NTI NYSE
Northern Tier Energy LP
1W: +1.9%
1M: -2.6%
3M: -11.0%
1Y: -14.6%
3Y: -10.3%
$21.15
Last traded 2016-06-23 — delisted
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Edge Score
Quantitative competitive moat analysis scoring five pillars of durable advantage — cost leadership, brand intangibles, switching costs, network effects, and efficient scale — using industry percentile rankings on a 0–100 scale.
NO EDGE
39.3 / 100
NoneWeakNarrowWide
Cost Advantage
35
Intangibles
14
Switching Cost
60
Network Effect
27
Scale ★
65
The Edge Score quantifies a company's competitive moat using five pillars: Cost Advantage (20%, operating margin and SG&A efficiency vs industry peers), Intangible Assets (25%, gross margin premium, R&D intensity, brand pricing power), Switching Costs (25%, revenue stability, earnings consistency, customer retention proxied by operating leverage), Network Effects (15%, revenue growth with expanding margins, market share dominance), and Efficient Scale (15%, market concentration, ROIC sustainability). Each pillar is scored 0–100 using industry percentile rankings, then weighted into a composite. Wide ≥ 70, Narrow ≥ 55, Weak ≥ 40, None < 40.
NTI has No discernible competitive edge (39.3/100). The business operates without significant structural advantages.
The primary source of advantage is Efficient Scale.
ROIC of 8.4% suggests modest returns relative to capital deployed.
InsiderStreet Scorecard
Proprietary multi-factor scorecard rating companies across seven fundamental dimensions — profitability, balance sheet strength, earnings quality, growth, value, momentum, and safety — each scored 0–100.
★
★
★
★
★
22
Grade D
The InsiderStreet Scorecard rates companies across eight dimensions: Profitability (margins, ROA, ROE), Balance Sheet (leverage, liquidity, coverage), Earnings Quality (accruals, cash conversion), Growth (revenue and earnings trajectory), Value (P/E, P/B, earnings yield, Graham criteria), Momentum (revenue and earnings acceleration), Safety (Altman Z-Score risk adjustment), and Cash Flow (operating cash flow quality, FCF conversion, cash coverage). The overall score blends 35% quality, 35% value, and 30% momentum, with a penalty for distress-zone Altman scores.
NTI scores highest in Earnings Quality (73/100) and lowest in Growth (19/100).
A grade of D flags significant fundamental concerns across multiple dimensions.
Risk & Quality Signals
Academic financial models used by institutional investors to assess bankruptcy risk, earnings manipulation, financial strength, and credit quality.
Altman Z-Score
1.59
Distress Zone
Piotroski F-Score
4/9
✓
✓
✗
✓
✗
✓
✗
✗
✗
Beneish M-Score
-1.68
Possible Manipulator
Ohlson O-Score
-6.47
Bankruptcy prob: 0.2%
Low Risk
Credit Rating
BB
Score: 40.5/100
Trend: Deteriorating
Earnings Quality
75/100
OCF/NI: 2.73x
Accruals: -6.9%
The Altman Z-Score (1968) combines five ratios — working capital, retained earnings, EBIT, market value of equity, and sales, all relative to total assets or liabilities — into a single bankruptcy predictor.
NTI scores 1.59, placing it in the Distress Zone (safe > 2.99, distress < 1.81).
Historically, companies in this range face elevated bankruptcy risk.
The Piotroski F-Score (2000) is a 9-point binary checklist — four profitability tests (positive ROA, positive cash flow, improving ROA, cash flow exceeding net income), three leverage tests (declining debt ratio, improving current ratio, no share dilution), and two efficiency tests (improving gross margin, improving asset turnover). Each pass scores 1 point.
NTI scores 4/9, indicating moderate financial health — some areas of strength offset by weaknesses in others.
The Beneish M-Score (1999) is an 8-variable model that detects earnings manipulation by comparing year-over-year changes in receivables, gross margins, asset quality, sales growth, depreciation, SG&A, leverage, and accruals. Scores above −1.78 statistically resemble past manipulators.
NTI's score of -1.68 exceeds the −1.78 red flag threshold — this does not confirm manipulation but indicates the earnings profile resembles past manipulators statistically.
The Ohlson O-Score (1980) is a 9-variable logistic regression that estimates bankruptcy probability using firm size, leverage, working capital, current ratio, profitability (ROA), cash flow coverage, negative equity flag, consecutive losses flag, and earnings trajectory. The raw score is converted to a probability via logistic transformation.
NTI's implied 0.2% bankruptcy probability is well within safe territory.
Our Credit Rating model scores companies on five weighted components — solvency (30%), earning power (25%), leverage (20%), liquidity (15%), and cash flow quality (10%) — then blends the absolute score with sector and industry peer rankings. For companies with large buyback programs, equity is adjusted by adding back cumulative 5-year repurchases (capped at 80% of FCF generated) to avoid penalizing shareholder-friendly capital allocation.
NTI receives an estimated rating of BB (score: 40.5/100), with a deteriorating trend.
The Earnings Quality score measures how well reported earnings are backed by real cash. It evaluates the operating cash flow to net income ratio (OCF/NI ≥ 1.0 means every dollar of earnings is cash-backed) and the accruals ratio (the gap between earnings and cash flow relative to assets — lower is better).
NTI's score of 75/100 is high — cash flows strongly support reported earnings.
Valuation
Key valuation multiples comparing the stock's market price to its earnings, revenue, book value, and cash flows. Lower multiples may indicate relative undervaluation versus peers.
P/E
17.06x
PEG
-0.37x
P/S
0.00x
P/B
1.25x
P/FCF
57.28x
P/OCF
6.42x
EV/EBITDA
5.77x
EV/Revenue
1.30x
EV/EBIT
10.03x
EV/FCF
100.40x
Earnings Yield
5.70%
FCF Yield
1.75%
Shareholder Yield
1.73%
Graham Number
$20.33
Equity-based multiples (P/E, P/B, P/FCF) compare the stock price to per-share fundamentals and are affected by capital structure. Enterprise value multiples (EV/EBITDA, EV/Revenue, EV/FCF) strip out debt and cash, making them more useful for cross-company comparisons regardless of how companies are financed. The Graham Number — √(22.5 × EPS × Book Value) — is Benjamin Graham's formula for the maximum price a defensive investor should pay.
At 17.1x earnings, NTI trades at a reasonable valuation.
An earnings yield of 5.7% exceeds typical risk-free rates, suggesting equities are being compensated for risk.
Graham's intrinsic value formula yields $20.33 per share, 4% below the current price.
DuPont Decomposition (5-Factor)
The 5-factor DuPont framework breaks Return on Equity into its component drivers — tax efficiency, interest burden, operating profitability, asset utilization, and financial leverage — to reveal what truly drives shareholder returns.
Tax Burden
0.520
NI / EBT
Interest Burden
0.627
EBT / EBIT
EBIT Margin
0.130
EBIT / Rev
Asset Turnover
0.938
Rev / Assets
Equity Multiplier
3.254
Assets / Equity
ROE
12.9%
The 5-factor DuPont identity decomposes ROE as: Tax Burden × Interest Burden × EBIT Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier = ROE. This reveals whether returns are driven by operating performance, financial leverage, or tax efficiency — three very different sources of profitability.
NTI's ROE of 12.9% is driven by
financial leverage (equity multiplier: 3.25x). Note: high leverage means ROE is amplified by debt rather than operational performance.
A tax burden ratio of 0.52 suggests the company retains less than 60% of pre-tax earnings after taxes.
Graham-Dodd Adjusted Valuation
Our adaptation of Graham's growth formula (Fair P/E = 8.5 + 2g) from The Intelligent Investor. The classic version relies on analyst growth projections, which can be unreliable. This adjusted model substitutes the company's realized 3-year EPS CAGR — a backward-looking, verifiable measure of actual earnings power — grounding the valuation in demonstrated performance rather than forecasts.
Two adjustments we make, and why. Growth is capped at 15%. Graham defined g as expected growth over the next seven to ten years, not last year's rate. Across US companies since 1994 the median realized 7-year EPS growth is 5–8% regardless of how fast a company grew beforehand, and of 4,457 company-quarters that grew faster than 200%, none sustained it. Uncapped, the formula assigned fair multiples in the hundreds to companies that had never held that rate — and scored worse than simply reading the P/E. Capped, it carries real information. The verdict has three states, not two. Tested over 377,249 stock-months, this ratio only separates outcomes at its extremes: below 0.25 beat the universe by 1.3 points a year, above 3.0 lagged by 2.7, and everything in between sat inside a one-point band. Rather than call two-thirds of the market "undervalued" on a threshold of 1.0, we say Neutral where the model cannot tell — which is most of the time.
Adj. Growth Rate
0.00%
Fair P/E
8.50x
Intrinsic Value
$10.25
Price/Value
2.06x
Margin of Safety
-106.31%
Premium
106.31%
Assessment
Neutral
Graham's classic formula uses analyst-projected growth to estimate a fair P/E (8.5 + 2g). Our adjusted version replaces that projection with NTI's realized 0.0% 3-year EPS CAGR, capped at 15% — demonstrated performance rather than forecasts, held to a rate companies have historically sustained.
NTI trades at a 106% premium to its adjusted intrinsic value of $10.25, suggesting the market is pricing in future growth beyond what historical earnings support.
The adjusted fair P/E of 8.5x compares to the current market P/E of 17.1x.
Profitability Trends
Historical profitability ratios tracking how efficiently the company converts revenue into returns for shareholders over time.
Leverage & Solvency Trends
Debt and liquidity metrics showing the company's financial leverage and ability to meet short-term and long-term obligations.
Efficiency & Working Capital Trends
Operating efficiency metrics measuring how quickly the company converts inventory to sales, collects receivables, and manages its cash conversion cycle.
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Year-over-year growth rates for key financial metrics, showing the trajectory of revenue, earnings, and cash flow generation.
Earnings Stability
R-squared of linear regression measuring how predictably revenue, earnings, and margins follow a trend over the trailing 5 years. 1.0 = perfectly predictable; lower values indicate erratic or cyclical behavior.
Monte Carlo Price Simulation
Geometric Brownian Motion with 1,000 antithetic paths over 1 year, seeded from 984 days of historical volatility. Percentile bands show the range of statistically plausible outcomes — this is a statistical model, not a forecast.
Current Price
$21.15
Median 1Y
$22.25
5th Pctile
$13.54
95th Pctile
$36.57
Ann. Volatility
32.5%
25th–75th percentile
5th–95th percentile
Median path
Historical
All Ratios & Metrics
Complete fundamental data with up to 20 periods of history, sparkline trends, and current values across 13 categories and 130+ financial metrics.
Profitability
| Metric | Trend | Q4'12 | Q1'13 | Q2'13 | Q3'13 | Q4'13 | Q1'14 | Q2'14 | Q3'14 | Q4'14 | Q1'15 | Q2'15 | Q3'15 | Q4'15 | Q1'16 | Q2'16 | Q3'16 | Q4'16 | Q1'17 | Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ROE | 40.8% | 64.4% | 86.0% | 1.0% | 52.2% | 39.2% | 40.5% | 55.4% | 60.0% | 61.6% | 75.4% | 73.6% | 83.2% | 55.5% | 17.3% | 11.3% | 12.9% | 12.9% | 12.91% | |
| ROA | 17.4% | 28.2% | 35.1% | 38.3% | 20.5% | 15.8% | 15.4% | 20.9% | 21.0% | 23.5% | 27.9% | 28.9% | 28.6% | 20.0% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.97% | |
| ROIC | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 39.2% | 30.2% | 32.8% | 37.5% | 39.5% | 43.3% | 51.9% | 52.4% | 53.4% | 36.7% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 8.42% | |
| ROCE | 31.8% | 47.3% | 60.3% | 68.2% | 37.3% | 28.8% | 28.2% | 32.0% | 34.7% | 36.8% | 43.9% | 45.3% | 47.6% | 34.7% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 8.79% | |
| Gross Margin | 78.7% | 21.1% | 14.7% | 9.2% | 11.9% | 14.1% | 10.6% | 13.8% | 13.8% | 27.4% | 25.5% | 25.2% | 13.7% | 21.5% | -1.7% | -1.2% | -1.3% | -1.3% | -1.32% | |
| Operating Margin | 12.3% | 11.8% | 4.2% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 6.8% | 2.6% | 15.1% | 14.5% | 12.9% | -0.7% | 3.6% | 27.1% | 11.9% | 1.9% | 6.4% | 6.43% | |
| Net Margin | 4.2% | 10.7% | 5.6% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 6.2% | 1.5% | 14.0% | 13.4% | 11.6% | -1.6% | 2.4% | 10.0% | 5.3% | 0.0% | 1.4% | 1.40% | |
| EBITDA Margin | 6.1% | 12.0% | 7.3% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 7.5% | 3.6% | 16.4% | 15.6% | 14.1% | 0.9% | 5.5% | 37.7% | 21.0% | 16.1% | 14.7% | 14.71% | |
| FCF Margin | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 1.5% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 5.3% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 7.4% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 1.30% | |
| OCF Margin | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 10.9% | 12.0% | 10.3% | 10.5% | 12.6% | 13.3% | 11.6% | 11.56% | |
| ROE 3Y Avg | snapshot only | 43.35% | ||||||||||||||||||
| ROE 5Y Avg | snapshot only | 47.18% | ||||||||||||||||||
| ROA 3Y Avg | snapshot only | 15.44% | ||||||||||||||||||
| ROIC 3Y Avg | snapshot only | 16.25% | ||||||||||||||||||
| ROIC Economic | snapshot only | 8.17% | ||||||||||||||||||
| Cash ROA | snapshot only | 6.55% | ||||||||||||||||||
| Cash ROIC | snapshot only | 10.58% | ||||||||||||||||||
| CROIC | snapshot only | 1.19% | ||||||||||||||||||
| NOPAT Margin | snapshot only | 9.20% | ||||||||||||||||||
| Pretax Margin | snapshot only | 8.13% | ||||||||||||||||||
| R&D / Revenue | snapshot only | 0.00% | ||||||||||||||||||
| SGA / Revenue | snapshot only | 11.31% | ||||||||||||||||||
| SBC / Revenue | snapshot only | 0.00% | ||||||||||||||||||
Valuation
| Metric | Trend | Q4'12 | Q1'13 | Q2'13 | Q3'13 | Q4'13 | Q1'14 | Q2'14 | Q3'14 | Q4'14 | Q1'15 | Q2'15 | Q3'15 | Q4'15 | Q1'16 | Q2'16 | Q3'16 | Q4'16 | Q1'17 | Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 11.83 | 8.67 | 5.80 | 4.44 | 9.82 | 12.96 | 13.93 | 8.76 | 8.45 | 8.34 | 6.26 | 5.88 | 7.24 | 9.33 | 10.44 | 16.94 | 15.83 | 17.54 | 17.056 | |
| P/S Ratio | 0.50 | 0.48 | 0.32 | 0.22 | 0.46 | 0.46 | 0.43 | 0.37 | 0.37 | 0.47 | 0.51 | 0.57 | 0.71 | 0.68 | 0.64 | 0.71 | 0.74 | 0.74 | 0.000 | |
| P/B Ratio | 4.83 | 5.59 | 4.99 | 4.44 | 5.66 | 5.37 | 5.72 | 4.49 | 5.06 | 4.98 | 4.38 | 4.25 | 6.11 | 5.83 | 1.18 | 1.25 | 1.26 | 1.39 | 1.252 | |
| P/FCF | 8.42 | 9.41 | 6.64 | 4.28 | 17.05 | 11.86 | 11.89 | 24.57 | 11.69 | 13.84 | 9.54 | 5.93 | 7.16 | 9.26 | 17.80 | 21.62 | 25.77 | 57.28 | 57.282 | |
| P/OCF | 7.58 | 7.85 | 5.10 | 3.41 | 9.88 | 8.48 | 9.49 | 15.21 | 9.30 | 11.12 | 8.21 | 5.26 | 5.90 | 6.65 | 6.10 | 5.64 | 5.56 | 6.42 | 6.419 | |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.30 | 6.85 | 4.78 | 3.60 | 8.22 | 9.96 | 10.71 | 7.60 | 7.30 | 7.19 | 5.61 | 5.31 | 6.50 | 8.02 | 7.98 | 7.72 | 6.10 | 5.77 | 5.774 | |
| EV/Revenue | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.35 | 0.24 | 0.50 | 0.49 | 0.47 | 0.42 | 0.42 | 0.52 | 0.56 | 0.64 | 0.79 | 0.79 | 1.23 | 1.33 | 1.29 | 1.30 | 1.301 | |
| EV/EBIT | 9.40 | 7.62 | 5.32 | 4.06 | 9.41 | 11.80 | 12.79 | 8.73 | 8.41 | 8.16 | 6.23 | 5.89 | 7.28 | 9.34 | 10.39 | 11.40 | 10.22 | 10.03 | 10.027 | |
| EV/FCF | 8.45 | 9.78 | 7.18 | 4.63 | 18.53 | 12.63 | 12.74 | 27.50 | 13.25 | 15.26 | 10.53 | 6.62 | 8.00 | 10.68 | 34.28 | 40.22 | 45.10 | 100.40 | 100.395 | |
| Earnings Yield | 8.5% | 11.5% | 17.2% | 22.5% | 10.2% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 11.4% | 11.8% | 12.0% | 16.0% | 17.0% | 13.8% | 10.7% | 9.6% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.70% | |
| FCF Yield | 11.9% | 10.6% | 15.1% | 23.3% | 5.9% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 4.1% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 10.5% | 16.9% | 14.0% | 10.8% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 1.7% | 1.75% | |
| Price/Tangible Book | snapshot only | 7.946 | ||||||||||||||||||
| EV/OCF | snapshot only | 11.251 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Acquirers Multiple | snapshot only | 10.797 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Shareholder Yield | snapshot only | 1.73% | ||||||||||||||||||
| Graham Number | snapshot only | $20.33 | ||||||||||||||||||
Leverage & Solvency
| Metric | Trend | Q4'12 | Q1'13 | Q2'13 | Q3'13 | Q4'13 | Q1'14 | Q2'14 | Q3'14 | Q4'14 | Q1'15 | Q2'15 | Q3'15 | Q4'15 | Q1'16 | Q2'16 | Q3'16 | Q4'16 | Q1'17 | Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.71 | 1.72 | 1.46 | 1.35 | 1.26 | 1.33 | 1.30 | 1.64 | 1.53 | 1.82 | 1.72 | 1.91 | 1.43 | 1.38 | 1.79 | 2.11 | 1.70 | 1.79 | 1.791 | |
| Quick Ratio | 1.24 | 1.06 | 0.92 | 0.87 | 0.85 | 0.84 | 0.89 | 0.88 | 0.88 | 1.00 | 0.98 | 1.01 | 0.77 | 0.64 | 1.08 | 1.35 | 0.92 | 0.86 | 0.865 | |
| Debt/Equity | 0.58 | 0.57 | 0.64 | 0.69 | 0.71 | 0.64 | 0.66 | 0.76 | 0.90 | 0.77 | 0.72 | 0.72 | 0.90 | 1.00 | 1.21 | 1.23 | 1.11 | 1.14 | 1.144 | |
| Net Debt/Equity | 0.02 | 0.22 | 0.40 | 0.36 | 0.49 | 0.35 | 0.41 | 0.54 | 0.68 | 0.51 | 0.46 | 0.49 | 0.71 | 0.89 | 1.09 | 1.07 | 0.94 | 1.04 | 1.045 | |
| Debt/Assets | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.26 | 0.26 | 0.25 | 0.24 | 0.23 | 0.28 | 0.31 | 0.30 | 0.28 | 0.30 | 0.31 | 0.33 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.34 | 0.35 | 0.347 | |
| Debt/EBITDA | 1.00 | 0.68 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.94 | 1.12 | 1.15 | 1.15 | 1.14 | 1.01 | 0.83 | 0.81 | 0.86 | 1.19 | 4.26 | 4.11 | 3.07 | 2.72 | 2.716 | |
| Net Debt/EBITDA | 0.03 | 0.26 | 0.36 | 0.27 | 0.66 | 0.61 | 0.71 | 0.81 | 0.86 | 0.67 | 0.53 | 0.55 | 0.68 | 1.06 | 3.84 | 3.57 | 2.61 | 2.48 | 2.480 | |
| Interest Coverage | 5.91 | 7.72 | 8.17 | 7.90 | 9.75 | 8.03 | 7.77 | 10.24 | 10.35 | 11.36 | 13.38 | 13.35 | 12.84 | 9.78 | 5.39 | 3.59 | 2.96 | 2.68 | 2.681 | |
| Equity Multiplier | 2.35 | 2.28 | 2.45 | 2.61 | 2.79 | 2.70 | 2.82 | 2.68 | 2.92 | 2.54 | 2.60 | 2.41 | 2.89 | 3.05 | 3.33 | 3.43 | 3.28 | 3.30 | 3.299 | |
| Cash Ratio | snapshot only | 0.185 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Debt Service Coverage | snapshot only | 4.655 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Cash to Debt | snapshot only | 0.087 | ||||||||||||||||||
| FCF to Debt | snapshot only | 0.021 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Defensive Interval | snapshot only | 592.5 days | ||||||||||||||||||
Efficiency & Turnover
| Metric | Trend | Q4'12 | Q1'13 | Q2'13 | Q3'13 | Q4'13 | Q1'14 | Q2'14 | Q3'14 | Q4'14 | Q1'15 | Q2'15 | Q3'15 | Q4'15 | Q1'16 | Q2'16 | Q3'16 | Q4'16 | Q1'17 | Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asset Turnover | 4.09 | 5.14 | 6.36 | 7.82 | 4.42 | 4.50 | 4.94 | 4.91 | 4.84 | 4.19 | 3.46 | 2.98 | 2.94 | 2.74 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.86 | 0.94 | 0.938 | |
| Inventory Turnover | 6.10 | 8.59 | 15.51 | 24.18 | 25.55 | 20.89 | 26.36 | 20.53 | 22.73 | 17.11 | 13.84 | 9.48 | 10.60 | 9.10 | 8.18 | 10.39 | 11.80 | 13.46 | 13.456 | |
| Receivables Turnover | 36.08 | 43.05 | 35.75 | 54.16 | 26.84 | 28.09 | 23.00 | 28.03 | 23.25 | 22.79 | 15.46 | 16.69 | 16.14 | 17.10 | 7.65 | 9.20 | 9.48 | 10.73 | 10.733 | |
| Payables Turnover | 4.30 | 7.99 | 10.07 | 13.70 | 14.37 | 14.31 | 13.88 | 14.86 | 13.79 | 12.32 | 8.70 | 9.12 | 8.22 | 8.42 | 7.31 | 11.10 | 11.33 | 15.01 | 15.006 | |
| DSO | 10 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 14 | 13 | 16 | 13 | 16 | 16 | 24 | 22 | 23 | 21 | 48 | 40 | 38 | 34 | 34.0 days | |
| DIO | 60 | 43 | 24 | 15 | 14 | 17 | 14 | 18 | 16 | 21 | 26 | 39 | 34 | 40 | 45 | 35 | 31 | 27 | 27.1 days | |
| DPO | 85 | 46 | 36 | 27 | 25 | 26 | 26 | 25 | 26 | 30 | 42 | 40 | 44 | 43 | 50 | 33 | 32 | 24 | 24.3 days | |
| Cash Conversion Cycle | -15 | 5 | -3 | -5 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 20 | 13 | 18 | 42 | 42 | 37 | 37 | 36.8 days | |
| Fixed Asset Turnover | snapshot only | 1.317 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Operating Cycle | snapshot only | 61.1 days | ||||||||||||||||||
| Cash Velocity | snapshot only | 18.783 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Capital Intensity | snapshot only | 1.764 | ||||||||||||||||||
Growth (YoY)
| Metric | Trend | Q4'12 | Q1'13 | Q2'13 | Q3'13 | Q4'13 | Q1'14 | Q2'14 | Q3'14 | Q4'14 | Q1'15 | Q2'15 | Q3'15 | Q4'15 | Q1'16 | Q2'16 | Q3'16 | Q4'16 | Q1'17 | Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | — | — | — | — | 7.0% | -9.7% | -17.7% | -30.6% | 11.6% | -4.0% | -23.2% | -36.0% | -38.7% | -35.7% | -29.6% | -21.5% | -15.2% | -3.3% | -3.26% | |
| Net Income | — | — | — | — | 17.0% | -42.2% | -53.5% | -39.7% | 4.5% | 53.5% | 98.8% | 46.1% | 37.3% | -16.4% | -46.8% | -65.9% | -59.4% | -44.0% | -44.00% | |
| EPS | — | — | — | — | 16.5% | -42.4% | -53.7% | -40.0% | 4.6% | 53.0% | 98.0% | 45.4% | 36.4% | -16.9% | -46.7% | -67.8% | -62.6% | -52.2% | -52.25% | |
| FCF | — | — | — | — | -52.0% | -31.5% | -37.5% | -79.3% | 31.2% | -15.2% | 11.3% | 3.1% | 91.8% | 39.7% | -52.4% | -73.1% | -75.3% | -83.0% | -82.99% | |
| EBITDA | — | — | — | — | 6.2% | -39.2% | -50.6% | -41.6% | 5.6% | 41.8% | 75.8% | 39.8% | 30.1% | -12.3% | 8.7% | 12.6% | 48.3% | 1.2% | 1.22% | |
| Op. Income | — | — | — | — | -58.2% | -73.7% | -73.0% | -64.0% | 15.3% | 71.7% | 92.8% | 43.0% | 33.8% | -14.6% | -10.0% | -19.1% | -6.8% | 38.4% | 38.44% | |
| OCF Growth | snapshot only | 8.98% | ||||||||||||||||||
| Asset Growth | snapshot only | 3.77% | ||||||||||||||||||
| Equity Growth | snapshot only | 3.42% | ||||||||||||||||||
| Debt Growth | snapshot only | 4.06% | ||||||||||||||||||
| Shares Change | snapshot only | 17.26% | ||||||||||||||||||
Growth (CAGR)
| Metric | Trend | Q4'12 | Q1'13 | Q2'13 | Q3'13 | Q4'13 | Q1'14 | Q2'14 | Q3'14 | Q4'14 | Q1'15 | Q2'15 | Q3'15 | Q4'15 | Q1'16 | Q2'16 | Q3'16 | Q4'16 | Q1'17 | Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue 3Y | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | -9.9% | -17.7% | -23.7% | -29.6% | -16.6% | -15.8% | -15.80% | |
| Revenue 5Y | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| EPS 3Y | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 18.4% | -9.9% | -21.2% | -34.5% | -18.9% | -15.3% | -15.30% | |
| EPS 5Y | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Net Income 3Y | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 18.8% | -9.5% | -21.0% | -33.0% | -16.5% | -10.4% | -10.43% | |
| Net Income 5Y | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| EBITDA 3Y | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 13.4% | -8.9% | -1.9% | -2.8% | 26.8% | 40.3% | 40.30% | |
| EBITDA 5Y | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Gross Profit 3Y | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | -40.0% | -43.5% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Gross Profit 5Y | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Op. Income 3Y | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | -13.6% | -27.2% | -22.3% | -25.3% | 12.9% | 26.6% | 26.62% | |
| Op. Income 5Y | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FCF 3Y | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 6.5% | -6.8% | -30.9% | -39.0% | -14.7% | -41.4% | -41.38% | |
| FCF 5Y | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| OCF 3Y | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 9.7% | -1.9% | -9.5% | -11.5% | 18.6% | 8.7% | 8.73% | |
| OCF 5Y | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Assets 3Y | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.0% | 0.8% | 72.2% | 75.0% | 70.7% | 66.3% | 66.30% | |
| Assets 5Y | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Equity 3Y | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | -6.7% | -8.5% | 55.5% | 59.8% | 61.7% | 55.5% | 55.51% | |
| Book Value 3Y | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | -7.0% | -8.9% | 55.1% | 56.4% | 57.0% | 47.1% | 47.06% | |
| Dividend 3Y | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Growth Quality
| Metric | Trend | Q4'12 | Q1'13 | Q2'13 | Q3'13 | Q4'13 | Q1'14 | Q2'14 | Q3'14 | Q4'14 | Q1'15 | Q2'15 | Q3'15 | Q4'15 | Q1'16 | Q2'16 | Q3'16 | Q4'16 | Q1'17 | Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Stability | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.97 | 0.93 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.20 | 0.85 | 1.00 | 0.95 | 0.74 | 0.86 | 0.859 | |
| Earnings Stability | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.92 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0.09 | 0.87 | 0.11 | 0.24 | 0.57 | 0.00 | 0.46 | 0.460 | |
| Margin Stability | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.14 | 0.31 | 0.03 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.000 | |
| Rev. Growth Consistency | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.000 | |
| Earn. Growth Consistency | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.000 | |
| FCF Positive Streak | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Earnings Persistence | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.98 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.82 | 0.85 | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.82 | 0.824 | |
| Earnings Smoothness | — | — | — | — | 0.84 | 0.47 | 0.27 | 0.51 | 0.96 | 0.58 | 0.34 | 0.63 | 0.69 | 0.82 | 0.39 | 0.02 | 0.16 | 0.44 | 0.436 | |
| ROE Trend | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.11 | 0.07 | 0.07 | -0.03 | 0.26 | 0.12 | -0.44 | -0.54 | -0.64 | -0.53 | -0.531 | |
| Gross Margin Trend | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | -0.33 | -0.25 | -0.16 | -0.09 | 0.10 | 0.08 | -0.45 | -0.86 | -1.25 | -1.57 | -1.569 | |
| FCF Margin Trend | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | 0.01 | 0.06 | 0.07 | 0.04 | -0.01 | -0.02 | -0.04 | -0.04 | -0.041 | |
| Sustainable Growth Rate | 40.8% | 64.4% | 86.0% | 1.0% | 52.2% | 39.2% | 40.5% | 55.4% | 60.0% | 61.6% | 75.4% | 73.6% | 83.2% | 55.5% | 17.3% | 11.3% | 12.9% | 12.9% | 12.91% | |
| Internal Growth Rate | 21.0% | 39.3% | 54.1% | 62.0% | 25.8% | 18.8% | 18.2% | 26.4% | 26.6% | 30.8% | 38.7% | 40.7% | 40.1% | 25.0% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.13% |
Cash Flow Quality
| Metric | Trend | Q4'12 | Q1'13 | Q2'13 | Q3'13 | Q4'13 | Q1'14 | Q2'14 | Q3'14 | Q4'14 | Q1'15 | Q2'15 | Q3'15 | Q4'15 | Q1'16 | Q2'16 | Q3'16 | Q4'16 | Q1'17 | Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OCF/Net Income | 1.56 | 1.10 | 1.14 | 1.30 | 0.99 | 1.53 | 1.47 | 0.58 | 0.91 | 0.75 | 0.76 | 1.12 | 1.23 | 1.40 | 1.71 | 3.00 | 2.85 | 2.73 | 2.732 | |
| FCF/OCF | 0.90 | 0.83 | 0.77 | 0.80 | 0.58 | 0.72 | 0.80 | 0.62 | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.86 | 0.89 | 0.82 | 0.72 | 0.34 | 0.26 | 0.22 | 0.11 | 0.112 | |
| FCF/Net Income | snapshot only | 0.306 | ||||||||||||||||||
| OCF/EBITDA | snapshot only | 0.513 | ||||||||||||||||||
| CapEx/Revenue | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 6.9% | 9.3% | 10.4% | 10.3% | 10.26% | |
| CapEx/Depreciation | snapshot only | 0.963 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Accruals Ratio | -0.10 | -0.03 | -0.05 | -0.12 | 0.00 | -0.08 | -0.07 | 0.09 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.07 | -0.03 | -0.07 | -0.08 | -0.04 | -0.07 | -0.07 | -0.07 | -0.069 | |
| Sloan Accruals | snapshot only | 0.071 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Cash Flow Adequacy | snapshot only | 1.126 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Earnings Quality Score | snapshot only | 0.750 | ||||||||||||||||||
Dividends & Buybacks
| Metric | Trend | Q4'12 | Q1'13 | Q2'13 | Q3'13 | Q4'13 | Q1'14 | Q2'14 | Q3'14 | Q4'14 | Q1'15 | Q2'15 | Q3'15 | Q4'15 | Q1'16 | Q2'16 | Q3'16 | Q4'16 | Q1'17 | Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.00% | |
| Dividend/Share | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | |
| Payout Ratio | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.00% | |
| FCF Payout Ratio | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.00% | |
| Total Payout Ratio | 1.4% | 1.4% | 97.5% | 97.9% | 37.1% | 23.4% | 53.2% | 26.4% | 36.4% | 27.3% | 30.9% | 26.8% | 21.4% | 5.3% | 9.6% | 25.5% | 55.6% | 30.4% | 30.38% | |
| Div. Increase Streak | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Chowder Number | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Buyback Yield | 11.7% | 16.2% | 16.8% | 22.0% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 1.73% | |
| Net Buyback Yield | 11.7% | 16.2% | 16.8% | 22.0% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 0.6% | -3.8% | -11.9% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 1.72% | |
| Total Shareholder Return | 11.7% | 16.2% | 16.8% | 22.0% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 0.6% | -3.8% | -11.9% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 1.72% |
DuPont Factors
| Metric | Trend | Q4'12 | Q1'13 | Q2'13 | Q3'13 | Q4'13 | Q1'14 | Q2'14 | Q3'14 | Q4'14 | Q1'15 | Q2'15 | Q3'15 | Q4'15 | Q1'16 | Q2'16 | Q3'16 | Q4'16 | Q1'17 | Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tax Burden (NI/EBT) | 0.95 | 0.97 | 0.97 | 0.97 | 0.98 | 0.98 | 0.98 | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.97 | 0.97 | 0.97 | 0.98 | 0.97 | 0.63 | 0.50 | 0.56 | 0.52 | 0.520 | |
| Interest Burden (EBT/EBIT) | 0.83 | 0.87 | 0.88 | 0.87 | 0.90 | 0.88 | 0.87 | 0.90 | 0.90 | 0.91 | 0.93 | 0.93 | 0.92 | 0.90 | 0.81 | 0.72 | 0.66 | 0.63 | 0.627 | |
| EBIT Margin | 0.05 | 0.07 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 0.09 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.08 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.130 | |
| Asset Turnover | 4.09 | 5.14 | 6.36 | 7.82 | 4.42 | 4.50 | 4.94 | 4.91 | 4.84 | 4.19 | 3.46 | 2.98 | 2.94 | 2.74 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.86 | 0.94 | 0.938 | |
| Equity Multiplier | 2.35 | 2.28 | 2.45 | 2.61 | 2.55 | 2.48 | 2.63 | 2.65 | 2.86 | 2.62 | 2.70 | 2.55 | 2.91 | 2.77 | 3.16 | 3.20 | 3.20 | 3.25 | 3.254 |
Per Share
| Metric | Trend | Q4'12 | Q1'13 | Q2'13 | Q3'13 | Q4'13 | Q1'14 | Q2'14 | Q3'14 | Q4'14 | Q1'15 | Q2'15 | Q3'15 | Q4'15 | Q1'16 | Q2'16 | Q3'16 | Q4'16 | Q1'17 | Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS (Diluted TTM) | $2.15 | $3.45 | $4.14 | $4.44 | $2.50 | $1.98 | $1.92 | $2.67 | $2.62 | $3.04 | $3.80 | $3.88 | $3.57 | $2.53 | $2.03 | $1.25 | $1.34 | $1.21 | $1.21 | |
| Book Value/Share | $5.26 | $5.35 | $4.82 | $4.44 | $4.35 | $4.79 | $4.67 | $5.20 | $4.38 | $5.09 | $5.42 | $5.36 | $4.23 | $4.04 | $17.98 | $16.98 | $16.82 | $15.24 | $16.89 | |
| Tangible Book/Share | $4.88 | $4.97 | $4.43 | $4.05 | $3.98 | $4.42 | $4.31 | $4.83 | $4.01 | $4.73 | $5.06 | $5.00 | $3.87 | $3.68 | $3.12 | $2.97 | $3.21 | $2.66 | $2.66 | |
| Revenue/Share | $50.63 | $62.75 | $75.05 | $90.73 | $53.95 | $56.45 | $61.55 | $62.66 | $60.22 | $54.03 | $47.04 | $39.93 | $36.67 | $34.54 | $33.17 | $29.65 | $28.64 | $28.50 | $28.75 | |
| FCF/Share | $3.02 | $3.18 | $3.62 | $4.60 | $1.44 | $2.17 | $2.25 | $0.95 | $1.89 | $1.83 | $2.49 | $3.84 | $3.61 | $2.54 | $1.19 | $0.98 | $0.82 | $0.37 | $0.82 | |
| OCF/Share | $3.36 | $3.81 | $4.71 | $5.78 | $2.49 | $3.03 | $2.82 | $1.53 | $2.38 | $2.28 | $2.90 | $4.34 | $4.38 | $3.55 | $3.47 | $3.75 | $3.80 | $3.29 | $3.82 | |
| Cash/Share | $2.99 | $1.88 | $1.13 | $1.47 | $0.93 | $1.40 | $1.16 | $1.16 | $0.97 | $1.31 | $1.40 | $1.25 | $0.78 | $0.44 | $2.17 | $2.75 | $2.80 | $1.52 | $2.81 | |
| EBITDA/Share | $3.08 | $4.54 | $5.43 | $5.92 | $3.25 | $2.75 | $2.67 | $3.44 | $3.44 | $3.89 | $4.68 | $4.79 | $4.44 | $3.39 | $5.10 | $5.10 | $6.07 | $6.42 | $6.42 | |
| Debt/Share | $3.07 | $3.07 | $3.07 | $3.07 | $3.07 | $3.07 | $3.07 | $3.94 | $3.93 | $3.91 | $3.89 | $3.88 | $3.80 | $4.04 | $21.75 | $20.95 | $18.66 | $17.44 | $17.44 | |
| Net Debt/Share | $0.08 | $1.19 | $1.94 | $1.60 | $2.14 | $1.67 | $1.91 | $2.79 | $2.96 | $2.61 | $2.49 | $2.63 | $3.02 | $3.61 | $19.58 | $18.20 | $15.86 | $15.92 | $15.92 |
Academic Models
| Metric | Trend | Q4'12 | Q1'13 | Q2'13 | Q3'13 | Q4'13 | Q1'14 | Q2'14 | Q3'14 | Q4'14 | Q1'15 | Q2'15 | Q3'15 | Q4'15 | Q1'16 | Q2'16 | Q3'16 | Q4'16 | Q1'17 | Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Altman Z-Score | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.590 | |
| Altman Z-Prime | snapshot only | 2.587 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Piotroski F-Score | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | |
| Beneish M-Score | — | — | — | — | 5.15 | -1.97 | -2.12 | -1.75 | -2.44 | -2.47 | -2.54 | -3.14 | -3.12 | -2.92 | -1.80 | -1.87 | -1.86 | -1.68 | -1.684 | |
| Ohlson O-Score | snapshot only | -6.469 | ||||||||||||||||||
| ROIC (Greenblatt) | snapshot only | 13.14% | ||||||||||||||||||
| Net-Net WC | snapshot only | $-20.34 | ||||||||||||||||||
| EVA | snapshot only | $-53762666.88 | ||||||||||||||||||
Credit
| Metric | Trend | Q4'12 | Q1'13 | Q2'13 | Q3'13 | Q4'13 | Q1'14 | Q2'14 | Q3'14 | Q4'14 | Q1'15 | Q2'15 | Q3'15 | Q4'15 | Q1'16 | Q2'16 | Q3'16 | Q4'16 | Q1'17 | Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Credit Rating | snapshot only | BB | ||||||||||||||||||
| Credit Score | 87.64 | 89.52 | 90.01 | 90.91 | 88.18 | 90.41 | 90.25 | 85.19 | 89.15 | 88.91 | 93.75 | 93.49 | 93.72 | 88.01 | 49.04 | 47.42 | 39.08 | 40.50 | 40.504 | |
| Credit Grade | snapshot only | 12 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Credit Trend | snapshot only | -47.506 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Implied Spread (bps) | snapshot only | 475.000 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Industry Credit Rank | snapshot only | 21 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Sector Credit Rank | snapshot only | 45 | ||||||||||||||||||