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Not Investment Advice

TCFC NASDAQ

The Community Financial Corporation
1W: -3.9% 1M: +3.5% 3M: -18.2% 1Y: -26.1% 3Y: +22.2% 5Y: -17.3%
$27.09
Last traded 2023-06-30 — delisted
NASDAQ · Financial Services · Banks - Regional · $153.6M mcap · 5M float · 0.481% daily turnover

Edge Score

Quantitative competitive moat analysis scoring five pillars of durable advantage — cost leadership, brand intangibles, switching costs, network effects, and efficient scale — using industry percentile rankings on a 0–100 scale.

NARROW EDGE
57.6 / 100
NoneWeakNarrowWide
Primary source: Switching Costs  ·  ROIC: -21.2%
Cost Advantage
66
Intangibles
70
Switching Cost
72
Network Effect
44
Scale
15
The Edge Score quantifies a company's competitive moat using five pillars: Cost Advantage (20%, operating margin and SG&A efficiency vs industry peers), Intangible Assets (25%, gross margin premium, R&D intensity, brand pricing power), Switching Costs (25%, revenue stability, earnings consistency, customer retention proxied by operating leverage), Network Effects (15%, revenue growth with expanding margins, market share dominance), and Efficient Scale (15%, market concentration, ROIC sustainability). Each pillar is scored 0–100 using industry percentile rankings, then weighted into a composite. Wide ≥ 70, Narrow ≥ 55, Weak ≥ 40, None < 40. TCFC has a Narrow competitive edge (57.6/100) — meaningful but not impregnable advantages over competitors. The primary source of advantage is Switching Costs. Negative ROIC of -21.2% indicates the company is currently destroying value, though this may reflect a growth investment phase.

Analyst Insights

Wall Street analyst consensus based on price targets and buy/sell/hold recommendations from institutional research coverage over the trailing 12 months.

Analyst Price Targets
Analyst Recommendations
Strong Buy: 0Buy: 1Hold: 2Sell: 0Strong Sell: 0
Rating Summary
ConsensusHold
Avg Target$—
Analysts0

InsiderStreet Scorecard

Proprietary multi-factor scorecard rating companies across seven fundamental dimensions — profitability, balance sheet strength, earnings quality, growth, value, momentum, and safety — each scored 0–100.

★ ★ ★ ★ ★ 60 Grade A+
Profitability
73
Balance Sheet
73
Earnings Quality
86
Growth
59
Value
88
Momentum
81
Safety
65
Cash Flow
74
The InsiderStreet Scorecard rates companies across eight dimensions: Profitability (margins, ROA, ROE), Balance Sheet (leverage, liquidity, coverage), Earnings Quality (accruals, cash conversion), Growth (revenue and earnings trajectory), Value (P/E, P/B, earnings yield, Graham criteria), Momentum (revenue and earnings acceleration), Safety (Altman Z-Score risk adjustment), and Cash Flow (operating cash flow quality, FCF conversion, cash coverage). The overall score blends 35% quality, 35% value, and 30% momentum, with a penalty for distress-zone Altman scores. TCFC scores highest in Value (88/100) and lowest in Growth (59/100). An overall grade of A+ places TCFC among the highest-quality companies in its peer group.

Risk & Quality Signals

Academic financial models used by institutional investors to assess bankruptcy risk, earnings manipulation, financial strength, and credit quality.

Altman-B Score
2.68
Grey Zone
Piotroski F-Score
6/9
✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✗ ✓
Beneish M-Score
2.60
Possible Manipulator
Ohlson O-Score
-4.88
Bankruptcy prob: 0.8%
Low Risk
Credit Rating
AA-
Score: 82.0/100
Trend: Improving
Earnings Quality
100/100
OCF/NI: 1.12x
Accruals: -0.1%
The Altman-B Score replaces the traditional Z-Score for banks and financial institutions. It weights equity-to-assets, return on assets, retained earnings, market value coverage, and cash reserves — metrics that better capture bank solvency than manufacturing-oriented ratios. TCFC scores 2.68, placing it in the Grey Zone (safe > 3.0, distress < 1.5). Financial distress is possible and warrants monitoring. The Piotroski F-Score (2000) is a 9-point binary checklist — four profitability tests (positive ROA, positive cash flow, improving ROA, cash flow exceeding net income), three leverage tests (declining debt ratio, improving current ratio, no share dilution), and two efficiency tests (improving gross margin, improving asset turnover). Each pass scores 1 point. TCFC scores 6/9, indicating moderate financial health — some areas of strength offset by weaknesses in others. The Beneish M-Score (1999) is an 8-variable model that detects earnings manipulation by comparing year-over-year changes in receivables, gross margins, asset quality, sales growth, depreciation, SG&A, leverage, and accruals. Scores above −1.78 statistically resemble past manipulators. TCFC's score of 2.60 exceeds the −1.78 red flag threshold — this does not confirm manipulation but indicates the earnings profile resembles past manipulators statistically. The Ohlson O-Score (1980) is a 9-variable logistic regression that estimates bankruptcy probability using firm size, leverage, working capital, current ratio, profitability (ROA), cash flow coverage, negative equity flag, consecutive losses flag, and earnings trajectory. The raw score is converted to a probability via logistic transformation. TCFC's implied 0.8% bankruptcy probability is well within safe territory. Our Credit Rating model scores companies on five weighted components — solvency (30%), earning power (25%), leverage (20%), liquidity (15%), and cash flow quality (10%) — then blends the absolute score with sector and industry peer rankings. For companies with large buyback programs, equity is adjusted by adding back cumulative 5-year repurchases (capped at 80% of FCF generated) to avoid penalizing shareholder-friendly capital allocation. TCFC receives an estimated rating of AA- (score: 82.0/100), with a improving trend. The Earnings Quality score measures how well reported earnings are backed by real cash. It evaluates the operating cash flow to net income ratio (OCF/NI ≥ 1.0 means every dollar of earnings is cash-backed) and the accruals ratio (the gap between earnings and cash flow relative to assets — lower is better). TCFC's score of 100/100 is high — cash flows strongly support reported earnings.

Valuation

Key valuation multiples comparing the stock's market price to its earnings, revenue, book value, and cash flows. Lower multiples may indicate relative undervaluation versus peers.

P/E
5.63x
PEG
0.36x
P/S
1.92x
P/B
0.82x
P/FCF
5.94x
P/OCF
5.68x
EV/EBITDA
-2.15x
EV/Revenue
-2.66x
EV/EBIT
-2.16x
EV/FCF
-7.00x
Earnings Yield
15.75%
FCF Yield
16.83%
Shareholder Yield
2.84%
Graham Number
$64.07
Equity-based multiples (P/E, P/B, P/FCF) compare the stock price to per-share fundamentals and are affected by capital structure. Enterprise value multiples (EV/EBITDA, EV/Revenue, EV/FCF) strip out debt and cash, making them more useful for cross-company comparisons regardless of how companies are financed. The Graham Number — √(22.5 × EPS × Book Value) — is Benjamin Graham's formula for the maximum price a defensive investor should pay. At 5.6x earnings, TCFC trades at a deep value multiple. An earnings yield of 15.8% exceeds typical risk-free rates, suggesting equities are being compensated for risk. Graham's intrinsic value formula yields $64.07 per share, suggesting a potential 137% margin of safety at the current price.

DuPont Decomposition (5-Factor)

The 5-factor DuPont framework breaks Return on Equity into its component drivers — tax efficiency, interest burden, operating profitability, asset utilization, and financial leverage — to reveal what truly drives shareholder returns.

Tax Burden
0.749
NI / EBT
×
Interest Burden
0.386
EBT / EBIT
×
EBIT Margin
1.231
EBIT / Rev
×
Asset Turnover
0.035
Rev / Assets
×
Equity Multiplier
12.197
Assets / Equity
=
ROE
15.0%
The 5-factor DuPont identity decomposes ROE as: Tax Burden × Interest Burden × EBIT Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier = ROE. This reveals whether returns are driven by operating performance, financial leverage, or tax efficiency — three very different sources of profitability. TCFC's ROE of 15.0% is driven by financial leverage (equity multiplier: 12.20x). Note: high leverage means ROE is amplified by debt rather than operational performance.

Graham-Dodd Adjusted Valuation

Our adaptation of Graham's growth formula (Fair P/E = 8.5 + 2g) from The Intelligent Investor. The classic version relies on analyst growth projections, which can be unreliable. This adjusted model substitutes the company's realized 3-year EPS CAGR — a backward-looking, verifiable measure of actual earnings power — grounding the valuation in demonstrated performance rather than forecasts.

Two adjustments we make, and why. Growth is capped at 15%. Graham defined g as expected growth over the next seven to ten years, not last year's rate. Across US companies since 1994 the median realized 7-year EPS growth is 5–8% regardless of how fast a company grew beforehand, and of 4,457 company-quarters that grew faster than 200%, none sustained it. Uncapped, the formula assigned fair multiples in the hundreds to companies that had never held that rate — and scored worse than simply reading the P/E. Capped, it carries real information. The verdict has three states, not two. Tested over 377,249 stock-months, this ratio only separates outcomes at its extremes: below 0.25 beat the universe by 1.3 points a year, above 3.0 lagged by 2.7, and everything in between sat inside a one-point band. Rather than call two-thirds of the market "undervalued" on a threshold of 1.0, we say Neutral where the model cannot tell — which is most of the time.

Adj. Growth Rate
15.00%
Fair P/E
38.50x
Intrinsic Value
$199.84
Price/Value
0.16x
Margin of Safety
83.51%
Premium
-83.51%
Assessment
Undervalued
Graham's classic formula uses analyst-projected growth to estimate a fair P/E (8.5 + 2g). Our adjusted version replaces that projection with TCFC's realized 15.0% 3-year EPS CAGR, capped at 15% — demonstrated performance rather than forecasts, held to a rate companies have historically sustained. TCFC actually compounded EPS at 29.3% over three years; the model uses 15%, the highest rate it will extrapolate — of 4,457 company-quarters that grew faster than 200%, none sustained it over the following seven years. At an intrinsic value of $199.84, TCFC appears undervalued with a 84% margin of safety. The adjusted fair P/E of 38.5x compares to the current market P/E of 5.6x.

Profitability Trends

Historical profitability ratios tracking how efficiently the company converts revenue into returns for shareholders over time.

Leverage & Solvency Trends

Debt and liquidity metrics showing the company's financial leverage and ability to meet short-term and long-term obligations.

Efficiency & Working Capital Trends

Operating efficiency metrics measuring how quickly the company converts inventory to sales, collects receivables, and manages its cash conversion cycle.

Growth Trends (YoY %)

Year-over-year growth rates for key financial metrics, showing the trajectory of revenue, earnings, and cash flow generation.

Earnings Stability

R-squared of linear regression measuring how predictably revenue, earnings, and margins follow a trend over the trailing 5 years. 1.0 = perfectly predictable; lower values indicate erratic or cyclical behavior.

Monte Carlo Price Simulation

Geometric Brownian Motion with 1,000 antithetic paths over 1 year, seeded from 1800 days of historical volatility. Percentile bands show the range of statistically plausible outcomes — this is a statistical model, not a forecast.

Current Price
$27.09
Median 1Y
$26.95
5th Pctile
$15.87
95th Pctile
$45.75
Ann. Volatility
33.2%
25th–75th percentile 5th–95th percentile Median path Historical
All Ratios & Metrics

Complete fundamental data with up to 20 periods of history, sparkline trends, and current values across 13 categories and 130+ financial metrics.

Profitability
Metric Trend Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Current
ROE 4.6% 5.3% 8.5% 9.1% 9.8% 9.5% 9.1% 8.2% 7.9% 7.8% 8.5% 10.2% 11.5% 12.7% 12.7% 13.1% 13.5% 14.3% 14.3% 15.0% 14.98%
ROA 0.4% 0.5% 0.7% 0.8% 0.9% 0.8% 0.9% 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 0.8% 1.0% 1.1% 1.1% 1.2% 1.1% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.23%
ROIC 3.9% 10.4% 11.5% 12.5% 17.1% 19.8% 51.4% 23.6% -20.0% -15.2% -27.7% -15.0% -16.4% -7.2% -6.8% -7.1% -9.0% -11.2% -20.7% -21.2% -21.23%
ROCE 0.4% 0.4% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.8% 1.6% 2.4% 4.8% 4.3% 4.33%
Gross Margin 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.00%
Operating Margin 23.8% 38.3% 37.3% 36.8% 34.6% 34.5% 35.4% 16.3% 26.2% 29.8% 45.1% 44.7% 47.1% 47.5% 46.9% 53.6% 56.5% 62.1% 77.0% 87.2% 87.20%
Net Margin 17.6% 27.9% 27.5% 27.5% 25.0% 25.0% 25.6% 16.7% 19.7% 22.3% 33.5% 33.4% 35.2% 35.5% 35.2% 35.1% 36.0% 37.4% 33.5% 35.7% 35.71%
EBITDA Margin 0.0% 0.0% 54.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 66.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 44.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 42.0% 53.3% 94.4% 94.4% 2.9% 0.0% 0.00%
FCF Margin 29.7% 24.3% 32.1% 29.2% 29.5% 29.5% 25.1% 31.7% 35.5% 34.6% 40.1% 39.6% 43.2% 49.3% 41.1% 44.3% 43.1% 37.4% 42.4% 38.0% 38.01%
OCF Margin 30.9% 26.0% 35.3% 33.1% 32.6% 32.2% 26.5% 32.4% 36.2% 35.2% 40.5% 40.8% 46.4% 52.5% 44.7% 47.3% 45.3% 39.7% 44.3% 39.8% 39.76%
ROE 3Y Avg snapshot only 12.66%
ROE 5Y Avg snapshot only 10.87%
ROA 3Y Avg snapshot only 1.07%
ROIC Economic snapshot only 17.16%
Cash ROA snapshot only 1.35%
NOPAT Margin snapshot only 53.32%
Pretax Margin snapshot only 47.48%
R&D / Revenue snapshot only 0.00%
SGA / Revenue snapshot only 27.28%
SBC / Revenue snapshot only 1.01%
Valuation
Metric Trend Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Current
P/E Ratio 30.55 24.48 13.30 10.50 11.47 11.55 12.12 8.63 9.72 8.49 9.24 9.84 8.59 8.08 8.45 8.70 7.79 6.95 7.88 6.35 5.632
P/S Ratio 3.51 3.22 2.72 2.64 3.09 3.03 3.12 1.98 2.10 1.79 2.15 2.70 2.68 2.78 2.94 3.07 2.76 2.50 2.79 2.26 1.922
P/B Ratio 1.22 1.13 0.97 0.92 1.06 1.04 1.02 0.66 0.72 0.62 0.75 0.97 0.95 1.00 1.05 1.17 1.11 1.06 1.19 0.94 0.819
P/FCF 11.83 13.25 8.47 9.04 10.47 10.27 12.43 6.24 5.92 5.16 5.36 6.83 6.21 5.63 7.15 6.92 6.41 6.69 6.58 5.94 5.942
P/OCF 11.37 12.38 7.70 8.00 9.47 9.42 11.79 6.11 5.81 5.07 5.31 6.62 5.79 5.29 6.58 6.48 6.10 6.30 6.30 5.68 5.680
EV/EBITDA 32.55 15.59 12.25 13.00 13.12 10.81 3.16 -0.30 -11.73 -15.76 -13.08 -16.89 -17.96 -42.65 -45.78 -19.64 -8.27 -4.92 -1.31 -2.15 -2.146
EV/Revenue 3.56 1.65 1.68 1.78 1.76 1.43 0.56 -0.05 -1.91 -2.48 -1.55 -1.93 -2.03 -4.75 -4.96 -4.71 -3.96 -3.52 -1.83 -2.66 -2.662
EV/EBIT 26.80 12.84 9.84 10.44 10.54 8.68 3.26 -0.31 -12.11 -16.26 -10.50 -13.55 -14.42 -34.24 -37.29 -18.02 -7.97 -4.83 -1.32 -2.16 -2.163
EV/FCF 12.00 6.79 5.25 6.09 5.96 4.83 2.23 -0.16 -5.38 -7.16 -3.85 -4.88 -4.70 -9.64 -12.06 -10.63 -9.20 -9.42 -4.31 -7.00 -7.003
Earnings Yield 3.3% 4.1% 7.5% 9.5% 8.7% 8.7% 8.3% 11.6% 10.3% 11.8% 10.8% 10.2% 11.6% 12.4% 11.8% 11.5% 12.8% 14.4% 12.7% 15.8% 15.75%
FCF Yield 8.4% 7.5% 11.8% 11.1% 9.5% 9.7% 8.0% 16.0% 16.9% 19.4% 18.7% 14.6% 16.1% 17.8% 14.0% 14.5% 15.6% 15.0% 15.2% 16.8% 16.83%
PEG Ratio snapshot only 0.362
Price/Tangible Book snapshot only 0.994
EV/OCF snapshot only -6.695
EV/Gross Profit snapshot only -2.662
Acquirers Multiple snapshot only -3.741
Shareholder Yield snapshot only 2.84%
Graham Number snapshot only $64.07
Leverage & Solvency
Metric Trend Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Current
Current Ratio 2.85 29.70 40.91 4.38 16.56 14.07 49.13 9.08 71.74 112.97 — — — — — 346.76 376.42 — 29.27 5.48 5.482
Quick Ratio 2.85 29.70 40.91 4.38 16.56 14.07 49.13 9.08 71.74 112.97 — — — — — 346.76 376.42 — 29.27 5.48 5.482
Debt/Equity 0.69 0.40 0.59 0.63 0.52 0.68 0.49 0.62 0.49 0.32 0.34 0.33 0.32 0.25 0.24 0.26 0.21 0.21 0.62 0.30 0.298
Net Debt/Equity 0.02 -0.55 -0.37 -0.30 -0.46 -0.55 -0.84 -0.68 -1.37 -1.48 -1.29 -1.65 -1.68 -2.71 -2.82 -2.95 -2.70 -2.57 -1.97 -2.04 -2.042
Debt/Assets 0.06 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.05 0.06 0.05 0.06 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.05 0.02 0.024
Debt/EBITDA 18.22 10.80 11.98 13.31 11.29 15.10 8.44 10.90 8.80 5.94 8.16 7.97 7.96 6.12 6.22 2.84 1.07 0.69 1.04 0.58 0.578
Net Debt/EBITDA 0.46 -14.83 -7.53 -6.31 -9.94 -12.16 -14.42 -11.90 -24.63 -27.11 -31.26 -40.53 -41.71 -67.55 -72.92 -32.42 -14.03 -8.41 -3.30 -3.97 -3.967
Interest Coverage 0.58 0.53 0.66 0.59 0.54 0.51 0.54 0.57 0.66 0.80 1.01 1.34 1.64 1.98 2.40 5.02 9.17 10.60 12.07 6.15 6.150
Equity Multiplier 10.77 11.17 10.93 10.76 10.73 11.09 9.90 9.86 11.05 11.08 10.23 10.71 10.76 11.16 11.18 12.18 12.57 13.17 12.89 12.22 12.216
Cash Ratio snapshot only 5.482
Debt Service Coverage snapshot only 6.198
Cash to Debt snapshot only 7.859
FCF to Debt snapshot only 0.530
Defensive Interval snapshot only 22164.5 days
Efficiency & Turnover
Metric Trend Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Current
Asset Turnover 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.035
Inventory Turnover — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — —
Receivables Turnover 11.37 11.09 11.61 10.94 11.03 11.18 11.89 11.85 10.59 9.43 10.10 11.56 10.86 9.79 10.40 11.54 11.68 11.90 11.48 11.86 11.860
Payables Turnover — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — —
DSO 32 33 31 33 33 33 31 31 34 39 36 32 34 37 35 32 31 31 32 31 30.8 days
DIO — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — —
DPO — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — —
Cash Conversion Cycle — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — —
Fixed Asset Turnover snapshot only 3.078
Cash Velocity snapshot only 0.177
Capital Intensity snapshot only 29.431
Growth (YoY)
Metric Trend Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Current
Revenue 11.5% 12.3% 15.7% 10.6% 10.1% 8.4% 7.9% 11.9% 14.8% 16.9% 16.9% 16.3% 12.2% 9.9% 7.3% 2.3% 2.2% 3.9% 7.5% 12.4% 12.40%
Net Income -33.7% -28.2% 55.8% 1.3% 1.6% 1.2% 36.0% 1.9% -8.0% -6.3% 5.7% 39.2% 62.3% 79.6% 60.4% 31.4% 15.9% 8.6% 9.4% 13.5% 13.45%
EPS -44.7% -40.1% 29.5% 1.3% 1.6% 1.2% 35.7% -3.8% -13.2% -11.6% -0.3% 38.9% 63.3% 85.1% 65.2% 36.0% 20.0% 10.1% 10.9% 14.3% 14.32%
FCF 81.9% 8.9% 89.0% 49.6% 9.5% 31.4% -15.6% 21.3% 38.0% 37.2% 87.0% 45.2% 36.6% 56.5% 9.9% 14.6% 1.8% -21.3% 10.9% -3.6% -3.57%
EBITDA 28.8% 28.8% 34.9% 34.9% 34.9% 34.9% 39.4% 39.4% 39.4% 39.4% -22.1% -22.1% -22.1% -22.1% -1.7% 1.1% 3.3% 5.7% 12.9% 4.8% 4.81%
Op. Income -5.7% -9.7% -5.9% 31.5% 54.3% 44.2% 35.9% -2.1% -13.0% -12.2% -1.5% 43.0% 68.9% 88.3% 67.7% 35.7% 24.6% 23.7% 45.7% 64.1% 64.09%
OCF Growth snapshot only -5.59%
Asset Growth snapshot only 3.26%
Equity Growth snapshot only 2.93%
Debt Growth snapshot only 18.38%
Shares Change snapshot only -0.76%
Dividend Growth snapshot only 10.21%
Growth (CAGR)
Metric Trend Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Current
Revenue 3Y 8.2% 9.5% 10.9% 10.8% 11.0% 10.7% 11.1% 11.4% 12.1% 12.4% 13.5% 12.9% 12.3% 11.7% 10.6% 10.0% 9.6% 10.1% 10.5% 10.2% 10.19%
Revenue 5Y 7.4% 7.8% 8.7% 8.6% 8.7% 8.5% 8.7% 9.1% 9.8% 10.7% 11.5% 12.1% 12.0% 11.8% 11.4% 10.5% 10.1% 10.2% 11.0% 10.6% 10.61%
EPS 3Y -10.7% -2.6% 14.0% 23.5% 27.0% 22.2% 19.9% 11.3% 7.4% 4.5% 20.6% 44.9% 54.0% 52.2% 30.8% 22.0% 19.4% 21.7% 22.3% 29.3% 29.28%
EPS 5Y -12.5% -10.2% 4.2% 11.8% 14.8% 13.9% 14.5% 11.3% 9.8% 11.9% 14.9% 20.3% 23.8% 24.5% 23.2% 21.1% 19.4% 18.4% 26.3% 36.5% 36.45%
Net Income 3Y -5.5% 3.0% 21.0% 31.3% 35.1% 30.0% 27.7% 20.6% 16.3% 13.2% 30.8% 47.9% 56.8% 53.7% 32.1% 23.1% 20.1% 22.3% 22.9% 27.6% 27.56%
Net Income 5Y -1.2% 1.4% 11.0% 15.8% 18.8% 17.9% 18.7% 16.5% 14.9% 17.2% 20.5% 26.3% 29.8% 29.9% 28.7% 26.3% 24.3% 23.2% 31.5% 37.0% 36.98%
EBITDA 3Y 26.3% 26.3% 33.9% 33.9% 33.9% 33.9% 34.3% 34.3% 34.3% 34.3% 13.6% 13.6% 13.6% 13.6% 2.2% 32.6% 67.6% 93.5% 1.2% 1.1% 1.13%
EBITDA 5Y — — 18.0% 18.0% 18.0% 18.0% 30.5% 30.5% 30.5% 30.5% 21.1% 21.1% 21.1% 21.1% 13.1% 32.3% 52.2% 65.9% 82.0% 78.8% 78.83%
Gross Profit 3Y 8.2% 9.5% 10.9% 10.8% 11.0% 10.7% 11.1% 11.4% 12.1% 12.4% 13.5% 12.9% 12.3% 11.7% 10.6% 10.0% 9.6% 10.1% 10.5% 10.2% 10.19%
Gross Profit 5Y 7.4% 7.8% 8.7% 8.6% 8.7% 8.5% 8.7% 9.1% 9.8% 10.7% 11.5% 12.1% 12.0% 11.8% 11.4% 10.5% 10.1% 10.2% 11.0% 10.6% 10.61%
Op. Income 3Y 6.9% 13.3% 15.6% 25.0% 28.5% 24.1% 21.2% 12.5% 8.2% 4.5% 8.0% 22.5% 31.4% 33.6% 31.0% 23.8% 22.3% 26.9% 34.0% 47.1% 47.12%
Op. Income 5Y 6.4% 6.8% 8.1% 12.4% 15.4% 13.9% 15.3% 12.2% 10.4% 13.0% 15.6% 22.3% 25.5% 25.9% 24.1% 22.5% 21.6% 21.6% 25.2% 32.6% 32.59%
FCF 3Y 17.7% 19.0% 24.9% 46.7% 46.4% 27.2% 18.5% 13.7% 40.1% 25.2% 44.0% 38.1% 27.4% 41.3% 20.2% 26.4% 24.3% 19.1% 31.6% 17.1% 17.06%
FCF 5Y 11.7% 7.3% 18.7% 15.9% 14.7% 14.1% 12.4% 15.8% 19.8% 24.9% 25.2% 40.9% 42.7% 34.6% 27.9% 19.6% 30.8% 19.3% 29.5% 23.8% 23.83%
OCF 3Y 8.5% 8.5% 15.8% 21.5% 20.1% 12.8% 6.7% 9.9% 34.8% 22.7% 40.6% 37.7% 28.6% 41.0% 19.6% 24.0% 22.2% 18.0% 31.2% 18.0% 17.95%
OCF 5Y 9.6% 7.2% 17.9% 14.5% 12.7% 10.6% 8.1% 10.3% 13.6% 17.0% 17.6% 23.5% 25.9% 24.6% 20.8% 18.2% 28.6% 18.9% 28.5% 24.0% 23.97%
Assets 3Y 12.1% 14.7% 13.9% 13.3% 12.5% 13.1% 10.4% 10.4% 14.6% 15.1% 13.0% 10.9% 11.4% 10.8% 11.3% 11.2% 9.8% 8.3% 10.3% 10.0% 9.96%
Assets 5Y 10.1% 11.0% 10.5% 11.0% 11.2% 12.2% 10.7% 10.9% 13.2% 14.0% 12.1% 12.8% 12.2% 12.2% 11.8% 11.6% 10.8% 11.0% 11.4% 9.0% 9.02%
Equity 3Y 14.1% 14.5% 15.7% 16.4% 16.9% 17.2% 20.2% 20.2% 20.1% 20.3% 21.7% 11.3% 11.5% 10.8% 10.4% 6.7% 4.1% 2.3% 1.0% 2.4% 2.38%
Book Value 3Y 7.9% 8.2% 9.0% 9.5% 9.9% 10.2% 12.9% 11.0% 10.9% 11.0% 12.1% 9.0% 9.5% 9.7% 9.3% 5.8% 3.5% 1.8% 0.5% 3.8% 3.76%
Dividend 3Y -2.4% -1.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.7% 0.7% -2.5% -3.8% -5.0% -6.1% -0.6% 0.7% 2.2% 2.9% 5.7% 5.4% 5.4% 5.3% 4.4% 4.42%
Growth Quality
Metric Trend Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Current
Revenue Stability 0.93 0.92 0.92 0.95 0.95 0.96 0.94 0.96 0.95 0.96 0.96 0.97 0.98 0.98 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.99 0.98 0.980
Earnings Stability 0.05 0.27 0.57 0.42 0.42 0.55 0.77 0.68 0.60 0.70 0.90 0.84 0.78 0.76 0.89 0.90 0.86 0.85 0.95 0.97 0.969
Margin Stability 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000
Rev. Growth Consistency 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000
Earn. Growth Consistency 0.00 0.00 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 1.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 1.00 0.50 0.50 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000
FCF Positive Streak 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Earnings Persistence 0.87 0.89 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.86 0.99 0.97 0.97 0.98 0.84 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.87 0.94 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.946
Earnings Smoothness 0.59 0.67 0.56 0.22 0.12 0.27 0.69 0.98 0.92 0.94 0.94 0.67 0.52 0.43 0.54 0.73 0.85 0.92 0.91 0.87 0.874
ROE Trend -0.03 -0.03 0.00 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.03 0.032
Gross Margin Trend 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000
FCF Margin Trend 0.14 0.02 0.12 0.04 0.06 0.05 -0.01 0.06 0.06 0.08 0.12 0.09 0.11 0.17 0.08 0.09 0.04 -0.05 0.02 -0.04 -0.039
Sustainable Growth Rate 3.0% 3.7% 6.9% 7.6% 8.2% 7.9% 7.5% 6.6% 6.4% 6.3% 7.0% 8.7% 10.0% 11.2% 11.2% 11.4% 11.7% 12.4% 12.4% 13.1% 13.07%
Internal Growth Rate 0.3% 0.3% 0.6% 0.7% 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.7% 0.9% 0.9% 1.0% 1.1% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.1% 1.08%
Cash Flow Quality
Metric Trend Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Current
OCF/Net Income 2.69 1.98 1.73 1.31 1.21 1.23 1.03 1.41 1.67 1.68 1.74 1.49 1.48 1.53 1.28 1.34 1.28 1.10 1.25 1.12 1.118
FCF/OCF 0.96 0.93 0.91 0.88 0.90 0.92 0.95 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.99 0.97 0.93 0.94 0.92 0.94 0.95 0.94 0.96 0.96 0.956
FCF/Net Income snapshot only 1.068
OCF/EBITDA snapshot only 0.321
CapEx/Revenue 1.2% 1.7% 3.2% 3.8% 3.1% 2.7% 1.4% 0.7% 0.7% 0.6% 0.4% 1.2% 3.1% 3.1% 3.6% 3.0% 2.2% 2.3% 1.9% 1.7% 1.75%
CapEx/Depreciation snapshot only 1.365
Accruals Ratio -0.01 -0.00 -0.01 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.01 -0.00 -0.01 -0.01 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.001
Sloan Accruals snapshot only -0.748
Cash Flow Adequacy snapshot only 6.334
Earnings Quality Score snapshot only 1.000
Dividends & Buybacks
Metric Trend Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Current
Dividend Yield 1.1% 1.2% 1.4% 1.6% 1.4% 1.5% 1.4% 2.2% 2.0% 2.3% 1.9% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.7% 1.9% 1.7% 2.0% 2.58%
Dividend/Share $0.36 $0.37 $0.39 $0.41 $0.43 $0.46 $0.48 $0.46 $0.46 $0.47 $0.48 $0.48 $0.50 $0.53 $0.55 $0.60 $0.62 $0.64 $0.66 $0.66 $0.70
Payout Ratio 33.8% 29.8% 19.3% 16.5% 15.9% 16.9% 17.5% 19.1% 19.6% 19.7% 17.5% 14.3% 13.0% 12.1% 12.2% 13.2% 13.4% 13.3% 13.3% 12.7% 12.72%
FCF Payout Ratio 13.1% 16.1% 12.3% 14.2% 14.5% 15.1% 17.9% 13.8% 11.9% 12.0% 10.1% 9.9% 9.4% 8.4% 10.4% 10.5% 11.0% 12.7% 11.1% 11.9% 11.91%
Total Payout Ratio 35.0% 30.8% 19.9% 17.1% 16.1% 17.1% 17.6% 19.1% 19.6% 19.9% 19.3% 16.9% 32.7% 39.7% 39.5% 45.6% 35.9% 27.4% 13.3% 18.0% 18.00%
Div. Increase Streak 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Chowder Number 0.11 0.16 0.21 0.22 0.23 0.24 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.12 0.08 0.06 0.09 0.12 0.14 0.23 0.21 0.21 0.20 0.11 0.114
Buyback Yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 2.3% 3.4% 3.2% 3.7% 2.9% 2.0% 0.0% 0.8% 0.83%
Net Buyback Yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 2.3% 3.4% 3.2% 3.7% 2.8% 2.0% -0.2% 0.6% 0.60%
Total Shareholder Return 1.1% 1.3% 1.5% 1.6% 1.4% 1.5% 1.5% 2.2% 2.0% 2.3% 2.1% 1.7% 3.8% 4.9% 4.7% 5.2% 4.5% 3.9% 1.5% 2.6% 2.60%
DuPont Factors
Metric Trend Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Current
Tax Burden (NI/EBT) 0.44 0.49 0.73 0.74 0.73 0.73 0.73 0.77 0.78 0.78 0.78 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.749
Interest Burden (EBT/EBIT) 1.97 2.09 1.64 2.00 2.20 2.18 2.05 1.81 1.76 1.76 2.02 2.58 2.98 3.32 3.50 1.80 0.95 0.66 0.34 0.39 0.386
EBIT Margin 0.13 0.13 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.16 0.17 0.17 0.16 0.15 0.15 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.13 0.26 0.50 0.73 1.39 1.23 1.231
Asset Turnover 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.035
Equity Multiplier 11.61 11.79 11.70 10.79 10.75 11.12 10.38 10.28 10.90 11.08 10.08 10.30 10.90 11.12 10.72 11.43 11.62 12.10 11.99 12.20 12.197
Per Share
Metric Trend Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Current
EPS (Diluted TTM) $1.06 $1.25 $2.02 $2.50 $2.73 $2.70 $2.75 $2.40 $2.37 $2.39 $2.74 $3.34 $3.87 $4.42 $4.52 $4.54 $4.64 $4.86 $5.02 $5.19 $5.19
Book Value/Share $26.53 $27.05 $27.82 $28.62 $29.43 $30.10 $32.62 $31.47 $32.14 $32.71 $33.59 $34.04 $34.82 $35.69 $36.37 $33.89 $32.68 $31.74 $33.12 $35.15 $33.09
Tangible Book/Share $24.04 $24.58 $25.37 $26.20 $27.04 $27.75 $30.29 $29.30 $30.00 $30.59 $31.50 $31.97 $32.76 $33.59 $34.29 $31.83 $30.62 $29.69 $31.09 $33.14 $33.14
Revenue/Share $9.22 $9.52 $9.90 $9.92 $10.13 $10.30 $10.66 $10.48 $10.97 $11.35 $11.76 $12.16 $12.38 $12.86 $12.99 $12.88 $13.10 $13.53 $14.16 $14.59 $14.14
FCF/Share $2.73 $2.31 $3.17 $2.90 $2.99 $3.04 $2.67 $3.32 $3.89 $3.93 $4.72 $4.81 $5.35 $6.34 $5.34 $5.71 $5.64 $5.06 $6.00 $5.55 $6.00
OCF/Share $2.85 $2.48 $3.49 $3.28 $3.31 $3.31 $2.82 $3.40 $3.97 $4.00 $4.76 $4.96 $5.74 $6.74 $5.80 $6.10 $5.93 $5.36 $6.27 $5.80 $6.27
Cash/Share $17.91 $25.84 $26.53 $26.65 $28.82 $37.00 $43.26 $40.77 $59.71 $59.01 $54.83 $67.41 $69.52 $105.58 $111.39 $108.91 $94.79 $88.13 $86.10 $82.25 $86.00
EBITDA/Share $1.01 $1.01 $1.36 $1.36 $1.36 $1.36 $1.89 $1.79 $1.79 $1.79 $1.39 $1.39 $1.40 $1.43 $1.41 $3.09 $6.28 $9.68 $19.82 $18.10 $18.10
Debt/Share $18.37 $10.89 $16.29 $18.08 $15.32 $20.50 $15.97 $19.49 $15.72 $10.60 $11.35 $11.08 $11.14 $8.77 $8.75 $8.77 $6.70 $6.70 $20.68 $10.47 $10.47
Net Debt/Share $0.46 $-14.95 $-10.24 $-8.57 $-13.49 $-16.50 $-27.28 $-21.28 $-44.00 $-48.41 $-43.47 $-56.33 $-58.38 $-96.81 $-102.64 $-100.14 $-88.09 $-81.43 $-65.41 $-71.79 $-71.79
Academic Models
Metric Trend Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Current
Altman-B Score — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — 2.685
Altman Z-Prime snapshot only 1.582
Piotroski F-Score 6 6 7 7 7 5 7 5 6 6 5 6 7 7 6 6 6 7 6 6 6
Beneish M-Score -2.37 -2.35 -2.68 -2.36 -2.33 -2.44 -0.37 -2.50 -2.23 -1.86 -1.84 -2.07 -2.53 -2.82 -2.83 -3.11 -2.91 -2.30 -2.45 2.60 2.600
Ohlson O-Score snapshot only -4.878
ROIC (Greenblatt) snapshot only 24.94%
Net-Net WC snapshot only $-312.00
Credit
Metric Trend Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Current
Credit Rating snapshot only AA-
Credit Score 54.22 61.06 62.08 63.85 65.49 63.94 68.06 65.96 64.50 83.41 82.57 84.21 85.35 91.45 91.19 79.42 78.26 78.99 78.23 82.01 82.007
Credit Grade snapshot only 4
Credit Trend snapshot only 2.588
Implied Spread (bps) snapshot only 100.000
Industry Credit Rank snapshot only 87
Sector Credit Rank snapshot only 77

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