AA NYSE
Alcoa Corporation
1W: -7.2%
1M: -9.7%
3M: -12.6%
YTD: -31.6%
1Y: -3.4%
3Y: +64.3%
5Y: -29.2%
$39.88
+1.28 (+3.32%)
Weekly Expected Move ±4.3%
$35
$36
$38
$40
$41
Credit Risk of going bust: higher than 67% of companies Debt: 32.1% of company value Bonds: $294.9M held by 181 funds, 160 bp over Treasuries → details ▾
Of US companies ranked in the middle of the pack, about 1 in 580 filed for bankruptcy within a year (2020-2025).
If the stock fell to about $1.73 (down 96%), Alcoa Corporation would be worth roughly what it owes.
Total debt $4.82B against a stock market value of $10.21B.
Distance to default 3.68 (Merton model): prices to 2026-10-26, balance sheet 2026-09-30, debt counted $2.41B (short-term plus half of long-term), stock volatility 53.2%; Altman Z 1.86. A ranking and a back-test, not a forecast.
Bond figures are fund-reported marks (SEC N-PORT) as of Jul 2026. How these are computed.
If the stock fell to about $1.73 (down 96%), Alcoa Corporation would be worth roughly what it owes.
Total debt $4.82B against a stock market value of $10.21B.
Distance to default 3.68 (Merton model): prices to 2026-10-26, balance sheet 2026-09-30, debt counted $2.41B (short-term plus half of long-term), stock volatility 53.2%; Altman Z 1.86. A ranking and a back-test, not a forecast.
Bond figures are fund-reported marks (SEC N-PORT) as of Jul 2026. How these are computed.
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Revenue by Segment (5-Year Trend)
Income Trends
Revenue
$12.7B
+4.5% ▲
5Y CAGR: +6.3%
Gross Profit
$1.7B
+15.4% ▲
5Y CAGR: +17.7%
Operating Income
$971M
-16.7% ▼
5Y CAGR: +12.8%
Net Income
$1.1B
+1813.3% ▲
EPS (Diluted)
$4.44
+1485.7% ▲
EBITDA
$1.9B
+71.5% ▲
5Y CAGR: +13.9%
Profit Margins
Year-over-Year Growth
View Full Income Statement
| Line Item | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $12.4B | $12.8B | $10.7B | $12.2B | $12.7B |
| YoY Growth | +32.7% | +2.6% | -16.1% | +13.8% | +4.5% |
| Cost of Revenue | $9.8B | $10.8B | $10.5B | $10.7B | $11.0B |
| Gross Profit | $2.6B | $1.9B | $241M | $1.5B | $1.7B |
| Gross Margin | 21.1% | 15.1% | 2.3% | 12.3% | 13.6% |
| R&D Expenses | $31M | $32M | $39M | $57M | $24M |
| SG&A Expenses | $227M | $204M | $226M | $275M | $299M |
| Operating Expenses | $258M | $236M | $265M | $332M | $758M |
| Operating Income | $2.4B | $1.7B | -$24M | $1.2B | $971M |
| Operating Margin | 19.0% | 13.3% | -0.2% | 9.6% | 7.6% |
| Interest Expense | $195M | $106M | $107M | $156M | $158M |
| Income Before Tax | $1.2B | $702M | -$584M | $289M | $1.1B |
| Tax Expense | $629M | $664M | $189M | $265M | -$49M |
| Net Income | $429M | -$123M | -$651M | $60M | $1.1B |
| Net Margin | 3.4% | -1.0% | -6.1% | 0.5% | 9.0% |
| EPS (Diluted) | $2.26 | $-0.57 | $-3.65 | $0.28 | $4.44 |
| EBITDA | $2.1B | $1.4B | $155M | $1.1B | $1.9B |
| Shares Outstanding | 190M | 181M | 178M | 214M | 263M |