FLY NASDAQ
Firefly Aerospace Inc.
1W: +1.1%
1M: +3.4%
3M: +114.5%
YTD: +80.4%
$49.50
+6.64 (+15.49%)
Weekly Expected Move ±15.7%
$28
$34
$40
$47
$53
Overview
News
Chart
Smart Money
Financials
Income Statement
Cash Flow
Balance Sheet
Earnings
Dividends
Analysis
Technicals
Weather
Peers
ESG
Institutions
ETF Exposure
Dark Pool
Short Interest
Supply Chain
Edge Score
Quantitative competitive moat analysis scoring five pillars of durable advantage — cost leadership, brand intangibles, switching costs, network effects, and efficient scale — using industry percentile rankings on a 0–100 scale.
WEAK EDGE
40.2 / 100
NoneWeakNarrowWide
Cost Advantage
26
Intangibles
43
Switching Cost
59
Network Effect
28
Scale
35
The Edge Score quantifies a company's competitive moat using five pillars: Cost Advantage (20%, operating margin and SG&A efficiency vs industry peers), Intangible Assets (25%, gross margin premium, R&D intensity, brand pricing power), Switching Costs (25%, revenue stability, earnings consistency, customer retention proxied by operating leverage), Network Effects (15%, revenue growth with expanding margins, market share dominance), and Efficient Scale (15%, market concentration, ROIC sustainability). Each pillar is scored 0–100 using industry percentile rankings, then weighted into a composite. Wide ≥ 70, Narrow ≥ 55, Weak ≥ 40, None < 40.
FLY shows a Weak competitive edge (40.2/100) — limited structural advantages that may face competitive pressure.
The primary source of advantage is Switching Costs.
Negative ROIC of -31.2% indicates the company is currently destroying value, though this may reflect a growth investment phase.
Analyst Insights
Wall Street analyst consensus based on price targets and buy/sell/hold recommendations from institutional research coverage over the trailing 12 months.
Analyst Price Targets
$35
Low
$36
Avg Target
$37
High
Based on 2 analysts since May 4, 2026 earnings
Analyst Recommendations
Strong Buy: 0Buy: 5Hold: 2Sell: 0Strong Sell: 0
Rating Summary
Price Target Change History
| Date | Firm | Analyst | Old | New | Change | Upside @ Call | Stock@Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-05 | Deutsche Bank | — | $40 | $35 | -5 | +8.8% | $32.18 |
| 2026-05-05 | Morgan Stanley | — | $33 | $37 | +4 | +15.8% | $31.96 |
| 2026-04-17 | Roth Capital | Suji Desilva | $40 | $60 | +20 | +35.8% | $44.17 |
| 2026-03-12 | UBS | — | Initiated | $33 | — | +37.1% | $24.07 |
| 2026-01-20 | Goldman Sachs | — | Initiated | $32 | — | -4.2% | $33.41 |
| 2026-01-16 | Morgan Stanley | Kristine Liwag | $52 | $33 | -19 | +10.9% | $29.75 |
| 2025-10-06 | Deutsche Bank | — | $45 | $40 | -5 | +46.1% | $27.37 |
| 2025-09-30 | Roth Capital | — | Initiated | $40 | — | +37.6% | $29.06 |
| 2025-09-02 | Deutsche Bank | — | Initiated | $45 | — | +1.7% | $44.23 |
| 2025-09-02 | Morgan Stanley | — | Initiated | $52 | — | +17.6% | $44.23 |
| 2025-09-01 | Jefferies | — | Initiated | $60 | — | +32.2% | $45.37 |
Financial Rating
Composite financial health rating (A+ to F) based on discounted cash flow valuation, return on equity, return on assets, debt-to-equity leverage, and relative P/E and P/B multiples.
The Financial Rating evaluates six fundamental factors — discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation, return on equity (ROE), return on assets (ROA), debt-to-equity leverage (D/E), and relative price-to-earnings (P/E) and price-to-book (P/B) multiples — each scored 1–5.
FLY receives an overall rating of C.
Strongest factors: D/E (4/5).
Areas of concern: DCF (1/5), ROE (1/5), ROA (1/5), P/E (1/5), P/B (2/5).
Rating Change History
| Date | From | To |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-20 | C- | C |
| 2026-02-18 | C | C- |
| 2026-01-30 | C- | C |
| 2026-01-13 | C | C- |
InsiderStreet Scorecard
Proprietary multi-factor scorecard rating companies across seven fundamental dimensions — profitability, balance sheet strength, earnings quality, growth, value, momentum, and safety — each scored 0–100.
★
★
★
★
★
38
Grade D
The InsiderStreet Scorecard rates companies across eight dimensions: Profitability (margins, ROA, ROE), Balance Sheet (leverage, liquidity, coverage), Earnings Quality (accruals, cash conversion), Growth (revenue and earnings trajectory), Value (P/E, P/B, earnings yield, Graham criteria), Momentum (revenue and earnings acceleration), Safety (Altman Z-Score risk adjustment), and Cash Flow (operating cash flow quality, FCF conversion, cash coverage). The overall score blends 35% quality, 35% value, and 30% momentum, with a penalty for distress-zone Altman scores.
FLY scores highest in Safety (90/100) and lowest in Profitability (4/100).
A grade of D flags significant fundamental concerns across multiple dimensions.
Risk & Quality Signals
Academic financial models used by institutional investors to assess bankruptcy risk, earnings manipulation, financial strength, and credit quality.
Altman Z-Score
3.54
Safe Zone
Piotroski F-Score
2/9
✗
✗
✗
✓
✗
✗
✓
✗
✗
Beneish M-Score
—
—
Ohlson O-Score
-7.07
Bankruptcy prob: 0.1%
Low Risk
Credit Rating
BBB
Score: 56.7/100
Earnings Quality
—
OCF/NI: 0.67x
Accruals: -4.8%
The Altman Z-Score (1968) combines five ratios — working capital, retained earnings, EBIT, market value of equity, and sales, all relative to total assets or liabilities — into a single bankruptcy predictor.
FLY scores 3.54, placing it in the Safe Zone (safe > 2.99, distress < 1.81).
Bankruptcy is statistically unlikely within the next two years.
The Piotroski F-Score (2000) is a 9-point binary checklist — four profitability tests (positive ROA, positive cash flow, improving ROA, cash flow exceeding net income), three leverage tests (declining debt ratio, improving current ratio, no share dilution), and two efficiency tests (improving gross margin, improving asset turnover). Each pass scores 1 point.
FLY scores 2/9, suggesting weak financial fundamentals — the company fails the majority of these accounting tests.
The Ohlson O-Score (1980) is a 9-variable logistic regression that estimates bankruptcy probability using firm size, leverage, working capital, current ratio, profitability (ROA), cash flow coverage, negative equity flag, consecutive losses flag, and earnings trajectory. The raw score is converted to a probability via logistic transformation.
FLY's implied 0.1% bankruptcy probability is well within safe territory.
Our Credit Rating model scores companies on five weighted components — solvency (30%), earning power (25%), leverage (20%), liquidity (15%), and cash flow quality (10%) — then blends the absolute score with sector and industry peer rankings. For companies with large buyback programs, equity is adjusted by adding back cumulative 5-year repurchases (capped at 80% of FCF generated) to avoid penalizing shareholder-friendly capital allocation.
FLY receives an estimated rating of BBB (score: 56.7/100).
Valuation
Key valuation multiples comparing the stock's market price to its earnings, revenue, book value, and cash flows. Lower multiples may indicate relative undervaluation versus peers.
P/E
-23.59x
PEG
0.40x
P/S
42.90x
P/B
7.15x
P/FCF
-20.64x
P/OCF
—
EV/EBITDA
-14.30x
EV/Revenue
23.39x
EV/EBIT
-12.83x
EV/FCF
-17.99x
Earnings Yield
-5.97%
FCF Yield
-4.84%
Shareholder Yield
0.11%
Graham Number
—
Equity-based multiples (P/E, P/B, P/FCF) compare the stock price to per-share fundamentals and are affected by capital structure. Enterprise value multiples (EV/EBITDA, EV/Revenue, EV/FCF) strip out debt and cash, making them more useful for cross-company comparisons regardless of how companies are financed. The Graham Number — √(22.5 × EPS × Book Value) — is Benjamin Graham's formula for the maximum price a defensive investor should pay.
FLY currently has negative earnings — the P/E ratio is not meaningful.
DuPont Decomposition (5-Factor)
The 5-factor DuPont framework breaks Return on Equity into its component drivers — tax efficiency, interest burden, operating profitability, asset utilization, and financial leverage — to reveal what truly drives shareholder returns.
Tax Burden
0.880
NI / EBT
Interest Burden
0.998
EBT / EBIT
EBIT Margin
-1.824
EBIT / Rev
Asset Turnover
0.093
Rev / Assets
Equity Multiplier
1.534
Assets / Equity
ROE
-22.8%
The 5-factor DuPont identity decomposes ROE as: Tax Burden × Interest Burden × EBIT Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier = ROE. This reveals whether returns are driven by operating performance, financial leverage, or tax efficiency — three very different sources of profitability.
FLY's ROE of -22.8% is driven by
Asset Turnover (0.093), indicating efficient use of assets to generate revenue.
Graham-Dodd Adjusted Valuation
Our adaptation of Graham's growth formula (Fair P/E = 8.5 + 2g) from The Intelligent Investor. The classic version relies on analyst growth projections, which can be unreliable. This adjusted model substitutes the company's realized 3-year EPS CAGR — a backward-looking, verifiable measure of actual earnings power — grounding the valuation in demonstrated performance rather than forecasts.
Adj. Growth Rate
0.00%
Fair P/E
8.50x
Intrinsic Value
—
Price/Value
—
Margin of Safety
—
Premium
—
Assessment
Overvalued
Profitability Trends
Historical profitability ratios tracking how efficiently the company converts revenue into returns for shareholders over time.
Leverage & Solvency Trends
Debt and liquidity metrics showing the company's financial leverage and ability to meet short-term and long-term obligations.
Efficiency & Working Capital Trends
Operating efficiency metrics measuring how quickly the company converts inventory to sales, collects receivables, and manages its cash conversion cycle.
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Year-over-year growth rates for key financial metrics, showing the trajectory of revenue, earnings, and cash flow generation.
Earnings Stability
R-squared of linear regression measuring how predictably revenue, earnings, and margins follow a trend over the trailing 5 years. 1.0 = perfectly predictable; lower values indicate erratic or cyclical behavior.
Monte Carlo Price Simulation
Geometric Brownian Motion with 1,000 antithetic paths over 1 year, seeded from 200 days of historical volatility. Percentile bands show the range of statistically plausible outcomes — this is a statistical model, not a forecast.
Current Price
$49.50
Median 1Y
$21.08
5th Pctile
$3.92
95th Pctile
$113.35
Ann. Volatility
110.0%
Analyst Target
$41.25
25th–75th percentile
5th–95th percentile
Median path
Historical
Analyst target
Executive Compensation
C-suite compensation breakdown including salary, stock awards, options, and incentive pay. The CEO-to-employee pay ratio and Gini coefficient measure pay distribution fairness.
C-Suite Compensation
| Executive | Salary | Stock | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Jason Kim Chief Executive Officer |
$488,462 | $36,053,338 | $38,219,515 |
Darren Ma Financial ancial Officer |
$408,308 | $9,048,737 | $11,326,441 |
Ramon Sanchez Operating rating Officer |
$13,077 | $11,122,197 | $11,311,909 |
CEO Pay Ratio
590:1
CEO-to-Employee Pay Ratio
CEO Total Comp: $38,219,515
Avg Employee Cost (SGA/emp): $64,759
Employees: 1,409
C-Suite Pay Equality (Gini)
CEO Compensation Mix
Workforce & Productivity
Workforce efficiency metrics measuring revenue, profit, and R&D spend per employee — key indicators of operational leverage and human capital productivity.
Employees
1,409
Revenue / Employee
$113,453
Rev: $159,855,000
Profit / Employee
$-211,739
NI: $-298,340,000
SGA / Employee
$64,759
Avg labor cost proxy
R&D / Employee
$142,028
Innovation spend
Scaling Efficiency
All Ratios & Metrics
Complete fundamental data with up to 20 periods of history, sparkline trends, and current values across 13 categories and 130+ financial metrics.
Profitability
| Metric | Trend | Q3'25 | Q4'25 | Q1'26 | Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ROE | 17.4% | -14.7% | -22.8% | -22.79% | |
| ROA | -32.8% | -9.6% | -14.9% | -14.86% | |
| ROIC | 6.8% | -18.7% | -31.2% | -31.17% | |
| ROCE | -57.9% | -13.2% | -19.2% | -19.16% | |
| Gross Margin | 27.6% | 22.0% | 12.7% | 12.69% | |
| Operating Margin | -2.0% | -1.4% | -1.2% | -1.18% | |
| Net Margin | -4.3% | -71.2% | -1.2% | -1.20% | |
| EBITDA Margin | -4.1% | -1.2% | -98.6% | -98.58% | |
| FCF Margin | -2.0% | -1.6% | -1.3% | -1.30% | |
| OCF Margin | -1.7% | -1.4% | -1.1% | -1.08% | |
| ROIC Economic | snapshot only | -12.62% | |||
| Cash ROA | snapshot only | -10.02% | |||
| Cash ROIC | snapshot only | -30.20% | |||
| CROIC | snapshot only | -36.36% | |||
| NOPAT Margin | snapshot only | -1.11% | |||
| Pretax Margin | snapshot only | -1.82% | |||
| R&D / Revenue | snapshot only | 1.03% | |||
| SGA / Revenue | snapshot only | 56.98% | |||
| SBC / Revenue | snapshot only | 14.86% | |||
Valuation
| Metric | Trend | Q3'25 | Q4'25 | Q1'26 | Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -32.56 | -19.96 | -16.76 | -23.594 | |
| P/S Ratio | 141.12 | 39.36 | 26.84 | 42.902 | |
| P/B Ratio | -5.66 | 2.93 | 3.82 | 7.152 | |
| P/FCF | -70.09 | -24.64 | -20.64 | -20.641 | |
| P/OCF | — | — | — | — | |
| EV/EBITDA | -34.70 | -14.69 | -14.30 | -14.296 | |
| EV/Revenue | 142.58 | 32.76 | 23.39 | 23.389 | |
| EV/EBIT | -33.23 | -13.60 | -12.83 | -12.826 | |
| EV/FCF | -70.82 | -20.51 | -17.99 | -17.987 | |
| Earnings Yield | -3.1% | -5.0% | -6.0% | -5.97% | |
| FCF Yield | -1.4% | -4.1% | -4.8% | -4.84% | |
| PEG Ratio | snapshot only | 0.404 | |||
| Price/Tangible Book | snapshot only | 7.916 | |||
| EV/Gross Profit | snapshot only | 126.048 | |||
| Shareholder Yield | snapshot only | 0.11% | |||
Leverage & Solvency
| Metric | Trend | Q3'25 | Q4'25 | Q1'26 | Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.01 | 4.51 | 4.51 | 4.510 | |
| Quick Ratio | 1.01 | 4.51 | 4.51 | 4.510 | |
| Debt/Equity | -0.22 | 0.26 | 0.26 | 0.259 | |
| Net Debt/Equity | — | -0.49 | -0.49 | -0.491 | |
| Debt/Assets | 0.41 | 0.17 | 0.17 | 0.169 | |
| Debt/EBITDA | -1.33 | -1.56 | -1.11 | -1.114 | |
| Net Debt/EBITDA | -0.36 | 2.96 | 2.11 | 2.109 | |
| Interest Coverage | -99.01 | -37.04 | -33.00 | -32.996 | |
| Equity Multiplier | -0.53 | 1.53 | 1.53 | 1.534 | |
| Cash Ratio | snapshot only | 4.181 | |||
| Debt Service Coverage | snapshot only | -29.604 | |||
| Cash to Debt | snapshot only | 2.894 | |||
| FCF to Debt | snapshot only | -0.714 | |||
| Defensive Interval | snapshot only | 1268.0 days | |||
Efficiency & Turnover
| Metric | Trend | Q3'25 | Q4'25 | Q1'26 | Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asset Turnover | 0.08 | 0.05 | 0.09 | 0.093 | |
| Inventory Turnover | — | — | — | — | |
| Receivables Turnover | 30.66 | 1.92 | 3.67 | 3.671 | |
| Payables Turnover | 0.59 | 1.87 | 3.84 | 3.835 | |
| DSO | 12 | 190 | 99 | 99.4 days | |
| DIO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 days | |
| DPO | 618 | 195 | 95 | 95.2 days | |
| Cash Conversion Cycle | -606 | -5 | 4 | 4.3 days | |
| Fixed Asset Turnover | snapshot only | 0.933 | |||
| Cash Velocity | snapshot only | 0.190 | |||
| Capital Intensity | snapshot only | 10.777 | |||
Growth Quality
| Metric | Trend | Q3'25 | Q4'25 | Q1'26 | Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Stability | — | — | — | — | |
| Earnings Stability | — | — | — | — | |
| Margin Stability | — | — | — | — | |
| Rev. Growth Consistency | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.000 | |
| Earn. Growth Consistency | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.000 | |
| FCF Positive Streak | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Earnings Persistence | — | — | — | — | |
| Earnings Smoothness | — | — | — | — | |
| ROE Trend | — | — | — | — | |
| Gross Margin Trend | — | — | — | — | |
| FCF Margin Trend | — | — | — | — | |
| Sustainable Growth Rate | — | — | — | — | |
| Internal Growth Rate | — | — | — | — |
Cash Flow Quality
| Metric | Trend | Q3'25 | Q4'25 | Q1'26 | Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OCF/Net Income | 0.40 | 0.69 | 0.67 | 0.674 | |
| FCF/OCF | 1.17 | 1.17 | 1.20 | 1.204 | |
| FCF/Net Income | snapshot only | 0.812 | |||
| CapEx/Revenue | 29.0% | 23.7% | 22.0% | 22.05% | |
| CapEx/Depreciation | snapshot only | 1.176 | |||
| Accruals Ratio | -0.20 | -0.03 | -0.05 | -0.048 | |
| Sloan Accruals | snapshot only | -0.091 | |||
| Cash Flow Adequacy | snapshot only | -4.320 | |||
Dividends & Buybacks
| Metric | Trend | Q3'25 | Q4'25 | Q1'26 | Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.00% | |
| Dividend/Share | $0.03 | $0.03 | $0.03 | $0.00 | |
| Payout Ratio | — | — | — | — | |
| FCF Payout Ratio | — | — | — | — | |
| Total Payout Ratio | — | — | — | — | |
| Div. Increase Streak | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chowder Number | — | — | — | — | |
| Buyback Yield | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.00% | |
| Net Buyback Yield | -22.9% | -28.2% | -21.6% | -21.61% | |
| Total Shareholder Return | -22.7% | -28.0% | -21.5% | -21.50% |
DuPont Factors
| Metric | Trend | Q3'25 | Q4'25 | Q1'26 | Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tax Burden (NI/EBT) | 1.00 | 0.82 | 0.88 | 0.880 | |
| Interest Burden (EBT/EBIT) | 1.01 | 0.99 | 1.00 | 0.998 | |
| EBIT Margin | -4.29 | -2.41 | -1.82 | -1.824 | |
| Asset Turnover | 0.08 | 0.05 | 0.09 | 0.093 | |
| Equity Multiplier | -0.53 | 1.53 | 1.53 | 1.534 |
Per Share
| Metric | Trend | Q3'25 | Q4'25 | Q1'26 | Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS (Diluted TTM) | $-0.90 | $-1.12 | $-1.70 | $-1.70 | |
| Book Value/Share | $-5.18 | $7.65 | $7.45 | $6.92 | |
| Tangible Book/Share | $-5.30 | $3.69 | $3.60 | $3.60 | |
| Revenue/Share | $0.21 | $0.57 | $1.06 | $1.16 | |
| FCF/Share | $-0.42 | $-0.91 | $-1.38 | $-1.61 | |
| OCF/Share | $-0.36 | $-0.77 | $-1.15 | $-1.32 | |
| Cash/Share | $0.83 | $5.74 | $5.59 | $3.46 | |
| EBITDA/Share | $-0.85 | $-1.27 | $-1.74 | $-1.74 | |
| Debt/Share | $1.14 | $1.98 | $1.93 | $1.93 | |
| Net Debt/Share | $0.30 | $-3.75 | $-3.66 | $-3.66 |
Academic Models
| Metric | Trend | Q3'25 | Q4'25 | Q1'26 | Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Altman Z-Score | — | — | — | 3.539 | |
| Altman Z-Prime | snapshot only | 7.250 | |||
| Piotroski F-Score | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |
| Beneish M-Score | — | — | — | — | |
| Ohlson O-Score | snapshot only | -7.072 | |||
| ROIC (Greenblatt) | snapshot only | -33.17% | |||
| Net-Net WC | snapshot only | $2.06 | |||
| EVA | snapshot only | $-249283640.00 | |||
Credit
| Metric | Trend | Q3'25 | Q4'25 | Q1'26 | Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Credit Rating | snapshot only | BBB | |||
| Credit Score | 18.88 | 49.26 | 56.69 | 56.692 | |
| Credit Grade | snapshot only | 9 | |||
| Implied Spread (bps) | snapshot only | 275.000 | |||
| Industry Credit Rank | snapshot only | 43 | |||
| Sector Credit Rank | snapshot only | 45 | |||