VST NYSE
Vistra Corp.
1W: -2.4%
1M: +6.3%
3M: +2.7%
YTD: -11.2%
1Y: -27.2%
3Y: +368.5%
5Y: +727.3%
$146.66
+4.93 (+3.48%)
Pre-Market: $147.23 (+0.57, +0.39%)
Weekly Expected Move ±9.9%
$112
$126
$140
$154
$168
Credit Risk of going bust: higher than 63% of companies Debt: 28.8% of company value Bonds: $1.54B held by 908 funds, 118 bp over Treasuries → details ▾
Of US companies ranked in the middle of the pack, about 1 in 580 filed for bankruptcy within a year (2020-2025).
If the stock fell to about $6.02 (down 96%), Vistra Corp. would be worth roughly what it owes.
Total debt $19.89B against a stock market value of $49.22B.
Distance to default 3.96 (Merton model): prices to 2026-10-27, balance sheet 2026-06-30, debt counted $11.04B (short-term plus half of long-term), stock volatility 50.6%; Altman Z'' 0.80. A ranking and a back-test, not a forecast.
Bond figures are fund-reported marks (SEC N-PORT) as of Jul 2026. How these are computed.
If the stock fell to about $6.02 (down 96%), Vistra Corp. would be worth roughly what it owes.
Total debt $19.89B against a stock market value of $49.22B.
Distance to default 3.96 (Merton model): prices to 2026-10-27, balance sheet 2026-06-30, debt counted $11.04B (short-term plus half of long-term), stock volatility 50.6%; Altman Z'' 0.80. A ranking and a back-test, not a forecast.
Bond figures are fund-reported marks (SEC N-PORT) as of Jul 2026. How these are computed.
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Supply Chain
Oct Typical
☀️
Sunny
+41.7% YTD avg
Midterm Year
☀️
Sunny
+9.3% YTD avg
2026 Now
⛈️
Stormy
Below typical
20yr Avg YTD
+41.7%
Day 206 of 252
Midterm Year YTD
+9.3%
Presidential cycle avg
2026 YTD
-11.2%
Below 20yr avg
Typical Vol
41%
Annualized
Monthly Weather Forecast
Jan
20yr
💨
+3.9%
Midterm
☁️
+0.5%
60% win
52% vol
Feb
20yr
⛈️
+1.3%
Midterm
☁️
+0.7%
40% win
47% vol
Mar
20yr
💨
+9.2%
Midterm
☀️
+6.7%
70% win
58% vol
Apr
20yr
💨
+13.7%
Midterm
☀️
+16.7%
70% win
46% vol
May
20yr
💨
+26.5%
Midterm
☀️
+23.9%
70% win
40% vol
Jun
20yr
💨
+22.9%
Midterm
☀️
+16.4%
40% win
35% vol
Jul
20yr
🌫️
+22.8%
Midterm
☀️
+17.8%
50% win
40% vol
Aug
20yr
⛅
+26.5%
Midterm
☀️
+17.6%
60% win
32% vol
Sep
20yr
💨
+38.5%
Midterm
☀️
+14.8%
70% win
38% vol
Oct
20yr
💨
+40.0%
Midterm
☀️
+10.9%
55% win
41% vol
Now:
+6.0%
Nov
20yr
💨
+51.4%
Midterm
☀️
+18.1%
60% win
39% vol
Dec
20yr
⛅
+1.5%
Midterm
🌧️
-3.2%
40% win
33% vol
Seasonality (20yr)
Updated: 2026-10-27
YTD: -11.2%