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FWRG NASDAQ

First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc.
1W: -7.3% 1M: +9.3% 3M: -16.0% YTD: -27.9% 1Y: -39.4% 3Y: -36.5% 5Y: -47.8%
$11.09
+0.03 (+0.27%)
 
Weekly Expected Move ±7.6%
$9 $10 $11 $12 $13
NASDAQ · Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants · Tech Score Neutral · Power 54 · $684.4M mcap · 60M float · 2.09% daily turnover · Short 43% of daily vol
Credit Risk of going bust: higher than 67% of companies Debt: 61.1% of company value Bonds: none of note held by US funds details ▾
Of US companies ranked in the middle of the pack, about 1 in 580 filed for bankruptcy within a year (2020-2025).
If the stock fell to about $0.49 (down 96%), First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. would be worth roughly what it owes.
Total debt $1.07B against a stock market value of $684.4M.
Distance to default 3.62 (Merton model): prices to 2026-10-27, balance sheet 2026-06-28, debt counted $153.7M (short-term plus half of long-term), stock volatility 54.7%; Altman Z'' 0.10. A ranking and a back-test, not a forecast.
US fund filings (SEC N-PORT) show under $25M of this company's bonds, so there is no bond page. Its debt may be bank loans or privately placed. How these are computed.
#32 of 93
Restaurants
Consumer Cyclical · Small Cap · 42 peers
Market Share
0.1%
Top 4 Concentration: 62.3%

Technical Signal Map

15 Bullish
3 Neutral
25 Bearish
FWRG $670M
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc.
LEAN BULL +16
CBRL $1.5B
Cracker Barrel Old Country Store
BULLISH +100
CNNE $710M
Cannae Holdings, Inc.
BULLISH +100
GGGSY $3.0B
Greggs plc
BULLISH +91
NATH $420M
Nathan's Famous, Inc.
BULLISH +87
DIN $390M
Dine Brands Global, Inc.
BULLISH +84
CHA $2.4B
Chagee Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares
BULLISH +82
SG $1.2B
Sweetgreen, Inc.
BULLISH +82
BROS $7.8B
Dutch Bros Inc.
BULLISH +78
MBPFF $2.5B
Mitchells & Butlers plc
BULLISH +66
PTLO $310M
Portillo's Inc.
BULLISH +60
WING $3.3B
Wingstop Inc.
BULLISH +52
BLMN $790M
Bloomin' Brands, Inc.
BULLISH +48
ALSSF $2.1B
Alsea, S.A.B. de C.V.
BULLISH +44
SGLOF $7.7B
Food & Life Companies Ltd.
LEAN BULL +24
JDWPY $1.4B
J D Wetherspoon plc
NEUTRAL +6
BH $1.3B
Biglari Holdings Inc.
NEUTRAL 0
SKLYF $2.4B
Skylark Holdings Co., Ltd.
NEUTRAL -8
DMZPY $1.6B
Domino's Pizza Enterprises Limited
LEAN BEAR -10
SSPPF $1.9B
SSP Group plc
LEAN BEAR -12
MDNDF $6.4B
McDonald's Holdings Company (Japan), Ltd.
LEAN BEAR -17
SHAK $2.6B
Shake Shack Inc.
LEAN BEAR -18
DPUKY $1.1B
Domino's Pizza Group plc
LEAN BEAR -18
MTYFF $520M
MTY Food Group Inc.
LEAN BEAR -18
CAKE $5.4B
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated
LEAN BEAR -20
ELROF $840M
Elior Group S.A.
LEAN BEAR -25
JBFCY $2.5B
Jollibee Foods Corporation
BEARISH -32
EAT $7.7B
Brinker International, Inc.
BEARISH -33
ARHOF $1.8B
AmRest Holdings SE
BEARISH -34
PC $270M
Premium Catering (Holdings) Limited
BEARISH -34
HDL $610M
SUPER HI INTERNATIONAL HOLDING Ltd. American Depositary Shares
BEARISH -41
LOCO $440M
El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc.
BEARISH -43
CAVA $6.2B
CAVA Group, Inc.
BEARISH -58
JMKE $3.9B
Jersey Mike's Subs Inc.
BEARISH -58
WEN $1.2B
The Wendy's Company
BEARISH -58
ARCO $1.7B
Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc.
BEARISH -75
BJRI $1.2B
BJ's Restaurants, Inc.
BEARISH -75
CLLFF $670M
Collins Foods Limited
BEARISH -82
MRTPY $480M
Marston's PLC
BEARISH -82
HDALF $6.2B
Haidilao International Holding Ltd.
BEARISH -91
KRUS $380M
Kura Sushi USA, Inc.
BEARISH -91
PZZA $600M
Papa John's International, Inc.
BEARISH -100
FMBRY $300M
Famous Brands Limited
BEARISH -100

Peer Comparison

Symbol Mkt Cap P/E ROE % ROIC % Net Mgn % Rev Grw % Piotroski Signal 1Y Ret %
FWRG First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. $670M 37.6 2.9 6.6 0.7 19.3 7 LEAN BULL -39.4
CBRL Cracker Barrel Old Country Store $1.5B 47.8 6.7 -0.5 1.4 -4.7 5 BULLISH 88.1
CNNE Cannae Holdings, Inc. $710M -5.5 -13.3 -8.5 36.7 -6.5 6 BULLISH -10.8
GGGSY Greggs plc $3.0B 17.9 21.8 13.6 5.1 6.6 6 BULLISH 27.4
NATH Nathan's Famous, Inc. $420M 21.0 -199.8 130.6 16.3 15.0 5 BULLISH -4.6
DIN Dine Brands Global, Inc. $390M 62.8 -2.7 7.3 1.7 6.4 5 BULLISH 15.3
CHA Chagee Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares $2.4B 11.7 16.5 81.6 13.7 294.2 4 BULLISH -29.4
SG Sweetgreen, Inc. $1.2B 93.7 3.1 -18.0 -13.6 -0.6 3 BULLISH 39.8
BROS Dutch Bros Inc. $7.8B 57.8 12.9 8.8 6.8 29.6 5 BULLISH -26.9
MBPFF Mitchells & Butlers plc $2.5B 10.1 6.6 6.0 7.2 3.0 6 BULLISH 20.3
PTLO Portillo's Inc. $310M 21.5 3.0 3.7 3.5 2.9 4 BULLISH -24.4
WING Wingstop Inc. $3.3B 29.2 -16.0 39.4 16.9 7.6 5 BULLISH -52.2
BLMN Bloomin' Brands, Inc. $790M 28.4 6.7 13.3 3.1 7.9 6 BULLISH 13.8
ALSSF Alsea, S.A.B. de C.V. $2.1B 22.8 19.7 9.4 2.5 -1.8 6 BULLISH -3.3
SGLOF Food & Life Companies Ltd. $7.7B 39.1 29.6 -1212.6 6.5 -11394.2 6 LEAN BULL 90.0
JDWPY J D Wetherspoon plc $1.4B 18.1 17.1 6.3 3.6 -8.9 6 NEUTRAL 27.2
BH Biglari Holdings Inc. $1.3B -39.8 -5.3 4.0 36.8 7.5 4 NEUTRAL 2.8
SKLYF Skylark Holdings Co., Ltd. $2.4B 42.3 10.5 7.9 4.2 11.9 7 NEUTRAL 0.0
DMZPY Domino's Pizza Enterprises Limited $1.6B -15.2 -24.1 6.2 -18.5 17.8 5 LEAN BEAR 52.3
SSPPF SSP Group plc $1.9B -49.9 -33.2 4.6 -0.9 36.3 5 LEAN BEAR 17.1
MDNDF McDonald's Holdings Company (Japan), Ltd. $6.4B 31.1 13.4 16.8 8.6 0.5 7 LEAN BEAR 13.9
SHAK Shake Shack Inc. $2.6B 65.7 7.7 9.3 3.8 17.3 7 LEAN BEAR -29.7
DPUKY Domino's Pizza Group plc $1.1B 14.6 -72.5 17.2 8.7 5.8 6 LEAN BEAR 7.5
MTYFF MTY Food Group Inc. $520M 6.6 12.8 8.6 8.9 -3.3 7 LEAN BEAR -8.7
CAKE The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated $5.4B 24.3 38.8 7.7 6.6 5.7 7 LEAN BEAR 96.7
ELROF Elior Group S.A. $840M 6.9 7.6 13.5 0.7 69.1 6 LEAN BEAR 0.0
JBFCY Jollibee Foods Corporation $2.5B 16.4 12.8 6.7 4.0 10.1 5 BEARISH -38.9
EAT Brinker International, Inc. $7.7B 17.6 119.6 24.9 8.5 7.9 8 BEARISH 54.6
ARHOF AmRest Holdings SE $1.8B 104.3 1.3 2.1 0.5 -2.4 6 BEARISH 0.0
PC Premium Catering (Holdings) Limited $270M — — — — — — BEARISH -3.1
HDL SUPER HI INTERNATIONAL HOLDING Ltd. American Depositary Shares $610M 51.2 8.1 19.9 -0.9 42.3 6 BEARISH -43.9
LOCO El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. $440M 12.4 11.8 7.2 9.9 4.4 8 BEARISH 54.5
CAVA CAVA Group, Inc. $6.2B 90.6 8.3 7.6 6.2 26.8 4 BEARISH -18.5
JMKE Jersey Mike's Subs Inc. $3.9B — — — — — — BEARISH —
WEN The Wendy's Company $1.2B 9.3 108.0 5.4 5.7 -1.0 7 BEARISH -30.5
ARCO Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. $1.7B 5.8 36.4 8.7 3.4 10.8 9 BEARISH -2.8
BJRI BJ's Restaurants, Inc. $1.2B 29.4 10.4 5.5 4.8 3.5 7 BEARISH 74.3
CLLFF Collins Foods Limited $670M 24.4 10.7 7.9 2.0 -19.7 6 BEARISH -5.8
MRTPY Marston's PLC $480M 5.0 10.2 6.3 4.1 0.1 7 BEARISH 54.1
HDALF Haidilao International Holding Ltd. $6.2B 10.7 41.3 59.5 7.9 5.3 5 BEARISH -29.0
KRUS Kura Sushi USA, Inc. $380M -187.1 -0.9 -0.6 0.5 18.4 5 BEARISH -50.7
PZZA Papa John's International, Inc. $600M 22.3 -6.2 11.3 1.8 -5.6 4 BEARISH -66.1
FMBRY Famous Brands Limited $300M 9.1 80.0 30.6 4.1 92.0 6 BEARISH 6.4

Profile Radar

Valuation vs Profitability

Performance Comparison

Industry Market Share

FWRG vs Benchmarks

ROIC
FWRG
6.6
Industry
6.6
Gross Margin
FWRG
76.7
Industry
27.4
Op Margin
FWRG
9.5
Industry
5.8
Net Margin
FWRG
0.7
Industry
3.1
Sector
1.0
Revenue Growth
FWRG
19.3
Sector
2.8
P/E Ratio
FWRG
37.6
Sector
19.4
ROE
FWRG
2.9
Sector
4.9
Piotroski F
FWRG
7.0
Sector
5.0

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For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Data sourced from SEC filings. Privacy Terms