TKR NYSE
The Timken Company
1W: -1.9%
1M: -5.9%
3M: -21.0%
YTD: +28.5%
1Y: +42.8%
3Y: +64.5%
5Y: +65.6%
$113.06
+2.57 (+2.33%)
After Hours: $113.62 (+0.56, +0.50%)
Weekly Expected Move ±4.4%
$100
$104
$109
$114
$119
Credit Risk of going bust: lower than 67% of companies Debt: 21.3% of company value Bonds: $44.8M held by 72 funds, 83 bp over Treasuries → details ▾
Of US companies ranked in the safest four tenths, about 1 in 3,500 filed for bankruptcy within a year (2020-2025).
If the stock fell to about $2.10 (down 98%), The Timken Company would be worth roughly what it owes.
Total debt $2.08B against a stock market value of $7.66B.
Distance to default 7.10 (Merton model): prices to 2026-10-26, balance sheet 2026-06-30, debt counted $1.06B (short-term plus half of long-term), stock volatility 33.5%; Altman Z 3.13. A ranking and a back-test, not a forecast.
Bond figures are fund-reported marks (SEC N-PORT) as of Jul 2026. How these are computed.
If the stock fell to about $2.10 (down 98%), The Timken Company would be worth roughly what it owes.
Total debt $2.08B against a stock market value of $7.66B.
Distance to default 7.10 (Merton model): prices to 2026-10-26, balance sheet 2026-06-30, debt counted $1.06B (short-term plus half of long-term), stock volatility 33.5%; Altman Z 3.13. A ranking and a back-test, not a forecast.
Bond figures are fund-reported marks (SEC N-PORT) as of Jul 2026. How these are computed.
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Institutions
ETF Exposure
Dark Pool
Short Interest
Supply Chain
Oct Typical
⛅
Partly Cloudy
+4.8% YTD avg
Midterm Year
☀️
Sunny
+10.6% YTD avg
2026 Now
☀️
Sunny
Above typical
20yr Avg YTD
+4.8%
Day 206 of 252
Midterm Year YTD
+10.6%
Presidential cycle avg
2026 YTD
+31.5%
Above 20yr avg
Typical Vol
50%
Annualized
Monthly Weather Forecast
Jan
20yr
⛅
+2.5%
Midterm
☁️
-0.1%
50% win
34% vol
Feb
20yr
⛅
+3.2%
Midterm
🌧️
-1.4%
80% win
34% vol
Mar
20yr
🌫️
+3.7%
Midterm
⛅
+1.6%
55% win
51% vol
Apr
20yr
💨
+9.4%
Midterm
☀️
+8.2%
70% win
42% vol
May
20yr
💨
+7.2%
Midterm
⛅
+3.9%
60% win
36% vol
Jun
20yr
🌫️
+6.7%
Midterm
☁️
-0.3%
45% win
34% vol
Jul
20yr
💨
+6.9%
Midterm
☀️
+9.6%
55% win
40% vol
Aug
20yr
⛈️
+5.5%
Midterm
☀️
+9.0%
35% win
37% vol
Sep
20yr
⛈️
+4.9%
Midterm
☀️
+10.0%
45% win
35% vol
Oct
20yr
🌫️
+4.6%
Midterm
☀️
+10.7%
52% win
50% vol
Now:
-3.1%
Nov
20yr
💨
+9.7%
Midterm
☀️
+16.4%
70% win
40% vol
Dec
20yr
⛅
+2.3%
Midterm
🌧️
-1.3%
55% win
33% vol
Seasonality (20yr)
Updated: 2026-10-27
YTD: +31.5%