VST Smart Money
Vistra Corp.
1W: -2.4%
1M: +6.3%
3M: +2.7%
YTD: -11.2%
1Y: -27.2%
3Y: +368.5%
5Y: +727.3%
$146.66
+4.93 (+3.48%)
Weekly Expected Move ±9.9%
$112
$126
$140
$154
$168
Credit Risk of going bust: higher than 63% of companies Debt: 28.8% of company value Bonds: $1.54B held by 908 funds, 118 bp over Treasuries → details ▾
Of US companies ranked in the middle of the pack, about 1 in 580 filed for bankruptcy within a year (2020-2025).
If the stock fell to about $6.02 (down 96%), Vistra Corp. would be worth roughly what it owes.
Total debt $19.89B against a stock market value of $49.22B.
Distance to default 3.96 (Merton model): prices to 2026-10-27, balance sheet 2026-06-30, debt counted $11.04B (short-term plus half of long-term), stock volatility 50.6%; Altman Z'' 0.80. A ranking and a back-test, not a forecast.
Bond figures are fund-reported marks (SEC N-PORT) as of Jul 2026. How these are computed.
If the stock fell to about $6.02 (down 96%), Vistra Corp. would be worth roughly what it owes.
Total debt $19.89B against a stock market value of $49.22B.
Distance to default 3.96 (Merton model): prices to 2026-10-27, balance sheet 2026-06-30, debt counted $11.04B (short-term plus half of long-term), stock volatility 50.6%; Altman Z'' 0.80. A ranking and a back-test, not a forecast.
Bond figures are fund-reported marks (SEC N-PORT) as of Jul 2026. How these are computed.
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🏦 Institutional Activity
Latest: Q2 20261,546
Institutions Holding
+39 vs prior
90.0%
Ownership
+6.72%
236
New
622
Increased
540
Reduced
125
Closed
👔 Insider Trades
25 records| Date | Name | Title | Type | Shares | Price | Value | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-07 | Moldovan Kristopher E. | officer: evp and cfo | S-Sale | 20,000 | $165.00 | $3.3M | Filing |
| 2026-10-06 | HUDSON SCOTT A | officer: evp & president vistra retail | S-Sale | 22,222 | $160.14 | $3.6M | Filing |
| 2026-09-08 | Moldovan Kristopher E. | officer: evp and cfo | S-Sale | 20,000 | $151.03 | $3.0M | Filing |
| 2026-09-08 | HUDSON SCOTT A | officer: evp & president vistra retail | S-Sale | 7,841 | $152.56 | $1.2M | Filing |
| 2026-09-08 | HUDSON SCOTT A | officer: evp & president vistra retail | S-Sale | 28,826 | $151.85 | $4.4M | Filing |
| 2026-09-08 | HUDSON SCOTT A | officer: evp & president vistra retail | S-Sale | 7,777 | $150.97 | $1.2M | Filing |
| 2026-09-01 | BURKE JAMES A | officer: president and ceo | P-Purchase | 4,465 | $135.25 | $604K | Filing |
| 2026-08-31 | BURKE JAMES A | officer: president and ceo | P-Purchase | 2,200 | $135.99 | $299K | Filing |
| 2026-08-24 | BURKE JAMES A | officer: president and ceo | P-Purchase | 2,000 | $135.00 | $270K | Filing |
| 2026-06-18 | SULT JOHN R | director | S-Sale | 6,500 | $170.00 | $1.1M | Filing |
| 2026-06-18 | Acosta Arcilia | director | S-Sale | 7,500 | $170.00 | $1.3M | Filing |
| 2026-06-16 | HELM SCOTT B | director | S-Sale | 25,000 | $160.00 | $4.0M | Filing |
| 2026-06-15 | BARBAS PAUL M | director | S-Sale | 244 | $153.00 | $37K | Filing |
| 2026-06-12 | BARBAS PAUL M | director | S-Sale | 244 | $147.93 | $36K | Filing |
| 2026-06-02 | Montemayor Margaret | officer: svp, chief accounting officer | S-Sale | 4,600 | $160.00 | $736K | Filing |
| 2026-05-27 | Montemayor Margaret | officer: svp, chief accounting officer | S-Sale | 5,000 | $164.96 | $825K | Filing |
| 2026-05-15 | SULT JOHN R | director | A-Grant/Award | 1,268 | $— | $0 | Filing |
| 2026-05-15 | Crutchfield Lisa | director | A-Grant/Award | 1,268 | $— | $0 | Filing |
| 2026-05-15 | Ackermann Hilary E. | director | A-Grant/Award | 1,268 | $— | $0 | Filing |
| 2026-05-15 | Baiera Gavin R. | director | A-Grant/Award | 1,268 | $— | $0 | Filing |
| 2026-05-15 | Acosta Arcilia | director | A-Grant/Award | 1,268 | $— | $0 | Filing |
| 2026-05-15 | HELM SCOTT B | director | A-Grant/Award | 2,008 | $— | $0 | Filing |
| 2026-05-15 | Pitesa John William | director | A-Grant/Award | 1,268 | $— | $0 | Filing |
| 2026-05-15 | BARBAS PAUL M | director | A-Grant/Award | 1,268 | $— | $0 | Filing |
| 2026-05-15 | Lagacy Julie A. | director | A-Grant/Award | 1,268 | $— | $0 | Filing |
🏛️ Congressional Trades
21 records| Date | Politician | Chamber | Type | Amount | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-25 | Ro Khanna | House | Buy | $1,001 - $15,000 | Filing |
| 2026-04-13 | Ro Khanna | House | Buy | $1,001 - $15,000 | Filing |
| 2026-02-17 | Julia Letlow | House | Buy | $1,001 - $15,000 | Filing |
| 2026-02-17 | Julia Letlow | House | Buy | $1,001 - $15,000 | Filing |
| 2026-01-16 | Nancy Pelosi | House | Buy | $100,001 - $250,000 | Filing |
| 2026-01-16 | Nancy Pelosi | House | Buy | $100,001 - $250,000 | Filing |
| 2026-01-15 | Nancy Pelosi | House | Buy | $100,001 - $250,000 | Filing |
| 2025-10-30 | Lisa C. McClain | House | Sell | $1,001 - $15,000 | Filing |
| 2025-10-29 | Lisa C. McClain | House | Sell | $1,001 - $15,000 | Filing |
| 2025-06-17 | Lisa McClain | House | Buy | $1,001 - $15,000 | Filing |
| 2025-04-06 | Jefferson Shreve | House | Sell | $15,001 - $50,000 | Filing |
| 2025-03-31 | Julie Johnson | House | Sell | $1,001 - $15,000 | Filing |
| 2025-03-04 | Jefferson Shreve | House | Buy | $15,001 - $50,000 | Filing |
| 2025-02-12 | Julie Johnson | House | Buy | $1,001 - $15,000 | Filing |
| 2025-02-11 | Julie Johnson | House | Buy | $1,001 - $15,000 | Filing |
| 2025-01-14 | Nancy Pelosi | House | Buy | $500,001 - $1,000,000 | Filing |
| 2019-08-15 | Alan S. Lowenthal | House | Sell | $1,001 - $15,000 | Filing |
| 2019-03-13 | Alan S. Lowenthal | House | Buy | $1,001 - $15,000 | Filing |
| 2019-03-13 | Alan S. Lowenthal | House | Buy | $366.08 | Filing |
| 2019-03-12 | Alan S. Lowenthal | House | Buy | $412.57 | Filing |
| 2019-03-12 | Alan S. Lowenthal | House | Buy | $1,001 - $15,000 | Filing |
🏦 Top Institutional Holders
20 holders| Holder | Shares | Value | Date Reported | Filing | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BlackRock, Inc. | 29,064,465 | $4.6B | +584,124 | 2026-06-30 | Filing |
| VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC | 21,393,858 | $3.4B | -102 | 2026-06-30 | Filing |
| VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC | 16,939,291 | $2.7B | +37,073 | 2026-06-30 | Filing |
| STATE STREET CORP | 16,850,452 | $2.7B | +79,972 | 2026-06-30 | Filing |
| FMR LLC | 14,160,202 | $2.2B | -1,647,805 | 2026-06-30 | Filing |
| GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC | 9,037,395 | $1.4B | +3,724 | 2026-06-30 | Filing |
| MORGAN STANLEY | 8,880,730 | $1.4B | +623,792 | 2026-06-30 | Filing |
| NORGES BANK | 5,811,201 | $922M | +5,811,201 | 2026-06-30 | Filing |
| UBS Group AG | 5,398,501 | $856M | +800,517 | 2026-06-30 | Filing |
| GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC | 4,742,324 | $752M | +1,403,075 | 2026-06-30 | Filing |
| Invesco Ltd. | 3,713,835 | $589M | +560,123 | 2026-06-30 | Filing |
| DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LP | 3,546,461 | $563M | +109,581 | 2026-06-30 | Filing |
| JPMORGAN CHASE & CO | 3,252,881 | $528M | -4,236,776 | 2026-06-30 | Filing |
| MASSACHUSETTS FINANCIAL SERVICES CO /MA | 3,160,826 | $502M | -790,963 | 2026-06-30 | Filing |
| NORTHERN TRUST CORP | 3,022,047 | $479M | -125,895 | 2026-06-30 | Filing |
| BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE | 2,952,496 | $468M | -31,398 | 2026-06-30 | Filing |
| FRANKLIN RESOURCES INC | 2,685,874 | $426M | +94,547 | 2026-06-30 | Filing |
| Capital World Investors | 2,574,260 | $408M | +40,007 | 2026-06-30 | Filing |
| CANADA PENSION PLAN INVESTMENT BOARD | 2,449,824 | $389M | -733,769 | 2026-06-30 | Filing |
| Bank of New York Mellon Corp | 2,407,727 | $382M | +21,788 | 2026-06-30 | Filing |