SIRI NASDAQ
Sirius XM Holdings Inc.
1W: +2.2%
1M: +6.0%
3M: -12.7%
YTD: +35.4%
1Y: +30.2%
3Y: -34.5%
5Y: -46.8%
$27.25
-0.17 (-0.60%)
After Hours: $27.36 (+0.11, +0.40%)
Weekly Expected Move ±2.5%
$26
$27
$28
$28
$29
Credit Risk of going bust: higher than 52% of companies Debt: 50.6% of company value Bonds: $911.7M held by 452 funds, 148 bp over Treasuries → details ▾
Of US companies ranked in the middle of the pack, about 1 in 580 filed for bankruptcy within a year (2020-2025).
If the stock fell to about $1.52 (down 94%), Sirius XM Holdings Inc. would be worth roughly what it owes.
Total debt $9.46B against a stock market value of $9.24B.
Distance to default 4.95 (Merton model): prices to 2026-10-26, balance sheet 2026-06-30, debt counted $4.73B (short-term plus half of long-term), stock volatility 32.8%; Altman Z'' 2.33. A ranking and a back-test, not a forecast.
Bond figures are fund-reported marks (SEC N-PORT) as of Jul 2026. How these are computed.
If the stock fell to about $1.52 (down 94%), Sirius XM Holdings Inc. would be worth roughly what it owes.
Total debt $9.46B against a stock market value of $9.24B.
Distance to default 4.95 (Merton model): prices to 2026-10-26, balance sheet 2026-06-30, debt counted $4.73B (short-term plus half of long-term), stock volatility 32.8%; Altman Z'' 2.33. A ranking and a back-test, not a forecast.
Bond figures are fund-reported marks (SEC N-PORT) as of Jul 2026. How these are computed.
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Supply Chain
Oct Typical
☀️
Sunny
+21.3% YTD avg
Midterm Year
☀️
Sunny
+15.9% YTD avg
2026 Now
☀️
Sunny
Above typical
20yr Avg YTD
+21.3%
Day 206 of 252
Midterm Year YTD
+15.9%
Presidential cycle avg
2026 YTD
+34.6%
Above 20yr avg
Typical Vol
54%
Annualized
Monthly Weather Forecast
Jan
20yr
💨
+5.0%
Midterm
☀️
+10.9%
70% win
39% vol
Feb
20yr
💨
+3.4%
Midterm
☀️
+9.8%
65% win
89% vol
Mar
20yr
💨
+7.5%
Midterm
☀️
+5.3%
40% win
59% vol
Apr
20yr
💨
+10.8%
Midterm
☀️
+15.5%
50% win
45% vol
May
20yr
🌫️
+8.9%
Midterm
☀️
+11.6%
50% win
44% vol
Jun
20yr
💨
+13.7%
Midterm
☀️
+9.4%
55% win
51% vol
Jul
20yr
💨
+16.7%
Midterm
☀️
+13.4%
65% win
58% vol
Aug
20yr
🌫️
+23.8%
Midterm
☀️
+10.4%
30% win
41% vol
Sep
20yr
⛈️
+19.8%
Midterm
☀️
+12.4%
35% win
46% vol
Oct
20yr
💨
+20.9%
Midterm
☀️
+18.9%
43% win
54% vol
Now:
+5.3%
Nov
20yr
💨
+24.9%
Midterm
☀️
+21.3%
80% win
49% vol
Dec
20yr
⛈️
-4.6%
Midterm
🌧️
-4.0%
30% win
40% vol
Seasonality (20yr)
Updated: 2026-10-27
YTD: +34.6%