FLY NASDAQ
Firefly Aerospace Inc.
1W: +9.7%
1M: -25.1%
3M: -5.5%
YTD: -23.2%
1Y: -29.7%
$19.89
+1.65 (+9.01%)
After Hours: $19.95 (+0.05, +0.28%)
Weekly Expected Move ±9.0%
$15
$17
$18
$20
$22
Credit Risk of going bust: higher than 60% of companies Debt: 1.7% of company value Bonds: none of note held by US funds details ▾
Of US companies ranked in the middle of the pack, about 1 in 580 filed for bankruptcy within a year (2020-2025).
If the stock fell to about $0.05 (down 99.7%), Firefly Aerospace Inc. would be worth roughly what it owes.
Total debt $53.4M against a stock market value of $3.06B.
Distance to default 4.21 (Merton model): prices to 2026-10-26, balance sheet 2026-06-30, debt counted $21.3M (short-term plus half of long-term), stock volatility 106.4%; Altman Z 3.13. A ranking and a back-test, not a forecast.
US fund filings (SEC N-PORT) show under $25M of this company's bonds, so there is no bond page. Its debt may be bank loans or privately placed. How these are computed.
If the stock fell to about $0.05 (down 99.7%), Firefly Aerospace Inc. would be worth roughly what it owes.
Total debt $53.4M against a stock market value of $3.06B.
Distance to default 4.21 (Merton model): prices to 2026-10-26, balance sheet 2026-06-30, debt counted $21.3M (short-term plus half of long-term), stock volatility 106.4%; Altman Z 3.13. A ranking and a back-test, not a forecast.
US fund filings (SEC N-PORT) show under $25M of this company's bonds, so there is no bond page. Its debt may be bank loans or privately placed. How these are computed.
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Technical Signal Summary
Technical Signal
LEAN BEARISH
-18
BearishNeutralBullish
Trend (30%)
22
Momentum (25%)
60
Volume (20%)
44
Volatility (10%)
33
Patterns (15%)
50
Price vs SMA 20$19.54
Price vs SMA 50$21.22
Price vs SMA 200$27.35
EMA 9/21 Cross18.40/19.28
SMA 50/200 CrossDeath
ADX DirectionADX 24
Supertrend$20.72
Parabolic SAR$16.05
SMA Slope-0.150
RSI51.0
Stochastic K/D45/32
Williams %R-30
CCI-4
TSI vs Signal-20.2
CMO2.0
ROC8.51%
OBV SignalDistrib
Chaikin MF-0.220
MFI28
Force Index682.2K
Elder Ray Bull0.87
FLY is trading above its 20-day but below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, showing a mixed trend. The 50-day MA is below the 200-day MA (death cross active). RSI at 51 is neutral. Volume analysis shows OBV is declining (distribution) with Chaikin Money Flow negative at -0.220. The squeeze is off with negative momentum, suggesting downward pressure. ADX at 24 suggests the market is range-bound. Price is 68.0% below its 52-week high. No significant candlestick patterns detected today.
Moving Average Ribbon & Trend
| Moving Average | Value | Distance | % Distance | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMA 20 | $19.54 | +$0.36 | +1.84% | Bullish |
| SMA 50 | $21.22 | $1.32 | -6.22% | Bearish |
| SMA 200 | $27.35 | $7.45 | -27.24% | Bearish |
| EMA 9 | $18.40 | +$1.50 | +8.15% | Bullish |
| EMA 21 | $19.28 | +$0.62 | +3.22% | Bullish |
| EMA 50 | $21.11 | $1.21 | -5.73% | Bearish |
| EMA 200 | $26.00 | $6.10 | -23.46% | Bearish |
| VWMA 20 | $19.98 | $0.08 | -0.40% | Bearish |
| WMA 20 | $18.50 | +$1.40 | +7.57% | Bullish |
| DEMA 21 | $17.77 | +$2.13 | +11.99% | Bullish |
| TEMA 21 | $17.44 | +$2.46 | +14.11% | Bullish |
Momentum Dashboard
Volume & Flow Analysis
Under Distribution
OBV: Distribution
CMF: Selling Pressure
Volatility & Range
52-Week
68.0% from high
20-Day
19.6% from high
Bollinger
54th pctile
Donchian
45th pctile
Turtle Long Stop: $20.88
Turtle Short Stop: $20.28
S2
$17.12
S1
$17.68
Pivot
$18.30
R1
$18.86
R2
$19.48
Candlestick Pattern Scanner
No candlestick patterns detected today.
Bullish Patterns
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3 White Soldiers
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Morning Star
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Bullish Engulfing
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Hammer
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Inverted Hammer
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Piercing Line
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Bullish Harami
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Abandoned Baby
Bearish Patterns
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3 Black Crows
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Evening Star
—
Bearish Engulfing
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Dark Cloud Cover
—
Bearish Harami
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2 Black Gapping
Neutral
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Doji