OCF
—
EV/EBITDA
—
EV/Revenue
—
EV/EBIT
—
EV/FCF
—
Earnings Yield
—
FCF Yield
—
Shareholder Yield
—
Graham Number
$2.29
Equity-based multiples (P/E, P/B, P/FCF) compare the stock price to per-share fundamentals and are affected by capital structure. Enterprise value multiples (EV/EBITDA, EV/Revenue, EV/FCF) strip out debt and cash, making them more useful for cross-company comparisons regardless of how companies are financed. The Graham Number — √(22.5 × EPS × Book Value) — is Benjamin Graham's formula for the maximum price a defensive investor should pay. At 22.3x earnings, KIERF commands a growth premium. Graham's intrinsic value formula yields $2.29 per share, 78% below the current price.

DuPont Decomposition (5-Factor)

The 5-factor DuPont framework breaks Return on Equity into its component drivers — tax efficiency, interest burden, operating profitability, asset utilization, and financial leverage — to reveal what truly drives shareholder returns.

Tax Burden
0.678
NI / EBT
×
Interest Burden
0.662
EBT / EBIT
×
EBIT Margin
0.028
EBIT / Rev
×
Asset Turnover
2.725
Rev / Assets
×
Equity Multiplier
5.683
Assets / Equity
=
ROE
19.2%
The 5-factor DuPont identity decomposes ROE as: Tax Burden × Interest Burden × EBIT Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier = ROE. This reveals whether returns are driven by operating performance, financial leverage, or tax efficiency — three very different sources of profitability. KIERF's ROE of 19.2% is driven by financial leverage (equity multiplier: 5.68x). Note: high leverage means ROE is amplified by debt rather than operational performance.

Graham-Dodd Adjusted Valuation

Our adaptation of Graham's growth formula (Fair P/E = 8.5 + 2g) from The Intelligent Investor. The classic version relies on analyst growth projections, which can be unreliable. This adjusted model substitutes the company's realized 3-year EPS CAGR — a backward-looking, verifiable measure of actual earnings power — grounding the valuation in demonstrated performance rather than forecasts.

Two adjustments we make, and why. Growth is capped at 15%. Graham defined g as expected growth over the next seven to ten years, not last year's rate. Across US companies since 1994 the median realized 7-year EPS growth is 5–8% regardless of how fast a company grew beforehand, and of 4,457 company-quarters that grew faster than 200%, none sustained it. Uncapped, the formula assigned fair multiples in the hundreds to companies that had never held that rate — and scored worse than simply reading the P/E. Capped, it carries real information. The verdict has three states, not two. Tested over 377,249 stock-months, this ratio only separates outcomes at its extremes: below 0.25 beat the universe by 1.3 points a year, above 3.0 lagged by 2.7, and everything in between sat inside a one-point band. Rather than call two-thirds of the market "undervalued" on a threshold of 1.0, we say Neutral where the model cannot tell — which is most of the time.

Adj. Growth Rate
15.00%
Fair P/E
38.50x
Intrinsic Value
$8.15
Price/Value
—
Margin of Safety
—
Premium
—
Graham's classic formula uses analyst-projected growth to estimate a fair P/E (8.5 + 2g). Our adjusted version replaces that projection with KIERF's realized 15.0% 3-year EPS CAGR, capped at 15% — demonstrated performance rather than forecasts, held to a rate companies have historically sustained. KIERF trades at a premium to its adjusted intrinsic value of $8.15, suggesting the market is pricing in future growth beyond what historical earnings support. The adjusted fair P/E of 38.5x compares to the current market P/E of 22.3x.

Profitability Trends

Historical profitability ratios tracking how efficiently the company converts revenue into returns for shareholders over time.

Leverage & Solvency Trends

Debt and liquidity metrics showing the company's financial leverage and ability to meet short-term and long-term obligations.

Efficiency & Working Capital Trends

Operating efficiency metrics measuring how quickly the company converts inventory to sales, collects receivables, and manages its cash conversion cycle.

Growth Trends (YoY %)

Year-over-year growth rates for key financial metrics, showing the trajectory of revenue, earnings, and cash flow generation.

Earnings Stability

R-squared of linear regression measuring how predictably revenue, earnings, and margins follow a trend over the trailing 5 years. 1.0 = perfectly predictable; lower values indicate erratic or cyclical behavior.

Monte Carlo Price Simulation

Geometric Brownian Motion with 1,000 antithetic paths over 1 year, seeded from 1785 days of historical volatility. Percentile bands show the range of statistically plausible outcomes — this is a statistical model, not a forecast.

Current Price
$4.09
Median 1Y
$4.12
5th Pctile
$1.63
95th Pctile
$10.50
Ann. Volatility
54.3%
25th–75th percentile 5th–95th percentile Median path Historical
All Ratios & Metrics

Complete fundamental data with up to 20 periods of history, sparkline trends, and current values across 13 categories and 130+ financial metrics.

Profitability
Metric Trend Q4'19 Q2'20 Q4'20 Q2'21 Q4'21 Q2'22 Q4'22 Q2'23 Q4'23 Q2'24 Q4'24 Current
ROE -56.8% -40.4% -31.4% -26.3% 3.1% 8.0% 11.3% 13.2% 15.6% 17.1% 19.2% 19.23%
ROA -5.5% -5.7% -6.0% -5.8% 0.5% 1.4% 2.3% 3.0% 2.9% 3.2% 3.4% 3.38%
ROIC -10.3% -8.8% -7.0% -3.8% 20.5% 12.3% 5.7% 16.0% 26.0% 24.0% 34.4% 34.40%
ROCE -7.8% -6.3% -4.5% -2.6% 8.8% 8.4% 9.4% 11.1% 17.3% 19.5% 22.9% 22.94%
Gross Margin 5.9% 8.7% 8.7% 8.4% 8.4% 8.6% 9.5% 7.9% 9.2% 7.4% 8.8% 8.77%
Operating Margin -5.7% 1.3% 1.3% 1.4% 1.4% 2.2% 2.2% 2.4% 2.9% 2.3% 3.2% 3.23%
Net Margin -8.0% -0.0% -0.0% 0.4% 0.4% 1.3% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.0% 1.7% 1.71%
EBITDA Margin -3.0% 3.7% 3.7% 3.5% 3.5% 3.0% 2.1% 2.8% 6.8% 3.2% 3.7% 3.65%
FCF Margin -2.3% -0.6% -0.0% 0.4% 1.5% 0.0% 3.6% 3.3% 3.4% 3.8% 3.6% 3.64%
OCF Margin -2.1% -0.4% 0.2% 0.8% 1.9% 0.4% 3.9% 3.5% 3.5% 4.0% 3.9% 3.88%
ROE 3Y Avg snapshot only -0.59%
ROA 3Y Avg snapshot only -0.29%
ROIC 3Y Avg snapshot only 6.60%
ROIC Economic snapshot only 8.01%
Cash ROA snapshot only 8.72%
Cash ROIC snapshot only 66.69%
CROIC snapshot only 62.57%
NOPAT Margin snapshot only 2.00%
Pretax Margin snapshot only 1.83%
R&D / Revenue snapshot only 0.00%
SGA / Revenue snapshot only 5.45%
SBC / Revenue snapshot only 0.20%
Valuation
Metric Trend Q4'19 Q2'20 Q4'20 Q2'21 Q4'21 Q2'22 Q4'22 Q2'23 Q4'23 Q2'24 Q4'24 Current
P/E Ratio — — — — — — — — — — — 22.270
P/S Ratio — — — — — — — — — — — 0.309
P/B Ratio — — — — — — — — — — — 2.728
P/FCF — — — — — — — — — — — —
P/OCF — — — — — — — — — — — —
EV/EBITDA — — — — — — — — — — — —
EV/Revenue — — — — — — — — — — — —
EV/EBIT — — — — — — — — — — — —
EV/FCF — — — — — — — — — — — —
Earnings Yield — — — — — — — — — — — —
FCF Yield — — — — — — — — — — — —
PEG Ratio snapshot only 1.336
Graham Number snapshot only $2.29
Leverage & Solvency
Metric Trend Q4'19 Q2'20 Q4'20 Q2'21 Q4'21 Q2'22 Q4'22 Q2'23 Q4'23 Q2'24 Q4'24 Current
Current Ratio 0.93 0.87 0.81 0.79 0.77 0.90 0.82 0.80 0.88 0.85 0.88 0.879
Quick Ratio 0.88 0.82 0.77 0.74 0.72 0.82 0.76 0.73 0.85 0.81 0.85 0.854
Debt/Equity 3.84 2.20 1.29 1.04 0.84 1.35 2.95 0.95 3.03 2.49 3.16 3.163
Net Debt/Equity 2.12 1.01 0.39 0.34 0.29 0.69 2.21 0.32 0.01 0.19 -0.10 -0.102
Debt/Assets 0.37 0.31 0.25 0.23 0.21 0.30 0.66 0.22 0.45 0.41 0.46 0.461
Debt/EBITDA -18.30 81.79 8.21 4.18 2.04 3.06 7.87 2.58 5.75 4.27 4.97 4.969
Net Debt/EBITDA -10.11 37.45 2.49 1.36 0.72 1.57 5.90 0.86 0.02 0.33 -0.16 -0.161
Interest Coverage -5.67 -1.88 -0.80 -0.37 1.31 2.09 3.87 9.00 4.09 3.13 2.86 2.863
Equity Multiplier 10.36 7.05 5.23 4.56 4.03 4.56 4.49 4.27 6.66 6.05 6.87 6.867
Cash Ratio snapshot only 0.653
Debt Service Coverage snapshot only 4.266
Cash to Debt snapshot only 1.032
FCF to Debt snapshot only 0.178
Defensive Interval snapshot only 1795.9 days
Efficiency & Turnover
Metric Trend Q4'19 Q2'20 Q4'20 Q2'21 Q4'21 Q2'22 Q4'22 Q2'23 Q4'23 Q2'24 Q4'24 Current
Asset Turnover 0.69 1.40 2.18 2.90 2.71 2.75 2.85 3.05 2.56 2.97 2.73 2.725
Inventory Turnover 26.84 54.03 83.86 108.11 100.29 85.67 93.33 95.87 101.60 82.28 105.65 105.652
Receivables Turnover 10.48 22.37 10.51 46.73 18.89 35.40 13.94 21.61 22.58 35.08 16.24 16.240
Payables Turnover 24.07 30.13 33.05 35.29 43.43 28.53 40.87 38.66 23.65 21.13 31.56 31.563
DSO 35 16 35 8 19 10 26 17 16 10 22 22.5 days
DIO 14 7 4 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3.5 days
DPO 15 12 11 10 8 13 9 9 15 17 12 11.6 days
Cash Conversion Cycle 33 11 28 1 15 2 21 11 4 -2 14 14.4 days
Fixed Asset Turnover snapshot only 64.114
Operating Cycle snapshot only 25.9 days
Cash Velocity snapshot only 4.725
Capital Intensity snapshot only 0.445
Growth (YoY)
Metric Trend Q4'19 Q2'20 Q4'20 Q2'21 Q4'21 Q2'22 Q4'22 Q2'23 Q4'23 Q2'24 Q4'24 Current
Revenue — — — — 2.7% 88.5% 31.2% 4.1% 13.8% 22.7% 22.3% 22.34%
Net Income — — — — 1.1% 1.2% 1.4% 1.5% 5.8% 1.5% 84.2% 84.20%
EPS — — — — 1.0% 1.1% 1.2% 1.5% 5.8% 1.4% 75.5% 75.46%
FCF — — — — 3.4% 1.0% 116.5% 7.4% 1.6% 347.0% 22.7% 22.73%
EBITDA — — — — 5.5% 22.5% 1.8% 54.4% 20.2% 36.1% 71.1% 71.06%
Op. Income — — — — 1.9% 2.3% 3.2% 5.5% 99.9% 90.6% 81.4% 81.42%
OCF Growth snapshot only 20.24%
Asset Growth snapshot only 54.11%
Equity Growth snapshot only 0.76%
Debt Growth snapshot only 8.06%
Shares Change snapshot only 4.98%
Growth Quality
Metric Trend Q4'19 Q2'20 Q4'20 Q2'21 Q4'21 Q2'22 Q4'22 Q2'23 Q4'23 Q2'24 Q4'24 Current
Revenue Stability — — — — — — — — 0.87 0.96 1.00 1.000
Earnings Stability — — — — — — — — 0.96 0.91 0.89 0.888
Margin Stability — — — — — — — — 0.79 0.91 0.94 0.940
Rev. Growth Consistency 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000
Earn. Growth Consistency 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000
FCF Positive Streak 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0
Earnings Persistence — — — — — — — — 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.500
Earnings Smoothness — — — — — — — — 0.00 0.13 0.41 0.407
ROE Trend — — — — — — — — 0.43 0.34 0.30 0.296
Gross Margin Trend — — — — — — — — 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.001
FCF Margin Trend — — — — — — — — 0.04 0.04 0.02 0.018
Sustainable Growth Rate — — — — 3.1% 8.0% 11.3% 13.2% 15.2% 13.6% 14.2% 14.20%
Internal Growth Rate — — — — 0.5% 1.5% 2.4% 3.1% 3.0% 2.6% 2.6% 2.56%
Cash Flow Quality
Metric Trend Q4'19 Q2'20 Q4'20 Q2'21 Q4'21 Q2'22 Q4'22 Q2'23 Q4'23 Q2'24 Q4'24 Current
OCF/Net Income 0.26 0.09 -0.09 -0.38 9.84 0.77 4.79 3.54 3.08 3.68 3.12 3.124
FCF/OCF 1.12 1.78 -0.17 0.54 0.78 0.03 0.92 0.93 0.95 0.96 0.94 0.938
FCF/Net Income snapshot only 2.931
OCF/EBITDA snapshot only 0.940
CapEx/Revenue 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.24%
CapEx/Depreciation snapshot only 0.177
Accruals Ratio -0.04 -0.05 -0.07 -0.08 -0.05 0.00 -0.09 -0.08 -0.06 -0.09 -0.07 -0.072
Sloan Accruals snapshot only -0.066
Cash Flow Adequacy snapshot only 6.873
Earnings Quality Score snapshot only 0.750
Dividends & Buybacks
Metric Trend Q4'19 Q2'20 Q4'20 Q2'21 Q4'21 Q2'22 Q4'22 Q2'23 Q4'23 Q2'24 Q4'24 Current
Dividend Yield — — — — — — — — — — — 3.38%
Dividend/Share $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.04 $0.06 $0.10
Payout Ratio — — — — 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.2% 20.3% 26.2% 26.16%
FCF Payout Ratio — — — 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 5.8% 8.9% 8.92%
Total Payout Ratio — — — — 1.1% 76.4% 46.5% 33.0% 21.9% 34.7% 47.1% 47.07%
Div. Increase Streak — — — — — — — — 0 0 0 0
Chowder Number — — — — — — — — — — — —
Buyback Yield — — — — — — — — — — — —
Net Buyback Yield — — — — — — — — — — — —
Total Shareholder Return — — — — — — — — — — — —
DuPont Factors
Metric Trend Q4'19 Q2'20 Q4'20 Q2'21 Q4'21 Q2'22 Q4'22 Q2'23 Q4'23 Q2'24 Q4'24 Current
Tax Burden (NI/EBT) 1.21 1.25 1.28 1.32 0.58 0.75 0.79 0.77 0.70 0.68 0.68 0.678
Interest Burden (EBT/EBIT) 1.18 1.53 2.25 3.72 0.24 0.45 0.68 0.74 0.72 0.67 0.66 0.662
EBIT Margin -0.06 -0.02 -0.01 -0.00 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.028
Asset Turnover 0.69 1.40 2.18 2.90 2.71 2.75 2.85 3.05 2.56 2.97 2.73 2.725
Equity Multiplier 10.36 7.05 5.23 4.56 5.94 5.59 4.83 4.41 5.30 5.32 5.68 5.683
Per Share
Metric Trend Q4'19 Q2'20 Q4'20 Q2'21 Q4'21 Q2'22 Q4'22 Q2'23 Q4'23 Q2'24 Q4'24 Current
EPS (Diluted TTM) $-0.68 $-0.64 $-0.65 $-0.29 $0.03 $0.08 $0.12 $0.15 $0.19 $0.18 $0.21 $0.21
Book Value/Share $1.19 $1.59 $2.05 $1.09 $1.22 $1.10 $1.15 $1.17 $1.15 $1.07 $1.11 $1.13
Tangible Book/Share $-2.38 $-1.74 $-1.23 $-0.41 $-0.25 $-0.39 $-0.30 $-0.29 $-0.26 $-0.27 $-0.19 $-0.19
Revenue/Share $8.49 $15.74 $23.42 $14.38 $14.07 $14.41 $14.64 $15.44 $16.13 $16.66 $17.06 $9.61
FCF/Share $-0.20 $-0.10 $-0.01 $0.06 $0.21 $0.00 $0.53 $0.50 $0.55 $0.64 $0.62 $0.41
OCF/Share $-0.18 $-0.06 $0.06 $0.11 $0.27 $0.06 $0.58 $0.54 $0.57 $0.66 $0.66 $0.42
Cash/Share $2.05 $1.90 $1.85 $0.76 $0.66 $0.73 $0.85 $0.74 $3.48 $2.46 $3.61 $4.19
EBITDA/Share $-0.25 $0.04 $0.32 $0.27 $0.50 $0.49 $0.43 $0.43 $0.61 $0.63 $0.70 $0.70
Debt/Share $4.58 $3.51 $2.66 $1.13 $1.02 $1.50 $3.40 $1.11 $3.49 $2.67 $3.50 $3.50
Net Debt/Share $2.53 $1.61 $0.81 $0.37 $0.36 $0.77 $2.55 $0.37 $0.01 $0.21 $-0.11 $-0.11
Academic Models
Metric Trend Q4'19 Q2'20 Q4'20 Q2'21 Q4'21 Q2'22 Q4'22 Q2'23 Q4'23 Q2'24 Q4'24 Current
Altman Z-Score — — — — — — — — — — — —
Piotroski F-Score 2 2 3 3 7 6 7 8 7 5 6 6
Beneish M-Score — — — — -2.58 -3.42 -2.94 -2.75 -2.69 -2.47 -2.59 -2.592
Ohlson O-Score snapshot only -5.313
Net-Net WC snapshot only $-1.62
EVA snapshot only $113278346.32
Credit
Metric Trend Q4'19 Q2'20 Q4'20 Q2'21 Q4'21 Q2'22 Q4'22 Q2'23 Q4'23 Q2'24 Q4'24 Current
Credit Rating snapshot only BB
Credit Score 33.55 26.05 27.95 31.40 44.50 44.55 44.10 68.50 46.30 48.20 43.55 43.550
Credit Grade snapshot only 12
Credit Trend snapshot only -0.550
Implied Spread (bps) snapshot only 475.000

Sign in to InsiderStreet

You'll also get our free weekly newsletter with
smart money signals, market insights, and alpha ideas.
Unsubscribe anytime.

For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Data sourced from SEC filings. Privacy Terms