UNP NYSE
Union Pacific Corporation
1W: +3.5%
1M: +8.5%
3M: +0.8%
YTD: +28.7%
1Y: +35.7%
3Y: +48.6%
5Y: +44.9%
$299.88
+2.91 (+0.98%)
After Hours: $299.79 (-0.09, -0.03%)
Weekly Expected Move ±2.6%
$278
$285
$293
$300
$308
Credit Risk of going bust: lower than 87% of companies Debt: 15.1% of company value Bonds: $342.7M held by 292 funds, 72 bp over Treasuries → details ▾
Of US companies ranked in the safest four tenths, about 1 in 3,500 filed for bankruptcy within a year (2020-2025).
If the stock fell to about $2.78 (down 99.1%), Union Pacific Corporation would be worth roughly what it owes.
Total debt $31.34B against a stock market value of $176.42B.
Distance to default 12.13 (Merton model): prices to 2026-10-26, balance sheet 2026-09-30, debt counted $16.03B (short-term plus half of long-term), stock volatility 22.4%; Altman Z'' 4.84. A ranking and a back-test, not a forecast.
Bond figures are fund-reported marks (SEC N-PORT) as of Jul 2026. How these are computed.
If the stock fell to about $2.78 (down 99.1%), Union Pacific Corporation would be worth roughly what it owes.
Total debt $31.34B against a stock market value of $176.42B.
Distance to default 12.13 (Merton model): prices to 2026-10-26, balance sheet 2026-09-30, debt counted $16.03B (short-term plus half of long-term), stock volatility 22.4%; Altman Z'' 4.84. A ranking and a back-test, not a forecast.
Bond figures are fund-reported marks (SEC N-PORT) as of Jul 2026. How these are computed.
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Supply Chain
Oct Typical
☀️
Sunny
+10.8% YTD avg
Midterm Year
☀️
Sunny
+15.1% YTD avg
2026 Now
☀️
Sunny
Above typical
20yr Avg YTD
+10.8%
Day 206 of 252
Midterm Year YTD
+15.1%
Presidential cycle avg
2026 YTD
+30.0%
Above 20yr avg
Typical Vol
34%
Annualized
Monthly Weather Forecast
Jan
20yr
⛅
+2.2%
Midterm
⛅
+1.4%
45% win
30% vol
Feb
20yr
☀️
+3.1%
Midterm
⛅
+3.9%
75% win
27% vol
Mar
20yr
💨
+3.8%
Midterm
☀️
+10.5%
55% win
35% vol
Apr
20yr
☀️
+7.2%
Midterm
☀️
+8.6%
70% win
28% vol
May
20yr
⛅
+8.6%
Midterm
☀️
+9.1%
50% win
25% vol
Jun
20yr
☁️
+8.5%
Midterm
☀️
+7.6%
40% win
26% vol
Jul
20yr
☀️
+11.2%
Midterm
☀️
+8.6%
75% win
26% vol
Aug
20yr
☁️
+10.4%
Midterm
☀️
+9.2%
50% win
24% vol
Sep
20yr
🌧️
+10.1%
Midterm
☀️
+14.2%
55% win
26% vol
Oct
20yr
⛅
+10.9%
Midterm
☀️
+15.3%
52% win
34% vol
Now:
+10.2%
Nov
20yr
☀️
+15.4%
Midterm
☀️
+19.9%
80% win
28% vol
Dec
20yr
⛅
+0.7%
Midterm
🌧️
-1.6%
70% win
25% vol
Seasonality (20yr)
Updated: 2026-10-27
YTD: +30.0%