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FLY NASDAQ

Firefly Aerospace Inc.
1W: +9.7% 1M: -25.1% 3M: -5.5% YTD: -23.2% 1Y: -29.7%
$19.89
+1.65 (+9.01%)
After Hours: $19.95 (+0.05, +0.28%)
Weekly Expected Move ±9.0%
$15 $17 $18 $20 $22
NASDAQ · Industrials · Aerospace & Defense · Tech Score Sell · Power 36 · $3.1B mcap · 145M float · 2.49% daily turnover · Short 68% of daily vol
Credit Risk of going bust: higher than 60% of companies Debt: 1.7% of company value Bonds: none of note held by US funds details ▾
Of US companies ranked in the middle of the pack, about 1 in 580 filed for bankruptcy within a year (2020-2025).
If the stock fell to about $0.05 (down 99.7%), Firefly Aerospace Inc. would be worth roughly what it owes.
Total debt $53.4M against a stock market value of $3.06B.
Distance to default 4.21 (Merton model): prices to 2026-10-26, balance sheet 2026-06-30, debt counted $21.3M (short-term plus half of long-term), stock volatility 106.4%; Altman Z 3.13. A ranking and a back-test, not a forecast.
US fund filings (SEC N-PORT) show under $25M of this company's bonds, so there is no bond page. Its debt may be bank loans or privately placed. How these are computed.

Edge Score

Quantitative competitive moat analysis scoring five pillars of durable advantage — cost leadership, brand intangibles, switching costs, network effects, and efficient scale — using industry percentile rankings on a 0–100 scale.

WEAK EDGE
44.4 / 100
NoneWeakNarrowWide
Primary source: Switching Costs  ·  ROIC: -41.2%
Cost Advantage
42
Intangibles
47
Switching Cost
59
Network Effect
28
Scale
35
The Edge Score quantifies a company's competitive moat using five pillars: Cost Advantage (20%, operating margin and SG&A efficiency vs industry peers), Intangible Assets (25%, gross margin premium, R&D intensity, brand pricing power), Switching Costs (25%, revenue stability, earnings consistency, customer retention proxied by operating leverage), Network Effects (15%, revenue growth with expanding margins, market share dominance), and Efficient Scale (15%, market concentration, ROIC sustainability). Each pillar is scored 0–100 using industry percentile rankings, then weighted into a composite. Wide ≥ 70, Narrow ≥ 55, Weak ≥ 40, None < 40. FLY shows a Weak competitive edge (44.4/100) — limited structural advantages that may face competitive pressure. The primary source of advantage is Switching Costs. Negative ROIC of -41.2% indicates the company is currently destroying value, though this may reflect a growth investment phase.

Analyst Insights

Wall Street analyst consensus based on price targets and buy/sell/hold recommendations from institutional research coverage over the trailing 12 months.

Analyst Price Targets
$35
Low
$40
Avg Target
$45
High
Based on 2 analysts since Aug 11, 2026 earnings
Analyst Recommendations
Strong Buy: 0Buy: 7Hold: 2Sell: 0Strong Sell: 0
Rating Summary
ConsensusBuy
Avg Target$40.00
Analysts2
Price Target Change History
DateFirmAnalystOldNewChangeUpside @ CallStock@Call
2026-08-12 Jefferies — $52 $35 -17 +32.8% $26.36
2026-08-12 Roth Capital Suji Desilva $60 $45 -15 +70.7% $26.36
2026-07-27 Wells Fargo David Strauss Initiated $25 — +27.0% $19.69
2026-06-14 KeyBanc — Initiated $50 — +56.9% $31.87
2026-06-02 Jefferies — $60 $52 -8 +19.9% $43.37
2026-05-05 Deutsche Bank — $40 $35 -5 +8.8% $32.18
2026-05-05 Morgan Stanley — $33 $37 +4 +15.8% $31.96
2026-04-17 Roth Capital Suji Desilva $40 $60 +20 +35.8% $44.17
2026-03-12 UBS — Initiated $33 — +37.1% $24.07
2026-01-20 Goldman Sachs — Initiated $32 — -4.2% $33.41
2026-01-16 Morgan Stanley Kristine Liwag $52 $33 -19 +10.9% $29.75
2025-10-06 Deutsche Bank — $45 $40 -5 +46.1% $27.37
2025-09-30 Roth Capital — Initiated $40 — +37.6% $29.06
2025-09-02 Deutsche Bank — Initiated $45 — +1.7% $44.23
2025-09-02 Morgan Stanley — Initiated $52 — +17.6% $44.23
2025-09-01 Jefferies — Initiated $60 — +32.2% $45.37

Financial Rating

Composite financial health rating (A+ to F) based on discounted cash flow valuation, return on equity, return on assets, debt-to-equity leverage, and relative P/E and P/B multiples.

C
Oct 27, 2026
DCF
1
ROE
1
ROA
1
D/E
5
P/E
1
P/B
2
The Financial Rating evaluates six fundamental factors — discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation, return on equity (ROE), return on assets (ROA), debt-to-equity leverage (D/E), and relative price-to-earnings (P/E) and price-to-book (P/B) multiples — each scored 1–5. FLY receives an overall rating of C. Strongest factors: D/E (5/5). Areas of concern: DCF (1/5), ROE (1/5), ROA (1/5), P/E (1/5), P/B (2/5).
Rating Change History
DateFromTo
2026-10-12 C- C
2026-10-01 C C-
2026-05-20 C- C
2026-02-18 C C-
2026-01-30 C- C
2026-01-13 C C-

InsiderStreet Scorecard

Proprietary multi-factor scorecard rating companies across seven fundamental dimensions — profitability, balance sheet strength, earnings quality, growth, value, momentum, and safety — each scored 0–100.

★ ★ ★ ★ ★ 38 Grade D
Profitability
6
Balance Sheet
19
Earnings Quality
45
Growth
—
Value
45
Momentum
—
Safety
100
Cash Flow
30
The InsiderStreet Scorecard rates companies across eight dimensions: Profitability (margins, ROA, ROE), Balance Sheet (leverage, liquidity, coverage), Earnings Quality (accruals, cash conversion), Growth (revenue and earnings trajectory), Value (P/E, P/B, earnings yield, Graham criteria), Momentum (revenue and earnings acceleration), Safety (Altman Z-Score risk adjustment), and Cash Flow (operating cash flow quality, FCF conversion, cash coverage). The overall score blends 35% quality, 35% value, and 30% momentum, with a penalty for distress-zone Altman scores. FLY scores highest in Safety (100/100) and lowest in Profitability (6/100). A grade of D flags significant fundamental concerns across multiple dimensions.

Risk & Quality Signals

Academic financial models used by institutional investors to assess bankruptcy risk, earnings manipulation, financial strength, and credit quality.

Altman Z-Score
5.58
Safe Zone
Piotroski F-Score
2/9
✗ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✗ ✗
Beneish M-Score
—
—
Ohlson O-Score
-6.63
Bankruptcy prob: 0.1%
Low Risk
Credit Rating
BBB+
Score: 60.1/100
Earnings Quality
—
OCF/NI: 0.73x
Accruals: -6.0%
The Altman Z-Score (1968) combines five ratios — working capital, retained earnings, EBIT, market value of equity, and sales, all relative to total assets or liabilities — into a single bankruptcy predictor. FLY scores 5.58, placing it in the Safe Zone (safe > 2.99, distress < 1.81). Bankruptcy is statistically unlikely within the next two years. The Piotroski F-Score (2000) is a 9-point binary checklist — four profitability tests (positive ROA, positive cash flow, improving ROA, cash flow exceeding net income), three leverage tests (declining debt ratio, improving current ratio, no share dilution), and two efficiency tests (improving gross margin, improving asset turnover). Each pass scores 1 point. FLY scores 2/9, suggesting weak financial fundamentals — the company fails the majority of these accounting tests. The Ohlson O-Score (1980) is a 9-variable logistic regression that estimates bankruptcy probability using firm size, leverage, working capital, current ratio, profitability (ROA), cash flow coverage, negative equity flag, consecutive losses flag, and earnings trajectory. The raw score is converted to a probability via logistic transformation. FLY's implied 0.1% bankruptcy probability is well within safe territory. Our Credit Rating model scores companies on five weighted components — solvency (30%), earning power (25%), leverage (20%), liquidity (15%), and cash flow quality (10%) — then blends the absolute score with sector and industry peer rankings. For companies with large buyback programs, equity is adjusted by adding back cumulative 5-year repurchases (capped at 80% of FCF generated) to avoid penalizing shareholder-friendly capital allocation. FLY receives an estimated rating of BBB+ (score: 60.1/100).

Valuation

Key valuation multiples comparing the stock's market price to its earnings, revenue, book value, and cash flows. Lower multiples may indicate relative undervaluation versus peers.

P/E
-8.18x
PEG
0.09x
P/S
11.41x
P/B
2.59x
P/FCF
-14.57x
P/OCF
—
EV/EBITDA
-12.15x
EV/Revenue
14.54x
EV/EBIT
-10.72x
EV/FCF
-12.79x
Earnings Yield
-7.64%
FCF Yield
-6.86%
Shareholder Yield
0.10%
Graham Number
—
Equity-based multiples (P/E, P/B, P/FCF) compare the stock price to per-share fundamentals and are affected by capital structure. Enterprise value multiples (EV/EBITDA, EV/Revenue, EV/FCF) strip out debt and cash, making them more useful for cross-company comparisons regardless of how companies are financed. The Graham Number — √(22.5 × EPS × Book Value) — is Benjamin Graham's formula for the maximum price a defensive investor should pay. FLY currently has negative earnings — the P/E ratio is not meaningful.

DuPont Decomposition (5-Factor)

The 5-factor DuPont framework breaks Return on Equity into its component drivers — tax efficiency, interest burden, operating profitability, asset utilization, and financial leverage — to reveal what truly drives shareholder returns.

Tax Burden
0.907
NI / EBT
×
Interest Burden
1.029
EBT / EBIT
×
EBIT Margin
-1.357
EBIT / Rev
×
Asset Turnover
0.175
Rev / Assets
×
Equity Multiplier
1.340
Assets / Equity
=
ROE
-29.7%
The 5-factor DuPont identity decomposes ROE as: Tax Burden × Interest Burden × EBIT Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier = ROE. This reveals whether returns are driven by operating performance, financial leverage, or tax efficiency — three very different sources of profitability. FLY's ROE of -29.7% is driven by Asset Turnover (0.175), indicating efficient use of assets to generate revenue. A tax burden ratio of 0.91 indicates minimal tax leakage — the company retains over 90% of pre-tax earnings.

Graham-Dodd Adjusted Valuation

Our adaptation of Graham's growth formula (Fair P/E = 8.5 + 2g) from The Intelligent Investor. The classic version relies on analyst growth projections, which can be unreliable. This adjusted model substitutes the company's realized 3-year EPS CAGR — a backward-looking, verifiable measure of actual earnings power — grounding the valuation in demonstrated performance rather than forecasts.

Two adjustments we make, and why. Growth is capped at 15%. Graham defined g as expected growth over the next seven to ten years, not last year's rate. Across US companies since 1994 the median realized 7-year EPS growth is 5–8% regardless of how fast a company grew beforehand, and of 4,457 company-quarters that grew faster than 200%, none sustained it. Uncapped, the formula assigned fair multiples in the hundreds to companies that had never held that rate — and scored worse than simply reading the P/E. Capped, it carries real information. The verdict has three states, not two. Tested over 377,249 stock-months, this ratio only separates outcomes at its extremes: below 0.25 beat the universe by 1.3 points a year, above 3.0 lagged by 2.7, and everything in between sat inside a one-point band. Rather than call two-thirds of the market "undervalued" on a threshold of 1.0, we say Neutral where the model cannot tell — which is most of the time.

Adj. Growth Rate
0.00%
Fair P/E
8.50x
Intrinsic Value
—
Price/Value
—
Margin of Safety
—
Premium
—

Profitability Trends

Historical profitability ratios tracking how efficiently the company converts revenue into returns for shareholders over time.

Leverage & Solvency Trends

Debt and liquidity metrics showing the company's financial leverage and ability to meet short-term and long-term obligations.

Efficiency & Working Capital Trends

Operating efficiency metrics measuring how quickly the company converts inventory to sales, collects receivables, and manages its cash conversion cycle.

Growth Trends (YoY %)

Year-over-year growth rates for key financial metrics, showing the trajectory of revenue, earnings, and cash flow generation.

Earnings Stability

R-squared of linear regression measuring how predictably revenue, earnings, and margins follow a trend over the trailing 5 years. 1.0 = perfectly predictable; lower values indicate erratic or cyclical behavior.

Monte Carlo Price Simulation

Geometric Brownian Motion with 1,000 antithetic paths over 1 year, seeded from 308 days of historical volatility. Percentile bands show the range of statistically plausible outcomes — this is a statistical model, not a forecast.

Current Price
$19.90
Median 1Y
$4.63
5th Pctile
$0.93
95th Pctile
$23.01
Ann. Volatility
104.8%
Analyst Target
$40.00
25th–75th percentile 5th–95th percentile Median path Historical Analyst target

Executive Compensation

C-suite compensation breakdown including salary, stock awards, options, and incentive pay. The CEO-to-employee pay ratio and Gini coefficient measure pay distribution fairness.

C-Suite Compensation

ExecutiveSalaryStockTotal
Jason Kim
Chief Executive Officer
$488,462 $36,053,338 $38,219,515
Darren Ma Financial
ancial Officer
$408,308 $9,048,737 $11,326,441
Ramon Sanchez Operating
rating Officer
$13,077 $11,122,197 $11,311,909

CEO Pay Ratio

590:1
CEO-to-Employee Pay Ratio
CEO Total Comp: $38,219,515
Avg Employee Cost (SGA/emp): $64,759
Employees: 1,409

C-Suite Pay Equality (Gini)

CEO Compensation Mix

Workforce & Productivity

Workforce efficiency metrics measuring revenue, profit, and R&D spend per employee — key indicators of operational leverage and human capital productivity.

Employees
1,409
Revenue / Employee
$113,453
Rev: $159,855,000
Profit / Employee
$-211,739
NI: $-298,340,000
SGA / Employee
$64,759
Avg labor cost proxy
R&D / Employee
$142,028
Innovation spend

Scaling Efficiency

All Ratios & Metrics

Complete fundamental data with up to 20 periods of history, sparkline trends, and current values across 13 categories and 130+ financial metrics.

Profitability
Metric Trend Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Q2'26 Current
ROE -14.1% -14.7% -24.5% -29.7% -29.72%
ROA -10.6% -9.6% -18.2% -22.2% -22.17%
ROIC 18.2% -18.7% -31.1% -41.2% -41.17%
ROCE -12.1% -12.8% -24.4% -28.9% -28.93%
Gross Margin 27.6% 22.0% 12.7% 20.3% 20.29%
Operating Margin -2.0% -1.4% -1.2% -80.9% -80.89%
Net Margin -4.3% -71.2% -1.2% -78.4% -78.45%
EBITDA Margin -4.1% -1.1% -95.3% -65.1% -65.10%
FCF Margin -2.0% -1.6% -1.3% -1.1% -1.14%
OCF Margin -1.7% -1.4% -1.1% -92.1% -92.13%
ROIC Economic snapshot only -20.77%
Cash ROA snapshot only -16.13%
Cash ROIC snapshot only -41.25%
CROIC snapshot only -50.93%
NOPAT Margin snapshot only -91.96%
Pretax Margin snapshot only -1.40%
R&D / Revenue snapshot only 85.49%
SGA / Revenue snapshot only 50.18%
SBC / Revenue snapshot only 14.70%
Valuation
Metric Trend Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Q2'26 Current
P/E Ratio -32.56 -19.96 -16.76 -13.09 -8.184
P/S Ratio 141.12 39.36 26.84 16.57 11.409
P/B Ratio 4.58 2.93 4.11 3.89 2.588
P/FCF -70.09 -24.64 -20.64 -14.57 -14.568
P/OCF — — — — —
EV/EBITDA -26.82 -15.25 -15.15 -12.15 -12.146
EV/Revenue 110.20 32.76 23.90 14.54 14.545
EV/EBIT -25.68 -14.08 -13.54 -10.72 -10.720
EV/FCF -54.74 -20.51 -18.38 -12.79 -12.786
Earnings Yield -3.1% -5.0% -6.0% -7.6% -7.64%
FCF Yield -1.4% -4.1% -4.8% -6.9% -6.86%
PEG Ratio snapshot only 0.090
Price/Tangible Book snapshot only 7.879
EV/Gross Profit snapshot only 75.495
Shareholder Yield snapshot only 0.10%
Leverage & Solvency
Metric Trend Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Q2'26 Current
Current Ratio 6.20 4.51 2.53 2.73 2.727
Quick Ratio 6.20 4.51 2.53 2.73 2.727
Debt/Equity 0.05 0.26 0.05 0.04 0.044
Net Debt/Equity -1.00 -0.49 -0.45 -0.48 -0.476
Debt/Assets 0.04 0.17 0.04 0.03 0.033
Debt/EBITDA -0.35 -1.62 -0.20 -0.16 -0.155
Net Debt/EBITDA 7.52 3.08 1.87 1.69 1.693
Interest Coverage -99.01 -35.78 -31.94 -34.92 -34.918
Equity Multiplier 1.32 1.53 1.35 1.34 1.340
Cash Ratio snapshot only 2.167
Debt Service Coverage snapshot only -30.820
Cash to Debt snapshot only 11.897
FCF to Debt snapshot only -6.114
Defensive Interval snapshot only 668.6 days
Efficiency & Turnover
Metric Trend Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Q2'26 Current
Asset Turnover 0.02 0.05 0.11 0.18 0.175
Inventory Turnover — — — — —
Receivables Turnover 6.00 1.92 3.78 3.68 3.677
Payables Turnover 0.71 1.87 3.36 3.91 3.910
DSO 61 190 97 99 99.3 days
DIO 0 0 0 0 0.0 days
DPO 511 195 109 93 93.4 days
Cash Conversion Cycle -450 -5 -12 6 5.9 days
Fixed Asset Turnover snapshot only 1.381
Cash Velocity snapshot only 0.452
Capital Intensity snapshot only 5.711
Growth Quality
Metric Trend Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Q2'26 Current
Revenue Stability — — — — —
Earnings Stability — — — — —
Margin Stability — — — — —
Rev. Growth Consistency 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000
Earn. Growth Consistency 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000
FCF Positive Streak 0 0 0 0 0
Earnings Persistence — — — — —
Earnings Smoothness — — — — —
ROE Trend — — — — —
Gross Margin Trend — — — — —
FCF Margin Trend — — — — —
Sustainable Growth Rate — — — — —
Internal Growth Rate — — — — —
Cash Flow Quality
Metric Trend Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Q2'26 Current
OCF/Net Income 0.40 0.69 0.67 0.73 0.727
FCF/OCF 1.17 1.17 1.20 1.23 1.235
FCF/Net Income snapshot only 0.898
CapEx/Revenue 29.0% 23.7% 22.0% 21.6% 21.63%
CapEx/Depreciation snapshot only 1.358
Accruals Ratio -0.06 -0.03 -0.06 -0.06 -0.060
Sloan Accruals snapshot only -0.100
Cash Flow Adequacy snapshot only -3.942
Dividends & Buybacks
Metric Trend Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Q2'26 Current
Dividend Yield 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.00%
Dividend/Share $0.03 $0.03 $0.03 $0.03 $0.00
Payout Ratio — — — — —
FCF Payout Ratio — — — — —
Total Payout Ratio — — — — —
Div. Increase Streak 0 0 0 0 0
Chowder Number — — — — —
Buyback Yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.00%
Net Buyback Yield -22.9% -28.2% -21.6% -24.8% -24.79%
Total Shareholder Return -22.7% -28.0% -21.5% -24.7% -24.69%
DuPont Factors
Metric Trend Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Q2'26 Current
Tax Burden (NI/EBT) 1.00 0.82 0.88 0.91 0.907
Interest Burden (EBT/EBIT) 1.01 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.029
EBIT Margin -4.29 -2.33 -1.76 -1.36 -1.357
Asset Turnover 0.02 0.05 0.11 0.18 0.175
Equity Multiplier 1.32 1.53 1.35 1.34 1.340
Per Share
Metric Trend Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Q2'26 Current
EPS (Diluted TTM) $-0.90 $-1.12 $-1.70 $-2.25 $-2.25
Book Value/Share $6.40 $7.65 $6.92 $7.56 $7.56
Tangible Book/Share $6.29 $3.69 $3.08 $3.73 $3.73
Revenue/Share $0.21 $0.57 $1.06 $1.77 $1.77
FCF/Share $-0.42 $-0.91 $-1.38 $-2.02 $-2.02
OCF/Share $-0.36 $-0.77 $-1.15 $-1.63 $-1.63
Cash/Share $6.72 $5.74 $3.46 $3.93 $3.93
EBITDA/Share $-0.85 $-1.22 $-1.67 $-2.12 $-2.12
Debt/Share $0.30 $1.98 $0.33 $0.33 $0.33
Net Debt/Share $-6.42 $-3.75 $-3.12 $-3.60 $-3.60
Academic Models
Metric Trend Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Q2'26 Current
Altman Z-Score — — — — 5.584
Altman Z-Prime snapshot only 10.021
Piotroski F-Score 2 2 2 2 2
Beneish M-Score — — — — —
Ohlson O-Score snapshot only -6.629
ROIC (Greenblatt) snapshot only -54.54%
Net-Net WC snapshot only $2.37
EVA snapshot only $-328039270.00
Credit
Metric Trend Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Q2'26 Current
Credit Rating snapshot only BBB+
Credit Score 61.39 49.30 60.55 60.15 60.149
Credit Grade snapshot only 8
Implied Spread (bps) snapshot only 225.000
Industry Credit Rank snapshot only 45
Sector Credit Rank snapshot only 51

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For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Data sourced from SEC filings. Privacy Terms