NOG NYSE
Northern Oil and Gas, Inc.
1W: +2.7%
1M: +24.7%
3M: +43.6%
YTD: +29.4%
1Y: +28.4%
3Y: -22.4%
5Y: +36.0%
$28.15
-0.33 (-1.16%)
After Hours: $28.05 (-0.09, -0.34%)
Weekly Expected Move ±4.6%
$26
$27
$28
$30
$31
Credit Risk of going bust: higher than 67% of companies Debt: 47.3% of company value Bonds: $254.6M held by 225 funds, 325 bp over Treasuries → details ▾
Of US companies ranked in the middle of the pack, about 1 in 580 filed for bankruptcy within a year (2020-2025).
If the stock fell to about $1.86 (down 93%), Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. would be worth roughly what it owes.
Total debt $2.72B against a stock market value of $3.03B.
Distance to default 3.62 (Merton model): prices to 2026-10-26, balance sheet 2026-06-30, debt counted $1.36B (short-term plus half of long-term), stock volatility 45.4%; Altman Z'' -0.03. A ranking and a back-test, not a forecast.
Bond figures are fund-reported marks (SEC N-PORT) as of Jul 2026. How these are computed.
If the stock fell to about $1.86 (down 93%), Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. would be worth roughly what it owes.
Total debt $2.72B against a stock market value of $3.03B.
Distance to default 3.62 (Merton model): prices to 2026-10-26, balance sheet 2026-06-30, debt counted $1.36B (short-term plus half of long-term), stock volatility 45.4%; Altman Z'' -0.03. A ranking and a back-test, not a forecast.
Bond figures are fund-reported marks (SEC N-PORT) as of Jul 2026. How these are computed.
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Supply Chain
Oct Typical
☀️
Sunny
+13.0% YTD avg
Midterm Year
☀️
Sunny
+27.8% YTD avg
2026 Now
☀️
Sunny
Above typical
20yr Avg YTD
+13.0%
Day 206 of 252
Midterm Year YTD
+27.8%
Presidential cycle avg
2026 YTD
+27.9%
Above 20yr avg
Typical Vol
72%
Annualized
Monthly Weather Forecast
Jan
20yr
💨
+1.6%
Midterm
🌧️
-3.8%
53% win
66% vol
Feb
20yr
💨
+1.0%
Midterm
⛅
+1.4%
53% win
63% vol
Mar
20yr
💨
+6.1%
Midterm
☀️
+9.2%
53% win
85% vol
Apr
20yr
💨
+10.9%
Midterm
☀️
+5.9%
50% win
68% vol
May
20yr
💨
+15.8%
Midterm
☀️
+19.5%
45% win
64% vol
Jun
20yr
💨
+15.5%
Midterm
☀️
+14.5%
55% win
70% vol
Jul
20yr
⛈️
+9.9%
Midterm
☀️
+28.6%
35% win
59% vol
Aug
20yr
⛈️
+11.7%
Midterm
☀️
+27.1%
40% win
70% vol
Sep
20yr
🌫️
+11.4%
Midterm
☀️
+29.9%
45% win
64% vol
Oct
20yr
⛈️
+10.3%
Midterm
☀️
+25.4%
50% win
72% vol
Now:
+23.0%
Nov
20yr
💨
+11.2%
Midterm
☀️
+29.4%
63% win
86% vol
Dec
20yr
💨
+1.7%
Midterm
⛈️
-10.4%
53% win
78% vol
Seasonality (20yr)
Updated: 2026-10-27
YTD: +27.9%