AA NYSE
Alcoa Corporation
1W: -7.2%
1M: -9.7%
3M: -12.6%
YTD: -31.6%
1Y: -3.4%
3Y: +64.3%
5Y: -29.2%
$39.87
+1.26 (+3.28%)
Weekly Expected Move ±4.3%
$35
$36
$38
$40
$41
Credit Risk of going bust: higher than 67% of companies Debt: 32.1% of company value Bonds: $294.9M held by 181 funds, 160 bp over Treasuries → details ▾
Of US companies ranked in the middle of the pack, about 1 in 580 filed for bankruptcy within a year (2020-2025).
If the stock fell to about $1.73 (down 96%), Alcoa Corporation would be worth roughly what it owes.
Total debt $4.82B against a stock market value of $10.21B.
Distance to default 3.68 (Merton model): prices to 2026-10-26, balance sheet 2026-09-30, debt counted $2.41B (short-term plus half of long-term), stock volatility 53.2%; Altman Z 1.86. A ranking and a back-test, not a forecast.
Bond figures are fund-reported marks (SEC N-PORT) as of Jul 2026. How these are computed.
If the stock fell to about $1.73 (down 96%), Alcoa Corporation would be worth roughly what it owes.
Total debt $4.82B against a stock market value of $10.21B.
Distance to default 3.68 (Merton model): prices to 2026-10-26, balance sheet 2026-09-30, debt counted $2.41B (short-term plus half of long-term), stock volatility 53.2%; Altman Z 1.86. A ranking and a back-test, not a forecast.
Bond figures are fund-reported marks (SEC N-PORT) as of Jul 2026. How these are computed.
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📊 Key Metrics
TTM$14B
Revenue
+7.9% YoY
$2B
Net Income
+33.3% YoY
$758M
Free Cash Flow
+16.4% YoY
23.8%
Gross Margin
15.7%
Op. Margin
13.0%
Net Margin
💰 Income Flow
How revenue becomes profit💵 Cash Flow
Where cash goes🏦 Balance Sheet
Assets = Liabilities + Equity📈 Financial Health
Profitability
ROE20.9%
ROA8.4%
ROIC17.4%
Valuation
P/E6.7
P/B1.3
EV/EBITDA4.8
Leverage
Debt/Equity0.58
Current Ratio2.31
Interest Cov.13.6x
Quality Scores
Piotroski F6/9
Altman Z1.91
Beneish M-2.65