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NP NYSE

Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc.
1W: -0.2% 1M: -17.5% 3M: -17.8% YTD: -1.2% 1Y: +10.7%
$27.43
+0.19 (+0.70%)
 
Weekly Expected Move ±3.6%
$25 $26 $27 $28 $29
NYSE · Financial Services · Insurance - Brokers · Tech Score Sell · Power 38 · $2.6B mcap · 22M float · 3.18% daily turnover · Short 50% of daily vol

Edge Score

Quantitative competitive moat analysis scoring five pillars of durable advantage — cost leadership, brand intangibles, switching costs, network effects, and efficient scale — using industry percentile rankings on a 0–100 scale.

WEAK EDGE
51.0 / 100
NoneWeakNarrowWide
Primary source: Cost Advantage  ·  ROIC: -64.2%
Cost Advantage ★
96
Intangibles
39
Switching Cost
49
Network Effect
18
Scale
47
The Edge Score quantifies a company's competitive moat using five pillars: Cost Advantage (20%, operating margin and SG&A efficiency vs industry peers), Intangible Assets (25%, gross margin premium, R&D intensity, brand pricing power), Switching Costs (25%, revenue stability, earnings consistency, customer retention proxied by operating leverage), Network Effects (15%, revenue growth with expanding margins, market share dominance), and Efficient Scale (15%, market concentration, ROIC sustainability). Each pillar is scored 0–100 using industry percentile rankings, then weighted into a composite. Wide ≥ 70, Narrow ≥ 55, Weak ≥ 40, None < 40. NP shows a Weak competitive edge (51.0/100) — limited structural advantages that may face competitive pressure. The primary source of advantage is Cost Advantage. Negative ROIC of -64.2% indicates the company is currently destroying value, though this may reflect a growth investment phase.

Analyst Insights

Wall Street analyst consensus based on price targets and buy/sell/hold recommendations from institutional research coverage over the trailing 12 months.

Analyst Price Targets
$31
Low
$34
Avg Target
$36
High
Based on 5 analysts since Jul 21, 2026 earnings
Analyst Recommendations
Strong Buy: 0Buy: 7Hold: 7Sell: 0Strong Sell: 0
Rating Summary
ConsensusBuy
Avg Target$34.50
Analysts6
Consensus Change History
DateFieldFromTo
2026-08-19 consensus Hold Buy
2026-07-31 consensus Buy Hold
2026-07-23 consensus Hold Buy
2026-07-16 consensus Buy Hold
2025-12-30 consensus Hold Buy
Price Target Change History
DateFirmAnalystOldNewChangeUpside @ CallStock@Call
2026-08-19 Morgan Stanley — $31 $36 +5 +14.3% $31.50
2026-07-30 BMO Capital — $20 $32 +12 -8.9% $35.11
2026-07-23 Morgan Stanley — $29 $31 +2 +3.9% $29.85
2026-07-22 Deutsche Bank — $31 $33 +2 +12.9% $29.24
2026-07-22 Evercore ISI — $30 $36 +6 +20.5% $29.87
2026-07-15 Piper Sandler — $30 $39 +9 +22.7% $31.79
2026-06-30 Wells Fargo — Initiated $35 — +14.8% $30.48
2026-05-21 Morgan Stanley Bob Huang $25 $29 +4 +4.4% $27.78
2026-04-13 Mizuho Securities Yaron Kinar Initiated $26 — +2.4% $25.39
2026-03-04 Morgan Stanley Bob Jian Huang $27 $25 -2 +16.1% $21.54
2026-02-23 Raymond James Gregory Peters $23 $24 +1 +12.4% $21.36
2026-02-19 Evercore ISI — $35 $30 -5 +42.3% $21.07
2026-02-19 Piper Sandler — $33 $30 -3 +65.5% $18.13
2026-02-17 Raymond James Gregory Peters $30 $23 -7 +21.8% $18.89
2026-02-13 BMO Capital Michael Zaremski $25 $20 -5 +16.7% $17.14
2026-01-07 Goldman Sachs — Initiated $32 — +17.5% $27.65
2025-12-22 Deutsche Bank — $29 $31 +2 +8.0% $28.70
2025-11-17 Morgan Stanley Bob Huang $26 $27 +1 +7.8% $25.05
2025-10-27 Deutsche Bank — Initiated $29 — +10.0% $26.37
2025-10-27 Evercore ISI — Initiated $35 — +32.7% $26.37
2025-10-27 Raymond James Gregory Peters Initiated $30 — +13.8% $26.37
2025-10-27 Piper Sandler John Barnidge Initiated $33 — +25.1% $26.37
2025-10-27 Morgan Stanley Bob Jian Huang Initiated $26 — -1.4% $26.37
2025-10-27 National Bank — Initiated $23 — -12.8% $26.37
2025-10-27 BMO Capital Michael Zaremski Initiated $25 — -5.2% $26.37

Financial Rating

Composite financial health rating (A+ to F) based on discounted cash flow valuation, return on equity, return on assets, debt-to-equity leverage, and relative P/E and P/B multiples.

B-
Oct 02, 2026
DCF
5
ROE
1
ROA
5
D/E
1
P/E
2
P/B
1
The Financial Rating evaluates six fundamental factors — discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation, return on equity (ROE), return on assets (ROA), debt-to-equity leverage (D/E), and relative price-to-earnings (P/E) and price-to-book (P/B) multiples — each scored 1–5. NP receives an overall rating of B-. Strongest factors: DCF (5/5), ROA (5/5). Areas of concern: ROE (1/5), D/E (1/5), P/E (2/5), P/B (1/5).
Rating Change History
DateFromTo
2026-10-01 C+ B-
2026-07-27 B- C+
2026-07-01 B B-
2026-06-22 B- B
2026-03-16 C+ B-
2026-03-03 C- C+
2026-02-27 B C-
2026-02-18 B- B
2026-01-14 C- B-

InsiderStreet Scorecard

Proprietary multi-factor scorecard rating companies across seven fundamental dimensions — profitability, balance sheet strength, earnings quality, growth, value, momentum, and safety — each scored 0–100.

★ ★ ★ ★ ★ 62 Grade A
Profitability
80
Balance Sheet
44
Earnings Quality
52
Growth
—
Value
28
Momentum
—
Safety
0
Cash Flow
78
The InsiderStreet Scorecard rates companies across eight dimensions: Profitability (margins, ROA, ROE), Balance Sheet (leverage, liquidity, coverage), Earnings Quality (accruals, cash conversion), Growth (revenue and earnings trajectory), Value (P/E, P/B, earnings yield, Graham criteria), Momentum (revenue and earnings acceleration), Safety (Altman Z-Score risk adjustment), and Cash Flow (operating cash flow quality, FCF conversion, cash coverage). The overall score blends 35% quality, 35% value, and 30% momentum, with a penalty for distress-zone Altman scores. NP scores highest in Profitability (80/100) and lowest in Safety (0/100). An overall grade of A places NP among the highest-quality companies in its peer group.

Risk & Quality Signals

Academic financial models used by institutional investors to assess bankruptcy risk, earnings manipulation, financial strength, and credit quality.

Altman-I Score
-62.94
Distress Zone
Piotroski F-Score
4/9
✓ ✓ ✗ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✗ ✗
Beneish M-Score
—
—
Ohlson O-Score
5.95
Bankruptcy prob: 99.7%
High Risk
Credit Rating
B-
Score: 20.0/100
Earnings Quality
75/100
OCF/NI: 2.07x
Accruals: -28.9%
The Altman-I Score is adapted for insurance companies, emphasizing return on equity, tangible net worth, and cash reserves alongside the standard equity and earnings components. NP scores -62.94, placing it in the Distress Zone (safe > 3.0, distress < 1.5). Historically, companies in this range face elevated bankruptcy risk. The Piotroski F-Score (2000) is a 9-point binary checklist — four profitability tests (positive ROA, positive cash flow, improving ROA, cash flow exceeding net income), three leverage tests (declining debt ratio, improving current ratio, no share dilution), and two efficiency tests (improving gross margin, improving asset turnover). Each pass scores 1 point. NP scores 4/9, indicating moderate financial health — some areas of strength offset by weaknesses in others. The Ohlson O-Score (1980) is a 9-variable logistic regression that estimates bankruptcy probability using firm size, leverage, working capital, current ratio, profitability (ROA), cash flow coverage, negative equity flag, consecutive losses flag, and earnings trajectory. The raw score is converted to a probability via logistic transformation. NP's implied 99.7% bankruptcy probability signals significant financial distress. Our Credit Rating model scores companies on five weighted components — solvency (30%), earning power (25%), leverage (20%), liquidity (15%), and cash flow quality (10%) — then blends the absolute score with sector and industry peer rankings. For companies with large buyback programs, equity is adjusted by adding back cumulative 5-year repurchases (capped at 80% of FCF generated) to avoid penalizing shareholder-friendly capital allocation. NP receives an estimated rating of B- (score: 20.0/100). The Earnings Quality score measures how well reported earnings are backed by real cash. It evaluates the operating cash flow to net income ratio (OCF/NI ≥ 1.0 means every dollar of earnings is cash-backed) and the accruals ratio (the gap between earnings and cash flow relative to assets — lower is better). NP's score of 75/100 is high — cash flows strongly support reported earnings.

Valuation

Key valuation multiples comparing the stock's market price to its earnings, revenue, book value, and cash flows. Lower multiples may indicate relative undervaluation versus peers.

P/E
19.26x
PEG
0.02x
P/S
18.72x
P/B
-17.01x
P/FCF
79.32x
P/OCF
80.78x
EV/EBITDA
85.28x
EV/Revenue
34.73x
EV/EBIT
88.42x
EV/FCF
82.22x
Earnings Yield
0.60%
FCF Yield
1.26%
Shareholder Yield
0.00%
Graham Number
—
Equity-based multiples (P/E, P/B, P/FCF) compare the stock price to per-share fundamentals and are affected by capital structure. Enterprise value multiples (EV/EBITDA, EV/Revenue, EV/FCF) strip out debt and cash, making them more useful for cross-company comparisons regardless of how companies are financed. The Graham Number — √(22.5 × EPS × Book Value) — is Benjamin Graham's formula for the maximum price a defensive investor should pay. At 19.3x earnings, NP trades at a reasonable valuation.

DuPont Decomposition (5-Factor)

The 5-factor DuPont framework breaks Return on Equity into its component drivers — tax efficiency, interest burden, operating profitability, asset utilization, and financial leverage — to reveal what truly drives shareholder returns.

Tax Burden
0.649
NI / EBT
×
Interest Burden
0.785
EBT / EBIT
×
EBIT Margin
0.393
EBIT / Rev
×
Asset Turnover
1.345
Rev / Assets
×
Equity Multiplier
-0.460
Assets / Equity
=
ROE
-12.4%
The 5-factor DuPont identity decomposes ROE as: Tax Burden × Interest Burden × EBIT Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier = ROE. This reveals whether returns are driven by operating performance, financial leverage, or tax efficiency — three very different sources of profitability. NP's ROE of -12.4% is driven by Asset Turnover (1.345), indicating efficient use of assets to generate revenue.

Graham-Dodd Adjusted Valuation

Our adaptation of Graham's growth formula (Fair P/E = 8.5 + 2g) from The Intelligent Investor. The classic version relies on analyst growth projections, which can be unreliable. This adjusted model substitutes the company's realized 3-year EPS CAGR — a backward-looking, verifiable measure of actual earnings power — grounding the valuation in demonstrated performance rather than forecasts.

Two adjustments we make, and why. Growth is capped at 15%. Graham defined g as expected growth over the next seven to ten years, not last year's rate. Across US companies since 1994 the median realized 7-year EPS growth is 5–8% regardless of how fast a company grew beforehand, and of 4,457 company-quarters that grew faster than 200%, none sustained it. Uncapped, the formula assigned fair multiples in the hundreds to companies that had never held that rate — and scored worse than simply reading the P/E. Capped, it carries real information. The verdict has three states, not two. Tested over 377,249 stock-months, this ratio only separates outcomes at its extremes: below 0.25 beat the universe by 1.3 points a year, above 3.0 lagged by 2.7, and everything in between sat inside a one-point band. Rather than call two-thirds of the market "undervalued" on a threshold of 1.0, we say Neutral where the model cannot tell — which is most of the time.

Adj. Growth Rate
0.00%
Fair P/E
8.50x
Intrinsic Value
$1.60
Price/Value
19.71x
Margin of Safety
-1870.95%
Premium
1870.95%
Assessment
Overvalued
Graham's classic formula uses analyst-projected growth to estimate a fair P/E (8.5 + 2g). Our adjusted version replaces that projection with NP's realized 0.0% 3-year EPS CAGR, capped at 15% — demonstrated performance rather than forecasts, held to a rate companies have historically sustained. NP trades at a 1871% premium to its adjusted intrinsic value of $1.60, suggesting the market is pricing in future growth beyond what historical earnings support. The adjusted fair P/E of 8.5x compares to the current market P/E of 19.3x.

Profitability Trends

Historical profitability ratios tracking how efficiently the company converts revenue into returns for shareholders over time.

Leverage & Solvency Trends

Debt and liquidity metrics showing the company's financial leverage and ability to meet short-term and long-term obligations.

Efficiency & Working Capital Trends

Operating efficiency metrics measuring how quickly the company converts inventory to sales, collects receivables, and manages its cash conversion cycle.

Growth Trends (YoY %)

Year-over-year growth rates for key financial metrics, showing the trajectory of revenue, earnings, and cash flow generation.

Earnings Stability

R-squared of linear regression measuring how predictably revenue, earnings, and margins follow a trend over the trailing 5 years. 1.0 = perfectly predictable; lower values indicate erratic or cyclical behavior.

Monte Carlo Price Simulation

Geometric Brownian Motion with 1,000 antithetic paths over 1 year, seeded from 253 days of historical volatility. Percentile bands show the range of statistically plausible outcomes — this is a statistical model, not a forecast.

Current Price
$27.45
Median 1Y
$24.83
5th Pctile
$8.77
95th Pctile
$70.97
Ann. Volatility
63.7%
Analyst Target
$34.50
25th–75th percentile 5th–95th percentile Median path Historical Analyst target

Executive Compensation

C-suite compensation breakdown including salary, stock awards, options, and incentive pay. The CEO-to-employee pay ratio and Gini coefficient measure pay distribution fairness.

C-Suite Compensation

ExecutiveSalaryStockTotal
Trevor Burgess,
Chief Executive Officer and Chairman
$400,000 $39,659,280 $40,517,792
Matt Duffy, Risk
ident and Chief Risk Officer, Neptune Flood
$312,500 $15,837,060 $17,377,687
Jim Steiner, Financial
ancial Officer, Secretary and Director
$331,250 $10,713,300 $12,146,539

CEO Pay Ratio

251:1
CEO-to-Employee Pay Ratio
CEO Total Comp: $40,517,792
Avg Employee Cost (SGA/emp): $161,661
Employees: 62

C-Suite Pay Equality (Gini)

CEO Compensation Mix

Workforce & Productivity

Workforce efficiency metrics measuring revenue, profit, and R&D spend per employee — key indicators of operational leverage and human capital productivity.

Employees
62
Revenue / Employee
$2,573,403
Rev: $159,551,000
Profit / Employee
$603,435
NI: $37,413,000
SGA / Employee
$161,661
Avg labor cost proxy

Scaling Efficiency

All Ratios & Metrics

Complete fundamental data with up to 20 periods of history, sparkline trends, and current values across 13 categories and 130+ financial metrics.

Profitability
Metric Trend Q4'25 Q1'26 Q2'26 Current
ROE -1.9% -5.5% -12.4% -12.37%
ROA 6.7% 13.7% 26.9% 26.89%
ROIC 1.5% -35.5% -64.2% -64.17%
ROCE 1.1% 31.9% 52.8% 52.81%
Gross Margin 64.6% 70.0% 70.4% 70.43%
Operating Margin 31.6% 35.6% 47.3% 47.33%
Net Margin 9.9% 19.4% 28.3% 28.27%
EBITDA Margin 33.2% 38.7% 48.0% 47.99%
FCF Margin 31.5% 36.0% 42.2% 42.24%
OCF Margin 29.1% 36.1% 41.5% 41.48%
ROIC Economic snapshot only 2.32%
Cash ROA snapshot only 55.77%
NOPAT Margin snapshot only 25.35%
Pretax Margin snapshot only 30.83%
R&D / Revenue snapshot only 0.00%
SGA / Revenue snapshot only 0.00%
SBC / Revenue snapshot only 18.15%
Valuation
Metric Trend Q4'25 Q1'26 Q2'26 Current
P/E Ratio 927.60 301.56 167.53 19.257
P/S Ratio 92.05 43.23 33.51 18.721
P/B Ratio -17.71 -16.53 -20.72 -17.008
P/FCF 291.99 119.96 79.32 79.323
P/OCF 315.97 119.76 80.78 80.780
EV/EBITDA 292.96 126.66 85.28 85.285
EV/Revenue 97.35 45.27 34.73 34.730
EV/EBIT 314.11 135.90 88.42 88.417
EV/FCF 308.80 125.63 82.22 82.216
Earnings Yield 0.1% 0.3% 0.6% 0.60%
FCF Yield 0.3% 0.8% 1.3% 1.26%
PEG Ratio snapshot only 0.024
EV/OCF snapshot only 83.726
EV/Gross Profit snapshot only 50.750
Acquirers Multiple snapshot only 88.893
Shareholder Yield snapshot only 0.00%
Leverage & Solvency
Metric Trend Q4'25 Q1'26 Q2'26 Current
Current Ratio 0.99 — — —
Quick Ratio 0.99 — — —
Debt/Equity -1.05 -1.06 -1.08 -1.080
Net Debt/Equity — — — —
Debt/Assets 3.68 2.66 2.35 2.348
Debt/EBITDA 16.50 7.79 4.29 4.288
Net Debt/EBITDA 15.95 5.71 3.00 3.001
Interest Coverage 3.04 3.40 4.65 4.648
Equity Multiplier -0.29 -0.40 -0.46 -0.460
Debt Service Coverage snapshot only 4.819
Cash to Debt snapshot only 0.300
FCF to Debt snapshot only 0.242
Defensive Interval snapshot only 752.9 days
Efficiency & Turnover
Metric Trend Q4'25 Q1'26 Q2'26 Current
Asset Turnover 0.67 0.96 1.34 1.345
Inventory Turnover — — — —
Receivables Turnover — 7.53 12.28 12.275
Payables Turnover 1.53 — — —
DSO 0 48 30 29.7 days
DIO 0 0 0 0.0 days
DPO 239 0 0 —
Cash Conversion Cycle -239 48 30 —
Cash Velocity snapshot only 1.908
Capital Intensity snapshot only 0.744
Growth Quality
Metric Trend Q4'25 Q1'26 Q2'26 Current
Revenue Stability — — — —
Earnings Stability — — — —
Margin Stability — — — —
Rev. Growth Consistency 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000
Earn. Growth Consistency 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000
FCF Positive Streak 0 0 0 0
Earnings Persistence — — — —
Earnings Smoothness — — — —
ROE Trend — — — —
Gross Margin Trend — — — —
FCF Margin Trend — — — —
Sustainable Growth Rate — — — —
Internal Growth Rate 7.1% 15.9% 36.8% 36.79%
Cash Flow Quality
Metric Trend Q4'25 Q1'26 Q2'26 Current
OCF/Net Income 2.94 2.52 2.07 2.074
FCF/OCF 1.08 1.00 1.02 1.018
FCF/Net Income snapshot only 2.112
OCF/EBITDA snapshot only 1.019
CapEx/Revenue 2.4% 0.1% 0.8% 0.76%
CapEx/Depreciation snapshot only 0.528
Accruals Ratio -0.13 -0.21 -0.29 -0.289
Sloan Accruals snapshot only 0.090
Cash Flow Adequacy snapshot only 54.449
Earnings Quality Score snapshot only 0.750
Dividends & Buybacks
Metric Trend Q4'25 Q1'26 Q2'26 Current
Dividend Yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.00%
Dividend/Share $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Payout Ratio 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.00%
FCF Payout Ratio 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.00%
Total Payout Ratio 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.00%
Div. Increase Streak — — — —
Chowder Number — — — —
Buyback Yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.00%
Net Buyback Yield -0.0% -0.0% -0.0% -0.03%
Total Shareholder Return -0.0% -0.0% -0.0% -0.03%
DuPont Factors
Metric Trend Q4'25 Q1'26 Q2'26 Current
Tax Burden (NI/EBT) 0.48 0.61 0.65 0.649
Interest Burden (EBT/EBIT) 0.67 0.71 0.78 0.785
EBIT Margin 0.31 0.33 0.39 0.393
Asset Turnover 0.67 0.96 1.34 1.345
Equity Multiplier -0.29 -0.40 -0.46 -0.460
Per Share
Metric Trend Q4'25 Q1'26 Q2'26 Current
EPS (Diluted TTM) $0.03 $0.08 $0.19 $0.19
Book Value/Share $-1.65 $-1.46 $-1.52 $-1.61
Tangible Book/Share $-1.68 $-1.54 $-1.59 $-1.59
Revenue/Share $0.32 $0.56 $0.94 $1.00
FCF/Share $0.10 $0.20 $0.40 $0.53
OCF/Share $0.09 $0.20 $0.39 $0.53
Cash/Share $0.06 $0.41 $0.49 $0.52
EBITDA/Share $0.11 $0.20 $0.38 $0.38
Debt/Share $1.74 $1.56 $1.64 $1.64
Net Debt/Share $1.68 $1.14 $1.15 $1.15
Academic Models
Metric Trend Q4'25 Q1'26 Q2'26 Current
Altman-I Score — — — -62.940
Altman Z-Prime snapshot only 8.128
Piotroski F-Score 4 4 4 4
Beneish M-Score — — — —
Ohlson O-Score snapshot only 5.950
Net-Net WC snapshot only $-1.65
Credit
Metric Trend Q4'25 Q1'26 Q2'26 Current
Credit Rating snapshot only B-
Credit Score 20.00 20.00 20.00 20.000
Credit Grade snapshot only 16
Implied Spread (bps) snapshot only 900.000
Industry Credit Rank snapshot only 12
Sector Credit Rank snapshot only 14

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For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Data sourced from SEC filings. Privacy Terms