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Also trades as: UMG.AS (AMS) · $vol 56M · UMGNF (OTC) · $vol 1M

UNVGY OTC

Universal Music Group N.V.
1W: -3.3% 1M: -3.6% 3M: -25.7% YTD: -38.1% 1Y: -45.5% 3Y: -33.0%
$7.98
+0.06 (+0.76%)
 
Weekly Expected Move ±3.1%
$7 $8 $8 $8 $8
OTC · Communication Services · Entertainment · Tech Score Sell · Power 36 · $29.3B mcap · 1.03B float · 0.095% daily turnover · Short 35% of daily vol

Financial Rating

Composite financial health rating (A+ to F) based on discounted cash flow valuation, return on equity, return on assets, debt-to-equity leverage, and relative P/E and P/B multiples.

C+
Oct 02, 2026
DCF
3
ROE
3
ROA
4
D/E
1
P/E
1
P/B
1
The Financial Rating evaluates six fundamental factors — discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation, return on equity (ROE), return on assets (ROA), debt-to-equity leverage (D/E), and relative price-to-earnings (P/E) and price-to-book (P/B) multiples — each scored 1–5. UNVGY receives an overall rating of C+. Strongest factors: ROA (4/5). Areas of concern: D/E (1/5), P/E (1/5), P/B (1/5).
Rating Change History
DateFromTo
2026-08-05 B C+
2026-07-25 B+ B
2026-07-01 B B+
2026-06-01 B+ B
2026-04-24 B B+
2026-04-02 B+ B
2026-04-02 C B+
2026-04-01 C- C
2026-03-30 C C-
2026-03-12 B+ C

InsiderStreet Scorecard

Proprietary multi-factor scorecard rating companies across seven fundamental dimensions — profitability, balance sheet strength, earnings quality, growth, value, momentum, and safety — each scored 0–100.

★ ★ ★ ★ ★ — Grade B
Profitability
61
Balance Sheet
43
Earnings Quality
80
Growth
64
Value
—
Momentum
79
Safety
—
Cash Flow
63

Risk & Quality Signals

Academic financial models used by institutional investors to assess bankruptcy risk, earnings manipulation, financial strength, and credit quality.

Altman Z-Score
—
—
Piotroski F-Score
6/9
✓ ✓ ✗ ✓ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✗ ✓
Beneish M-Score
-2.15
Unlikely Manipulator
Ohlson O-Score
-6.53
Bankruptcy prob: 0.1%
Low Risk
Credit Rating
A
Score: 74.8/100
Trend: Deteriorating
Earnings Quality
100/100
OCF/NI: 1.15x
Accruals: -2.5%
The Piotroski F-Score (2000) is a 9-point binary checklist — four profitability tests (positive ROA, positive cash flow, improving ROA, cash flow exceeding net income), three leverage tests (declining debt ratio, improving current ratio, no share dilution), and two efficiency tests (improving gross margin, improving asset turnover). Each pass scores 1 point. UNVGY scores 6/9, indicating moderate financial health — some areas of strength offset by weaknesses in others. The Beneish M-Score (1999) is an 8-variable model that detects earnings manipulation by comparing year-over-year changes in receivables, gross margins, asset quality, sales growth, depreciation, SG&A, leverage, and accruals. Scores above −1.78 statistically resemble past manipulators. UNVGY's score of -2.15 falls below this threshold, suggesting earnings are unlikely to be manipulated. The Ohlson O-Score (1980) is a 9-variable logistic regression that estimates bankruptcy probability using firm size, leverage, working capital, current ratio, profitability (ROA), cash flow coverage, negative equity flag, consecutive losses flag, and earnings trajectory. The raw score is converted to a probability via logistic transformation. UNVGY's implied 0.1% bankruptcy probability is well within safe territory. Our Credit Rating model scores companies on five weighted components — solvency (30%), earning power (25%), leverage (20%), liquidity (15%), and cash flow quality (10%) — then blends the absolute score with sector and industry peer rankings. For companies with large buyback programs, equity is adjusted by adding back cumulative 5-year repurchases (capped at 80% of FCF generated) to avoid penalizing shareholder-friendly capital allocation. UNVGY receives an estimated rating of A (score: 74.8/100), with a deteriorating trend. The Earnings Quality score measures how well reported earnings are backed by real cash. It evaluates the operating cash flow to net income ratio (OCF/NI ≥ 1.0 means every dollar of earnings is cash-backed) and the accruals ratio (the gap between earnings and cash flow relative to assets — lower is better). UNVGY's score of 100/100 is high — cash flows strongly support reported earnings.

Valuation

Key valuation multiples comparing the stock's market price to its earnings, revenue, book value, and cash flows. Lower multiples may indicate relative undervaluation versus peers.

P/E
81.41x
PEG
-0.93x
P/S
2.04x
P/B
7.20x
P/FCF
—
P/OCF
—
EV/EBITDA
—
EV/Revenue
—
EV/EBIT
—
EV/FCF
—
Earnings Yield
—
FCF Yield
—
Shareholder Yield
—
Graham Number
$4.22
Equity-based multiples (P/E, P/B, P/FCF) compare the stock price to per-share fundamentals and are affected by capital structure. Enterprise value multiples (EV/EBITDA, EV/Revenue, EV/FCF) strip out debt and cash, making them more useful for cross-company comparisons regardless of how companies are financed. The Graham Number — √(22.5 × EPS × Book Value) — is Benjamin Graham's formula for the maximum price a defensive investor should pay. At 81.4x earnings, UNVGY is priced for high growth expectations. Graham's intrinsic value formula yields $4.22 per share, 89% below the current price.

DuPont Decomposition (5-Factor)

The 5-factor DuPont framework breaks Return on Equity into its component drivers — tax efficiency, interest burden, operating profitability, asset utilization, and financial leverage — to reveal what truly drives shareholder returns.

Tax Burden
0.725
NI / EBT
×
Interest Burden
0.978
EBT / EBIT
×
EBIT Margin
0.165
EBIT / Rev
×
Asset Turnover
1.496
Rev / Assets
×
Equity Multiplier
4.754
Assets / Equity
=
ROE
83.1%
The 5-factor DuPont identity decomposes ROE as: Tax Burden × Interest Burden × EBIT Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier = ROE. This reveals whether returns are driven by operating performance, financial leverage, or tax efficiency — three very different sources of profitability. UNVGY's ROE of 83.1% is driven by financial leverage (equity multiplier: 4.75x). Note: high leverage means ROE is amplified by debt rather than operational performance.

Graham-Dodd Adjusted Valuation

Our adaptation of Graham's growth formula (Fair P/E = 8.5 + 2g) from The Intelligent Investor. The classic version relies on analyst growth projections, which can be unreliable. This adjusted model substitutes the company's realized 3-year EPS CAGR — a backward-looking, verifiable measure of actual earnings power — grounding the valuation in demonstrated performance rather than forecasts.

Two adjustments we make, and why. Growth is capped at 15%. Graham defined g as expected growth over the next seven to ten years, not last year's rate. Across US companies since 1994 the median realized 7-year EPS growth is 5–8% regardless of how fast a company grew beforehand, and of 4,457 company-quarters that grew faster than 200%, none sustained it. Uncapped, the formula assigned fair multiples in the hundreds to companies that had never held that rate — and scored worse than simply reading the P/E. Capped, it carries real information. The verdict has three states, not two. Tested over 377,249 stock-months, this ratio only separates outcomes at its extremes: below 0.25 beat the universe by 1.3 points a year, above 3.0 lagged by 2.7, and everything in between sat inside a one-point band. Rather than call two-thirds of the market "undervalued" on a threshold of 1.0, we say Neutral where the model cannot tell — which is most of the time.

Adj. Growth Rate
10.01%
Fair P/E
28.51x
Intrinsic Value
$22.82
Price/Value
—
Margin of Safety
—
Premium
—
Graham's classic formula uses analyst-projected growth to estimate a fair P/E (8.5 + 2g). Our adjusted version replaces that projection with UNVGY's realized 10.0% 3-year EPS CAGR, capped at 15% — demonstrated performance rather than forecasts, held to a rate companies have historically sustained. UNVGY trades at a premium to its adjusted intrinsic value of $22.82, suggesting the market is pricing in future growth beyond what historical earnings support. The adjusted fair P/E of 28.5x compares to the current market P/E of 81.4x.

Profitability Trends

Historical profitability ratios tracking how efficiently the company converts revenue into returns for shareholders over time.

Leverage & Solvency Trends

Debt and liquidity metrics showing the company's financial leverage and ability to meet short-term and long-term obligations.

Efficiency & Working Capital Trends

Operating efficiency metrics measuring how quickly the company converts inventory to sales, collects receivables, and manages its cash conversion cycle.

Growth Trends (YoY %)

Year-over-year growth rates for key financial metrics, showing the trajectory of revenue, earnings, and cash flow generation.

Earnings Stability

R-squared of linear regression measuring how predictably revenue, earnings, and margins follow a trend over the trailing 5 years. 1.0 = perfectly predictable; lower values indicate erratic or cyclical behavior.

Monte Carlo Price Simulation

Geometric Brownian Motion with 1,000 antithetic paths over 1 year, seeded from 1229 days of historical volatility. Percentile bands show the range of statistically plausible outcomes — this is a statistical model, not a forecast.

Current Price
$7.98
Median 1Y
$6.59
5th Pctile
$3.62
95th Pctile
$12.05
Ann. Volatility
38.8%
25th–75th percentile 5th–95th percentile Median path Historical
All Ratios & Metrics

Complete fundamental data with up to 20 periods of history, sparkline trends, and current values across 13 categories and 130+ financial metrics.

Profitability
Metric Trend Q4'21 Q2'22 Q4'22 Q2'23 Q4'23 Q2'24 Q4'24 Q2'25 Q4'25 Q2'26 Current
ROE 21.4% 30.6% 51.7% 72.0% 81.8% 96.3% 97.3% 1.1% 96.4% 83.1% 83.10%
ROA 3.6% 5.2% 10.4% 14.8% 16.2% 19.2% 23.1% 27.0% 23.7% 17.5% 17.48%
ROIC 12.7% 27.3% 43.5% 46.1% 48.7% 34.6% 40.1% 32.3% 35.5% 33.7% 33.71%
ROCE 11.2% 16.1% 39.3% 37.1% 35.3% 36.3% 31.8% 34.0% 39.3% 43.2% 43.22%
Gross Margin 45.2% 44.9% 43.9% 41.8% 43.0% 43.7% 42.4% 43.2% 38.4% 37.4% 37.42%
Operating Margin 16.1% 16.2% 15.7% 11.8% 14.1% 13.7% 16.2% 16.1% 16.6% 15.4% 15.35%
Net Margin 9.3% 5.1% 9.7% 12.1% 10.6% 16.5% 18.6% 24.3% 1.5% 3.6% 3.58%
EBITDA Margin 17.7% 11.9% 17.8% 9.5% 17.4% 19.3% 20.4% 20.7% 20.0% 19.5% 19.45%
FCF Margin 8.5% 8.9% 13.8% 11.8% 14.9% 13.3% 13.9% 13.1% 13.7% 12.7% 12.67%
OCF Margin 17.6% 13.8% 17.0% 15.0% 13.5% 11.9% 12.7% 11.4% 14.4% 13.4% 13.39%
ROE 3Y Avg snapshot only 63.53%
ROA 3Y Avg snapshot only 13.00%
ROIC 3Y Avg snapshot only 23.55%
ROIC Economic snapshot only 33.71%
Cash ROA snapshot only 18.28%
Cash ROIC snapshot only 38.63%
CROIC snapshot only 36.57%
NOPAT Margin snapshot only 11.68%
Pretax Margin snapshot only 16.11%
R&D / Revenue snapshot only 0.00%
SGA / Revenue snapshot only 22.57%
SBC / Revenue snapshot only 1.19%
Valuation
Metric Trend Q4'21 Q2'22 Q4'22 Q2'23 Q4'23 Q2'24 Q4'24 Q2'25 Q4'25 Q2'26 Current
P/E Ratio — — — — — — — — — — 81.411
P/S Ratio — — — — — — — — — — 2.039
P/B Ratio — — — — — — — — — — 7.198
P/FCF — — — — — — — — — — —
P/OCF — — — — — — — — — — —
EV/EBITDA — — — — — — — — — — —
EV/Revenue — — — — — — — — — — —
EV/EBIT — — — — — — — — — — —
EV/FCF — — — — — — — — — — —
Earnings Yield — — — — — — — — — — —
FCF Yield — — — — — — — — — — —
Graham Number snapshot only $4.22
Leverage & Solvency
Metric Trend Q4'21 Q2'22 Q4'22 Q2'23 Q4'23 Q2'24 Q4'24 Q2'25 Q4'25 Q2'26 Current
Current Ratio 0.62 0.79 0.55 0.62 0.65 0.58 0.60 0.63 0.63 0.61 0.607
Quick Ratio 0.60 0.77 0.53 0.59 0.61 0.55 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.58 0.576
Debt/Equity 1.53 1.94 1.14 1.24 0.85 1.05 0.42 0.77 0.75 1.53 1.532
Net Debt/Equity 1.24 1.24 0.95 1.03 0.68 0.92 0.30 0.66 0.73 1.40 1.399
Debt/Assets 0.26 0.33 0.23 0.25 0.19 0.24 0.11 0.20 0.20 0.30 0.302
Debt/EBITDA 3.75 3.09 1.12 1.10 0.81 1.00 0.49 0.81 0.70 1.10 1.101
Net Debt/EBITDA 3.04 1.97 0.93 0.91 0.65 0.88 0.35 0.70 0.68 1.01 1.005
Interest Coverage — 51.55 91.50 29.30 30.46 50.68 26.83 35.65 16.43 12.12 12.117
Equity Multiplier 5.96 5.93 4.95 4.87 4.42 4.42 3.83 3.75 3.84 5.07 5.068
Cash Ratio snapshot only 0.055
Debt Service Coverage snapshot only 14.794
Cash to Debt snapshot only 0.087
FCF to Debt snapshot only 0.572
Defensive Interval snapshot only 214.5 days
Efficiency & Turnover
Metric Trend Q4'21 Q2'22 Q4'22 Q2'23 Q4'23 Q2'24 Q4'24 Q2'25 Q4'25 Q2'26 Current
Asset Turnover 0.39 0.72 1.29 1.62 1.70 1.58 1.58 1.54 1.59 1.50 1.496
Inventory Turnover 25.87 40.38 51.01 55.45 78.63 68.03 161.24 57.26 59.78 57.95 57.954
Receivables Turnover 2.92 4.42 8.51 9.74 11.97 10.03 11.45 10.36 11.34 9.43 9.432
Payables Turnover 0.81 1.03 2.27 2.25 7.40 2.38 6.86 2.50 6.05 2.45 2.453
DSO 125 83 43 37 30 36 32 35 32 39 38.7 days
DIO 14 9 7 7 5 5 2 6 6 6 6.3 days
DPO 451 354 161 162 49 154 53 146 60 149 148.8 days
Cash Conversion Cycle -312 -263 -111 -118 -14 -112 -19 -104 -22 -104 -103.8 days
Fixed Asset Turnover snapshot only 22.647
Operating Cycle snapshot only 45.0 days
Cash Velocity snapshot only 51.739
Capital Intensity snapshot only 0.732
Growth (YoY)
Metric Trend Q4'21 Q2'22 Q4'22 Q2'23 Q4'23 Q2'24 Q4'24 Q2'25 Q4'25 Q2'26 Current
Revenue — — — — 3.6% 1.4% 52.8% 17.4% 13.3% 12.8% 12.78%
Net Income — — — — 3.7% 3.0% 1.8% 1.3% 77.3% 8.0% 7.98%
EPS — — — — 3.6% 2.9% 1.7% 1.2% 80.4% 10.0% 10.01%
FCF — — — — 7.0% 2.6% 53.8% 29.6% 4.6% 7.4% 7.40%
EBITDA — — — — 2.7% 1.6% 62.2% 59.9% 57.8% 40.4% 40.39%
Op. Income — — — — 3.1% 1.0% 34.5% 18.7% 23.1% 30.5% 30.50%
OCF Growth snapshot only 26.72%
Asset Growth snapshot only 21.14%
Equity Growth snapshot only 5.70%
Debt Growth snapshot only 54.18%
Shares Change snapshot only -1.84%
Dividend Growth snapshot only 9.17%
Growth Quality
Metric Trend Q4'21 Q2'22 Q4'22 Q2'23 Q4'23 Q2'24 Q4'24 Q2'25 Q4'25 Q2'26 Current
Revenue Stability — — — — — — — — 0.86 0.88 0.881
Earnings Stability — — — — — — — — 1.00 0.82 0.821
Margin Stability — — — — — — — — 0.96 0.94 0.944
Rev. Growth Consistency 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 1.00 1.00 1.000
Earn. Growth Consistency 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 1.00 1.00 1.000
FCF Positive Streak 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Earnings Persistence — — — — — — — — 0.50 0.97 0.968
Earnings Smoothness — — — — 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.23 0.44 0.92 0.923
ROE Trend — — — — — — — — 0.35 0.26 0.260
Gross Margin Trend — — — — — — — — -0.02 -0.04 -0.038
FCF Margin Trend — — — — — — — — 0.02 0.02 0.016
Sustainable Growth Rate 3.5% -1.0% 2.3% 8.9% 12.6% 30.7% 43.1% 61.5% 45.5% 26.9% 26.94%
Internal Growth Rate 0.6% — 0.5% 1.9% 2.6% 6.5% 11.4% 17.5% 12.6% 6.0% 6.01%
Cash Flow Quality
Metric Trend Q4'21 Q2'22 Q4'22 Q2'23 Q4'23 Q2'24 Q4'24 Q2'25 Q4'25 Q2'26 Current
OCF/Net Income 1.90 1.93 2.10 1.64 1.42 0.98 0.87 0.65 0.97 1.15 1.146
FCF/OCF 0.48 0.64 0.81 0.79 1.10 1.12 1.09 1.14 0.95 0.95 0.947
FCF/Net Income snapshot only 1.085
OCF/EBITDA snapshot only 0.666
CapEx/Revenue 9.1% 5.0% 3.3% 3.1% 1.7% 1.6% 1.7% 1.1% 0.7% 0.7% 0.71%
CapEx/Depreciation snapshot only 0.196
Accruals Ratio -0.03 -0.05 -0.12 -0.09 -0.07 0.00 0.03 0.09 0.01 -0.03 -0.025
Sloan Accruals snapshot only -0.083
Cash Flow Adequacy snapshot only 1.555
Earnings Quality Score snapshot only 1.000
Dividends & Buybacks
Metric Trend Q4'21 Q2'22 Q4'22 Q2'23 Q4'23 Q2'24 Q4'24 Q2'25 Q4'25 Q2'26 Current
Dividend Yield — — — — — — — — — — 3.65%
Dividend/Share $0.10 $0.19 $0.32 $0.44 $0.46 $0.50 $0.51 $0.50 $0.52 $0.54 $0.26
Payout Ratio 83.6% 1.0% 95.5% 87.7% 84.6% 68.1% 55.7% 45.0% 52.8% 67.6% 67.58%
FCF Payout Ratio 91.2% 83.7% 56.1% 67.7% 54.2% 62.4% 58.6% 60.4% 57.4% 62.3% 62.30%
Total Payout Ratio 83.6% 1.0% 95.5% 87.7% 84.6% 68.1% 55.7% 45.0% 52.8% 93.1% 93.12%
Div. Increase Streak 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Chowder Number — — — — — — — — — — —
Buyback Yield — — — — — — — — — — —
Net Buyback Yield — — — — — — — — — — —
Total Shareholder Return — — — — — — — — — — —
DuPont Factors
Metric Trend Q4'21 Q2'22 Q4'22 Q2'23 Q4'23 Q2'24 Q4'24 Q2'25 Q4'25 Q2'26 Current
Tax Burden (NI/EBT) 0.76 0.88 0.83 0.79 0.78 0.73 0.73 0.73 0.73 0.73 0.725
Interest Burden (EBT/EBIT) 0.76 0.67 0.73 1.00 1.09 1.28 1.49 1.50 1.23 0.98 0.978
EBIT Margin 0.16 0.12 0.13 0.11 0.11 0.13 0.13 0.16 0.17 0.16 0.165
Asset Turnover 0.39 0.72 1.29 1.62 1.70 1.58 1.58 1.54 1.59 1.50 1.496
Equity Multiplier 5.96 5.93 4.95 4.87 5.05 5.01 4.21 4.14 4.07 4.75 4.754
Per Share
Metric Trend Q4'21 Q2'22 Q4'22 Q2'23 Q4'23 Q2'24 Q4'24 Q2'25 Q4'25 Q2'26 Current
EPS (Diluted TTM) $0.12 $0.19 $0.33 $0.50 $0.55 $0.73 $0.91 $1.12 $0.99 $0.80 $0.80
Book Value/Share $0.56 $0.61 $0.65 $0.70 $0.79 $0.92 $1.23 $1.31 $1.24 $0.99 $1.00
Tangible Book/Share $-1.12 $-1.18 $-1.10 $-1.02 $0.31 $0.40 $0.65 $-0.57 $-0.68 $-1.17 $-1.17
Revenue/Share $1.29 $2.59 $4.13 $5.53 $5.74 $5.96 $6.24 $6.37 $6.62 $6.85 $3.50
FCF/Share $0.11 $0.23 $0.57 $0.65 $0.85 $0.79 $0.86 $0.83 $0.91 $0.87 $0.41
OCF/Share $0.23 $0.36 $0.70 $0.83 $0.77 $0.71 $0.79 $0.73 $0.95 $0.92 $0.43
Cash/Share $0.16 $0.43 $0.12 $0.15 $0.13 $0.12 $0.15 $0.14 $0.02 $0.13 $0.13
EBITDA/Share $0.23 $0.38 $0.66 $0.79 $0.83 $0.96 $1.05 $1.24 $1.33 $1.38 $1.38
Debt/Share $0.85 $1.18 $0.73 $0.87 $0.67 $0.97 $0.52 $1.00 $0.93 $1.52 $1.52
Net Debt/Share $0.69 $0.75 $0.61 $0.72 $0.54 $0.84 $0.37 $0.86 $0.91 $1.38 $1.38
Academic Models
Metric Trend Q4'21 Q2'22 Q4'22 Q2'23 Q4'23 Q2'24 Q4'24 Q2'25 Q4'25 Q2'26 Current
Altman Z-Score — — — — — — — — — — —
Piotroski F-Score 4 4 4 4 7 5 6 6 4 6 6
Beneish M-Score — — — — -2.53 -2.24 -2.06 -1.76 -1.98 -2.15 -2.155
Ohlson O-Score snapshot only -6.527
Net-Net WC snapshot only $-2.56
EVA snapshot only $2061438755.77
Credit
Metric Trend Q4'21 Q2'22 Q4'22 Q2'23 Q4'23 Q2'24 Q4'24 Q2'25 Q4'25 Q2'26 Current
Credit Rating snapshot only A
Credit Score 57.10 59.60 77.25 77.25 80.25 77.25 81.75 80.25 79.00 74.75 74.750
Credit Grade snapshot only 6
Credit Trend snapshot only -2.500
Implied Spread (bps) snapshot only 150.000

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