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Not Investment Advice

STFC NASDAQ

State Auto Financial Corporation
1W: +0.5% 1M: +0.8% 3M: +1.2% 1Y: +193.7% 3Y: +54.5% 5Y: +95.4%
$52.01
Last traded 2022-02-28 — delisted
NASDAQ · Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty

Edge Score

Quantitative competitive moat analysis scoring five pillars of durable advantage — cost leadership, brand intangibles, switching costs, network effects, and efficient scale — using industry percentile rankings on a 0–100 scale.

WEAK EDGE
45.2 / 100
NoneWeakNarrowWide
Primary source: Cost Advantage  ·  ROIC: 0.8%
Cost Advantage ★
69
Intangibles
59
Switching Cost
24
Network Effect
38
Scale
33
The Edge Score quantifies a company's competitive moat using five pillars: Cost Advantage (20%, operating margin and SG&A efficiency vs industry peers), Intangible Assets (25%, gross margin premium, R&D intensity, brand pricing power), Switching Costs (25%, revenue stability, earnings consistency, customer retention proxied by operating leverage), Network Effects (15%, revenue growth with expanding margins, market share dominance), and Efficient Scale (15%, market concentration, ROIC sustainability). Each pillar is scored 0–100 using industry percentile rankings, then weighted into a composite. Wide ≥ 70, Narrow ≥ 55, Weak ≥ 40, None < 40. STFC shows a Weak competitive edge (45.2/100) — limited structural advantages that may face competitive pressure. The primary source of advantage is Cost Advantage. ROIC of 0.8% suggests modest returns relative to capital deployed.

Analyst Insights

Wall Street analyst consensus based on price targets and buy/sell/hold recommendations from institutional research coverage over the trailing 12 months.

Analyst Price Targets
Analyst Recommendations
Strong Buy: 0Buy: 1Hold: 5Sell: 0Strong Sell: 0
Rating Summary
ConsensusHold
Avg Target$—
Analysts0

InsiderStreet Scorecard

Proprietary multi-factor scorecard rating companies across seven fundamental dimensions — profitability, balance sheet strength, earnings quality, growth, value, momentum, and safety — each scored 0–100.

★ ★ ★ ★ ★ 31 Grade D
Profitability
30
Balance Sheet
83
Earnings Quality
45
Growth
70
Value
40
Momentum
43
Safety
100
Cash Flow
8
The InsiderStreet Scorecard rates companies across eight dimensions: Profitability (margins, ROA, ROE), Balance Sheet (leverage, liquidity, coverage), Earnings Quality (accruals, cash conversion), Growth (revenue and earnings trajectory), Value (P/E, P/B, earnings yield, Graham criteria), Momentum (revenue and earnings acceleration), Safety (Altman Z-Score risk adjustment), and Cash Flow (operating cash flow quality, FCF conversion, cash coverage). The overall score blends 35% quality, 35% value, and 30% momentum, with a penalty for distress-zone Altman scores. STFC scores highest in Safety (100/100) and lowest in Cash Flow (8/100). A grade of D flags significant fundamental concerns across multiple dimensions.

Risk & Quality Signals

Academic financial models used by institutional investors to assess bankruptcy risk, earnings manipulation, financial strength, and credit quality.

Altman-I Score
10.42
Safe Zone
Piotroski F-Score
4/9
✓ ✗ ✓ ✗ ✓ ✗ ✓ ✗ ✗
Beneish M-Score
-62.52
Unlikely Manipulator
Ohlson O-Score
-7.71
Bankruptcy prob: 0.0%
Low Risk
Credit Rating
A
Score: 71.0/100
Trend: Improving
Earnings Quality
25/100
OCF/NI: -0.38x
Accruals: 6.2%
The Altman-I Score is adapted for insurance companies, emphasizing return on equity, tangible net worth, and cash reserves alongside the standard equity and earnings components. STFC scores 10.42, placing it in the Safe Zone (safe > 3.0, distress < 1.5). Bankruptcy is statistically unlikely within the next two years. The Piotroski F-Score (2000) is a 9-point binary checklist — four profitability tests (positive ROA, positive cash flow, improving ROA, cash flow exceeding net income), three leverage tests (declining debt ratio, improving current ratio, no share dilution), and two efficiency tests (improving gross margin, improving asset turnover). Each pass scores 1 point. STFC scores 4/9, indicating moderate financial health — some areas of strength offset by weaknesses in others. The Beneish M-Score (1999) is an 8-variable model that detects earnings manipulation by comparing year-over-year changes in receivables, gross margins, asset quality, sales growth, depreciation, SG&A, leverage, and accruals. Scores above −1.78 statistically resemble past manipulators. STFC's score of -62.52 falls below this threshold, suggesting earnings are unlikely to be manipulated. The Ohlson O-Score (1980) is a 9-variable logistic regression that estimates bankruptcy probability using firm size, leverage, working capital, current ratio, profitability (ROA), cash flow coverage, negative equity flag, consecutive losses flag, and earnings trajectory. The raw score is converted to a probability via logistic transformation. STFC's implied 0.0% bankruptcy probability is well within safe territory. Our Credit Rating model scores companies on five weighted components — solvency (30%), earning power (25%), leverage (20%), liquidity (15%), and cash flow quality (10%) — then blends the absolute score with sector and industry peer rankings. For companies with large buyback programs, equity is adjusted by adding back cumulative 5-year repurchases (capped at 80% of FCF generated) to avoid penalizing shareholder-friendly capital allocation. STFC receives an estimated rating of A (score: 71.0/100), with a improving trend. The Earnings Quality score measures how well reported earnings are backed by real cash. It evaluates the operating cash flow to net income ratio (OCF/NI ≥ 1.0 means every dollar of earnings is cash-backed) and the accruals ratio (the gap between earnings and cash flow relative to assets — lower is better). STFC's score of 25/100 is low — reported earnings may not be fully supported by cash flows.

Valuation

Key valuation multiples comparing the stock's market price to its earnings, revenue, book value, and cash flows. Lower multiples may indicate relative undervaluation versus peers.

P/E
173.37x
PEG
0.14x
P/S
0.00x
P/B
2.28x
P/FCF
-82.38x
P/OCF
—
EV/EBITDA
1.12x
EV/Revenue
0.07x
EV/EBIT
1.21x
EV/FCF
-4.00x
Earnings Yield
3.18%
FCF Yield
-1.21%
Shareholder Yield
0.02%
Graham Number
$28.02
Equity-based multiples (P/E, P/B, P/FCF) compare the stock price to per-share fundamentals and are affected by capital structure. Enterprise value multiples (EV/EBITDA, EV/Revenue, EV/FCF) strip out debt and cash, making them more useful for cross-company comparisons regardless of how companies are financed. The Graham Number — √(22.5 × EPS × Book Value) — is Benjamin Graham's formula for the maximum price a defensive investor should pay. At 173.4x earnings, STFC is priced for high growth expectations. Graham's intrinsic value formula yields $28.02 per share, 86% below the current price.

DuPont Decomposition (5-Factor)

The 5-factor DuPont framework breaks Return on Equity into its component drivers — tax efficiency, interest burden, operating profitability, asset utilization, and financial leverage — to reveal what truly drives shareholder returns.

Tax Burden
0.833
NI / EBT
×
Interest Burden
0.951
EBT / EBIT
×
EBIT Margin
0.055
EBIT / Rev
×
Asset Turnover
1.029
Rev / Assets
×
Equity Multiplier
1.697
Assets / Equity
=
ROE
7.6%
The 5-factor DuPont identity decomposes ROE as: Tax Burden × Interest Burden × EBIT Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier = ROE. This reveals whether returns are driven by operating performance, financial leverage, or tax efficiency — three very different sources of profitability. STFC's ROE of 7.6% is driven by Asset Turnover (1.029), indicating efficient use of assets to generate revenue.

Graham-Dodd Adjusted Valuation

Our adaptation of Graham's growth formula (Fair P/E = 8.5 + 2g) from The Intelligent Investor. The classic version relies on analyst growth projections, which can be unreliable. This adjusted model substitutes the company's realized 3-year EPS CAGR — a backward-looking, verifiable measure of actual earnings power — grounding the valuation in demonstrated performance rather than forecasts.

Two adjustments we make, and why. Growth is capped at 15%. Graham defined g as expected growth over the next seven to ten years, not last year's rate. Across US companies since 1994 the median realized 7-year EPS growth is 5–8% regardless of how fast a company grew beforehand, and of 4,457 company-quarters that grew faster than 200%, none sustained it. Uncapped, the formula assigned fair multiples in the hundreds to companies that had never held that rate — and scored worse than simply reading the P/E. Capped, it carries real information. The verdict has three states, not two. Tested over 377,249 stock-months, this ratio only separates outcomes at its extremes: below 0.25 beat the universe by 1.3 points a year, above 3.0 lagged by 2.7, and everything in between sat inside a one-point band. Rather than call two-thirds of the market "undervalued" on a threshold of 1.0, we say Neutral where the model cannot tell — which is most of the time.

Adj. Growth Rate
15.00%
Fair P/E
38.50x
Intrinsic Value
$62.31
Price/Value
0.82x
Margin of Safety
18.23%
Premium
-18.23%
Assessment
Neutral
Graham's classic formula uses analyst-projected growth to estimate a fair P/E (8.5 + 2g). Our adjusted version replaces that projection with STFC's realized 15.0% 3-year EPS CAGR, capped at 15% — demonstrated performance rather than forecasts, held to a rate companies have historically sustained. STFC actually compounded EPS at 30.8% over three years; the model uses 15%, the highest rate it will extrapolate — of 4,457 company-quarters that grew faster than 200%, none sustained it over the following seven years. STFC trades at a -18% premium to its adjusted intrinsic value of $62.31, suggesting the market is pricing in future growth beyond what historical earnings support. The adjusted fair P/E of 38.5x compares to the current market P/E of 173.4x.

Profitability Trends

Historical profitability ratios tracking how efficiently the company converts revenue into returns for shareholders over time.

Leverage & Solvency Trends

Debt and liquidity metrics showing the company's financial leverage and ability to meet short-term and long-term obligations.

Efficiency & Working Capital Trends

Operating efficiency metrics measuring how quickly the company converts inventory to sales, collects receivables, and manages its cash conversion cycle.

Growth Trends (YoY %)

Year-over-year growth rates for key financial metrics, showing the trajectory of revenue, earnings, and cash flow generation.

Earnings Stability

R-squared of linear regression measuring how predictably revenue, earnings, and margins follow a trend over the trailing 5 years. 1.0 = perfectly predictable; lower values indicate erratic or cyclical behavior.

Monte Carlo Price Simulation

Geometric Brownian Motion with 1,000 antithetic paths over 1 year, seeded from 1800 days of historical volatility. Percentile bands show the range of statistically plausible outcomes — this is a statistical model, not a forecast.

Current Price
$52.01
Median 1Y
$51.06
5th Pctile
$20.64
95th Pctile
$126.42
Ann. Volatility
53.7%
25th–75th percentile 5th–95th percentile Median path Historical
All Ratios & Metrics

Complete fundamental data with up to 20 periods of history, sparkline trends, and current values across 13 categories and 130+ financial metrics.

Profitability
Metric Trend Q4'16 Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21 Q3'21 Current
ROE 2.4% 1.5% 5.2% 3.1% -1.2% -1.0% -1.3% 3.6% 1.5% 7.4% 5.9% 3.3% 9.8% -8.7% -3.9% -3.8% 1.3% 14.3% 10.2% 7.6% 7.55%
ROA 6.7% 4.8% 15.2% 8.1% -3.6% -3.2% -4.2% 10.4% 4.6% 25.2% 20.8% 12.3% 31.9% -23.8% -10.0% -19.1% 6.9% 58.6% 5.5% 4.5% 4.45%
ROIC 2.8% 2.2% 5.4% 3.7% -1.4% -1.1% -1.5% 3.6% 2.1% 7.3% 5.7% 3.4% 9.1% -8.0% -3.7% 2.7% 7.0% -4.5% -1.8% 0.8% 0.80%
ROCE -4.1% -3.5% -5.6% -7.0% -4.6% -4.9% -4.6% -5.4% -1.1% -5.0% -4.1% -2.3% -6.9% 5.9% 2.8% 1.4% -34.7% -1.8% 4.2% 2.9% 2.93%
Gross Margin 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.00%
Operating Margin 9.4% -1.1% 3.8% -2.7% 10.8% -0.5% 2.8% 12.2% -11.9% 17.1% -1.9% 4.2% 11.3% -66.7% 9.9% 4.1% 0.2% 1.6% 1.3% -6.3% -6.30%
Net Margin 8.9% -1.2% 2.5% -2.7% -1.6% -0.6% 1.8% 9.7% -9.3% 13.5% -1.8% 3.4% 8.9% -53.5% 7.9% 3.0% 18.6% 0.9% 0.1% -3.7% -3.66%
EBITDA Margin 10.3% -0.2% 4.6% -1.6% 11.5% 0.4% 3.3% 12.8% -11.0% 18.0% -1.6% 4.9% 12.2% -65.9% 10.8% 4.6% 24.1% 2.1% 1.8% -6.1% -6.07%
FCF Margin 8.1% 6.6% 6.4% 7.9% 4.8% 3.8% 1.8% -1.7% -1.1% -2.5% -4.4% -2.1% -3.9% -4.2% -1.5% 0.8% 3.3% 3.5% 3.3% -1.7% -1.65%
OCF Margin 8.1% 6.6% 6.4% 7.9% 4.8% 3.8% 1.8% -1.7% -1.1% -2.5% -4.4% -2.1% -3.9% -4.2% -1.5% 0.8% 3.3% 3.5% 3.3% -1.7% -1.65%
ROE 3Y Avg snapshot only 2.30%
ROE 5Y Avg snapshot only 2.72%
ROA 3Y Avg snapshot only -3.94%
ROIC Economic snapshot only -0.92%
Cash ROA snapshot only -0.89%
NOPAT Margin snapshot only -0.58%
Pretax Margin snapshot only 5.19%
R&D / Revenue snapshot only 0.00%
SGA / Revenue snapshot only 0.00%
SBC / Revenue snapshot only 0.00%
Valuation
Metric Trend Q4'16 Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21 Q3'21 Current
P/E Ratio 53.88 82.74 23.17 40.11 -115.12 -139.89 -113.87 42.27 114.62 22.48 29.16 47.19 15.62 -15.85 -21.81 -16.93 59.99 6.70 7.86 31.48 173.367
P/S Ratio 0.81 0.82 0.77 0.78 0.87 0.87 0.94 0.97 1.15 1.10 1.15 1.09 0.97 0.97 0.58 0.43 0.53 0.52 0.46 1.36 0.000
P/B Ratio 1.27 1.28 1.20 1.23 1.40 1.43 1.53 1.53 1.79 1.61 1.66 1.51 1.42 1.40 0.85 0.65 0.78 0.90 0.78 2.36 2.281
P/FCF 9.97 12.41 12.10 9.87 18.14 22.75 53.42 -57.64 -109.49 -43.66 -26.37 -52.78 -24.87 -23.14 -38.07 56.31 16.04 15.13 13.82 -82.38 -82.375
P/OCF 9.97 12.41 12.10 9.87 18.14 22.75 53.42 — — — — — — — — 56.31 16.04 15.13 13.82 — —
EV/EBITDA 30.59 42.18 17.63 23.58 24.37 23.80 28.50 14.24 55.61 16.21 21.14 31.77 11.61 -14.80 -23.94 49.40 -43.70 -7.06 -10.27 1.12 1.116
EV/Revenue 0.86 0.87 0.82 0.79 0.89 0.91 0.99 1.02 1.20 1.13 1.21 1.16 1.00 1.01 0.59 -1.11 -0.88 -0.76 -0.87 0.07 0.066
EV/EBIT 17.89 21.05 12.23 9.49 15.34 15.15 17.16 15.36 82.22 17.99 23.68 38.59 12.59 -13.55 -17.86 36.85 -67.95 -7.51 -10.95 1.21 1.211
EV/FCF 10.59 13.24 12.91 9.96 18.59 23.89 56.76 -60.78 -114.13 -45.16 -27.71 -55.88 -25.67 -24.20 -38.44 -144.68 -26.49 -21.81 -25.85 -4.00 -3.999
Earnings Yield 1.9% 1.2% 4.3% 2.5% -0.9% -0.7% -0.9% 2.4% 0.9% 4.4% 3.4% 2.1% 6.4% -6.3% -4.6% -5.9% 1.7% 14.9% 12.7% 3.2% 3.18%
FCF Yield 10.0% 8.1% 8.3% 10.1% 5.5% 4.4% 1.9% -1.7% -0.9% -2.3% -3.8% -1.9% -4.0% -4.3% -2.6% 1.8% 6.2% 6.6% 7.2% -1.2% -1.21%
PEG Ratio snapshot only 0.140
Price/Tangible Book snapshot only 2.364
EV/Gross Profit snapshot only 0.066
Shareholder Yield snapshot only 0.02%
Graham Number snapshot only $28.02
Leverage & Solvency
Metric Trend Q4'16 Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21 Q3'21 Current
Current Ratio 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.02 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.09 0.79 0.60 0.37 — — —
Quick Ratio 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.02 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.09 0.79 0.60 0.37 — — —
Debt/Equity 2.98 2.98 2.99 3.02 3.11 2.71 2.72 2.60 2.79 2.52 2.49 2.45 2.34 2.67 2.45 0.13 0.24 0.13 0.12 0.13 0.128
Net Debt/Equity 0.08 0.09 0.08 0.01 0.03 0.07 0.10 0.08 0.08 0.06 0.08 0.09 0.05 0.06 0.01 -2.30 -2.06 -2.21 -2.25 -2.25 -2.249
Debt/Assets 8.67 9.31 8.89 7.61 9.51 9.10 9.73 9.01 8.65 8.77 8.59 9.59 7.91 6.00 5.03 0.90 2.60 1.94 0.04 0.04 0.040
Debt/EBITDA 67.67 92.42 41.26 57.15 52.82 42.90 47.52 22.96 82.96 24.50 30.20 48.66 18.55 -26.93 -68.67 -3.85 8.22 0.68 0.87 1.24 1.243
Net Debt/EBITDA 1.81 2.66 1.11 0.23 0.59 1.14 1.68 0.74 2.26 0.54 1.02 1.76 0.36 -0.65 -0.23 68.63 -70.16 -11.96 -15.76 -21.87 -21.869
Interest Coverage 12.22 10.41 16.74 20.31 13.95 13.84 12.76 15.23 3.26 15.68 13.76 7.98 22.84 -19.12 -9.08 -8.85 4.06 36.65 29.77 20.57 20.568
Equity Multiplier 0.34 0.32 0.34 0.40 0.33 0.30 0.28 0.29 0.32 0.29 0.29 0.26 0.30 0.44 0.49 0.14 0.09 0.06 3.16 3.23 3.233
Debt Service Coverage snapshot only 22.318
Cash to Debt snapshot only 18.588
FCF to Debt snapshot only -0.224
Efficiency & Turnover
Metric Trend Q4'16 Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21 Q3'21 Current
Asset Turnover 4.48 4.85 4.57 4.18 4.78 5.17 5.10 4.53 4.62 5.16 5.24 5.30 5.14 3.90 3.76 7.48 7.82 7.49 0.93 1.03 1.029
Inventory Turnover — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — —
Receivables Turnover 16.83 16.75 13.40 15.21 17.97 17.45 15.16 15.54 15.98 16.60 13.18 13.56 14.60 11.42 9.43 11.47 13.37 13.61 12.00 11.90 11.902
Payables Turnover — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — —
DSO 22 22 27 24 20 21 24 23 23 22 28 27 25 32 39 32 27 27 30 31 30.7 days
DIO — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — —
DPO — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — —
Cash Conversion Cycle — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — —
Fixed Asset Turnover snapshot only 436.158
Cash Velocity snapshot only 0.730
Capital Intensity snapshot only 1.863
Growth (YoY)
Metric Trend Q4'16 Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21 Q3'21 Current
Revenue 2.7% 2.8% 2.4% 2.6% 1.1% -0.7% -2.2% -3.4% -10.4% -6.0% -5.1% -5.1% 10.6% -4.7% 2.6% 7.9% 5.2% 33.7% 22.9% 17.8% 17.83%
Net Income -59.0% -52.9% 20.5% 4.3% -1.5% -1.6% -1.2% 14.1% 2.2% 8.4% 5.6% -4.1% 5.8% -2.2% -1.7% -2.2% -85.0% 2.7% 3.7% 3.0% 2.99%
EPS -59.8% -53.0% 19.9% 4.3% -1.5% -1.6% -1.2% 10.5% 2.2% 8.2% 5.6% -5.0% 5.7% -2.2% -1.7% -2.2% -85.1% 2.7% 3.7% 3.0% 2.99%
FCF -24.2% -22.6% -31.5% 8.6% -40.2% -42.3% -73.1% -1.2% -1.2% -1.6% -3.4% -16.9% -3.1% -58.5% 64.1% 1.4% 1.9% 2.1% 3.7% -3.5% -3.53%
EBITDA -55.5% -49.7% 1.2% 4.4% 31.8% 84.5% -26.9% 1.1% -46.9% 71.7% 56.0% -51.8% 3.4% -1.9% -1.4% -1.7% -75.5% 3.1% 5.2% 4.1% 4.10%
Op. Income -66.0% -63.5% 2.6% 5.5% 59.1% 1.6% -29.3% 1.6% -52.7% 1.0% 80.2% -56.2% 5.0% -2.1% -1.7% -2.1% -1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 72.9% 72.91%
OCF Growth snapshot only -3.53%
Asset Growth snapshot only 21.87%
Equity Growth snapshot only 1.14%
Debt Growth snapshot only 0.08%
Shares Change snapshot only 0.00%
Growth (CAGR)
Metric Trend Q4'16 Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21 Q3'21 Current
Revenue 3Y 6.8% 6.8% 6.7% 6.9% 6.6% 4.8% 3.3% 1.4% -2.4% -1.4% -1.7% -2.0% 0.1% -3.8% -1.6% -0.4% 1.4% 6.2% 6.1% 6.4% 6.45%
Revenue 5Y -2.0% -0.6% 0.9% 2.6% 4.3% 3.9% 3.8% 3.5% 2.0% 2.6% 2.4% 2.3% 3.7% 0.6% 1.4% 1.3% 1.6% 4.1% 3.7% 3.6% 3.63%
EPS 3Y -30.5% -41.4% -11.0% -22.5% — — — -35.6% -37.8% 27.6% 1.8% — 58.6% — — — — — — 30.8% 30.85%
EPS 5Y — — 3.8% -21.8% — — — -14.7% -27.5% -2.4% -5.3% -13.4% -5.2% — — — -24.9% 33.1% 1.1% — —
Net Income 3Y -29.8% -41.2% -10.1% -22.1% — — — -34.8% -37.0% 29.7% 1.9% — 60.9% — — — — — — 31.5% 31.54%
Net Income 5Y — — 4.9% -21.1% — — — -13.6% -26.8% -1.2% -4.3% -12.4% -4.0% — — — -23.9% 34.8% 1.1% — —
EBITDA 3Y -22.2% -31.3% -7.2% -14.6% 5.7% 1.4% -2.8% 11.7% -32.2% 16.8% 35.1% 75.4% 45.6% — — — -16.9% 49.5% 42.4% -0.1% -0.14%
EBITDA 5Y — — 24.6% -6.8% 18.6% 3.3% -4.0% 2.9% -19.9% 0.6% -1.9% -9.0% 22.5% — — — -19.6% 25.4% 35.5% 62.0% 62.00%
Gross Profit 3Y 6.8% 6.8% 6.7% 6.9% 6.6% 4.8% 3.3% 1.4% -2.4% -1.4% -1.7% -2.0% 0.1% -3.8% -1.6% -0.4% 1.4% 6.2% 6.1% 6.4% 6.45%
Gross Profit 5Y -2.0% -0.6% 0.9% 2.6% 4.3% 3.9% 3.8% 3.5% 2.0% 2.6% 2.4% 2.3% 3.7% 0.6% 1.4% 1.3% 1.6% 4.1% 3.7% 3.6% 3.63%
Op. Income 3Y -29.3% -41.0% -9.5% -19.4% 6.9% 3.2% -0.6% 17.7% -36.5% 24.3% 65.8% — 65.5% — — — — 17.2% -8.1% — —
Op. Income 5Y — — 28.2% -10.2% 21.2% 2.3% -4.9% 3.6% -23.2% 1.5% -1.1% -9.8% 28.3% — — — — 9.0% 14.4% — —
FCF 3Y 16.3% 11.8% 11.5% 13.9% -3.5% -25.2% -43.3% — — — — — — — — -54.1% -10.3% 2.8% 31.7% — —
FCF 5Y 21.4% — — — — -4.1% -13.5% — — — — — — — — -40.3% -20.0% -13.5% -15.9% — —
OCF 3Y 16.3% 11.8% 11.5% 13.9% -3.5% -25.2% -43.3% — — — — — — — — -54.1% -10.3% 2.8% 31.7% — —
OCF 5Y 21.4% — — — — -4.1% -13.5% — — — — — — — — -40.3% -20.0% -13.5% -15.9% — —
Assets 3Y 13.2% 11.6% 9.8% 15.7% -8.5% -5.7% -11.7% -8.9% -6.3% -4.2% -5.3% -9.4% -2.5% 10.1% 13.8% -27.6% -31.1% -37.1% 1.4% 1.3% 1.31%
Assets 5Y -10.4% 6.0% 8.8% 12.5% 10.1% 6.5% 0.9% 4.8% 4.5% 4.4% 2.7% 1.0% -5.4% 5.0% 5.7% -16.5% -21.8% -26.5% 58.2% 56.9% 56.91%
Equity 3Y 4.3% 3.3% 2.7% 2.4% 0.3% -2.1% -1.2% -0.2% -2.6% -0.5% 0.5% 1.3% 2.5% -1.3% 0.6% 1.7% 4.7% 4.6% 4.9% 3.2% 3.18%
Book Value 3Y 3.4% 2.8% 1.7% 1.9% -0.3% -3.0% -2.6% -1.5% -3.9% -2.1% -0.9% -0.2% 1.1% -2.7% -0.6% 0.1% 3.1% 3.0% 3.8% 2.6% 2.63%
Dividend 3Y — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — —
Growth Quality
Metric Trend Q4'16 Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21 Q3'21 Current
Revenue Stability 0.06 0.00 0.15 0.60 0.84 0.87 0.86 0.79 0.29 0.42 0.36 0.30 0.35 0.02 0.12 0.07 0.15 0.16 0.27 0.35 0.347
Earnings Stability 0.38 0.27 0.00 0.35 0.13 0.34 0.28 0.24 0.64 0.24 0.21 0.21 0.08 0.50 0.41 0.44 0.00 0.06 0.10 0.09 0.090
Margin Stability 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000
Rev. Growth Consistency 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.50 0.00 0.50 0.50 1.00 0.50 1.00 1.00 1.000
Earn. Growth Consistency 0.00 0.00 0.50 0.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.500
FCF Positive Streak 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Earnings Persistence 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.50 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.98 0.50 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.50 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.200
Earnings Smoothness 0.16 0.28 0.00 — — — — 0.87 — — — 0.96 0.00 — — — 0.00 — — — —
ROE Trend -0.07 -0.06 -0.01 -0.03 -0.05 -0.03 -0.04 0.03 0.01 0.07 0.04 -0.00 0.09 -0.12 -0.06 -0.07 -0.04 0.14 0.09 0.08 0.078
Gross Margin Trend 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000
FCF Margin Trend -0.01 -0.03 -0.04 -0.01 -0.05 -0.04 -0.06 -0.09 -0.07 -0.08 -0.08 -0.05 -0.06 -0.05 -0.00 0.03 0.06 0.07 0.06 -0.01 -0.010
Sustainable Growth Rate 2.4% 1.5% 5.2% 3.1% — — — 3.6% 1.5% 7.4% 5.9% 3.3% 9.8% — — — 1.3% 14.3% 10.2% 7.6% 7.55%
Internal Growth Rate 7.2% 5.0% 18.0% 8.8% — — — 11.6% 4.9% 33.7% 26.2% 14.0% 46.8% — — — 7.4% 1.4% 5.8% 4.7% 4.66%
Cash Flow Quality
Metric Trend Q4'16 Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21 Q3'21 Current
OCF/Net Income 5.40 6.67 1.92 4.07 -6.35 -6.15 -2.13 -0.73 -1.05 -0.51 -1.11 -0.89 -0.63 0.69 0.57 -0.30 3.74 0.44 0.57 -0.38 -0.382
FCF/OCF 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000
FCF/Net Income snapshot only -0.382
OCF/EBITDA snapshot only -0.279
CapEx/Revenue 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.00%
CapEx/Depreciation snapshot only 0.000
Accruals Ratio -0.29 -0.27 -0.14 -0.25 -0.26 -0.23 -0.13 0.18 0.10 0.38 0.44 0.23 0.52 -0.08 -0.04 -0.25 -0.19 0.33 0.02 0.06 0.062
Sloan Accruals snapshot only 1.509
Earnings Quality Score snapshot only 0.250
Dividends & Buybacks
Metric Trend Q4'16 Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21 Q3'21 Current
Dividend Yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.77%
Dividend/Share $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.40
Payout Ratio 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% — — — 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% — — — 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.00%
FCF Payout Ratio 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% — — — — — — — — 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% — —
Total Payout Ratio 1.0% 1.4% 0.4% 0.7% — — — 1.0% 1.6% 0.9% 1.2% 1.7% 0.7% — — — 6.9% 0.3% 0.4% 0.6% 0.56%
Div. Increase Streak — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — —
Chowder Number — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — —
Buyback Yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.02%
Net Buyback Yield -0.2% -0.2% -0.3% -0.3% -0.8% -1.5% -1.6% -1.2% -1.0% -0.4% -0.3% -0.6% -0.4% -0.5% -0.5% -0.5% -0.4% -0.3% -0.3% -0.3% -0.31%
Total Shareholder Return -0.2% -0.2% -0.3% -0.3% -0.8% -1.5% -1.6% -1.2% -1.0% -0.4% -0.3% -0.6% -0.4% -0.5% -0.5% -0.5% -0.4% -0.3% -0.3% -0.3% -0.31%
DuPont Factors
Metric Trend Q4'16 Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21 Q3'21 Current
Tax Burden (NI/EBT) 1.09 1.36 1.00 0.97 -0.32 -0.25 -0.37 0.38 0.99 0.83 0.83 0.88 0.82 0.78 0.73 0.76 0.91 0.80 0.77 0.83 0.833
Interest Burden (EBT/EBIT) 0.29 0.17 0.49 0.24 0.41 0.42 0.39 0.91 0.69 0.94 0.93 0.87 0.96 1.05 1.11 1.11 0.75 0.97 0.97 0.95 0.951
EBIT Margin 0.05 0.04 0.07 0.08 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.01 0.06 0.05 0.03 0.08 -0.07 -0.03 -0.03 0.01 0.10 0.08 0.05 0.055
Asset Turnover 4.48 4.85 4.57 4.18 4.78 5.17 5.10 4.53 4.62 5.16 5.24 5.30 5.14 3.90 3.76 7.48 7.82 7.49 0.93 1.03 1.029
Equity Multiplier 0.35 0.32 0.34 0.38 0.34 0.31 0.31 0.34 0.32 0.29 0.28 0.27 0.31 0.36 0.39 0.20 0.19 0.24 1.86 1.70 1.697
Per Share
Metric Trend Q4'16 Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21 Q3'21 Current
EPS (Diluted TTM) $0.50 $0.33 $1.11 $0.65 $-0.25 $-0.20 $-0.26 $0.72 $0.30 $1.46 $1.20 $0.69 $1.99 $-1.75 $-0.82 $-0.81 $0.30 $2.94 $2.18 $1.62 $1.62
Book Value/Share $21.12 $21.51 $21.52 $21.26 $20.83 $19.93 $19.52 $19.94 $18.99 $20.39 $21.11 $21.45 $21.82 $19.83 $21.10 $21.31 $22.80 $21.79 $21.84 $21.56 $-45.11
Tangible Book/Share $21.12 $21.51 $21.52 $21.26 $20.83 $19.93 $19.52 $19.94 $18.99 $20.39 $21.11 $21.45 $21.82 $19.83 $21.10 $21.31 $22.80 $21.79 $21.84 $21.56 $21.56
Revenue/Share $33.30 $33.67 $33.36 $33.73 $33.60 $32.88 $31.95 $31.52 $29.54 $30.00 $30.32 $29.64 $31.99 $28.71 $30.60 $31.75 $33.42 $37.62 $37.00 $37.41 $33.42
FCF/Share $2.69 $2.21 $2.13 $2.66 $1.61 $1.26 $0.56 $-0.53 $-0.31 $-0.75 $-1.33 $-0.61 $-1.25 $-1.20 $-0.47 $0.24 $1.11 $1.30 $1.24 $-0.62 $1.11
OCF/Share $2.69 $2.21 $2.13 $2.66 $1.61 $1.26 $0.56 $-0.53 $-0.31 $-0.75 $-1.33 $-0.61 $-1.25 $-1.20 $-0.47 $0.24 $1.11 $1.30 $1.24 $-0.62 $1.11
Cash/Share $61.33 $62.34 $62.54 $63.93 $63.96 $52.64 $51.12 $50.25 $51.49 $50.32 $50.75 $50.63 $50.13 $51.60 $51.53 $51.87 $52.55 $50.85 $51.87 $51.23 $52.55
EBITDA/Share $0.93 $0.69 $1.56 $1.12 $1.22 $1.26 $1.12 $2.26 $0.64 $2.10 $1.74 $1.08 $2.76 $-1.96 $-0.75 $-0.72 $0.67 $4.02 $3.12 $2.22 $2.22
Debt/Share $63.02 $64.18 $64.26 $64.19 $64.69 $54.08 $53.00 $51.92 $52.94 $51.45 $52.53 $52.53 $51.13 $52.87 $51.70 $2.75 $5.51 $2.74 $2.73 $2.76 $2.76
Net Debt/Share $1.68 $1.84 $1.72 $0.26 $0.72 $1.44 $1.87 $1.66 $1.44 $1.13 $1.78 $1.90 $1.00 $1.27 $0.17 $-49.11 $-47.04 $-48.12 $-49.14 $-48.48 $-48.48
Academic Models
Metric Trend Q4'16 Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21 Q3'21 Current
Altman-I Score — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — 10.419
Altman Z-Prime snapshot only 7.209
Piotroski F-Score 4 4 5 6 4 5 3 3 3 4 5 1 5 4 3 5 6 6 4 4 4
Beneish M-Score -3.96 -3.79 -3.20 -3.76 -3.88 -3.77 -3.49 -1.46 -1.83 -0.68 -0.07 -1.26 0.20 -1.27 -2.27 -4.41 -5.32 1.15 -2.73 -62.52 -62.523
Ohlson O-Score snapshot only -7.714
ROIC (Greenblatt) snapshot only 3.76%
Net-Net WC snapshot only $6.13
Credit
Metric Trend Q4'16 Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21 Q3'21 Current
Credit Rating snapshot only A
Credit Score 48.72 48.16 48.94 49.46 46.96 48.50 48.00 47.62 38.89 48.83 47.07 45.07 50.03 36.35 36.19 45.48 52.88 86.92 87.53 70.98 70.977
Credit Grade snapshot only 6
Credit Trend snapshot only 25.499
Implied Spread (bps) snapshot only 150.000
Industry Credit Rank snapshot only 33
Sector Credit Rank snapshot only 69

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