RIVN NASDAQ
Rivian Automotive, Inc.
1W: -7.4%
1M: -26.1%
3M: -31.5%
YTD: -41.1%
1Y: -12.7%
3Y: -33.4%
$11.82
+0.39 (+3.41%)
After Hours: $11.79 (-0.03, -0.21%)
Weekly Expected Move ±4.2%
$11
$11
$12
$12
$13
Credit Risk of going bust: higher than 72% of companies Debt: 24.5% of company value Bonds: $278.2M held by 59 funds → details ▾
Of US companies ranked in the third-riskiest tenth, about 1 in 140 filed for bankruptcy within a year (2020-2025).
If the stock fell to about $0.39 (down 97%), Rivian Automotive, Inc. would be worth roughly what it owes.
Total debt $5.35B against a stock market value of $16.50B.
Distance to default 3.26 (Merton model): prices to 2026-10-26, balance sheet 2026-06-30, debt counted $2.22B (short-term plus half of long-term), stock volatility 68.8%; Altman Z -1.56. A ranking and a back-test, not a forecast.
Bond figures are fund-reported marks (SEC N-PORT) as of Jul 2026. How these are computed.
If the stock fell to about $0.39 (down 97%), Rivian Automotive, Inc. would be worth roughly what it owes.
Total debt $5.35B against a stock market value of $16.50B.
Distance to default 3.26 (Merton model): prices to 2026-10-26, balance sheet 2026-06-30, debt counted $2.22B (short-term plus half of long-term), stock volatility 68.8%; Altman Z -1.56. A ranking and a back-test, not a forecast.
Bond figures are fund-reported marks (SEC N-PORT) as of Jul 2026. How these are computed.
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Supply Chain
Oct Typical
⛈️
Stormy
-29.7% YTD avg
Midterm Year
⛈️
Stormy
-66.4% YTD avg
2026 Now
⛈️
Stormy
Below typical
20yr Avg YTD
-29.7%
Day 205 of 252
Midterm Year YTD
-66.4%
Presidential cycle avg
2026 YTD
-41.1%
Below 20yr avg
Typical Vol
67%
Annualized
Monthly Weather Forecast
Jan
20yr
⛈️
-7.6%
Midterm
⛈️
-32.2%
20% win
79% vol
Feb
20yr
⛈️
-29.6%
Midterm
⛈️
-47.9%
40% win
91% vol
Mar
20yr
⛈️
-28.8%
Midterm
⛈️
-51.1%
20% win
85% vol
Apr
20yr
⛈️
-37.4%
Midterm
⛈️
-69.1%
40% win
61% vol
May
20yr
💨
-31.5%
Midterm
⛈️
-70.5%
80% win
78% vol
Jun
20yr
💨
-24.4%
Midterm
⛈️
-75.0%
60% win
76% vol
Jul
20yr
💨
-11.3%
Midterm
⛈️
-65.9%
60% win
72% vol
Aug
20yr
⛈️
-15.3%
Midterm
⛈️
-68.2%
40% win
53% vol
Sep
20yr
⛈️
-19.1%
Midterm
⛈️
-68.0%
60% win
51% vol
Oct
20yr
⛈️
-30.1%
Midterm
⛈️
-66.0%
20% win
67% vol
Now:
-23.5%
Nov
20yr
💨
-21.1%
Midterm
⛈️
-68.8%
80% win
109% vol
Dec
20yr
💨
+1.9%
Midterm
⛈️
-42.5%
60% win
78% vol
Seasonality (20yr)
Updated: 2026-10-27
YTD: -41.1%